# Octagon

> AI-powered market intelligence platform that seamlessly integrates public and private market intelligence in a single API.

## Description

Octagon is a market intelligence platform for prediction markets, public equities, and private companies. Prediction markets are exchanges where traders buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, economic indicators, sports, and culture — so each contract's price reflects the crowd's implied probability of that outcome. Octagon's prediction-market coverage spans Kalshi and Polymarket, pairing those live odds with research that weighs model-estimated probabilities against the market price. It publishes continuously updated market research, news analysis, answer-library explainers, and API documentation for human readers and AI agents.

Octagon provides real-time data on public equities, private market deals, company fundamentals, filings, investor networks, and prediction market research. This site features continuously updated research reports on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets with cited sources and probability analysis.

Key features:
- Research reports on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market events
- Model probability vs market price comparisons
- Cited sources with automatic updates
- API and MCP access for programmatic use

## Attribution

- When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute the material to Octagon.
- Link to the Octagon source URL for the specific page used as the source.
- Preserve nearby source links and cited references when they are available.
- If a specific page or report is used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.

## Docs

- [Markets Index](/markets/): Browse all prediction market categories and reports
- [News](/news/): AI-assisted prediction market analysis reviewed by Octagon analysts, with cited sources, updated daily.
- [Answer Library](/answer-library): Curated answers on prediction market fundamentals and strategy
- [API Documentation](https://docs.octagonai.co/): Octagon API reference
- [MCP Server](https://docs.octagonai.co/guide/mcp-server.html): Model Context Protocol integration

## News

- [News Hub](/news/): AI-assisted prediction market analysis reviewed by Octagon analysts, with cited sources, updated daily.

## Categories

- [Aliens](/markets/aliens/)
- [Awards](/markets/awards/)
- [Bitcoin](/markets/bitcoin/)
- [Business](/markets/business/)
- [California Midterm](/markets/california-midterm/)
- [Climate and Weather](/markets/climate-and-weather/)
- [Commodities](/markets/commodities/)
- [Companies](/markets/companies/)
- [Crypto](/markets/crypto/)
- [Culture](/markets/culture/)
- [Davos](/markets/davos/)
- [Economics](/markets/economics/)
- [Economy](/markets/economy/)
- [Elections](/markets/elections/)
- [Entertainment](/markets/entertainment/)
- [Ethiopia](/markets/ethiopia/)
- [Exotics](/markets/exotics/)
- [Fed](/markets/fed/)
- [Finance](/markets/finance/)
- [Financials](/markets/financials/)
- [Florida Midterm](/markets/florida-midterm/)
- [fomc](/markets/fomc/)
- [Formula 1](/markets/formula-1/)
- [French Election](/markets/french-election/)
- [Geopolitics](/markets/geopolitics/)
- [HFC](/markets/hfc/)
- [Iran](/markets/iran/)
- [Iran Regime](/markets/iran-regime/)
- [LA](/markets/la/)
- [Main Election](/markets/main-election/)
- [Mentions](/markets/mentions/)
- [Middle East](/markets/middle-east/)
- [Military Strikes](/markets/military-strikes/)
- [MLS](/markets/mls/)
- [NBA Finals](/markets/nba-finals/)
- [Pandemics](/markets/pandemics/)
- [Parent For Derivative](/markets/parent-for-derivative/)
- [Politics](/markets/politics/)
- [President](/markets/president/)
- [putin](/markets/putin/)
- [Rewards 20, 4.5, 50](/markets/rewards-20-4-5-50/)
- [Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec](/markets/rewards-200-4-5-50-deprec/)
- [Reza Pahlavi](/markets/reza-pahlavi/)
- [Science and Technology](/markets/science-and-technology/)
- [shah](/markets/shah/)
- [Soccer](/markets/soccer/)
- [Sports](/markets/sports/)
- [Trump](/markets/trump/)
- [Trump-Machado](/markets/trump-machado/)
- [United States](/markets/united-states/)
- [US Election](/markets/us-election/)

## Reports

- [Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028](/markets/united-states/united-states/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028.md) (0.5%) | Volume: $1,251,349,692.87: Model sees 0.5% probability for this outcome vs 0c market price, implying a 200x payout multiple.
  - Q1: How will the DNC's proposed 2028 primary calendar, starting with South Carolina, influence the campaign viability and strategy of potential candidates like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris?
  - Q2: What concrete evidence from fundraising reports and early polling (2025-2026) supports Gavin Newsom's status as a leading contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
  - Q3: How do the executive records of Governors Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) compare as models for a potential 2028 presidential campaign?
  - Q4: What trends can be identified from Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings by undeclared potential 2028 candidates like Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg through their PACs and other political committees?
  - Q5: What is the viability of Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 candidacy, based on his national profile and performance in the 2020 primary?
- [Republican Presidential Nominee 2028](/markets/united-states/united-states/republican-presidential-nominee-2028.md) (0.6%) | Volume: $684,716,669.27: Model sees 0.7% for Trump Jr. (vs 1c market); Trump Sr.'s reported Vance preference creates a ~167x payout gap.
  - Q1: How might the November 2026 midterm results shift momentum between leading contenders JD Vance and Marco Rubio?
  - Q2: What concrete evidence from late 2026 supports the market consensus of JD Vance as the GOP frontrunner?
  - Q3: How do JD Vance and Marco Rubio compare on key economic and foreign policy positions relevant to the 2028 primary?
  - Q4: What is the most plausible path for Ron DeSantis to re-emerge as a top-tier contender by mid-2027?
  - Q5: Which factions of the Republican party and what major donor networks are aligning with Marco Rubio's potential 2028 campaign?
- [Presidential Election Winner 2028](/markets/president/president/presidential-election-winner-2028.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $676,765,811.64: Model estimates 0.5% probability versus 0c market price, implying a +0.4% gap and significant undervaluation for a 1000x payout.
  - Q1: How do Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris's respective approval ratings and perceived policy accomplishments within the current administration compare as a foundation for a 2028 run?
  - Q2: What early polling data and fundraising reports from 2026 support the market consensus of JD Vance as a leading Republican contender?
  - Q3: Which potential candidates, such as Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro, stand to benefit most from the DNC's proposed 2028 early primary state schedule?
  - Q4: What evidence from national media appearances and out-of-state fundraising suggests Gavin Newsom is successfully building a national profile beyond California for 2028?
  - Q5: How might a formal 2028 campaign declaration by Donald Trump before 2027 impact the 'shadow campaign' activities of other potential Republican candidates like Marco Rubio?
- [F1 Drivers' Champion](/markets/sports/sports/f1-drivers-champion.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $200,697,789.83: Model estimates 2.1% vs 0c market, a +2.0% gap given RBPT's 2026 power unit challenges.
  - Q1: How does the post-upgrade performance of Mercedes compare to rivals McLaren and Ferrari heading into the second half of the 2026 season?
  - Q2: What historical precedents exist for a driver overcoming a 50+ point deficit with 12 races remaining in a Formula 1 season?
  - Q3: Which engine manufacturers are most exposed to reliability risks under the complex 2026 power unit regulations?
  - Q4: How do Kimi Antonelli's and Lewis Hamilton's 2026 performances compare on key metrics like tire management, wet weather driving, and qualifying consistency?
  - Q5: How might the potential relocation of the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs impact the championship battle between the leading teams?
- [2028 Democratic presidential nominee](/markets/elections/2028/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee.md) (0.6%) | Volume: $175,953,888.81: Mark Kelly's 1c market price matches 0.6% model probability, lacking specific evidence for his nomination.
  - Q1: How might the DNC's revamped 2028 primary calendar, which prioritizes states like South Carolina and Nevada, affect the nomination prospects of early frontrunners Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris?
  - Q2: What early polling data and fundraising metrics from 2025-2026 support Gavin Newsom's position as the prediction market favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
  - Q3: How do Gavin Newsom's and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's platforms appeal to the progressive versus moderate wings of the Democratic party ahead of the 2028 primaries?
  - Q4: What specific legislative achievements or key endorsements before 2028 could propel governors like Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro from second-tier contenders to primary frontrunners?
  - Q5: How does Kamala Harris's potential 2028 bid compare to the historical success rates of other sitting or former Vice Presidents, such as Al Gore and George H.W. Bush, in securing their party's nomination?
- [Netanyahu out by...?](/markets/geopolitics/geopolitics/netanyahu-out-by.md) (39.0%) | Volume: $123,899,281.14: Market prices Netanyahu's exit at 39c, exceeding the 37.5% model estimate, as October 2026 polls project an electoral loss.
  - Q1: What are the most likely non-electoral catalysts that could force Netanyahu from office before the October 2026 election?
  - Q2: How do the electoral platforms of Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot compare on the critical issues of the Gaza conflict and future peace negotiations?
  - Q3: What do the latest Q3 2026 polls from sources like Kan News and Channel 12 indicate about the potential seat distribution between Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition bloc?
  - Q4: Which Israeli polling firms have the most reliable track records from recent elections, and what are their current 2026 projections for major parties like Likud and Yashar?
  - Q5: How might a significant shift in Israeli public opinion on the Gaza peace plan influence the electoral fortunes of the Likud and Yashar parties by October 2026?
- [Brazil Presidential Election](/markets/politics/politics/brazil-presidential-election.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $119,092,023.96: Bolsonaro's 0.1% model probability aligns with 0c market, reflecting coalition struggles and low polling.
  - Q1: How might the outcomes of party conventions between July and August 2026 affect the coalition strategies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a Bolsonaro-backed candidate?
  - Q2: What does polling data from major Brazilian institutes like Datafolha and IPEC indicate about a head-to-head matchup between Lula and a leading opposition figure like Flávio Bolsonaro or Tarcísio de Freitas?
  - Q3: How do the proposed economic policies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a key challenger like Ronaldo Caiado compare on inflation control and fiscal management?
  - Q4: Which specific economic indicators in the first half of 2026, such as inflation or unemployment rates, pose the greatest risk to President Lula's reelection campaign?
  - Q5: What evidence supports the viability of a 'third-way' candidate, such as Romeu Zema or Renan Santos, disrupting the Lula-Bolsonaro polarization before the election?
- [Next French Presidential Election](/markets/french-election/french-election/next-french-presidential-election.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $117,249,568.41: Model estimates 0.5% probability vs 0c market price (+0.4pp gap), despite Bardella's strong early polling and youth appeal.
  - Q1: What is the timeline and potential impact of Marine Le Pen's legal appeals on her eligibility for the 2027 election?
  - Q2: How do the early 2027 economic platforms of Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal compare?
  - Q3: What do early polling aggregates indicate about Jordan Bardella's support base relative to Marine Le Pen's historical performance?
  - Q4: Which French polling organizations provide the most reliable head-to-head matchup data for the 2027 presidential election cycle?
  - Q5: Which coalition strategies or key policy announcements could unify the French left behind a candidate like François Ruffin or Raphaël Glucksmann before April 2027?
- [Venezuela leader end of 2026?](/markets/trump-machado/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $95,108,007.51: Model and market both price this outcome at 0.1%/0c, implying 0% true probability and no probability gap.
  - Q1: What political or economic catalysts could cause the Trump administration to withdraw support for Delcy Rodríguez before the end of 2026?
  - Q2: What evidence supports the stability of Delcy Rodríguez's interim government and the U.S.-led transition plan through late 2026?
  - Q3: How do María Corina Machado and Delcy Rodríguez compare in terms of domestic popularity, military backing, and international recognition?
  - Q4: Are there reliable polls tracking public support for Delcy Rodríguez versus María Corina Machado within Venezuela since January 2026?
  - Q5: What actions from key Venezuelan military figures, like Vladimir Padrino López, could signal a challenge to the U.S.-led interim government?
- [Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?](/markets/iran-regime/iran-regime/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by.md) (2.0%) | Volume: $69,657,941.78: Market 2c implies 2.0% versus model's 1.5%, overvaluing seizure due to Kharg's strong defenses and risks.
  - Q1: What are the primary military and diplomatic scenarios that could lead to a change in control of Kharg Island before year-end 2026?
  - Q2: What statements and actions from the Trump administration since July 2026 signal a credible intent to seize Kharg Island?
  - Q3: How do U.S. amphibious assault capabilities in the Persian Gulf compare to Iran's established coastal defenses on Kharg Island?
  - Q4: What public satellite and maritime data can be used to track military build-up and oil export activity near Kharg Island through Q4 2026?
  - Q5: What current intelligence assesses Iran's capacity to defend Kharg Island against a direct U.S. military assault?
- [Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?](/markets/parent-for-derivative/parent-for-derivative/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027.md) (1.9%) | Volume: $64,935,157.53: At 2c (1.9% probability), market and model align, reflecting rejections of specific return dates.
  - Q1: What is the official doctrinal stance of major global Christian bodies, like the Catholic Church and the World Council of Churches, on setting specific dates for Christ's return?
  - Q2: What specific geopolitical events or technological advancements before 2027 are cited by prominent eschatological commentators as potential 'signs of the times'?
  - Q3: How do scriptural interpretations of Matthew 24 differ between mainstream academic institutions, such as Dallas Theological Seminary, and popular prophecy-focused ministries?
  - Q4: What were the societal and media impacts of major failed apocalyptic predictions of the 21st century, such as Harold Camping's 2011 prophecy?
  - Q5: How have the market odds behaved in other low-probability, high-impact 'fringe' contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as their resolution dates approached?
- [Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?](/markets/aliens/aliens/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by.md) (6.0%) | Volume: $64,043,707.41: Market (6c) suggests a 16.7x payout versus 2.7% model, contrasting US officials' denials of alien evidence.
  - Q1: What specific provisions in pending 2026 legislation, like the UAP Transparency Act, could legally compel an official U.S. government confirmation of alien existence?
  - Q2: What is the consensus assessment from the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) and the broader scientific community regarding physical evidence of non-human technology?
  - Q3: How do the public demands for UAP transparency from Congressional leaders like Tim Burchett and Chuck Schumer contrast with the official findings and pace of disclosure from the Pentagon's AARO?
  - Q4: Beyond legislation, what executive actions or national security events could trigger an unscheduled, official disclosure by the White House or Department of Defense before 2027?
  - Q5: What are the most significant sworn testimonies from figures like David Grusch to Congress, and what official responses or refutations have they received from the Department of Defense?
- [2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?](/markets/elections/2028/2028-u-s-presidential-election-winner.md) (11.0%) | Volume: $58,306,768.67: Model estimates 15.6% probability versus an 11c market price, suggesting a 9.1x payout multiple.
  - Q1: How will the 2026 midterm election results reshape the field of likely 2028 presidential candidates?
  - Q2: What is the strategic rationale for a potential Gretchen Whitmer candidacy, based on her electoral performance in Michigan and positioning within the Democratic party?
  - Q3: How do potential Democratic frontrunners Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris compare in their appeal to key primary voting blocs?
  - Q4: Which state-level results from the 2026 midterm elections will provide the most predictive data for modeling the 2028 Electoral College map?
  - Q5: What early polling and fundraising metrics support the market's pricing of J.D. Vance as a frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination?
- [2027 Pro Football Champion](/markets/sports/football/2027-pro-football-champion.md) (1.0%) | Volume: $57,738,528.53: Market prices 1c (1.0%) for this outcome, slightly above the 0.9% model, implying a 100x payout.
  - Q1: Does the Dallas Cowboys' current Super Bowl LXI betting market valuation align with their roster analytics and projected strength of schedule for the 2026 season?
  - Q2: How might a season-ending injury to a starting quarterback on a top-5 contending team, like the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, impact the Super Bowl LXI futures market?
  - Q3: How do the defensive units of the defending champion Seattle Seahawks and the favorite Los Angeles Rams compare in pass rush efficiency and secondary depth for the 2026 season?
  - Q4: What key performance indicators and roster strengths do analytical models like ESPN's FPI cite for the Los Angeles Rams' high probability of winning Super Bowl LXI?
  - Q5: Which high-contention teams, such as the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions, possess the draft capital and salary cap space to make a significant roster upgrade before the 2026 NFL trade deadline?
- [Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?](/markets/military-strikes/military-strikes/will-the-u-s-invade-iran-before-2027.md) (18.0%) | Volume: $56,409,640.72: Market at 18c exceeds 12% model, offering 5.6x payout, given invasion challenges and AUMF limits.
  - Q1: What specific actions by Iran or its proxies, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or a direct attack on U.S. assets, could trigger a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027?
  - Q2: What is the expert consensus from think tanks like CSIS or RAND on the strategic feasibility and cost-benefit analysis of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027?
  - Q3: How do the United States' power projection capabilities compare with Iran's asymmetric and conventional defensive strategies for a potential ground conflict through 2026?
  - Q4: What publicly available satellite and maritime tracking data can be used to monitor for a U.S. military buildup consistent with a pre-invasion posture in the Persian Gulf?
  - Q5: How could the progress and outcome of the 2026 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) in the 119th Congress impact the White House's ability to launch a ground invasion?
- [2028 Republican presidential nominee](/markets/elections/2028/2028-republican-presidential-nominee.md) (1.4%) | Volume: $55,836,055.8: Model's 1.6% probability exceeds 1c market price (1.4%), suggesting undervaluation; Trump's enduring influence is key.
  - Q1: How do the gubernatorial records and national fundraising networks of Greg Abbott and Glenn Youngkin position them for a potential 2028 run?
  - Q2: What polling data and early fundraising metrics from 2025-2026 support J.D. Vance's current frontrunner status for the 2028 nomination?
  - Q3: What outcomes in the 2026 midterm elections could significantly boost or damage the presidential prospects of governors like Ron DeSantis and Sarah Huckabee Sanders?
  - Q4: How do J.D. Vance's and Marco Rubio's policy platforms and appeal to different Republican factions compare ahead of the 2028 primary?
  - Q5: How might Donald J. Trump's endorsement (or lack thereof) before the 2028 primaries act as a key catalyst for candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy or Donald Trump Jr.?
- [What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?](/markets/bitcoin/bitcoin/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026.md) (1.8%) | Volume: $51,394,449.99: Octagon's 0.5% probability trails the 1.8% market, as late 2025 on-chain data signaled substantial weakness.
  - Q1: What key legislative milestones for the CLARITY Act in H1 2026 could significantly impact institutional investment frameworks for Bitcoin?
  - Q2: Does on-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant for late 2025 support the bullish case for a 2026 price surge, or does it signal underlying market weakness?
  - Q3: How do the 2026 Bitcoin price models from CF Benchmarks and Amberdata compare in their core assumptions and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors?
  - Q4: What public filings and datasets provide the most reliable view of corporate treasury balances, like those of MicroStrategy, and their potential market impact leading into 2026?
  - Q5: What specific labor market data or Federal Reserve policy statements in H1 2026 could trigger significant capital flows into or out of spot Bitcoin ETFs?
- [California Governor winner? (Person)](/markets/elections/us-elections/california-governor-winner-person.md) (95.6%) | Volume: $49,706,500.47: Model's 96.0% for Democratic win aligns with 96c market (+0.4% gap, 1.0x payout); Becerra leads strongly.
  - Q1: What key debates or campaign developments between the June primary and the November 2026 general election could significantly alter polling between Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton?
  - Q2: What do California's post-primary voter registration numbers and historical turnout models indicate for a Becerra vs. Hilton general election matchup?
  - Q3: How do Xavier Becerra's and Steve Hilton's policy platforms compare on the key issues of housing, crime, and the state budget?
  - Q4: What does fundraising data from the post-primary reporting period reveal about the financial health and donor bases of the Becerra and Hilton campaigns?
  - Q5: Which major political figures, interest groups, and newspaper editorial boards have endorsed Xavier Becerra versus Steve Hilton since the June 2026 primary?
- [How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?](/markets/rewards-200-4-5-50-deprec/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026.md) (88.6%) | Volume: $46,587,328.08: At 89c, the market prices no 2026 Fed cuts higher than the 81.6% model estimate, implying overvaluation.
  - Q1: What specific inflation and unemployment data in Q4 2026 could trigger a dovish pivot from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh?
  - Q2: What statements and voting records from FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh support the market's expectation of zero rate cuts in 2026?
  - Q3: How does the monetary policy approach of the FOMC under Kevin Warsh in 2026 differ from the committee's approach under Jerome Powell in the post-pandemic era?
  - Q4: Which global economic or geopolitical shocks in late 2026 could force the Federal Reserve to implement emergency rate cuts?
  - Q5: What does the voting breakdown of the July 2026 FOMC meeting reveal about the committee's balance between hawks and doves?
- [Pro Football: 2027 Champion](/markets/sports/sports/pro-football-2027-champion.md) (4.3%) | Volume: $42,921,245.23: Model's 4.5% probability (0.2pp above market's 4.3c) lacks explicit championship run support.
  - Q1: What roster strengths and salary cap outlook justify the Los Angeles Rams' position as the betting market favorite to win Super Bowl LXI?
  - Q2: How do the offensive strategies and quarterback dependencies of the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys compare heading into the 2026 season?
  - Q3: Which teams, such as the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs, are best positioned to make a significant move at the 2026 NFL trade deadline to bolster their championship hopes?
  - Q4: Beyond traditional power rankings, what advanced predictive models and datasets are available to track team performance and championship probabilities throughout the 2026-27 NFL season?
  - Q5: What underlying data supports analytical models like Opta favoring the Dallas Cowboys, in contrast to their longer odds in traditional betting markets?
- [All Reports](https://www.octagonai.co/markets.md)

## Answers

- [Are prediction markets accurate compared to polls or expert forecasts?](/answers/are-prediction-markets-accurate-compared-to-polls-or-expert-forecasts.md): Prediction markets are often as accurate as polls and expert forecasts, especially close to resolution. Their strength comes from incentives, real-time updates, and the ability to aggregate diverse information into a single probability.
- [Best Fintool Alternatives in 2026](/answers/best-fintool-alternatives-in-2026.md): The best Fintool alternative depends on which parts of Fintool you actually used, especially filings research, transcript analysis, metric extraction, and finance-oriented AI workflows.
- [Best Kalshi alternatives in 2026](/answers/best-kalshi-alternatives-in-2026.md): The best Kalshi alternatives in 2026 include Polymarket, Robinhood event contracts, PredictIt, and sports-focused apps for trading, plus research layers like Octagon that work across every venue.
- [Best prediction market platforms for investors in 2026](/answers/best-prediction-market-platforms-for-investors.md): The best prediction market platforms for investors in 2026 — Kalshi, Polymarket, Metaculus, and Octagon — compared by use case: regulated trading, active event markets, forecasting consensus, and investor research.
- [Best prediction market tools in 2026](/answers/best-prediction-market-tools-in-2026.md): The best prediction market tools in 2026 fall into three layers: trading venues, data and intelligence platforms, and monitoring or alerting tools. The right pick depends on whether you want to trade, research, or automate.
- [Can I hedge real-world risk using prediction markets?](/answers/can-i-hedge-real-world-risk-using-prediction-markets.md): Yes—prediction markets can hedge exposure to discrete outcomes (policy changes, rate decisions, approvals, disruptions). The hedge works best when the contract outcome closely matches your real-world exposure and timing.
- [Can prediction markets be used to forecast geopolitical events?](/answers/can-prediction-markets-be-used-to-forecast-geopolitical-events.md): Yes—prediction markets are especially useful for geopolitical forecasting because they aggregate fragmented, asymmetric information that is difficult to model formally.
- [Can prediction markets help forecast IPO timing?](/answers/can-prediction-markets-help-forecast-ipo-timing.md): Prediction markets can sharpen IPO-timing forecasts by attaching live probabilities to "files by," "prices by," or "debuts before" questions, best used alongside an IPO tracker and filing flow.
- [Fintool vs Octagon: Which research workflow fits better?](/answers/fintool-vs-octagon-ai-which-research-workflow-fits-better.md): Fintool was built around filings, transcripts, and finance-focused AI research. This comparison shows how Octagon serves teams doing the same kind of public-company research.
- [How are contracts settled on Polymarket compared to Kalshi?](/answers/how-are-contracts-settled-on-polymarket-compared-to-kalshi.md): Kalshi contracts settle based on predefined, regulator-approved data sources, while Polymarket contracts rely on oracle mechanisms and platform-defined resolution processes.
- [How do analysts use prediction markets in company or sector research?](/answers/how-do-analysts-use-prediction-markets-in-company-or-sector-research.md): Analysts use prediction markets as a probability layer over fundamental research, weighting scenarios, timing catalysts, stress-testing theses, and surfacing sector read-throughs from a single event.
- [How do fees and platform rules affect prediction market prices?](/answers/how-do-fees-and-platform-rules-affect-prediction-market-prices.md): Fees and platform rules directly affect pricing by widening spreads, discouraging arbitrage, and biasing prices away from theoretical probabilities.
- [How do I calculate expected value (EV) for a trade in a prediction market?](/answers/how-do-i-calculate-expected-value-for-a-trade-in-a-prediction-market.md): EV compares what you expect to win on average vs what you pay. For a $1 "Yes" contract: EV = (your probability × $1) − price − fees.
- [How do I handle correlated markets and avoid double-counting the same thesis?](/answers/how-do-i-handle-correlated-markets-and-avoid-double-counting-the-same-thesis.md): Correlated markets move together because they share drivers (e.g., economic data affecting both rates and elections). If you hold multiple correlated positions, you may be taking much more risk than you realize.
- [How do I read a prediction market price as a probability?](/answers/how-do-i-read-a-prediction-market-price-as-a-probability.md): For a standard binary contract, the price roughly equals the implied probability.
- [How do investors use prediction markets for event-driven investing?](/answers/how-do-investors-use-prediction-markets-for-event-driven-investing.md): Event-driven investors use prediction markets to put live probabilities on catalysts like approvals, deals, and data releases, to time entries and exits, and to hedge discrete outcomes.
- [How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ in regulation and legal structure?](/answers/how-do-polymarket-and-kalshi-differ-in-regulation-and-legal-structure.md): Polymarket and Kalshi operate under fundamentally different legal structures. Polymarket is a crypto-based platform operating outside U.S. financial regulation, while Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- [How do prediction markets differ from options markets?](/answers/how-do-prediction-markets-differ-from-options-markets.md): Prediction markets pay a fixed amount on a discrete yes or no outcome, while options derive value from an underlying asset's price and pay along a continuous range. The payoff shape is the core difference.
- [How do prediction markets react to Fed decisions, CPI, and jobs reports?](/answers/how-do-prediction-markets-react-to-fed-decisions-cpi-and-jobs-reports.md): Prediction markets reprice scheduled macro releases like FOMC decisions, CPI, and jobs reports in seconds, often before the cash and rates markets fully digest the print.
- [How do you build alerts for major probability changes?](/answers/how-do-you-build-alerts-for-major-probability-changes.md): Build probability alerts by defining a baseline, a trigger threshold, and a delivery channel, then filtering for liquidity and a catalyst so you are notified on real moves, not noise.
- [How do you monitor prediction market moves automatically?](/answers/how-do-you-monitor-prediction-market-moves-automatically.md): You monitor prediction markets automatically by pulling live probabilities through an API or MCP server, defining the contracts and thresholds you care about, and routing changes into a feed, dashboard, or agent.
- [How does settlement and resolution work, and why do rules matter more than headlines?](/answers/how-does-settlement-and-resolution-work-and-why-do-rules-matter-more-than-headlines.md): Prediction markets settle based on the contract's written resolution criteria, not what people "meant" or what headlines imply. A market can resolve against popular intuition if the rules are strict or the outcome is defined narrowly.
- [How should investors use prediction markets alongside traditional research?](/answers/how-should-investors-use-prediction-markets-alongside-traditional-research.md): Prediction markets work best as a complement to traditional research—providing probabilistic context, timing signals, and consensus checks rather than standalone answers.
- [How to Migrate from Fintool to Octagon](/answers/how-to-migrate-from-fintool-to-octagon-ai.md): A practical migration guide for former Fintool users who want to rebuild their finance and research workflow inside Octagon with minimal friction.
- [How to use prediction markets for earnings season research](/answers/how-to-use-prediction-markets-for-earnings-season-research.md): Prediction markets give earnings-season researchers a live, probability-weighted read on outcomes like beats, guidance cuts, and price reactions, complementing estimates and call transcripts.
- [Kalshi vs Octagon: prediction market exchange vs investor research](/answers/octagon-vs-kalshi.md): Kalshi is a regulated US prediction market exchange for trading event contracts. Octagon is a prediction market research platform that helps investors interpret market prices and turn them into actionable research.
- [Metaculus vs Octagon: forecasting platform vs prediction market research](/answers/octagon-vs-metaculus.md): Metaculus is a forecasting platform focused on consensus probabilities. Octagon is a prediction market research platform for investors who want to interpret forecasts and event signals in a market intelligence workflow.
- [Polymarket vs Kalshi: Differences, Regulation, Liquidity & Use Cases](/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi.md): Polymarket vs Kalshi: side-by-side comparison of regulation, contracts, US access, fees, liquidity, and resolution rules. Updated for 2026.
- [Polymarket vs Octagon: prediction market platform vs investor research](/answers/octagon-vs-polymarket.md): Polymarket is a prediction market platform for trading and following event markets. Octagon is a prediction market research platform that helps investors interpret those signals and turn them into market intelligence.
- [What are the most common mistakes people make when using prediction markets?](/answers/what-are-the-most-common-mistakes-people-make-when-using-prediction-markets.md): The most common mistakes are overtrusting prices, ignoring liquidity and rules, and confusing probability with certainty.
- [What does a prediction market actually measure: belief, probability, or truth?](/answers/what-does-a-prediction-market-actually-measure-belief-probability-or-truth.md): Prediction markets measure tradeable belief, not objective truth. Prices reflect what participants are willing to risk capital on under current information and constraints.
- [What does market manipulation look like in prediction markets, and how can I spot it?](/answers/what-does-market-manipulation-look-like-in-prediction-markets-and-how-can-i-spot-it.md): Manipulation typically looks like pushing the price with aggressive trades to shape perception, then reversing later. You can often spot it through sudden price jumps without new info, thin order books, and quick mean reversion.
- [What happened to Fintool? Options for former users](/answers/what-happened-to-fintool-options-for-former-users.md): Fintool's homepage now states that Microsoft has acquired Fintool, which changes the product story from independent startup to acquisition and transition.
- [What is a prediction market, and how is it different from betting?](/answers/what-is-a-prediction-market.md): A prediction market is a marketplace where prices represent the crowd's implied probability of a future event.
- [What is arbitrage in prediction markets, and when is it actually possible?](/answers/what-is-arbitrage-in-prediction-markets-and-when-is-it-actually-possible.md): Arbitrage is a low-risk profit from inconsistent prices (e.g., "Yes" + "No" priced below $1 combined). In practice, true arbitrage is rare because fees, slippage, limits, and timing risk often eliminate it.
- [What is liquidity, and why does it matter so much in prediction markets?](/answers/what-is-liquidity-and-why-does-it-matter-so-much-in-prediction-markets.md): Liquidity determines how easily you can trade without moving the price. Low liquidity increases spreads, slippage, and exit risk.
- [What is the difference between prediction markets and futures markets?](/answers/what-is-the-difference-between-prediction-markets-and-futures-markets.md): Prediction markets settle on whether a discrete event happens, while futures settle on the future price or level of an asset or index. One prices an outcome, the other prices a value.
- [What makes a prediction market signal trustworthy versus noisy?](/answers/what-makes-a-prediction-market-signal-trustworthy-versus-noisy.md): A trustworthy prediction market signal usually has deep liquidity, clear resolution rules, and a move backed by real information. Noise comes from thin books, vague rules, and unexplained spikes.
- [What types of markets are listed on Polymarket versus Kalshi?](/answers/what-types-of-markets-are-listed-on-polymarket-versus-kalshi.md): Polymarket lists a wide range of global markets, including politics, geopolitics, and cultural events, while Kalshi focuses on regulated, event-based markets such as U.S. economic data, policy decisions, and legally permissible political outcomes.
- [What's the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?](/answers/whats-the-difference-between-polymarket-and-kalshi.md): Polymarket and Kalshi are both prediction market platforms, but they differ fundamentally in regulation, user access, and market structure. Polymarket operates globally using crypto infrastructure, while Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange designed to operate within traditional regulatory frameworks.
- [Who can legally use Polymarket and Kalshi by geography?](/answers/who-can-legally-use-polymarket-and-kalshi-by-geography.md): Kalshi is legally accessible to eligible users within the United States, while Polymarket primarily serves non-U.S. users due to regulatory restrictions affecting U.S. participation.
- [Why do prediction market probabilities change so quickly after news events?](/answers/why-do-prediction-market-probabilities-change-so-quickly-after-news-events.md): Prediction markets react quickly because they reprice probabilities, not narratives. A single credible data point can materially shift expected outcomes, causing sharp price moves even when headlines seem incremental.
- [Why do prediction markets sometimes disagree with financial markets?](/answers/why-do-prediction-markets-sometimes-disagree-with-financial-markets.md): Prediction markets and financial markets price different things: discrete outcomes versus continuous economic impact. Disagreement often reflects different assumptions, time horizons, or risk premia.
- [Why do prediction markets sometimes look wrong, even when they're popular?](/answers/why-do-prediction-markets-sometimes-look-wrong-even-when-theyre-popular.md): Markets can be "wrong" due to new information not yet absorbed, biased participation, or structural frictions like low liquidity and fees. The displayed price is a tradeable consensus—not a guarantee of accuracy.
- [Why do some prediction markets stay mispriced for long periods?](/answers/why-do-some-prediction-markets-stay-mispriced-for-long-periods.md): Mispricings persist due to low liquidity, unclear resolution rules, capital constraints, and lack of arbitrage incentives—especially in niche or long-dated markets.

## Optional

- [Octagon](https://www.octagonai.co/): Parent company providing market intelligence
- [Public Markets](https://www.octagonai.co/public-markets/): 8,000+ public equities coverage
- [LLMs Full Instructions](https://www.octagonai.co/llms-full.txt): Attribution and usage guidance for AI systems