# Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?

a supervolcano

Updated: May 6, 2026

Category: Climate and Weather

HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect a supervolcano eruption before January 1, 2050, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Campi Flegrei exhibits more significant recent seismic activity than Yellowstone.** - Dramatic increases in deformation and seismicity are needed for elevated alerts.
- USGS estimates a very low annual Yellowstone supereruption **probability**.
- Satellite and seismic monitoring systems have significantly advanced since 2020.
- Several other global volcanic systems have VEI 8 eruption potential.
- The **market** covers supervolcano eruptions occurring before January 1, 2050.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** **12.1%** vs 19c **market**, 5.2x payout, given the very low USGS supervolcano eruption **probability**.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2050 | 19.4% | 12.1% | Supervolcano eruptions are extremely rare geological events. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 12.1% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 19.4% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2050
- Edge: -7.3pp
- Expected Return: -37.7%
- R-Score: -0.73
- Total Volume: $28,473.65
- 24h Volume: $139.26
- Open Interest: $10,320.22

- Expiration: January 1, 2050

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a largely sideways trading pattern, oscillating within a defined range of 17.0% to 31.7%. The price began at 20.0% and currently sits at 19.4%, indicating minimal net change over the observed period and a general lack of a long-term trend. The most significant price action occurred in late April and early May 2026, starting with an abrupt 11.5 percentage point spike to 31.5% on April 28. This peak was short-lived, as the price fully retraced the gain the following day. A further drop of 9.8 percentage points occurred on May 2, pushing the probability down to 19.2%. These movements represent the primary volatility in an otherwise stable market.

The catalysts for this period of volatility appear rooted in a conflict between speculation and scientific data. While no specific factor was identified for the initial spike on April 28, the subsequent drops were driven by a market reassessment. The sharp decline on May 2 was directly linked to a scientific report concluding that the Yellowstone Caldera's melt reservoirs were not eruptible, causing traders to significantly lower their probability estimates. The total traded volume of 1,320 contracts is modest, and the zero-volume figures in the sample data suggest that trading activity is sporadic rather than continuous. This low liquidity can exacerbate price swings when news does emerge, but the overall low volume suggests a market with limited but specialized participation.

From a technical perspective, the market has established a clear resistance level around the 31.5% mark, a price that was decisively rejected. The lower end of the range, near 17.0%, appears to act as a support level. The price of 20.0% serves as a psychological pivot point, being both the starting price and a level the market has repeatedly tested. Overall market sentiment appears to be anchored by established scientific views, as reflected by the current price settling near its opening level. The market seems to discount unsubstantiated fears, as shown by the rapid sell-off following the spike, and places a higher weight on concrete geological evidence, suggesting a rational assessment of the long-term risk.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 May 02, 2026: 9.8pp drop

Price decreased from 29.0% to 19.2%

**Outcome:** Before Jan 1, 2050

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 9.8 percentage point drop in the prediction market on May 02, 2026, was likely a reassessment based on scientific evidence, not identified social media activity. A Nature (2025) report concluded that Yellowstone Caldera's rhyolitic melt reservoirs are not eruptible, directly undermining narratives of an imminent super-eruption before 2050 [[^]](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08286-z?error=cookies_not_supported&code=b173e286-6ac1-420c-8ebc-af8d21ff2797). While the study was published in 2025, its findings, if gaining renewed attention or wider dissemination around May 2026, would strongly depress the market's "yes" probability. No relevant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives coinciding with the price movement was found in the provided sources. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and traditional scientific reporting served as the primary driver.

#### 📉 April 29, 2026: 11.5pp drop

Price decreased from 31.5% to 20.0%

**Outcome:** Before Jan 1, 2050

**What happened:** The requested analysis pertains to a prediction market price movement scheduled for April 29, 2026. As this date is in the future, it is not possible to identify any real-world social media activity, traditional news, or market structure events that could have caused the specified 11.5 percentage point drop. The provided web research offers general information on supervolcano prediction and risk but does not contain any details relevant to a specific market movement on a future date [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0). Therefore, specific drivers, including social media activity, cannot be determined as they have not yet occurred.

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 11.5pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 31.5%

**Outcome:** Before Jan 1, 2050

**What happened:** Based on the provided web research, no specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factor was identified to explain the 11.5 percentage point spike in the "Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?" prediction market on April 28, 2026. The only time-relevant official announcement, a USGS notice on April 28, 2026, concerned Kīlauea's ongoing activity and was explicitly noted as not related to supervolcano eruption risk [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2026-04-28T18:35:01+00:00). General scientific understanding indicates very low probabilities for supereruptions and the impossibility of predicting them with such calendar precision [[^]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X20300844). Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this analysis as no relevant activity was found in the provided sources to explain the price movement.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if a supervolcano erupts before January 1, 2050. If no such eruption occurs by December 31, 2049, 11:59 PM EST, the market resolves to "No." Resolution is confirmed by reports from major news outlets like the New York Times, Associated Press, Reuters, and others, and the market will close early if the event takes place.

## Market Discussion

The market is heavily skewed towards "No" (over 80% probability) for a supervolcano eruption before 2050. The primary discussion among traders revolves around the ambiguity of the market rules, specifically the lack of a clear definition for "supervolcano" and what type or size of eruption would qualify. While some 'Yes' positions are noted (including one based on a bot), no specific arguments are presented to support a supervolcano eruption occurring by the deadline, with clarification on scope (global vs. US) also being a recurring theme.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2050 | 19.4% | 19.5% | 19.4% | $28,473.65 | $10,320.22 |

## How do Yellowstone's and Campi Flegrei's current seismic activity and ground deformation signals compare as indicators of a pre-2050 eruption?

Yellowstone Alert Status | NORMAL alert [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-04-01T16:26:51+00:00)[[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/volcano/wy1) |
Campi Flegrei Uplift Rate | 10 mm per month (February to April 2026) [[^]](https://uisjournal.com/campi-flegrei-bradyseism-slows-down-and-soil-lifting-drops-to-10-mm-per-month-the-ingv-bulletin/)[[^]](https://www.geopop.it/situazione-stabile-ai-campi-flegrei-il-bollettino-ingv-conferma-il-sollevamento-del-suolo-a-10-mm-mese/) |
Yellowstone Supereruption Odds | 1 in 730,000 yearly [[^]](https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/61506/20260319/yellowstones-supervolcano-about-blow-real-risks-eruption-facts-revealed.htm) |

**Compared to Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei exhibits greater recent seismic activity and ongoing ground deformation**

Compared to Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei exhibits greater recent seismic activity and ongoing ground deformation. Yellowstone maintains a NORMAL alert status and experienced a pause in ground uplift in January 2026, while Campi Flegrei has shown continuous uplift and recent seismic events [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-04-01T16:26:51+00:00)[[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/volcano/wy1)[[^]](https://uisjournal.com/campi-flegrei-bradyseism-slows-down-and-soil-lifting-drops-to-10-mm-per-month-the-ingv-bulletin/)[[^]](https://www.geopop.it/situazione-stabile-ai-campi-flegrei-il-bollettino-ingv-conferma-il-sollevamento-del-suolo-a-10-mm-mese/). Despite these differences, neither volcano currently displays strong earthquake swarms or rapid uplift exceeding background levels that are typically identified as eruption precursors [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-far-advance-could-scientists-predict-eruption-yellowstone-volcano).

Yellowstone shows minimal activity, with no signs of imminent eruption. Its current status indicates very low volcanic activity, with no evidence of impending eruption. In April 2026, Yellowstone recorded 97 earthquakes, with the largest event reaching magnitude M2.5 [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-04-01T16:26:51+00:00). Ground uplift at Yellowstone paused in January 2026, and there are no signs of magma accumulation beneath the caldera. The annual **probability** of a Yellowstone supereruption is exceptionally low, estimated at 1 in 730,000 [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-04-01T16:26:51+00:00)[[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/volcano/wy1)[[^]](https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/61506/20260319/yellowstones-supervolcano-about-blow-real-risks-eruption-facts-revealed.htm).

Campi Flegrei's unrest is slowing, driven by hydrothermal processes. Its ongoing unrest, while notable, is decelerating and primarily influenced by hydrothermal systems. In one week in April 2026, Campi Flegrei registered 21 earthquakes, with a maximum magnitude of M1.9 [[^]](https://uisjournal.com/campi-flegrei-bradyseism-slows-down-and-soil-lifting-drops-to-10-mm-per-month-the-ingv-bulletin/). The ground uplift rate was recorded at 10 mm per month from February to April 2026, contributing to an approximate total uplift of 26.5 cm since 2025 [[^]](https://uisjournal.com/campi-flegrei-bradyseism-slows-down-and-soil-lifting-drops-to-10-mm-per-month-the-ingv-bulletin/)[[^]](https://www.geopop.it/situazione-stabile-ai-campi-flegrei-il-bollettino-ingv-conferma-il-sollevamento-del-suolo-a-10-mm-mese/). Although unrest at Campi Flegrei has been continuous since 2005, current activity is driven mainly by hydrothermal dynamics rather than deeper magmatic migration [[^]](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03296-3)[[^]](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adw9038).

## What specific seismic or geodetic precursors at a known supervolcano would cause the USGS or a similar agency to significantly elevate its alert level before 2050?

Yellowstone Eruption Precursors | Dramatic increases in deformation rates and major increases in seismicity [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/science/uplift-along-north-rim-yellowstone-caldera) |
USGS Alert Level Decision | Case-by-case decisions based on all monitoring data, no set thresholds [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-are-volcano-alert-level-and-aviation-color-code) |
Long Valley Caldera Unrest | Recurring earthquake swarms and inflation of the resurgent dome [[^]](https://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2185/home.html)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/long-valley-caldera/science/deformation-measurements-long-valley-caldera) |

**Significant alert level elevation requires dramatic deformation and seismicity increases**

Significant alert level elevation requires dramatic deformation and seismicity increases. For the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) or similar agencies to significantly elevate a supervolcano's alert level, precursors would involve dramatic increases in deformation and major increases in seismicity [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-are-volcano-alert-level-and-aviation-color-code). The USGS does not rely on set thresholds for changing alert levels, instead opting for case-by-case decisions based on all available monitoring data [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-are-volcano-alert-level-and-aviation-color-code).

Yellowstone and Long Valley show distinct precursor patterns. At Yellowstone, precursors to an eruption would include 'dramatic increases in the rates of deformation and obvious shallowing of the deformation source,' coupled with 'major increases in seismicity' [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/science/uplift-along-north-rim-yellowstone-caldera). Yellowstone's monitoring employs continuous GPS stations to measure caldera rim uplift or subsidence, and volcano notices report changes in deformation alongside located earthquakes [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-02-02T18:25:43+00:00)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/volcano-updates). An example from January 2026 noted subtle uplift and background seismicity, comprising 100 located earthquakes with the largest being M2.6 [[^]](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/notice/DOI-USGS-YVO-2026-02-02T18:25:43+00:00). For Long Valley Caldera, unrest is characterized by recurring earthquake swarms and inflation of the resurgent dome, with geodetic deformation tracked using GPS and tiltmeters [[^]](https://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2185/home.html)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/long-valley-caldera/science/deformation-measurements-long-valley-caldera).

USGS alert levels define escalating eruption potential and hazards. USGS alert levels escalate from ADVISORY, indicating elevated unrest, to WATCH for heightened unrest with increased eruption potential [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/alert-level-system)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/alert-level-icons). The highest level, WARNING, is issued for a hazardous eruption that is imminent, underway, or suspected [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/alert-level-system)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/alert-level-icons).

## How does the scientific consensus on annual super-eruption probabilities from the USGS contrast with the long-term risk implied by the pre-2050 market price?

USGS Yellowstone Annual Supereruption Probability | 1/730,000 or 0.00014% [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/questions-about-supervolcanoes) |
OctagonAI Supervolcano Eruption Probability (before 2050) | 31.5% [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0) |
Kalshi Supervolcano Eruption Probability (before 2050) | 14% [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates a very low annual Yellowstone supereruption **probability**. Specifically, the USGS calculates the yearly **probability** of another caldera-forming Yellowstone supereruption at approximately 1/730,000, or **0.00014%** [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/questions-about-supervolcanoes). This figure, however, is a crude average derived from limited historical data, and the timing of catastrophic supereruptions is inherently unpredictable [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/questions-about-supervolcanoes). The USGS also emphasizes that Yellowstone is not "overdue," as volcanic activity does not follow predictable schedules, and supereruptions are not evenly spaced in time, limiting the utility of probabilistic framing [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt).

Prediction markets indicate higher supervolcano eruption probabilities by 2050. These markets suggest significantly higher probabilities for a supervolcano eruption occurring before 2050 [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0). For instance, one **market** shows a 'Yes' price of **31.5%**, while another indicates a **14%** 'Yes' for resolution before January 1, 2050 [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0). A direct numerical comparison between these **market**-implied probabilities and the USGS annual figure is conceptually sensitive. This is primarily because the USGS figure specifically pertains to Yellowstone caldera-forming events, whereas the **market**'s scope likely encompasses any global supervolcano [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/questions-about-supervolcanoes)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0). Furthermore, the USGS reiterates that eruptions are neither regular nor predictable, which complicates any direct comparison between these differing assessments [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0).

## What advancements in satellite monitoring (InSAR) and seismic sensor networks have been implemented since 2020 for tracking pre-eruptive activity?

High-Resolution SAR Observations Frequency | Sub-weekly [[^]](https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/download/9216/7890/37589)[[^]](https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/199346/1/JGR%20Solid%20Earth%20-%202023%20-%20Bemelmans%20-%20High%E2%80%90Resolution%20InSAR%20Reveals%20Localized%20Pre%E2%80%90Eruptive%20Deformation%20Inside%20the%20Crater%20of.pdf) |
High-Resolution SAR Spatial Resolution | Less than one meter [[^]](https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/download/9216/7890/37589)[[^]](https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/199346/1/JGR%20Solid%20Earth%20-%202023%20-%20Bemelmans%20-%20High%E2%80%90Resolution%20InSAR%20Reveals%20Localized%20Pre%E2%80%90Eruptive%20Deformation%20Inside%20the%20Crater%20of.pdf) |
InSAR Ground Deformation Detection | Millimeter-level [[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/)[[^]](https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/199346/1/JGR%20Solid%20Earth%20-%202023%20-%20Bemelmans%20-%20High%E2%80%90Resolution%20InSAR%20Reveals%20Localized%20Pre%E2%80%90Eruptive%20Deformation%20Inside%20the%20Crater%20of.pdf) |

**Since 2020, satellite monitoring, particularly InSAR, significantly advanced in tracking pre-eruptive activity**

Since 2020, satellite monitoring, particularly InSAR, significantly advanced in tracking pre-eruptive activity. Advancements in InSAR include improved revisit frequency and spatial coverage, now enabling sub-weekly observations and spatial resolutions of less than one meter, with global coverage provided by satellites such as COSMO-Skymed, TerraSAR-X, and ICEYE [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/advances-volcano-monitoring-driven-first-decade-sentinel-1-observations)[[^]](https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-sentinel-satellites-bring-new-insight-volcano-monitoring)[[^]](https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/download/9216/7890/37589)[[^]](https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/199346/1/JGR%20Solid%20Earth%20-%**202023%**20-%20Bemelmans%20-%20High%E2%**80%**90Resolution%20InSAR%20Reveals%20Localized%20Pre%E2%**80%**90Eruptive%20Deformation%20Inside%20the%20Crater%20of.pdf)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/volcano-geodesy-using-insar-2020-past-and-next-decades)[[^]](https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70230068)[[^]](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358563485_Volcano_geodesy_using_InSAR_in_2020_the_past_and_next_decades). This technology can detect millimeter-level ground deformations, offering crucial information about magma movements, magma chamber pressurization, and localized deformation within craters that can signal shallow magma [[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/)[[^]](https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/199346/1/JGR%20Solid%20Earth%20-%**202023%**20-%20Bemelmans%20-%20High%E2%**80%**90Resolution%20InSAR%20Reveals%20Localized%20Pre%E2%**80%**90Eruptive%20Deformation%20Inside%20the%20Crater%20of.pdf). Algorithms such as LiCSAlert actively monitor volcanoes for unrest by detecting changes in deformation rates or styles, thereby improving forecasting, detection, and tracking of eruptive activity [[^]](https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/global-supervolcano-threat-rises-as-scientists-sound-the-alarm/)[[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/)[[^]](https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/download/9216/7890/37589)[[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/advances-volcano-monitoring-driven-first-decade-sentinel-1-observations)[[^]](https://www.earthscope.org/news/pairing-machine-learning-with-gnss-and-insar-could-help-forecast-eruptions/)[[^]](https://lida.leeds.ac.uk/measuring-volcanic-deformation-from-space-to-enable-global-monitoring/). Additionally, multi-parameter analysis combines various satellite data on thermal anomalies, deformation, gas emissions, and ash plumes for deeper insights into complex volcanic processes [[^]](https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/download/9216/7890/37589).

Simultaneously, seismic sensor networks also show substantial progress in monitoring volcanoes. Modern broadband seismometers, strategically deployed, detect a wide array of seismic frequencies, including volcanic tremors, volcano-tectonic earthquakes, and long-period events [[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/). AI and machine learning techniques are increasingly applied to seismic data analysis, enabling volcanologists to pinpoint pre-eruptive patterns and anomalies with greater accuracy and earlier warning [[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/)[[^]](https://theaspd.com/index.php/ijes/article/view/6711)[[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1204832/full)[[^]](https://jisem-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/11802)[[^]](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/390954568_Advancements_in_Seismic_Wave_Monitoring_Technologies_Using_Artificial_Intelligence). Seismic tomography techniques now create three-dimensional images of a volcano's internal structure, mapping the location and movement of magma [[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/). Improvements in real-time data processing, facilitated by parallel, cloud, and edge computing, allow for quicker analysis and dissemination of warnings [[^]](https://theaspd.com/index.php/ijes/article/view/6711). Furthermore, earthquake sensors have improved the detection of infrasound from distances of tens to hundreds of miles [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/science/cvo-scientists-develop-innovative-tools-improved-volcano-monitoring), and the use of existing optical fiber networks for seismic monitoring is being explored, with sensors on these cables potentially relaying earthquake information faster than satellite communication [[^]](https://geoquake.org/earthquake/seismic-activity-monitoring-latest-observation-methods/)[[^]](https://eureka.patsnap.com/report-research-on-piezoelectric-sensors-in-earthquake-alert-systems). Integrated monitoring networks now combine high-precision sensors, satellite technologies, and geochemical methods, utilizing AI and satellite imaging for enhanced early warning capabilities [[^]](https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/global-supervolcano-threat-rises-as-scientists-sound-the-alarm/)[[^]](https://www.bioage-srl.com/en/scientific-methods-and-tools-for-volcano-monitoring-advanced-techniques/).

## Which active volcanic systems, besides Yellowstone and Campi Flegrei, have the geological potential to produce a VEI 8 eruption according to global risk databases?

Toba Eruption Scale | VEI 8 (potentially VEI 9) 75,000 years ago [[^]](https://www.volcanocafe.org/ten-volcanoes-with-super-eruption-potential-part-i/)[[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas) |
Taupō Eruption Scale | VEI 8 (26,000 to 27,000 years ago) [[^]](https://www.sciencing.com/1787138/top-5-dangerous-supervolcanoes-world/)[[^]](https://owlcation.com/stem/supervolcanoes-around-the-world)[[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137)[[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE)[[^]](https://www.vulkane.net/en/volcanism/supervolcano.html) |
Island Park Eruption Scale | VEI 8 (2.1 million years ago) [[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE) |

**Several active volcanic systems globally possess the geological potential for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 8 eruption**

Several active volcanic systems globally possess the geological potential for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 8 eruption. Such an event involves the ejection of over 1,000 cubic kilometers of volcanic material and could significantly impact global climate [[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE)[[^]](https://www.vulkane.net/en/volcanism/supervolcano.html). Beyond Yellowstone and Campi Flegrei, systems such as Toba, Taupō, the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, and Island Park Caldera are recognized for this potential. While Campi Flegrei has experienced massive eruptions, it has not produced a confirmed VEI 8 event [[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE). Global risk databases, including the NOAA NCEI "Significant Volcanic Eruptions Database" and the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program, aid in tracking and assessing these volcanic hazards [[^]](https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/data/catalog/sedac-ciesin-chrr-ndh-volcano-hfd-1.0)[[^]](https://databasin.org/datasets/3f4b40ab610c4995af8d8451d2cd39e5/)[[^]](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/significant-volcanic-eruptions)[[^]](https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/ncei-wds-global-significant-volcanic-eruptions-database-4360-bc-to-present1).

Past VEI 8 eruptions occurred globally at several sites. Toba in Indonesia produced the Younger Toba Tuff eruption approximately 75,000 years ago, registering as a VEI 8 and potentially a VEI 9 [[^]](https://www.volcanocafe.org/ten-volcanoes-with-super-eruption-potential-part-i/)[[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas). New Zealand's Taupō also experienced a VEI 8 event with its Oruanui eruption around 26,000 to 27,000 years ago [[^]](https://www.sciencing.com/1787138/top-5-dangerous-supervolcanoes-world/)[[^]](https://owlcation.com/stem/supervolcanoes-around-the-world)[[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137)[[^]](https://ozgeology.com/blogs/news/earth-s-active-supervolcanoes-the-vei-8-eruptions-and-their-restless-calderas)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE)[[^]](https://www.vulkane.net/en/volcanism/supervolcano.html). In South America, the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, particularly calderas like Vilama (8.4-8.5 million years ago) and Cerro Guacha, has a history of VEI 8 eruptions [[^]](https://owlcation.com/stem/supervolcanoes-around-the-world)[[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137)[[^]](https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/earths-supervolcanoes-are-waking-up-heres-what-that-means-for-the-planet)[[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137). The Island Park Caldera in the USA, associated with the Yellowstone hotspot, generated a VEI 8 eruption 2.1 million years ago, known as the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff [[^]](https://www.heritagedaily.com/2019/07/10-of-the-largest-super-volcanoes/124137)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxe9DsfIALE). Other notable systems with VEI 8 potential include Long Valley Caldera and Valles Caldera in the United States, both recognized as supervolcano sites [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-some-examples-supervolcanoes)[[^]](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-world_s-6-known-supervolcanoes/analise.dubner)[[^]](https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/earths-supervolcanoes-are-waking-up-heres-what-that-means-for-the-planet)[[^]](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-world_s-6-known-supervolcanoes/analise.dubner)[[^]](https://owlcation.com/stem/supervolcanoes-around-the-world). Japan's Aira Caldera, formed by a massive eruption approximately 22,000 years ago, is an active complex [[^]](https://www.sciencing.com/1787138/top-5-dangerous-supervolcanoes-world/). Additionally, the Calabozos system in the Southern Andes Volcanic Zone and Okataina in New Zealand are considered large enough to potentially host a VEI 8 eruption and possess sizable magma chambers [[^]](https://www.volcanocafe.org/ten-volcanoes-with-super-eruption-potential-part-iii/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Kalshi contract “KXERUPTSUPER-0” concerning whether a supervolcano will erupt before Jan 1, 2050, currently indicates an implied “Yes” probability of around 14% and a “No” probability of around 86% [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeruptsuper/supervolcano/kxeruptsuper-0)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0).** This **market**, which opened on Jul 18, 2025, will close at 2050-01-01T04:59:00Z and resolves to “No” if no eruption occurs by Dec 31, 2049, 11:59 pm ET [[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/kalshi/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050--KXERUPTSUPER-0). Scientists generally agree that volcanic timing is inherently uncertain, and precursors for a catastrophic eruption, such as earthquake swarms or rapid ground deformation, would likely be detectable for weeks or even months to years beforehand [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-far-advance-could-scientists-predict-eruption-yellowstone-volcano).

**Regarding Yellowstone, it is not considered “overdue” for an eruption based on its past events at approximately 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago, averaging roughly 725,000 years between them [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt).** However, the U.S. Geological Survey cautions that such eruption intervals are not meaningfully predictive and also highlights concerns about melt fraction and magma availability [[^]](https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt). The most recent supereruption at Yellowstone, the Lava Creek supereruption, has a preferred 40Ar/39Ar isochron date of 631.3 ± 4.3 ka [[^]](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GC005881).

**In a different system context, research on Campi Flegrei unrest offers a decade-scale pathway.** One scenario-based forecast indicates that, with a maximum uplift/accumulation rate of 8×10^6 m3/y, the reservoir could reach eruption-compatible conditions within the next two decades, potentially extending into the 2040s. This, however, does not guarantee an eruption [[^]](https://preview-www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03140-0)[[^]](https://www.unige.ch/sciences/en/actualites/2025/scenario-based-forecast-evolution-75-years-unrest-campi-flegrei-caldera-italy).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 08, 2050
- **Closes:** January 01, 2050

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Kalshi contract “KXERUPTSUPER-0” concerning whether a supervolcano will erupt before Jan 1, 2050, currently indicates an implied “Yes” **probability** of around **14%** and a “No” **probability** of around **86%** [^] [^] .
- This **market**, which opened on Jul 18, 2025, will close at 2050-01-01T04:59:00Z and resolves to “No” if no eruption occurs by Dec 31, 2049, 11:59 pm ET [^] .
- Scientists generally agree that volcanic timing is inherently uncertain, and precursors for a catastrophic eruption, such as earthquake swarms or rapid ground deformation, would likely be detectable for weeks or even months to years beforehand [^] .
- Regarding Yellowstone, it is not considered “overdue” for an eruption based on its past events at approximately 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago, averaging roughly 725,000 years between them [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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