# Brent crude oil price on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT

Updated: June 22, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/commodities/oil-gas/brent-crude-oil-price-on-june-30-2026-at-5-00-pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Brent crude oil price to be above **$74.99** on June 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Since last update (~11d): The model's probability for "above $78.99" dropped -62.5pp, causing the edge to flip (model_led).** - **Model** **probability** for "above **$80.99**" declined -70.5pp, the largest drop, widening the edge (model_led).
- Headline **model** **probability** for "above **$74.99**" dropped -34.8pp; the overall edge shifted -6.8pp.

**- - US-Iran diplomatic progress de-escalated Strait of Hormuz tensions.** - This de-escalation led to increased institutional short positions.
- De-escalation in Hormuz undermines prior bullish Brent price forecasts.
- US-Iran talks included a 60-day roadmap toward a potential deal.
- Institutional investors significantly reduced Brent crude length in Q2 2026.
- Potential Iranian oil supply restoration could influence future prices.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **59.3%** **probability** is lower than 66c **market** price, implying 1.5x payout despite de-escalated Strait of Hormuz tensions.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $90.99 | 5.0% | 3.5% | Strait of Hormuz de-escalation undermined bullish catalysts, reducing probability of very high Brent crude prices. |
| above $94.99 | 4.0% | 3.5% | Strait of Hormuz de-escalation undermined bullish catalysts, reducing probability of very high Brent crude prices. |
| above $74.99 | 66.0% | 59.3% | Diplomatic progress de-escalated Strait of Hormuz tensions, driving Brent crude prices downwards to around $79/bbl. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $90.99 | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| above $94.99 | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| above $74.99 | 66.0% | 59.3% |
| above $92.99 | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| above $76.99 | 47.0% | 39.2% |
| above $78.99 | 35.0% | 27.7% |
| above $82.99 | 20.0% | 14.7% |
| above $86.99 | 11.0% | 7.7% |
| above $96.99 | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| above $84.99 | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| above $80.99 | 26.0% | 19.7% |
| above $100.99 | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| above $88.99 | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| above $112.99 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| above $98.99 | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| above $106.99 | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| above $110.99 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| above $102.99 | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| above $104.99 | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| above $108.99 | 1.0% | 0.6% |

- Expiration: June 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a distinct downward trend, moving from a high of 98% to its current price of 59%. The price action has been characterized by high volatility, driven by geopolitical news. The most significant movement was a 26 percentage point drop on June 22, which is attributed to news of U.S.-Iran negotiations that signaled easing supply risks. This followed a 14-point spike on June 19 after those same talks were reportedly postponed. Earlier, on June 16, the market saw a 9-point drop based on reports of an interim peace agreement that was expected to increase global oil supply.

The recent, sharp price declines have been accompanied by a significant surge in trading volume, indicating strong conviction among market participants for the downward move. The price appears to be finding a new support level around the 58-59% mark after breaking through previous support in the 70-80% range. Overall, the chart suggests a major shift in market sentiment. Initial confidence that the price of Brent crude would resolve above the contract's threshold has eroded substantially. The market now reflects a much more bearish outlook, pricing in a decreased likelihood of higher oil prices as the contract's resolution date approaches.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $78.99

#### 📉 June 22, 2026: 35.0pp drop

Price decreased from 74.0% to 39.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 35.0 percentage point drop was traditional news concerning US-Iran negotiations, which signaled an easing of supply risks, specifically regarding normalized trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/brent-falls-after-us-iran-talks-conclude-in-switzerland-6198926)[[^]](https://sa.marketscreener.com/news/citi-cuts-brent-forecasts-as-u-s-iran-mou-points-to-strait-of-hormuz-flow-normalization-ce7f5cdede8af723). These developments prompted institutions like Citi to revise Brent crude forecasts downward for the latter half of 2026, coinciding with Brent crude trading near the $78.99 target price on June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data)[[^]](https://convextrade.com/today/brent-crude-oil-price)[[^]](https://sa.marketscreener.com/news/citi-cuts-brent-forecasts-as-u-s-iran-mou-points-to-strait-of-hormuz-flow-normalization-ce7f5cdede8af723). Bloomberg reports explicitly covered how these negotiations caused oil markets to fall, with Brent crude dropping significantly [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cziH4Jq0NfE)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uslPWqVR-UE). No social media activity from key figures was identified in the provided research, indicating it was irrelevant to this particular market movement.

### Outcome: above $80.99

#### 📈 June 20, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 47.0% to 56.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike on June 20, 2026, was the announcement that Iran renewed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing Lebanon ceasefire violations [[^]](https://worldoil.com/news/2026/6/20/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-citing-lebanon-ceasefire-violations/). This geopolitical development, which followed the cancellation of U.S.-Iran peace talks, directly prompted concerns over future oil supply disruptions and served as a key catalyst for upward price pressure on Brent crude [[^]](https://worldoil.com/news/2026/6/20/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-citing-lebanon-ceasefire-violations/). This traditional news announcement coincided directly with the prediction market's movement [[^]](https://worldoil.com/news/2026/6/20/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-citing-lebanon-ceasefire-violations/). Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or narratives from key figures were identified in the research.

#### 📉 June 16, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 38.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was a reported interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement on June 16, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/us-iran-peace-agreement-oil-prices-tankers-strait-of-hormuz-transit.html)[[^]](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/oil-drops-nearly-3-3-month-low-markets-weigh-us-iran-peace-deal). This agreement was expected to increase global oil supply by allowing Iran to resume exports, causing Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly below $80 per barrel for the first time since March [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/us-iran-peace-agreement-oil-prices-tankers-strait-of-hormuz-transit.html)[[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil/news/559404). This traditional news, initially reported by Bloomberg, directly triggered the downturn in oil prices [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/us-iran-peace-agreement-oil-prices-tankers-strait-of-hormuz-transit.html)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cziH4Jq0NfE). Based on the available research, social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.

#### 📉 June 14, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 80.0% to 63.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point drop was the announcement of a U.S.-Iran framework deal on June 14, 2026, aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/crude-80-25-signals-de-risking-trade-safe-bottom-2606/)[[^]](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/06/14/crude-oil-prices-slide-toward-80-as-iran-deal-optimism-and-fed-outlook-shift-market-sentiment/)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6217106px6o)[[^]](https://www.wyso.org/npr-news/2026-06-14/crude-oil-futures-drop-after-trump-promises-an-iran-deal-will-be-signed-friday). This significant geopolitical development caused global oil prices to fall sharply that day, with Brent crude dropping over 5% to approximately $82.84 per barrel, as markets anticipated a potential supply increase from returning Iranian oil and reduced geopolitical risk [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/crude-80-25-signals-de-risking-trade-safe-bottom-2606/)[[^]](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/06/14/crude-oil-prices-slide-toward-80-as-iran-deal-optimism-and-fed-outlook-shift-market-sentiment/)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6217106px6o)[[^]](https://www.wyso.org/npr-news/2026-06-14/crude-oil-futures-drop-after-trump-promises-an-iran-deal-will-be-signed-friday)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uslPWqVR-UE). This decline made the "above $80.99" outcome significantly less probable. Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor in this price movement based on the provided research.

### Outcome: above $74.99

#### 📈 June 19, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 70.0% to 84.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point spike on June 19, 2026, was the abrupt postponement of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Geneva [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-us-iran-deal-strait-hormuz-shipping-recovery.html). This development, reported by traditional news outlets, caused oil prices to rise due to increased uncertainty regarding potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, despite a broader weekly downtrend in prices driven by other peace efforts [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-us-iran-deal-strait-hormuz-shipping-recovery.html)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/06/19/oil-on-track-to-post-weekly-loss-as-supply-outlook-improves-on-iran-deal/). Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant based on the provided information.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the close price of the Brent crude oil (BRENTU6 contract) 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT on June 30, 2026, is above $76.99 USD/Bbl, and NO if it is $76.99 USD/Bbl or lower, as verified by Pyth. The market closes on June 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, which rolls 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day, with values rounded to two decimal places. If data is unavailable, the most recently published data will be used.

## Market Discussion

Traders are debating the future price of Brent crude oil, with one expressing surprise that the odds for the price to exceed $94.99 by June 30, 2026, are currently so low, implying a belief in higher prices. A key insight highlighted is that the market's settlement is based on the September Brent contract, rather than the immediate June contract, serving as a warning to participants about this technical detail. There is no clear consensus on the price direction, but a notable technical clarification has been offered.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $100.99 | 1% | 3% | 2% | $27,586.61 | $13,900.27 |
| above $102.99 | 2% | 5% | 6% | $11,187.66 | $6,385.63 |
| above $104.99 | 1% | 6% | 4% | $10,715.53 | $5,420.38 |
| above $106.99 | 0% | 5% | 2% | $16,986.8 | $8,754.81 |
| above $108.99 | 1% | 4% | 1% | $7,615.59 | $5,207.2 |
| above $110.99 | 0% | 5% | 1% | $15,170.49 | $11,443.17 |
| above $112.99 | 0% | 2% | 1% | $25,640.73 | $16,644.32 |
| above $74.99 | 64% | 66% | 66% | $87,323.89 | $28,533.13 |
| above $76.99 | 51% | 52% | 47% | $47,266.33 | $21,392.53 |
| above $78.99 | 39% | 43% | 35% | $45,041.16 | $15,945.36 |
| above $80.99 | 29% | 32% | 26% | $29,031.75 | $15,272.7 |
| above $82.99 | 20% | 23% | 20% | $35,726.07 | $16,658.91 |
| above $84.99 | 12% | 14% | 14% | $31,385.16 | $11,469.52 |
| above $86.99 | 8% | 11% | 11% | $34,535.97 | $9,549.24 |
| above $88.99 | 5% | 8% | 3% | $26,599.98 | $12,736.94 |
| above $90.99 | 4% | 6% | 5% | $307,727.06 | $278,515.25 |
| above $92.99 | 2% | 7% | 6% | $60,208.47 | $34,922.7 |
| above $94.99 | 3% | 6% | 4% | $304,925.91 | $272,126.86 |
| above $96.99 | 3% | 4% | 3% | $32,366.31 | $15,030.75 |
| above $98.99 | 1% | 2% | 2% | $22,592.48 | $9,626.24 |

## How might developments in US-Iran diplomatic relations before June 30, 2026, influence OPEC+ production quotas?

Potential deal roadmap | Within 60 days [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/usiran-talks-and-mou-explained-what-happened-and-whats-next/)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/first-round-of-us-iran-talks-end-with-encouraging-progress/)[[^]](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.rappler.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-peace-talks-updates-june-22-2026/) |
Current Brent crude price (June 22, 2026) | $78.55/bbl [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil) |
EIA forecast (restricted Strait of Hormuz) | Near $105/bbl [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://marketcheese.com/forecast/brent/T1RneU1R-invest-in-brent-crude-up-to-107) |

**US-Iran diplomacy significantly impacts OPEC+ quotas and global supply routes**

US-Iran diplomacy significantly impacts OPEC+ quotas and global supply routes. Active diplomatic relations between the US and Iran are currently influencing OPEC+ production decisions, particularly in relation to de-escalation efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global supply route stability [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/usiran-talks-and-mou-explained-what-happened-and-whats-next/)[[^]](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/05/03/opec-producers-agree-on-june-output-adjustment-and-reaffirm-**market**-stability-commitment/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure-sources-say-2026-06-07/)[[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/opec-announces-symbolic-oil-output-rise-during-strait-of-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-07/opec-agrees-another-symbolic-quota-hike-for-july-delegates-say). As of June 22, 2026, ongoing high-level discussions in Switzerland have established a framework for a potential final agreement within 60 days, focusing on de-escalation in both Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/usiran-talks-and-mou-explained-what-happened-and-whats-next/)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/first-round-of-us-iran-talks-end-with-encouraging-progress/)[[^]](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.rappler.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-peace-talks-updates-june-22-2026/). Iranian official Araghchi has asserted that oil waivers and asset releases were secured during these talks, although conflicting reports exist [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/06/22/usiran-talks-and-mou-explained-what-happened-and-whats-next/)[[^]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606221995). Despite diplomatic progress, the ceasefire between the US and Iran appears tenuous, marked by recent US strikes on Iranian vessels, and Israel has declared it is not bound by any potential US-Iran accord [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5BfrH--vI)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uslPWqVR-UE).

OPEC+ adjusts quotas; **market** anticipates price shifts based on Strait stability. OPEC+ maintains the flexibility to modify its production quotas in response to evolving **market** conditions and the stability of crucial supply routes [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/05/03/opec-producers-agree-on-june-output-adjustment-and-reaffirm-**market**-stability-commitment/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure-sources-say-2026-06-07/)[[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/opec-announces-symbolic-oil-output-rise-during-strait-of-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-07/opec-agrees-another-symbolic-quota-hike-for-july-delegates-say). The group has implemented incremental and symbolic production quota increases, including approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, and has approved a fourth oil output quota hike since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/05/03/opec-producers-agree-on-june-output-adjustment-and-reaffirm-**market**-stability-commitment/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure-sources-say-2026-06-07/)[[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/opec-announces-symbolic-oil-output-rise-during-strait-of-hormuz-closure)[[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-07/opec-agrees-another-symbolic-quota-hike-for-july-delegates-say). **Market** participants expect that diplomatic advancements leading to normalized supply could result in declines in Brent crude prices, which were trading around **$78.55** per barrel as of June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil). Conversely, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that prices could escalate to nearly **$105** per barrel if restrictions persist in the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://marketcheese.com/forecast/brent/T1RneU1R-invest-in-brent-crude-up-to-107).

## What are the latest H1 2026 Brent crude price forecasts from the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan?

EIA June 2026 Brent Forecast | ~$105/b [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=os)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php?mod=article_inline) |
J.P. Morgan 2Q26 Brent Forecast | $103/b [[^]](https://capital.com/en-int/market-updates/crude-oil-price-forecast-19-05-2026)[[^]](https://energynow.com/2026/05/jp-morgan-sees-brent-staying-in-low-100s-even-if-hormuz-reopens-in-june/)[[^]](https://oilmarketcap.com/jpm-brent-100-to-2026-on-persistent-tightness/) |
EIA 4Q26 Brent Forecast | ~$89/b [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=os)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php?mod=article_inline) |

**Forecasts for H1 2026 Brent crude prices indicate an elevated average**

Forecasts for H1 2026 Brent crude prices indicate an elevated average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent crude oil to average approximately **$105** per barrel for June and July 2026, attributing this to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=os)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php?mod=article_inline). Concurrently, J.P. Morgan anticipated Brent crude averaging **$103** per barrel for the second quarter of 2026, forecasting persistent **market** tightness even with a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://capital.com/en-int/**market**-updates/crude-oil-price-forecast-19-05-2026)[[^]](https://energynow.com/2026/05/jp-morgan-sees-brent-staying-in-low-100s-even-if-hormuz-reopens-in-june/)[[^]](https://oilmarketcap.com/jpm-brent-100-to-2026-on-persistent-tightness/).

Later in 2026, Brent crude price forecasts show a notable decline. The EIA expects Brent crude to decrease to an average of **$89** per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=os)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php?mod=article_inline). J.P. Morgan’s full-year 2026 projection is an average of **$96** per barrel, with specific quarterly averages of **$104** per barrel for the third quarter and **$98** per barrel for the fourth quarter [[^]](https://capital.com/en-int/**market**-updates/crude-oil-price-forecast-19-05-2026)[[^]](https://energynow.com/2026/05/jp-morgan-sees-brent-staying-in-low-100s-even-if-hormuz-reopens-in-june/)[[^]](https://oilmarketcap.com/jpm-brent-100-to-2026-on-persistent-tightness/). While Goldman Sachs revised its Brent crude forecast to an average of **$80** per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, the available information does not include a specific H1 2026 forecast from them [[^]](https://investinglive.com/commodities/goldman-cuts-brent-forecast-to-80-for-2026-75-for-2027-on-hormuz-deal-20260616/)[[^]](https://hk.marketscreener.com/news/major-wall-street-banks-cut-oil-price-forecasts-on-faster-gulf-supply-recovery-update-ce7f5cdfdb8eff21)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-oil-prices-could-grind-lower-amid-the-us-iran-deal)[[^]](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/where-will-oil-prices-go-after-the-hormuz-reopening-deal-goldman-sachs-sees-brent-at-80-537662-2026-06-18). Benchmark Brent oil was trading at approximately **$76** per barrel on June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-oil-prices-could-grind-lower-amid-the-us-iran-deal).

## How has the Brent-WTI spread behaved in H1 2026, and what are the key drivers affecting their price divergence?

Brent-WTI Spread Peak (March 2026) | $25/b (March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424) |
Brent-WTI Spread (June 2026) | $2.46 (June 8, 2026) [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread) |
Cushing Storage Proximity to Floor | Within 2 million barrels [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/12/3311340/0/en/Cushing-crude-stocks-sit-less-than-2-mmbbls-above-operational-floor-amid-global-supply-crisis.html) |

**The Brent-WTI spread significantly widened in early 2026 due to distinct factors**

The Brent-WTI spread significantly widened in early 2026 due to distinct factors. During the first half of 2026, the Brent-WTI crude oil spread experienced a considerable increase, starting the quarter at approximately **$4** per barrel. This spread peaked at **$25** per barrel on March 31, averaging **$11** per barrel for the entire month of March [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424). This widening was primarily driven by elevated shipping costs and reduced oil flows near the Strait of Hormuz, which supported Brent prices. Simultaneously, robust US inventories and potential releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve limited upward pressure on WTI prices [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424).

The Brent-WTI spread narrowed significantly later in the period. Following its peak, the spread began to contract notably, decreasing from **$15.60** per barrel on April 30 to **$2.46** per barrel by June 8, 2026 [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread). By mid-June, physical inventory dynamics became a key determinant of the differential. Specifically, storage levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, were reported to be within approximately 2 million barrels of their operational floor, contributing to a tightening of the WTI hub and impacting the Brent-WTI price relationship [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/12/3311340/0/en/Cushing-crude-stocks-sit-less-than-2-mmbbls-above-operational-floor-amid-global-supply-crisis.html).

## Which public data sources provide historical intraday Brent crude prices that can be used to model the 5:00 PM EDT settlement price?

Free intraday data availability | Limited for modeling purposes [[^]](https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/BZ)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*1/historical-download)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/day/cl)[[^]](https://www.oilpriceapi.com/futures-historical-data-api)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/int/cla) |
High-resolution data access | Requires paid subscriptions [[^]](https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/BZ)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*1/historical-download)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/day/cl)[[^]](https://www.oilpriceapi.com/futures-historical-data-api)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/int/cla) |
ICE Brent settlement window | 19:28:00 to 19:30:00 London time [[^]](https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures)[[^]](https://www.ice.com/brent-crude)[[^]](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/circulars/13165%20Attach%206.pdf) |

**Publicly available, free historical intraday Brent Crude data is limited**

Publicly available, free historical intraday Brent Crude data is limited. This scarcity makes it challenging for modeling purposes, particularly for high-resolution data such as 1-minute bars [[^]](https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/BZ)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*1/historical-download)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/day/cl)[[^]](https://www.oilpriceapi.com/futures-historical-data-api)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/int/cla). To access reliable historical intraday data, specialized financial data providers typically require paid subscriptions. Examples of such providers include FirstRate Data, offering historical intraday Brent Last Day Financial Futures (NYMEX) (BZ) Data; PortaraCQG, which provides historical Crude Oil (Combined) Intraday data; and OilPriceAPI, with its Futures Historical Data API for OHLC Data [[^]](https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/BZ)[[^]](https://www.oilpriceapi.com/futures-historical-data-api)[[^]](https://portaracqg.com/futures/int/cla).

The official ICE Brent Crude futures settlement price is precisely defined. It is not determined at 5:00 PM EDT, but rather calculated as the weighted average price of trades occurring within a specific two-minute settlement window from 19:28:00 to 19:30:00 London time [[^]](https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures)[[^]](https://www.ice.com/brent-crude)[[^]](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/circulars/**13165%**20Attach%206.pdf). Therefore, models aiming to predict a settlement price must align with this specific settlement window definition [[^]](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/circulars/**13165%**20Attach%206.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures/ICE_Futures_Contract_Expiry_Times.pdf). While free historical daily Brent price data is widely available from sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this aggregated data is generally insufficient for accurately modeling intraday settlement windows [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrtem.htm)[[^]](https://datahub.io/core/oil-prices).

## How has institutional positioning in Brent crude futures evolved in Q2 2026, according to CFTC Commitment of Traders data?

Managed Money net long positions | roughly +9,300 contracts (mid-June 2026) [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/)[[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-market-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026) |
Outright fund short positions | Highest since December 2025 (week of June 16, 2026) [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/) |
Fund length decline | Over 21% since late April 2026 [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/)[[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-market-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026) |

**Institutional investors significantly reduced Brent crude length in Q2 2026**

Institutional investors significantly reduced Brent crude length in Q2 2026. Institutional positioning in Brent crude futures experienced a notable shift in mid-Q2 2026, as funds increased their short positions [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/). By mid-June 2026, Managed Money net long positions were approximately +9,300 contracts, reflecting a significant decline in overall fund length since late April 2026 [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/)[[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-**market**-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026).

Outright fund shorts reached multi-month highs amidst **market** uncertainty. In mid-Q2 2026, outright fund shorts reached their highest level since December 2025 by the week of June 16, 2026, with fund length declining by over **21%** since late April 2026 [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/)[[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-**market**-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026). **Market** sentiment for Brent crude during this period was characterized as 'middle of the road' or a 'flip zone' [[^]](https://www.flux.live/reports/cftc-weekly-funds-sell-brent/)[[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-**market**-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026). These shifts occurred alongside Q2 2026 oil **market** dynamics influenced by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding in June 2026, which led to a notable price pullback from late March peaks [[^]](https://cotinsight.com/blog/oil-**market**-cot-hormuz-inventories-2026)[[^]](https://static.poder360.com.br/uploads/2026/06/EIA-Divisao-da-Industria-e-dos-Mercados-Petroliferos-junho-2026.pdf).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Brent crude futures are trading near $79.27–$79.40 per barrel following progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, which included a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final deal and mechanisms to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-eases-as-us-and-iran-agree-60-day-roadmap-in-switzerland-202606220544)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-talks-ease-supply-risk-deutsche-bank-202606220946).** Key catalysts influencing the price through June 30, 2026, include the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the stability of the U.S.-Iran peace talks, and the potential for Iranian oil supply restoration [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/).

**Bullish catalysts include the need for global inventory rebuilding following significant supply losses during the conflict and potential delays in restoring normal shipping operations [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices)[[^]](https://www.nst.com.my/amp/business/corporate/2026/06/1469389/supply-restocking-may-support-crude-above-pre-conflict-levels).** Conversely, bearish catalysts include the easing of geopolitical tensions, a global economic slowdown, and weakening oil consumption in China [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices). The demand for strategic reserve replenishment by major importers is also a key catalyst [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/).

**Key takeaway.** The EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent prices to average **$95**/bbl in June and July due to lingering supply disruption effects, before declining later in the year as Strait of Hormuz flows incrementally resume and global inventory builds pressure prices downward [[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/oil-forecast-and-price-predictions-h2-2026-prices-are-expected-to-moderate-ce7f5dd2df8ff72d)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-june-2026)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=os).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** June 30, 2026
- **Expiration:** July 07, 2026
- **Closes:** June 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Brent crude futures are trading near **$79.27**–**$79.40** per barrel following progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, which included a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final deal and mechanisms to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [^] [^] .
- Key catalysts influencing the price through June 30, 2026, include the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the stability of the U.S.-Iran peace talks, and the potential for Iranian oil supply restoration [^] .
- Bullish catalysts include the need for global inventory rebuilding following significant supply losses during the conflict and potential delays in restoring normal shipping operations [^] [^] .
- Conversely, bearish catalysts include the easing of geopolitical tensions, a global economic slowdown, and weakening oil consumption in China [^] .

## Related Research Reports

- [Brent crude oil price on June 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?](/markets/commodities/oil-gas/brent-crude-oil-price-on-june-08-2026-at-5-00-pm-edt/)
- [Brent crude oil price on May 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?](/markets/commodities/oil-gas/brent-crude-oil-price-on-may-06-2026-at-5-00-pm-edt/)
- [Crude oil (Brent) price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/commodities/oil-gas/crude-oil-brent-price-on-apr-30-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
- [Brent crude oil price on May 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?](/markets/commodities/oil-gas/brent-crude-oil-price-on-may-01-2026-at-5-00-pm-edt/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBRENTMON-26MAY2917-T98.99: NO (May 29, 2026)
- KXBRENTMON-26MAY2917-T96.99: NO (May 29, 2026)
- KXBRENTMON-26MAY2917-T94.99: NO (May 29, 2026)
- KXBRENTMON-26MAY2917-T92.99: NO (May 29, 2026)
- KXBRENTMON-26MAY2917-T90.99: YES (May 29, 2026)

## Disclaimer

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