# CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026

total restaurants in 2026

Updated: July 29, 2026

Category: Companies

Tags: KPIs

HTML: /markets/companies/kpis/cava-total-restaurants-in-fiscal-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that CAVA will have Above 500 total restaurants in fiscal 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - CAVA will likely exceed 510 restaurants, driven by updated 2026 guidance.** - Historical accuracy and potential overperformance suggest total restaurants will surpass 515.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98%** **probability** vs 96c **market** implies 2pp gap, 1.0x payout on CAVA's expansion and historical overperformance.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 520 | 41.0% | 15.0% | Market higher by 26.0pp |
| Above 505 | 92.0% | 97.0% | Model higher by 5.0pp |
| Above 500 | 94.0% | 98.0% | Model higher by 4.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 520 | 41.0% | 15.0% |
| Above 505 | 92.0% | 97.0% |
| Above 500 | 94.0% | 98.0% |
| Above 530 | 9.0% | 1.0% |
| Above 515 | 61.0% | 66.3% |
| Above 510 | 83.0% | 95.0% |
| Above 525 | 16.0% | 5.0% |

- Expiration: May 26, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market experienced a sharp, vertical repricing on extremely low volume. The probability of CAVA meeting its fiscal 2026 restaurant count target jumped from 1.0% to a current price of 96.0% over the course of a single trading day. This entire move occurred on a total volume of just 10 contracts. Such thin liquidity indicates the price was set by a minimal number of participants and may not reflect a broad consensus. With price history limited to a single day's spike, no technical support or resistance levels can be established.

The catalyst for the sudden price move is not contained within the provided research materials. The supplied context concerns an Argentine soccer club, which is unrelated to the CAVA restaurant chain that is the subject of the market. The abrupt shift in sentiment from highly improbable to near-certain suggests that traders acted on external information, likely related to company guidance on unit growth. The current 96.0% price implies very high conviction among the few active traders, but the lack of trading depth makes this signal fragile.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 July 29, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

**Outcome:** Above 515

**What happened:** There is no evidence of a 90.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026" on July 29, 2026 [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Why+CAVA+Group+%28CAVA%29+Stock+Is+Up+Today). The provided information indicates the query may be referencing a misinterpretation of a $90 price target set by Morgan Stanley on July 15, 2026, which led to a 6.1% stock increase for CAVA but is unrelated to a prediction market's percentage point movement on restaurant count [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/stockstory-2026-7-15-why-is-cava-cava-stock-soaring-today)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/cava-is-not-a-cheap-stock-investors-should-buy-it-anyway-morgan-stanley-says.html)[[^]](https://business.theantlersamerican.com/theantlersamerican/article/stockstory-2026-7-15-why-is-cava-cava-stock-soaring-today)[[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Why+CAVA+Group+%28CAVA%29+Stock+Is+Up+Today). Therefore, no primary driver for the described market movement on July 29, 2026, can be identified, and social media activity was irrelevant as no such event is confirmed.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on CAVA's total number of restaurants in fiscal year 2026. A YES resolution occurs if the total number of restaurants is *above* the specified numerical threshold for a given contract (e.g., above 520), while a NO resolution occurs if the total is at or *below* that threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 25 at 4:00 PM EST.

## Market Discussion

CAVA Group announced 459 total restaurants at the end of the first quarter of 2026 (ended April 19, 2026), and on May 19, 2026, it raised its fiscal full-year 2026 guidance to 75–77 net new restaurant openings [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Q1-2026-Earnings-Supplemental-Materials.pdf)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1092617)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/is-cava-stock-undervalued-in-2026-tikrs-213-target-implies-around-139-total-return)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/heres-why-cava-stock-raised-guidance-after-a-7-traffic-quarter-despite-macro-pressure). With 439 restaurants at the end of fiscal 2025, this guidance implies an estimated fiscal 2026 year-end total of 514 to 516 restaurants [[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2960839/why-investors-need-to-take-advantage-of-these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-now?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2960839)[[^]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/07/24/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-grows-position-in-cava-group-inc-cava.html)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959712/cava-group-cava-gains-as-market-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2959712)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959578/will-cava-cava-beat-estimates-again-in-its-next-earnings-report?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_7-2959578)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2958942/cava-group-inc-cava-is-a-trending-stock-facts-to-know-before-betting-on-it?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|most_searched_stocks-2958942)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2955883/cava-group-cava-gains-as-market-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2955883). Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consistently framing CAVA as a high-growth expansion story with strong new store productivity [[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/heres-why-cava-stock-raised-guidance-after-a-7-traffic-quarter-despite-macro-pressure)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1093740/cava-gets-fresh-buy-rating-at-ubs-as-growth-story-stands-out-in-tough-macro-environment-1093740.html)[[^]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-cava/cava-group/future)[[^]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/cava-stock-ubs-turns-bullish-compelling-growth-restaurant-expansion/cZKTBOPR7ck)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2960839/why-investors-need-to-take-advantage-of-these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-now?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2960839)[[^]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/07/24/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-grows-position-in-cava-group-inc-cava.html)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959712/cava-group-cava-gains-as-market-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2959712)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959578/will-cava-cava-beat-estimates-again-in-its-next-earnings-report?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_7-2959578)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2958942/cava-group-inc-cava-is-a-trending-stock-facts-to-know-before-betting-on-it?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|most_searched_stocks-2958942)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2955883/cava-group-cava-gains-as-market-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2955883).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 500 | 91% | 97% | 94% | $523.01 | $423.01 |
| Above 505 | 91% | 93% | 92% | $640.62 | $372 |
| Above 510 | 81% | 89% | 83% | $278 | $122.01 |
| Above 515 | 54% | 62% | 61% | $319.11 | $145.11 |
| Above 520 | 34% | 42% | 41% | $1,144.24 | $511.24 |
| Above 525 | 16% | 23% | 16% | $56.01 | $55.01 |
| Above 530 | 8% | 9% | 9% | $360.01 | $203.01 |

## What macroeconomic trends in the final three quarters of fiscal 2026 could cause CAVA to revise its new restaurant opening guidance?

FY2026 Net New Restaurant Openings Guidance | 75 to 77 [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/19/cava-cava-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |
Guidance Date | May 19, 2026 [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/19/cava-cava-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |
Restaurant Operators No New Locations H2 2026 | 57% [[^]](https://www.restaurant365.com/guides/2026-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-mid-year-report/) |

**CAVA’s restaurant opening guidance faces risks from labor market challenges**

CAVA’s restaurant opening guidance faces risks from labor **market** challenges. CAVA Group’s fiscal full-year 2026 guidance for net new restaurant openings is currently 75 to 77, as stated on May 19, 2026 [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/19/cava-cava-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/). Management previously increased this guidance, citing that the primary constraint on their pace of expansion is the ability to build a robust pipeline of leaders ready for new roles [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=7)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=4). Consequently, macroeconomic trends that exacerbate labor availability issues, drive wage inflation, or reduce consumer demand to an extent that impairs CAVA’s ability to adequately staff, train, and launch new restaurants with the desired operational quality represent the clearest risk for a revision to this guidance [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=7)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=4).

Various economic pressures could complicate CAVA's future restaurant expansion plans. Macroeconomic risks emerging in the second half of fiscal 2026 that could necessitate revisions to CAVA's expansion guidance include sustained cost pressures across labor, food, construction, and insurance sectors [[^]](https://qsr.pro/articles/restaurant-industry-h1-2026-outlook-no-catalysts-analysts-gordon-2026)[[^]](https://www.clearcogs.com/blog/restaurant-demand-outlook-h2-2026/)[[^]](https://www.restaurant365.com/guides/2026-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-mid-year-report/)[[^]](https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/media/press-releases/persistent-cost-increases-and-enduring-demand-will-shape-the-restaurant-industry-in-2026/). Additionally, tightening household budgets could reduce guest traffic, while elevated interest rates might impact capital expenditures, and geopolitical uncertainty could disrupt supply chains [[^]](https://qsr.pro/articles/restaurant-industry-h1-2026-outlook-no-catalysts-analysts-gordon-2026)[[^]](https://www.clearcogs.com/blog/restaurant-demand-outlook-h2-2026/)[[^]](https://www.restaurant365.com/guides/2026-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-mid-year-report/)[[^]](https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/media/press-releases/persistent-cost-increases-and-enduring-demand-will-shape-the-restaurant-industry-in-2026/). These conditions could make it more difficult to recruit and train leaders for new stores, put pressure on unit economics, or diminish **confidence** in the planned opening pace if new-store sales or traffic decline [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=7)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CAVA/CAVA_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260729%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260729T075421Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=de0e779359ff00f082dc8c7abeafd19a5eaa914f9f85a842818dbb6ace218d97#page=4).

Broader industry trends suggest caution in restaurant expansion efforts. This outlook aligns with the wider restaurant industry, where a significant **57%** of operators do not plan to open new locations in the second half of 2026 [[^]](https://www.restaurant365.com/guides/2026-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-mid-year-report/). This indicates a general shift away from aggressive scaling towards a more sustainable and intentional approach to site selection [[^]](https://www.restaurant365.com/guides/2026-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-mid-year-report/).

## How accurate was CAVA's new restaurant opening guidance in fiscal years 2024 and 2025 compared to its actual results?

FY2024 Actual Net New Openings | 58 [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250224142303/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2024-Results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-25-007882.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828025007750/earningsrelease2024q4.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2024/CAVA-Group-Reports-Third-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828024047200/earningsrelease2024q3.htm) |
FY2024 Final Guidance Range | 56 to 58 [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250224142303/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2024-Results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-25-007882.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828025007750/earningsrelease2024q4.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2024/CAVA-Group-Reports-Third-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828024047200/earningsrelease2024q3.htm) |
FY2025 Actual Net New Openings | 72 [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260224966783/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2025-Results)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250812501347/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-011296.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2025/CAVA-Group-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx) |

**CAVA accurately met its restaurant opening targets in fiscal year 2024**

CAVA accurately met its restaurant opening targets in fiscal year 2024. The company demonstrated high accuracy in its new restaurant opening guidance for the year. CAVA's final guidance for net new restaurant openings was 56 to 58, which represented an increase from an earlier projection of 54 to 57. The company successfully achieved 58 net new openings, aligning precisely with the top end of its raised guidance [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250224142303/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2024-Results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-25-007882.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828025007750/earningsrelease2024q4.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2024/CAVA-Group-Reports-Third-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828024047200/earningsrelease2024q3.htm).

CAVA exceeded its restaurant opening projections for fiscal year 2025. The company initially guided for 62 to 66 net new restaurant openings. This guidance was subsequently raised twice; first to 64 to 68 in May 2025, and then to 68 to 70 in August 2025. Ultimately, CAVA surpassed its final guidance range, achieving 72 net new restaurant openings for fiscal 2025 [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260224966783/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2025-Results)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250812501347/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-011296.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2025/CAVA-Group-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx).

## How does CAVA's projected new unit growth rate for fiscal 2026 compare to fast-casual peers like Chipotle (CMG) and Sweetgreen (SG)?

CAVA 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | 75 to 77 [[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CAVA/8-k-cava-group-inc-reports-material-event-af1dcc1dc9e0.html)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx) |
Chipotle 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 350 to 370 [[^]](https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://ir.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS) |
Sweetgreen 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | Approximately 13 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/chipotle-2026-growth-plan-cannibalization-market-tam-2601/)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260507512857/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/) |

**CAVA projects substantial new unit expansion for fiscal year 2026**

CAVA projects substantial new unit expansion for fiscal year 2026. The company has provided guidance for 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings during this period [[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CAVA/8-k-cava-group-inc-reports-material-event-af1dcc1dc9e0.html)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx). Based on CAVA's 459 restaurants operating at the end of Q1 2026, the company anticipates a total of 516 to 518 restaurants by the close of fiscal year 2026 [[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CAVA/8-k-cava-group-inc-reports-material-event-af1dcc1dc9e0.html)[[^]](https://qsr.pro/articles/cava-billion-dollar-revenue-milestone-mediterranean-fast-casual-expansion-2026).

CAVA's growth rate differs significantly from fast-casual competitors. For the same fiscal year, Chipotle (CMG) has projected a considerably higher range of 350 to 370 new restaurant openings [[^]](https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://ir.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS). Sweetgreen (SG), conversely, anticipates approximately 13 net new restaurant openings for fiscal year 2026 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/chipotle-2026-growth-plan-cannibalization-**market**-tam-2601/)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260507512857/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/).

## What do alternative data sources, such as construction permit filings and real estate leasing data, indicate about CAVA's new restaurant pipeline for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

Net new restaurants opened Q1 2026 | 20 (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx) |
Total restaurants | 459 (as of April 19, 2026) [[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx) |
FY 2026 net new openings guidance | 75 to 77 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm) |

**Alternative data sources, including construction permit filings and real estate leasing information, suggest CAVA's new restaurant pipeline aligns with its expansion trajectory and company guidance [[^]](https://crehq.com/companies/cava/)[[^]](https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/TABS/Projects/TABS2026005084)[[^]](https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/feb/10/cava-okd-to-build-out-at-former-baymeadows-burger-barn/)[[^]](https://urbynai.com/news/cava-university-circle-cleveland-permit)[[^]](https://www.zabalist.com/projects/TABS2026005084)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm)**

Alternative data sources, including construction permit filings and real estate leasing information, suggest CAVA's new restaurant pipeline aligns with its expansion trajectory and company guidance [[^]](https://crehq.com/companies/cava/)[[^]](https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/TABS/Projects/TABS2026005084)[[^]](https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/feb/10/cava-okd-to-build-out-at-former-baymeadows-burger-barn/)[[^]](https://urbynai.com/news/cava-university-circle-cleveland-permit)[[^]](https://www.zabalist.com/projects/TABS2026005084)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm). CAVA successfully opened 20 net new restaurants in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, bringing its total to 459 locations as of April 19, 2026 [[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx). The company has set guidance for 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the full fiscal year 2026, which implies an expectation of 55 to 57 net new openings during the remainder of the year [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cava/0001628280-26-036461.htm).

This expansion is corroborated by construction permits and entry into new markets. Alternative data corroborates this growth through recent construction permit filings observed in locations such as Austin, Jacksonville, and Cleveland, alongside tracked real estate leasing activity for new build-outs and tenant infills through mid-2026 [[^]](https://crehq.com/companies/cava/)[[^]](https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/TABS/Projects/TABS2026005084)[[^]](https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/feb/10/cava-okd-to-build-out-at-former-baymeadows-burger-barn/)[[^]](https://urbynai.com/news/cava-university-circle-cleveland-permit)[[^]](https://www.zabalist.com/projects/TABS2026005084). CAVA has also broadened its **market** presence by entering new areas including Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus, with additional Columbus locations already planned, indicating a widening pipeline beyond its established core markets [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2960839/why-investors-need-to-take-advantage-of-these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-now?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2960839)[[^]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/07/24/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-grows-position-in-cava-group-inc-cava.html)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959712/cava-group-cava-gains-as-**market**-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2959712)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959578/will-cava-cava-beat-estimates-again-in-its-next-earnings-report?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_7-2959578)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2958942/cava-group-inc-cava-is-a-trending-stock-facts-to-know-before-betting-on-it?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|most_searched_stocks-2958942)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2955883/cava-group-cava-gains-as-**market**-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2955883). However, while CAVA typically leases its restaurants with standard 10-year terms and 5-year renewal options, public data does not provide a specific permit-by-permit or lease-by-lease count for all future signed restaurants. Consequently, it is not possible to confirm the precise number of remaining fiscal 2026 openings using these alternative data sources alone [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026036461/earningsrelease2026q1.htm)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2960839/why-investors-need-to-take-advantage-of-these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-now?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2960839)[[^]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/07/24/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-grows-position-in-cava-group-inc-cava.html)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959712/cava-group-cava-gains-as-**market**-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2959712)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2959578/will-cava-cava-beat-estimates-again-in-its-next-earnings-report?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_7-2959578)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2958942/cava-group-inc-cava-is-a-trending-stock-facts-to-know-before-betting-on-it?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|most_searched_stocks-2958942)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2955883/cava-group-cava-gains-as-**market**-dips-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-tale_of_the_tape|yseop_template_6-2955883).

## Which financial metrics in CAVA's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the strongest indicators of their ability to achieve their year-end store count target?

Fiscal 2026 Net New Openings Guidance | 75 to 77 locations [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results) |
Fiscal 2026 Pre-opening Costs | $22.0 to $22.5 million [[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results) |
Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.7% [[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results) |

**Pre-opening costs are a key financial indicator for store expansion**

Pre-opening costs are a key financial indicator for store expansion. CAVA has increased its fiscal 2026 guidance for net new restaurant openings to between 75 and 77 locations [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results). The company's updated pre-opening cost range of **$22.0** to **$22.5** million for fiscal 2026 serves as a direct financial indicator of the scale and timing of this planned restaurant pipeline expansion [[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results). Monitoring these costs in the Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports would reflect progress toward achieving the year-end store count target.

Robust financial performance underpins CAVA's significant unit growth plans. Strong financial performance, including Q1 2026 same-restaurant sales growth of **9.7%** and restaurant-level profit margins of **25.1%**, provides the financial liquidity and internal **confidence** necessary for the planned capital expenditure [[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results). As of April 19, 2026, CAVA had reached a total of 459 restaurants, having opened 20 net new locations during Q1 2026 [[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260519643333/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results). It is important to note that the fiscal calendar's Q1 spans 16 weeks, while subsequent quarters are 12 weeks each, which naturally front-loads store opening activity [[^]](https://qsrresearchhub.com/article/cava-growth-machine-operations-2026/). This seasonality should be considered when evaluating progress in Q2 and Q3.

## What Could Change the Odds

**CAVA Group updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings, an increase from its earlier guidance of 74 to 76 [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf).** As of the first quarter ended April 19, 2026, CAVA had 459 total restaurants [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf). The company's updated 2026 full-year outlook includes same-restaurant sales growth of **4.5%** to **6.5%**, restaurant-level profit margins of **23.7%** to **24.3%**, and Adjusted EBITDA of **$181.0** to **$191.0** million [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260519643333/cava-group-reports-first-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf).

**Key takeaway.** Bullish catalysts for CAVA include strong same-restaurant sales growth driven by traffic, successful Midwest expansion, and digital channel momentum [[^]](https://wp.jackhui.com.au/stock-research-cava-cava-group-inc/)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/cava-grew-revenue-32-and-opened-20-restaurants-last-quarter-the-stock-is-down-30-from-its-high)[[^]](https://rockflow.ai/stocks/cava)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/cava-stock-is-down-nearly-30-from-its-high-heres-why-the-stock-has-pulled-back-since).

**Key takeaway.** Conversely, bearish catalysts comprise a high valuation (P/E ratio), potential margin pressure from new menu items like Glazed Salmon, increased competitive intensity, and the challenge of lapping strong prior-year comparisons [[^]](https://wp.jackhui.com.au/stock-research-cava-cava-group-inc/)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/cava-grew-revenue-32-and-opened-20-restaurants-last-quarter-the-stock-is-down-30-from-its-high)[[^]](https://rockflow.ai/stocks/cava)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/cava-stock-is-down-nearly-30-from-its-high-heres-why-the-stock-has-pulled-back-since).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 26, 2027
- **Closes:** May 26, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- CAVA Group updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings, an increase from its earlier guidance of 74 to 76 [^] [^] [^] .
- As of the first quarter ended April 19, 2026, CAVA had 459 total restaurants [^] [^] [^] .
- The company's updated 2026 full-year outlook includes same-restaurant sales growth of **4.5%** to **6.5%**, restaurant-level profit margins of **23.7%** to **24.3%**, and Adjusted EBITDA of **$181.0** to **$191.0** million [^] [^] [^] .
- Bullish catalysts for CAVA include strong same-restaurant sales growth driven by traffic, successful Midwest expansion, and digital channel momentum [^] [^] [^] [^] .

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