# Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

On Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 2, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: BTC
Hourly

HTML: /markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Bitcoin price range to be **$66,800** to 67,299.99 on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - March 2026 options identify $75,000 as a key Bitcoin price magnet.** - Q1 2026 saw net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score compression signals potential for significant price drops.
- June 2026 options show "downside insurance" stacking in the **$75**k-**$85**k range.
- March 2026 experienced positive Bitcoin ETF inflows and stable Federal Reserve rates.
- Digital Asset **Market** Clarity Act had not passed by January 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s 3c for Below **$60,000** is **1%** higher than **model**'s **2%**, potentially valuing Q1 2026 net outflows more.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 3.0% | 2.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 2.0% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 3.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: -1.0pp
- Expected Return: -33.8%
- R-Score: -0.13
- Total Volume: $127,350
- 24h Volume: $48,389
- Open Interest: $95,130

- Expiration: April 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited a sideways trend since its inception, trading within a narrow band of 1.0% to 5.0% probability. The contract began trading at a price of 1.0%, representing the low end of its range, before gradually climbing to its current price of 3.0%. The most significant price movement was the increase from 2.0% to 3.0%, which, according to the sample data, was accompanied by a notable surge in volume. This suggests that the move to the 3.0% level was driven by a meaningful increase in trading activity and market conviction, rather than being an unsubstantiated price drift. As no external context or news was provided, the cause for this shift appears internal to the market's trading dynamics.

The chart indicates a potential support level at the market's starting price of 1.0%, which has served as a floor for the contract's value. Conversely, the 5.0% mark has acted as a resistance level, capping the upside price movement so far. The current price of 3.0% is a key point of interest, having been established with significant volume, suggesting it is a level of temporary consensus among traders. Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment that assigns a very low probability to this outcome occurring. Despite the price tripling from its initial 1.0% offering, the current 3.0% valuation indicates that traders remain highly skeptical, with the price action showing a period of consolidation and price discovery within this low-probability range.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 3, 2026, is between $66,800 and $67,299.99; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Trading is open from March 27, 2026, at 4 PM EDT until April 3, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, with payouts projected for 5:06 PM EDT. The official price for settlement is the average of 60 BRTI prices collected during the minute leading up to expiration, verified by CF Benchmarks.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## How did market expectations for March 2026 Fed rates compare to projections?

Probability of March 2026 Rate Hold | 99.4% (Q1 2026 CME FedWatch Tool) [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/flash-news/post/cme-fedwatch-shows-odds-of-no-fed-rate-cut-in-march-limited-easing-priced-in-by-june) |
Fed Longer-Run Rate Projection | 2.5% (Final 2025 Dot Plot) [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20251210.pdf) |
Implied Federal Funds Rate March 2026 | Not explicitly stated in available research [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/689458) |

**Market participants expected the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in March 2026**

**Market** participants expected the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in March 2026. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool's activity in Q1 2026, **market** participants anticipated a strong likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding its federal funds rate during the March 2026 FOMC meeting. Reports indicated a **78.3%** **probability** of a rate hold [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/689458), with another source showing an even higher **99.4%** **probability** of the Fed holding rates steady in March [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/flash-news/post/cme-fedwatch-shows-odds-of-no-fed-rate-cut-in-march-limited-easing-priced-in-by-june). These figures reflect a strong **market** expectation for no change to the federal funds rate at that specific meeting. However, the available research does not explicitly provide a numerical "implied federal funds rate" from the CME FedWatch Tool for March 2026; rather, it indicates the **market**'s expectation for the prevailing rate at that time to remain unchanged [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/689458).

A precise comparison to the Fed's **2.5%** long-term rate is difficult. In comparison, the Federal Reserve's final 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released on December 10, 2025, included the FOMC participants' median projection for the longer-run federal funds rate. This "dot plot" projection for the long-term rate was **2.5%** [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20251210.pdf). To directly compare the **market**'s implied rate for March 2026 with this long-term projection, the specific federal funds rate prevailing at the time of the March 2026 FOMC meeting, which the **market** expected to "hold," would be needed. Without this specific prevailing rate from the provided sources, a precise numerical comparison between the **market**'s short-term implied rate and the Fed's longer-run projection of **2.5%** cannot be definitively quantified.

## What Were US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows in Q1 2026?

Q1 2026 Cumulative Flows | Overall net outflows [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows) |
March 2026 Inflows | Approximately $1.3 billion to $1.32 billion [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/), [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows); some reports indicate $2.5 billion [[^]](https://coira.io/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-reverse-outflows-march-2026) |
Comparison to Q3/Q4 2025 | Data not available in provided sources [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html) |

**US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows in Q1 2026**

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows in Q1 2026. Major U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, concluded the first quarter of 2026 with overall net outflows [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows). This trend occurred despite a significant positive shift in March 2026, which recorded the first monthly inflows of the year [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/) and the first monthly gains observed since October [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/01/bitcoin-etfs-post-first-inflows-since-october-as-price-stabilizes), [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/). These March 2026 inflows were reported to be approximately **$1.3** billion [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/) to **$1.32** billion [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows), with another report indicating total inflows reached **$2.5** billion for the month [[^]](https://coira.io/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-reverse-outflows-march-2026).

Comprehensive quarterly flow comparisons are not possible with current data. While the first quarter of 2026 ultimately ended with net outflows [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows), the provided sources do not detail specific cumulative net outflow figures for the entire quarter. Furthermore, the available information lacks any data regarding net inflows or outflows for the preceding quarters of Q3 2025 or Q4 2025. Consequently, a thorough comparison of the rate of change of these flows between Q1 2026 and the previous two quarters cannot be established from the research provided.

## What is Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Outlook by February 2026?

Recent MVRV Z-Score (2025 cycle signal) | 2.46 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-mvrv-score-2-46-flow-based-signal-2025-cycle-2604/) |
Recent MVRV Z-Score observation | 0.4 [[^]](https://nakamotonotes.com/blog/1743) |
Projected Feb 2026 Bitcoin price change | -30% [[^]](https://www.fastmr.com/bitcoins-brutal-february-2026/) |

**Current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score observations reflect recent market behavior**

Current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score observations reflect recent **market** behavior. Recent values for Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score include 2.46, identified as a flow-based signal for the 2025 cycle [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-mvrv-score-2-46-flow-based-signal-2025-cycle-2604/), 0.4 [[^]](https://nakamotonotes.com/blog/1743), and 2.41 [[^]](https://nakamotonotes.com/blog/587). This metric has also been observed to compress to levels last seen when Bitcoin was priced approximately at **$29,000** [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:a1013cc68094b:0-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-compresses-to-levels-last-seen-near-29-000/). While these data points describe the MVRV Z-Score's recent and current state, the available research does not provide a projected trend for the metric by February 2026. Furthermore, it lacks comparative analysis of the MVRV Z-Score's pattern since the April 2024 halving against equivalent post-halving periods in the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles.

Future forecasts predict significant Bitcoin price volatility by February 2026. Specifically, one projection details a "brutal February 2026" for Bitcoin, expecting the cryptocurrency to experience a **30%** loss of value within 30 days, which would significantly impact the broader crypto **market** [[^]](https://www.fastmr.com/bitcoins-brutal-february-2026/). However, despite this substantial price movement prediction, the provided sources do not offer specific MVRV Z-Score figures for this future period. They also do not include explicit comparisons of the post-April 2024 halving MVRV Z-Score patterns to those observed during the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles.

## What Are Key Bitcoin Options Insights for March-June 2026?

March 2026 OI | $14 billion, $75,000 price magnet [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet) |
June 2026 Put Interest | Significant in $75,000-$85,000 range [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/) |
Implied Volatility Skew | Tracked for Deribit future expiries [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew6Months?a=BTC&e=deribit) |

**Bitcoin options for March 2026 show significant bullish sentiment**

Bitcoin options for March 2026 show significant bullish sentiment. Deribit Bitcoin options contracts expiring in March 2026 exhibit a substantial open interest of approximately **$14** billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). Within the **$55,000** to **$75,000** strike range, the **$75,000** strike price has emerged as a notable "price magnet," predominantly influenced by call options, which suggests a generally bullish outlook for this expiry [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). This trend aligns with broader **market** observations in Bitcoin derivatives, which indicate significant total open interest and an overall prevalence of call options [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-43-75b-open-interest-call-dominance-2603/).

June 2026 options reflect hedging interest and increased puts. For the June 2026 expiry, **market** participants are accumulating "downside insurance," which is evident through a notable increase in put options [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/). This concentration of put interest is particularly pronounced within the **$75,000** to **$85,000** strike range, indicating a strategic intent to hedge against potential price declines [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/). Furthermore, metrics like the 25 Delta Skew Normalized, which represent the implied volatility skew for Deribit, offer valuable insights into the relative pricing of options for expiries extending to June 2026 [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew6Months?a=BTC&e=deribit).

## What is the Status of U.S. Crypto Legislation by January 2026?

Legislative Status by Jan 2026 | Not passed both House and Senate [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/01/25/the-big-u-s-crypto-bill-is-on-the-move-here-is-what-it-means-for-everyday-users) |
Proposed Primary Regulator | CFTC for digital asset commodities [[^]](https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/what-is-the-clarity-act-digital-asset-market-structure-explained-2026) |
Bitcoin Spot Market Jurisdiction | CFTC primary jurisdiction [[^]](https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/what-is-the-clarity-act-digital-asset-market-structure-explained-2026) |

**The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act had not passed by January 2026**

The Digital Asset **Market** Clarity Act had not passed by January 2026. By January 2026, comprehensive U.S. crypto **market** structure legislation, specifically the proposed Digital Asset **Market** Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633), had not been enacted into law by both the House and Senate [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/01/25/the-big-u-s-crypto-bill-is-on-the-move-here-is-what-it-means-for-everyday-users). This bill, intended as a successor to prior efforts like the FIT21 Act, was described as "on the move" and "gaining momentum," with the Senate advancing its rules and releasing full text [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text). Despite this progress, including the availability of various versions from House and Senate committees, the legislation was still moving through the legislative process and had not yet become law [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr3633/text).

The proposed Act grants the CFTC primary Bitcoin spot **market** jurisdiction. Although not yet passed by January 2026, the Digital Asset **Market** Clarity Act of 2025 explicitly assigns primary jurisdiction over the Bitcoin spot **market** to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [[^]](https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/what-is-the-clarity-act-digital-asset-**market**-structure-explained-2026). A key aim of this legislation is to establish a clear regulatory framework by designating the CFTC as the primary regulator for digital assets identified as commodities, a classification that includes Bitcoin [[^]](https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/what-is-the-clarity-act-digital-asset-**market**-structure-explained-2026). This provision helps clarify the jurisdictional roles between the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within the digital asset sector [[^]](http://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/the-facts-the-clarity-act).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 03, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 10, 2026
- **Closes:** April 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTC-26APR0211-T77799.99: NO (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXBTC-26APR0211-T59200: NO (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXBTC-26APR0211-B77750: NO (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXBTC-26APR0211-B77650: NO (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXBTC-26APR0211-B77550: NO (Apr 02, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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