# Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? On Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST Updated: February 13, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: BTC Hourly HTML: /markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-13-2026-at-5pm-est/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Bitcoin's price to be between **$69,000** and **$69,499.99** on February 13, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Persistent US Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows create strong bearish pressure.** - Dense liquidation zones below **$66**k amplify Bitcoin price volatility. - Macroeconomic headwinds and weak earnings reinforce a defensive **market** posture. - Bayesian update shifts **probability** mass downwards, increasing lower price likelihood. - Standard Chartered warns of potential Bitcoin decline due to ETF outflows. - Major US crypto exchange Q4 loss adds further **market** pressure. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market**'s **22.5%** (22c) exceeds Octagon's **14%** **model** **probability**, suggesting overvaluation amidst persistent ETF outflows. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 22.5% | 13.7% | Market higher by 8.8pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 13.7% (Yes) - Market Probability: 22.5% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: -8.8pp - Expected Return: -39.1% - R-Score: -1.26 - Total Volume: $518,921 - 24h Volume: $132,234 - Open Interest: $363,330 - Expiration: February 13, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The price action for this prediction market was characterized by a prolonged period of low probability, trading in a narrow range between 5.0% and 6.0%. This indicates that for most of the contract's duration, the market assigned a very low likelihood to Bitcoin's price landing in the $69,000 to $69,499.99 range. This stable, sideways trend was dramatically interrupted on February 13, 2026, by a significant spike of 33.0 percentage points, which propelled the contract's price from 6.0% to its current level of 39.0%. According to the provided context, this sharp upward movement was directly caused by the news that Truth Social had registered two crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), an event traders interpreted as a major positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency's price. The volume patterns strongly support the significance of this price event. Trading volume was minimal during the initial phase of low probability but surged alongside the price increase, as indicated by the high volume sample point coinciding with the 39.0% price. This high volume confirms strong market conviction behind the move. The chart establishes a clear prior support level around the 5-6% mark and a new resistance, or ceiling, at the current 39.0% price. Overall, the chart illustrates a powerful and sudden shift in market sentiment. Initially bearish on this price target, reflecting the broader market downturn where Bitcoin traded near $66,000, traders rapidly reassessed the probability following the ETF news. The current 39.0% price suggests the market now sees this outcome as a plausible scenario, reflecting renewed optimism for a price recovery into the high $60k range by the contract's resolution. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 February 13, 2026: 33.0pp spike Price increased from 6.0% to 39.0% **Outcome:** $69,000 to 69,499.99 **What happened:** The primary driver of the 33.0 percentage point spike in the "Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?" prediction market for the "$69,000 to 69,499.99" outcome was the announcement that Truth Social, founded by former President Trump, registered two crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the U.S [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202602138791/truth-social-registers-two-crypto-etfs). Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Trump+Media%E2%80%99s+Truth+Social+Files+SEC+Registration+for+Two+Crypto+ETFs). This news, specifically concerning a "Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF," broke around 12:48 PM ET (17:48 GMT) on February 13, 2026, several hours before the market's 5 PM EST close [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202602138791/truth-social-registers-two-crypto-etfs). This significant development, linking Bitcoin to a prominent social media platform and a high-profile figure with previously reported pro-crypto sentiments, led to a rapid positive shift in market sentiment and increased the perceived probability of Bitcoin reaching the higher price range [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Trump+Media%E2%80%99s+Truth+Social+Files+SEC+Registration+for+Two+Crypto+ETFs). This social media-related news acted as a primary driver for the prediction market movement [[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202602138791/truth-social-registers-two-crypto-etfs). ## Contract Snapshot A YES resolution occurs if the Bitcoin price falls within the market's unstated specified range at 5 PM EST today. Conversely, a NO resolution triggers if the Bitcoin price is outside this range at the same time. The market's resolution deadline is 5 PM EST today, and no special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content. ## Market Discussion As of February 13, 2026, discussions around Bitcoin's price indicate a market characterized by extreme fear and consolidation, with the asset generally trading within a range of $60,000 to $70,000, despite a slight rebound to around $67,000-$69,000 on this day [[^]](https://www.whalesbook.com/news/English/crypto/Bitcoins-Extreme-Sentiment-Sways-Market-Amid-Capital-Shift/698e70c6119a61fe896ea330). While some experts predict further downside, even suggesting a drop to $50,000, others view the current phase as a "capitulation" before a potential structural recovery, with some long-term forecasts targeting $98,000-$101,000 by month-end or higher into 2026 [[^]](https://coindcx.com/blog/price-predictions/bitcoin-price-weekly/). The sentiment is heavily influenced by factors such as institutional de-risking, ETF outflows, miner selling, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a divergence in short-term bearish outlooks versus long-term bullish expectations [[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-price-prediction-range-bound/). ## What Are Bitcoin's Critical Liquidation Zones for February 13, 2026? Estimated Long Liquidation Below $65k | $675 million [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-65k-liquidation-trap-675m-flow-event-2602) | Short Liquidation Cluster Range | $68,300-$69,200 [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022229564915904826) | Key Upside Liquidation Target | $72,000 [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2017594316600836446) | **Significant Bitcoin liquidation clusters exist between $65,000 and $72,000, presenting critical inflection points for price action** Significant Bitcoin liquidation clusters exist between **$65,000** and **$72,000,** presenting critical inflection points for price action. A decisive break below the **$65,000** support level poses the most immediate risk, potentially triggering a long liquidation cascade estimated at **$675** million across major exchanges [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-65k-liquidation-trap-675m-flow-event-2602). Conversely, a dense cluster of short positions is identified between **$68,300** and **$69,200** [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022229564915904826), representing a key resistance zone. A successful breach of this short cluster could initiate a squeeze, propelling the price towards **$72,000,** which is presented as the next major target [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2017594316600836446). Liquidation clusters act as critical **market** support and resistance points. These levels represent instances where numerous leveraged positions will be forcibly closed, introducing forced buy or sell orders that can amplify price movements. The ultimate price resolution on February 13, 2026, will also be influenced by broader macroeconomic factors. These include anticipated central bank policy shifts, evolving institutional adoption of Bitcoin via ETFs, and changes in overall **market** liquidity. These factors collectively shape the **market**'s ability to navigate or trigger volatile liquidation events. ## How Do Bitcoin On-Chain Flows and Order Books Indicate Market Sentiment? Binance 24hr Net BTC Inflow | +7,544 BTC (Binance) [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance) | Coinbase Institutional Inflow | 1,036 BTC (~$70.3M) [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022327084199100598) | Binance Whale '3NVeXm' Deposit | 8,200 - 10,900 BTC (~$559M - $730M) over 48-72 hrs [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022147439411736856) | **Centralized exchanges observe a net capital inflow, with varied institutional activity on Coinbase** Centralized exchanges observe a net capital inflow, with varied institutional activity on Coinbase. Recent Bitcoin on-chain analysis indicates capital is generally moving onto centralized exchanges, with aggregate netflows showing a +5,500 BTC inflow over the last 24 hours [[^]](https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/summary), accelerating to +**$121M** in spot inflows over the past six hours [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/spot-inflow-outflow). Coinbase Pro experienced a minor +365 BTC net inflow [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance). More significantly, its institutional arm registered a 1,036 BTC (~**$70.3M**) inflow approximately five hours ago [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022327084199100598), followed by a 988 BTC (~**$68.2M**) outflow to a new wallet one hour later [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022369572620263746). This activity suggests tactical institutional repositioning, while large ETF-related deposits from entities like BlackRock (3,402 BTC) continue to affirm structural demand [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022359887821574325). Binance received substantial whale inflows, potentially signaling bearish pressure. In contrast to Coinbase Pro, Binance saw a more substantial +7,544 BTC net inflow over 24 hours [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance), representing a **1.15%** increase in its total Bitcoin reserves. A major contributor was a whale entity, '3NVeXm', which deposited between 8,200 and 10,900 BTC (~**$559M** - **$730M**) onto the exchange over the last 48-72 hours [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2022147439411736856). Such significant and sustained whale deposits are typically interpreted as a bearish signal, as they increase the liquid supply of Bitcoin available for sale on the **market**'s most active trading venue. This influx of potential selling pressure could significantly impact upward price momentum and raises the risk of a sharp price decline if these assets are liquidated, potentially creating a formidable sell wall. ## What Are US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flow Projections and Trends? 4-Day Cumulative Net Outflow (Feb 9-12, 2026) | -$438.9 million [[^]](https://farside.co.uk/btc) | Single-Day Net Outflow (Feb 12, 2026) | -$410.4 million [[^]](https://farside.co.uk/btc) | Cumulative Net Inflows (as of Feb 12, 2026) | +$54.3 billion [[^]](https://farside.co.uk/btc) | **Recent US spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant net outflows** Recent US spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant net outflows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a cumulative net outflow of -**$438.9** million between February 9 and February 12, 2026 [[^]](https://farside.co.uk/btc). This trend intensified dramatically on February 12, registering a substantial single-day outflow of -**$410.4** million, indicative of accelerating selling pressure. This shift represents a departure from earlier **market** dynamics where persistent Grayscale (GBTC) outflows were largely absorbed by new ETFs such as BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, now signaling a broader **market** de-risking. Intraday flow data for February 13 remains unavailable. For February 13, 2026, real-time intraday fund flow data is not publicly accessible, as official data for ETF share creation and redemption is reported on a T+1 basis after **market** close. Nevertheless, analysis suggests a high **probability** of a fifth consecutive day of net outflows, influenced by strong **market** inertia and recent Bitcoin price volatility, with the asset trading in a range between approximately **$60,000** and **$70,000** [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows). This recent price correction has contributed to an estimated **$1.5**-**$2** billion exit from digital asset products [[^]](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/bitcoin-btc-under-70000-as-etf-outflows-and-us-data-rattle-markets-1578027). A further price decline below key support levels could trigger redemptions potentially exceeding **$300** million, while price stabilization might slow outflows to the **$50**-**$150** million range. Historical patterns suggest outflows may precede price bottom. Despite the current bearish momentum, historical trends indicate that multi-day periods of intense outflows often precede a local price bottom and a subsequent reversal in flows [[^]](https://farside.co.uk/btc). A significantly smaller outflow, or a flat to slightly positive flow day on February 13, would serve as a key indicator of exhausted selling pressure. While the immediate outlook presents challenges, longer-term institutional projections remain optimistic, with some analysts forecasting total net inflows between **$20** billion and **$70** billion for the 2026 calendar year, contingent on Bitcoin's price rallying towards the **$100,000** level [[^]](https://blog.mexc.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-see-largest-outflows-in-two-months-as-709-million-exits-the-**market**). ## Are Stablecoin Pegs Holding Amidst Significant Crypto Capital Outflows? Current Stablecoin Peg Status | Both USDT/USD and USDC/USD trading at $1.00 on Kraken (0% premium/discount) [[^]](https://www.kraken.com/prices/tether) | Total USDT Burned Q1 2026 | Approximately $6.5 billion USDT (January/February) [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/687800) | Combined Stablecoin Market Cap | ~$258 billion (USDT & USDC combined, contracting) [[^]](https://www.kraken.com/prices/usdc) | **Stablecoins USDT and USDC maintain peg despite significant capital outflows** Stablecoins USDT and USDC maintain peg despite significant capital outflows. As of February 13, 2026, both USDT/USD and USDC/USD are trading precisely at their **$1.00** peg on Kraken, exhibiting a **0%** premium or discount, with 24-hour highs and lows consistently recorded at **$1.00** [[^]](https://www.kraken.com/prices/tether). This stability persists despite substantial capital movements, specifically Tether burning approximately **$6.5** billion USDT in Q1 2026, which included a notable **$3.5** billion on February 10 [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/687800). This activity marks the first period of negative **market** capitalization growth for USDT in two years, resulting in a reduction of its circulating supply from approximately **$187** billion to **$184** billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/usdt-**market**-cap-growth-turns-negative-2-years-signal-mid-term-2602-61). Broader stablecoin contraction indicates a controlled, risk-off rotation to fiat. The observed contraction extends beyond USDT, as the combined **market** capitalization of USDT and USDC has fallen to approximately **$258** billion, with USDC's individual supply also decreasing to about **$73** billion [[^]](https://www.kraken.com/prices/usdc). This trend suggests a systemic reduction in overall stablecoin demand, indicative of a controlled, risk-off rotation from crypto assets into traditional fiat currency, rather than an internal 'flight to safety' between different stablecoins [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2021479112783909309). A key finding from these movements is the efficient functioning of arbitrage and redemption mechanisms, even amidst a declining demand for crypto exposure [[^]](https://x.com/i/status/2021479112783909309). ## How Does U.S. Equity Close Affect Bitcoin Price and Flows? ES and BTC Correlation | Significant positive increase during 3:45-4:15 PM EST (Report Date: Feb 13, 2026) | Institutional BTC Trade Spike | Trades >= $500,000 anticipated around 4:00 PM EST | Coinbase Premium Indication | Potential temporary increase indicating institutional buying pressure | **High-frequency analysis reveals increased correlation between /ES and BTC/USD** High-frequency analysis reveals increased correlation between /ES and BTC/USD. During the 3:45 PM to 4:15 PM EST timeframe, there is a significant, yet temporary, increase in positive correlation between S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES) and the BTC/USD spot price. This correlation is attributed to cross-asset algorithmic trading, end-of-day portfolio rebalancing activities, and the spillover of macroeconomic sentiment from the closing auction of the equity session. Institutional BTC trades spike significantly around the 4:00 PM EST equity close. A statistically significant surge in institutional-sized BTC transactions, defined as trades equal to or greater than **$500,000,** is anticipated on Coinbase approximately at 4:00 PM EST. This activity is often preceded by noticeable changes in order book depth and may manifest as a temporary rise in the 'Coinbase Premium', indicating net institutional buying or selling pressure. The specific and predictable nature of this 4:00 PM EST event is not extensively documented, marking it as a valuable area for analytical differentiation. Predicting the 5:00 PM EST price relies on post-4:00 PM activity. The institutional trading volume and subsequent price movements at the 4:00 PM EST equity **market** close are crucial for accurately forecasting the 5:00 PM EST price, which in turn determines outcomes in prediction markets. A robust, volume-supported directional price move occurring after 4:00 PM is likely to show continuation, thereby establishing the dominant trend for the final hour of trading before **market** resolution. ## What Could Change the Odds **Several bearish catalysts are currently influencing Bitcoin's price.** Standard Chartered predicts further declines in the coming months, lowering its year-end 2026 forecast to **$100,000** and warning of a potential drop to **$50,000** due to ETF outflows and a weakening macroeconomic environment [[^]](https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2026/02/13/bitcoin-under-pressure-after-standard-chartered-warning/). US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced substantial outflows, totaling **$686.27** million over two days [[^]](https://www.theblock.co/post/389803/spot-bitcoin-etfs-bleed-410-million). News of the largest US crypto exchange reporting a Q4 loss has added further pressure [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/**market**-quick-take---13-february-2026-13022026). A weakening macroeconomic environment coupled with stronger-than-expected US payroll data has reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts [[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/13/how-long-until-bitcoin-recovers-from-its-50-crash-the-last-3-major-drops-offer-clues/). Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain rebounds, falling roughly **50%** from its October 2025 peak to approximately **$66,000** in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/13/will-bitcoin-keep-falling-after-its-50-decline-or/). Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the psychological **$70,000** level with declining volume, and a sustained break below the **$60,000**-**$58,000** support zone could trigger a more significant pullback [[^]](https://www.bittime.com/en/blog/prediksi-harga-bitcoin-13-februari-2026). The expiration of nearly **$2.9** billion in BTC and ETH options today is also expected to introduce increased volatility [[^]](https://www.binance.com/ar-BH/square/post/02-13-2026-binance-**market**-update-2026-02-13-291159267129538). **Conversely, a few bullish factors offer potential support.** Bitcoin continues to hold its 200-week moving average near **$58,000,** which could lead to a recovery towards resistance levels between **$73,000** and **$75,000** [[^]](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/02/13/what-bitcoin-price-trends-reveal-about-digital-inclusion-and-exclusion/). JPMorgan has also reiterated a long-term Bitcoin target of **$266,000,** maintaining a positive outlook for crypto markets in 2026. Additionally, the US January CPI Report, scheduled for release today, could provide a bullish catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin if it indicates lower-than-expected inflation. As of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin had experienced a **7.56%** increase in value over the preceding seven days. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** February 13, 2026 - **Expiration:** February 20, 2026 - **Closes:** February 13, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Several bearish catalysts are currently influencing Bitcoin's price. - Standard Chartered predicts further declines in the coming months, lowering its year-end 2026 forecast to **$100,000** and warning of a potential drop to **$50,000** due to ETF outflows and a weakening macroeconomic environment [^] . - US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced substantial outflows, totaling **$686.27** million over two days [^] . - News of the largest US crypto exchange reporting a Q4 loss has added further pressure [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [How high will BNB get in April?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-high-will-bnb-get-in-april/) - [How low will BNB get in May?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-low-will-bnb-get-in-may/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 50 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 49 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTC-26FEB1314-T76499.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026) - KXBTC-26FEB1314-T58250: NO (Feb 13, 2026) - KXBTC-26FEB1314-B76375: NO (Feb 13, 2026) - KXBTC-26FEB1314-B76125: NO (Feb 13, 2026) - KXBTC-26FEB1314-B75875: NO (Feb 13, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-13-2026-at-5pm-est If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.