# BTC price range on Aug 18, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

On Aug 18, 2026 at 9pm EDT

Updated: August 19, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly, BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/btc-price-range-on-aug-18-2026-at-9pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for a Bitcoin price range of **$64,500** to 64,599.99 at **61.0%** **model** vs **41.0%** **market**, driven by the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index trading at **$64,576.13** on August 18, 2026.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - The $64,500-$64,599.99 range is favored, aligning with the BRTI snapshot.** - Bitcoin reports of "holding **$64,600**" support the **$64,600**-**$64,699.99** range.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**32.4%**) sees +**3.4%** gap over 29c **market**, 3.4x payout, as BRTI supports Bitcoin at **$64,576.13**.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 29.0% | 32.4% | Model higher by 3.4pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 32.4% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 29.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +3.4pp
- Expected Return: +11.7%
- R-Score: 0.57
- Total Volume: $7,831.27
- 24h Volume: $7,304.27
- Open Interest: $5,751.79

- Expiration: August 19, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" contract resolves true if the Bitcoin (BTC) price falls within the specified range (e.g., $64,400 to $64,499.99) at 9pm EDT today. Conversely, a "No" contract resolves true if the BTC price is outside of that specific range at the same time. The market is scheduled to resolve based on the BTC price "today at 9pm EDT," and the specific source for the BTC price is not detailed on this page.

## Market Discussion

On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin traded within an approximate daily range of $64,036 to $65,025 [[^]](https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/) and largely consolidated between $64,000 and $64,700, with market commentary noting $64,000 as key support and $65,000 as major resistance [[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/)[[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/fGWv1Yhq-Bitcoin-Analysis-15M-Trendline-Support-Consolidation-Break/)[[^]](https://coinstats.app/ai/a/latest-news-for-bitcoin). The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) reflected a price of approximately $64,576.13 on August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI), as market sentiment was characterized as neutral to cautiously bearish amidst range-bound trading [[^]](https://coinstats.app/ai/a/latest-news-for-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation).

## What key outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the White House crypto summit could drive BTC price volatility on August 18?

Primary BTC Volatility Drivers (Aug 18, 2026) | Broader macro concerns, including rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, increased Brent crude oil prices, and pre-event positioning ahead of FOMC minutes and White House crypto meeting [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/)[[^]](https://piptheory.com/research/fomc-minutes-august-2026-preview-dollar)[[^]](https://ethnews.com/white-house-crypto-meeting-bypass-congress/) |
BTC Intraday Price Range (Aug 18, 2026) | Approximately $64,005 to $64,926 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/) |
Key Events Scheduled | July FOMC minutes release and White House crypto meeting on August 19, 2026 [[^]](https://piptheory.com/research/fomc-minutes-august-2026-preview-dollar)[[^]](https://ethnews.com/white-house-crypto-meeting-bypass-congress/)[[^]](https://ratespike.com/articles/fomc-minutes-august-19-hawkish-dissent-september-kalshi)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html)[[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/14/trump-expected-to-attend-white-house-meeting-with-crypto-ceos-sources-say)[[^]](https://crypto.news/coinbase-ripple-to-join-white-house-crypto-meeting/)[[^]](https://valueaddvc.com/pulse/trump-white-house-crypto-meeting-august-19-2026) |

**Specific August 2026 meeting outcomes did not drive August 18 volatility**

Specific August 2026 meeting outcomes did not drive August 18 volatility. The available evidence does not include concrete extracted outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes or the White House crypto summit, precluding a direct link to Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility on August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-dogecoin-doge-and-xrp-price-analysis-for-august-19-liquidity-and)[[^]](https://cryptobriefing.com/strategy-bitcoin-selling-**market**-impact/)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/hives-84-7-million-swedish-tax-provision-eclipsed-revenue-even-as-bitcoin-output-hit-a-record/)[[^]](https://cryptobriefing.com/strategy-mstr-institutional-shareholders-q2-increase/)[[^]](https://beincrypto.com/40-trillion-us-debt-bitcoin-crypto/)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/peter-schiff-bitcoin-65000-resistance/). Instead, BTC price volatility on August 18, 2026, was primarily influenced by broader macroeconomic concerns, including rising U.S. Treasury bond yields and increased Brent crude oil prices due to geopolitical tension [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/). This volatility was also shaped by pre-event positioning in anticipation of the FOMC minutes and a White House crypto meeting, both scheduled for the following day, August 19, 2026 [[^]](https://piptheory.com/research/fomc-minutes-august-2026-preview-dollar)[[^]](https://ethnews.com/white-house-crypto-meeting-bypass-congress/). The intraday range for BTC on August 18, 2026, was approximately **$64,005** to **$64,926** [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/).

Upcoming August 19 events hinted at future regulatory shifts and **market** insights. The July FOMC minutes, scheduled for release on August 19, 2026, were anticipated to provide significant insights into the rationale behind the July 29, 2026, decision to hold interest rates and indications of potential divisions within the FOMC regarding a September rate hike [[^]](https://piptheory.com/research/fomc-minutes-august-2026-preview-dollar)[[^]](https://ratespike.com/articles/fomc-minutes-august-19-hawkish-dissent-september-kalshi)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html). Concurrently, a White House crypto meeting on August 19, 2026, expected to be attended by President Donald Trump and crypto executives, signaled a potential shift by the administration toward regulatory rulemaking via agencies such as the SEC and CFTC [[^]](https://ethnews.com/white-house-crypto-meeting-bypass-congress/)[[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/14/trump-expected-to-attend-white-house-meeting-with-crypto-ceos-sources-say)[[^]](https://crypto.news/coinbase-ripple-to-join-white-house-crypto-meeting/)[[^]](https://valueaddvc.com/pulse/trump-white-house-crypto-meeting-august-19-2026). However, the provided materials do not contain extracted policy outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes, such as details on rate paths, inflation outlook, financial stability, or digital asset mentions. Similarly, concrete extracted outcomes from the White House crypto summit, like specific stablecoin rulemaking or enforcement decisions, are not included in the provided evidence [[^]](https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-dogecoin-doge-and-xrp-price-analysis-for-august-19-liquidity-and)[[^]](https://cryptobriefing.com/strategy-bitcoin-selling-**market**-impact/)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/hives-84-7-million-swedish-tax-provision-eclipsed-revenue-even-as-bitcoin-output-hit-a-record/)[[^]](https://cryptobriefing.com/strategy-mstr-institutional-shareholders-q2-increase/)[[^]](https://beincrypto.com/40-trillion-us-debt-bitcoin-crypto/)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/peter-schiff-bitcoin-65000-resistance/).

## How does Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility in August 2026 compare to historical levels for the same period in 2024 and 2025?

30-day realized volatility (Mid-August 2026) | 22.0% to 27.2% annualized [[^]](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2026-bitcoin-chaincheck/)[[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.RealizedVolatilityAll?a=BTC)[[^]](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/08/17/bitcoin-is-quiet-options-are-not/) |
1-month realized volatility (August 17, 2026) | 22.02% [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.RealizedVolatilityAll?a=BTC) |
7-day realized volatility (Week of August 17, 2026) | 19.5% [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17) |

**Bitcoin's August 2026 volatility significantly decreased compared to prior years**

Bitcoin's August 2026 volatility significantly decreased compared to prior years. As of mid-August 2026, Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility showed substantial compression, with annualized figures ranging from approximately **22.0%** to **27.2%** [[^]](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2026-bitcoin-chaincheck/)[[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/**market**.RealizedVolatilityAll?a=BTC)[[^]](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/08/17/bitcoin-is-quiet-options-are-not/). Specifically, on August 17, 2026, the 1-month realized volatility was recorded at **22.02%** [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/**market**.RealizedVolatilityAll?a=BTC). This level represents a notable reduction when contrasted with historical August averages, which stood at roughly **41%** in 2024 and **40%** in 2025 [[^]](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2026-bitcoin-chaincheck/)[[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/**market**.RealizedVolatilityAll?a=BTC)[[^]](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/08/17/bitcoin-is-quiet-options-are-not/).

Both implied and realized volatility indicated a calmer **market** in August. In mid-August 2026, both Bitcoin's implied and realized volatility were characterized as subdued, suggesting that the **market** anticipated a period of tranquility [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17). This subdued trend continued, with the 7-day realized volatility measuring **19.5%** during the week of August 17, 2026 [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17).

## Which factors are exerting more influence on Bitcoin's August 2026 price: macroeconomic pressures like Treasury yields or crypto-native events like the Coldcard hack?

Bitcoin Price (Aug 18, 2026) | Approximately $64,400 [[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/bitcoin-leverage-trap-spot-volume-2026/) |
Bitcoin Weekly Change (mid-Aug 2026) | Fell 2.59% week-over-week [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation) |
Coldcard Hack Value | Over $100 million or approximately 1,368 BTC [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-prices-rally-in-spite-of-116-million-coldcard-hack/)[[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-ether-decline-as-coldcard-exploit-enters-a-fifth-day)[[^]](https://mycryptoparadise.com/coldcard-hack-floods-bitcoin-s-mempool-as-losses-hit-120m/)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/selective-rotation-drives-wider-sector-dispersion) |

**Bitcoin's August 2026 price saw conflicting influences from macro and crypto events**

Bitcoin's August 2026 price saw conflicting influences from macro and crypto events. Some sources contend that macroeconomic factors, particularly US economic data, exerted greater influence on Bitcoin's price compared to crypto-native events [[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto)[[^]](https://cryptodailyworld.com/the-macro-driven-paradigm-how-global-monetary-policy-and-institutional-integration-replaced-crypto-native-narratives-for-bitcoin/). On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin's price action was primarily driven by the **market**'s reaction to weaker-than-expected July US retail sales [[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/bitcoin-leverage-trap-spot-volume-2026/). This triggered speculation regarding Federal Reserve rate policy and subsequently boosted risk assets, leading Bitcoin to rise to approximately **$64,400** [[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/bitcoin-leverage-trap-spot-volume-2026/). Prediction markets for this specific date generally converged around the **$64,000**–**$66,000** range, which aligned with the actual price movement following the retail sales data announcement [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-price-on-august-18-2026)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/crypto/events/btc-price-on-aug-18-2026-at-7pm-edt-aug-18-2026/)[[^]](https://web3.bitget.com/predictions/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-on-august-18-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-price-on-august-18).

Other analyses suggested crypto-native events exerted greater influence during mid-August. Conversely, other research indicates that Bitcoin's price action in mid-August 2026 was more significantly shaped by crypto-native factors [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation). This occurred despite supportive macroeconomic data, which included inline Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, cooling Producer Price Index (PPI) data, and falling 2-year Treasury yields [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation). During this period, Bitcoin experienced a **2.59%** week-over-week decline, largely attributed to substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shelving a planned crypto rulemaking vote [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation). Bitcoin concluded Friday, August 14, 2026, at **$62,875** and traded near **$63.6**k by the week ending August 17, 2026, remaining within a range-bound state [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation).

The Coldcard hack, a significant crypto-native event, had negligible **market** impact. A notable crypto-native incident, the Coldcard hack, involved the theft of over **$100** million worth of Bitcoin, approximately 1,368 BTC, yet it had a negligible impact on Bitcoin's **market** price [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-prices-rally-in-spite-of-116-million-coldcard-hack/)[[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-ether-decline-as-coldcard-exploit-enters-a-fifth-day)[[^]](https://mycryptoparadise.com/coldcard-hack-floods-bitcoin-s-mempool-as-losses-hit-120m/)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/selective-rotation-drives-wider-sector-dispersion). The **market** largely disregarded the incident because there was no indication of forced selling or a significant liquidity drain resulting from the exploit [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-prices-rally-in-spite-of-116-million-coldcard-hack/)[[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/03/bitcoin-ether-decline-as-coldcard-exploit-enters-a-fifth-day)[[^]](https://mycryptoparadise.com/coldcard-hack-floods-bitcoin-s-mempool-as-losses-hit-120m/). Consequently, this particular exploit did not leave a discernible mark on the price of Bitcoin or the broader Non-Programmable asset sector [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/selective-rotation-drives-wider-sector-dispersion).

## What do high-frequency derivatives metrics, such as funding rates on Binance and Bybit, indicate about trader sentiment leading up to the evening of August 18, 2026?

Bitcoin Funding Rates | Remained positive leading into August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-34-2026/) |
Bitcoin Price Rebound | $64,000–$64,400 on August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/bitcoin-pulls-crypto-off-the-lows-as-breakout-tension-builds-1617372)[[^]](https://coingape.com/markets/crypto-market-update-august-18-bitcoin-rebounds-ahead-of-trumps-crypto-meeting-as-aave-leads-altcoins/)[[^]](https://investinglive.com/commodities/crypto-market-today-bitcoin-reclaims-key-price-level-64-000-but-the-recovery-still-needs-proof/)[[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto) |
Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) | Around 38–41 ('Fear' zone) on August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/bitcoin-pulls-crypto-off-the-lows-as-breakout-tension-builds-1617372)[[^]](https://coingape.com/markets/crypto-market-update-august-18-bitcoin-rebounds-ahead-of-trumps-crypto-meeting-as-aave-leads-altcoins/)[[^]](https://investinglive.com/commodities/crypto-market-today-bitcoin-reclaims-key-price-level-64-000-but-the-recovery-still-needs-proof/)[[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto) |

**Funding rates indicated a balanced yet cautious market leading to August 18**

Funding rates indicated a balanced yet cautious **market** leading to August 18. High-frequency derivatives metrics, including funding rates on major exchanges such as Binance and Bybit, were notably low and stable leading up to August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://fundingalertss.com/)[[^]](https://perpsradar.com/)[[^]](https://www.tradingdigits.io/crypto-funding-rates). This suggested that traders were not exhibiting extreme long or short positioning while awaiting confirmation of further price recovery. Despite this general caution, Bitcoin funding rates remained positive in the week preceding August 18, 2026, pointing to a persistent long-biased stance among traders [[^]](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-**market**-pulse-week-34-2026/).

Broader **market** sentiment reflected caution and skepticism despite Bitcoin's rebound. The derivatives **market** during mid-August 2026 was characterized by a cautious environment, exhibiting moderate leverage expansion alongside an increasing shift towards sell-side perpetual taker flows, which signaled aggressive distribution [[^]](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-**market**-pulse-week-34-2026/). On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin's sentiment was cautiously optimistic as its price rebounded to the **$64,000**–**$64,400** range, following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data [[^]](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/bitcoin-pulls-crypto-off-the-lows-as-breakout-tension-builds-1617372)[[^]](https://coingape.com/markets/crypto-**market**-update-august-18-bitcoin-rebounds-ahead-of-trumps-crypto-meeting-as-aave-leads-altcoins/)[[^]](https://investinglive.com/commodities/crypto-**market**-today-bitcoin-reclaims-key-price-level-64-000-but-the-recovery-still-needs-proof/)[[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto). However, the overall **market** remained in the 'Fear' zone, with the Fear & Greed Index positioned around 38–41, indicating traders' skepticism regarding a sustained trend change [[^]](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/bitcoin-pulls-crypto-off-the-lows-as-breakout-tension-builds-1617372)[[^]](https://coingape.com/markets/crypto-**market**-update-august-18-bitcoin-rebounds-ahead-of-trumps-crypto-meeting-as-aave-leads-altcoins/)[[^]](https://investinglive.com/commodities/crypto-**market**-today-bitcoin-reclaims-key-price-level-64-000-but-the-recovery-still-needs-proof/)[[^]](https://blog.e8markets.com/article/bitcoin-jumps-on-weak-us-retail-sales-what-macro-data-means-for-crypto).

## What are the potential market-moving developments related to the Coinkite Coldcard vulnerability that could occur before August 18, 2026?

Exploited BTC Value | ~$115M–$116M (1,700–1,816 BTC) [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/17/how-a-bug-in-coldcard-s-code-went-unnoticed-for-years-leading-to-usd100-million-in-hacked-funds)[[^]](https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/coldcard-exploit-abates-as-total-losses-climb-to-at-least-1700-btc)[[^]](https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/the-largest-hardware-wallet-exploit-of-2026-inside-the-usd-116-million-coldcard-hack)[[^]](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bitcoin-coinkite-security-hack-9.7295582)[[^]](https://www.spotedcrypto.com/coldcard-hardware-wallet-hack-115-million/)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/coldcard-wallet-hack-114-million-bitcoin-stolen/) |
Exploit Start Date | July 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/17/how-a-bug-in-coldcard-s-code-went-unnoticed-for-years-leading-to-usd100-million-in-hacked-funds)[[^]](https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/coldcard-exploit-abates-as-total-losses-climb-to-at-least-1700-btc)[[^]](https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/the-largest-hardware-wallet-exploit-of-2026-inside-the-usd-116-million-coldcard-hack)[[^]](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bitcoin-coinkite-security-hack-9.7295582)[[^]](https://www.spotedcrypto.com/coldcard-hardware-wallet-hack-115-million/)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/coldcard-wallet-hack-114-million-bitcoin-stolen/) |
BTC Price (August 18, 2026) | $64,600–$64,641 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/) |

**A Coldcard firmware bug led to over $100M in stolen Bitcoin**

A Coldcard firmware bug led to over **$100M** in stolen Bitcoin. A vulnerability stemming from a March 2021 firmware bug in Coinkite Coldcard, which weakened seed entropy, resulted in the theft of approximately 1,700–1,816 BTC, valued between **$115** million and **$116** million [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/17/how-a-bug-in-coldcard-s-code-went-unnoticed-for-years-leading-to-usd100-million-in-hacked-funds)[[^]](https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/coldcard-exploit-abates-as-total-losses-climb-to-at-least-1700-btc)[[^]](https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/the-largest-hardware-wallet-exploit-of-2026-inside-the-usd-116-million-coldcard-hack)[[^]](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bitcoin-coinkite-security-hack-9.7295582)[[^]](https://www.spotedcrypto.com/coldcard-hardware-wallet-hack-115-million/)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/coldcard-wallet-hack-114-million-bitcoin-stolen/). The exploit began on July 30, 2026, with around 1,368 BTC being drained from over 4,500 addresses [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/selective-rotation-drives-wider-sector-dispersion). Despite the significant value compromised, the **market** impact of this vulnerability was relatively modest; Bitcoin prices remained stable, and the event was characterized by a spike in BTC inflows to exchanges as users consolidated funds for custody, rather than a large-scale sell-off or Bitcoin repricing event [[^]](https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/coldcard-exploit-abates-as-total-losses-climb-to-at-least-1700-btc)[[^]](https://fazen.markets/en/coldcard-exploit-bitcoin-private-key-risk-price-holds-65000)[[^]](https://memeburn.com/coldcard-wallet-hack-114-million-bitcoin-stolen/)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/selective-rotation-drives-wider-sector-dispersion).

Macroeconomic factors primarily drove Bitcoin's stable price post-exploit. As of August 18, 2026, Bitcoin was trading near **$64,600**–**$64,641,** with its price movements predominantly influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as U.S.-Iran tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations, rather than any lingering effects from the Coldcard vulnerability [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/). The prevailing **market** setup on August 17, 2026, indicated a range-bound BTC with contracting spot volumes and cautious derivatives, suggesting limited conviction as the resolution window approached [[^]](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-**market**-pulse-week-34-2026/). While implied volatility and option configurations were priced for relative calm, the overall **market** direction and risk premia were contingent on upcoming macroeconomic items, which could move BTC independently of the Coldcard vulnerability's direct impact [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/digital-assets-decline-despite-cooling-inflation).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Geopolitical uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, rising bond yields, and increasing oil prices were identified as key bearish catalysts for Bitcoin around August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/).** Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and a White House crypto summit scheduled for Wednesday, August 19, represented potential bullish drivers [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-pauses-at-usd64-000-as-rising-yields-oil-drag-equities-lower)[[^]](https://crypto.news/bitcoin-holds-64600-as-trump-rules-out-iran-talks/).

**The market sentiment for the week of August 17, 2026, was characterized by an 'organizing tension' where risk assets were priced for a 'near-perfect landing,' while rates markets discounted only a token further hike path [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17).** Implied volatility was low, pricing off calm, and the **market** remained contingent on macro events such as FOMC minutes and labor data [[^]](https://news.laevitas.ch/archive/monday-brief-2026-08-17).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** August 19, 2026
- **Expiration:** August 26, 2026
- **Closes:** August 19, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Geopolitical uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, rising bond yields, and increasing oil prices were identified as key bearish catalysts for Bitcoin around August 18, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and a White House crypto summit scheduled for Wednesday, August 19, represented potential bullish drivers [^] [^] .
- The **market** sentiment for the week of August 17, 2026, was characterized by an 'organizing tension' where risk assets were priced for a 'near-perfect landing,' while rates markets discounted only a token further hike path [^] .
- Implied volatility was low, pricing off calm, and the **market** remained contingent on macro events such as FOMC minutes and labor data [^] .

## Related Research Reports

- [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
- [How high will BNB get in April?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-high-will-bnb-get-in-april/)
- [How low will BNB get in May?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-low-will-bnb-get-in-may/)
- [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTC-26AUG1820-T72299.99: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-T53700: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72250: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72150: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72050: NO (Aug 19, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 5 of 5 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

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