# Fed Decision in October?

Updated: September 17, 2026

Category: Economy

Tags: Fed, fomc, Trump, Fed Rates, Kevin Warsh, Global Rates, Jerome Powell, Economic Policy, Macro Indicators, Recurring

HTML: /markets/economics/fed/fed-decision-in-october/

## Short Answer

**No change to interest rates at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting is a toss-up for the market, which prices it at 53.0% following the Fed's September 16 rate hike to 3.75-4.00% due to inflation and energy shocks.** The **model** assigns a higher **64.4%** **probability** to no rate change.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - "No change" holds most probability, following the recent 3.75%–4.00% rate hike.** - A "25 bps increase" remains possible due to elevated inflation and global energy shocks.
- Strong Employment and CPI reports may increase "25 bps increase" **probability**.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Anticipation for September's employment and CPI reports, alongside Fed Chair Warsh and President Trump's influence, drives the October FOMC rate **market**.

The market's decline is driven by contradictory information about whether a Federal Open Market Committee meeting will occur in October 2026. The initial 70.5% probability appears to have been based on Federal Reserve calendars scheduling a meeting for October 27-28, 2026. The subsequent drop to 52.5% coincides with conflicting data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the CME FedWatch tool, both of which indicate no meeting is planned for that month. The Atlanta Fed's published blackout period explicitly states it is for a non-meeting month. This fundamental uncertainty about the event itself directly undermines the market's premise.

All price movement has occurred on zero traded volume. The lack of trading activity indicates the price changes do not reflect trader sentiment or capital flows. Instead, the downward trend is likely an automated or manual adjustment by the market maker in response to the conflicting scheduling data. The price reflects an informational correction, not active price discovery.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 53.0% | 64.4% | The Fed recently raised rates in September and may pause to assess economic impacts. |
| 25 bps increase | 47.0% | 34.2% | Elevated inflation and global energy shocks could prompt a further rate hike. |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.8% | 0.7% | This outcome is highly unlikely as the Fed recently raised rates due to elevated inflation. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 53.0% | 64.4% |
| 25 bps increase | 47.0% | 34.2% |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.6% | 0.5% |

- Expiration: October 28, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 September 16, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 37.5% to 45.5%

**Outcome:** 25 bps increase

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "25 bps increase" outcome for the "Fed Decision in October?" market on September 16, 2026, was the Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)[[4]](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/fed-hikes-rates-for-first-time-under-warsh-sees-more-tightening-ahead). On this date, the FOMC, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, announced a 25 basis point rate hike and released updated policy projections [[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)[[4]](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/fed-hikes-rates-for-first-time-under-warsh-sees-more-tightening-ahead). These projections indicated that 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one additional 25 basis point rate hike by the end of 2026, directly increasing the perceived likelihood of such a move at the next FOMC meeting in October [[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)[[4]](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/fed-hikes-rates-for-first-time-under-warsh-sees-more-tightening-ahead). Social media activity was irrelevant, as no specific posts or viral narratives linked to the movement were identified.

Sources:

1. [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf)
2. [Fed hikes rates, sees more tightening in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)
3. [Fed rate decision September 2026: Fed hikes rates](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
4. [Fed hikes rates for first time under Warsh, sees more tightening ahead - Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/fed-hikes-rates-for-first-time-under-warsh-sees-more-tightening-ahead)

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to one of several outcomes based on the change in the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate after the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, 2026. The possible outcomes are "50+ bps decrease," "25 bps decrease," "No change," "25 bps increase," or "50+ bps increase." If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to "No change."

The resolution source is the FOMC's statement following the October 2026 meeting, with official data from the Federal Reserve website. Any change not expressed in the displayed options will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning, for example, a 12.5 bps change will be considered 25 bps.

## Market Discussion

The market indicates a close debate on the Federal Reserve's October 2026 decision, with probabilities slightly favoring "No change" (53%) over a "25 bps increase" (47%) in the federal funds rate. Arguments for a hike stem from the Fed's recent hawkish September action, a dot plot showing most officials expect another 2026 increase, and persistent inflation concerns. Conversely, the "No change" stance likely considers the recent tightening and the potential for a pause before the December meeting, with incoming September economic data being a key swing factor.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | $1,199,920 | $0 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $866,381 | $0 |
| 25 bps increase | 46% | 47% | 47% | $1,405,140 | $0 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | $747,796 | $0 |
| No change | 52% | 53% | 53% | $1,728,036 | $0 |

## How might public statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Trump between September and October 2026 influence market sentiment?

Warsh's Swearing-in Date | May 22, 2026 [[1]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman) |
October 2026 FOMC 'No Change' Probability | ~72% (as of Sept 17, 2026) [[2]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[5]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28) |
October 2026 FOMC 25 bps Hike Probability | 24-25% (as of Sept 17, 2026) [[2]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[5]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28) |

**Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Trump will significantly influence market sentiment**

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Trump will significantly influence **market** sentiment. This expected impact, spanning September and October 2026, arises from the **market**'s high sensitivity to the dynamic between the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns and the President's public demands for interest rate cuts [[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/682857)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/691039)[[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/690867). This tension often manifests as volatility in equities, bond yields, and the dollar [[9]](https://www.nytimes.com/)[[10]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/)[[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/682857)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/691039)[[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/690867). Chair Warsh, who was sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026 [[1]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman), has previously influenced **market** sentiment through hawkish communications, causing rapid shifts in rate hike probabilities and increased Treasury yields [[2]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/).

**Market** participants anticipate faster interest rate cuts during Chair Warsh's tenure. As of September 2026, this expectation persists despite his previous hawkish communications [[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/691039). Current prediction markets, as of September 17, 2026, for the October 2026 Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meeting indicate a strong consensus of approximately **72%** for 'No change' in interest rates [[2]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[5]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28). A 24-**25%** **probability** is assigned to a 25-basis-point increase [[2]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[5]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28). Any public statements from Chair Warsh or President Trump between September and October 2026 addressing inflation, rate cuts, or Fed independence could cause shifts in these probabilities and further impact **market** sentiment [[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/682857)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/691039)[[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/690867).

Sources:

1. [Warsh Sworn in as New Fed Chairman - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman)
2. [Pricing the Hawkish Pivot: Analyzing the October 2026 Fed Rate Decision Market](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)
3. [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)
4. [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)
5. [Fed decision in October: odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Network](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28)
6. [US: Market Reflections](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/682857)
7. [US: Market Reflections](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/691039)
8. [US: Market Reflections](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/690867)
9. [Warsh and Fed Officials Raise Interest Rates to Fight Inflation](https://www.nytimes.com/)
10. [U.S. Fed hikes rates, defying Trump's demands for a cut](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/)

## Is there an official FOMC meeting scheduled for October 2026, and what does the agenda for a non-SEP meeting entail?

FOMC Meeting Dates | October 27–28, 2026 [[1]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[2]](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)[[3]](https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision) |
Blackout Period | October 17–29, 2026 [[4]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods) |
SEP Status | Not an SEP meeting [[1]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[2]](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)[[3]](https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision) |

**The FOMC is scheduled for a non-SEP meeting in October 2026**

The FOMC is scheduled for a non-SEP meeting in October 2026.
The Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) has a meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026 [[1]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[2]](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)[[3]](https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision). This particular meeting is not designated for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), with the 2026 SEP meetings instead slated for March, June, September, and December [[1]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[2]](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)[[3]](https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision). Associated with this October session, a blackout period for the FOMC is indicated from October 17–29, 2026 [[4]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods).

Non-SEP FOMC meetings follow a standard two-day policy agenda.
A non-SEP FOMC meeting functions as a regular, two-day policy session focusing on reviewing economic and financial conditions to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance [[2]](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)[[5]](https://www.ig.com/ae/financial-events/fomc). While these meetings do not include the quarterly economic forecasts found in SEP meetings, they still adhere to a standardized agenda, culminating in a public statement at its conclusion [[6]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Fed21-Pesenti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking.pdf)[[7]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Tambalotti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking-Fed21-2016.pdf)[[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625650). The Federal Reserve Chair holds a press conference after every scheduled FOMC meeting, including those without an SEP [[6]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Fed21-Pesenti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking.pdf)[[9]](https://www.atlantafed.org/who-we-are/2021/03/24/getting-out-the-vote-behind-the-scenes-of-an-fomc-meeting)[[7]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Tambalotti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking-Fed21-2016.pdf).

Sources:

1. [October 2026 Fed Meeting: FOMC Decision October 27–28](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)
2. [FOMC: Meaning, Meeting Schedule, Members, Rate Decisions, and...](https://www.atfx.com/en/analysis/financial-events/fomc-meeting)
3. [When is the next Fed interest rate decision? - Equals Money](https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision)
4. [Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods)
5. [When is the Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC)? - IG](https://www.ig.com/ae/financial-events/fomc)
6. [Monetary Policy Decision Making](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Fed21-Pesenti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking.pdf)
7. [Monetary Policy Decision Making](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/outreach-and-education/Tambalotti-MonetaryPolicyDecisionMaking-Fed21-2016.pdf)
8. [US: Fed Chair Press Conference](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625650)
9. [Getting Out the Vote: Behind the Scenes of an FOMC Meeting - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/who-we-are/2021/03/24/getting-out-the-vote-behind-the-scenes-of-an-fomc-meeting)

## How do hawkish arguments for another rate hike compare to dovish arguments for a pause, citing recent inflation and global energy trends?

Probability of October 2026 pause | Approximately 70% [[1]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct)[[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[4]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28) |
US CPI increase (Aug 2026) | 3.4% year-over-year [[5]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm)[[6]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) |
Energy cost increase (Aug 2025-Aug 2026) | 16.3% [[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2026/How-Energy-Market-Swings-Are-Reshaping-Monetary-Policy.html)[[8]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[9]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)[[5]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm) |

**Prediction markets currently project varied outcomes for a hypothetical October rate decision**

Prediction markets currently project varied outcomes for a hypothetical October rate decision. These markets assign approximately a **70%** **probability** to the Federal Reserve pausing rate changes and a 25–**28%** **probability** to a 25 basis point rate hike for an October 27–28, 2026, FOMC meeting [[1]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct)[[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[4]](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28). This follows a 25 basis point rate increase implemented at the Federal Reserve's September 15–16, 2026, FOMC meeting [[10]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/futuur/fed-interest-rate-decision-september-2026). However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve's operating schedule does not list an FOMC meeting in October 2026, as the calendar typically excludes meetings in that month [[11]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-10-27&rid=101)[[12]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=22)[[13]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)[[14]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-17&rid=101).

Hawkish perspectives advocate for continued rate hikes due to persistent inflation and robust labor. Arguments for further tightening are driven by persistent underlying inflationary pressures, concerns that inflation is not yet fully under control despite some cooling, and strong labor **market** indicators [[15]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)[[16]](https://polymarketsignal.com/fed-decisions-jul-oct/)[[17]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes). As of September 2026, U.S. inflation remains elevated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing **3.4%** year-over-year in August 2026 [[5]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm)[[6]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting). Global energy price pressures, including a **16.3%** increase in energy costs for the 12 months ending August 2026, are also cited as key factors influencing expectations for continued caution or potential tightening [[17]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2026/How-Energy-Market-Swings-Are-Reshaping-Monetary-Policy.html)[[8]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[9]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)[[5]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm). These arguments underscore the risk of entrenched, elevated inflation and the necessity of restrictive policy to achieve the **2%** target [[8]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right).

Dovish arguments favor a pause, highlighting moderation in inflation and economic risks. In contrast, dovish viewpoints emphasize the need for patience and data dependence, alongside the risk that further rate increases could negatively impact economic growth [[16]](https://polymarketsignal.com/fed-decisions-jul-oct/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes). While inflation remains elevated, it is showing signs of moderation [[16]](https://polymarketsignal.com/fed-decisions-jul-oct/)[[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes). Dovish perspectives also monitor deteriorating labor **market** indicators, such as rising unemployment expectations, and consider patience to avoid excessive tightening that could harm the economy [[8]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[18]](https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/regional-economy/2026/02/02/bostic-discusses-recent-fomc-decision-to-hold-rate-steady)[[19]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908?Fds-Load-Behavior=force-external).

Sources:

1. [Fed decision in October? Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct)
2. [Fed Decision in October? — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537)
3. [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=kooes)
4. [Fed decision in October: odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Network](https://thebestpredictionmarkets.com/compare/fed-decision-in-october-2026-10-28)
5. [Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Results](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm)
6. [Inflation Nowcasting](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting)
7. [How Energy Market Swings Are Reshaping Monetary Policy - OpenMarkets](https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2026/How-Energy-Market-Swings-Are-Reshaping-Monetary-Policy.html)
8. [It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Right](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)
9. [Firms' Views on the Current Oil Price Shock: Stable for Now, Risky for Tomorrow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)
10. [Fed interest rate decision — September 2026 - Result: 25 bps increase | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/futuur/fed-interest-rate-decision-september-2026)
11. [FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-10-27&rid=101)
12. [Release Calendar | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=22)
13. [Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) | FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)
14. [FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-17&rid=101)
15. [Pricing the Hawkish Pivot: Analyzing the October 2026 Fed Rate Decision Market](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pricing-hawkish-pivot-analyzing-october-2026-fed-rate-decision-market-2609/)
16. [Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)](https://polymarketsignal.com/fed-decisions-jul-oct/)
17. [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)
18. [Atlanta Fed President Bostic Discusses Recent FOMC Decision to Hold Rate Steady - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/regional-economy/2026/02/02/bostic-discusses-recent-fomc-decision-to-hold-rate-steady)
19. [Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908?Fds-Load-Behavior=force-external)

## How has Chairman Kevin Warsh's voting record on monetary policy compared to that of other current FOMC members throughout 2026?

Chairman's Sworn Date | May 22, 2026 [[1]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman) |
Federal Funds Rate Target | 3.50%–3.75% [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/early-dissents-versus-fed-chief-warsh-are-the-most-since-1970/)[[3]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-holds-rates-steady-for-second-meeting-dissent-signals-possible-hawkish-shift/)[[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675) |
July 2026 FOMC Vote | 9-3 to maintain rate [[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675) |

**Chairman Kevin Warsh has consistently voted with the majority on monetary policy**

Chairman Kevin Warsh has consistently voted with the majority on monetary policy. Since his swearing-in on May 22, 2026 [[1]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman), Chairman Warsh has aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at **3.50%**–**3.75%** throughout 2026 [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/early-dissents-versus-fed-chief-warsh-are-the-most-since-1970/)[[3]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-holds-rates-steady-for-second-meeting-dissent-signals-possible-hawkish-shift/)[[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675). This position contrasts with several other FOMC members who have advocated for 25-basis-point rate increases and have dissented from the majority vote [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/early-dissents-versus-fed-chief-warsh-are-the-most-since-1970/)[[3]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-holds-rates-steady-for-second-meeting-dissent-signals-possible-hawkish-shift/)[[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675).

Internal dissent within the FOMC has become increasingly notable. Under Chair Warsh's leadership, the June 2026 meeting saw a unanimous 12-0 vote to keep the target rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent [[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675). However, by the July 2026 meeting, the vote to maintain the same range was 9-3, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan dissenting in favor of a rate hike [[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675). This indicates a trend of growing opposition, with as many as three or four members opposing the majority in recent meetings [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/early-dissents-versus-fed-chief-warsh-are-the-most-since-1970/)[[3]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-holds-rates-steady-for-second-meeting-dissent-signals-possible-hawkish-shift/).

Sources:

1. [Warsh Sworn in as New Fed Chairman - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/05/22/warsh-sworn-in-as-new-fed-chairman)
2. [Early dissents versus Fed chief Warsh are the most since 1970](https://cryptobriefing.com/early-dissents-versus-fed-chief-warsh-are-the-most-since-1970/)
3. [Fed holds rates steady for second meeting; dissent signals possible hawkish shift](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-holds-rates-steady-for-second-meeting-dissent-signals-possible-hawkish-shift/)
4. [US: Fed Chair Press Conference - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/625675)

## What key economic data releases between the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings could trigger a policy shift?

September 2026 Employment Report Release | October 2, 2026 [[1]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm) |
September 2026 CPI Report Release | October 14, 2026 [[1]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm) |
Next FOMC Meeting Decision Date | October 28, 2026 [[2]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[3]](https://www.lopjlb.com/fomc) |

**Critical economic reports between FOMC meetings could influence policy decisions**

Critical economic reports between FOMC meetings could influence policy decisions. Between the September and October 2026 Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meetings, several significant economic data releases are anticipated to shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. The September 2026 Employment Situation report is scheduled for October 2, followed by the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14 [[1]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm). These reports, along with broader employment figures and revisions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are closely monitored by **market** participants and analysts for their potential to prompt shifts in Fed policy expectations [[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)[[5]](https://predictionhero.com/event/fed-decision-in-october). The subsequent FOMC meeting is set for October 27–28, 2026, with the policy decision expected on October 28 [[2]](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)[[3]](https://www.lopjlb.com/fomc).

Key reports and current **market** sentiment suggest a stable policy outlook. Additional economic data releases during this period include the August 2026 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report on October 6 and the September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) on October 15 [[1]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm)[[6]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/). As of September 17, 2026, prediction markets generally indicate no change in the Fed's policy decision for October 2026 [[7]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxfeddecision-26sep)[[8]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxfeddecision-26oct)[[9]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/rothera/ecusfed-26oct). However, sentiment regarding future policy adjustments is considered fluid following the September meeting.

Sources:

1. [Schedule of Selected Releases 2026](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm)
2. [October 2026 Fed Meeting: FOMC Decision October 27–28](https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/)
3. [Next FOMC Meeting: Date, Rate Odds & Policy Desk · LOPJLB](https://www.lopjlb.com/fomc)
4. [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537?r=polymira)
5. [Fed Decision in October? Odds & Prediction Markets | PredictionHero](https://predictionhero.com/event/fed-decision-in-october)
6. [Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/)
7. [Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Compare Odds on 7 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxfeddecision-26sep)
8. [Fed decision in Oct 2026? - Compare Odds on 5 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxfeddecision-26oct)
9. [Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026) — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/rothera/ecusfed-26oct)

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on October 27-28, 2026, with its interest rate decision announced on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[2]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[[3]](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)[[4]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/).** This October 2026 FOMC meeting is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated economic projections or dot plot will be released [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[3]](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)[[4]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/). The FOMC blackout period runs from October 17–29, confirming the meeting concludes within this timeframe, with an FOMC press release scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 [[5]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods)[[6]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&vs=2026-01-01&y=2026)[[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?od=asc&pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&view=year&vs=2026-01-01).

**Kevin Warsh became Federal Reserve Chair in September 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell [[8]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[9]](https://whdh.com/news/warsh-likely-to-side-with-financial-markets-over-trump-as-fed-rate-hike-expected/)[[10]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/14/nation/inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-trump/).** As of mid-September 2026, financial markets are monitoring tensions between Fed Chair Warsh and President Donald Trump. The Fed has begun raising interest rates to combat elevated inflation despite political pressure from the White House to keep rates low [[8]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[9]](https://whdh.com/news/warsh-likely-to-side-with-financial-markets-over-trump-as-fed-rate-hike-expected/)[[11]](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/traders-are-betting-trump-may-soon-turn-on-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-as-interest-rate-hikes-loom-b0dfff2a)[[12]](https://www.ms.now/news/fed-chair-warsh-interest-rate-decision-trump-inflation).

Sources:

1. [Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)
2. [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
3. [FOMC Meeting Schedule October 2026 - Dates & Time](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)
4. [FOMC Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendar](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/)
5. [Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods)
6. [Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&vs=2026-01-01&y=2026)
7. [Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?od=asc&pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&view=year&vs=2026-01-01)
8. [Warsh's words may matter more than the anticipated Fed rate hike | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)
9. [Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News](https://whdh.com/news/warsh-likely-to-side-with-financial-markets-over-trump-as-fed-rate-hike-expected/)
10. [It’s put up or shut up time on inflation for Fed chair Kevin Warsh](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/14/nation/inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-trump/)
11. [Traders are betting Trump may soon turn on Fed chair Kevin Warsh as interest-rate hikes loom - MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/traders-are-betting-trump-may-soon-turn-on-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-as-interest-rate-hikes-loom-b0dfff2a)
12. [Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his biggest test yet](https://www.ms.now/news/fed-chair-warsh-interest-rate-decision-trump-inflation)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** October 28, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on October 27-28, 2026, with its interest rate decision announced on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[2]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[[3]](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)[[4]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/).
- This October 2026 FOMC meeting is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated economic projections or dot plot will be released [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[3]](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)[[4]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/).
- The FOMC blackout period runs from October 17–29, confirming the meeting concludes within this timeframe, with an FOMC press release scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 [[5]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods)[[6]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&vs=2026-01-01&y=2026)[[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?od=asc&pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&view=year&vs=2026-01-01).
- Kevin Warsh became Federal Reserve Chair in September 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell [[8]](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)[[9]](https://whdh.com/news/warsh-likely-to-side-with-financial-markets-over-trump-as-fed-rate-hike-expected/)[[10]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/14/nation/inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-trump/).

Sources:

1. [Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)
2. [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
3. [FOMC Meeting Schedule October 2026 - Dates & Time](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/october-2026/)
4. [FOMC Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendar](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/)
5. [Blackout Periods - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/press-room/blackout-periods)
6. [Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&vs=2026-01-01&y=2026)
7. [Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar?od=asc&pageID=7&rid=101&ve=2026-12-31&view=year&vs=2026-01-01)
8. [Warsh's words may matter more than the anticipated Fed rate hike | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/warshs-words-may-matter-more-than-anticipated-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-16/)
9. [Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News](https://whdh.com/news/warsh-likely-to-side-with-financial-markets-over-trump-as-fed-rate-hike-expected/)
10. [It’s put up or shut up time on inflation for Fed chair Kevin Warsh](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/14/nation/inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-trump/)

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## Historical Resolutions

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