# Number of rate cuts in 2026?

In 2026

Updated: June 11, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Fed

HTML: /markets/economics/fed/number-of-rate-cuts-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect exactly 0 cuts in 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Overwhelming consensus points to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** - Persistent inflation and a resilient labor **market** underpin the Fed's stance.
- Geopolitical tensions and energy **market** risks reinforce the no-cut policy.
- Sustained disinflation or significant labor **market** softening could prompt a pivot.
- Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan anticipate no Federal Reserve rate cuts.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 74c prices higher than the **70.5%** **model** estimate despite overwhelming consensus for zero cuts.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Exactly 0 cuts | 74.3% | 70.5% | Persistent inflationary pressures may force the Fed to maintain current rates throughout 2026. |
| Exactly 1 cut | 21.0% | 14.5% | The Fed may implement a single cautious cut if inflation slowly moderates while growth remains steady. |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 8.5% | 6.8% | Gradual disinflation and a mild economic slowdown could lead the Fed to enact two rate cuts. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Exactly 0 cuts | 74.3% | 70.5% |
| Exactly 1 cut | 21.0% | 14.5% |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0.1% | 0.1% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a clear upward trend, moving from a starting price of 65.6% to its current level of 74.3%. The most significant price movement was a sharp increase to 74.3% around June 11. This spike directly correlates with recent economic reports from that time, where a consensus reportedly formed among economists that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady for the remainder of the year. Prior to this jump, the market showed some volatility, dipping to 61.9% around June 4 on significant volume, suggesting a period of uncertainty before the new information solidified market sentiment.

The trading volume provides insight into market conviction. While total volume is substantial at over 119,000 contracts, a notable surge in activity occurred around June 4, coinciding with the temporary price dip. This indicates a period of active debate among traders. The subsequent price rally, driven by the updated economic forecasts, occurred on lower but still significant volume, suggesting the market was quick to absorb the new consensus view. The price of 74.3% is now approaching the market's all-time high of 79.6%, which may act as a potential resistance level. The earlier low of 61.9% appears to have been a temporary support level before the recent news broke.

Overall, the chart's price action suggests that market sentiment has strongly consolidated around the probability of very few, or no, Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The recent sharp upward movement, backed by fundamental economic news, indicates a high degree of confidence among participants that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy for the rest of the year. The market is effectively pricing in the expert forecasts that cite persistent inflation and geopolitical factors as reasons for the central bank to hold rates steady.

## Contract Snapshot

For the "Exactly 0 cuts" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the Federal Reserve implements zero interest rate cuts between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on September 29, 2025, and closes on December 31, 2026, with payouts projected for January 1, 2027. Outcomes are verified by the Federal Reserve, where one cut equals 25 basis points, and insider trading by those with material, non-public information or source agency employees is prohibited.

## Market Discussion

The market heavily favors "Exactly 0 cuts" in 2026, with current odds implying a 74.3% chance. However, there's an active counter-viewpoint, exemplified by one trader consistently betting against zero cuts and identifying specific FOMC meeting dates for potential easing. This indicates an expectation among some participants that at least one rate cut is likely, despite the prevailing market consensus.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Exactly 0 cuts | 74.7% | 76.9% | 74.2% | $1,211,946.98 | $471,341.45 |
| Exactly 1 cut | 17.1% | 21.9% | 21.6% | $411,834.17 | $167,314.62 |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | $191,254.56 | $189,290.56 |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | $148,752.33 | $148,752.33 |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $37,625 | $37,620 |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $26,724.33 | $26,724.33 |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | $212,581.33 | $197,061.51 |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $105,145 | $105,133 |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,002 | $1,002 |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $927.4 | $927.4 |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,002 | $1,002 |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $2,002 | $2,002 |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 3.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | $401,693.32 | $218,783.55 |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $2,927.4 | $2,927.4 |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 1.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | $295,972.48 | $178,236.74 |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | $231,386.74 | $187,592.89 |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0.4% | 1% | 0.6% | $176,332.66 | $125,834.22 |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | $173,931.3 | $159,886.32 |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | $176,953.33 | $166,116 |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | $169,252.33 | $161,125.33 |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | $191,047.38 | $187,559.38 |

## What specific inflation or employment data thresholds could trigger a Federal Reserve pivot towards a rate cut before the end of 2026?

Current Federal Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% (as of June 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-later-cuts-as-inflation-persists-rabobank-202606010755) |
Inflation Trigger for Rate Cut | Monthly CPI below 0.2% MoM for multiple months [[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021) |
Unemployment Trigger for Rate Cut | Rising significantly toward 4.7%+ [[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021) |

**The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance amid persistent inflation concerns**

The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance amid persistent inflation concerns. As of June 11, 2026, the federal funds rate has remained at **3.50%**–**3.75%** for three consecutive meetings, with a strong consensus emerging against any rate cuts in 2026 [[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-later-cuts-as-inflation-persists-rabobank-202606010755). This outlook is primarily driven by ongoing inflationary pressures, attributed to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and robust labor **market** performance [[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-later-cuts-as-inflation-persists-rabobank-202606010755). The Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) prioritizes its dual mandate, aiming for a **2%** inflation target while also ensuring labor **market** stability. Officials have indicated that a sustained restrictive policy may be necessary to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched [[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/bowman20260529a.pdf)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm).

A pivot to rate cuts requires specific inflation and employment data. Before the end of 2026, a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards a rate cut would be contingent on several key economic indicators. These include observing multiple consecutive months where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registers below **0.2%** month-over-month, alongside a sustained weakening of the labor **market**, evidenced by unemployment rising significantly towards **4.7%** or higher [[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021). Beyond these primary economic metrics, other potential triggers for a rate cut could encompass a substantial decrease in oil prices following the resolution of geopolitical conflicts, or the emergence of a significant financial stress event [[^]](https://eskisignal.com/when-will-fed-cut-rates-2026/)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021).

## How does the consensus forecast from the June 2026 Reuters economist poll align with current Fed funds futures pricing for the remainder of the year?

Fed Rate Forecast 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% (Reuters economist poll, June 2026) [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://www.ibtimes.com/economists-no-longer-expect-fed-cut-interest-rates-this-year-poll-shows-3803868)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-interest-rates-hold-through-2026-inflation/) |
Economists Forecasting No Cuts | Nearly 70% (72 of 102) (Reuters poll, June 2026) [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://www.ibtimes.com/economists-no-longer-expect-fed-cut-interest-rates-this-year-poll-shows-3803868)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-interest-rates-hold-through-2026-inflation/) |
Prediction Market Odds for 0 Cuts | Approximately 80% (as of June 8, 2026) [[^]](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026) |

**Economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates**

Economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates. The June 2026 Reuters economist poll indicates a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady within the **3.50%**–**3.75%** range for the remainder of 2026 [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://www.ibtimes.com/economists-no-longer-expect-fed-cut-interest-rates-this-year-poll-shows-3803868)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-interest-rates-hold-through-2026-inflation/). This outlook is reflected in Fed funds futures **market** pricing as of June 2026, which has shifted to align with this consensus, largely abandoning previous expectations for rate cuts [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/brief/fed/fed-rates-markets-brief-june-07-2026-markets-lean-toward-a-prolonged-hold-2026-06-07/).

Most economists forecast no rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. Specifically, nearly **70%** (72 of 102) of surveyed economists in the June 2026 Reuters poll project no rate cuts this year [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://www.ibtimes.com/economists-no-longer-expect-fed-cut-interest-rates-this-year-poll-shows-3803868)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-interest-rates-hold-through-2026-inflation/). This perspective is further supported by Fed funds futures **market** pricing as of June 2026, which in some instances, is even pricing in the possibility of at least one rate hike by year-end [[^]](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-as-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-ce7f5dd3d088ff26)[[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/brief/fed/fed-rates-markets-brief-june-07-2026-markets-lean-toward-a-prolonged-hold-2026-06-07/). Similarly, the prediction **market** "Number of rate cuts in 2026?" reflects this outlook, with odds for "0" cuts (0 bps) at approximately **80%** as of June 8, 2026 [[^]](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026).

## How do the 2026 monetary policy projections from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan compare regarding the timing and direction of the next rate move?

Goldman Sachs 2026 Rate Cuts | No cuts projected, easing delayed until 2027 [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-pushes-fed-rate-cut-call-to-2027-on-strong-us-jobs-data-ce7f5dd2dc8ef62d)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-pushes-fed-rate-cut-call-2027-strong-us-jobs-data-2026-06-08/)[[^]](https://invezz.com/au/news/2026/06/08/fed-cuts-delayed-again-goldman-sachs-now-sees-easing-only-in-2027/) |
J.P. Morgan 2026 Rate Outlook | Rates to hold steady through 2026 [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)[[^]](https://headlinesbriefing.com/market/bloomberg-markets/jpmorgan-predicts-fed-to-hold-rates-steady-after-may-cpi-peak-e8f45548)[[^]](https://nai500.com/blog/2026/06/inflation-hits-three-year-high-but-j-p-morgan-asset-management-expects-fed-to-hold-steady/) |
J.P. Morgan Next Rate Move | 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027 [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts) |

**Regarding the 2026 monetary policy projections, both Goldman Sachs and J.P**

Regarding the 2026 monetary policy projections, both Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan anticipate no Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectations for any easing until 2027, citing strong labor **market** data and economic activity as of June 2026 as key factors [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-pushes-fed-rate-cut-call-to-2027-on-strong-us-jobs-data-ce7f5dd2dc8ef62d)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-pushes-fed-rate-cut-call-2027-strong-us-jobs-data-2026-06-08/)[[^]](https://invezz.com/au/news/2026/06/08/fed-cuts-delayed-again-goldman-sachs-now-sees-easing-only-in-2027/). Similarly, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current levels throughout the remainder of 2026 [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)[[^]](https://headlinesbriefing.com/**market**/bloomberg-markets/jpmorgan-predicts-fed-to-hold-rates-steady-after-may-cpi-peak-e8f45548)[[^]](https://nai500.com/blog/2026/06/inflation-hits-three-year-high-but-j-p-morgan-asset-management-expects-fed-to-hold-steady/).

Beyond 2026, the firms' projections for the next rate move show a significant divergence. J.P. Morgan's next anticipated policy adjustment is a 25 basis point rate hike, projected for the third quarter of 2027 [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts). This outlook contrasts with broader **market** sentiment, as prediction markets in June 2026 overwhelmingly forecast zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with "0 cuts" probabilities ranging from approximately **66%** to **79%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/number-of-rate-cuts-in-2026-dec-31-2026/)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026).

## What are the key release dates for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs reports ahead of the final three FOMC meetings of 2026?

Final 2026 FOMC Meeting Dates | Sep 15–16, Oct 27–28, Dec 8–9 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240809a.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-december.htm) |
Latest CPI for Dec FOMC | October 2026 CPI on Tue Nov 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) |
Latest Jobs Report for Dec FOMC | November 2026 Employment Situation on Fri Dec 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) |

**The final three FOMC meetings of 2026 will occur in September, October, and December**

The final three FOMC meetings of 2026 will occur in September, October, and December. These Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meetings are scheduled for September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240809a.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-december.htm). Ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for July and August 2026 are set for release on August 12 and September 11, 2026, respectively [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Similarly, the Employment Situation reports for July and August 2026 will be released on August 7 and September 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm). These same CPI and Employment Situation reports for July and August will also have been released prior to the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm).

Additional economic data will precede the final December 2026 FOMC meeting. Before the December 8–9 meeting, the October 2026 CPI report is scheduled for release on November 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Furthermore, the Employment Situation reports for October and November 2026 are slated for release on November 6 and December 4, 2026, respectively [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm).

## Which potential geopolitical events or energy market shocks in H2 2026 pose the most significant risk to the Fed's current 'no-cut' stance?

Current Federal Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% (as of June 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://blogerroom.com/finance/fomc-june-17-meeting-will-the-fed-raise-rates-as-inflation-hits-a-three-year-high) |
Geopolitical Oil Price Scenario | Brent potentially exceeding $100–$130/bbl [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/how-prolonged-middle-east-crisis-would-impact-energy-prices-and-eu-economy-2026-05-27_en)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top) |
2026 Rate Cut Probability | High probability of no rate cuts [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds)[[^]](https://blogerroom.com/finance/fomc-june-17-meeting-will-the-fed-raise-rates-as-inflation-hits-a-three-year-high) |

**Geopolitical tensions and tariffs threaten energy markets and economic stability**

Geopolitical tensions and tariffs threaten energy markets and economic stability. The primary geopolitical risks threatening the Federal Reserve's 'no-cut' stance in the second half of 2026 include the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and destabilize the energy **market** [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/how-prolonged-middle-east-crisis-would-impact-energy-prices-and-eu-economy-2026-05-27_en)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top). Additionally, an escalation of U.S. tariff policies is identified as a risk that could trigger synchronized global economic downturns [[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/). Such events could complicate the Fed's position by potentially leading to a 'stagflation trap' where rate hikes exacerbate a growth-negative supply shock [[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/). The oil **market** is consistently highlighted as a key indicator for the impact of geopolitical events [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Htrn-PNOpE0).

High oil prices would force the Fed to maintain its current stance. Sustained high oil prices, with Brent crude potentially surpassing **$100**–**$130** per barrel in escalation scenarios, would represent a significant economic shock [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/how-prolonged-middle-east-crisis-would-impact-energy-prices-and-eu-economy-2026-05-27_en)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top). This shock would compel the Federal Reserve to prioritize inflation control over economic growth, thereby reinforcing its 'no-cut' position [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/how-prolonged-middle-east-crisis-would-impact-energy-prices-and-eu-economy-2026-05-27_en)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top). As of June 11, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintains its 'no-cut' stance, with the target federal funds rate set at **3.50%**–**3.75%** [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/us-iran-war-brent-94-oil-fed-rate-cut-pce-inflation-transmission-channel-2026)[[^]](https://macrostance.com/geopolitics/tariffs-hormuz-fed-global-risk)[[^]](https://stockwirex.com/analysis/iran-strikes-ppi-stagflation-fed-june-2026/)[[^]](https://blogerroom.com/finance/fomc-june-17-meeting-will-the-fed-raise-rates-as-inflation-hits-a-three-year-high). **Market** expectations and futures pricing indicate a high likelihood of no rate cuts in 2026, with significant speculation about at least one 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end, dependent on energy price trends and broader inflationary data [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds)[[^]](https://blogerroom.com/finance/fomc-june-17-meeting-will-the-fed-raise-rates-as-inflation-hits-a-three-year-high).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Prediction markets overwhelmingly expect zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with probability estimates for "zero cuts" ranging between ~63% and ~79% as of June 11, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxratecutcount/number-of-rate-cuts/kxratecutcount-26dec31)[[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-june-gate-prediction-market-data-reveals-what-traders-really-expect).** Major financial institutions and Fed watchers have largely pivoted away from expectations of 2026 rate cuts, citing persistent inflation, energy price volatility linked to Middle East/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a resilient U.S. labor **market** [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/federal-reserve-to-resist-the-urge-to-hike-us-rates-200681969)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets). The **market** focus has shifted from "when" cuts will occur to "how long" high interest rates will persist, with the June 16–17, 2026, FOMC meeting widely viewed as a guaranteed "hold" with 96–**99%** **probability** [[^]](https://www.gate.com/blog/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-june-gate-prediction-**market**-data-reveals-what-traders-really-expect)[[^]](https://predictionauthority.com/economy/fed-decision-june-2026-prediction-markets/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets).

**Key catalysts that could influence the Federal Reserve's stance include the duration of geopolitical conflicts affecting energy and commodity prices [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts), the trajectory of inflation, specifically PCE and CPI [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/), and the health of the labor market [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/).** Additionally, the impact of AI-driven investment demand on the neutral rate of interest is considered a significant factor [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year). Some forecasts now explicitly **model** no cuts for the remainder of 2026, with potential rate hikes being discussed [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year)[[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-changes-fed-rate-calls-now-sees-no-cuts-in-2026-ce7f5dd2dc80f021)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/fedviews/2026/06/sf-fedviews-june-4-2026/)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/federal-reserve-to-resist-the-urge-to-hike-us-rates-200681969)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2027
- **Closes:** January 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Prediction markets overwhelmingly expect zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with **probability** estimates for "zero cuts" ranging between ~**63%** and ~**79%** as of June 11, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Major financial institutions and Fed watchers have largely pivoted away from expectations of 2026 rate cuts, citing persistent inflation, energy price volatility linked to Middle East/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a resilient U.S.
- Labor **market** [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- The **market** focus has shifted from "when" cuts will occur to "how long" high interest rates will persist, with the June 16–17, 2026, FOMC meeting widely viewed as a guaranteed "hold" with 96–**99%** **probability** [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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