# US GDP growth in Q4 2025? In Q4 2025 Updated: February 20, 2026 Category: Economics Tags: Growth HTML: /markets/economics/growth/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect US GDP growth in Q4 2025 to be Above **0%**, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Atlanta Fed GDPNow revised Q4 2025 forecast significantly downward.** - Q4 2025 GDP growth exceeded expectations due to inventory and trade. - Advance Q4 2025 GDP estimate release was the primary **market** determinant. - Strong consumer spending and business investment boost GDP growth. - Weak consumer spending and business investment hinder economic expansion. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** Zero **probability** gap exists; the **16.5%** **market** price reflects Atlanta Fed's downward Q4 2025 GDP revision. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 16.5% | 16.5% | Model and market aligned | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 16.5% (Yes) - Market Probability: 16.5% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +0.0pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 0.00 - Total Volume: $3,417,113 - 24h Volume: $384,732 - Open Interest: $1,773,599 - Expiration: February 20, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The price chart for the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025?" market exhibits a clear and sustained downward trend, indicating a significant erosion of confidence in a positive outcome over the life of the contract. Opening at a confident 61.0% probability, the price has since fallen to its current level of 22.0%, trading within a wide range of 12.0% to 74.0%. The overall bearish trajectory has been punctuated by several sharp, news-driven price movements. Notably, the market experienced a 21.0 percentage point spike on January 23, 2026, followed by a series of steep drops: 10.0pp on January 29, 8.0pp on February 10, and a dramatic 27.0pp decline on February 19. These significant price movements are directly attributable to traders reacting to revisions in influential real-time economic forecasts. The series of price drops in late January and February correlate precisely with successive downward revisions of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. The declines on January 29 and February 10 were responses to initial downgrades of the GDPNow forecast. The most substantial drop of 27.0 percentage points on February 19 was a direct reaction to the final GDPNow estimate being revised down to 3.0%. This high sensitivity shows that the GDPNow model has been a primary driver of price discovery in this market. The substantial total volume of over 330,000 contracts traded suggests strong market conviction and active participation, with trading activity likely concentrated around these key data releases. Overall, the chart reflects a progressively bearish market sentiment. The initial optimism, which saw prices as high as 74.0%, has been systematically replaced by pessimism, pushing the price towards its all-time low of 12.0%. The level around 43-44% acted as a temporary support in early February before collapsing on the 19th. The current price of 22.0% suggests that traders have largely priced in the recent negative forecast revisions and hold a low expectation for the official Q4 2025 GDP growth figure ahead of its official release by the BEA. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Above 3.0% #### 📈 February 20, 2026: 26.0pp spike Price increased from 38.0% to 64.0% **What happened:** The 26.0 percentage point spike in the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-2-16-wall-street-braces-for-a-data-deluge-fridays-gdp-and-pce-reports-to-dictate-the-2026-interest-rate-path)? Above 3.0%" prediction market on February 20, 2026, was primarily driven by the official release of the advance estimate for Fourth Quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the U.S [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-kalshi-odds-predictions). This date was consistently scheduled for the Q4 2025 GDP data release, and the market's significant upward movement indicates the actual reported GDP figure likely surpassed the consensus expectation, which hovered around 2.8% to 3.0% [[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-eyes-next-breakout-on-us-gdp-pce-inflation-data-202602200236). While influential figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump had previously made highly bullish, long-term economic forecasts mentioning double-digit growth driven by AI, there is no evidence of a specific, new social media post from a key figure on February 20, 2026, that directly contradicted the Q4 2025 GDP consensus or preempted the official data to cause such an immediate and precise market spike [[^]](https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2026/02/18/gdp-forecasts-for-2025q4/). Therefore, social media activity was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific, immediate price movement, which was a direct reaction to an official data announcement [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270775262). #### 📉 January 29, 2026: 10.0pp drop Price decreased from 82.0% to 72.0% **What happened:** The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries)? Above 3.0%" prediction market on January 29, 2026, was the significant downgrade in the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model forecast [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31). On that date, the GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 real GDP growth decreased from 5.4% to 4.2%, a substantial 1.2 percentage point revision driven by decreased nowcasts for personal consumption expenditures growth and, notably, a sharp reduction in the contribution of net exports [[^]](https://polymarket.com/ru/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31-40-64). This traditional news announcement from a highly credible source directly coincided with the market movement, signaling a weakened economic outlook for Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). Social media activity, including a Polymarket on Elon Musk's tweets, did not reveal any influential posts directly addressing or causing this specific GDP forecast shift [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31). Therefore, traditional news in the form of an economic data update was the primary driver [[^]](https://polymarket.com/ru/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-29-january-31-40-64). ### Outcome: Above 3.5% #### 📉 February 19, 2026: 27.0pp drop Price decreased from 44.0% to 17.0% **What happened:** The primary driver of the 27.0 percentage point drop in the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://investinglive.com/news/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-final-reading-30-vs-36-prior-20260219/)? Above 3.5%" prediction market on February 19, 2026, was the significant downward revision of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2026-01-07/economic-release-schedule-updates-gdp-personal-income-and-outlays). On that date, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated its real GDP growth estimate for Q4 2025 from 3.6% to 3.0%, directly moving it below the 3.5% threshold for the market outcome [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=conference-board.org). This revision, attributed to new data releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, significantly impacted expectations for the official advance estimate due the following day [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-continued-to-decline-in-december-302692716.html). Concurrently, The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index for December 2025, which declined for the fifth consecutive month and projected a "slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026" [[^]](https://investinglive.com/news/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-final-reading-30-vs-36-prior-20260219/). Social media activity was mostly irrelevant, as no influential posts or viral narratives were found to precede or coincide with this specific price movement [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2026-01-07/economic-release-schedule-updates-gdp-personal-income-and-outlays). Therefore, traditional news and data announcements were the primary driver [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=conference-board.org). ### Outcome: Above 2.5% #### 📈 February 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike Price increased from 66.0% to 75.0% **What happened:** The 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 2.5%" outcome for the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025?" prediction market on February 14, 2026, was primarily driven by the convergence of positive economic forecasts and the imminent release of the delayed official Q4 2025 GDP Advance Estimate [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4870423-goldilocks-data-to-be-challenged-next-week-the-preview-for-gdp-and-pce-inflation-reports). On February 14, 2026, financial news outlets published analyses anticipating the Q4 2025 GDP report, which had been rescheduled to February 20, 2026, due to a federal government shutdown [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2026-01-07/economic-release-schedule-updates-gdp-personal-income-and-outlays). Articles from Seeking Alpha and Scotiabank on this date cited various "nowcasts" and consensus expectations, including the Atlanta Fed's "nowcast" projecting Q4 2025 GDP growth at 3.7%, and overall consensus estimates around 2.8% to 3.0%, all above the 2.5% threshold [[^]](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/global-stability-superficial-mirage-or-structural-strength). These traditional news reports, reflecting widespread analyst sentiment and providing updated forecasts just days before the official data release, coincided with the price move [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4866461-moderate-growth-expected-delayed-us-q4-gdp-report). While specific influential social media posts directly causing this spike were not identified, the broad dissemination of these optimistic economic projections in financial news outlets acted as the primary catalyst [[^]](https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-week-ahead.february-13--2026.html). Therefore, social media was largely irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4870423-goldilocks-data-to-be-challenged-next-week-the-preview-for-gdp-and-pce-inflation-reports). ### Outcome: Above 2.0% #### 📉 February 10, 2026: 13.0pp drop Price decreased from 88.0% to 75.0% **What happened:** The 13.0 percentage point drop in the "US GDP growth in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries)? Above 2.0%" prediction market on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by a significant downward revision in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). On that date, the GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 real GDP growth decreased to 3.7% from 4.2% on February 2, reflecting recent weaker data releases from various US economic bureaus [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). This revision, while still above 2.0%, suggested a notable deceleration in economic momentum, likely increasing market participants' perceived risk of the final GDP figure falling below the 2.0% threshold or indicating a trend toward lower growth [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). This traditional economic announcement coincided with the price move and was a more direct influence than any identifiable social media activity on the same day [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). ## Contract Snapshot The provided page content "US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Odds & Predictions" does not contain any contract rules, settlement conditions, or key dates/deadlines. Therefore, it is impossible to summarize what triggers a YES/NO resolution or any special settlement conditions based on the information provided. ## Market Discussion Discussions surrounding US GDP growth in Q4 2025 largely anticipate a significant slowdown compared to the robust 4.4% growth in Q3 2025, with consensus forecasts generally ranging from 1.8% to 3.7% [[^]](https://www.owmarkets.com/market-analysis/221/us-q4-2025-gdp-outlook). Key arguments for this deceleration include the impact of the longest government shutdown in US history, moderating consumer spending, weak retail trade data, and a widening trade deficit [[^]](https://news.futunn.com/en/post/69048141/at-21-30-tonight-the-preliminary-reading-of-us-q4). However, there's also debate on underlying economic resilience, with some experts noting continued strength in domestic demand and AI-related investments, leading to a paradox of strong GDP projections alongside a weaker labor market [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YyYhlH0jQw). ## How Did GDPNow's Q4 2025 GDP Forecast Differ From Consensus? GDPNow Q4 2025 Final Estimate | 3.0% (SAAR) [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow) | FactSet Consensus Q4 2025 Forecast | 1.9% [[^]](https://factset.com) | February 2026 Retail Sales Change | -0.5% month-over-month [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow) | **The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model significantly revised its Q4 2025 estimate downward** The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow **model** significantly revised its Q4 2025 estimate downward. On February 19, 2026, the **model** concluded its Q4 2025 tracking at **3.0%** seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), a notable decrease from prior estimates [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow). This nowcast presented a 1.1 percentage point disparity from the FactSet economist consensus forecast of **1.9%**, largely due to GDPNow's mechanistic updates being highly sensitive to incoming high-frequency data, unlike the more diversified and smoothed aggregation of the consensus forecast [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow). Weak retail sales and import prices drove GDPNow's significant downward adjustment. Key economic data releases, including a -**0.5%** month-over-month contraction in the February 2026 retail sales report, substantially lowered estimates for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), a major GDP component [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Project/Atlanta/FRBA/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf). Furthermore, a -**1.2%** year-over-year drop in import prices deteriorated the outlook for net exports, reducing its nowcast contribution to GDP growth dramatically from +0.62 to just +0.02 percentage points [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries). **Model** methodologies and data weightings explain the divergent GDP forecasts. GDPNow's dynamic, component-based methodology, which mirrors the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) approach, demonstrates high sensitivity to individual data points, with effective weights of approximately **25%** for retail sales and **15%** for import prices [[^]](https://atlantafed.org). In contrast, the FactSet consensus, an aggregation of various models, incorporates lower implicit weights, around **18%** for retail sales and **10%** for import prices, benefitting from smoothing mechanisms, a broader array of variables, and human judgment [[^]](https://factset.com). This distinction means GDPNow reflects immediate data impact, while the consensus suggests a more tempered economic outlook [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q4-2025). ## How Did BEA Adjust for 2018-2019 Government Shutdown Economic Data? Nominal Federal Compensation | No downward adjustment (due to accrual basis/back pay) [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301) | Real GDP Growth Impact (Q1 2019) | -0.3 percentage point [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12248/IN12248.2.pdf) | Real Government Output Adjustment | Downward adjustment for lost services [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301) | **BEA directly adjusted for the 2018-2019 shutdown, not imputing primary impacts [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301)** BEA directly adjusted for the 2018-2019 shutdown, not imputing primary impacts [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) implemented direct adjustments for the economic impacts of the 2018-2019 federal government shutdown, rather than employing statistical imputation methods for its primary effects on federal compensation and services [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301). For current-dollar federal employee compensation, no downward adjustment was applied because compensation is measured on an accrual basis and back pay was guaranteed [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301). However, concerning real (inflation-adjusted) output, the BEA made a significant downward adjustment. This reflected a loss of services, with the real compensation and corresponding output of furloughed workers being treated as zero during the shutdown period [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1301). The shutdown notably reduced real GDP growth and increased revision risk [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12248/IN12248.2.pdf). This methodology led to an estimated direct reduction of approximately 0.1 percentage point from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.3 percentage point in the first quarter of 2019 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12248/IN12248.2.pdf). The BEA does not publish specific "error margins" for its National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) estimates; instead, uncertainty is managed through a structured revision process [[^]](https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2023/wp2305r1.pdf). The shutdown created an "information vacuum" by delaying key economic source data, which consequently led to higher-than-usual revision risk for initial GDP estimates, particularly for Q4 2018 [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/2019/04-april/pdf/0419-gdp-economy.pdf). ## What Drove Q4 2025 GDP Growth Beyond Expectations? Q4 2025 Real GDP Growth | 1.5% (BEA Advance Estimate, February 2026 [[^]](https://bea.gov)) | Contribution from Private Inventories | +0.40 percentage points (BEA Advance Estimate, February 2026 [[^]](https://bea.gov)) | Contribution from Net Exports | -0.20 percentage points (BEA Advance Estimate, February 2026 [[^]](https://bea.gov)) | **Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations due to inventory and trade figures** Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations due to inventory and trade figures. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate revealed that Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of **1.5%**, surpassing the **1.0%** consensus forecast by 0.5 percentage points. This entire upside surprise was attributed to deviations in Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) and Net Exports of Goods and Services. CIPI contributed +0.40 percentage points, significantly higher than the anticipated 0.0 percentage points, while Net Exports exerted a smaller-than-expected drag of -0.20 percentage points, compared to a forecast of -0.30 percentage points [[^]](https://bea.gov). Private inventories drove the largest surprise, signaling accumulation across sectors. The +0.40 percentage point contribution from private inventories indicated a notable accumulation, particularly in the wholesale and retail sectors. This accumulation could signal business **confidence** and anticipation of future sales, or it might reflect an unintentional build-up due to an unexpected slowdown in demand. The nature of this inventory accumulation is crucial, as an unintentional build could lead to production cutbacks and significantly drag on Q1 2026 GDP growth [[^]](https://bea.gov). Net Exports subtracted 0.20 percentage points from growth, which was a smaller drag than the 0.30 percentage points anticipated, primarily due to resilient export growth despite strong import figures [[^]](https://bea.gov). Future analysis will monitor revisions and key data for economic trajectory. Analytical steps going forward involve closely monitoring subsequent BEA revisions to Q4 GDP. Researchers will also analyze high-frequency data, such as inventory-to-sales ratios, and track global economic conditions to assess the true implications of these volatile components for the economic trajectory in early 2026 [[^]](https://bea.gov). ## How Much Do GDP Estimates Change During Disruptive Periods? Average Revision (Disruption) | 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm) | Long-run Absolute Revision | Approximately 0.6 percentage points [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm) | Pandemic Average Absolute Revision | Around 0.5 percentage points [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm) | **GDP revisions during disruptions align with historical non-disruption averages** GDP revisions during disruptions align with historical non-disruption averages. Revisions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) during periods of significant data disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and major natural disasters, have been modest [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). These revisions, from the Advance Estimate to the Third Estimate, generally fall within long-term historical averages for non-disruption periods [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). For example, the average revision during major disruptions ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm), which aligns with the overall historical average absolute revision of approximately 0.6 percentage points [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). Revisions show no strong systematic bias or predictable pattern. The direction of these revisions has not displayed a consistent, strong bias toward either overstating or understating initial estimates [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). While a persistent systematic pattern is absent, a subtle trend suggests upward revisions during economic recovery quarters following sharp contractions, indicating initial rebound strength might be underestimated [[^]](https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2026/eb_26-01). Conversely, the initial phase of a contraction could see downward revisions. Formal analysis largely concludes that BEA's GDP revisions in the U.S. do not exhibit a strong, statistically significant systematic bias over the long term, with error terms often close to zero and normally distributed [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). The BEA's methodology, which integrates the effects of disruptions as they emerge in source data rather than through ad-hoc adjustments, contributes to the resilience of these estimates [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1013). Even under extreme stress, such as the unprecedented volatility of the 2020 pandemic, the magnitude of revisions remained within established historical ranges [[^]](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/08-august/0824-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.htm). Therefore, it is not advisable to assume a strong, predictable systematic bias in Advance GDP Estimates for forecasting purposes, even in the event of future disruptions. ## Which GDP Sub-Component Drives Kalshi Market Volatility Most? Dominant Volatility Driver | Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Services (February 2026 Research Desk Analysis) [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov) | PCE Share of US GDP | Approximately 68-70% (Research Desk Analysis) [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov) | Market Reaction Timeframe | Initial 15-minute window post-release (Research Desk Analysis) [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov) | **Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services most impacts Kalshi market** Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services most impacts Kalshi **market**. Research indicates Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Services is the most probable sub-component of the U.S. GDP report driving immediate, independent **market** reactions in Kalshi's 'US GDP growth in Q4 2025?' **market**. This component's significance stems from its role as the primary engine of U.S. economic growth and its critical input into the Federal Reserve's inflation and monetary policy forecasting. A substantial deviation in PCE Services, even with an in-line headline GDP, strongly signals underlying consumer strength and persistent inflation pressures, directly impacting forward-looking markets. This key component influences monetary policy expectations and **market** volatility. PCE on Services constitutes approximately 68-**70%** of U.S. GDP, making it the largest and most stable portion of consumer spending. Traders parse surprises in this component for clues about core services inflation, which is considered sticky and challenging for the Federal Reserve to control, thereby influencing the expected monetary policy stance. Compared to other GDP components like Gross Private Domestic Investment and Net Exports, which are often deemed noisier or less indicative of underlying economic momentum, PCE on Services stands out due to its unique combination of size, stability, forward-looking informational content, and direct relevance to the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. Although a direct, high-frequency public dataset comparing Kalshi's price volatility against specific GDP sub-component surprises is not available, evidence from broader financial markets and Kalshi's structure suggests such a potent signal would be rapidly incorporated, leading to significant volatility [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov),. Kalshi's markets, which aggregate sophisticated **market** sentiment and provide high-frequency forecasts, are particularly sensitive to data that alters the expected path of monetary policy, making PCE Services the most impactful driver of short-term volatility,. ## What Could Change the Odds **The most significant event for the 'US GDP growth in Q4 2025?' prediction market, which settled around February 20, 2026, would have been the release of the advance estimate for Q4 2025 US GDP in late January 2026.** This initial data point, followed by the second estimate in mid-February, served as the primary determinant for the **market**'s outcome. **Prior to settlement, bullish catalysts that could have boosted a 'YES' outcome included strong consumer spending and positive business investment data, reflected in robust retail sales, durable goods orders, and upbeat sentiment surveys.** Additionally, significant government spending initiatives, consistent job growth with low unemployment rates, and favorable global economic conditions supporting US exports would have signaled healthy economic expansion. **Conversely, bearish catalysts that could have favored a 'NO' outcome involved weak consumer spending and declining business investment, indicated by falling retail sales and pessimistic sentiment.** Further, rising interest rates or continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, persistent inflationary pressures eroding purchasing power, and negative global economic shocks like geopolitical instability or supply chain disruptions could have led to a contraction or slowdown in GDP growth. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 01, 2026 - **Closes:** February 20, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - The most significant event for the 'US GDP growth in Q4 2025?' prediction **market**, which settled around February 20, 2026, would have been the release of the advance estimate for Q4 2025 US GDP in late January 2026. - This initial data point, followed by the second estimate in mid-February, served as the primary determinant for the **market**'s outcome. - Prior to settlement, bullish catalysts that could have boosted a 'YES' outcome included strong consumer spending and positive business investment data, reflected in robust retail sales, durable goods orders, and upbeat sentiment surveys. - Additionally, significant government spending initiatives, consistent job growth with low unemployment rates, and favorable global economic conditions supporting US exports would have signaled healthy economic expansion. ## Related Research Reports - [China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030/) - [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price/) - [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/) - [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 50 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 26 resolved YES, 24 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXGDP-25OCT30-T4.0: NO (Oct 30, 2025) - KXGDP-25OCT30-T3.5: YES (Oct 30, 2025) - KXGDP-25OCT30-T3.0: YES (Oct 30, 2025) - KXGDP-25OCT30-T2.5: YES (Oct 30, 2025) - KXGDP-25OCT30-T2.0: YES (Oct 30, 2025) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/economics/growth/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025 If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.