# CPI in April

In Apr 2026

Updated: May 5, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Inflation

HTML: /markets/economics/inflation/cpi-in-april/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect CPI in April 2026 to be above -**0.1%**, with strong consensus and no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Persistent energy market tightness contributes to elevated April CPI.** - Energy price increases explicitly pass through to core services inflation.
- Core inflation stabilized during Q1 2026 after modest deceleration.
- Seasonal adjustments typically reduce April's raw month-over-month CPI.
- April US energy inventory reports showed significant supply tightening.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** projects **99.2%** CPI elevation, 2.2pp above the 97c **market**, due to energy's core services pass-through.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 97.0% | 99.2% | Model higher by 2.2pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.2% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 97.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +2.2pp
- Expected Return: +2.3%
- R-Score: 0.32
- Total Volume: $673,124.41
- 24h Volume: $22,845.83
- Open Interest: $304,989.29

- Expiration: May 12, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price chart shows a completely static and sideways trend. The probability has remained unchanged at 97.0% across all 97 data points, from the market's inception through the most recent sample. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. Consequently, recent news regarding the March CPI figures and the upcoming April data release has had no observable impact on the market's price, as it has not deviated from its opening level.

The most critical feature of this market is the total traded volume, which stands at zero contracts. This complete lack of trading activity indicates an absence of market participation and conviction. Without any trades, the concepts of support and resistance levels are not applicable, although 97.0% technically serves as the only price point the market has ever held. The chart does not reflect any genuine market sentiment or consensus because no transactions have occurred to validate the current price. The 97.0% probability represents an offered price but not a traded one, signaling a dormant and illiquid market.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026 increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal), as verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Trading closes on May 12, 2026, at 8:25 AM EDT, with projected payouts occurring an hour and a half later. In the event of a data delay caused by a federal government shutdown, the market's expiration date will be extended.

## Market Discussion

Prediction markets anticipate an acceleration in the April 2026 Consumer Price Index, with Polymarket showing highest probabilities for a monthly increase of 0.5-0.6% [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/april-inflation-us-monthly). Kalshi participants primarily expect the year-over-year CPI to land around 3.6-3.7%, aligning with nowcasts that project 3.56-3.60%, driven notably by a 12.6% rise in gas prices [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpiyoy/year-over-year-inflation/kxeconstatcpiyoy-26apr). This would be an uptick from March 2026's 3.3% YoY headline CPI, with the official release scheduled for May 12, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm).

## What key economic data releases and market events between April 1 and the May 12, 2026 BLS report could significantly impact the final April CPI reading?

April CPI Resolution Date | May 12 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy-may-12-2026/) |
FOMC Meeting Dates | April 28–29 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html) |
Federal Funds Target Range | 3.50%–3.75% [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html) |

**Several key events between April 1 and May 12 will shape April CPI**

Several key events between April 1 and May 12 will shape April CPI. Major economic data releases and **market** events occurring between April 1 and May 12, 2026, are expected to significantly influence the final April CPI reading [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424)[[^]](https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/cpi-date-change-everything-may-12-trump-vs-powell-fed-inflation)[[^]](https://data.bls.gov/schedule/2026/05_sched.htm)[[^]](https://data.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). These include the late-April Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meeting, dynamics in energy markets, and other significant macroeconomic reports. Such events can affect investor pricing for the April CPI print before its resolution date of May 12 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy-may-12-2026/).

The late-April FOMC meeting directly addressed inflation concerns and expectations. The FOMC meeting, held from April 28–29, maintained the federal funds target range at **3.50%**–**3.75%** [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html). During this meeting, the committee specifically highlighted that elevated inflation was partly attributable to recent increases in global energy prices and noted uncertainty stemming from Middle East developments [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm). This event has the potential to reprice rates and real yields, thereby indirectly influencing demand and inflation expectations ahead of the May 12 CPI release [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm).

Energy **market** shocks and other reports will significantly impact April CPI components. An energy **market** shock in the first quarter of 2026, characterized by significant crude and petroleum price increases due to Middle East military action and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to translate into higher gasoline and transportation costs that contribute to April CPI components in subsequent weeks [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424). This transmission from wholesale energy costs to retail pricing is identified as a major volatility channel for CPI between April 1 and May 12 [[^]](https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/cpi-date-change-everything-may-12-trump-vs-powell-fed-inflation). Additionally, other late-cycle macroeconomic releases such as the April employment situation report on May 8, and the timing of PPI and import/export price indexes around May 13, can further shape **market** positioning as the CPI window approaches [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/schedule/2026/05_sched.htm)[[^]](https://data.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm).

## How do the April 2026 CPI forecasting models from Goldman Sachs and Continuum Economics differ in their weighting of energy versus core services inflation?

Continuum Economics Core CPI Factor | Energy feed-through affecting airfares (April 2026 CPI preview) [[^]](https://continuumeconomics.com/a/60020f70/preview-due-may-11-us-april-cpi-energy-to-rise-less-sharply-than-n-march-but-air-fares-to-lift-the-core) |
Goldman Sachs Oil Impact (Headline PCE) | 0.2 percentage points for 10% sustained oil rise [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-lifts-2026-pce-inflation-forecast-amid-ongoing-usiran-deadlock-4645593)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-raises-u-pce-forecast-124702025.html) |
Goldman Sachs Oil Impact (Core PCE) | 0.04 percentage points for 10% sustained oil rise [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-lifts-2026-pce-inflation-forecast-amid-ongoing-usiran-deadlock-4645593)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-raises-u-pce-forecast-124702025.html) |

**Continuum Economics details energy's indirect impact on core services**

Continuum Economics details energy's indirect impact on core services. Their April 2026 CPI preview attributes a lift in core inflation to the feed-through effect of energy prices on core services, particularly airfares [[^]](https://continuumeconomics.com/a/60020f70/preview-due-may-11-us-april-cpi-energy-to-rise-less-sharply-than-n-march-but-air-fares-to-lift-the-core). This demonstrates that their **model** directly weighs the indirect impact of energy on core services for the overall core inflation figure, even if the direct energy price rise is less sharp [[^]](https://continuumeconomics.com/a/60020f70/preview-due-may-11-us-april-cpi-energy-to-rise-less-sharply-than-n-march-but-air-fares-to-lift-the-core).

Goldman Sachs' forecasts provide a broader inflation outlook. Their framework suggests a sustained **10%** increase in oil prices would boost headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) by 0.2 percentage points and core PCE by 0.04 percentage points [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-**market**-news/goldman-sachs-lifts-2026-pce-inflation-forecast-amid-ongoing-usiran-deadlock-4645593)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-raises-u-pce-forecast-124702025.html). Furthermore, Goldman Sachs projects a 0.35 percentage point core inflation boost in 2026 stemming from commodities [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-**market**-news/goldman-sachs-lifts-2026-pce-inflation-forecast-amid-ongoing-usiran-deadlock-4645593)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-raises-u-pce-forecast-124702025.html). However, specific details for a Goldman Sachs April 2026 CPI preview are not available, nor is there information detailing how their models specifically weight energy's impact on core services inflation for that particular month's CPI forecast [[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/finance/goldman-just-released-inflation-playbook-143448291.html).

## What do recent trends from the BLS in core inflation (ex-food and energy) during Q1 2026 suggest for the Federal Reserve's likely interpretation of the April data?

Core CPI (ex-food & energy) Jan 2026 | +0.3% (SA) [[^]](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/41095104.4229/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxzLmdvdi9uZXdzLnJlbGVhc2UvcGRmL2NwaS5wZGY/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B66e534bf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?gsid=7337d572-7078-4d1a-9288-1faba1d8bd64)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm) |
Core CPI (ex-food & energy) Feb 2026 | +0.2% (SA) [[^]](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/41095104.4229/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxzLmdvdi9uZXdzLnJlbGVhc2UvcGRmL2NwaS5wZGY/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B66e534bf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?gsid=7337d572-7078-4d1a-9288-1faba1d8bd64)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm) |
Core CPI (ex-food & energy) Mar 2026 | +0.2% (SA) [[^]](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/41095104.4229/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxzLmdvdi9uZXdzLnJlbGVhc2UvcGRmL2NwaS5wZGY/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B66e534bf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?gsid=7337d572-7078-4d1a-9288-1faba1d8bd64)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm) |

**Core inflation stabilized throughout the first quarter of 2026, following a modest deceleration**

Core inflation stabilized throughout the first quarter of 2026, following a modest deceleration. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, demonstrated this pattern in Q1 2026. Monthly increases for the seasonally adjusted core Consumer Price Index (CPI) were +**0.3%** in January, followed by +**0.2%** in both February and March [[^]](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/41095104.4229/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxzLmdvdi9uZXdzLnJlbGVhc2UvcGRmL2NwaS5wZGY/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B66e534bf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?gsid=7337d572-7078-4d1a-9288-1faba1d8bd64)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm). The year-over-year core rate began at **2.5%** in January and slightly increased to **2.6%** by March, suggesting that underlying inflation stabilized rather than re-accelerated during this period [[^]](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/41095104.4229/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxzLmdvdi9uZXdzLnJlbGVhc2UvcGRmL2NwaS5wZGY/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B66e534bf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?gsid=7337d572-7078-4d1a-9288-1faba1d8bd64)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm).

The Federal Reserve prioritizes core inflation for policy assessment, specifically using core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/federal-open-**market**-committee-meeting-minutes-transcripts-documents-677/meeting-march-17-18-2026-721155/content/fulltext/FOMCpresconf20260318). The Fed's March 2026 meeting materials indicate that staff projections anticipated a near-term effect from higher energy prices due to crude oil increases [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/federal-open-**market**-committee-meeting-minutes-transcripts-documents-677/meeting-march-17-18-2026-721155/content/fulltext/FOMCpresconf20260318). However, they expect inflation to revert toward its prior disinflationary trend once these temporary energy impacts dissipate [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/federal-open-**market**-committee-meeting-minutes-transcripts-documents-677/meeting-march-17-18-2026-721155/content/fulltext/FOMCpresconf20260318). This implies that the Federal Reserve will likely analyze April's core inflation data by separating it from transient energy price influences, with a focus on the anticipated return to a disinflationary trajectory [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/federal-open-**market**-committee-meeting-minutes-transcripts-documents-677/meeting-march-17-18-2026-721155/content/fulltext/FOMCpresconf20260318). Prediction markets for April CPI also underscore core inflation as a critical factor due to the potential for headline CPI distortion caused by a March gasoline and energy shock [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/april-inflation-us-monthly)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/april-inflation-us-monthly)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/cpi-in-april-may-12-2026/).

## What seasonal adjustment factors and component-level trends does the Bureau of Labor Statistics data for April CPI from 2021-2025 reveal?

Typical Seasonal Adjustment | 0.2-0.3% (all items m-o-m change) [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth)[[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth&output_view=pct_12mths) |
April NSA All Items M-o-M (2021-2025) | 0.8% in 2021 to 0.3% in 2025 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth) |
April SA Core CPI M-o-M | Stable at 0.2-0.3% [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth&output_view=pct_12mths)[[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL/9) |

**Seasonal adjustment typically reduces April's raw month-over-month CPI change**

Seasonal adjustment typically reduces April's raw month-over-month CPI change. Bureau of Labor Statistics data for April CPI from 2021-2025 indicates that seasonal adjustment generally subtracts 0.2-**0.3%** from the raw all-items month-over-month change, reflecting consistent spring seasonal strength [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth)[[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth&output_view=pct_12mths). Detailed seasonal factors for individual years and components are provided in BLS tables [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/).

All-items and Core CPI exhibited distinct April month-over-month trends. For April, the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) all-items month-over-month change decreased from **0.8%** in 2021 to **0.3%** in 2025 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth). Concurrently, the seasonally adjusted (SA) all-items month-over-month change for April similarly declined, moving from **0.6%** in 2021 to **0.2%** in 2025 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth&output_view=pct_12mths). Regarding component-level trends, seasonally adjusted Core CPI month-over-month changes in April have remained stable, generally between **0.2%** and **0.3%** [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth&output_view=pct_12mths)[[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL/9).

## Following the energy-driven CPI spike in March 2026, what signals from EIA inventory reports and OPEC+ decisions in April could cause another upside surprise?

Gasoline Inventories | 2% below 5-year average (late April 2026) [[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_crude_oil_inventories_drop_more_than_6mm_barrels_wow-30-apr-2026-183581-article/) |
Distillate Inventories | 11% below 5-year average (late April 2026) [[^]](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf) |
US Crude Price | Approximately $102/bbl (late April 2026) [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html) |

**US energy inventory reports in April 2026 indicated significant supply tightening**

US energy inventory reports in April 2026 indicated significant supply tightening. The EIA reported substantial drawdowns in refined fuel products throughout the month. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, 6.3 million barrels, and 6.1 million barrels across different weeks, ending April **2%** below their five-year average [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-stocks-rise-gasoline-distillate-inventories-fall-eia-says-2026-04-08/)[[^]](https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/eia-weekly-petroleum-data-recap-2026-04-15/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf)[[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_crude_oil_inventories_drop_more_than_6mm_barrels_wow-30-apr-2026-183581-article/). Similarly, distillate inventories saw drops of 3.1 million barrels and 4.5 million barrels, concluding the month **11%** below their five-year average [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-stocks-rise-gasoline-distillate-inventories-fall-eia-says-2026-04-08/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf)[[^]](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf). While crude oil inventories experienced some early builds, they ended April with surprise draws of 0.913 million barrels and 6.2 million barrels, though they remained **1%** above the five-year average [[^]](https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/eia-weekly-petroleum-data-recap-2026-04-15/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/eia-us-crude-oil-inventories-143825698.html)[[^]](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf)[[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_crude_oil_inventories_drop_more_than_6mm_barrels_wow-30-apr-2026-183581-article/).

OPEC+ production increases were negated by the continued Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite an OPEC+ agreement on April 5 to increase quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, this theoretical increase was effectively nullified [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-debates-theoretical-oil-output-hike-amid-iran-war-paralysis-sources-say-2026-04-05/)[[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1756597-5-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/opec-raise-output-206-kbd-april-2026-amid-middle-east-tensions.html). The Strait of Hormuz remained closed through late April 2026, severely restricting Middle East oil exports and contributing to elevated US crude prices of approximately **$102** per barrel [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-debates-theoretical-oil-output-hike-amid-iran-war-paralysis-sources-say-2026-04-05/)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html). This situation suggests that actual oil supply remained constrained throughout April, regardless of the planned quota adjustment.

Combined energy signals suggest persistent upward price pressure, potentially impacting CPI. The significant drawdowns in refined product inventories, with both gasoline and distillates falling below their respective five-year averages, coupled with an ineffective OPEC+ quota increase due to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, point to sustained upward pressure on energy prices [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-stocks-rise-gasoline-distillate-inventories-fall-eia-says-2026-04-08/)[[^]](https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/eia-weekly-petroleum-data-recap-2026-04-15/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/eia-us-crude-oil-inventories-143825698.html)[[^]](https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf)[[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_crude_oil_inventories_drop_more_than_6mm_barrels_wow-30-apr-2026-183581-article/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-debates-theoretical-oil-output-hike-amid-iran-war-paralysis-sources-say-2026-04-05/)[[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1756597-5-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/opec-raise-output-206-kbd-april-2026-amid-middle-east-tensions.html)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html). This environment, following a March 2026 CPI headline increase driven by a **21.2%** month-over-month rise in gasoline prices, could lead to another upside surprise for the April Consumer Price Index [[^]](https://www.verifiedinvesting.com/blogs/us-economic-metrics/us-cpi-march-2026-energy-shock-core-inflation)[[^]](https://piedmontcrescentcapital.com/consumer-price-index-march-2026-energy-shock-lifts-headline-core-inflation-remains-contained/)[[^]](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-march-2026).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The U.S.** Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). This is a critical economic indicator providing insight into inflation trends, capable of significantly influencing financial markets [[^]](https://intrinio.com/blog/how-does-cpi-data-affect-the-stock-**market**)[[^]](https://tradefundrr.com/reaction-to-cpi-report/). As of early May 2026, prediction markets suggest an **80%** **probability** that the April 2026 CPI will increase by more than **0.4%** month-over-month [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpi/cpi/kxcpi-26apr). For the year-over-year (YoY) CPI, there are **market** probabilities indicating it could be above **3.2%** (94¢), above **3.5%** (89¢), above **3.6%** (66¢), and above **3.7%** (32¢) [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy-may-12-2026/). Broader forecasts project U.S. inflation to reach **3.50%** by the end of the current quarter according to Trading Economics [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi), while the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates **2.7%** for the entirety of 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/inflation-key-measures-to-understand).

**The outcome of the CPI report will likely sway financial markets.** A higher-than-expected "hotter" CPI reading typically signals rising inflation, potentially prompting central banks to increase interest rates. This can negatively impact stock prices, particularly rate-sensitive and growth/tech sectors, while potentially favoring value stocks and shifting capital to commodities and real estate [[^]](https://intrinio.com/blog/how-does-cpi-data-affect-the-stock-**market**)[[^]](https://tradefundrr.com/reaction-to-cpi-report/)[[^]](https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-cpi-means-for-investors-and-traders-231011)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/what-is-cpi-consumer-price-index/). Conversely, a "softer" or lower CPI reading can bring **market** relief, often leading to a rebound in risk assets and suggesting reduced commodity prices [[^]](https://tradefundrr.com/reaction-to-cpi-report/)[[^]](https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-cpi-means-for-investors-and-traders-231011). Beyond this immediate release, other significant upcoming catalysts include the May 2026 CPI data on June 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release on May 28, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), and Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meetings and their minutes, which influence interest rate expectations [[^]](https://mortgageelements.com/may-2026-economic-calendar/). Factors driving CPI changes generally include supply-side issues like energy and food prices, demand-side pressures from strong consumer spending, and inflation expectations [[^]](https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/inflation-key-measures-to-understand)[[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/11/292)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/sf-fed-blog/2024/11/14/deep-dive-into-drivers-of-cpi-inflation-introducing-our-new-data-page/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 11, 2026
- **Closes:** May 12, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The U.S.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
- (ET) [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- This is a critical economic indicator providing insight into inflation trends, capable of significantly influencing financial markets [^] [^] .

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- [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/)
- [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXCPI-26MAR-T1.3: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPI-26MAR-T1.2: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPI-26MAR-T1.1: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPI-26MAR-T1.0: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPI-26MAR-T0.9: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

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**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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