# Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)

In Apr 2026

Updated: May 7, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Inflation

HTML: /markets/economics/inflation/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY) will be Above **2.3%**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - March 2026 CPI showed a significant increase, informing the outlook.** - Leading indicators suggest April's inflation will likely increase, driven by energy.
- Persistent housing costs and core services are expected to drive inflation.
- The Federal Reserve maintained stable interest rates during early 2026.
- The April 2026 CPI report is scheduled for release May 12, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.2%** **probability** slightly exceeds the 99c **market** price (1.0x payout) amid expected rising energy and housing costs.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 99.0% | 99.2% | Model higher by 0.2pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.2% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 99.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +0.2pp
- Expected Return: +0.3%
- R-Score: 0.03
- Total Volume: $646,864.83
- 24h Volume: $37,566.17
- Open Interest: $371,956.56

- Expiration: May 12, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a highly stable, sideways trend since trading began. The price started at 99.0% and is currently at the same level, indicating a consistent and unchanging outlook from participants. The market has traded within a narrow range of 95.0% to 99.0%. The 99.0% level has acted as a consistent ceiling or resistance point, while the 95.0% mark has functioned as the floor or support level for the price. Notably, there have been no significant price spikes or drops, suggesting that recent forecasts and news, such as the inflation estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, have not impacted this market's pricing.

The total trading volume is extremely low, with only 85 contracts traded over the market's history and many periods showing no volume at all. This low liquidity suggests a lack of broad market participation and may indicate that the price reflects the conviction of only a small number of traders. Despite the thin volume, the persistent high price implies that the existing participants have an exceptionally strong and stable belief that the outcome will resolve to YES. The market sentiment is one of near certainty, and this conviction has remained unshaken by external economic data points provided in the current context.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending April 2026 increases by more than 3.7%, as a one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Conversely, it resolves to 'No' if the increase is 3.7% or less. The market closes on May 12, 2026, at 8:29 AM EDT, with a projected payout by 10:05 AM EDT, and may be extended if data delays occur due to a federal government shutdown impacting the BLS.

## Market Discussion

The consensus points to persistent inflationary pressures in April 2026, primarily driven by elevated energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, with Mutual of America projecting a 3.4% YoY increase in headline CPI and market probabilities indicating a high chance of inflation above 3.5% [[^]](https://www.mutualofamerica.com/insights-and-tools/learning-center/emp/economic--market-perspective-april-2026). Core inflation is anticipated to be more stable, with RBC Economics forecasting an acceleration to 2.7% YoY, while additional pressures stem from rising food prices, "sticky" tariffs, and potential housing data methodology issues [[^]](https://www.mutualofamerica.com/insights-and-tools/learning-center/emp/economic--market-perspective-april-2026). These factors are expected to keep both headline and core inflation rates elevated, complicating the path for the Federal Reserve and reducing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts [[^]](https://www.mutualofamerica.com/insights-and-tools/learning-center/emp/economic--market-perspective-april-2026).

## How might the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in early 2026 influence the final April 2026 CPI reading?

Federal Funds Rate (early 2026) | 3.50%–3.75% [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-january-2026/)[[^]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-april-29-2026)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm) |
Monetary Policy Lag (traditional) | 12 to 24 months [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20230713a.pdf) |
March 2026 CPI (year-over-year) | 3.3% [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026)[[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/inflation-spikes-highest-nearly-two-years) |

**The Federal Reserve maintained stable interest rates during early 2026**

The Federal Reserve maintained stable interest rates during early 2026. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate target range at **3.50%**–**3.75%** in January, March, and April 2026 was expected to influence the April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a delay, rather than immediately [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-january-2026/)[[^]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-april-29-2026)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm)[[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/04/how-quickly-do-prices-respond-to-monetary-policy/). This consistent policy aimed to sustain restrictive financial conditions, guiding inflation toward its long-term target [[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026). This stance followed a period of aggressive rate hikes from March 2022 to August 2023, where rates reached a peak of **5.25%**-**5.50%**, before subsequent reductions in late 2024 and 2025 led to the levels observed in early 2026 [[^]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-april-29-2026).

Monetary policy typically impacts inflation with significant delays. Changes in interest rates gradually affect borrowing costs, investment, and overall demand, thereby influencing prices [[^]](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/04/how-quickly-do-prices-respond-to-monetary-policy/). Traditional estimates suggest that the maximum effect on the real economy can occur between 12 and 24 months after a policy adjustment [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20230713a.pdf). However, some recent research indicates a potentially shorter lag post-2009, with peak inflation deceleration possibly occurring about one year after tightening, although this comes with high uncertainty [[^]](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/have-lags-in-monetary-policy-transmission-shortened/). Conversely, other analyses suggest minimal correlation between the federal funds rate and CPI within a 12-to-18-month timeframe [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2023/07/08/the-long-and-variable-lag--a-dangerous-monetary-policy-myth/).

March 2026 CPI showed a rise from immediate factors. The March 2026 CPI, reported on April 10, 2026, indicated an all-items index increase of **3.3%** year-over-year, rising from **2.4%** in February [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026)[[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/inflation-spikes-highest-nearly-two-years). This increase was primarily driven by a **10.9%** month-over-month surge in energy prices, particularly gasoline, and a **0.3%** increase in shelter costs [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026). The Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation remained elevated, partly due to recent increases in global energy prices [[^]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-april-29-2026). The April 2026 inflation figure was considered more susceptible to immediate economic factors, such as global energy price fluctuations, which had a rapid impact on the March CPI data [[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026)[[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/inflation-spikes-highest-nearly-two-years).

## What do leading indicators like Q1 2026 energy prices and the Producer Price Index (PPI) suggest about the direction of April's headline inflation?

Cleveland Fed April 2026 CPI YoY Nowcast | 3.56% [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our%20research/indicators%20and%20data/inflation%20nowcasting.aspx) |
March 2026 PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.5% [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/Ppi.nr0.htm) |
Polymarket April CPI YoY (3.7%) | 39% [[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/april-inflation-us-annual) |

**Leading indicators suggest that April's headline inflation is likely to show a modest increase, primarily driven by energy prices**

Leading indicators suggest that April's headline inflation is likely to show a modest increase, primarily driven by energy prices. Significant increases in crude and petroleum product prices occurred in Q1 2026 due to Middle East disruptions, leading to late-March retail gasoline and diesel prices reaching their highest real terms in over two years [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424). This momentum from energy, particularly gasoline, which influenced March CPI, suggests that April's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will likely remain higher than the core trend [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://piedmontcrescentcapital.com/consumer-price-index-march-2026-energy-shock-lifts-headline-core-inflation-remains-contained/). Further supporting this outlook, the Cleveland Fed’s April 2026 CPI year-over-year nowcast stands at **3.56%** [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our%20research/indicators%20and%20data/inflation%20nowcasting.aspx).

Broader inflationary pressures beyond energy appear contained, supporting a "headline up / core contained" scenario. The March 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand saw a **0.5%** month-over-month increase, but excluding food, energy, and trade services, it rose by only **0.2%** month-over-month [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/Ppi.nr0.htm). This indicates that producer-cost pressures are not broadening beyond the energy sector, reinforcing the expectation of a "headline up / core contained" outcome for April CPI, rather than a generalized re-acceleration [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/Ppi.nr0.htm). **Market** predictions from Polymarket's "April Inflation US – Annual" contract show leading outcomes for CPI inflation over the 12 months ending April 2026 at **3.7%** (**39%**) and **3.8%** (**30%**), which is consistent with a modestly positive, rather than sharp, upward movement [[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/april-inflation-us-annual).

## How do the April 2026 inflation projections from the Cleveland Fed's 'Nowcasting' model compare with those from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations?

Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (April 2026) | 3.56% [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8008/us-cleveland-inflation-cpi) |
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (April 1, 2026) | 3.71% [[^]](https://whbl.com/2026/04/01/cleveland-fed-data-shows-war-impacting-headline-inflation-data/) |
NY Fed 1-Year Ahead Inflation Expectation (April 2027) | 3.6% [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260507)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ny-fed-survey-of-consumers-households-see-higher-inflation-next-year-202605071702)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4588631-consumers-boost-one-year-inflation-expectations-longer-term-expectations-stable-new-york-fed)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2026/household-inflation-anxiety-edges-higher-new-york-fed-poll/) |

**The Cleveland Fed's 'Nowcasting' model projects April 2026 inflation at 3.56%, a slight decrease**

The Cleveland Fed's 'Nowcasting' **model** projects April 2026 inflation at **3.56%**, a slight decrease. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (YoY) inflation for April 2026 is projected to be **3.56%** [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8008/us-cleveland-inflation-cpi). This projection reflects a slight decline from an earlier nowcast dated April 1, 2026, which had indicated a CPI YoY of **3.71%** for the same month [[^]](https://whbl.com/2026/04/01/cleveland-fed-data-shows-war-impacting-headline-inflation-data/).

Consumers anticipate **3.6%** inflation next year, longer-term expectations remain stable. In contrast, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for April 2026 reveals that households anticipate a one-year-ahead inflation rate (looking towards April 2027) of **3.6%** [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260507)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ny-fed-survey-of-consumers-households-see-higher-inflation-next-year-202605071702)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4588631-consumers-boost-one-year-inflation-expectations-longer-term-expectations-stable-new-york-fed)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2026/household-inflation-anxiety-edges-higher-new-york-fed-poll/). Consumer expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon remained unchanged at **3.1%**, and expectations for the five-year-ahead horizon stayed at **3.0%** [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260507)[[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ny-fed-survey-of-consumers-households-see-higher-inflation-next-year-202605071702)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4588631-consumers-boost-one-year-inflation-expectations-longer-term-expectations-stable-new-york-fed)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2026/household-inflation-anxiety-edges-higher-new-york-fed-poll/). The official CPI data for April 2026 is scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).

## What is the release schedule for key economic data, including the Jobs Report and retail sales data, that will precede the April 2026 CPI report?

April 2026 CPI Report Release | May 12, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) |
April 2026 Jobs Report Release | May 8, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET [[^]](http://stats.bls.gov/schedule/2026/05_sched.htm) |
April 2026 Advance Retail Sales Release | May 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. [[^]](https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html) |

**The April 2026 CPI report releases on May 12, 2026**

The April 2026 CPI report releases on May 12, 2026. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2026, which addresses "Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)," is scheduled for release on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Preceding this, the Jobs Report, officially titled the Employment Situation for April 2026, is scheduled by the BLS for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET [[^]](http://stats.bls.gov/schedule/2026/05_sched.htm). This timing ensures that the Jobs Report will be released before the April 2026 CPI report [[^]](http://stats.bls.gov/schedule/2026/05_sched.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm).

Retail sales data will follow the CPI report. In contrast to the Jobs Report, retail sales data will be made public after the April 2026 CPI report [[^]](https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html). The Census Bureau's 'Advance Monthly Retail Trade' report for April 2026 is scheduled for May 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m., which is two days after the CPI release on May 12 [[^]](https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html). Furthermore, the 'Monthly Retail Trade Report' for April 2026 is scheduled for June 17, 2026, also occurring after the CPI report [[^]](https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html).

## Which specific components within the CPI basket, such as shelter or transportation, are analyst firms like JPMorgan projecting to be the primary drivers of inflation in early 2026?

Primary Inflation Drivers | Shelter and transportation services (early 2026 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/a-baseline-forecast-for-2026/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/2026%20Year-Ahead%20Investment%20Outlook.pdf)) |
CPI Acceleration Expectation | First half of 2026 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/a-baseline-forecast-for-2026/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/2026%20Year-Ahead%20Investment%20Outlook.pdf) |
Rent/OER Distortion Until | April 2026 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/) |

**J.P**

J.P. Morgan Asset Management anticipates core services will primarily drive inflation. The firm projects that core services subcomponents, particularly shelter and transportation services, will be the primary drivers of inflation in early 2026 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/a-baseline-forecast-for-2026/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/**2026%**20Year-Ahead%20Investment%20Outlook.pdf). Their 2026 baseline framework forecasts an acceleration in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation during the first half of 2026, with shelter identified as a key contributor throughout this period [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/a-baseline-forecast-for-2026/)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/**2026%**20Year-Ahead%20Investment%20Outlook.pdf).

Within core services, specific subcomponents are expected to fuel inflation. J.P. Morgan Asset Management identifies "lodging away from home" and rent/Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) as significant subcomponents within the shelter category [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/). The firm notes that rent and OER categories are projected to remain "distorted until the sample panel resets in April 2026" [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/). Additionally, transportation services, including elements such as airfares, are also anticipated to contribute to inflationary pressures [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/did-the-december-cpi-report-change-the-outlook-for-fed-policy/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026, measuring year-over-year (YoY) inflation, is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.** (ET) by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). For context, the all-items CPI for the 12 months ending March 2026 increased by **3.3%** [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/economiccalendar/cpi-733)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)[[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026), a notable increase from the **2.4%** rate observed in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026). More recent probabilities show that there is a **35%** **probability** for exactly **3.7%**, a **28%** **probability** for exactly **3.8%**, and a **20%** **probability** for exactly **3.6%** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpiyoy/year-over-year-inflation/kxeconstatcpiyoy-26apr). The **probability** for the CPI to be above **3.5%** is **87%** [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy-may-12-2026/).

**Energy prices, especially gasoline, saw substantial increases in March 2026, contributing to the overall CPI surge [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)[[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026)[[^]](https://aetas-partners.com/market-commentary-april-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026).** Goldman Sachs attributes a **10.9%** spike in energy prices in March to the onset of a conflict in the Middle East [[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026). Housing costs are anticipated to contribute to an acceleration in core inflation for April 2026 [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/inflation-pressures-build-as-consumers-lean-on-savings/). Lingering tariff pressures are also noted as a risk factor for inflation, and inflationary pressures are building as consumers increasingly rely on their savings [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/inflation-pressures-build-as-consumers-lean-on-savings/)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026). A CPI reading that is higher than anticipated is generally considered bullish for the U.S. Dollar, while a lower-than-expected reading is typically seen as bearish for the USD [[^]](https://www.investing.com/economiccalendar/cpi-733). The Federal Reserve's primary mandate includes price stability, and inflation remains above its long-term **2%** target [[^]](https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/consumer-price-index-update-april-10-2026). The Fed's March projections indicated only one rate cut in 2026 [[^]](https://aetas-partners.com/**market**-commentary-april-2026/). Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 2026 is scheduled for release on May 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/nationalecon_cal), which will provide further insight into how energy and tariff shocks are impacting prices, with higher prices potentially being passed on to consumers [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/inflation-pressures-build-as-consumers-lean-on-savings/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 11, 2026
- **Closes:** May 12, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026, measuring year-over-year (YoY) inflation, is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
- (ET) by the U.S.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics [^] [^] [^] .
- For context, the all-items CPI for the 12 months ending March 2026 increased by **3.3%** [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] , a notable increase from the **2.4%** rate observed in February 2026 [^] .

## Related Research Reports

- [China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030/)
- [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price/)
- [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/)
- [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T4.0: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.9: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.8: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.7: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.6: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/economics/inflation/inflation-in-apr-2026-cpi-yoy
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.