# Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY) In Mar 2026 Updated: March 20, 2026 Category: Economics Tags: Inflation HTML: /markets/economics/inflation/inflation-in-mar-2026-cpi-yoy/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Above **1.8%** at **99.5%** **model** vs **73.0%** **market**, suggesting strong **confidence** that inflation in March 2026 (CPI YoY) will exceed **1.8%**. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - High-frequency rent data indicates a slowing disinflation rate for February 2026.** - Used vehicle prices remained strong despite the March 2026 oil shock. - High-frequency labor data suggests slowing wage growth and supercore inflation. - Upcoming March 2026 CPI YoY release on April 10 is a pivotal catalyst. - March CPI data will influence Federal Reserve interest rate policy decisions. - **Market** sentiment regarding March 2026 inflation expectations has sharply declined. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.5%** **probability** is 26.5pp above the 73c **market**, possibly due to slowing disinflation and strong used vehicle prices. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 73.0% | 99.5% | Model higher by 26.5pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.5% (Yes) - Market Probability: 73.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +26.5pp - Expected Return: +36.3% - R-Score: 2.65 - Total Volume: $575,935 - 24h Volume: $21,697 - Open Interest: $324,133 - Expiration: April 10, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market, which will resolve based on whether the March 2026 year-over-year CPI is above 1.8%, has experienced a significant downward trend, indicating waning confidence in a high inflation outcome. The market began with a very high probability of "YES" at 95.0%, even reaching 99.0%, suggesting near certainty that inflation would exceed the threshold. However, a major price movement occurred on March 17, when the probability dropped 26 percentage points from 99.0% to its current level of 73.0%. This sharp decline establishes 73.0% as a new key price level, a significant shift from the previous highs which acted as a ceiling of conviction. The primary catalyst for the dramatic price drop on March 17 was external economic data. According to the provided context, the release of Canada's CPI data on the preceding day showed an unexpected decline to 1.8% year-over-year. Traders in this market likely interpreted the cooling inflation in a closely related economy as a leading indicator for the United States, causing them to rapidly reassess the probability of US CPI also falling closer to the 1.8% threshold. The total trading volume of 442 contracts suggests active participation and that this new information was traded on with conviction. Overall, the chart illustrates a clear shift in market sentiment from near-certainty to tempered confidence. While the current price of 73.0% still implies that inflation is more likely than not to resolve above 1.8%, the market is now pricing in a substantial and newly introduced element of doubt. The sentiment has moved from a stable, high-conviction state to a more volatile one, awaiting the official data release on April 10. The market's reaction to the Canadian data highlights its sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators that could foreshadow the official US CPI figure. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 March 17, 2026: 26.0pp drop Price decreased from 99.0% to 73.0% **Outcome:** Above 1.8% **What happened:** The primary driver for the prediction market price drop was likely the release of Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on March 16, 2026, which showed a decline to 1.8% year-over-year in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-eases-18-base-year-effect-2026-03-16/). This unexpected drop in a closely linked economy, reaching the exact 1.8% threshold mentioned in the prediction market outcome, prompted traders to significantly reassess the probability of US inflation staying "Above 1.8%" for March 2026. There is no evidence of specific social media activity or viral narratives causing this 26.0 percentage point price movement on March 17 [Web research]. Social media was therefore largely irrelevant to this market event. #### 📉 March 13, 2026: 34.0pp drop Price decreased from 95.0% to 61.0% **Outcome:** Above 1.8% **What happened:** The claimed 34.0 percentage point drop in the "Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY) Above 1.8%" prediction market on March 13, 2026, is not supported by available information. March 2026 CPI data was not scheduled for release until April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/04_sched_list.htm). On March 13, 2026, economic news included January core PCE at 3.1% and expectations for an "Iran war oil shock" to raise March CPI, which would typically increase, not decrease, the probability of inflation above 1.8% [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-down-to-just-0point7percent-growth-january-core-inflation-was-3point1percent.html), [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-inflation-gauge-worsened-january-124149359.html), [[^]](https://today.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-spending-core-pce-inflation-firmer-january-2026-03-13/). No social media activity or traditional news was found to cause such a contradictory price movement [Web research]. Therefore, social media was (d) irrelevant, as the described market movement appears unsubstantiated. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending March 2026, as a one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Trading opens on March 10, 2026, closes on April 10, 2026, with projected payouts on April 10, 2026. A federal government shutdown causing data delays will extend the market's expiration date. ## Market Discussion Traders generally anticipate a higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year for March 2026, with the "Above 3.2%" market currently priced at 80% Yes. Key arguments for "Yes" include beliefs that inflation will be "hot" and serve as a hedge against potential stock market losses, with one trader even suggesting a 99% probability of exceeding 2.8%. There are no explicit arguments for "No" presented in the discussion. ## What Was March 2026 Gasoline Price Increase and CPI Impact? Gasoline Price Increase | Approximately 30% (late Feb/early Mar to Mar 19) [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/03/) | National Average Gasoline Price | $3.884 (March 19, 2026) [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/03/) | Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast | 2.87% year-over-year (as of March 17, 2026) [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) | **March 2026 gasoline CPI data is not yet officially available** March 2026 gasoline CPI data is not yet officially available. The precise month-over-month percentage increase for the gasoline index component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) around April 10, 2026. However, daily AAA data and weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports indicate a significant surge in gasoline prices during March. AAA reported national average regular gasoline prices climbing from approximately **$2.98** in late February/early March to **$3.884** by March 19, representing an increase of approximately **30%** [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/03/). The EIA also confirmed rising retail gasoline prices, reaching **$3.720** for the week ending March 16 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/). This substantial increase strongly suggests a large positive month-over-month change in the gasoline CPI component, likely in the range of 20-**30%** or more. Gasoline price surge may exceed Cleveland Fed's Nowcast. Comparing this implied surge in gasoline prices to the Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcast reveals a potential discrepancy. The Cleveland Fed's overall CPI Nowcast, as of March 17, 2026, stands at **2.87%** year-over-year [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting). The underlying energy price assumptions within this Nowcast appear to embed lower figures that do not yet fully account for the rapid and significant gasoline price increases observed throughout March. Consequently, the substantial real-time increase in gasoline prices, likely translating to a 20-**30%**+ month-over-month rise in the gasoline CPI component, is considerably higher than what would typically be factored into a broader CPI projection, suggesting the energy component of the Nowcast may be underestimating the full impact of March's gasoline inflation. ## What Do February 2026 High-Frequency Rent Reports Indicate? ZORI Monthly Increase | +0.4% (February 2026 [[^]](https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2026-03-04-Zillows-February-Market-Report-points-to-spring-rebound), [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zillows-february-market-report-points-to-spring-rebound-302703510.html)) | Apartment List Monthly Increase | +0.2% (February 2026 [[^]](https://realestateinvestingtoday.com/apartment-lists-national-rent-report-march-2026/), [[^]](https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data)) | Q4 2025 Monthly Rent Trend | -0.1% to -0.2% (Web Research Results) [[^]](https://investors.zillowgroup.com/investors/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/New-apartment-supply-and-rise-of-accidental-landlords-help-cool-rent-growth-nationwide/default.aspx) | **High-frequency rent indices for February 2026 suggest a slowing disinflation rate** High-frequency rent indices for February 2026 suggest a slowing disinflation rate. Data released in March 2026, reflecting February 2026 figures (as specific high-frequency rent data for March 2026 is not yet available), indicates a slower rate of disinflation compared to the -**0.1%** to -**0.2%** monthly trend observed in Q4 2025. Zillow's Observed Rent Index (ZORI) reported a +**0.4%** month-over-month increase [[^]](https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2026-03-04-Zillows-February-**Market**-Report-points-to-spring-rebound), [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zillows-february-**market**-report-points-to-spring-rebound-302703510.html), while Apartment List showed a +**0.2%** monthly rise [[^]](https://realestateinvestingtoday.com/apartment-lists-national-rent-report-march-2026/), [[^]](https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data). These positive rent increases reverse a prior disinflationary trend. The positive monthly rent increases from both Zillow (+**0.4%**) and Apartment List (+**0.2%**) for February 2026 represent a significant change from the earlier disinflationary pattern. This suggests that the disinflation rate for the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) and Rent of Primary Residence components of inflation is decelerating. These increases are occurring amidst a seasonal upturn and ongoing supply pressures [[^]](https://investors.zillowgroup.com/investors/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/New-apartment-supply-and-rise-of-accidental-landlords-help-cool-rent-growth-nationwide/default.aspx), [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-apartment-supply-and-rise-of-accidental-landlords-help-cool-rent-growth-nationwide-302718272.html), potentially implying upward pressure on these inflation components in the forthcoming March CPI report. ## Did Used Vehicle Prices Drop After the 2026 Oil Shock? MUVVI (mid-March 2026) | 213.4 [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-mid-march-2026-trends/) | MUVVI Year-over-Year Increase | 5.3% [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-mid-march-2026-trends/) | Oil Supply Disruption | 8 million barrels per day (bpd) [[^]](http://today.reuters.com/business/energy/world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-middle-east-war-iea-says-2026-03-12/) | **Used vehicle prices remained strong despite the March 2026 oil shock** Used vehicle prices remained strong despite the March 2026 oil shock. Spot prices for used cars and trucks, as tracked by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), demonstrated resilience and continued strength through mid-March 2026. The MUVVI's mid-March update reported an index value of 213.4, representing a **0.5%** increase from February and a substantial **5.3%** rise year-over-year [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-mid-march-2026-trends/). This performance exceeded typical seasonal norms, primarily driven by a combination of tight supply and robust dealer demand, with wholesale prices continuing to climb through early March [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-mid-march-2026-trends/). The oil shock did not lead to a used vehicle price decline. The significant oil shock, stemming from the Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, caused considerable **market** disruptions, including oil supply shortfalls of 8 million barrels per day and crude prices soaring above **$100** per barrel [[^]](http://today.reuters.com/business/energy/world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-middle-east-war-iea-says-2026-03-12/). Despite these elevated energy costs, no discernible price drop in used vehicles is evident in the MUVVI data for mid-March [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-mid-march-2026-trends/). While potential future dampening effects on demand due to higher gasoline prices have been mentioned, current data clearly indicates this has not materialized as of mid-March. Used vehicle price increases are adding to, not offsetting, inflation. Consequently, an unexpected decline in used vehicle prices has not occurred. Instead, the observed increase in used car and truck prices, as reflected by the MUVVI, is contributing to inflationary pressures rather than offsetting the energy-driven inflation from the oil shock for the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI). ## Are High-Frequency Labor Indicators Slowing the Labor Market? Homebase Yo Y Wage Growth (Feb 2026) | 5.9% (down from 8.3% in Feb 2025) [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news) | Initial Jobless Claims (week ending March 14, 2026) | 205,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) | BLS Job Change (Feb 2026) | Lost 92,000 jobs [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html) | **High-frequency labor indicators suggest a slowdown in wage growth and supercore inflation** High-frequency labor indicators suggest a slowdown in wage growth and supercore inflation. Data from Homebase's 'Main Street Health Report' for February 2026 revealed that year-over-year wage growth for hourly small business workers was **5.9%** [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news). This figure marks the lowest growth recorded in several years and represents a significant decrease from **8.3%** in February 2025 [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news). This trend, combined with lower hiring rates and reduced turnover within the small business sector, supports the notion of easing wage pressures [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news). Such developments could potentially lead to a decrease in 'supercore' inflation (Services ex-housing), a metric highly responsive to wage dynamics within the service sector [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news). Jobless claims and the BLS report confirm a moderating, 'low-hire, low-fire' labor **market**. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14, 2026, decreased to 205,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf). While indicating a low level of layoffs, these figures suggest an environment characterized by 'low-hire, low-fire' rather than robust expansion of the labor **market** [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-558ca46a75fc624f9fc15c3f50fc8b2c). This aligns with the February 2026 BLS jobs report, which notably indicated a loss of 92,000 jobs and an annual wage growth rate of **3.8%** [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html). Collectively, these high-frequency indicators point towards moderating wage pressures and a cooling labor **market**, potentially resulting in a lower supercore inflation reading and influencing the March CPI year-over-year prediction **market** [[^]](https://www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-business-economy-news). ## What Is the Impact of March PPI and Import Prices on CPI? March 2026 PPI/Import Price Forecasts | No consensus available (as of March 20, 2026) [Web Research Results] [[^]](https://www.forecasts.org/ppi.htm) | March PPI Model Forecast (MoM) | +0.2% (index at 264.1) [Web Research Results, 1] [[^]](https://www.forecasts.org/ppi.htm) | CPI Forecast Revision Potential | +0.05-0.1% upward revision to CPI forecasts [Web Research Results] [[^]](https://www.forecasts.org/ppi.htm) | **Consensus forecasts for March 2026 PPI and Import Price Index are currently unavailable** Consensus forecasts for March 2026 PPI and Import Price Index are currently unavailable. These economic reports are scheduled for release after the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is due on April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/april-10-cpi-decision-0-5-inflation-gap-consensus-reality-close-cleveland-fed-nowcasts-suggest-march-cpi-surpass-2-8-major-force-policy-reassessment-2603/). Specifically, the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes summary for March 2026 is scheduled for April 11, 2026 [[^]](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm), and the Producer Price Index schedule indicates its release on April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm). While a general consensus is absent, one **model** forecasts the March PPI index at 264.1, an increase from February's 263.7, which implies an approximate **0.2%** month-over-month (MoM) rise [[^]](https://www.forecasts.org/ppi.htm). A **0.2%** deviation in PPI or Import Price Index affects CPI forecasts. Should either the PPI or Import Price Index report a +**0.2%** MoM increase, surpassing an assumed **0%** consensus, it would likely prompt approximately 0.05-**0.1%** upward revisions to economists' pre-release CPI forecasts. This type of deviation would exert upward pressure on the "Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY)" prediction **market**, potentially pushing year-over-year CPI odds above the current **2.4%** consensus. Historically, surprises in these figures, such as the February 2026 PPI's +**0.7%** MoM rise compared to a +**0.3%** consensus, have resulted in more hawkish revisions to inflation estimates (including PCE and CPI) and influenced expectations for future interest rate policy [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/ppi-inflation-february-2026.html). ## What Could Change the Odds **The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (YoY) for March 2026, scheduled for release on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, stands as a pivotal market catalyst [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/inflation-in-mar-2026-cpi-yoy-apr-10-2026/).** This data point is crucial as it could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding interest rate cuts, which are widely anticipated by investors [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/april-10-cpi-decision-0-5-inflation-gap-consensus-reality-close-cleveland-fed-nowcasts-suggest-march-cpi-surpass-2-8-major-force-policy-reassessment-2603/). While the pre-energy shock Reuters poll indicated a consensus forecast of approximately **2.4%** YoY, the Cleveland Fed's nowcast as of mid-March projects a higher **2.87%** YoY increase [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). This elevated forecast is attributed to a 0.4 percentage point surge in energy prices, along with other data adjustments [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/04_sched_list.htm). Prediction markets, such as Robinhood, reflect a high **probability** (>**95%**) that the CPI will be above 1.8-**2.0%**, with implied expectations around a **2.6%** mean [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting). The **market** reaction will largely depend on the actual CPI print [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-report-february-2026.html). A hotter-than-expected CPI, particularly above **2.8%**, could pressure the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, potentially leading to a short-term boost in yields and stocks as a result of delayed easing [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy). Conversely, an in-line or softer print, around the **2.4%** consensus, would likely enable the Fed to proceed with anticipated rate cuts, which could rally bond markets and support broader risk assets [[^]](https://www.mufgresearch.com/macro/us-inflation-update-march-10-2026/). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** July 10, 2026 - **Closes:** April 10, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (YoY) for March 2026, scheduled for release on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, stands as a pivotal **market** catalyst [^] . - This data point is crucial as it could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding interest rate cuts, which are widely anticipated by investors [^] . - While the pre-energy shock Reuters poll indicated a consensus forecast of approximately **2.4%** YoY, the Cleveland Fed's nowcast as of mid-March projects a higher **2.87%** YoY increase [^] . - This elevated forecast is attributed to a 0.4 percentage point surge in energy prices, along with other data adjustments [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030/) - [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price/) - [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/) - [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXCPIYOY-26FEB-T2.2: YES (Mar 11, 2026) - KXCPIYOY-26FEB-T2.3: YES (Mar 11, 2026) - KXCPIYOY-26JAN-T2.1: YES (Feb 13, 2026) - KXCPIYOY-26JAN-T2.2: YES (Feb 13, 2026) - KXCPIYOY-26JAN-T2.3: YES (Feb 13, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/economics/inflation/inflation-in-mar-2026-cpi-yoy If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.