# PPI YoY in September

September 2026

Updated: September 13, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Inflation

HTML: /markets/economics/inflation/ppi-yoy-in-september/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Producer Price Index year-over-year for September 2026 is likely to be above **5.3%**, following August's **5.4%** increase and amid persistent inflationary pressures, priced by the **market** at **96.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - PPI YoY in September likely stays above 5.3%, mirroring August's 5.4% baseline.** - A strong surge above **5.6%** is less probable; September energy trends are mixed.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

The August 2026 PPI's **5.4%** year-over-year increase, fueled by an energy rebound, establishes an elevated baseline for September, with the **market** at **96%**.

This market's price trajectory is overwhelmingly a reaction to a single data release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose 5.4% year-over-year was the sole driver of the price movement. This figure, reported to have exceeded market expectations, prompted traders to sharply increase the probability of a high PPI reading for the following month.

The market repriced in two distinct phases based on this news. An initial 28-point spike occurred on September 10, the day of the release. This was followed by a larger 44-point spike two days later on September 12, suggesting a delayed or secondary wave of reaction to the inflation data. Trading volume of 250 contracts on September 11, situated between the two price jumps, indicates conviction behind the market's initial upward move.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 5.6% | 70.0% | 59.7% | Mixed September energy trends and lacking new drivers suggest less PPI acceleration beyond August. |
| Above 5.3% | 96.0% | 94.9% | August's 5.4% PPI rise, driven by energy, establishes a high baseline for September figures. |
| Above 5.8% | 23.0% | 17.7% | Mixed September energy trends and lacking new drivers suggest less PPI acceleration beyond August. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 5.6% | 70.0% | 59.7% |
| Above 5.3% | 96.0% | 94.9% |
| Above 5.8% | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| Above 5.5% | 87.0% | 84.7% |
| Above 4.7% | 91.0% | 95.5% |
| Above 5.7% | 59.0% | 48.2% |
| Above 5.4% | 95.0% | 94.0% |
| Above 5.0% | 87.0% | 95.2% |
| Above 4.8% | 93.0% | 95.4% |
| Above 4.9% | 91.0% | 95.3% |
| Above 5.2% | 86.0% | 95.0% |
| Above 5.1% | 84.0% | 95.1% |
| Above 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Above 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Above 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Above 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% |

- Expiration: October 15, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 5.5%

#### 📈 September 12, 2026: 71.0pp spike

Price increased from 16.0% to 87.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 71.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year [[^]](https://nchstats.com/august-2026-ppi-report/). This official data release immediately preceded market commentators reporting a surge in the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike to approximately 71.4% for the September 15–16, 2026 meeting [[^]](https://theotrade.com/rate-hike-oil-inflation-risk/). This significant increase in expected monetary tightening due to inflation concerns appears to have driven the prediction market's price movement, which coincided with and lagged slightly behind the economic data and subsequent market analysis. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant in this instance, as no relevant activity was found.

### Outcome: Above 5.4%

#### 📈 September 11, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 65.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the prediction market's 63.0 percentage point spike was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement on September 10, 2026, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026 rose 5.4% year-over-year [[^]](https://qz.com/ppi-wholesale-inflation-august-2026-091026)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm). This official data release, which reported a significant monthly spike in diesel fuel and an annualized rate for energy producer prices reaching a 63% increase, dramatically heightened expectations for the subsequent September PPI to exceed 5.4% [[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/ppi-shows-surging-inflation-across-prices-that-companies-pay-each-other-the-fed-should-stop-dilly-dallying-around/)[[^]](https://stockscreener.finance/en/news/rate-hike-odds-spike-as-fuel-costs-push-us-producer-prices-higher/). The market movement on September 11, 2026, occurred the day after the August PPI report, indicating traditional news *led* the adjustment. No evidence of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives driving this prediction market movement was found in the provided research.

### Outcome: Above 5.3%

#### 📈 September 10, 2026: 28.0pp spike

Price increased from 24.0% to 52.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the official release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026 on September 10, 2026 [[^]](https://investinglive.com/news/us-august-ppi-5-4-vs-5-3-expected/). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI for final demand increased by 5.4% year-over-year, which exceeded the market expectation of 5.3% [[^]](https://investinglive.com/news/us-august-ppi-5-4-vs-5-3-expected/). This data directly supported the "Above 5.3%" outcome, prompting an increase in its probability. There is no evidence of a 28.0 percentage point spike specifically associated with this market or event in the provided research, as the reported PPI increase was 5.4% [[^]](https://www.frenzycap.com/predictions/polymarket/0x5600ca59c6fa9edadd636366ec55ae82f11a18710029ca1cbeae4b7d72eaf8a9). Social media activity was irrelevant, as no posts from key figures or viral narratives were found in the research.

## Contract Snapshot

A YES contract resolves if the Producer Price Index (PPI) Year-over-Year (YoY) for September is above the specified percentage (e.g., 5.7%), while a NO contract resolves if the PPI YoY for September is at or below that percentage. The market begins on October 15, 7:30am EDT, and the maximum payout date is October 15, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are mentioned.

## Market Discussion

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August 2026, released on September 10, 2026, showed a 5.4% year-over-year increase, which was higher than expectations and attributed primarily to geopolitical supply shocks affecting energy costs [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html). Prediction markets reflect high conviction in elevated inflationary prints for the September 2026 PPI [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15). The official September 2026 PPI data is scheduled for publication on October 15, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 4.7% | 91% | 98% | 91% | 398 contracts | 200 contracts |
| Above 4.8% | 88% | 98% | 93% | 29 contracts | 29 contracts |
| Above 4.9% | 76% | 98% | 91% | 27 contracts | 19 contracts |
| Above 5.0% | 76% | 97% | 87% | 188 contracts | 188 contracts |
| Above 5.1% | 85% | 98% | 84% | 10 contracts | 10 contracts |
| Above 5.2% | 81% | 98% | 86% | 19 contracts | 14 contracts |
| Above 5.3% | 75% | 98% | 96% | 633 contracts | 605 contracts |
| Above 5.4% | 75% | 96% | 95% | 234 contracts | 234 contracts |
| Above 5.5% | 75% | 87% | 87% | 400 contracts | 300 contracts |
| Above 5.6% | 69% | 88% | 70% | 700 contracts | 550 contracts |
| Above 5.7% | 42% | 73% | 59% | 249 contracts | 132 contracts |
| Above 5.8% | 24% | 27% | 23% | 528 contracts | 238 contracts |
| Above 5.9% | 4% | 24% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 6.0% | 4% | 24% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 6.1% | 3% | 19% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 6.2% | 3% | 16% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |

## How could the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the September 2026 FOMC meeting influence producer pricing behavior for the remainder of the month?

Expected Fed Interest Rate Decision | September 16, 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) |
Market Probability of Rate Increase | 25 basis point increase [[^]](https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/economy/will-us-fed-hike-interest-rates-september)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15) |
Producer Price Response Speed | Relatively slow and persistent adjustment [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2006/mp_nov06/Giannoni_bgm_061110.pdf)[[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2021/wp-2117-the-real-effects-of-monetary-shocks-pdf.pdf)[[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/2020/inflations-drivers-and-dynamics/matthias-meier-paper.pdf)[[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/how-do-firms-adjust-prices-in-a-high-inflation-environment/) |

**The Federal Reserve's September 2026 interest rate decision anticipates a hike**

The Federal Reserve's September 2026 interest rate decision anticipates a hike. The decision, expected on September 16, 2026, is poised to influence producer pricing primarily by altering the cost of capital for businesses and adjusting broader inflation expectations [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[[^]](https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/september-2026/)[[^]](https://zforex.com/blog/general-trading/what-is-the-fomc-meeting-schedule/)[[^]](https://www.chicagofed.org/utilities/about-us/federal-reserve-calendars)[[^]](https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1659/Implications_of_Structural_Changes_in_the_U.S._Economy_for_Pricing_Behavior_and_Inflat.pdf)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734). Current **market** sentiment suggests a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate increase at this meeting [[^]](https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/economy/will-us-fed-hike-interest-rates-september)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15). Historically, elevated interest rates tend to exert sustained pressure on overall economic activity [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p2RkyqNFPA).

Producer prices show slow adjustment despite monetary policy changes. While shifts in interest rates do affect aggregate demand and marginal costs, thereby influencing firms' pricing strategies and the pass-through of costs to prices, producer prices typically demonstrate a slow and persistent pattern of adjustment [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2023/wp2314.pdf)[[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/how-do-firms-adjust-prices-in-a-high-inflation-environment/). Analysis of disaggregated Producer Price Index (PPI) components reveals minimal immediate movement following a monetary policy shock [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2006/mp_nov06/Giannoni_bgm_061110.pdf)[[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2021/wp-2117-the-real-effects-of-monetary-shocks-pdf.pdf)[[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/2020/inflations-drivers-and-dynamics/matthias-meier-paper.pdf)[[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/how-do-firms-adjust-prices-in-a-high-inflation-environment/). Furthermore, firms' pricing decisions are also significantly shaped by factors beyond monetary policy, such as the strength of demand, labor and non-labor costs, competitive **market** pressures, and internal profit margin targets [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2023/wp2314.pdf).

## What are the September 2026 YoY PPI forecasts from major institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and PNC Economics?

Major Bank Sep 2026 YoY PPI Forecast | Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and PNC Economics have not publicly released specific numerical forecasts [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/wealth-management/mid-year-outlook-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/outlook/predictions-and-forecasts)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy)[[^]](https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/neoandrounduparchives/PNC_Economics_Research_Weekly_Economic_Roundup_08_September_2026.pdf) |
Kalshi Sep 2026 YoY PPI Probability | 90% implied probability of exceeding 4.7% [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15) |
Unofficial August 2026 PPI Reports | Social media reports of 5.4% YoY are unverified [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/LikeNews13/posts/the-labor-departments-producer-price-index-which-captures-inflation-before-it-re/1498400022325609/)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/brijnandan.dubey.7/posts/breaking-august-ppi-inflation-rises-to-54-above-expectations-of-53core-ppi-infla/5444082825816997/) |

**Major institutions have not released September 2026 YoY PPI forecasts**

Major institutions have not released September 2026 YoY PPI forecasts. As of September 13, 2026, leading financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and PNC Economics, have not publicly released specific year-over-year (YoY) Producer Price Index (PPI) numerical forecasts for September 2026 [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/wealth-management/mid-year-outlook-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/outlook/predictions-and-forecasts)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy). While PNC Economics did publish a Weekly Economic Roundup on September 8, 2026, this report primarily discussed August data and noted the uncertainty regarding the translation of September PPI and CPI figures into core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), but did not provide a precise numerical forecast for September 2026 YoY PPI [[^]](https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/neoandrounduparchives/PNC_Economics_Research_Weekly_Economic_Roundup_08_September_2026.pdf).

Prediction markets and unverified reports offer some September 2026 indicators. In the absence of specific institutional forecasts, the Kalshi prediction **market** for the September 2026 YoY Producer Price Index suggests a **90%** implied **probability** that the final figure will exceed **4.7%** [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15). It is also important to note that circulating reports on social media suggesting August 2026 PPI rose to **5.4%** YoY are not official Bureau of Labor Statistics releases nor verified institutional forecasts for September [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/LikeNews13/posts/the-labor-departments-producer-price-index-which-captures-inflation-before-it-re/1498400022325609/)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/brijnandan.dubey.7/posts/breaking-august-ppi-inflation-rises-to-54-above-expectations-of-53core-ppi-infla/5444082825816997/).

## How do consensus estimates for September 2026's Producer Price Index (PPI) compare with the forecasts for the September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

Probability of US PPI YoY > 4.7% (Sept 2026) | 90% (as of September 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15) |
Headline CPI (August 2026) | 3.4% YoY (released September 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html) |
Core CPI (August 2026) | 2.4% YoY (released September 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html) |

**Major market data sources do not yet show widespread consensus estimates for the September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) as of September 13, 2026, since these estimates typically become available closer to the official release dates [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/636571), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/636837)**

Major **market** data sources do not yet show widespread consensus estimates for the September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) as of September 13, 2026, since these estimates typically become available closer to the official release dates [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/636571), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/636837). However, specific prediction **market** data offers an early indication. As of September 11, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi suggest a **90%** **probability** that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year change for September 2026 will exceed **4.7%** [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15). For context, the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on September 11, 2026, showed headline CPI at **3.4%** year-over-year and core CPI at **2.4%** year-over-year [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html).

Elevated PPI levels are a concern for future consumer inflation trends. Current year-over-year CPI figures remain notably lower than current PPI year-over-year levels, which stood at **4.7%** as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html), [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/cpi-can-make-or-break-the-feds-holding-pattern/). Analysts are expressing concern that elevated PPI, influenced by factors such as energy prices and tariffs, could hinder the progress of core CPI and potentially lead to a re-acceleration of consumer inflation [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/cpi-can-make-or-break-the-feds-holding-pattern/). The official release for the September 2026 PPI is scheduled for October 15, 2026, while the September 2026 CPI is set to be released on October 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm), [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm), [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).

## Which specific sub-components of the Producer Price Index, beyond final demand for energy and food, showed the most volatility in Q3 2026?

Fuels & Lubricants Margin Surge | 13% in June 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html) |
Processed Goods Rise | 1.8% as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html) |
September 2026 PPI YoY | 5.4% in early September [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15)[[^]](https://www.almfirst.com/resources/beyond-the-headlines/september-9-2026-headlines)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/fed-rate-hike-odds-rise-to-61-after-ppi-comes-in-hotter-than-expected/)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html) |

**Trade services and industrial inputs showed significant Q3 volatility**

Trade services and industrial inputs showed significant Q3 volatility. Notably, trade services, specifically the margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, demonstrated considerable volatility, building on a **13%** surge recorded in June 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html). Industrial inputs also exhibited volatility, with processed goods seeing an increase of **1.8%** and unprocessed goods rising by **1.1%** as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html).

Overall producer price inflation showed notable increases. The wholesale level of inflation, as measured by the Producer Price Index for August, rose by **0.4%** [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYXxy80uaA8). Furthermore, the year-over-year headline reading for the September 2026 Producer Price Index was reported at **5.4%** in early September, which surpassed consensus expectations [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15)[[^]](https://www.almfirst.com/resources/beyond-the-headlines/september-9-2026-headlines)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/fed-rate-hike-odds-rise-to-61-after-ppi-comes-in-hotter-than-expected/)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html).

## How do September 2026 energy price trends (WTI, Natural Gas) compare to the 4.2% energy price rebound that drove the August 2026 PPI increase?

August 2026 Energy Price Rebound | 4.2% (impacted August PPI increase) [[^]](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-producer-prices-boosted-by-rebound-in-energy-prices-in-august)[[^]](https://www.mdm.com/news/research/economic-trends/august-producer-prices-rise-0-4-in-august-as-energy-costs-rebound-core-ticks-up/)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/09/us-producer-prices-august-inflation/) |
WTI Crude Oil Price | Around $97/bbl (September 9, 2026) [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO) |
Natural Gas Storage | 4.8% above five-year average (early September 2026) [[^]](https://www.spragueenergy.com/october-nymex-natural-gas-futures-contract-closed-at-2-834-on-thursday-september-10th/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php) |

**The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, primarily driven by a significant 4.2% rebound in energy prices after two months of declines [[^]](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-producer-prices-boosted-by-rebound-in-energy-prices-in-august)[[^]](https://www.mdm.com/news/research/economic-trends/august-producer-prices-rise-0-4-in-august-as-energy-costs-rebound-core-ticks-up/)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/09/us-producer-prices-august-inflation/)**

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by **0.4%** month-over-month in August 2026, primarily driven by a significant **4.2%** rebound in energy prices after two months of declines [[^]](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-producer-prices-boosted-by-rebound-in-energy-prices-in-august)[[^]](https://www.mdm.com/news/research/economic-trends/august-producer-prices-rise-0-4-in-august-as-energy-costs-rebound-core-ticks-up/)[[^]](https://finance-commerce.com/2026/09/us-producer-prices-august-inflation/). This contrasted with September 2026, where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices displayed volatility, reaching around **$97** per barrel on September 9, 2026 [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO)[[^]](https://oilprice.com/futures/wti). An earlier sell-off in WTI had occurred in early August due to geopolitical events concerning the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://oilprice.com/futures/wti).

Conversely, natural gas prices in September 2026 remained relatively stable, mostly trading below **$3.00** per MMBtu [[^]](https://www.spragueenergy.com/october-nymex-natural-gas-futures-contract-closed-at-2-834-on-thursday-september-10th/). This stability was supported by robust storage levels, which in early September 2026 were **4.8%** above the five-year average [[^]](https://www.spragueenergy.com/october-nymex-natural-gas-futures-contract-closed-at-2-834-on-thursday-september-10th/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php). Lower demand forecasts also contributed to the overall stability of natural gas prices during this period [[^]](https://www.spragueenergy.com/october-nymex-natural-gas-futures-contract-closed-at-2-834-on-thursday-september-10th/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for September 2026 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.** ET [[^]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-october-2026/)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm). This will be the official release detailing producer price movements [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm).

**Prediction markets indicate significant implied probabilities favoring elevated PPI year-over-year inflation for September 2026, with levels well above 4.7% and 3.2% as of mid-September 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ppi-yoy-september-2026)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxusppiyoy-26oct15)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/forecastex/ppiy-0926-3-2).** **Market** sentiment is largely bearish regarding inflation, with analysts highlighting that elevated producer prices threaten to embed into consumer inflation (CPI) and core PCE [[^]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-october-2026/)[[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/ppi-shows-surging-inflation-across-prices-that-companies-pay-each-other-the-fed-should-stop-dilly-dallying-around/)[[^]](https://stockscreener.finance/en/news/rate-hike-odds-spike-as-fuel-costs-push-us-producer-prices-higher/)[[^]](https://www.marketframework.com/news/us-ppi-accelerates-in-august-as-oil-surge-rekindles-inflation-fears-ahead-of-cpi)[[^]](https://ecmsource.com/august-ppi-2026-hot-print-diesel-bond-yields/). This would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise interest rates [[^]](https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-october-2026/)[[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/ppi-shows-surging-inflation-across-prices-that-companies-pay-each-other-the-fed-should-stop-dilly-dallying-around/)[[^]](https://stockscreener.finance/en/news/rate-hike-odds-spike-as-fuel-costs-push-us-producer-prices-higher/)[[^]](https://www.marketframework.com/news/us-ppi-accelerates-in-august-as-oil-surge-rekindles-inflation-fears-ahead-of-cpi)[[^]](https://ecmsource.com/august-ppi-2026-hot-print-diesel-bond-yields/).

**Primary catalysts for recent producer price inflation include sharp increases in energy costs, particularly diesel fuel [[^]](https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/es/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_PPI_10_September_2026.pdf)[[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/ppi-shows-surging-inflation-across-prices-that-companies-pay-each-other-the-fed-should-stop-dilly-dallying-around/)[[^]](https://stockscreener.finance/en/news/rate-hike-odds-spike-as-fuel-costs-push-us-producer-prices-higher/)[[^]](https://www.marketframework.com/news/us-ppi-accelerates-in-august-as-oil-surge-rekindles-inflation-fears-ahead-of-cpi)[[^]](https://ecmsource.com/august-ppi-2026-hot-print-diesel-bond-yields/).** Concerns over renewed geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, and tariff policies impacting supply chains also contribute to inflationary pressures [[^]](https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/es/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_PPI_10_September_2026.pdf)[[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/ppi-shows-surging-inflation-across-prices-that-companies-pay-each-other-the-fed-should-stop-dilly-dallying-around/)[[^]](https://stockscreener.finance/en/news/rate-hike-odds-spike-as-fuel-costs-push-us-producer-prices-higher/)[[^]](https://www.marketframework.com/news/us-ppi-accelerates-in-august-as-oil-surge-rekindles-inflation-fears-ahead-of-cpi)[[^]](https://ecmsource.com/august-ppi-2026-hot-print-diesel-bond-yields/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** October 22, 2026
- **Closes:** October 15, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for September 2026 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
- ET [^] [^] [^] .
- This will be the official release detailing producer price movements [^] [^] .
- Prediction markets indicate significant implied probabilities favoring elevated PPI year-over-year inflation for September 2026, with levels well above **4.7%** and **3.2%** as of mid-September 2026 [^] [^] [^] .

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- [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/)
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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 18 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.5: NO (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.4: NO (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.3: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.2: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXUSPPIYOY-26SEP10-T5.1: YES (Sep 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

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**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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