# Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

For the 2028 election

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: 2028
US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Gavin Newsom is most likely to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Newsom and Harris face potential challenges, potentially aiding a Pritzker self-funded campaign.** - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez targets progressives; Josh Shapiro appeals to moderates and donors.
- The DNC established a 2028 primary calendar timeline; new early states may impact the race.
- Whitmer showed bipartisan appeal; she or Moore may target Midwest blue wall voters.
- No formal Democratic candidates announced as of May 8, 2026.
- No explicit H2 2026 data supports Newsom's predicted frontrunner status.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 69c, the **market** implies a higher **probability** than the **59.7%** **model** estimate, amidst varying Newsom leads over Harris.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kamala Harris | 63.0% | 40.5% | As current Vice President, she is a natural frontrunner for the party's nomination. |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 49.0% | 26.0% | Her progressive platform and national profile may attract significant support. |
| Wes Moore | 47.0% | 32.3% | The Maryland Governor is seen as a rising star within the Democratic party. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Kamala Harris | 63.0% | 40.5% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 49.0% | 26.0% |
| Wes Moore | 47.0% | 32.3% |
| Tim Walz | 12.0% | 5.1% |
| Gavin Newsom | 87.0% | 82.9% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Ruben Gallego | 57.0% | 45.3% |
| Ro Khanna | 67.0% | 57.2% |
| Mark Kelly | 68.0% | 58.5% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 72.0% | 63.5% |
| Abigail Spanberger | 33.0% | 20.4% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 61.0% | 50.0% |
| Jon Stewart | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Jon Ossoff | 43.0% | 30.0% |
| Hunter Biden | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Mark Cuban | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 84.0% | 78.9% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 80.0% | 73.7% |
| Michelle Obama | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Roy Cooper | 25.0% | 13.7% |
| Josh Shapiro | 79.0% | 72.4% |
| Cory Booker | 69.0% | 59.7% |
| Elissa Slotkin | 50.0% | 37.4% |
| Dean Phillips | 28.0% | 16.1% |
| Andy Beshear | 80.0% | 73.7% |
| Jared Polis | 54.0% | 41.8% |
| Raphael Warnock | 31.0% | 18.6% |
| John Fetterman | 23.0% | 12.2% |
| Chris Van Hollen | 29.0% | 17.0% |
| Phil Murphy | 29.0% | 17.0% |
| Chris Murphy | 68.0% | 58.5% |
| Hillary Clinton | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Mikie Sherrill | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| Barack Obama | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Mitch Landrieu | 62.0% | 51.2% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trend, with its price confined to a narrow 4-point range between 65.0% and 69.0%. The current price of 69.0% is at the top of this range, which has acted as a resistance level, while the 65.0% mark has served as support. The price began at 68.0% and has shown minimal net change over the observed period, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The chart does not show any significant price spikes or drops that would correspond to the provided context, such as the April 10 statement from Kamala Harris; the market's price remained stable for weeks following that development.

Trading volume has been extremely low throughout the period, with only 64 contracts traded in total and several days registering no volume at all. This pattern of low liquidity suggests that there is little active participation or strong conviction among traders regarding the current price. The price levels have not been validated by significant trading activity, which can sometimes indicate that the market is waiting for a more definitive catalyst. The minor price increase from 68.0% to 69.0% in early May occurred on very low volume, reducing the significance of the move.

Overall, the price action suggests that market sentiment is stable and has priced in a consistently high probability for this outcome, hovering in the high 60s. The combination of a tight trading range and minimal volume implies that the market is in a state of equilibrium, with current information largely accounted for. While the price is testing the high end of its range, the lack of accompanying volume suggests traders are not aggressively pushing the price higher, but rather are in a "wait-and-see" mode.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Democratic U.S. presidential nomination before January 1, 2028, based on reports from specified news sources (including The New York Times, AP, Reuters, Politico, and others). If no such announcement occurs by this date, the market resolves to No. The market opened on March 22, 2025, and will close early if the event happens, or by January 1, 2028, 10:00 AM EST if it does not. Employees of the listed source agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.

## Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing several potential Democratic nominees for 2028, with significant debate surrounding Kamala Harris's potential bid. Arguments for her running include calls for her to take the lead, while arguments against point to past electoral results, perceived hesitation, and the idea that the party needs a 'hard reset.' Other candidates like Wes Moore and Jon Ossoff are also endorsed by some traders, highlighting a varied outlook on the upcoming nomination race.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Andy Beshear | 78% | 81% | 80% | $5,209.68 | $2,809.91 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 49% | 51% | 49% | $67,800.43 | $30,072.91 |
| Abigail Spanberger | 36% | 39% | 33% | $13,395.91 | $9,087.99 |
| Barack Obama | 1.1% | 4.9% | 1.1% | $572.03 | $504 |
| Cory Booker | 66% | 69% | 69% | $6,184.76 | $5,248.76 |
| Chris Van Hollen | 24% | 30% | 29% | $2,429.48 | $2,305.48 |
| Chris Murphy | 67% | 72% | 68% | $1,160.43 | $748.43 |
| Dean Phillips | 22% | 27% | 28% | $5,459.52 | $702 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 47% | 52% | 50% | $6,138.74 | $4,719.79 |
| Gavin Newsom | 86% | 87% | 87% | $31,909.72 | $13,774.71 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 64% | 67% | 61% | $13,268.15 | $4,828.32 |
| Hunter Biden | 9.9% | 13% | 11% | $10,820.37 | $5,445.37 |
| Hillary Clinton | 2% | 5% | 5.6% | $1,023.6 | $938.6 |
| John Fetterman | 24% | 28% | 23% | $2,721 | $2,155 |
| Jon Ossoff | 42% | 43% | 43% | $10,840.28 | $7,261.24 |
| Jared Polis | 50% | 55% | 54% | $4,408.74 | $3,706.51 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 79% | 80% | 80% | $7,268.16 | $2,772.16 |
| Josh Shapiro | 78% | 83% | 79% | $6,379 | $2,680 |
| Jon Stewart | 19% | 20% | 20% | $11,495.35 | $9,173.58 |
| Kamala Harris | 63% | 66% | 63% | $82,931.9 | $22,415.82 |
| Mark Cuban | 19% | 24% | 21% | $10,722.83 | $4,658.94 |
| Mark Kelly | 65% | 68% | 68% | $15,321.38 | $9,855.21 |
| Mitch Landrieu | 62% | 69% | 62% | $15 | $5 |
| Michelle Obama | 7% | 11% | 7% | $7,014.22 | $6,297.04 |
| Mikie Sherrill | 18% | 23% | 19% | $899.89 | $716.89 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 81% | 84% | 84% | $7,454.84 | $3,218.84 |
| Phil Murphy | 30% | 34% | 29% | $1,492 | $1,199 |
| Roy Cooper | 24% | 27% | 25% | $6,806.33 | $1,976 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 72% | 75% | 72% | $15,007.21 | $10,603.77 |
| Ruben Gallego | 55% | 59% | 57% | $24,143.35 | $5,507.35 |
| Ro Khanna | 66% | 68% | 67% | $17,094.15 | $4,182.07 |
| Raphael Warnock | 31% | 33% | 31% | $3,943.64 | $2,421.64 |
| Stephen A. Smith | 23% | 28% | 24% | $27,270.88 | $13,944.66 |
| Tim Walz | 7% | 12% | 12% | $37,766.67 | $4,183 |
| Wes Moore | 48% | 50% | 47% | $53,039.93 | $20,324.17 |

## What fundraising and polling data from H2 2026 supports Gavin Newsom's current frontrunner status over Kamala Harris in 2028 prediction markets?

Gavin Newsom Polymarket Implied Probability | 27% [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/polymarket/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028) |
Kamala Harris Polymarket Implied Probability | 6-8% [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/polymarket/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028) |
Gavin Newsom UC Berkeley Poll (March 2026) | 28% [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/4489301/newsom-twice-support-harris-2028-presidential-primary-poll/)[[^]](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/12/newsom-opens-commanding-lead-over-harris-in-2028-california-primary-poll-00824633) |

**No explicit H2 2026 fundraising or polling data is available from the provided sources to substantiate Gavin Newsom's predicted frontrunner status over Kamala Harris for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination [[^]](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-02-25/gavin-newsom-kamala-harris-2028-democrats-presidential-campaign)[[^]](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/05/newsom-fundraising-digital-harris-campaign-00187396)[[^]](https://dv.fppc.ca.gov/Detail?Name=Newsom%2C+Gavin&Year=2025)**

No explicit H2 2026 fundraising or polling data is available from the provided sources to substantiate Gavin Newsom's predicted frontrunner status over Kamala Harris for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination [[^]](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-02-25/gavin-newsom-kamala-harris-2028-democrats-presidential-campaign)[[^]](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/05/newsom-fundraising-digital-harris-campaign-00187396)[[^]](https://dv.fppc.ca.gov/Detail?Name=Newsom%2C+Gavin&Year=2025). Despite this specific temporal gap, other available information generally indicates a lead for Newsom.

Current prediction markets consistently show Gavin Newsom ahead of Kamala Harris. Polymarket data indicates Newsom at **27%** for the 2028 Democratic nomination, significantly higher than Harris's 6-**8%** [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://markets.bitcoin.com/prediction/polymarket/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028). Similarly, Kalshi places Newsom with a **32%** implied **probability**, while Harris holds **6%** [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/democratic-presidential-election-odds/).

Earlier data also supports Newsom's lead among Democratic voters and in fundraising. A UC Berkeley poll conducted in March 2026, outside the specified H2 2026 timeframe, revealed Newsom with **28%** support among California Democratic primary voters, compared to Harris's **14%** [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/4489301/newsom-twice-support-harris-2028-presidential-primary-poll/)[[^]](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/12/newsom-opens-commanding-lead-over-harris-in-2028-california-primary-poll-00824633). Additionally, Gavin Newsom's Campaign for Democracy PAC had successfully raised **$3.9** million by September 2025 [[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-waters-183008351.html).

## What potential stumbles by frontrunners Newsom or Harris before Q1 2027 could create a viable opening for a self-funded campaign by J.B. Pritzker?

Newsom CA Primary Poll | 28% (March 2026 [[^]](https://www.newsbreak.com/politico-560779/4536075158941-newsom-opens-commanding-lead-over-harris-in-2028-california-primary-poll)) |
Harris Echelon Poll | 22% (April 2026 [[^]](https://conservativeinstitute.org/politics/echelon-insights-2028-poll-vance-dominates-gop-field-while-harris-clings-to-razor-thin-democratic-lead.htm)) |
Pritzker Prediction Market | ~2% (2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination)[[^]](https://oddsraven.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)) |

**Frontrunners Newsom and Harris face potential challenges creating an opening for Pritzker**

Frontrunners Newsom and Harris face potential challenges creating an opening for Pritzker. Governor Gavin Newsom currently shows varying leads over Vice President Kamala Harris in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. A March 2026 California Democratic primary poll indicated Newsom leading Harris **28%** to **14%** [[^]](https://www.newsbreak.com/politico-560779/4536075158941-newsom-opens-commanding-lead-over-harris-in-2028-california-primary-poll). However, an April 2026 Echelon poll suggested a more fragmented national Democratic field, with Harris at **22%** and Newsom at **21%** [[^]](https://conservativeinstitute.org/politics/echelon-insights-2028-poll-vance-dominates-gop-field-while-harris-clings-to-razor-thin-democratic-lead.htm). A significant vulnerability for Newsom, particularly susceptible to Republican attacks, is his record on homelessness [[^]](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2026/03/25/gavin-newsoms-tragic-mistake-on-homelessness/).

Harris's past challenges create an opening for self-funded candidate Pritzker. Vice President Kamala Harris carries baggage from the 2024 election cycle, including a suppressed Democratic National Committee autopsy report and criticisms regarding her memoir for allegedly dodging responsibility [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/kamala-harris-dnc-release-autopsy-report-2024-campaign-rcna343453)[[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/from-tell-all-end-all-former-vice-president-kamala-harris-5-big-career-mistakes). This fragmented Democratic field, combined with potential stumbles by frontrunners, could create a viable opening for J.B. Pritzker, described as a billionaire self-funder with an anti-Trump backbone [[^]](https://time.com/article/2026/04/28/jb-pritzker-trump-presidency-2028/). Current prediction markets reflect Newsom at 26-**27%**, Harris at 5-**6%**, and Pritzker at approximately **2%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination)[[^]](https://oddsraven.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028).

## How do the policy platforms and donor networks of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Josh Shapiro appeal to the progressive versus moderate wings of the Democratic party?

AOC H1 2025 Fundraising | $15M from 736K small donors, averaging $20 per donation [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/26/politics/aoc-ocasio-cortez-fundraising-democrats) |
Shapiro Bloomberg Donation (2023/2026 cycles) | $2.5M from Bloomberg [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/josh-shapiro/contributors?cycle=2023&id=6454796) |
Shapiro Greylock/Reid Hoffman Donation (2023/2026 cycles) | $1.1M from Greylock/Reid Hoffman [[^]](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/josh-shapiro/contributors) |

**Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's platform and fundraising clearly target the Democratic progressive wing**

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's platform and fundraising clearly target the Democratic progressive wing. Her advocacy for policies such as Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and a federal jobs guarantee aligns with core progressive ideals [[^]](https://ocasiocortez.com/platform)[[^]](https://www.ocasiocortez.com/issues)[[^]](http://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/about). This progressive appeal is further evidenced by her fundraising efforts, which amassed **$15** million in the first half of 2025 from 736,000 small donors, with an average donation of **$20** [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/26/politics/aoc-ocasio-cortez-fundraising-democrats).

Josh Shapiro appeals to moderates through a centrist policy and donor network. Described as a centrist Democrat, Shapiro attracts a broader base of voters by supporting policies like pro-abortion rights and a **$15** minimum wage, while also holding pro-Israel views and having previously supported the death penalty [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Shapiro). His donor base reflects this wider appeal, including significant contributions such as **$2.5** million from Bloomberg [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/josh-shapiro/contributors?cycle=2023&id=6454796) and **$1.1** million from Greylock/Reid Hoffman [[^]](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/josh-shapiro/contributors), alongside support from unions and business leaders [[^]](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/josh-shapiro?cycle=2026-election-cycle).

Democrats debate balancing progressive priorities with centrist appeal for 2028. The Democratic party is currently grappling with whether a progressive or centrist strategy will be more effective for the 2028 election cycle [[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/democrats-grapple-choice-progressive-vs-110000142.html). This internal discussion centers on how to best balance the priorities of the party's base with the critical need to appeal to swing voters [[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/democrats-grapple-choice-progressive-vs-110000142.html).

## What is the official DNC timeline for setting the 2028 primary calendar, and how might the inclusion of new early states like Michigan or Georgia impact the race?

DNC 2028 early states resolution passed | October 27, 2025 [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to.html)[[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-establish-procedure-for-presidential-nominating-calendar-early-state-selection-process/) |
RFP deadline for applicant states | January 16, 2026 [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to.html)[[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-establish-procedure-for-presidential-nominating-calendar-early-state-selection-process/) |
Gavin Newsom 2028 Dem nomination odds | 27% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination) |

**The Democratic National Committee (DNC) established a detailed timeline for the 2028 primary calendar**

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) established a detailed timeline for the 2028 primary calendar. The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) initiated the 2028 early states selection process by passing a resolution on October 27, 2025 [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to.html)[[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-establish-procedure-for-presidential-nominating-calendar-early-state-selection-process/). The deadline for states to submit Requests for Proposals (RFPs) was set for January 16, 2026, with 12 applicant states subsequently advancing in the process on January 31, 2026 [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to.html)[[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-establish-procedure-for-presidential-nominating-calendar-early-state-selection-process/). The DNC plans for the early window to include 4-5 states, ensuring one state is selected from each of the East, Midwest, South, and West regions [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to.html).

Twelve states have applied for a coveted early primary position. Among the states that submitted proposals for an early primary slot were Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia [[^]](https://democrats.org/news/dnc-rules-and-bylaws-committee-votes-to-advance-12-states-to-next-phase-of-2028-presidential-calendar-selection-process/)[[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar). Michigan is being highlighted as a 'most diverse battleground' [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/states-push-front-line-democrats-2028-presidential-contest-rcna254455), while Georgia's potential inclusion early in the calendar is contingent on Democratic victories in the 2026 elections [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar). However, specific research on how the inclusion of new early states, such as Michigan or Georgia, might impact the Democratic presidential nomination race in 2028 is not currently available.

Early projections reveal potential contenders for the 2028 Democratic nomination. Regarding the prospective candidates for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, Polymarket's current odds show Gavin Newsom leading with **27%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination). Other notable figures include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) at 8-**9%**, Kamala Harris at **6%**, and Jon Ossoff also at **6%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination).

## What electoral data from 2024-2026 suggests Gretchen Whitmer or Wes Moore could successfully appeal to Midwest 'blue wall' voters in a 2028 primary?

Whitmer 2025 Michigan Approval | 63% (2025 poll) [[^]](https://www.mlive.com/politics/2025/05/michigan-voters-favor-whitmers-common-ground-approach-with-trump-poll-finds.html) |
Michigan 2024 Presidential Result | Flipped to Trump by 1.42% [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan) |
Whitmer 2026 Michigan Approval | 50-59.6% (2026 polls) [[^]](https://home.mirs.news/post/majority-say-country-on-wrong-track-whitmer-approval-at-50-trump-iran-handling-underwater)[[^]](https://gmg-wdiv-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/news/local/2026/01/12/poll-heres-where-michigan-voters-stand-in-the-2026-gubernatorial-race/)[[^]](https://www.mrgmi.com/post/spring-2026-state-of-the-state-of-public-opinion-plurality-of-michigan-voters-believe-state-is-on-the-wrong-track) |

**Gretchen Whitmer initially demonstrated strong bipartisan appeal in Michigan despite the state flipping Republican**

Gretchen Whitmer initially demonstrated strong bipartisan appeal in Michigan despite the state flipping Republican. In 2025, she held a **63%** overall approval rating in Michigan, including **66%** among independents and **35%** among Republicans [[^]](https://www.mlive.com/politics/2025/05/michigan-voters-favor-whitmers-common-ground-approach-with-trump-poll-finds.html). Her ability to foster cross-party support was further highlighted by **60%** of Michigan voters backing her collaboration with Donald Trump in a 2025 poll [[^]](https://www.mlive.com/politics/2025/05/michigan-voters-favor-whitmers-common-ground-approach-with-trump-poll-finds.html). However, the state of Michigan, considered a key 'blue wall' territory, did flip to Trump in the 2024 presidential election by a margin of **1.42%**, indicating a challenging political landscape for Democrats in the region [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan).

Whitmer's approval ratings later dipped; Wes Moore's Midwest appeal remains unclear. Following the 2024 election results, Whitmer's approval ratings in Michigan decreased to between **50%** and **59.6%** in 2026 polls, coinciding with broader national sentiments that the country was on the 'wrong track' [[^]](https://home.mirs.news/post/majority-say-country-on-wrong-track-whitmer-approval-at-50-trump-iran-handling-underwater)[[^]](https://gmg-wdiv-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/news/local/2026/01/12/poll-heres-where-michigan-voters-stand-in-the-2026-gubernatorial-race/)[[^]](https://www.mrgmi.com/post/spring-2026-state-of-the-state-of-public-opinion-plurality-of-michigan-voters-believe-state-is-on-the-wrong-track). While Wes Moore campaigned in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2024, the available electoral data from 2024-2026 does not directly indicate his specific appeal to Midwest 'blue wall' voters [[^]](https://thenorthwestern.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/02/wes-moore-end-panic-over-biden-black-voters/74133498007/). His approval rating in Maryland was **52%** in 2025-2026, and the 2024 cycle also saw Democratic losses nationally from Maryland [[^]](https://thenorthwestern.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/02/wes-moore-end-panic-over-biden-black-voters/74133498007/)[[^]](https://thedailyrecord.com/2025/11/05/moore-approval-rating-maryland-poll-2026/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The speculative field for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 includes several prominent figures, as no formal candidates have been announced as of May 8, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2028).** Gavin Newsom holds a **25%** implied **probability** on the Polymarket Democratic nominee **market** as of May 2026 [[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028). Kamala Harris confirmed in April 2026 that she is considering a 2028 run [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/kamala-harris-confirms-might-run-president-2028-rcna273682)[[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/politics/kamala-harris-2028-presidential-election), and leads some early polls, such as the RCP average at **28%** [[^]](https://www90.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2028/president/us/2028_democratic_presidential_nomination-8748.html), while generally polling or appearing in markets between 8-**28%** [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/kamala-harris-confirms-might-run-president-2028-rcna273682)[[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/politics/kamala-harris-2028-presidential-election)[[^]](https://www90.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2028/president/us/2028_democratic_presidential_nomination-8748.html). Other contenders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is at **8%** on the Polymarket nominee **market** and rising in betting odds [[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028), and Jon Ossoff, who is at 6.8-**8.9%** in markets and gaining among moderates [[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028). Andy Beshear is also identified as potentially underpriced in markets due to his red-state wins [[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**).

**A significant catalyst to watch is the ongoing Democratic National Committee's early primary process, with 12 states having applied in January 2026 for a spot at the front of the line [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar)[[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar).** Decisions on the primary calendar are expected in spring 2026 [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar)[[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/democrats-2028-primary-calendar). These developments will precede the general election, which is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with early voting set to begin in late September 2028 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2028_United_States_presidential_election).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2028
- **Closes:** January 01, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The speculative field for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 includes several prominent figures, as no formal candidates have been announced as of May 8, 2026 [^] .
- Gavin Newsom holds a **25%** implied **probability** on the Polymarket Democratic nominee **market** as of May 2026 [^] [^] .
- Kamala Harris confirmed in April 2026 that she is considering a 2028 run [^] [^] , and leads some early polls, such as the RCP average at **28%** [^] , while generally polling or appearing in markets between 8-**28%** [^] [^] [^] .
- Other contenders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is at **8%** on the Polymarket nominee **market** and rising in betting odds [^] [^] , and Jon Ossoff, who is at 6.8-**8.9%** in markets and gaining among moderates [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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