# How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

On Feb 1, 2027

Updated: August 6, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: House, House Combos, Election Combos

HTML: /markets/elections/house/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Republicans to hold 203-207 House seats after the Midterms, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - Since last update (~100d): Model increased +16.2pp for 203-207 (market +2.0pp), flipping the edge, indicating model conviction.** - **Model** also raised 198-202 odds +13.9pp, leading the **market** and flipping the edge.
- The **model** reduced 'Below 193' odds by -17.1pp, tracking a -21.0pp **market** decline.
- **Model** odds for 'Above 237' fell -10.9pp, flipping the edge despite **market** gains (+1.8pp).

**- - Republican seat counts around 203-207 appear most likely, implying a Democratic House majority.** - Democratic House control is highly probable, driven by clear primary turnout enthusiasm.
- Republicans holding below 193 seats could result from a wide Democratic popular vote margin.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

**Model** at **14%** for 193 GOP seats versus 18c **market** price implies a 5.6x payout multiple.

This market has traded in a stable, narrow range between 16.0% and 19.0% probability since its inception. The price established a floor at 16.0% before moving to its peak of 19.0% around July 31. It has since settled near the top of this range at 18.0%. The overall trend is sideways, suggesting a consensus has formed around a low probability for the "YES" side of the contract. The key technical levels are clear: support at 16.0% and resistance at 19.0%.

The brief price appreciation to 19.0% occurred on significant volume (250 contracts), but recent trading has been very light, with only 9 contracts traded at the current 18.0% level. This suggests the initial move up had some conviction, but the market has since entered a period of low activity and price consolidation. The general market sentiment, reflected in the consistently sub-20% price, aligns with external news context. As of early August, major forecasting models from sources including Decision Desk HQ and The Economist indicate that Democrats are favored to win a House majority.

The price action suggests the market is pricing in a low but persistent probability of a Republican hold, a view that has remained largely unchanged. The tight trading band indicates that no recent information has been sufficient to meaningfully shift this outlook. The market's stability implies traders see current conditions, where Democrats are favored, as the baseline reality, with the price reflecting the odds of an upset.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below 193 | 18.0% | 14.0% | Democratic primary turnout data shows a clear enthusiasm advantage, suggesting a strong Democratic wave. |
| 223-227 | 4.9% | 3.3% | This implies Republican seat gains, which contradicts the consensus predicting a Democratic takeover and GOP losses. |
| 228-232 | 2.8% | 1.9% | This Republican landslide scenario is overwhelmingly contradicted by all major forecasting models and prediction markets. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Below 193 | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| 223-227 | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| 228-232 | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| 218-222 | 7.6% | 5.1% |
| Above 237 | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| 233-237 | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| 193-197 | 10.0% | 11.8% |
| 208-212 | 11.0% | 14.7% |
| 213-217 | 11.0% | 8.4% |
| 198-202 | 15.0% | 16.8% |
| 203-207 | 15.0% | 19.1% |

- Expiration: February 1, 2027

## Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves to "YES" if Republicans hold fewer than 193 House seats after the Midterms, and "NO" if they hold 193 or more. The market begins on November 3, 7:00 am EST, with a maximum payout date of February 1, 2027. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions beyond the specified seat count threshold.

## Market Discussion

As of early August 2026, prediction markets and quantitative forecasting models estimate Republicans will likely hold 204–209 House seats, falling short of the 218 required for a majority [[1]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)[[2]](https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/50855-democrats-lead-narrowly-in-the-house-while-republicans-have-an-edge-in-the-senate-mrp-estimates)[[3]](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house). These models and markets assign a high probability (approximately 80–86%) to Democrats winning control of the U.S. House [[1]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[5]](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026)[[6]](https://noah-news.com/prediction-markets-signal-democrats-as-clear-favourites-to-win-us-house-in-2026/). Specifically, the Decision Desk HQ forecast model, as of August 6, 2026, projects Democrats to win 227 seats and gives them a 63% probability of controlling the House [[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[7]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model).

Sources:

1. [House Control 2026 Odds: Model Verdict Vs. Market | OddsShopper](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)
2. [Democrats lead narrowly in the House while Republicans have an edge in the Senate, according to our final MRP estimates](https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/50855-democrats-lead-narrowly-in-the-house-while-republicans-have-an-edge-in-the-senate-mrp-estimates)
3. [US House of Representatives 2026 forecast | The Economist](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house)
4. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
5. [Which party will win the House in 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026)
6. [Prediction markets signal Democrats as clear favourites to win US House in 2026 midterms | Noah Intelligence](https://noah-news.com/prediction-markets-signal-democrats-as-clear-favourites-to-win-us-house-in-2026/)
7. [Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQ](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below 193 | 18% | 19% | 18% | 401,386 contracts | 263,156 contracts |
| 193-197 | 10% | 11% | 10% | 151,367 contracts | 87,280 contracts |
| 198-202 | 14% | 15% | 15% | 121,049 contracts | 86,546 contracts |
| 203-207 | 15% | 16% | 15% | 114,602 contracts | 88,718 contracts |
| 208-212 | 12% | 13% | 11% | 142,818 contracts | 118,207 contracts |
| 213-217 | 11% | 12% | 11% | 137,116 contracts | 121,542 contracts |
| 218-222 | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 244,598 contracts | 145,890 contracts |
| 223-227 | 5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 316,744 contracts | 198,477 contracts |
| 228-232 | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 280,041 contracts | 161,255 contracts |
| 233-237 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 192,803 contracts | 165,085 contracts |
| Above 237 | 3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 230,616 contracts | 193,786 contracts |

## What are the current 2026 House seat projections from leading non-partisan election models like The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight, and what key assumptions underpin their forecasts?

DDHQ Democratic Probability | 62%–63% (Decision Desk HQ [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[2]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[3]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)) |
Cook Political Report Toss-up Seats | 18 (The Cook Political Report [[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)[[5]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2026-house-race-ratings-another-knife-fight-majority)[[6]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/cook-political-report-2026-house-ratings)[[7]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/taking-stock-house-math)) |
Prediction Market Democratic Control | 80%–84% (Kalshi [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[8]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)[[9]](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house)) |

**Leading models and markets currently project a Democratic House takeover in 2026**

Leading models and markets currently project a Democratic House takeover in 2026. As of August 6, 2026, the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) **model** forecasts Democrats are narrowly favored to win, with a **62%**–**63%** **probability** compared to **37%**–**40%** for Republicans [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[2]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[3]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model). The DDHQ **model** estimates that the most likely outcome is Democrats securing 227 seats in the U.S. House [[3]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model). Similarly, prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi strongly favor Democrats, pricing their control at approximately 80–**84%** [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[8]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)[[9]](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house).

The Cook Political Report indicates a highly competitive House environment. As of July 16, 2026, The Cook Political Report rated the House as extremely competitive, identifying 18 toss-up seats [[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)[[5]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2026-house-race-ratings-another-knife-fight-majority)[[6]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/cook-political-report-2026-house-ratings)[[7]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/taking-stock-house-math). Their analysis also suggests that if the Alabama redistricting map is upheld, Republicans are favored in 212 seats and Democrats in 205 [[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)[[5]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2026-house-race-ratings-another-knife-fight-majority)[[6]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/cook-political-report-2026-house-ratings)[[7]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/taking-stock-house-math). Key assumptions underpinning these forecasts generally include the generic ballot polling trend, the impacts of mid-decade redistricting, district-level political makeup (Cook PVI), and national presidential approval ratings [[8]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)[[9]](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house)[[10]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2026-house-map-versus-2018/). The DDHQ methodology specifically incorporates structural fundamentals, aggregate public polling, and aggregated prediction **market** data using various algorithms [[11]](https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/2026-forecast-methodology).

Sources:

1. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
2. [2026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)
3. [Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQ](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)
4. [2026 CPR House Race ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)
5. [2026 House Race Ratings: Another Knife Fight for the Majority](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2026-house-race-ratings-another-knife-fight-majority)
6. [Cook Political Report 2026 House Ratings - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/cook-political-report-2026-house-ratings)
7. [Taking Stock of the House Math | Cook Political Report](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/taking-stock-house-math)
8. [House Control 2026 Odds: Model Verdict Vs. Market | OddsShopper](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/house-control-2026-model-verdict)
9. [US House of Representatives 2026 forecast | The Economist](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house)
10. [The 2026 House Map is No More Favorable to Republicans than the 2018 Map was - Sabato's Crystal Ball](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2026-house-map-versus-2018/)
11. [https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/2026-forecast-methodology](https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/2026-forecast-methodology)

## How might key economic data released in Q3 and Q4 2026, such as the final pre-election jobs and inflation reports, be expected to shift the generic congressional ballot?

GDP Growth | Near 2% (August 2026) [[1]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-economic-outlook) |
Payroll Growth | Around 111,000 (August 2026) [[1]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-economic-outlook) |
Democratic Generic Ballot Lead | 4% to 5% (August 2026) [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/18/democrats-have-the-second-highest-generic-ballot-lead-in-may-of-any-midterm-year/)[[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Generic_congressional_vote)[[4]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model) |

**Economic data released in late 2026 will likely impact the congressional ballot**

Economic data released in late 2026 will likely impact the congressional ballot. Key economic reports in Q3 and Q4 2026, including final pre-election jobs and inflation figures, are anticipated to influence the generic congressional ballot, especially given voter concerns regarding the cost of living and its effect on President Trump's approval rating [[5]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/trumps-approval-on-economy-falls-in-ap-norc-poll-showing-new-warning-signs-for-president-2/). However, political science research suggests that the direct and independent impact of economic indicators on midterm ballot outcomes is often less pronounced compared to broader presidential approval and ideological balancing patterns [[6]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/when-should-we-start-paying-attention-congressional-generic-ballot)[[7]](https://digitalcommons.dartmouth.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3365&context=facoa)[[8]](https://sites.temple.edu/corparchives/files/2019/08/Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien-Midterm-Elections.pdf).

The US economy shows moderate growth amid inflation concerns as of August 2026. Current conditions are characterized by moderate GDP growth near **2%**, a stabilizing labor **market** with payroll growth around 111,000, and inflation that is cooling but remains elevated [[1]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-economic-outlook). Risks such as energy prices and the sustainability of AI investment are noted, though there is potential for further inflation cooling [[1]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-economic-outlook)[[9]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/us-midyear-outlook-geopolitical-shocks-the-new-fed-era-and-growth)[[10]](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html). President Trump's approval rating on the economy has faced downward pressure, with **64%** of voters reporting increased spending on basic household expenses in June 2026 [[5]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/trumps-approval-on-economy-falls-in-ap-norc-poll-showing-new-warning-signs-for-president-2/).

Democrats currently hold a lead in the generic congressional ballot, according to recent data. The generic congressional ballot and the president's job approval rating are critical indicators for House control [[4]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model). As of August 2026, Democrats maintained a **4%** to **5%** lead in the generic congressional ballot, which marks a decrease from an **8%** lead in May 2026 [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/18/democrats-have-the-second-highest-generic-ballot-lead-in-may-of-any-midterm-year/)[[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Generic_congressional_vote)[[4]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model). Furthermore, prediction markets and Decision Desk HQ forecasts as of August 6, 2026, assign a high implied **probability** to Democrats securing control of the US House [[11]](https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner/controlh-2026)[[12]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-odds-2026-11-03)[[13]](https://www.electionodds.com/house/)[[14]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/midterms)[[15]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[16]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[4]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model).

Sources:

1. [US economic outlook July 2026 | EY - US](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/us-economic-outlook)
2. [Democrats have the second-highest generic ballot lead in May of any midterm year - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/18/democrats-have-the-second-highest-generic-ballot-lead-in-may-of-any-midterm-year/)
3. [Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Generic congressional vote](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Generic_congressional_vote)
4. [Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQ](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)
5. [Trump's approval on economy falls in AP-NORC poll, showing new warning signs for president | The Associated Press](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/trumps-approval-on-economy-falls-in-ap-norc-poll-showing-new-warning-signs-for-president-2/)
6. [When Should We Start Paying Attention to the Congressional Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/when-should-we-start-paying-attention-congressional-generic-ballot)
7. [Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional...](https://digitalcommons.dartmouth.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3365&context=facoa)
8. [Ideological Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections](https://sites.temple.edu/corparchives/files/2019/08/Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien-Midterm-Elections.pdf)
9. [US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth | Goldman Sachs](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/us-midyear-outlook-geopolitical-shocks-the-new-fed-era-and-growth)
10. [US economic forecast | Deloitte Insights](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html)
11. [Which party will win the U.S. House?](https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner/controlh-2026)
12. [Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | W.E.T.](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-odds-2026-11-03)
13. [2026 House of Representatives Betting Odds + Control Odds](https://www.electionodds.com/house/)
14. [2026 Midterm Election Odds — Senate, House & Governor Prediction Markets | W.E.T.](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/midterms)
15. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
16. [2026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)

## How do the expected net seat changes from post-2020 redistricting in Republican-controlled states like Florida and Texas compare with those from Democratic-controlled states like New York and Illinois?

Florida Delegation Shift | Democrats lost 3 seats, Republicans gained 4 [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses) |
Texas House Seats Gained | 2 seats due to apportionment [[2]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableD.pdf)[[3]](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/census-briefs/c2020br-01.pdf)[[4]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12027/IN12027.3.pdf) |
New York & Illinois House Seats Lost | 1 seat each due to 2020 Census [[2]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableD.pdf)[[3]](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/census-briefs/c2020br-01.pdf)[[4]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12027/IN12027.3.pdf) |

**Republican-controlled states secured structural advantages through post-2020 redistricting efforts**

Republican-controlled states secured structural advantages through post-2020 redistricting efforts. Redistricting initiatives in states like Florida and Texas established structural advantages for the Republican Party, leading to varying net seat changes and partisan shifts [[5]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-gerrymandering-tilts-2024-race-house)[[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses)[[6]](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Illinois_after_the_2020_census). Both Florida and Texas gained seats due to 2020 Census apportionment, with Florida adding one and Texas two [[2]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableD.pdf)[[3]](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/census-briefs/c2020br-01.pdf)[[4]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12027/IN12027.3.pdf). Florida's delegation experienced a significant swing towards Republicans, as Democrats lost three seats and Republicans gained four [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses). Conversely, in Texas, despite gaining two U.S. House seats, the partisan composition of its congressional delegation remained unchanged after the 2022 election cycle [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses).

Democratic-controlled states faced seat losses and varied partisan shifts. Conversely, Democratic-controlled states such as New York and Illinois each lost one House seat following the 2020 Census [[2]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableD.pdf)[[3]](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/census-briefs/c2020br-01.pdf)[[4]](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12027/IN12027.3.pdf). Having fewer opportunities for aggressive new gains, these states prioritized shoring up existing seats [[5]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-gerrymandering-tilts-2024-race-house). New York's delegation shifted towards Republicans, who gained three seats while Democrats lost four, subsequent to its seat loss [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses)[[6]](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Illinois_after_the_2020_census). In contrast, Illinois's delegation shifted towards Democrats, who gained one seat while Republicans lost two, following its own loss of a House seat [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses)[[6]](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Illinois_after_the_2020_census).

Sources:

1. [Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Comparison_of_state_delegations_to_the_117th_and_118th_Congresses)
2. [Table D1. Number of Seats Gained and Lost in U.S. House of Representatives and Table D2. Number of Seats Gained and Lost in U.S. House of Representatives by State: 2010 Census](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableD.pdf)
3. [Congressional Apportionment](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/census-briefs/c2020br-01.pdf)
4. [2020 Census Delays, Apportionment, and](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12027/IN12027.3.pdf)
5. [How Gerrymandering Tilts the 2024 Race for the House](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-gerrymandering-tilts-2024-race-house)
6. [Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Illinois_after_the_2020_census)

## What do the completed 2026 primary election results and turnout data from bellwether districts indicate about relative party enthusiasm and candidate quality for Republicans versus Democrats?

Trump-endorsed candidate win rate | 97% [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/) |
Republican incumbent primary loss rate | 3.3% [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/22/state-legislative-incumbents-are-retiring-at-a-lower-rate-facing-primaries-at-a-higher-rate-in-2026/)[[3]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/2-6-of-state-legislative-incumbents-have-lost-their-primaries-so-far-this-year/)[[4]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/so-far-this-year-fewer-incumbent-state-legislators-are-retiring-but-more-are-running-in-contested-primary-elections/) |
Democratic incumbent primary loss rate | 1.3% [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/22/state-legislative-incumbents-are-retiring-at-a-lower-rate-facing-primaries-at-a-higher-rate-in-2026/)[[3]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/2-6-of-state-legislative-incumbents-have-lost-their-primaries-so-far-this-year/)[[4]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/so-far-this-year-fewer-incumbent-state-legislators-are-retiring-but-more-are-running-in-contested-primary-elections/) |

**Democratic primary turnout shows a clear enthusiasm advantage this cycle**

Democratic primary turnout shows a clear enthusiasm advantage this cycle. As of August 2026, primary election data indicates that Democratic voter turnout generally surpasses Republican primaries when compared to the 2022 and 2018 cycles [[5]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/03/politics/midterm-turnout-democrats-republicans-cnn-analysis)[[6]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/22/democratic-turnout-is-surging-surprising-places-post-analysis-finds/). Within Democratic races, progressive candidates have achieved success in safe districts, while centrist or establishment candidates have generally performed better in competitive swing districts, suggesting a strategic emphasis on electability in key battleground areas [[7]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/progressives-notch-more-primary-victories-in-potential-bellwether-for-midterms).

Republican primaries show strong base alignment but higher incumbent losses. Republican primary outcomes reveal distinct patterns, with **97%** of Trump-endorsed candidates winning their 2026 primary races, demonstrating strong alignment between the party’s base and endorsed candidates [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/). However, state-level 2026 primary data also indicates that Republican incumbents lost to primary challengers at a higher rate of **3.3%** compared to Democratic incumbents, who lost at a rate of **1.3%** [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/22/state-legislative-incumbents-are-retiring-at-a-lower-rate-facing-primaries-at-a-higher-rate-in-2026/)[[3]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/2-6-of-state-legislative-incumbents-have-lost-their-primaries-so-far-this-year/)[[4]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/so-far-this-year-fewer-incumbent-state-legislators-are-retiring-but-more-are-running-in-contested-primary-elections/). This occurred amidst a notably high rate of contested primaries for incumbents, marking the second-highest incidence since 2010 [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/22/state-legislative-incumbents-are-retiring-at-a-lower-rate-facing-primaries-at-a-higher-rate-in-2026/)[[3]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/2-6-of-state-legislative-incumbents-have-lost-their-primaries-so-far-this-year/)[[4]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/so-far-this-year-fewer-incumbent-state-legislators-are-retiring-but-more-are-running-in-contested-primary-elections/).

Sources:

1. [97% of Trump-endorsed candidates won primaries this election cycle - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/)
2. [State legislative incumbents are retiring at a lower rate, facing primaries at a higher rate in 2026 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/22/state-legislative-incumbents-are-retiring-at-a-lower-rate-facing-primaries-at-a-higher-rate-in-2026/)
3. [2.6% of state legislative incumbents have lost their primaries so far this year - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/2-6-of-state-legislative-incumbents-have-lost-their-primaries-so-far-this-year/)
4. [So far this year, fewer incumbent state legislators are retiring, but more are running in contested primary elections - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/so-far-this-year-fewer-incumbent-state-legislators-are-retiring-but-more-are-running-in-contested-primary-elections/)
5. [CNN analysis: Turnout in this year’s primary elections clearly favors Democrats so far | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/03/politics/midterm-turnout-democrats-republicans-cnn-analysis)
6. [Democratic turnout is up, even in Republican districts,...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/22/democratic-turnout-is-surging-surprising-places-post-analysis-finds/)
7. [Progressives notch more primary victories in potential...](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/progressives-notch-more-primary-victories-in-potential-bellwether-for-midterms)

## Which 10-15 seats are considered the most critical toss-up races that will likely decide House control, according to consensus ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections?

Sabato's Crystal Ball Toss-ups | 20 districts (July/August 2026) [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house) |
Inside Elections Toss-ups | 14 races (July/August 2026) [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house) |
Consensus Toss-up District | New York's 17th District (NY-17) [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)[[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |

**Key election forecasters identify numerous critical toss-up races**

Key election forecasters identify numerous critical toss-up races. Consensus ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections highlight several districts considered crucial to determining control of the House. As of July and August 2026, Sabato's Crystal Ball lists 20 districts as House toss-ups, while Inside Elections identifies 14 such races [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house). Major election forecasters, including these two, classify a significant number of these districts as highly competitive [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

Several districts consistently appear as toss-ups across major forecasts. Among the districts with strong consensus ratings, New York's 17th District (NY-17) is identified as a toss-up by Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and other major forecasters [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)[[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Pennsylvania's 8th District (PA-8) is also rated as a toss-up by both Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house). Other districts major forecasters classify as toss-ups include Iowa's 1st District (IA-1), Michigan's 10th District (MI-10), North Carolina's 1st District (NC-1), Pennsylvania's 10th District (PA-10), and Florida's 25th District (FL-25) [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)[[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward). Additionally, California's 22nd Congressional District (CA-22) is rated as a Toss-up or Tilt Republican as of July 2026 [[8]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/18/election-forecasters-rate-ca-22-toss-up-or-tilt-republican-as-valadao-r-and-villegas-d-run-under-new-district-lines/).

Additional toss-up races emerge from individual forecaster assessments. To further detail critical toss-up races, Sabato's Crystal Ball specifically includes Florida's 14th District (FL-14) and North Carolina's 11th District (NC-11) as toss-ups [[1]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)[[2]](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward). Inside Elections identifies Arizona's 1st (AZ-1), Arizona's 6th (AZ-6), Colorado's 8th (CO-8), Michigan's 7th (MI-7), and Pennsylvania's 7th (PA-7) districts as competitive toss-up races [[3]](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)[[4]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house).

Sources:

1. [Thirteen House Rating Changes Toward Democrats as Seat-by-Seat Assessment Better Aligns with Our November Expectations - Sabato's Crystal Ball](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations/)
2. [Thirteen House Rating Changes Toward Democrats as Seat-by-Seat Assessment Better Aligns with Our November Expectations](https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward)
3. [House Ratings | Inside Elections](https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house)
4. [The Cook Political Report: 2026 House Race Ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)
5. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
6. [2026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)
7. [Iowa's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026)
8. [Election forecasters rate CA-22 Toss-up or Tilt Republican as Valadao (R) and Villegas (D) run under new district lines - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/18/election-forecasters-rate-ca-22-toss-up-or-tilt-republican-as-valadao-r-and-villegas-d-run-under-new-district-lines/)

## What Could Change the Odds

**As of August 6, 2026, the U.S.** House of Representatives consists of 219 Republican seats and 212 Democratic seats, with 4 vacancies [[1]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/). The threshold for a majority is 218 seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026). Prediction **market** consensus as of August 2026 suggests Republicans are favored to maintain control of the House, with some markets forecasting approximately 228 Republican seats against 204 Democratic seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[1]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/). Conversely, Decision Desk HQ's forecast **model**, also as of August 2026, projects Democrats are favored to win a House majority, with a 60-**63%** **probability** of gaining control and an expected 227 Democratic seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[5]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model).

**Key catalysts influencing prediction markets in the final months before the November 3, 2026, election include economic indicators such as inflation and interest rates [[6]](https://insidepredictions.com/news/2026-midterm-elections)[[7]](https://predictionauthority.com/politics/senate-midterms-100-days-democrats-path-kalshi-polymarket-2026/)[[8]](https://www.alphascope.app/blog/2026-midterm-prediction-markets).** Late-cycle polling, debate performances, the impact of mid-decade redistricting, and any October surprises also represent significant factors [[6]](https://insidepredictions.com/news/2026-midterm-elections)[[7]](https://predictionauthority.com/politics/senate-midterms-100-days-democrats-path-kalshi-polymarket-2026/)[[8]](https://www.alphascope.app/blog/2026-midterm-prediction-markets). The post-election period will lead up to the convening of the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027 [[9]](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/the-2026-midterms-key-dates-and-events/).

Sources:

1. [Incumbent Party for Each U.S. House Seat - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)
2. [2026 House Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/)
3. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
4. [2026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)
5. [Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQ](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)
6. [2026 Midterm Election Odds: House and Senate Markets](https://insidepredictions.com/news/2026-midterm-elections)
7. [Inside 100 Days to the Midterms. Democrats Have a Path to the Senate. Here's the Prediction Market Math. - Prediction Authority](https://predictionauthority.com/politics/senate-midterms-100-days-democrats-path-kalshi-polymarket-2026/)
8. [2026 Midterm Prediction Markets: Senate, House, and Gove… | Alphascope](https://www.alphascope.app/blog/2026-midterm-prediction-markets)
9. [The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Events](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/the-2026-midterms-key-dates-and-events/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** February 01, 2027
- **Closes:** February 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- As of August 6, 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 219 Republican seats and 212 Democratic seats, with 4 vacancies [[1]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/).
- The threshold for a majority is 218 seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026).
- Prediction **market** consensus as of August 2026 suggests Republicans are favored to maintain control of the House, with some markets forecasting approximately 228 Republican seats against 204 Democratic seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[1]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/).
- Conversely, Decision Desk HQ's forecast **model**, also as of August 2026, projects Democrats are favored to win a House majority, with a 60-**63%** **probability** of gaining control and an expected 227 Democratic seats [[3]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)[[5]](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model).

Sources:

1. [Incumbent Party for Each U.S. House Seat - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/2026-election-incumbent-party)
2. [2026 House Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/)
3. [2026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house)
4. [2026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026)
5. [Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQ](https://www.decisiondeskhq.com/press/decision-desk-hq-releases-2026-congressional-forecast-model)

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

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Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

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