# CA-24 primary: Who will advance?

CA-24

Updated: May 5, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Salud Carbajal to advance, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Incumbent Carbajal holds significant financial and electoral advantage.** - Challengers Pasquarella and Bacon offer distinct policy positions and strategies.
- No public polling data is available for the CA-24 primary race.
- Sarah Bacon's challenge to the incumbent shows very low viability.
- California's top-two primary encourages strategic voting and consolidation.
- Upcoming election deadlines in 2026 will serve as critical catalysts.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** prices Sarah Bacon at **7.1%** (7c), higher than the **2.7%** **model** estimate, implying a 14.1x payout if ~**3%** true.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Salud Carbajal | 95.8% | 94.5% | The debiased market price of 94.5% already reflects overwhelming confidence in Salud Carbajal, and while his financial advantage would support this high probability, it is not reliably cited in the provided text, leaving the market's assessment as the primary evidence; conversely, the distant primary date (June 2026) and identified potential future developments introduce significant inherent uncertainty which balances the high current probability. |
| Sarah Bacon | 7.1% | 2.7% | The absence of specific campaign developments or public profile details for Sarah Bacon in the provided research, contrasted with the incumbent's strong position, offers no new evidence to shift her debiased anchor probability of 2.7%. |
| Bob Smith | 94.0% | 92.1% | Incumbent Salud Carbajal's overwhelming fundraising advantage ($3.2 million cash-on-hand compared to Bob Smith's $52,000) strongly reinforces the market's implied very low probability for Bob Smith to advance. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Salud Carbajal | 95.8% | 94.5% |
| Sarah Bacon | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Bob Smith | 94.0% | 92.1% |
| Helena Pasquarella | 11.0% | 4.6% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which tracks the probability of Sarah Bacon advancing from the CA-24 primary, has demonstrated a clear and decisive downward trend. The contract opened with an implied probability of 14.0% on April 25 but experienced a significant price drop, falling by nearly half to 7.1% by April 29. The primary cause of this price adjustment appears to be the market quickly correcting its initial valuation to align with the strong consensus favoring incumbent Salud Carbajal, whose perceived probability of advancing is around 96%. The sharp decline suggests traders rapidly sold "Yes" shares, viewing the opening price as an overestimation of Bacon's chances in a top-two primary system dominated by a well-established favorite.

Volume patterns underscore the market's conviction in this downward repricing. The majority of the total volume, nearly 90% of all traded contracts, occurred at the higher price level near 14.0%. In contrast, the subsequent drop to 7.1% occurred on very light volume, and trading has been minimal since. This pattern suggests that after an initial period of price discovery, sellers overwhelmed buyers, and the market has since settled with little disagreement. The 7.1% level is now acting as a support floor, though it has not been tested with significant volume. Overall, the chart action indicates a strong and stable bearish sentiment, with traders pricing Sarah Bacon as a long-shot candidate to advance to the general election.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if Sarah Bacon advances in the 2026 CA-24 primary, otherwise it resolves to NO, with verification from the California Secretary of State. The market opened on April 7, 2026, and can close early upon the event's occurrence, or by November 3, 2027, with payouts 30 minutes later. Special conditions include potential accelerated determination based on media consensus and a prohibition on insider trading by Source Agency employees.

## Market Discussion

In California's 24th Congressional District (CA-24) primary election on June 2, 2026, incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal and Republican Bob Smith are widely predicted to advance to the general election, benefiting from the state's top-two primary system [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)). Prediction markets consistently show high probabilities for both, with Carbajal around 95% and Smith approximately 93% [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance-jun-02-2026/). Other candidates, including Democrat Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella of the Peace and Freedom Party, have significantly lower chances of advancing according to these models [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance-jun-02-2026/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bob Smith | 88% | 96% | 94% | $101.01 | $101 |
| Helena Pasquarella | 5.9% | 14% | 11% | $10.01 | $5.01 |
| Sarah Bacon | 7.1% | 15% | 7.1% | $150.03 | $148.02 |
| Salud Carbajal | 91% | 96.7% | 95.8% | $10,614.09 | $6,259.51 |

## What potential campaign developments or external events between now and June 2026 could most impact the current polling for the CA-24 primary?

Incumbent cash-on-hand | $3.2 million (Salud Carbajal) [[^]](https://www.opencampaign.com/united-states-elections/3171/2026-u.s.-house-elections/california/district-24?district_name=district-24)[[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/24) |
Prediction market (Carbajal) | 95.8% for first place [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-first-place-jun-02-2026/) |
District Partisan Voter Index | D+13 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481936) |

**Incumbent Salud Carbajal holds a significant advantage in the CA-24 primary race**

Incumbent Salud Carbajal holds a significant advantage in the CA-24 primary race. Carbajal has demonstrated a substantial financial lead, raising over **$1** million and possessing **$3.2** million cash-on-hand. This contrasts sharply with challenger Bob Smith's reported **$52,000** [[^]](https://www.opencampaign.com/united-states-elections/3171/2026-u.s.-house-elections/california/district-24?district_name=district-24)[[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/24). Current prediction markets further underscore Carbajal's strong position, indicating a **95.8%** chance of securing first place in the primary scheduled for June 2, 2026. Smith is predicted at **94%** to advance in the primary election [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-first-place-jun-02-2026/).

The CA-24 district is a strong Democratic stronghold with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index (PVI) [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481936). Carbajal has historically performed well in the district, securing **53.7%** of the vote in previous primaries in 2024 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salud_Carbajal)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_24th_congressional_district). Key challengers vying for the seat include Navy veteran Bob Smith, who launched his campaign in September 2025, as well as Sarah Bacon (D), and Helena Pasquarella, who also contested the primary in 2024 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California's_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/election/article311959535.html)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Helena_Pasquarella).

Several external factors could significantly impact CA-24 primary polling between now and June 2026. Identified as key risks for the primary, these potential campaign developments and external events include a split in the Democratic vote, an unexpected increase in Republican voter turnout, issues concerning the local economy and housing **market**, and a national backlash against Donald Trump [[^]](https://www.newspress.com/2026/04/21/jerry-roberts-attacking-trumps-illegal-war-salud-calls-out-gop-colleagues-for-abdication-of-congressional-power/).

## How do challengers Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella compare on key policy positions and voter outreach strategies?

Pasquarella's Party | Peace and Freedom Party (Democratic Socialist) [[^]](https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article315012401.html) |
Bacon's Key Focus Areas | Civil rights, criminal justice, and economic policies [[^]](https://www.pasquarellaforcongress.com/) |
Pasquarella's Outreach Strategy | Grassroots approach, rejects corporate campaign donations [[^]](https://www.pasquarellaforcongress.com/)[[^]](https://goodparty.org/candidate/helena-pasquarella/us-house-of-representatives-california-24th-congressional-district) |

**Challengers Helena Pasquarella and Sarah Bacon propose distinct policy agendas**

Challengers Helena Pasquarella and Sarah Bacon propose distinct policy agendas. Helena Pasquarella, a Peace and Freedom Party candidate, campaigns on an anti-war, economic justice, and environmental protection platform, identifying as a Democratic Socialist [[^]](https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article315012401.html). Her specific policy proposals include divesting from the Pentagon, ending U.S. funding to Israel, an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, establishing a **$25** federal minimum wage, implementing universal single-payer healthcare, and forgiving student debt [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Bacon)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.pasquarellaforcongress.com/)[[^]](https://goodparty.org/candidate/helena-pasquarella/us-house-of-representatives-california-24th-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article315012401.html)[[^]](https://www.santamariasun.com/news-2/political-watch/political-watch-march-19-2026/). In contrast, Democratic candidate Sarah Bacon focuses her platform on civil rights, criminal justice reform, and economic policies, specifically advocating for antitrust enforcement, curbing private equity influence, and opposing for-profit prisons [[^]](https://www.pasquarellaforcongress.com/).

Their voter outreach strategies show differing approaches to engaging constituents. Helena Pasquarella's campaign employs a grassroots voter outreach strategy, which explicitly rejects corporate campaign donations and aims to engage voters who typically do not participate in electoral politics [[^]](https://www.pasquarellaforcongress.com/)[[^]](https://goodparty.org/candidate/helena-pasquarella/us-house-of-representatives-california-24th-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article315012401.html)[[^]](https://www.santamariasun.com/news-2/political-watch/political-watch-march-19-2026/). Her campaign is associated with GoodParty.org and has received an endorsement from the Council on American-Islamic Relations [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Bacon)[[^]](https://goodparty.org/candidate/helena-pasquarella/us-house-of-representatives-california-24th-congressional-district). Specific details regarding Sarah Bacon's voter outreach strategies are not extensively provided in the available information, beyond her demonstrated experience in advocacy [[^]](https://www.noozhawk.com/meet-the-4-candidates-for-24th-district-congressional-seat/).

## What public polling data is available for the California 24th Congressional District primary, and how reliable has it been in past cycles?

Primary Election Date | June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481936) |
Incumbent Carbajal's 2024 Primary Vote Share | 53.7% [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salud_Carbajal) |
Prediction Market Favorability for Carbajal to Advance | 96% [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance-jun-02-2026/) |

**Public polling data for CA-24 primary elections is unavailable**

Public polling data for CA-24 primary elections is unavailable. No district-specific public polling data has been identified for the California 24th Congressional District primary. The reliability of past polling for CA-24 cannot be determined due to the district's historical lack of competitiveness, as it is consistently rated Solid Democratic [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481936)[[^]](https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8fc789h9)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California's_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). For instance, in the 2024 primary, incumbent Carbajal received **53.7%** of the vote, while Cole (R) garnered **37.2%** and Pasquarella **9.1%**. Carbajal subsequently won the general election with **62.7%** of the vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salud_Carbajal)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(March_5_top-two_primary)).

The 2026 primary is scheduled, with top candidates expected to advance. The primary election for California's 24th Congressional District is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with the filing deadline set for March 6, 2026. According to election rules, the top two candidates from the primary will advance to the general election [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481936)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Current prediction markets indicate a high likelihood for incumbent Carbajal (**96%**) and Bob Smith (**94%**) to advance from the primary contest [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance-jun-02-2026/).

## What evidence from past electoral performance and media coverage indicates the viability of Sarah Bacon's challenge to the incumbent?

Sarah Bacon primary advance chance | 7.1% (prediction market) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-2426) |
Salud Carbajal primary advance chance | ~95.8% (prediction market) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-2426) |
Salud Carbajal 2016 general election win | about 53.4% of the vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salud_Carbajal)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/Salud_Carbajal) |

**Sarah Bacon's challenge to the incumbent shows very low viability**

Sarah Bacon's challenge to the incumbent shows very low viability. This assessment is primarily based on prediction **market** pricing. Estimates indicate that Sarah Bacon has an approximate **7.1%** chance of advancing from the CA-24 primary, whereas the incumbent, Salud Carbajal, has an estimated chance of **95.8%** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-2426). Sarah Bacon is identified through FEC data as a challenger candidate for the CA-24 House District 24 in the 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA24352/).

Incumbent Salud Carbajal demonstrates strong electoral performance and institutional support. He has a demonstrated history of converting strong primary finishes into successful general election outcomes. For example, in 2016, he won the general election with approximately **53.4%** of the vote after finishing first in the primary [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salud_Carbajal)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/Salud_Carbajal). Local reporting on Carbajal's past challengers also highlighted his "massive institutional support" from Santa Barbara County Democrats, suggesting that challengers typically face an uphill battle [[^]](https://www.noozhawk.com/thomas-cole-challenges-salud-carbajal-for-24th-congressional-district/)[[^]](https://www.noozhawk.com/salud-carbajal-faces-challenge-from-thomas-cole-helena-pasquarella-for-congressional-seat/). The available research does not provide additional competitiveness metrics for Sarah Bacon, such as past electoral performance or media coverage, that would suggest strong viability for her challenge [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA24352/).

## How might California's top-two primary system affect strategic voting or candidate consolidation among the challengers before the June 2, 2026 election?

Primary System Impact | Leads to strategic voting and candidate consolidation [[^]](https://ocvote.gov/voting/top-two-primary) |
Candidate Behavior | Can trigger a “scramble” or consolidation among candidates [[^]](https://www.calrcv.org/news-and-updates/playing-games-with-california's-top-two-primary) |
Electoral Outcome | Increases competition and alters electoral behavior [[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/state-politics-and-policy-quarterly/article/participation-and-competition-in-toptwo-elections-tradeoffs-in-election-reform/C853759B1B596B91619DBE301B78D3DF) |

**California's top-two primary encourages strategic voting and candidate consolidation**

California's top-two primary encourages strategic voting and candidate consolidation. This system advances only the two highest vote-getters to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, thereby creating "top-two cutoff" incentives [[^]](https://ocvote.gov/voting/top-two-primary). This structure promotes vote consolidation and strategic coordination among both voters and candidates [[^]](https://ocvote.gov/voting/top-two-primary). Commentary suggests that this can lead to a "scramble" or consolidation among candidates once their path to securing one of the top two spots becomes apparent, potentially involving pressure for some to withdraw to allow a rival to block a more formidable general-election opponent [[^]](https://www.calrcv.org/news-and-updates/playing-games-with-california's-top-two-primary).

The system enhances competition and modifies electoral behavior significantly. Political science research on California's top-two primary highlights its capacity to increase competition and alter how elections function [[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/state-politics-and-policy-quarterly/article/participation-and-competition-in-toptwo-elections-tradeoffs-in-election-reform/C853759B1B596B91619DBE301B78D3DF). The unique possibility of same-party matchups in the general election under this system introduces distinct incentives for participation and competitiveness, differentiating it from the state's previous partisan-primary structure [[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/state-politics-and-policy-quarterly/article/participation-and-competition-in-toptwo-elections-tradeoffs-in-election-reform/C853759B1B596B91619DBE301B78D3DF).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Upcoming election deadlines will serve as critical catalysts for the California's 24th Congressional District primary election.** The nonpartisan top-two primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. Key voter deadlines include May 18, 2026, for the last day to register to vote, and May 23, 2026, when vote centers officially open [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California's_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections)[[^]](https://bakersfieldnow.com/elections/election-coverage/key-dates-and-deadlines-in-california-primary-election). As these dates approach, campaign activities are likely to intensify, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate performance.

**Current prediction market probabilities show Salud Carbajal with a 95.8% chance of advancing and Bob Smith with a 94.0% chance, while Sarah Bacon has a 7.1% probability [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-2426).** Any significant changes in these **market** probabilities, perhaps driven by new campaign announcements, debates, endorsements, or shifting public opinion, would signal important developments. A substantial movement in these odds could indicate a shift in the perceived likelihood of a candidate's success, making these **market** indicators key to watch [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-2426).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Upcoming election deadlines will serve as critical catalysts for the California's 24th Congressional District primary election.
- The nonpartisan top-two primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026.
- Key voter deadlines include May 18, 2026, for the last day to register to vote, and May 23, 2026, when vote centers officially open [^] [^] [^] .
- As these dates approach, campaign activities are likely to intensify, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate performance.

## Related Research Reports

- [Which party will win the U.S. House?](/markets/elections/us-elections/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-house/)
- [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/)
- [Arizona Governor winner?](/markets/elections/us-elections/arizona-governor-winner/)
- [California Governor winner? (Party)](/markets/elections/us-elections/california-governor-winner-party/)

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/ca-24-primary-who-will-advance
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.