# South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

In 2026

Updated: August 15, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Darline Graham is most likely to win the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Darline Graham appears favored despite limited new runoff data.** - Graham and Ralph Norman advanced in the August 11 special primary.
- The August 25 runoff has no reported endorsements from Mace or McMaster.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model estimates 91.4% for favored Darline Graham vs.** 86c **market**, implying 1.2x payout multiple.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Darline Graham | 86.0% | 91.4% | Darline Graham leads with strong support in current polling, making her the likely winner. |
| Ralph Norman | 14.0% | 5.6% | Ralph Norman remains a distant challenger, trailing significantly in available support. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Darline Graham | 86.0% | 91.4% |
| Ralph Norman | 14.0% | 5.6% |

- Expiration: August 11, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This contract shows a clear upward trend, with the probability of a 'YES' outcome moving from a starting price of 63.0% to a current level of 86.0%. The market experienced significant volatility, trading within a wide range of 39.0% to 92.0%. A key inflection point occurred around the August 11 primary. Before the vote, the price saw a sharp, unexplained 10.0 percentage point drop on August 6. Following the primary, the contract established a new support level above 80.0%, with the post-election peak of 92.0% acting as near-term resistance.

The primary driver for price action was the result of the August 11 special primary. On August 12, news reports projected Darline Graham had secured the top spot for the runoff, causing an immediate 11.0 percentage point spike from 67.0% to 78.0%. This momentum continued through August 14, with another 9.0 point jump to 91.0% as the market fully priced in the official outcome, which placed Ralph Norman as the second-place finisher. The primary effectively resolved market uncertainty, repricing the contract from a competitive race to one with a clear frontrunner.

Total traded volume of over 2.8 million contracts indicates substantial market interest. Volume appears to have been highest during periods of uncertainty, such as the price dip around August 8. The lower volume seen after August 15 suggests that conviction firmed up after the primary results were known, with less speculative trading. The current price of 86.0% reflects strong market sentiment that the leading candidate from the primary will win the subsequent runoff.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Ralph Norman

#### 📉 August 14, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 19.0% to 9.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of Ralph Norman's prediction market price drop was the official outcome of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary on August 11, 2026. The results, publicly known by August 12, revealed that no candidate won outright, and Norman placed second with 24.63% of the vote, advancing to a runoff against Darline Graham (32.71%) scheduled for August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html). This confirmed Norman had not won the primary directly, leading to a significant reassessment of his likelihood of being the eventual "winner" and causing the price decline by August 14, 2026. Social media was irrelevant, as no evidence of related activity was found.

### Outcome: Darline Graham

#### 📈 August 12, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 67.0% to 78.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point spike in Darline Graham's prediction market price on August 12, 2026, was the official news reporting of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary election results. On August 12, 2026, major news outlets projected that Darline Graham, having secured approximately 32.7%–33% of the vote, finished first and advanced to a runoff election against Ralph Norman [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://www.wbtv.com/2026/08/12/darline-graham-ralph-norman-head-runoff-special-gop-senate-primary-south-carolina-ap-projects/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). This confirmation of her leading position and advancement to the runoff, establishing her as the frontrunner for the nomination, coincided directly with the prediction market price movement [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://www.wbtv.com/2026/08/12/darline-graham-ralph-norman-head-runoff-special-gop-senate-primary-south-carolina-ap-projects/). Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity or viral narratives were found to have driven this price change [[^]](https://www.wonderwall.com/politics/lindsey-graham-sister-darline-odds-permanently-replacing-south-carolina-special-primary-poll/).

#### 📉 August 06, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 58.0% to 48.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research offers no evidence of Darline Graham experiencing a 10.0 percentage point drop in support related to a specific catalyst event on August 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4681391/south-carolina-senate-special-primary-results/). Instead, news reports describe Darline Graham as a leading candidate who advanced to an August 25 runoff following the August 11, 2026, special Republican primary [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://scdailygazette.com/2026/08/11/darline-graham-advances-to-runoff-in-special-gop-primary-its-unclear-who-shell-face/)[[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4681391/south-carolina-senate-special-primary-results/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary)). Given the absence of supporting information for the described market movement, the primary driver cannot be identified based on the available sources [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4681391/south-carolina-senate-special-primary-results/). Consequently, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noise for this unsupported market event.

## Contract Snapshot

This market determines the winner of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary. A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate will resolve to $1 if that candidate wins the primary, while a "No" contract for that candidate will resolve to $1 if they do not win. The market opens on August 25, 12:00 am EDT, with a maximum payout date of August 11, 2027.

## Market Discussion

No single winner emerged from the August 11, 2026, South Carolina Republican special Senate primary, as no candidate achieved a majority [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-senate-primary-lindsey-graham-df041787564cdbc3668ad8619aad557e)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff)). Consequently, Darline Graham, who received approximately 32.7% of the vote, and U.S. Representative Ralph Norman, with about 24.6%–24.7% of the vote, advanced to a runoff election scheduled for August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-senate-primary-lindsey-graham-df041787564cdbc3668ad8619aad557e)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff)).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Darline Graham | 86% | 87% | 86% | $4,181,870.18 | $1,494,758.23 |
| Ralph Norman | 14% | 15% | 14% | $2,143,862.08 | $1,001,447.72 |

## What does the geographic distribution of votes from the August 11 primary reveal about the core support bases for Darline Graham and Ralph Norman?

Darline Graham Vote | 32.7% (approximately) [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Ralph Norman Vote | 24.7% (approximately) [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/) |
Runoff Date | August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/13/rep-john-larson-becomes-the-ninth-u-s-house-incumbent-to-lose-a-primary-this-year-to-a-non-incumbent/) |

**Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary**

Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary. Held on August 11, 2026, this primary saw Graham and Norman secure the top two positions, indicating strong initial support among the electorate. Both candidates are set to proceed to an August 25 runoff election [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/13/rep-john-larson-becomes-the-ninth-u-s-house-incumbent-to-lose-a-primary-this-year-to-a-non-incumbent/).

Darline Graham demonstrated strong support across several counties, receiving approximately **32.7%** of the total vote [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). Her core support base was particularly evident in counties such as Allendale, where she garnered **48.3%** of the vote, as well as Beaufort, Aiken, Charleston, Dorchester, Jasper, Clarendon, Greenwood, and Lexington counties. This geographic distribution highlights a specific regional concentration of Graham's support [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary).

Ralph Norman's support concentrated in different upstate regions, securing approximately **24.7%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/11/us/elections/results-south-carolina-us-senate-special-primary.html)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/12/sc-special-election-results-republican-primary/91197616007/)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/). His strongest performances were observed in counties like Anderson, where he received **32.7%** of the vote, along with Greenville, York, Newberry, and Spartanburg [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). The distinct voting patterns suggest that Norman also commands a geographically focused base of support among voters.

## What do public polling and fundraising data released since the August 11 primary suggest about the potential outcome of the Graham-Norman runoff?

Darline Graham Primary Vote | 32.71% (August 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Ralph Norman Primary Vote | 24.63% (August 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Runoff Election Date | August 25 [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |

**Darline Graham is favored despite limited new data on the runoff**

Darline Graham is favored despite limited new data on the runoff. The August 11, 2026, special Republican primary for the late U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham's seat concluded with Darline Graham (**32.71%**) and U.S. Representative Ralph Norman (**24.63%**) advancing to an August 25 runoff, as no candidate achieved more than **50%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-special-elections/south-carolina-senate-results)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). Since the August 11 primary, no public polling or fundraising data has been released that definitively indicates the outcome of the August 25 runoff [[^]](https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumppraisesDarlineGrahamassheadvancestoRepublicanspecialprimaryrunoffinSouthCarolina/2d0bbd9954a546cb885b9736feb1dd59/video). However, Darline Graham is considered the frontrunner, a perception supported by her strong primary performance and consistent favorable positioning in prediction markets, which suggest high **confidence** in her eventual nomination [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-senate-primary-graham-norman-takeaways/article_c5dac8be-be4d-478f-8cea-d071cf678489.html)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676?r=cbpm).

Both candidates have received significant endorsements since the primary. Following the initial primary results, Darline Graham garnered endorsements from prominent political figures, including President Donald Trump, Senator Tim Scott, and former primary opponent Russell Fry [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-senate-primary-graham-norman-takeaways/article_c5dac8be-be4d-478f-8cea-d071cf678489.html). Ralph Norman has also secured support from notable individuals such as Nikki Haley and the Freedom Caucus [[^]](https://www.wistv.com/2026/08/13/endorsements-pile-up-graham-norman-sc-senate-primary-runoff/).

## Which endorsements from former primary candidates like Nancy Mace or Henry McMaster could significantly influence voter alignment before the August 25 runoff?

Runoff Date | August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_elections,_2026) |
Darline Graham Initial Primary Vote | ~32.71% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Ralph Norman Initial Primary Vote | ~24.63% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |

**No reported endorsements exist from Mace or McMaster for the Senate runoff**

No reported endorsements exist from Mace or McMaster for the Senate runoff. As of August 15, 2026, research indicates no documented endorsements from former primary candidates like Nancy Mace or Governor Henry McMaster specifically for either Darline Graham or Ralph Norman in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary runoff [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/16/lindsey-grahams-death-will-set-off-a-special-primary-election-for-a-senate-seat-thats-open-for-the-second-time-since-1956/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Henry_McMaster)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/04/rep-nancy-mace-becomes-the-eighth-republican-representative-to-announce-a-gubernatorial-bid-for-2026/). Therefore, the available information does not provide insight into how their endorsements could significantly influence voter alignment in this contest [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/16/lindsey-grahams-death-will-set-off-a-special-primary-election-for-a-senate-seat-thats-open-for-the-second-time-since-1956/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Henry_McMaster)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/04/rep-nancy-mace-becomes-the-eighth-republican-representative-to-announce-a-gubernatorial-bid-for-2026/). Nancy Mace is currently a gubernatorial candidate in the 2026 election cycle, and both she and Governor McMaster participated in a separate gubernatorial primary in June [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/16/lindsey-grahams-death-will-set-off-a-special-primary-election-for-a-senate-seat-thats-open-for-the-second-time-since-1956/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Henry_McMaster)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/04/rep-nancy-mace-becomes-the-eighth-republican-representative-to-announce-a-gubernatorial-bid-for-2026/).

The special Senate runoff election is scheduled for August 25. This South Carolina Republican special Senate primary runoff will feature candidates Darline Graham and Ralph Norman on August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_elections,_2026). The special primary became necessary following the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-special-primary-senate-lindsey-graham-666830ac225c8dbf1027d041d9e88b31). In the initial special primary held on August 11, 2026, Darline Graham secured approximately **32.71%** of the vote, while Ralph Norman received about **24.63%** [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). The victor of the August 25 runoff will proceed to face Democrat Annie Andrews in the upcoming November general election [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-special-primary-senate-lindsey-graham-666830ac225c8dbf1027d041d9e88b31).

## How do Darline Graham and Ralph Norman compare on key policy positions and endorsements ahead of the August 25 runoff?

Darline Graham primary vote share | 32.71% (August 11, 2026) [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Ralph Norman primary vote share | 24.63% (August 11, 2026) [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary) |
Prediction market favorite | Darline Graham (consistently) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676?r=cbpm)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-aug-11-2026/)[[^]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-11) |

**Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced to a Republican Senate runoff**

Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced to a Republican Senate runoff. Both candidates secured spots in the August 25, 2026, special primary runoff after neither achieved **50%** of the vote in the initial August 11 primary [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_25_Republican_primary_runoff))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary)[[^]](https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumppraisesDarlineGrahamassheadvancestoRepublicanspecialprimaryrunoffinSouthCarolina/2d0bbd9954a546cb885b9736feb1dd59/video). Darline Graham, sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has campaigned on her commitment to her brother's conservative agenda and has been praised by Donald Trump [[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumppraisesDarlineGrahamassheadvancestoRepublicanspecialprimaryrunoffinSouthCarolina/2d0bbd9954a546cb885b9736feb1dd59/video)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-senate-special-election-primary-results/). U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman emphasizes his "proven conservative" credentials and is characterized as a party hardliner [[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-senate-primary-graham-norman-takeaways/article_c5dac8be-be4d-478f-8cea-d071cf678489.html). Specific policy positions beyond these general conservative descriptions were not detailed in the provided information.

Graham led Norman in the initial primary vote. In the August 11, 2026, primary, Darline Graham received **32.71%** of the vote, while Ralph Norman garnered **24.63%** [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-08-11/south-carolina-us-senate-republican-special-election-primary). Following these results, prediction markets have consistently indicated a favorability towards Darline Graham to win the upcoming primary runoff [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676?r=cbpm)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-aug-11-2026/)[[^]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-11).

## What is the historical precedent in South Carolina for runoff election outcomes when an appointed incumbent is being challenged?

Historical Incumbent Runoff Win | 1941 special election, appointed U.S. Senator Burnet R. Maybank won Democratic nomination runoff [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina)[[^]](https://particle.news/story/darline-graham-and-ralph-norman-advance-to-august-25-gop-runoff-in-south-carolina)[[^]](https://newshill.org/name-power-meets-voter-pushback/) |
SC Primary Runoff Trigger | No candidate receives a majority of the vote, top two advance [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sanford_defeats_runoff_primary_challenger,_advances_to_general_election)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_Attorney_General_election,_2022)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Three_primaries_headed_for_runoffs:_South_Carolina_state_executive_primary_elections_review) |
Incumbent Advantage in Runoffs | Significantly reduced, sometimes approaching a toss-up scenario [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Analysis_of_incumbency_advantage_in_the_2014_school_board_elections) |

**South Carolina has a precedent for appointed incumbents winning runoffs**

South Carolina has a precedent for appointed incumbents winning runoffs. This occurred in the 1941 special election, where Burnet R. Maybank, serving as an appointed U.S. Senator and also an incumbent Governor, successfully secured the Democratic nomination in a runoff [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina)[[^]](https://particle.news/story/darline-graham-and-ralph-norman-advance-to-august-25-gop-runoff-in-south-carolina)[[^]](https://newshill.org/name-power-meets-voter-pushback/). He emerged victorious against former Governor Olin D. Johnston in that contest [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina)[[^]](https://particle.news/story/darline-graham-and-ralph-norman-advance-to-august-25-gop-runoff-in-south-carolina)[[^]](https://newshill.org/name-power-meets-voter-pushback/).

Incumbents face reduced advantages when forced into South Carolina runoffs. In South Carolina, primary runoffs are necessitated when no candidate receives a majority of the vote in a multi-candidate field, compelling the top two finishers to advance to a second round [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sanford_defeats_runoff_primary_challenger,_advances_to_general_election)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_Attorney_General_election,_2022)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Three_primaries_headed_for_runoffs:_South_Carolina_state_executive_primary_elections_review). While incumbents have historically shown varied success in these second-round elections, available data indicates that being forced into a runoff substantially diminishes their traditional electoral advantage, sometimes resulting in a near toss-up scenario [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Analysis_of_incumbency_advantage_in_the_2014_school_board_elections).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Prediction market catalysts for the 2026 elections include presidential approval ratings, economic performance metrics such as inflation and unemployment, and generic ballot polling [[^]](https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/2026-midterm-predictions/)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/).** Special election outcomes serve as real-time **market** repricing events [[^]](https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/2026-midterm-predictions/)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/). As of August 2026, prediction markets generally favor a split Congress, with forecasts assigning Democrats approximately 60-**80%** **probability** for the House and Republicans approximately 55-**60%** **probability** for the Senate [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/midterm-elections-tracker)[[^]](https://insidepredictions.com/news/2026-midterm-elections)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/).

**A key immediate event is the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff.** No winner was decided in the August 11, 2026, primary, as no candidate secured over **50%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/). The special primary runoff, featuring incumbent Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, is scheduled for August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-election-results-senate-darline-lindsey-graham-norman/article_04ac1472-f109-44d9-ba5a-a41e220c2909.html)[[^]](https://charlestoncitypaper.com/2026/08/14/graham-takes-top-spot-in-senate-primary-runoff-to-be-aug-25/)[[^]](https://www.counton2.com/news/your-local-election-hq/south-carolina-sets-special-election-timeline-to-fill-lindsey-grahams-senate-seat/)[[^]](https://wpde.com/news/local/timeline-for-replacement-of-republican-us-senate-general-election-special-primary-republican-partys-nominee-special).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 11, 2027
- **Closes:** August 11, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Prediction **market** catalysts for the 2026 elections include presidential approval ratings, economic performance metrics such as inflation and unemployment, and generic ballot polling [^] [^] .
- Special election outcomes serve as real-time **market** repricing events [^] [^] .
- As of August 2026, prediction markets generally favor a split Congress, with forecasts assigning Democrats approximately 60-**80%** **probability** for the House and Republicans approximately 55-**60%** **probability** for the Senate [^] [^] [^] .
- A key immediate event is the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 9 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXSCRSENS-26-MSAN: NO (Aug 12, 2026)
- KXSCRSENS-26-HMCM: NO (Aug 12, 2026)
- KXSCRSENS-26-TGOW: NO (Aug 12, 2026)
- KXSCRSENS-26-SBES: NO (Aug 12, 2026)
- KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY: NO (Aug 12, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

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