# Alabama Senate winner?

In 2026

Updated: September 9, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Senate

HTML: /markets/elections/senate/alabama-senate-winner/

## Short Answer

**Barry Moore is expected to win the 2026 Alabama U.S.** Senate race, reflecting the state's deep partisan lean and consistent classification of the contest as "Solid Republican" by forecasters; the **market** prices this at **97.9%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Since last update (~28d): The market for Everett Wess now exceeds the model by 0.4pp, as the model declined more.** - Barry Moore's **model** **probability** increased 0.9pp, with his **market** **probability** rising 0.4pp.
- Barry Moore's positive edge widened by 0.5pp, signaling stronger **model** conviction.

**- *   Republican Barry Moore is favored; Alabama exhibits a deep partisan lean.** *   Moore maintains a significant fundraising advantage over Democratic opponent Everett Wess.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Alabama's deep partisan lean and Barry Moore's commanding lead underpin the Senate **market**'s **98.5%** Republican win **probability**.

The selection of U.S. Representative Barry Moore as the Republican nominee for the 2026 Alabama Senate race corresponds with the market's primary move. This event resolved the GOP primary contest, solidifying the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Everett Wess. The contract price, which appears to track the probability of a Democratic victory, subsequently fell from a high of 5.3% to 1.5%.

The market is characterized by extremely low liquidity, with total volume at just 362 contracts. This suggests the price levels may not reflect broad conviction. The current 1.5% price indicates the market assigns a very low probability to a Democratic win in Alabama, an assessment that has remained stable since the post-primary repricing.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Everett Wess | 1.5% | 1.1% | A Democratic win is highly improbable given Alabama's strong Republican advantage and Wess's fundraising deficit. |
| Barry Moore | 97.9% | 98.9% | Barry Moore benefits from Alabama's deep partisan lean and a significant fundraising advantage. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Everett Wess | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Barry Moore | 97.9% | 98.9% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Contract Snapshot

For the "Alabama Senate winner?" market, a YES resolution for a candidate's contract is triggered if their respective party wins the Alabama Senate election, while a NO resolution occurs if their party does not win. The market specifically resolves based on the winning party. The election event is scheduled to begin on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout date set for November 3, 2027.

## Market Discussion

The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election features Republican nominee Barry Moore and Democratic nominee Everett Wess, following primary runoffs held on June 16, 2026 [[1]](https://apnews.com/article/alabama-senate-primary-moore-hudson-tuberville-ca2f49f1bb35afb20eab4f673e56ac99)[[2]](https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Alabama)[[3]](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/). Incumbent Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville announced he is not seeking re-election to the Senate in 2026, opting instead to run for Governor of Alabama [[1]](https://apnews.com/article/alabama-senate-primary-moore-hudson-tuberville-ca2f49f1bb35afb20eab4f673e56ac99)[[3]](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)[[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026). As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and forecasting models, including Polymarket and Decision Desk HQ, overwhelmingly favor a Republican victory in the election scheduled for November 3, 2026, with win probabilities for the Republican candidate consistently estimated between 95% and 96% [[3]](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)[[5]](https://polymarket.com/event/alabama-senate-election-winner-154)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/markets)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026)[[8]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election)[[9]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Sources:

1. [US Rep. Barry Moore wins Republican primary runoff for US Senate in Alabama | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/alabama-senate-primary-moore-hudson-tuberville-ca2f49f1bb35afb20eab4f673e56ac99)
2. [List of United States Senators from Alabama - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Alabama)
3. [Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashic](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)
4. [United States Senate elections, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026)
5. [Alabama Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/alabama-senate-election-winner-154)
6. [2026 Alabama US Senate Markets](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/markets)
7. [United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026)
8. [2026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Results](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election)
9. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Everett Wess | 1.5% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 7,375 contracts | 4,301 contracts |
| Barry Moore | 95.8% | 98% | 97.9% | 1,870 contracts | 1,611 contracts |

## What historical voting patterns and polling data support the consensus forecast of a 'Solid Republican' outcome for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Senate race?

Trump 2024 Alabama Win Margin | 30.5 percentage points (Donald Trump) [[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)[[2]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/) |
Barry Moore Implied Win Probability | 97-98% [[3]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)[[4]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[2]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/) |
Forecast Model Fundamentals Contribution | 73% [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |

**Alabama's deep Republican leanings strongly favor Barry Moore in 2026**

Alabama's deep Republican leanings strongly favor Barry Moore in 2026. The 2026 Alabama Senate race is widely forecast as a 'Solid Republican' outcome for Barry Moore, largely due to the state's significant structural partisan advantage for the Republican Party. This is notably evidenced by Donald Trump's 30.5 percentage point victory in Alabama in 2024 [[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)[[2]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/). Republicans have consistently held both U.S. Senate seats in the state since 2021, reinforcing the historical voting patterns that favor the GOP [[6]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/06/09/an-early-look-at-alabamas-u-s-senate-election-in-2026/). The 2026 election will be an open-seat contest, with Barry Moore having secured the Republican nomination after winning a runoff election on June 16, 2026, with **55.8%** of the vote [[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)[[7]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama)[[6]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/06/09/an-early-look-at-alabamas-u-s-senate-election-in-2026/)[[7]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama).

Consensus forecasts show a near-certain win for Moore based on strong fundamentals. Prediction markets and various election forecasts consistently assign Barry Moore an implied **probability** of winning between **97%** and **98%** [[3]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)[[4]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[2]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/). For example, Decision Desk HQ projects a 'Safe Republican' outcome, indicating a **96%** win **probability** for Moore and a projected margin of R+17 [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[8]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/senate). This strong consensus is largely driven by forecast models that attribute **73%** to fundamental factors, including partisan baseline, incumbency, the presidential party cycle, and campaign finances, with only **2%** stemming from polls and **25%** from prediction markets [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast). Further supporting this outlook, as of July 2026, Moore's campaign reported raising approximately **$5.79** million, which is significantly augmented by over **$16.4** million in outside support, substantially outpacing his Democratic opponent Everett Wess, who reported raising approximately **$83,341** [[5]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Sources:

1. [Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)
2. [2026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)
3. [Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)
4. [2026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edge](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)
5. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
6. [An early look at Alabama's U.S. Senate election in 2026 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/06/09/an-early-look-at-alabamas-u-s-senate-election-in-2026/)
7. [2026 United States Senate election in Alabama - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama)
8. [2026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/senate)

## How do Barry Moore's and Everett Wess's platforms on key issues like the economy, healthcare, and energy compare against Alabama voter priorities?

Forecast Rating | Solid or Safe Republican (Independent race forecasters) [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/13/rep-barry-moore-becomes-the-ninth-representative-to-announce-a-u-s-senate-bid-for-2026/) |
Prediction Market Odds for Moore | Often exceeding 95-97% (Kalshi and PredictIt, as of September 2026) [[2]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[3]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880) |
Barry Moore's Platform Focus | Conservative values; states he is not a "RINO" or "MAGA pretender" [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/Everett_Wess)[[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/13/rep-barry-moore-becomes-the-ninth-representative-to-announce-a-u-s-senate-bid-for-2026/) |

**Republican Barry Moore and Democratic nominee Everett Wess present contrasting platforms for Alabama's 2026 U.S**

Republican Barry Moore and Democratic nominee Everett Wess present contrasting platforms for Alabama's 2026 U.S. Senate election. Moore's platform emphasizes conservative values, and he has explicitly stated he is not a "RINO" or a "MAGA pretender" [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/Everett_Wess)[[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/13/rep-barry-moore-becomes-the-ninth-representative-to-announce-a-u-s-senate-bid-for-2026/). In contrast, Wess centers his platform on economic relief for Alabamians, focusing on issues such as rent, mortgage, gas, grocery, utility, and medical costs, while also advocating for broadband expansion [[5]](https://www.wvua23.com/news/u-s-senate-seat-spotlight-everett-wess-democratic-nominee/article_e4400741-004d-4281-80bb-e7208eda1d04.html). Wess, a lawyer and criminal justice advocate, has criticized Moore's loyalty to Donald Trump, suggesting it comes at the expense of constituent needs [[5]](https://www.wvua23.com/news/u-s-senate-seat-spotlight-everett-wess-democratic-nominee/article_e4400741-004d-4281-80bb-e7208eda1d04.html). However, Ballotpedia's 2026 Candidate Connection survey does not yet show completion by Wess, which limits public documentation of his specific platform details on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, or energy [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/Everett_Wess).

Direct platform comparison against voter priorities is currently limited by available research. The provided research does not include detailed information on specific Alabama voter priorities regarding the economy, healthcare, or energy, making it impossible to directly compare the candidates' platforms against voter priorities based solely on this data. Despite the absence of specific voter priority data, independent race forecasters have consistently rated the 2026 Alabama Senate general election as Solid or Safe Republican, indicating a significant Republican advantage in the state [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/13/rep-barry-moore-becomes-the-ninth-representative-to-announce-a-u-s-senate-bid-for-2026/). Prediction markets, including Kalshi and PredictIt, further support this view by overwhelmingly favoring Republican Barry Moore, with implied probabilities of victory often exceeding 95-**97%** as of September 2026 [[2]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[3]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880).

Sources:

1. [Rep. Barry Moore becomes the ninth representative to announce a U.S. Senate bid for 2026 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/13/rep-barry-moore-becomes-the-ninth-representative-to-announce-a-u-s-senate-bid-for-2026/)
2. [2026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edge](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)
3. [Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)
4. [Everett Wess - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Everett_Wess)
5. [U.S. Senate Seat Spotlight: Everett Wess, Democratic Nominee | News](https://www.wvua23.com/news/u-s-senate-seat-spotlight-everett-wess-democratic-nominee/article_e4400741-004d-4281-80bb-e7208eda1d04.html)

## How might the national political environment in Fall 2026, particularly the incumbent President's approval rating, impact voter turnout models for Moore and Wess?

Trump Approval Rating (early Sep 2026) | 41% [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-ends-august-with-41-approval-rating-congressional-approval-at-16/)[[2]](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Indexes) |
Trump Job Approval Rating (Sep 2026 lows) | As low as 33% [[3]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)[[4]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/)[[5]](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/us/politics/trump-polls-approval-rating.html) |
Barry Moore implied win probabilities | 96% to 98% [[6]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[7]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)[[8]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[9]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026) |

**President Trump's approval rating is low, challenging Republican midterm prospects**

President Trump's approval rating is low, challenging Republican midterm prospects. As of early September 2026, President Donald Trump's national approval rating stands at **41%** [[1]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-ends-august-with-41-approval-rating-congressional-approval-at-16/)[[2]](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Indexes). His job approval rating is near historic lows, hovering just under **40%**, with some polls reporting as low as **33%** [[3]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)[[4]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/)[[5]](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/us/politics/trump-polls-approval-rating.html). This low rating is primarily attributed to public frustration over high inflation and an unresolved conflict in Iran [[3]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)[[4]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/)[[5]](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/us/politics/trump-polls-approval-rating.html). These factors create a challenging environment for Republican candidates in the 2026 midterms, raising concerns that the Republican base might lack motivation to turn out for their candidates [[3]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)[[4]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/). National political analysts often associate low presidential approval ratings with potential voter turnout impacts in midterm elections [[10]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democratic-primary-turnout-has-soared-in-some-states-can-it-carry-over-to-november/).

Alabama's Senate race favors Moore despite Republican turnout concerns. While the 2026 Alabama Senate contest, featuring Republican Barry Moore and Democrat Everett Wess, is currently forecasted as Safe Republican [[11]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[10]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democratic-primary-turnout-has-soared-in-some-states-can-it-carry-over-to-november/), Barry Moore is a heavy favorite in prediction markets with implied win probabilities typically ranging between **96%** and **98%** [[6]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)[[7]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)[[8]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[9]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026). The low presidential approval rating primarily highlights concerns about turnout motivation for the Republican base and for Barry Moore specifically [[3]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)[[4]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/). The provided facts do not specify how President Trump's approval rating would directly impact voter turnout models for Democrat Everett Wess.

Sources:

1. [Trump ends August with 41% approval rating, congressional approval at 16% - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-ends-august-with-41-approval-rating-congressional-approval-at-16/)
2. [Ballotpedia's Polling Indexes - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Indexes)
3. [Trump's approval slump and candidate quality drive 2026 Senate...](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-approval-slump-and-candidate-quality-drive-2026-senate-races/)
4. [Trump's approval ratings endure a cruel summer - The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/)
5. [Trump's Polling Numbers Hit a New Low. Don't Expect Him to...](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/us/politics/trump-polls-approval-rating.html)
6. [2026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edge](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alabama-race-winner-by-party/)
7. [Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)
8. [2026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Market](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)
9. [2026 Midterms Prediction Markets — Senate, House & Balance of Power](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026)
10. [Democratic primary turnout has soared in some states. Can it carry...](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democratic-primary-turnout-has-soared-in-some-states-can-it-carry-over-to-november/)
11. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)

## What do the quarterly FEC filings for Barry Moore and Everett Wess indicate about their fundraising momentum and donor bases leading into the general election?

Barry Moore Total Raised | $5,787,768 (as of July 2026) [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |
Everett Wess Total Raised | $83,341 (as of July 2026) [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |
Barry Moore Cash on Hand | over $637,000 [[2]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL) |

**Barry Moore significantly outraised Everett Wess, demonstrating strong financial momentum**

Barry Moore significantly outraised Everett Wess, demonstrating strong financial momentum. As of July 2026, Republican candidate Barry Moore had raised a total of **$5,787,768** and spent **$5,161,818** [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast). His campaign was further bolstered by substantial outside support totaling **$16,416,708** [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast). Moore's recent quarterly fundraising amounted to approximately **$785,979,** leaving his campaign with over **$637,000** in cash on hand [[2]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL). In stark contrast, Democratic candidate Everett Wess had raised **$83,341** and spent **$94,747** by July 2026, resulting in a negative cash-on-hand balance of -**$1,395** [[2]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL)[[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Moore benefits from a diverse financial base, unlike Wess's individual donor focus. Everett Wess's fundraising was exclusively derived from individual contributions, indicating an absence of major PAC or organizational support [[2]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL). Conversely, Barry Moore has effectively utilized established party infrastructure and considerable outside backing, including contributions from groups such as the Club for Growth PAC. This suggests Moore's campaign draws from a broader and more varied financial base beyond just individual donors [[2]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL).

Sources:

1. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
2. [Alabama Senate Fundraising - Quiver Quantitative](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/AL)

## What potential 'black swan' events or campaign missteps before November 2026 could realistically challenge Barry Moore's commanding lead over Everett Wess?

Moore's implied probability | 96-98% (as of September 9, 2026) [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[2]](https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/16/barry-moore-wins-alabama-gop-nomination-for-u-s-senate-seat/)[[3]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama)[[4]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026)[[5]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880) |
State partisanship | Solid Republican state [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/) |
General election date | November 3, 2026 [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |

**Barry Moore holds a commanding lead in the Alabama U.S**

Barry Moore holds a commanding lead in the Alabama U.S. Senate race. Current prediction markets heavily favor Moore over Everett Wess, indicating an approximate 96-**98%** implied **probability** of victory as of September 9, 2026 [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[2]](https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/16/barry-moore-wins-alabama-gop-nomination-for-u-s-senate-seat/)[[3]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama)[[4]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026)[[5]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880). Given Alabama's status as a solidly Republican state, any realistic challenge to Moore's dominant position before the November 2026 election would likely require an event of unprecedented scale [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/).

Moore's lead could be challenged by major personal or political scandals. Such events typically include major, verified personal or political scandals involving the candidate, or significant unforeseen personal or financial issues [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast). Additionally, severe health issues experienced by the candidate could also pose a significant threat to his campaign and dominant position [[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Broader challenges could arise from catastrophic national or state-level crises. These crises might fundamentally shift the electorate's partisan baseline [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast). Other significant threats to Moore's position include a catastrophic collapse in Republican turnout that deviates significantly from historical trends, or major revelations surfacing in the final months leading up to the November 3, 2026, general election [[1]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)[[6]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Sources:

1. [2026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)
2. [Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP, Everett Wess wins Democratic...](https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/16/barry-moore-wins-alabama-gop-nomination-for-u-s-senate-seat/)
3. [2026 United States Senate election in Alabama - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama)
4. [2026 Midterms Prediction Markets — Senate, House & Balance of Power](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026)
5. [Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/alabama-senate-winner/6880)
6. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 Alabama U.S.** Senate race is an open seat contest following Senator Tommy Tuberville's decision to run for governor [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/). Republican Representative Barry Moore is favored to win the general election against Democratic nominee Everett Wess [[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026_(June_16_Democratic_primary_runoff))[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election). Forecast models give Moore a 96-**97%** **probability** of victory, rating the seat as Solid Republican [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[5]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488536)[[6]](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)[[7]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)[[8]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/). Major election analysts rated the general election as either Solid Republican or Safe Republican as of May 2026 [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/).

**National prediction markets price control of the U.S.** Senate as a near coin-flip, with Republicans holding a slight edge (roughly **52%** **probability** of retention) as of September 2026 [[9]](https://bellwether.market/guides/senate-2026-odds/)[[10]](https://kalshi.com/markets/controls/senate-winner/controls-2026)[[11]](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate). The 2026 general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [[12]](https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/calendar/)[[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026_(June_16_Democratic_primary_runoff))[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election). **Market** catalysts for overall Senate control include the competitive map of toss-up seats, unexpected polling shifts, incumbent retirements, and national indicators like the generic congressional ballot [[9]](https://bellwether.market/guides/senate-2026-odds/)[[10]](https://kalshi.com/markets/controls/senate-winner/controls-2026)[[11]](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate).

Sources:

1. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
2. [Barry Moore and Jared Hudson advanced from the May 19 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Alabama to the June 16 primary runoff - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/)
3. [United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 (June 16 Democratic primary runoff) - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026_(June_16_Democratic_primary_runoff))
4. [2026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Results](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election)
5. [AL Senate 2026 | Cook Political Report](https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488536)
6. [Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashic](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)
7. [Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)
8. [2026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)
9. [Senate 2026 Odds: Live Prediction Market Tracker for Chamber Control – Bellwether](https://bellwether.market/guides/senate-2026-odds/)
10. [Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/controls/senate-winner/controls-2026)
11. [2026 US Senate Control Odds & Analysis | Prediction Genius](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate)
12. [2026 Election Calendar: Primary and General Election Dates](https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/calendar/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate race is an open seat contest following Senator Tommy Tuberville's decision to run for governor [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/).
- Republican Representative Barry Moore is favored to win the general election against Democratic nominee Everett Wess [[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026_(June_16_Democratic_primary_runoff))[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election).
- Forecast models give Moore a 96-**97%** **probability** of victory, rating the seat as Solid Republican [[1]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[5]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488536)[[6]](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)[[7]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)[[8]](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/).
- Major election analysts rated the general election as either Solid Republican or Safe Republican as of May 2026 [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/).

Sources:

1. [2026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
2. [Barry Moore and Jared Hudson advanced from the May 19 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Alabama to the June 16 primary runoff - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/22/barry-moore-and-jared-hudson-advanced-from-the-may-19-republican-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-alabama-to-the-june-16-primary-runoff/)
3. [United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 (June 16 Democratic primary runoff) - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_2026_(June_16_Democratic_primary_runoff))
4. [2026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Results](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alabama-us-senate-general-election)
5. [AL Senate 2026 | Cook Political Report](https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488536)
6. [Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashic](https://akashic.app/forecast/senate/AL/)
7. [Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html)
8. [2026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls](https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/alabama/forecast/)

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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