# New Hampshire Senate winner?

In 2026

Updated: September 9, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Senate

HTML: /markets/elections/senate/new-hampshire-senate-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The Democratic party is likely to win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race, as nonpartisan election handicappers consistently rate the contest as "leaning Democratic" or "likely Democratic," with the **market** pricing this outcome at **84.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Since last update (~28d): Republican party model probability rose +7.2pp (model-led), widening its edge over the market.** - Democratic party **model** **probability** decreased by -7.2pp (**model**-led), also widening its edge.
- Overall **confidence** score improved significantly by +4.0pp, now standing at 9.0.

**Key takeaway.** - - Democrats likely secure the New Hampshire Senate seat, consistently rated "leaning Democratic."
- Recent polls, however, indicate a highly competitive race with alternating leads.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Recent polling showing alternating leads between Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu drives the New Hampshire Senate **market**, with Republicans at 17c.

This market's price action centers on the confirmation of the general election candidates in the September 8 primaries. The slight rise in probability from 14% to 17% occurred in the period leading up to the primary vote. This suggests the market was anticipating former Senator John E. Sununu's nomination for the Republican ticket.

The price held steady at 17% after both Sununu and Democratic Representative Chris Pappas won their respective primaries. The lack of a significant price move on the news indicates the outcome was largely priced in. A sharp increase in trading volume on September 9, the day after the results were confirmed, shows heightened market interest now that the head-to-head contest is set. The narrow trading range throughout the period suggests the market has a stable, low-probability view of a Republican victory, which the primary results did not materially alter.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican party | 17.0% | 19.2% | Recent polling indicates a highly competitive race with different polls alternating between leads for each candidate. |
| Democratic party | 84.0% | 80.8% | Nonpartisan election handicappers consistently rate the race as leaning Democratic or likely Democratic. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Republican party | 17.0% | 19.2% |
| Democratic party | 84.0% | 80.8% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the Democratic party wins the New Hampshire Senate race, and NO if they do not. Trading begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for November 3, 2027. The resolution is solely determined by the winning party of the election.

## Market Discussion

Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu **won** their respective nominations in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate primary elections held on September 8, 2026, to contest the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen [[1]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections-2026)[[2]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/08/politics/new-hampshire-primaries-results)[[3]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/chris-pappas-john-sununu-new-hampshire-senate-primary-winner-rcna596479)[[4]](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/new-hampshire-election-results-sununu-pappas-to-face-off-in-senate-race/4010722/).

Sources:

1. [Pappas, Sununu sweep to victory in U.S. Senate primaries | New Hampshire Public Radio](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections-2026)
2. [Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas will face GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race, CNN projects | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/08/politics/new-hampshire-primaries-results)
3. [Republican John Sununu and Democrat Chris Pappas win New Hampshire Senate primaries, setting up battleground race](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/chris-pappas-john-sununu-new-hampshire-senate-primary-winner-rcna596479)
4. [NH primary election results: Sununu to face Pappas in Senate race – NBC Boston](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/new-hampshire-election-results-sununu-pappas-to-face-off-in-senate-race/4010722/)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democratic party | 83% | 84% | 84% | 128,380 contracts | 88,401 contracts |
| Republican party | 16% | 17% | 17% | 248,108 contracts | 179,972 contracts |

## How do the campaign platforms of Chris Pappas (D) and John E. Sununu (R) compare on key issues for New Hampshire voters in the 2026 election cycle?

Pappas prediction market lead | 83% to 88% probability for Democratic victory (September 9, 2026) [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)[[2]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[3]](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate) |
Pappas primary advancement | Advanced to general election after September 8, 2026 primaries [[4]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[5]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/) |
Sununu candidacy announcement | Announced October 22, 2025 [[6]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/10/24/john-e-sununu-is-the-third-former-senator-running-in-2026/)[[7]](https://www.sununusenator.com/)[[4]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[8]](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary) |

**Chris Pappas (D) and John E**

Chris Pappas (D) and John E. Sununu (R) represent distinct political platforms for the open U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. Pappas is campaigning on principles of economic fairness, reducing costs, combating corruption, and fostering a freer and fairer society [[9]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/). Sununu, who announced his candidacy on October 22, 2025 [[6]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/10/24/john-e-sununu-is-the-third-former-senator-running-in-2026/), emphasizes common-sense governance, opposing government waste and tax increases, and prioritizing affordability and security [[7]](https://www.sununusenator.com/).

Both candidates secured primary victories, setting up a competitive general election. Following the September 8, 2026, primaries, Pappas officially advanced to the general election [[4]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[5]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/), while Sununu also swept to victory in his primary, notably receiving backing from Donald Trump [[4]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[8]](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary). As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets indicate a significant lead for Pappas and the Democratic Party, with **probability** estimates for a Democratic victory ranging from approximately **83%** to **88%** [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)[[2]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[3]](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate). However, polling data for a potential general election matchup between Pappas and Sununu suggests a highly competitive contest, with different polls showing each candidate in the lead at various times [[10]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[11]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026).

Sources:

1. [New Hampshire US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 6 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)
2. [2026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Market](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)
3. [Senate Markets - US Political Odds](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate)
4. [Pappas, Sununu sweep to victory in U.S. Senate primaries - NHPR](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)
5. [Takeaways from New Hampshire primaries where Sununu, Pappas...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)
6. [John E. Sununu is the third former Senator running in 2026](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/10/24/john-e-sununu-is-the-third-former-senator-running-in-2026/)
7. [John Sununu for U.S. Senate](https://www.sununusenator.com/)
8. [Trump-backed John Sununu wins New Hampshire Republican...](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary)
9. [Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire features competing ideologies between the two leading candidates - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/)
10. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
11. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)

## What polling data and historical voting patterns support the consensus 'Lean Democratic' rating for Chris Pappas over John E. Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?

Democratic Win Probability | Approximately 83% to 89% [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)[[2]](https://electionodds.live/category/senate)[[3]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[4]](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate) |
Pappas Polling Lead | 1 to 7 percentage points [[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2026/polls.php?class=2&fips=33) |
Pappas Campaign Receipts | Approximately $24.6 million (as of August 2026) [[7]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary)) |

**Prediction markets currently reflect a "Lean Democratic" rating for Chris Pappas in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race, indicating an implied Democratic probability of winning ranging from approximately 83% to 89% [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)[[2]](https://electionodds.live/category/senate)[[3]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[4]](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate)**

Prediction markets currently reflect a "Lean Democratic" rating for Chris Pappas in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race, indicating an implied Democratic **probability** of winning ranging from approximately **83%** to **89%** [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)[[2]](https://electionodds.live/category/senate)[[3]](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)[[4]](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate). This assessment is further supported by consistent polling data showing Pappas leading Republican John E. Sununu, alongside historical voting patterns in the state [[9]](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary)[[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2026/polls.php?class=2&fips=33).

Polling data consistently shows Chris Pappas leading John E. Sununu. Throughout early and mid-2026, hypothetical head-to-head matchups consistently show Democrat Chris Pappas leading Republican John E. Sununu. Multiple surveys place Pappas ahead by margins typically ranging from 1 to 7 percentage points [[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2026/polls.php?class=2&fips=33). While some surveys during 2026 indicated a statistical tie, Pappas has historically held leads in earlier polling and benefits from general Democratic strength in the state [[10]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/)[[11]](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/).

Historical voting patterns and campaign finance favor Pappas. Historically, Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010 [[9]](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary). Financial data as of August 2026 further shows U.S. Representative Chris Pappas with significantly higher total campaign receipts, approximately **$24.6** million, compared to John E. Sununu's approximately **$4.1** million [[7]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary)). The Decision Desk HQ forecast for the 2026 New Hampshire US Senate race, which blends fundamentals, polls, and markets, currently reflects a Democratic advantage [[7]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

Sources:

1. [New Hampshire US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 6 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)
2. [Senate Election Odds | ElectionOdds](https://electionodds.live/category/senate)
3. [2026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Market](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/senate)
4. [Senate Markets - US Political Odds](https://www.uspoliticalodds.com/markets/senate)
5. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)
6. [Election 2024 Senate Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2026/polls.php?class=2&fips=33)
7. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
8. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 (September...](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))
9. [Trump-backed John Sununu wins New Hampshire Republican...](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/new-hampshire-republican-senate-primary)
10. [Sununu Leads GOP Nomination, Ties Pappas for Senate](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/)
11. [Sununu, Pappas Frontrunners in 2026 NH Senate Race](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/)

## What are the key upcoming catalysts, such as debates or major endorsements, that could shift polling between Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu before the November 2026 election?

Democratic victory probability | 82% to 89% (as of September 9, 2026) [[1]](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up)[[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner) |
Polling status (August 2026) | Competitive general election with narrow margins [[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[5]](https://newsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[6]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary)) |
Pappas national endorsements | Kamala Harris and Senator Maggie Hassan [[7]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/) |

**Upcoming debates on key issues will shape the Senate race**

Upcoming debates on key issues will shape the Senate race.
Ongoing debates concerning economic policy, taxation, and the candidates' contrasting records are key catalysts that could shift polling between Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu before the November 3, 2026 election [[1]](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up)[[7]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/). Following the September 8, 2026 primaries, the race entered the general election period, with discussions focusing on these areas along with potential ideological differences [[8]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire)[[9]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)[[1]](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up)[[10]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/new-hampshire-senate-results)[[7]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/). Chris Pappas is described as a moderate Democratic incumbent, while John E. Sununu is characterized as a pragmatic, independent-minded Republican seeking to reclaim his former seat [[1]](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up).

Endorsements and current polling indicate a competitive, yet favored race.
Another significant catalyst involves endorsements from national figures, with Chris Pappas having received support from Kamala Harris and Senator Maggie Hassan [[7]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/). Recent polling data from August 2026 indicates a competitive general election environment, showing narrow margins between Pappas and Sununu and highlighting the volatility of the race as it moves into the final two months of campaigning [[3]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[4]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[5]](https://newsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[6]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary)). Despite these tight poll numbers, prediction markets as of September 9, 2026, assign a high **probability**, ranging from **82%** to **89%**, to a Democratic victory [[1]](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up)[[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner).

Sources:

1. [Pappas, Sununu Set for Toss-Up NH Senate Race - Legis1](https://legis1.com/news/nh-senate-race-pappas-sununu-set-for-toss-up)
2. [New Hampshire US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 6 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)
3. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)
4. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
5. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast | DDHQ](https://newsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
6. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 (September 8 Republican primary) - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))
7. [Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire features competing ideologies between the two leading candidates - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/05/democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-features-competing-ideologies-between-the-two-leading-candidates/)
8. [2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire)
9. [Takeaways from New Hampshire primaries where Sununu, Pappas...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)
10. [New Hampshire Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/new-hampshire-senate-results)

## Which pollsters have historically been most accurate in New Hampshire, and what is their polling release schedule for the Pappas vs. Sununu race through November 2026?

Prominent NH Pollsters | University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center and Saint Anselm College Survey Center [[1]](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[3]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=33)[[4]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=33)[[5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=33)[[6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls_TB.php?source_id=65&type=src)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026) |
Next NH US Senate Election | November 3, 2026 [[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire) |
Polling Release Schedule | No fixed public release schedule through November 2026 [[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[9]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026) |

**Two pollsters consistently lead New Hampshire statewide election accuracy**

Two pollsters consistently lead New Hampshire statewide election accuracy. The University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center and the Saint Anselm College Survey Center are recognized as the most prominent and consistent pollsters for New Hampshire statewide elections [[1]](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[3]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=33)[[4]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=33)[[5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=33)[[6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls_TB.php?source_id=65&type=src)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026). This includes their coverage of the anticipated 2026 U.S. Senate election between Republican John E. Sununu and Democrat Chris Pappas [[1]](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/)[[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire).

No public schedule exists for specific 2026 New Hampshire Senate polls. These reputable pollsters do not publish a fixed, public release schedule for their polls concerning the Pappas vs. Sununu race through November 2026 [[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[9]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026). Typically, these organizations release surveys periodically throughout the election cycle [[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[10]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/with-sununu-vs-pappas-familiar-names-will-compete-in-new-hampshire-senate-race)[[11]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire)[[12]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)[[13]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/10/24/john-e-sununu-is-the-third-former-senator-running-in-2026/)[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026). The frequency of these surveys often increases as the November 3, 2026 general election date approaches [[2]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)[[9]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[7]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[8]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026).

New Hampshire polling presents unique challenges, often yielding inconsistent results. This is primarily due to several distinct characteristics of the state's electorate [[14]](https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/polling-new-hampshire-primary). These factors include a high proportion of independent voters, a significant number of individuals who register on Election Day, and voters who tend to make their final decisions in the concluding days of the campaign [[14]](https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/polling-new-hampshire-primary).

Sources:

1. [Sununu, Pappas Frontrunners in 2026 NH Senate Race](https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/922/)
2. [2026 Polls: New Hampshire Senate - 270toWin.com](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire)
3. [Election 2024 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=33)
4. [Election 2020 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=33)
5. [Election 2012 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=33)
6. [Election 2024 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls_TB.php?source_id=65&type=src)
7. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 (September 8 Republican primary) - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))
8. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)
9. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
10. [With Sununu vs. Pappas, familiar names will compete in New... - PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/with-sununu-vs-pappas-familiar-names-will-compete-in-new-hampshire-senate-race)
11. [2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire)
12. [Takeaways from New Hampshire primaries where Sununu, Pappas...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)
13. [John E. Sununu is the third former Senator running in 2026 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/10/24/john-e-sununu-is-the-third-former-senator-running-in-2026/)
14. [Polling and the New Hampshire Primary](https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/polling-new-hampshire-primary)

## How might the national political environment, particularly presidential approval ratings, influence the outcome of the Pappas vs. Sununu race by the November 2026 election?

Status of 'Pappas vs. Sununu' race | Incorrect premise; John E. Sununu is not currently in a general election race against Chris Pappas [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026) |
Likelihood of Democratic victory | Likely to be won by Democrats (as of September 2026) [[2]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |
Prediction market probability for Democratic victory | 84% to 89% (as of September 9, 2026) [[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-senate-election-winner)[[4]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner) |

**The premise of a "Pappas vs**

The premise of a "Pappas vs. Sununu" Senate race in 2026 is incorrect. While Representative Chris Pappas (D) is indeed a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat, former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R) has not secured the general election nomination to run against him, contrary to the implied premise [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[2]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))[[6]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/04/17/two-candidates-are-running-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-in-2026/). Although some reports inaccurately indicated both candidates won their respective primaries, setting up a general election on September 8, 2026 [[7]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)[[8]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)[[9]](https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/videos/the-battleground-new-hampshire-senate-race-is-set-between-republican-former-sen-/1797946901519916/), current information explicitly states that John E. Sununu is not participating in a general election race against Chris Pappas [[1]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026). Consequently, there is insufficient information to detail how the national political environment would specifically influence this particular, unspecified contest by November 2026.

The national political climate currently favors Democrats in competitive races. The broader national political environment is characterized as challenging for Republicans, primarily influenced by the ongoing Iran war and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings [[8]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html). These factors significantly impact the competitive dynamics of various races across the country [[8]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html).

Current projections overwhelmingly favor a Democratic victory in New Hampshire. As of September 2026, the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election is projected to be won by the Democratic candidate [[2]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast). Prediction markets, observed on September 9, 2026, consistently indicate strong favorability towards Chris Pappas (D) to win the general election [[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-senate-election-winner)[[4]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner). The implied probabilities for a Democratic victory in this race range approximately from **84%** to **89%** [[3]](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-senate-election-winner)[[4]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner).

Sources:

1. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)
2. [2026 New Hampshire US Senate Forecast](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/new-hampshire-us-senate-general-election/forecast)
3. [New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-senate-election-winner)
4. [New Hampshire US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 6 Platforms | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/gemini/new-hampshire-us-senate-winner)
5. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 (September 8 Republican primary) - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary))
6. [Two candidates are running for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire in 2026 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/04/17/two-candidates-are-running-for-the-u-s-senate-in-new-hampshire-in-2026/)
7. [Takeaways from New Hampshire primaries where Sununu, Pappas...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/09/takeaways-new-hampshire-primaries-where-sununu-pappas-won-senate/)
8. [New Hampshire picks Pappas and Sununu in primary for key open...](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)
9. [The battleground New Hampshire Senate race is set between...](https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/videos/the-battleground-new-hampshire-senate-race-is-set-between-republican-former-sen-/1797946901519916/)

## What Could Change the Odds

**The New Hampshire US Senate primary concluded with Democratic U.S.** Representative Chris Pappas and former Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu winning their respective primaries [[1]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[2]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)[[3]](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/). They will face each other in the general election on November 3, 2026 [[1]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[3]](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/). This is an open seat, as incumbent U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) announced she would not seek re-election [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026). As of late August 2026, major election forecast outlets, including The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ, rated the general election as leaning or likely Democratic [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)[[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Democratic_primary)).

**Prediction markets for 2026 US Senate control are competitive, pricing GOP control at approximately 52 cents and Democrats at 48 cents [[6]](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate)[[7]](https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026/2026-senate-control-hinges-on-a-knife-s-edge-republicans-at-52-82f35c).** **Market** catalysts include incumbent retirements, toss-up state polling, the national midterm environment/presidential approval, and candidate recruitment [[6]](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate). Upcoming key dates for the remainder of the 2026 election cycle include Election Day on November 3, 2026, followed by the post-election certification period and the convening of the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027 [[8]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf)[[9]](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/the-2026-midterms-key-dates-and-events/).

Sources:

1. [Pappas, Sununu sweep to victory in U.S. Senate primaries | New Hampshire Public Radio](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)
2. [New Hampshire goes to the polls in primary for key open Senate seat](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)
3. [Sununu to face Pappas in New Hampshire Senate race](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/)
4. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)
5. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 (September...](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026_(September_8_Democratic_primary))
6. [2026 US Senate Control Odds & Analysis | Prediction Genius](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/which-party-will-u-s-senate)
7. [2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge… — 2026 Elections Predictions | SimpleFunctions](https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026/2026-senate-control-hinges-on-a-knife-s-edge-republicans-at-52-82f35c)
8. [Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Access](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf)
9. [The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Events • Bipartisan Policy Center](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/the-2026-midterms-key-dates-and-events/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The New Hampshire US Senate primary concluded with Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Pappas and former Republican U.S. Senator John E.
- Sununu winning their respective primaries [[1]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[2]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)[[3]](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/).
- They will face each other in the general election on November 3, 2026 [[1]](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)[[3]](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/).
- This is an open seat, as incumbent U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) announced she would not seek re-election [[4]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026).

Sources:

1. [Pappas, Sununu sweep to victory in U.S. Senate primaries | New Hampshire Public Radio](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-08/pappas-sununu-win-senate-primaries-nh-newhampshire-elections2026)
2. [New Hampshire goes to the polls in primary for key open Senate seat](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html)
3. [Sununu to face Pappas in New Hampshire Senate race](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/09/08/former-us-sen-john-e-sununu-to-face-us-rep-chris-pappas-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/)
4. [United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026)

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## Historical Resolutions

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