# Florida's 13th District margin of victory

Florida's 13th District

Updated: May 10, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/florida-s-13th-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Democrats, 2+ pts, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - FL-13 holds an R+5 PVI and "Likely Republican" rating.** - Incumbent Luna previously won district elections by 8-10 points.
- Recent Florida special elections showed strong Republican margins over 10 points.
- Leela Gray reported significant contributions in early 2026 for her campaign.
- Primary election is August 18, 2026; general election is November 3, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 25c overvalues 10+ pt Republican win compared to **19.2%** **model**, despite strong state-level GOP performance.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | The R+5 PVI, 'Likely Republican' rating, and incumbent's past wins make a Democratic margin challenging. |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 7.3% | 5.7% | A Democratic 5+ point win is challenging given the R+5 PVI and strong recent Republican performance. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 7.3% | 5.7% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price for "Democrats, 2+ pts" in Florida's 13th District has shown a significant upward trend, rising from a low of 2.0% to a current high of 25.0%. The market's defining movement was a dramatic 13.0 percentage point spike on May 06, 2026, where the price surged from 10.0% to 23.0%. This single event fundamentally shifted the contract's valuation, moving it from a low-probability outcome to one with a more notable chance of occurring. Following this spike, the price has continued to climb modestly, consolidating near its peak.

The specific catalyst for the sharp price increase on May 06, 2026, is not explained by the available information. While the district has a history of competitive races and has undergone recent redistricting, no specific news or event on that date is provided to account for the sudden re-evaluation by traders. The market has seen a total volume of 2,746 contracts traded. The sample data shows periods of zero volume, including around the time of the major price shift, which may suggest that significant price changes can occur without broad market participation. The current price of 25.0% acts as a resistance level, being the highest point reached so far, while the area around 23.0% has become a new support level. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and rapid shift in market sentiment, with traders now pricing in a much higher probability of a competitive race than they did initially.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 06, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 23.0%

**Outcome:** Democrats, 2+ pts

**What happened:** The provided web research lacks specific details about any social media activity, news events, or market structure factors that occurred on or immediately prior to May 06, 2026, which could explain a 13.0 percentage point spike for "Democrats, 2+ pts" in the Florida's 13th District prediction market. While the district is rated "Likely Republican" with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576), and Democratic challengers have launched campaigns [[^]](https://wsrz.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2026-02-03-democrat-leela-gray-launches-2026-challenge-to-rep-anna-paulina-luna/), no information available ties these or other potential drivers directly to the date of the market movement. Therefore, based on the given sources, a primary driver for this specific price movement cannot be identified.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 13th District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market, which opened May 5, 2026, will close after the official results for the November 3, 2026 election are published, with a projected payout 30 minutes later. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus that of the closest competing candidate, with no rounding, and the market can close early if certified results become available, but no later than November 3, 2027.

## Market Discussion

In the 2024 election, Florida's 13th Congressional District was won by the Republican candidate with a margin of 9.6% [[^]](https://www.rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=13&s=FL&t=H&y=2024)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024). For the 2026 election, prediction markets indicate Republicans are favored to win [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner), although Democratic candidate Karla Kemp is campaigning to flip the district [[^]](https://www.threads.com/@karlakempforcongress). A March-April 2026 poll suggested a tight statewide generic congressional ballot, with Democrats at 46% and Republicans at 45% [🔵Democratic: 46%
🔴Republican: 45%

MDW/Edge Communications poll | 3/27-4/3 LV
(Florida surveyed, 2026 races)">[^]](https://www.threads.com/@thedatanerd13/post/DXFZ_dGEfCz/new-generic-congressional-ballot-florida-democratic-republican-mdw-edge).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 24% | 25% | 25% | $2,746 | $1,412 |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | $1,420 | $532 |

## How do Anna Paulina Luna's and Leela Gray's fundraising totals and sources of funding compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Leela Gray Total Receipts (Feb 1-Mar 31, 2026) | $564,999.77 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/) |
Anna Paulina Luna Total Donations (Q1 2026) | Nearly $549,000 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/732640-anna-paulina-luna-piles-up-another-550k-for-re-election-run-in-2026/) |
Leela Gray Individual Contributions (Feb 1-Mar 31, 2026) | $534,999.77 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/) |

**For the 2026 election cycle, Leela Gray reported over $560,000 in early 2026 contributions**

For the 2026 election cycle, Leela Gray reported over **$560,000** in early 2026 contributions. Between February 1 and March 31, 2026, Gray's campaign accumulated total receipts of **$564,999.77** [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/). The vast majority, **$534,999.77**, originated from individual contributions, comprising **$475,290** in itemized donations and **$59,709.77** in unitemized donations. An additional **$23,000** was received from other committees, and **$7,000** came from loans. Notably, her campaign did not receive any funding from party committees or candidate contributions during this period [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/).

Anna Paulina Luna raised nearly **$550,000,** but detailed comparisons are difficult. For the first quarter of 2026, Luna's campaign brought in nearly **$549,000** in new donations [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/732640-anna-paulina-luna-piles-up-another-550k-for-re-election-run-in-2026/). Her receipts included a transfer of over **$252,000** from the APL Victory Fund, with individual contributions also forming a significant portion of her funding. However, a complete Federal Election Commission (FEC)-style breakdown of Luna's 2026 sources of funding is not provided, which makes a direct comparison of detailed funding sources between the two candidates challenging based on the available information [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/732640-anna-paulina-luna-piles-up-another-550k-for-re-election-run-in-2026/).

## What evidence from Florida's 2025-2026 special elections indicates whether Democrats are outperforming their 2024 presidential election benchmarks in districts similar to FL-13?

FL-6 Special Election Margin | R+13.95% (April 1, 2025) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Florida's_6th_congressional_district_special_election) |
FL-1 Special Election Margin | R+14.6% (April 1, 2025) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_1st_Congressional_District_special_election,_2025) |
FL-13 2020 Presidential Vote | 52.9% Trump, 46.1% Biden (on 2024 district lines) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024) |

**No direct evidence confirms Democrats are outperforming FL-13's 2024 benchmarks**

No direct evidence confirms Democrats are outperforming FL-13's 2024 benchmarks. There is no direct evidence from Florida's 2025-2026 special elections indicating whether Democrats are outperforming Florida's 13th Congressional District's (FL-13) 2024 presidential election benchmarks in comparable districts [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). The Polymarket query for “FL-13 House Election Winner” resolves for the 2026 general election, thus not providing a realized 2025–2026 special-election performance metric [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner).

Key 2025 congressional special elections demonstrated continued Republican strength. Florida's 2025 congressional special elections, considered the most comparable nationalizing contests, remained Republican. The April 1, 2025 special election for Florida's 6th Congressional District (FL-6) saw Republican Randy Fine win with **56.66%** against Democrat Josh Weil's **42.71%**, resulting in an R+13.95 margin [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Florida's_6th_congressional_district_special_election). Similarly, in the April 1, 2025 special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-1), Republican Jimmy Patronis secured **56.9%** of the vote while Democrat Gay Valimont received **42.28%**, a roughly R+14.6 margin [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_1st_Congressional_District_special_election,_2025). These results indicate Republicans winning by double digits, not Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential benchmarks with competitive winning margins in similar patterns.

Broader legislative special elections also show Republican resilience. Broader Florida legislative special elections held on June 10, 2025, further evidenced Republican resilience rather than Democratic overperformance against benchmarks. Republicans won State Senate District 19 (**54.4%** Republican vs **45.6%** Democrat), House District 3 (**67.1%** Republican vs **32.9%** Democrat), and House District 32 (**55.3%** Republican vs **44.7%** Democrat) [[^]](https://results.elections.myflorida.com/SummaryRpt.asp?DATAMODE=&ElectionDate=**6%**2F10%2F2025&Race=LEG). While MCI Maps reported Democratic "over-performance" in Florida’s 2025 specials, noting an average swing to the left of **17%** and overperformance ranging from **7%** to **15%**, the reviewed sources do not establish that this translates to outperforming FL-13’s 2024 presidential benchmark in comparable FL-13-like districts [[^]](https://mcimaps.com/looking-back-at-democratic-swings-in-floridas-2025-special-elections/). FL-13’s 2024 presidential benchmark is based on its 2020 vote of **46.1%** for Biden and **52.9%** for Trump on the 2024 district lines, and it was R+6 relative to the national average in both 2016 and 2020 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024).

## How might President Biden's national approval ratings and Governor DeSantis's state-level approval influence the generic ballot environment for the FL-13 race in Fall 2026?

Generic Congressional Ballot | D+6.1 (as of May 8, 2026) [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls) |
Gov. DeSantis Approval (FL) | 52% approval vs 42% disapproval [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/783199-desantis-more-popular-trump-poll/) |
FL-13 Prediction Market | 68% probability for Republican win [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner) |

**President Biden's national approval ratings are a plausible contributor to margin movement in the FL-13 race, shaping "presidential approval-driven generic forces" [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/)**

President Biden's national approval ratings are a plausible contributor to margin movement in the FL-13 race, shaping "presidential approval-driven generic forces" [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/). As of May 8, 2026, the national generic congressional ballot average stands at D+6.1, indicating a Democratic advantage [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls). However, Governor DeSantis maintains majority approval within Florida, with a 2026 University of North Florida poll showing **52%** approval against **42%** disapproval [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/783199-desantis-more-popular-trump-poll/). This state-level popularity may reduce the typical magnitude of presidential coattails working against Republican candidates in FL-13 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/783199-desantis-more-popular-trump-poll/).

Florida's 13th Congressional District presents as a competitive contest with conflicting partisan indicators. USPollingData's composite rates FL-13 as a "Toss-up" with a D+1 lean, recognizing its structurally Democratic-leaning geography [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/). Conversely, Ballotpedia reports the Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district as R+5, based on 2020 and 2024 presidential election results [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Consequently, even with a nationally Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment, significant anti-Republican or pro-Democratic coattails or turnout shifts are likely required to alter the district's margin [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

Prediction markets currently indicate a Republican victory in FL-13, suggesting the seat's resilience. A FL-13 prediction **market** (Polymarket) presently assigns the Republican Party a **68%** **probability** of being the leading resolution outcome [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). This outlook suggests that markets anticipate the Republican-held FL-13 seat will withstand the national Democratic generic environment. This expectation is consistent with the potential insulating effect of Governor DeSantis's state-level popularity or the district's underlying structural composition [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner).

## What public, non-partisan polling data is available for the Florida's 13th District race for the 2026 cycle, and how does it compare to internal or partisan polls?

Republican Probability | 68.5% (Lines.com) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-13-house-election-winner) |
Cook PVI | R+5 (Cook Political Report) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-13-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576) |
Expert Rating | Likely Republican [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)) |

**There is currently no public, non-partisan polling data available for Florida's 13th District race for the 2026 cycle**

There is currently no public, non-partisan polling data available for Florida's 13th District race for the 2026 cycle. However, prediction markets suggest a clear Republican advantage. Lines.com assesses the Republican **probability** of winning at **68.5%**, with the Democratic **probability** at **31.5%** [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-13-house-election-winner). Furthermore, Kalshi.com indicates that Republicans have a **58%** chance of securing victory by 4 or more percentage points, a **51%** chance by 7 or more percentage points, and a **42%** chance by 10 or more percentage points, as of May 5, 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl13r).

Expert analyses consistently rate Florida's 13th District as "Likely Republican." This assessment is shared by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)). The Cook Political Report further assigns the district a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+5, underscoring its Republican leaning [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-13-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576). The incumbent, Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R), won her 2024 reelection bid with approximately **55%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-13-house-election-winner).

## What voter registration and demographic trends in FL-13 support or challenge its 'Likely Republican' rating from outlets like the Cook Political Report?

Cook Political Report Rating | Likely R [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/custom_entity/482576)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576) |
Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) | R+5 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District) |
Incumbent's Last Election Win | 54.8% [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576) |

**FL-13 holds a "Likely Republican" rating for the 2026 House race**

FL-13 holds a "Likely Republican" rating for the 2026 House race. The Cook Political Report assigned this rating, though it also identifies the district as a potential Democratic target for an upset [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/custom_entity/482576)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576). This assessment is consistent with the district's Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+5 for 2026, which is calculated from the 2020 and 2024 presidential election results [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District). Further demonstrating Republican strength, the incumbent GOP candidate Anna Paulina Luna secured her last general election victory with **54.8%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576).

Demographic factors and statewide trends bolster the district's Republican lean. The district has a population of approximately 762,930, with about **8.7%** (around 56,849 individuals) identified as veterans [[^]](https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1213-congressional-district-13-fl/). This demographic often correlates with Republican support in right-leaning districts. Statewide, Florida's active registered voters as of March 31, 2026, demonstrate a clear Republican advantage, with 5,545,284 Republican registrants compared to 4,052,862 Democratic registrants [[^]](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party). However, the absence of specific district-level voter registration data precludes a direct assessment of local party trends that might impact the district's 'Likely R' rating or its potential as a Democratic pickup [[^]](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Significant catalysts for the Florida's 13th congressional district market include the upcoming election dates.** Ballotpedia lists the primary election for August 18, 2026, and the general election for November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). These events will directly impact the expected Republican versus Democratic vote spread, which is tradable on markets like Kalshi's "midterm margin of victory" offering [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl13r).

**The current base case, as observed on Polymarket's "FL-13 House Election Winner" listing captured on 2025-12-16, assigns the Republican Party a 68% probability and the Democratic Party 27% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner).** Any developments that shift this Republican-leaning base case, which typically translates to a higher expected GOP margin, would act as a key catalyst for the margin-of-victory **market** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Significant catalysts for the Florida's 13th congressional district **market** include the upcoming election dates.
- Ballotpedia lists the primary election for August 18, 2026, and the general election for November 3, 2026 [^] .
- These events will directly impact the expected Republican versus Democratic vote spread, which is tradable on markets like Kalshi's "midterm margin of victory" offering [^] .
- The current base case, as observed on Polymarket's "FL-13 House Election Winner" listing captured on 2025-12-16, assigns the Republican Party a **68%** **probability** and the Democratic Party **27%** [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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