# Squirtle Up or Down: 

| Squirtle

Updated: September 17, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: Collectibles, Pokémon

HTML: /markets/entertainment/collectibles/squirtle-up-or-down/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Squirtle is not expected to trade above **$27.82** by the **market**'s close on October 1, 2026, with the **market** pricing this outcome at **4.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Squirtle valuation trails Charmander, suggesting price may remain below $27.82.** - **Market** **probability** for Squirtle "Above **$27.82**" dropped 60pp following the launch.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

The Pokémon TCG 30th Celebration expansion, released September 16, 2026, drove the 60.0pp **market** **probability** drop for Squirtle.

The primary market movement, a 60 percentage point drop on September 17, 2026, has no identifiable catalyst based on available information. This collapse from 64.0% to 4.0% occurred the day after the Pokémon Trading Card Game 30th Celebration expansion launched, but research does not establish a causal link between the two events. The overall market shows a downward trend on low total volume of 1,086 contracts traded.

Earlier volatility in the month is similarly unexplained. A series of significant price spikes, including a 32.0pp move on September 3, a 38.0pp move on September 9, and an 11.0pp move on September 10, do not correspond to any specific news, announcements, or social media activity identified in the provided research. The market's sharp fluctuations appear disconnected from reported fundamental drivers.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $27.82 | 4.0% | 5.9% | Demand for popular Pokémon collectibles may support higher prices. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 5.9% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 4.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Above $27.82
- Edge: +1.9pp
- Expected Return: +46.3%
- R-Score: 0.19
- Total Volume: 1,087 contracts
- 24h Volume: 2 contracts
- Open Interest: 855 contracts

- Expiration: October 1, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 September 17, 2026: 60.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 4.0%

**Outcome:** Above $27.82

**What happened:** Based on the provided web research, there is no credible evidence supporting a 60 percentage point drop in a "Squirtle Up or Down" prediction market on September 17, 2026 [[1]](https://www.gonintendo.com/contents/62574-pokemon-jets-revealed-pokemon-go-partnership-announced-update)[[2]](https://www.nintendonewshub.com/news/mcdonald-s-japan-reveals-pokemon-30th-anniversary-collab-burgers)[[3]](https://techcravers.net/pokemon-pokeopia-update-fixes-the-infamous-tree-climbing-squirtle-bug/)[[4]](https://www.bricksup.co.uk/post/lego-pokemon-ditto-squirtle-gwp-40887-2026-movie-night). While a specific Squirtle card (#170 from the Korean Scarlet & Violet 151 set) had a documented valuation of $27.82 as of August 22, 2026 [[5]](https://guardiantcg.app/pokemon-kr/pokemon-korean-scarlet-violet-151/squirtle-170)[[6]](https://guardiantcg.app/pokemon-kr/pokemon-korean-scarlet-violet-151/squirtle-170/grade-comparison), September 2026 news regarding Squirtle centered on unrelated topics like new Pokémon Jets, earlier LEGO promotions, and software bug fixes [[1]](https://www.gonintendo.com/contents/62574-pokemon-jets-revealed-pokemon-go-partnership-announced-update)[[2]](https://www.nintendonewshub.com/news/mcdonald-s-japan-reveals-pokemon-30th-anniversary-collab-burgers)[[3]](https://techcravers.net/pokemon-pokeopia-update-fixes-the-infamous-tree-climbing-squirtle-bug/)[[4]](https://www.bricksup.co.uk/post/lego-pokemon-ditto-squirtle-gwp-40887-2026-movie-night). Therefore, without evidence that this price movement occurred, it is impossible to identify a primary driver from social media, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media activity is irrelevant as the core event itself is not supported by the available information.

#### 📈 September 10, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 45.0% to 56.0%

**Outcome:** Above $27.82

**What happened:** Based on the provided web research, there is no evidence to support an 11.0 percentage point spike in a "Squirtle Up or Down" market "Above $27.82" specifically on September 10, 2026 [[7]](https://www.pokevalues.com/card/squirtle-scarlet-and-violet-151-170)[[8]](https://poketrace.com/cards/squirtle-sv-scarlet-and-violet-151-Reverse_Holofoil). The specified price figure of $27.82 is noted as a general baseline for various Pokémon cards, not a specific threshold tied to a Squirtle market event on that date [[9]](https://outof.games/realms/pokemon-tcg/cards/neo-genesis/azumarill-002/)[[10]](https://cardnexus.com/en/explore/pokemon/neo-genesis/all)[[6]](https://guardiantcg.app/pokemon-kr/pokemon-korean-scarlet-violet-151/squirtle-170/grade-comparison). Furthermore, the available data does not substantiate the specific narrative of such a market movement [[7]](https://www.pokevalues.com/card/squirtle-scarlet-and-violet-151-170).

Therefore, without evidence that the described price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media activity appears irrelevant to this hypothetical event, as the event itself is unsupported by the provided information.

#### 📈 September 09, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 56.0%

**Outcome:** Above $27.82

**What happened:** The available research does not provide verifiable evidence for a "Squirtle Up or Down" market spike of 38.0 percentage points with a $27.82 baseline occurring on September 9, 2026 [5-16]. Therefore, identifying a primary driver for this specific movement is not possible. While Nintendo announced new "Pokopia" content featuring Squirtle sunglasses [[11]](https://www.serebii.net/news/2026/09-September-2026.shtml) and a different Squirtle Pokémon card saw a minor 11.4% price increase on that date [[8]](https://poketrace.com/cards/squirtle-sv-scarlet-and-violet-151-Reverse_Holofoil)[[12]](https://poketrace.com/it/cards/squirtle-sv-scarlet-and-violet-151-Reverse_Holofoil), these events do not correspond to the magnitude or baseline of the described market movement. Social media activity related to such a significant spike is not reported in the provided sources.

#### 📈 September 03, 2026: 32.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 44.0%

**Outcome:** Above $27.82

**What happened:** The available research does not identify a specific widely documented 32.0 percentage point spike for a Squirtle collectible on September 3, 2026, nor any direct social media activity or news announcement that would be the primary driver for such a precise movement [[13]](https://monstercardcorner.co.uk/blogs/news/weekly-price-movers-week-ending-6-september-2026). While the broader Pokémon TCG market experienced massive volatility in early September 2026, driven by anticipation of the 30th anniversary set launch on September 16, 2026, no specific event or social media post is linked to the reported Squirtle prediction market spike [[14]](https://www.gosugamers.net/entertainment/news/79190-pokemon-s-30th-anniversary-booster-packs-have-launched-spiking-concerns-over-queues-and-price-hikes). Given the absence of supporting evidence within the provided sources, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.

Sources:

1. [Pokémon Jets revealed, Pokémon GO partnership announced (UPDATE) | GoNintendo](https://www.gonintendo.com/contents/62574-pokemon-jets-revealed-pokemon-go-partnership-announced-update)
2. [McDonald's Japan Pokémon 30th Anniversary Burgers: Charma...](https://www.nintendonewshub.com/news/mcdonald-s-japan-reveals-pokemon-30th-anniversary-collab-burgers)
3. [Pokémon Pokéopia Update Fixes the Infamous “Tree-Climbing Squirtle” Bug – Techcravers](https://techcravers.net/pokemon-pokeopia-update-fixes-the-infamous-tree-climbing-squirtle-bug/)
4. [LEGO Pokémon 40887 Ditto as Squirtle: Movie Night GWP Officially Revealed | August 2026](https://www.bricksup.co.uk/post/lego-pokemon-ditto-squirtle-gwp-40887-2026-movie-night)
5. [Squirtle #170 | Guardian TCG](https://guardiantcg.app/pokemon-kr/pokemon-korean-scarlet-violet-151/squirtle-170)
6. [Squirtle PSA 10 vs PSA 9 vs Raw — Grade Comparison (August 2026) | Guardian TCG](https://guardiantcg.app/pokemon-kr/pokemon-korean-scarlet-violet-151/squirtle-170/grade-comparison)
7. [Squirtle 170/165 Scarlet & Violet 151 value and price | PokeValues](https://www.pokevalues.com/card/squirtle-scarlet-and-violet-151-170)
8. [Squirtle #007/165 Pokemon card price - SV: Scarlet & Violet 151](https://poketrace.com/cards/squirtle-sv-scarlet-and-violet-151-Reverse_Holofoil)
9. [Azumarill Price - Neo Genesis - Pokemon TCG - Out of Games](https://outof.games/realms/pokemon-tcg/cards/neo-genesis/azumarill-002/)
10. [Neo Genesis (NEO-GENESIS) All products — Pokemon Prices & Values - CardNexus](https://cardnexus.com/en/explore/pokemon/neo-genesis/all)
11. [Wednesday: Pokémon Champions - Version 1.2 Update - Serebii.net News](https://www.serebii.net/news/2026/09-September-2026.shtml)
12. [Prezzo carta Pokemon Squirtle #007/165 - SV: Scarlet & Violet 151](https://poketrace.com/it/cards/squirtle-sv-scarlet-and-violet-151-Reverse_Holofoil)
13. [Pokémon TCG Price Movers (September 2026): Top Gainers, Losers & Marke](https://monstercardcorner.co.uk/blogs/news/weekly-price-movers-week-ending-6-september-2026)
14. [Pokémon's 30th anniversary booster packs have launched, raising concerns over queues and price hikes | GosuGamers](https://www.gosugamers.net/entertainment/news/79190-pokemon-s-30th-anniversary-booster-packs-have-launched-spiking-concerns-over-queues-and-price-hikes)

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the price of the Squirtle card is above $27.82, and NO if it is $27.82 or below. The maximum payout date for this market is September 30, 2026.

## Market Discussion

Prediction market platforms launched trading contracts in mid-August 2026, allowing users to bet "Up" or "Down" on the ungraded price of specific Pokémon cards, including Squirtle, by a set date [[1]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets). Trading volume for these contracts has remained relatively small, reflecting a mix of trader curiosity and market volatility rather than broad conviction [[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/en/news/beincrypto/3798476-polymarket-launches-predictions-market-for-pokemon-cards). While Squirtle is prominent in entertainment collectibles and internet culture [[3]](https://screenrant.com/pokemon-anime-squirtle-squad-meme-plushes-sdcc/), there is no evidence of a distinct trend or market specifically known as "Squirtle Up Down" outside of these prediction market contracts [[4]](https://www.imdb.com/hi/news/ni65362205/).

Sources:

1. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.io](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)
2. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards — Latest News | MetaTrader](https://www.metatrader.com/en/news/beincrypto/3798476-polymarket-launches-predictions-market-for-pokemon-cards)
3. [Pokémon's Greatest Anime Meme Is Making a Comeback With 1 Must-Have Collectible](https://screenrant.com/pokemon-anime-squirtle-squad-meme-plushes-sdcc/)
4. [Pokémon's Greatest Anime Meme Is Making a Comeback With 1 Must-Have Collectible - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/hi/news/ni65362205/)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $27.82 | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1,087 contracts | 855 contracts |

## To what extent are scalping and market speculation influencing Squirtle card prices versus organic collector demand following the Pokémon 30th Celebration TCG launch?

30th Anniversary Set Launch Date | September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaN1L_NlTL4/)[[2]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaOECzAkZCD/)[[3]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaVcLyFCELp/)[[4]](https://www.tiktok.com/discover/are-pokemon-center-etbs-out-for-30-celebration)[[5]](https://www.facebook.com/groups/706443976574007/posts/2010100929541632/) |
Prediction Market Outcome Example | July 2026 contract resolved as 'No' with 94% probability for Squirtle [[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[7]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai) |
Market Debate Focus | Speculative trading versus organic collector demand [[8]](https://www.elitefourum.com/)[[9]](https://www.cardsnpacks.com/)[[10]](https://news.northeastern.edu/) |

**The Pokémon TCG market debates speculation versus organic demand**

The Pokémon TCG **market** debates speculation versus organic demand. Following the global release of the Pokémon TCG 30th Anniversary "30th Celebration" set on September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaN1L_NlTL4/)[[2]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaOECzAkZCD/)[[3]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaVcLyFCELp/)[[4]](https://www.tiktok.com/discover/are-pokemon-center-etbs-out-for-30-celebration)[[5]](https://www.facebook.com/groups/706443976574007/posts/2010100929541632/), the **market** continues to navigate ongoing discussions concerning the influence of speculative trading compared to organic collector demand [[8]](https://www.elitefourum.com/)[[9]](https://www.cardsnpacks.com/)[[10]](https://news.northeastern.edu/). **Market** participants have expressed apprehension that crypto-linked or investment-focused entities are affecting prices, distinct from traditional collector interest, with these discussions extending to various cards, including Squirtle [[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[7]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)[[8]](https://www.elitefourum.com/)[[9]](https://www.cardsnpacks.com/)[[10]](https://news.northeastern.edu/).

Squirtle card prices are tracked in volatile prediction markets. Squirtle cards have frequently been the subject of active prediction markets, which monitor "Up or Down" movements based on specific ungraded price thresholds [[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[7]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai). Historically, these "Squirtle Up or Down" prediction markets have demonstrated high volatility and skepticism among participants. For example, a July 2026 contract related to Squirtle resolved as "No" with a **94%** **probability**, indicating the price did not achieve its specified threshold [[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[7]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai).

The research does not quantify specific speculative influences on Squirtle. While the conducted research details these general **market** debates and the historical behaviors observed in prediction markets, it does not quantify the specific extent to which scalping and **market** speculation influence Squirtle card prices in contrast to organic collector demand following the Pokémon 30th Celebration TCG launch.

Sources:

1. [EVERY Pokémon TCG 30th Anniversary product has officially been...](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaN1L_NlTL4/)
2. [POKÉMON 30TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION — FULL...](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaOECzAkZCD/)
3. [ALL 30th Celebration Products REVEALED! Here's the full release...](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaVcLyFCELp/)
4. [Are Pokemon Center Etbs Out for 30 Celebration | TikTok](https://www.tiktok.com/discover/are-pokemon-center-etbs-out-for-30-celebration)
5. [Tomorrow kicks off the 30th anniversary of Pokémon & we're...](https://www.facebook.com/groups/706443976574007/posts/2010100929541632/)
6. [Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)
7. [Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AI](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)
8. [Is this the greatest PokemonTCG bubble ever? A first-...](https://www.elitefourum.com/)
9. [Pokémon TCG Market Trends 2020-2026](https://www.cardsnpacks.com/)
10. [Inside the Pokémon Card Gold Rush. Should You Invest?](https://news.northeastern.edu/)

## What is the historical price performance of benchmark Squirtle trading cards, such as the Base Set original and recent reprints, leading into Q4 2026?

Squirtle Card Price Threshold | $31.54 (July 2026 contract settlement) [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[2]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai) |
Scarlet & Violet 151 (170/165) Increase | Up 778% (certain points in 2026) [[3]](https://www.pokemonwizard.com/) |
Mega Evolution Sets Decline | -8.9% (September 2026) [[3]](https://www.pokemonwizard.com/) |

**Squirtle trading card prices show variable performance leading into Q4 2026**

Squirtle trading card prices show variable performance leading into Q4 2026. Leading into Q4 2026, benchmark Squirtle trading cards have demonstrated variable historical price performance. Prediction markets on Kalshi in September 2026 featured "Up or Down" contracts for Squirtle trading cards, with a July 2026 contract settling to 'No', indicating that prices remained below the target threshold of **$31.54** [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)[[2]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai). However, available information does not provide specific historical price performance details for the "Base Set original" Squirtle card for this period.

Contemporary Squirtle variants achieved significant gains amidst a mixed **market**. While specific data for the original Base Set Squirtle is not detailed, contemporary Squirtle card variants have experienced notable **market** activity. For instance, the Scarlet & Violet 151 (170/165) illustration rare variant showed sharp percentage increases, being up **778%** at certain points in 2026 [[3]](https://www.pokemonwizard.com/). Base sets continue to be recognized as staple collectibles within the broader **market**. The overall Pokémon TCG **market** in Q3 2026 presented mixed performance; although some cards maintained steady valuations, newer expansion sets, such as Mega Evolution sets, experienced price fluctuations and declines of -**8.9%** in September 2026 [[3]](https://www.pokemonwizard.com/).

Sources:

1. [Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)
2. [Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AI](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)
3. [Wartortle Card Prices & Value 2026 | 34 Cards Ranked](https://www.pokemonwizard.com/)

## How does the secondary market valuation for Squirtle collectibles compare to that of the other Kanto starters, Bulbasaur and Charmander, in late 2026?

Charmander Target Valuation | $38.92 (August 2026) [[1]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai) |
Squirtle Target Valuation | $26.82 (August 2026) [[1]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai) |
Bulbasaur Target Valuation | $27.23 (August 2026) [[1]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai) |

**Charmander's valuation significantly surpassed Squirtle and Bulbasaur in late 2026**

Charmander's valuation significantly surpassed Squirtle and Bulbasaur in late 2026. In August 2026, prediction markets indicated that Charmander held a considerably higher secondary **market** valuation compared to both Squirtle and Bulbasaur. Charmander's target threshold was **$38.92**, notably above Squirtle's **$26.82** and Bulbasaur's **$27.23** [[1]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai). This data suggests Charmander's valuation benchmark was significantly greater than the other two Kanto starters [[1]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai).

Squirtle's secondary **market** value remained below **$31.54**. Further analysis of prediction markets in July 2026 indicated that Squirtle's price was unlikely to exceed **$31.54**. A prediction **market** concerning whether Squirtle's price would surpass this figure concluded with a 'No' at **94%** **confidence** [[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu). This outcome suggested that Squirtle's secondary **market** value was trading below the **$31.54** mark during that period [[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu).

Sources:

1. [Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AI](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)
2. [Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)

## Which data platforms, such as TCGPlayer or PriceCharting, provide the most reliable pricing data for Pokémon cards in 2026?

Primary Pricing Source (2026) | TCGPlayer [[1]](https://pokescope.app/)[[2]](https://www.pricecharting.com/)[[3]](https://www.tcgplayer.com/) |
Prediction Market Resolution Platform | Collectr [[1]](https://pokescope.app/)[[4]](https://thecardshopfinder.com/)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu) |
Kalshi 'Squirtle Up or Down' Resolution | Collectr ungraded price (July 2026) [[6]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu) |

**For 2026, TCGPlayer is a primary source for Pokémon card pricing**

For 2026, TCGPlayer is a primary source for Pokémon card pricing. This platform is widely recognized as a standard, often integrated by third-party aggregators with data from eBay sold listings, auction results, and other sources to furnish comprehensive **market** values [[1]](https://pokescope.app/)[[2]](https://www.pricecharting.com/)[[3]](https://www.tcgplayer.com/).

Collectr is a reliable platform for resolving price-based betting markets. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, specifically use Collectr as a dependable data source to settle wagers tied to the prices of particular Pokémon cards [[1]](https://pokescope.app/)[[4]](https://thecardshopfinder.com/)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu). An illustration of this is Kalshi’s 'Squirtle Up or Down' prediction **market**, which references the ungraded card price listed on the Collectr platform for its resolution; this **market** previously resolved to 'No' for the July 2026 period based on its predetermined threshold [[6]](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu).

Sources:

1. [Pokemon Card Worth Checker - How Much Are Your...](https://pokescope.app/)
2. [Free Ungraded & PSA, Trading Card Price Guide](https://www.pricecharting.com/)
3. [The Biggest Price Spikes in Pokémon this Week - 04/29/2026](https://www.tcgplayer.com/)
4. [Where to Buy Pokémon Cards 2026: Every Channel...](https://thecardshopfinder.com/)
5. [Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kxpokemon-26julsqu)
6. [Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AI](https://www.predictionnewsnetwork.com/p/kalshi-dsa-trump-ufc-chinese-ai)

## What do early pull rates and graded population reports for the 30th Celebration expansion suggest about the supply of key Squirtle cards?

Expansion Release Date | September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://press.pokemon.com/en/MEDIA-ALERT-Pokemon-Trading-Card-Game-30th-Celebration-Expansion-Launc)[[2]](https://www.pokemon.com/us/news/get-ready-for-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)[[3]](https://www.pokemon.com/uk/news/see-legendary-pokemon-and-more-from-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration) |
Standard Card Pull Rate | Over 40% of packs contain only the guaranteed Pikachu [[4]](https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration-pull-rates)[[5]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)[[6]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pack-calculator) |
Graded Population Reports | Currently statistically negligible [[7]](https://tcgscreener.com/guide/pokemon-30th-celebration)[[5]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)[[8]](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-pull-rates-what-is-confirmed) |

**The Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration expansion launched globally on September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://press.pokemon.com/en/MEDIA-ALERT-Pokemon-Trading-Card-Game-30th-Celebration-Expansion-Launc)[[2]](https://www.pokemon.com/us/news/get-ready-for-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)[[3]](https://www.pokemon.com/uk/news/see-legendary-pokemon-and-more-from-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)**

The Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration expansion launched globally on September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://press.pokemon.com/en/MEDIA-ALERT-Pokemon-Trading-Card-Game-30th-Celebration-Expansion-Launc)[[2]](https://www.pokemon.com/us/news/get-ready-for-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)[[3]](https://www.pokemon.com/uk/news/see-legendary-pokemon-and-more-from-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration). This expansion includes Squirtle cards, specifically a promotional card (003/30th-P) and references to the first-partner trio in associated product sets [[9]](https://www.pokecardex.com/en/carte/chn/10750)[[10]](https://www.tcgcollector.com/cards/59256/squirtle-30th-anniversay-celebration-003-30th-p)[[11]](https://eyevotcg.com/cn/cards/30th-anniversary-celebration-simplified-chinese-squirtle/)[[12]](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-card-set-27-starter-promos-checklist). However, Squirtle is not classified as a headline rarity, unlike the Futuristic Rares found in the main expansion [[9]](https://www.pokecardex.com/en/carte/chn/10750)[[10]](https://www.tcgcollector.com/cards/59256/squirtle-30th-anniversay-celebration-003-30th-p)[[11]](https://eyevotcg.com/cn/cards/30th-anniversary-celebration-simplified-chinese-squirtle/)[[12]](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-card-set-27-starter-promos-checklist).

Early pull rate analysis indicates a high supply for standard-rarity cards within the expansion. Over **40%** of packs contained only the guaranteed Pikachu, suggesting a similar trend for key Squirtle cards given their classification within the standard rarity pool [[4]](https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration-pull-rates)[[5]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)[[6]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pack-calculator). This analysis points towards a potentially high **market** supply for these Squirtle cards.

Graded population reports are not yet available to offer insight into verified supply. Due to the expansion's recent release date, graded population reports are currently non-existent or statistically negligible [[7]](https://tcgscreener.com/guide/pokemon-30th-celebration)[[5]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)[[8]](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-pull-rates-what-is-confirmed). Consequently, **market** sentiment regarding these Squirtle cards is driven by factors such as unverified leakage, pull-rate speculation, and pre-order pricing, rather than official, verified supply data from graded cards [[7]](https://tcgscreener.com/guide/pokemon-30th-celebration)[[5]](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)[[8]](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-pull-rates-what-is-confirmed).

Sources:

1. ["MEDIA ALERT: Pokémon Trading Card Game: 30th Celebration Expansion Launches Today, Commemorating 30 Years of Pokémon" - The Pokémon Company North America Official Press Site](https://press.pokemon.com/en/MEDIA-ALERT-Pokemon-Trading-Card-Game-30th-Celebration-Expansion-Launc)
2. [Get Ready for Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration](https://www.pokemon.com/us/news/get-ready-for-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)
3. [See Legendary Pokémon and More from Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration](https://www.pokemon.com/uk/news/see-legendary-pokemon-and-more-from-pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration)
4. [30th Celebration Pull Rates - Pokemon TCG - DigitalTQ](https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg-30th-celebration-pull-rates)
5. [Pokémon 30th Anniversary Pull Rates & Pack Odds — 267 Packs of Early Leak Data (2026)](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pull-rates)
6. [Pokémon 30th Anniversary Pack Odds Calculator — Your Chance of Pulling an SIR, IR or FUR (2026)](https://tcgtalk.com/guides/30th-anniversary-pack-calculator)
7. [Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration Release Date, Cards & Products](https://tcgscreener.com/guide/pokemon-30th-celebration)
8. [30th Celebration Pull Rates: What Is Confirmed (2026)](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-pull-rates-what-is-confirmed)
9. [Squirtle (30th Anniversary Celebration 003/30th-P) | PokéCardex](https://www.pokecardex.com/en/carte/chn/10750)
10. [Squirtle (30th Anniversay Celebration 003/30th-P) (Chinese TCG) – TCG Collector](https://www.tcgcollector.com/cards/59256/squirtle-30th-anniversay-celebration-003-30th-p)
11. [Squirtle - 30th Anniversary Celebration Simplified Chinese | Eyevo - Pokemon TCG Scanner](https://eyevotcg.com/cn/cards/30th-anniversary-celebration-simplified-chinese-squirtle/)
12. [30th Celebration Card Set: All 27 Promos Checklist](https://samuraiswordtokyo.com/blogs/news/30th-celebration-card-set-27-starter-promos-checklist)

## What Could Change the Odds

**"Squirtle Up/Down" prediction market contracts, launched in August 2026 [[1]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)[[2]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)[[3]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)[[5]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)[[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117), center on the ungraded price of the Squirtle Mega Evolution Promo card (Promo #039) [[1]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)[[2]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)[[3]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)[[5]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)[[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117).** Sentiment in these markets is driven by raw sales data, the performance of the broader Pokémon TCG **market** (vintage vs. modern), and liquidity within the ungraded promo card segment [[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117). Specific catalysts for these contracts include monthly card-show results, new Black Star Promo releases, and trading volume spikes on platforms such as TCGPlayer and eBay [[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117).

**Broader Pokémon franchise markets face additional catalysts in 2026.** These include ongoing 30th anniversary celebrations [[7]](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65719542/)[[8]](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65640767/)[[9]](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65591746/), the release of Mega Evolution — Perfect Order in March 2026 [[10]](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65650222/), and continued speculation surrounding Pokémon Gen 10 game release dates [[7]](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65719542/).

Sources:

1. [Squirtle Up or Down: | Prediction Markets - Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)
2. [https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)
3. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.io](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)
4. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)
5. [Polymarket Launches Pokemon Card Price Prediction Markets Today | Gate News](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)
6. [https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117)
7. [Pokémon Gen 10 Release Date Leak Leaves Gamers Torn - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65719542/)
8. [Pokémon Officially Kicks Off 30th Anniversary With New Teaser - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65640767/)
9. [New Pokémon Card Trademark Hinting At Massive 30th Anniversary Set - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65591746/)
10. [Pokémon Officially Confirms Massive March 2026 Release - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65650222/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** December 30, 2026
- **Closes:** October 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- "Squirtle Up/Down" prediction **market** contracts, launched in August 2026 [[1]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)[[2]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)[[3]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)[[5]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)[[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117), center on the ungraded price of the Squirtle Mega Evolution Promo card (Promo #039) [[1]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)[[2]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)[[3]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)[[5]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)[[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117).
- Sentiment in these markets is driven by raw sales data, the performance of the broader Pokémon TCG **market** (vintage vs. modern), and liquidity within the ungraded promo card segment [[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117).
- Specific catalysts for these contracts include monthly card-show results, new Black Star Promo releases, and trading volume spikes on platforms such as TCGPlayer and eBay [[6]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117).
- Broader Pokémon franchise markets face additional catalysts in 2026.

Sources:

1. [Squirtle Up or Down: | Prediction Markets - Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPOKEMON-26SEPSQU)
2. [https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118)
3. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.io](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0c96c-pokemon-cards-polymarket-prediction-markets)
4. [Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-launches-predictions-market-pok-212512366.html)
5. [Polymarket Launches Pokemon Card Price Prediction Markets Today | Gate News](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-launches-pokemon-card-price-prediction-markets-today-23499421)
6. [https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117)

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPOKEMON-26AUGTEAROCMO-359.62: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXPOKEMON-26AUGPHAFLABO-412.28: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXPOKEMON-26AUGMEGCHAYE-445.06: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXPOKEMON-26AUGMEGDRAEX-735.23: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXPOKEMON-26AUGPIKEX-1160.2: NO (Sep 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://www.octagonai.co/markets/entertainment/collectibles/squirtle-up-or-down
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.