# Will Johnny Depp be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?

Before 2035

Updated: April 8, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: Movies

HTML: /markets/entertainment/movies/will-johnny-depp-be-cast-in-the-next-pirates-of-the-caribbean/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Johnny Depp to be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Producer Jerry Bruckheimer publicly favors Johnny Depp's return.** - Film insurance costs for controversial actors are confidential and customized.
- Two distinct Pirates of the Caribbean 6 screenplays are in development.
- Discussions suggest Johnny Depp's potential return to the Pirates franchise.
- Disney reportedly targets a 2026 filming start for the next Pirates movie.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **50%** **probability** vs 48c **market** suggests 2.1x payout, with producer support favoring Depp's return.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Johnny Depp | 48.0% | 50.0% | Johnny Depp was the iconic lead for the franchise, generating significant fan demand for his return. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 50.0% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 48.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Johnny Depp
- Edge: +2.0pp
- Expected Return: +4.2%
- R-Score: 0.20
- Total Volume: $18,005
- 24h Volume: $56
- Open Interest: $9,546

- Expiration: January 1, 2035

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market indicates a prolonged sideways or range-bound trend. Since its inception, the probability has been confined to a narrow 10-point channel, trading between a low of 42.0% and a high of 52.0%. The market opened at 47.0% and currently sits at 48.0%, showing very little net change over 326 data points. This tight consolidation suggests a lack of a clear market consensus. The floor of this range at 42.0% has acted as a support level, while the ceiling at 52.0% has served as resistance, with the price consistently reverting toward the midpoint. As there is no additional context or news provided, the minor fluctuations within this range cannot be attributed to any specific external events.

The total volume of 1,400 contracts traded suggests a moderate level of interest, but the overall pattern points to low conviction among participants. The sideways price action, coupled with periods of low trading volume, indicates that traders are in a "wait-and-see" mode. There have been no significant volume spikes accompanying price moves, which would typically signal a strong reaction to new information. Instead, the market appears to be waiting for a definitive catalyst, such as an official announcement from the studio or Depp's representatives, to break out of its current range.

Overall, the chart reflects a market in equilibrium, characterized by deep uncertainty. The current price of 48.0% implies that traders see the outcome as a virtual coin flip. The sentiment is perfectly balanced between those who believe Depp will be recast and those who believe he will not. The lack of a directional trend and low conviction trading activity show that without new, impactful information, the market is unlikely to establish a clear directional bias.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if Johnny Depp is cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean film before January 1, 2035, based on reporting from specified news organizations including The Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, and others. If he is not cast by this date and time (January 1, 2035, 10:00 AM EST), the market resolves to "No." The market will close early if the casting event occurs, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Johnny Depp | 49% | 50% | 48% | $18,005 | $9,546 |

## Can Jerry Bruckheimer Bring Johnny Depp Back to Pirates?

Producer's Desire for Depp | "If It's Up To Me, He'll Be In It" [[^]](https://thedirect.com/article/pirates-of-the-caribbean-johnny-depp-jack-sparrow) |
Depp's Potential Willingness | Bruckheimer believes Depp would do it after discussions [[^]](https://geektyrant.com/news/producer-jerry-bruckheimer-gives-update-on-johnny-depps-return-as-captain-jack-sparrow-in-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6) |
Bruckheimer's Disney First-Look Deal | Ended in 2014 [[^]](https://deadline.com/2013/09/disney-and-jerry-bruckheimer-to-end-first-look-film-deal-in-2014-591681/) |

**Jerry Bruckheimer publicly favors Johnny Depp's return as Jack Sparrow**

Jerry Bruckheimer publicly favors Johnny Depp's return as Jack Sparrow. The producer has consistently expressed a strong public desire for Johnny Depp to reprise his role as Captain Jack Sparrow in future Pirates of the Caribbean installments, stating, "If It's Up To Me, He'll Be In It" [[^]](https://thedirect.com/article/pirates-of-the-caribbean-johnny-depp-jack-sparrow). Bruckheimer has also indicated that he has discussed the possibility with Depp and believes Depp would be receptive to returning, remarking, "I think he would do it" [[^]](https://geektyrant.com/news/producer-jerry-bruckheimer-gives-update-on-johnny-depps-return-as-captain-jack-sparrow-in-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6). These statements reflect his personal and professional preference for Depp's involvement, contingent on studio agreement.

Bruckheimer lacks unilateral casting approval under current Disney agreements. While Jerry Bruckheimer continues to produce the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise for Disney, his long-standing first-look film deal with the studio officially concluded in 2014 [[^]](https://deadline.com/2013/09/disney-and-jerry-bruckheimer-to-end-first-look-film-deal-in-2014-591681/). The provided sources do not detail any specific "key man" or casting approval rights within his current production agreements that would grant him the authority to unilaterally override studio executive concerns regarding casting decisions for the next film [[^]](https://variety.com/2013/film/news/disney-jerry-bruckheimer-ready-to-discuss-producers-future-at-the-mouse-house-1200615127). Casting approval for major roles typically rests with the studio, especially given the history and financial scale of the franchise.

## Are Disney Film Insurance Costs Publicly Available for Controversial Actors?

Specific Insurance/Bond Quotes | Not publicly available (Confidential) [[^]](https://www.productioninsurance.com/premiere.htm) |
Completion Bond Cost Range | Typically 3% to 6% of production budget, up to 10% for high-risk films [[^]](http://www.eqgroup.com/completion_bond.htm) |
Increased Morality Clause Usage | Particularly after 2018 [[^]](http://postcrescent.com/story/money/2018/03/10/bad-actors-could-prompt-movie-industry-request-morality-clauses-insurance/402642002/) |

**Film insurance costs and bond requirements remain confidential and highly customized**

Film insurance costs and bond requirements remain confidential and highly customized. Exact premium quotes for liability insurance and specific completion bond requirements for a major film production, such as a Disney tentpole starring Johnny Depp, are not publicly disclosed, as these figures are highly individualized and confidential for each project. Film insurance, which includes liability and cast coverage, is tailored based on several factors, including the film's budget, production scope, cast, stunts, and overall risk assessment [[^]](https://www.dev10.newsweek.com/how-much-tom-cruise-insured-mission-impossible-movie-stunts-hefty-price-1812442). Completion bonds, which guarantee timely and within-budget project delivery, typically range from **3%** to **6%** of the production budget. However, these can increase to **10%** for independent or high-risk films, with precise rates requiring a detailed financial review [[^]](http://www.eqgroup.com/completion_bond.htm).

Morality clauses have significantly increased, especially after 2018, impacting actor contracts. The film industry has increasingly incorporated "morality clauses" into contracts, particularly after 2018, to protect productions from financial losses due to cast and crew actions that could harm a film's reputation or marketability [[^]](http://postcrescent.com/story/money/2018/03/10/bad-actors-could-prompt-movie-industry-request-morality-clauses-insurance/402642002/). Insurers may require "problematic actors" to be covered by specific policies that often lead to higher premiums and stricter behavioral stipulations [[^]](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169367312/how-do-movie-producers-insure-lindsay-lohan-and-other-troubled-stars). It is highly probable that any current contract for an actor like Johnny Depp in a major production would contain more stringent morality clauses than his pre-2018 agreements. These clauses could potentially include financial penalties or termination rights triggered by adverse publicity or production delays [[^]](http://postcrescent.com/story/money/2018/03/10/bad-actors-could-prompt-movie-industry-request-morality-clauses-insurance/402642002/).

## Will Johnny Depp Be In The Next Pirates of the Caribbean Movie?

Number of scripts in development | Two, one with younger ensemble and one with Margot Robbie [[^]](https://screenrant.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-movie-script-timeline-jerry-bruckheimer/) |
Disney's preferred script | Script without Johnny Depp [[^]](https://fandomwire.com/were-working-on-a-script-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-had-2-scripts-but-disney-wanted-the-one-that-wasnt-johnny-depp/) |
Producer confirmation on Johnny Depp | Not featured in current project [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/02/jerry-bruckheimer-confirms-no-johnny-depp-for-latest-pirates-of-the-caribbean-with-margot-robbie-stepping-in-rl1/) |

**Two distinct screenplays for 'Pirates of the Caribbean 6' are currently in development, as confirmed by producer Jerry Bruckheimer [[^]](https://screenrant.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-movie-script-timeline-jerry-bruckheimer/)**

Two distinct screenplays for 'Pirates of the Caribbean 6' are currently in development, as confirmed by producer Jerry Bruckheimer [[^]](https://screenrant.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-movie-script-timeline-jerry-bruckheimer/). One of these scripts centers on a new, younger ensemble cast, aiming to serve as a franchise reboot or a fresh beginning for the series [[^]](https://screenrant.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-movie-script-timeline-jerry-bruckheimer/). The other screenplay features Margot Robbie in a prominent leading role, signifying a deliberate shift away from the franchise's past protagonists [[^]](https://screenrant.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-movie-script-timeline-jerry-bruckheimer/). These ongoing developments collectively indicate a strategic move towards introducing a new generation of characters, rather than continuing with the previous central figure.

The favored screenplays for 'Pirates 6' do not explicitly include Captain Jack Sparrow. While Jerry Bruckheimer had expressed a desire for Johnny Depp's return as Captain Jack Sparrow in May 2022 [[^]](https://thedirect.com/article/pirates-of-the-caribbean-johnny-depp-jack-sparrow), more recent updates point to a different creative direction. Disney has reportedly favored the screenplay that does not involve Johnny Depp [[^]](https://fandomwire.com/were-working-on-a-script-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-had-2-scripts-but-disney-wanted-the-one-that-wasnt-johnny-depp/). Furthermore, Bruckheimer has confirmed that Johnny Depp will not be featured in the current 'Pirates of the Caribbean' project, with Margot Robbie instead taking a lead role [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/02/jerry-bruckheimer-confirms-no-johnny-depp-for-latest-pirates-of-the-caribbean-with-margot-robbie-stepping-in-rl1/). Therefore, the currently favored screenplays for 'Pirates 6' focus on a new ensemble cast or a new lead character as part of an evolution for the franchise, rather than featuring Captain Jack Sparrow.

## What Are Johnny Depp's Current Demands for Pirates Return?

Prior Deal for Pirates 6 | $22.5 million [[^]](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10775919/Johnny-Depp-set-earn-22-5M-sixth-Pirates-Caribbean-movie-agent-says.html) |
Current Specific Demands | Not detailed in available sources [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/03/johnny-depp-set-to-return-to-pirates-after-disney-exit-producer-says-ad1) |
Producer Confirmation of Return | Plans for his return as Jack Sparrow [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/03/johnny-depp-set-to-return-to-pirates-after-disney-exit-producer-says-ad1) |

**Discussions suggest Johnny Depp's potential return to the Pirates franchise**

Discussions suggest Johnny Depp's potential return to the Pirates franchise. Web research indicates ongoing discussions and potential plans for Johnny Depp's return to the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise following his public exit from Disney [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/03/johnny-depp-set-to-return-to-pirates-after-disney-exit-producer-says-ad1). While producers have confirmed plans for his return as Jack Sparrow, the specific financial and creative control demands, such as a salary floor above **$20** million, back-end profit participation, or script veto power, that his current talent agency has communicated to Disney as non-negotiable for this potential return are not detailed in the available sources [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/03/johnny-depp-set-to-return-to-pirates-after-disney-exit-producer-says-ad1).

Previous agreements reveal Depp's past compensation expectations for Pirates. Despite the absence of specific current demands, past reports offer insight into his former compensation expectations for the franchise. Johnny Depp was reportedly set to earn **$22.5** million for the sixth Pirates of the Caribbean movie [[^]](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10775919/Johnny-Depp-set-earn-22-5M-sixth-Pirates-Caribbean-movie-agent-says.html). His former agent, Tracey Jacobs, testified that Depp had a **$22.5** million deal for 'Pirates 6' before Disney opted for a different direction due to allegations against him [[^]](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/johnny-depp-pirates-caribbean-pay-trial-1235255770/?cx_artPos=1&cx_testId=51&cx_testVariant=cx_2). This figure represents a prior agreement rather than new non-negotiable demands currently being communicated for a potential new deal.

## What is the filming timeline for Pirates of the Caribbean 6?

Filming Start Target | 2026 [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2024/11/disney-sends-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-filming-date-timeline-revealed-ad1/) |
Potential Release Date | 2027 [[^]](https://fandomwire.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-release-timeline-johnny-depp-return-speculation-story-details/) |
Market Research for Jack Sparrow | None mentioned for next 18 months [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2024/11/disney-sends-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-filming-date-timeline-revealed-ad1/) |

**The next 'Pirates of the Caribbean' film targets a 2026 filming start**

The next 'Pirates of the Caribbean' film targets a 2026 filming start. Disney is reportedly aiming for a 2026 filming start for the upcoming 'Pirates of the Caribbean' movie [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2024/11/disney-sends-pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-filming-date-timeline-revealed-ad1/). Industry reports suggest that the film could potentially see a release date as early as 2027 [[^]](https://fandomwire.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-release-timeline-johnny-depp-return-speculation-story-details/). These timelines establish a clear production path for the next installment within the coming years.

No **market** research on Jack Sparrow concepts is currently scheduled. While there is considerable discussion and updates regarding Johnny Depp's potential return as Jack Sparrow [[^]](https://fandomwire.com/pirates-of-the-caribbean-6-release-timeline-johnny-depp-return-speculation-story-details/), the available research does not indicate any scheduled **market** research or test audience screenings of concepts, either with or without his character, within the next 18 months. The primary focus in current reports revolves around potential casting decisions and story advancements, including the possibility of Jack Sparrow's son leading a future installment [[^]](https://insidethemagic.net/2026/02/new-pirates-6-casting-information-surfaces-as-jack-sparrows-son-reportedly-leading-future-franchise-th1/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2035
- **Closes:** January 01, 2035

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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