# Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Wedding attendees

On Dec 31, 2028

Updated: July 5, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: People

HTML: /markets/entertainment/people/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-wedding-attendees/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Selena Gomez is most likely to attend the wedding, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Since last update (~47d): Max Martin's model probability surged +38.6pp, model_led, compressing the edge as the market rose +30.0pp.** - Phoebe Bridgers' **probability** declined -26.0pp (model_led), widening the edge; the **market** dropped -23.0pp.
- Eight new potential attendees, including Harry Styles and Jason Kelce, were added to the **market**.
- Overall, the headline **model** **probability** increased +7.7pp, while the **market** gained +8.0pp.

**- - Haim sisters' consistent group attendance supports their likely attendance.** - Strong co-appearances and interactions via social data support Gracie Abrams' attendance.
- Patrick Mahomes' confirmed groomsman role indicates Brittany Mahomes likely attended.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 99c slightly exceeds **98.7%** **model** (-0.3pp), confirming multiple high-profile attendees.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Blake Lively | 1.0% | 0.3% | Very close personal friend of Taylor Swift and a frequent companion. |
| Selena Gomez | 99.0% | 98.7% | Selena Gomez is a very close and long-time friend of Taylor Swift. |
| Margaret Qualley | 3.0% | 1.0% | Maintains a close personal friendship with Taylor Swift. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Blake Lively | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Selena Gomez | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| Margaret Qualley | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 98.0% | 97.4% |
| Brittany Mahomes | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| Lana Del Rey | 43.0% | 30.0% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 98.0% | 97.4% |
| Benny Blanco | 98.0% | 97.4% |
| Gracie Abrams | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| Katy Perry | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Phoebe Bridgers | 43.0% | 30.0% |
| Alana Haim | 99.0% | 98.3% |
| Harry Styles | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jack Antonoff | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| Florence Welch | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Este Haim | 98.0% | 98.3% |
| Danielle Haim | 99.0% | 98.3% |
| Jason Kelce | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| Max Martin | 95.0% | 93.4% |
| Justin Trudeau | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jared Goff | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Lorde | 6.0% | 2.2% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has traded in a tight, high-probability range, opening at 90.0% and reaching its current price of 99.0%. The chart is defined by a single, sharp movement on July 3, 2026, when the price jumped 9.0 percentage points from 90.0% to 99.0%. Prior to this event, the 90.0% level acted as a stable baseline, indicating strong market conviction that the event conditioning the contract, a wedding, would occur. The 99.0% level has since served as a ceiling, where the price has remained static.

The definitive price spike on July 3, 2026, was driven by news reports that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were married on that day. This event effectively resolved the primary uncertainty for the market, which is contingent on wedding attendees. The shift from 90.0% to 99.0% reflects the market moving from a high-confidence forecast to pricing in the near-certainty of the outcome post-confirmation.

Total volume of 96,027 contracts indicates significant liquidity over the market's life. The price stability at both the 90.0% and 99.0% levels suggests these were consensus points. The repricing on the day of the event appears to have been a swift, decisive adjustment rather than a period of high-volume, two-sided trading, as the market absorbed the news and moved to a near-resolved state.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Lana Del Rey

#### 📈 July 05, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 44.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point spike in the "Lana Del Rey" outcome was the widespread reporting of her attendance at the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding, which took place on July 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c982ry2pen3o). News outlets, including The New York Times, reported Lana Del Rey as an attendee shortly after the event [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/03/style/taylor-swift-wedding-travis-kelce). This traditional news was then rapidly amplified across social media platforms, leveraging the well-documented "Swift effect" that historically generates massive social media engagement for the couple [[^]](https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1042&context=scom-facpubs). The social media activity likely *coincided with* the initial reports and *led to* the market movement by July 5, 2026, indicating social media was a primary driver through its rapid dissemination of confirmed attendance.

### Outcome: Lorde

#### 📉 July 04, 2026: 42.0pp drop

Price decreased from 44.0% to 2.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 42.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Lorde's attendance at the wedding was the official confirmation of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage on July 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c982ry2pen3o)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-day-madison-square-garden-nyc/)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-are-officially-married-3954949)[[^]](https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/07/03/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-celebration-to-light-up-new-york/). News reports detailed the ceremony and key participants, including the officiant and best men, but did not include Lorde, who was previously an anticipated but unconfirmed guest [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c982ry2pen3o)[[^]](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/culture/story/taylor-swift-travis-kelces-2nd-wedding-event-expected-134426168)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-are-officially-married-3954949)[[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/taylor-swift-wedding-who-will-be-there-more-questions-1235586038/)[[^]](https://www.instagram.com/p/DaVk-XdsOGM/). This public confirmation of the wedding before the market's July 4, 2026 date, coupled with the absence of Lorde from immediate attendee lists, directly caused a significant decrease in her attendance probability [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c982ry2pen3o)[[^]](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/culture/story/taylor-swift-travis-kelces-2nd-wedding-event-expected-134426168)[[^]](https://abc7news.com/post/taylor-swift-travis-kelces-2nd-wedding-event-expected-madison-square-garden/19440720/)[[^]](https://pdata.world/news). Social media was irrelevant, as no specific posts or viral narratives correlating with the price drop were identified.

#### 📉 July 02, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 55.0% to 36.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the price movement was traditional news reporting on the scale of the impending wedding. On July 2, 2026, traditional news outlets, such as Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition, announced that New York City was preparing to host Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's nuptials the following day and stated that "Sources say about a thousand celebrity guests" were expected [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8ibYB7OTqQ). This news appeared to coincide with the 19.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Lorde" as a wedding attendee. The revelation of such a large and diffuse guest list likely diluted the perceived individual probability of any specific celebrity like Lorde attending, whose presence had not been explicitly confirmed, thereby reducing confidence in her attendance [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8ibYB7OTqQ). Social media was not identified as a primary driver.

### Outcome: Justin Trudeau

#### 📉 July 03, 2026: 35.0pp drop

Price decreased from 43.0% to 8.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for any hypothetical price movement regarding Justin Trudeau's attendance at the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding on July 3, 2026, would stem from traditional news: his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada in January 2025 [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/justin-trudeau-resigns-canada-prime-minister-liberal-party-leader/)[[^]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-justin-trudeau-political-history/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5069054-canadian-prime-minister-trudeau-resigns/). This significantly reduced his public profile, making his attendance at a high-profile celebrity event unlikely. Although web research indicates there is no evidence of a '35.0 percentage point drop' related to Justin Trudeau in July 2026 [[^]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1600839/justin-trudeau-canada-approval-rating/)[[^]](https://338canada.com/20250705-leg.htm)[[^]](https://www.thewrit.ca/p/polls-give-liberals-reason-to-celebrate), his prior political retirement would be the fundamental factor impacting such a prediction market. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or viral narratives were found.

### Outcome: Margaret Qualley

#### 📈 July 01, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 75.0%

**What happened:** On July 01, 2026, no direct social media activity or traditional news was identified that explicitly caused an 18.0 percentage point spike in the "Margaret Qualley" outcome for the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding attendees market. Research indicates that this specific price movement is not explicitly documented as a direct catalyst linked to Margaret Qualley's absence from the July 2026 wedding [[^]](https://backyarddrunkard.com/celebrity-news/margaret-qualley-vanity-fair-2026-interview-substance-jack-antonoff/). Instead, it may relate to broader social media analysis of a celebrity profile or event trend from earlier in 2026 [[^]](https://backyarddrunkard.com/celebrity-news/margaret-qualley-vanity-fair-2026-interview-substance-jack-antonoff/). Consequently, social media activity on or around July 1, 2026, appears to have been largely irrelevant to this specific price spike regarding her attendance.

## Contract Snapshot

For a "Yes" resolution, an individual must be reported as attending the first wedding ceremony where Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce exchange vows, as confirmed by specified news and entertainment sources or the person's own social media; brief or virtual attendance counts. A "No" resolution occurs if attendance is not confirmed by these criteria. The market opened on August 29, 2025, and will close after the wedding occurs or by December 31, 2028, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by employees of source agencies or those with material non-public information is prohibited.

## Market Discussion

Traders are primarily focused on whether Lana Del Rey and Phoebe Bridgers will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding, with both currently showing a 43% chance. Arguments for "Yes" include a user citing a Hollywood Reporter claim of an official guest list from Swift's publicist that includes Lana Del Rey, and strong friendship/collaboration ties between Swift and Bridgers suggesting her attendance at a potentially large event. However, discussion also notes reports from CBS and Fox suggesting the possibility of an earlier, unconfirmed wedding ceremony, which could complicate the market's resolution based on the "first wedding ceremony" rule.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Benny Blanco | 98% | 99% | 98% | $37,617.24 | $11,727.35 |
| Florence Welch | 2% | 3% | 4% | $26,420.81 | $8,918.59 |
| Harry Styles | 0% | 1% | 1% | $27,943.29 | $12,887.97 |
| Jason Kelce | 99% | 100% | 99% | $18,462.89 | $11,703.45 |
| Justin Trudeau | 1% | 2% | 1% | $8,618.39 | $3,453.71 |
| Katy Perry | 1% | 2% | 1% | $31,451.48 | $18,350.66 |
| Lorde | 2% | 3% | 6% | $7,331.27 | $4,155.2 |
| Margaret Qualley | 1% | 3% | 3% | $61,987.34 | $33,958.85 |
| Alana Haim | 98% | 99% | 99% | $27,980.8 | $11,662.73 |
| Blake Lively | 1% | 2% | 1% | $109,621.25 | $48,223.21 |
| Brittany Mahomes | 98% | 99% | 99% | $52,089.08 | $11,169.35 |
| Danielle Haim | 98% | 99% | 99% | $20,530.17 | $8,692.39 |
| Este Haim | 98% | 99% | 98% | $21,873.56 | $9,006.63 |
| Gracie Abrams | 98% | 99% | 99% | $36,250.86 | $12,068.61 |
| Jack Antonoff | 98% | 99% | 99% | $26,752.48 | $12,252.86 |
| Jared Goff | 1% | 3% | 1% | $7,816.26 | $3,508.85 |
| Lana Del Rey | 40% | 44% | 43% | $40,640.23 | $20,966.22 |
| Max Martin | 94% | 98% | 95% | $18,149.43 | $5,488.55 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 98% | 99% | 98% | $59,569.34 | $22,412.97 |
| Phoebe Bridgers | 39% | 45% | 43% | $28,763.82 | $14,292.14 |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 98% | 99% | 98% | $40,217.71 | $10,941.47 |
| Selena Gomez | 99% | 100% | 99% | $101,205.51 | $69,235.77 |

## What historical precedent in Taylor Swift's social circle supports the market consensus that all three Haim sisters (Este, Danielle, and Alana) would attend as a group?

Haim sisters' social dynamic with Swift | Widely considered a 'package deal' [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1432880/taylor-swifts-friendship-with-haims-este-haim-danielle-haim-alana-haim)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/people/celebrities/article/3357566/taylor-swift-and-haim-sisters-decade-long-friendship) |
Historical group attendance precedent | Frequent at parties, tours, and music collaborations [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/taylor-swift-4th-july-squad-215500000.html) |
Example of partial attendance | Este and Alana at June 2026 NBA Finals game [[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1432880/taylor-swifts-friendship-with-haims-este-haim-danielle-haim-alana-haim)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/watch-taylor-swift-and-haim-celebrate-as-they-attend-knicks-vs-spurs-nba-final-3950213)[[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/people/celebrities/article/3357566/taylor-swift-and-haim-sisters-decade-long-friendship)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/sports/news/este-haim-reflects-on-nba-finals-game-with-taylor-swift/) |

**The Haim sisters often attend Taylor Swift events as a unified group**

The Haim sisters often attend Taylor Swift events as a unified group. Historical precedents consistently show that Este, Danielle, and Alana Haim are widely regarded as a unified group in their social interactions with Taylor Swift [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1432880/taylor-swifts-friendship-with-haims-este-haim-danielle-haim-alana-haim)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/people/celebrities/article/3357566/taylor-swift-and-haim-sisters-decade-long-friendship). This perception is so strong that the trio is often collectively referred to as 'the fourth Haim sister' in relation to Swift [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1432880/taylor-swifts-friendship-with-haims-este-haim-danielle-haim-alana-haim)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/people/celebrities/article/3357566/taylor-swift-and-haim-sisters-decade-long-friendship).

Historical events and collaborations show their frequent group attendance. Evidence of their group attendance includes Swift's annual Fourth of July parties and significant personal events like her 25th birthday party in 2014 [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/taylor-swift-4th-july-squad-215500000.html). Their collective presence extends to various music collaborations, such as the Eras Tour and the song 'no body, no crime' [[^]](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a71562836/taylor-swift-haim-sister-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/taylor-swift-haim-sisters-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://umusic.co.nz/umusic/pop/a-timeline-of-taylor-swift-haims-friendship-where-it-started-why-theyre-now-involved-in-a-murder-mystery/)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/taylor-swift-4th-july-squad-215500000.html). These instances reinforce the **market** consensus that the sisters would typically attend events with Swift as a complete group.

Despite group tendencies, individual Haim sisters sometimes attend events. However, there are exceptions to this 'package deal' dynamic, where only certain Haim sisters have attended events with Swift. For example, only Este and Alana were present at an NBA Finals game in June 2026, indicating that group attendance is not universally absolute [[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1432880/taylor-swifts-friendship-with-haims-este-haim-danielle-haim-alana-haim)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/watch-taylor-swift-and-haim-celebrate-as-they-attend-knicks-vs-spurs-nba-final-3950213)[[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/people/celebrities/article/3357566/taylor-swift-and-haim-sisters-decade-long-friendship)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/sports/news/este-haim-reflects-on-nba-finals-game-with-taylor-swift/).

## What potential personal or professional developments between now and 2028 could impact the attendance of Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds?

Attendance of Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds | Did not attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-taylor-swift-wedding-1236637333/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/) |
Wedding Date | Early July 2026 [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-taylor-swift-wedding-1236637333/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/) |
Primary Reason for Non-Attendance | Breakdown in friendship between Swift and Lively, exacerbated by a 2025 legal battle [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://metro.co.uk/2026/07/03/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-missing-taylor-swifts-wedding-legal-drama-29030315/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/) |

**Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds did not attend the wedding**

Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds did not attend the wedding. Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds were absent from the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, which took place in early July 2026 at Madison Square Garden [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-taylor-swift-wedding-1236637333/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/). This event occurred significantly before the December 31, 2028, resolution date for the specified prediction **market**, confirming their non-attendance within the **market**'s parameters [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtaylorswiftweddingattend/who-will-attend-taylor-swifts-wedding/kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-s-wedding)[[^]](https://app.prediroute.com/en/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding).

Their absence was due to strained relationships. Their non-attendance stemmed from a notable deterioration in the long-standing friendship between Swift and Lively, primarily caused by Lively's 2025 legal battle with Justin Baldoni, which publicly disclosed private communications involving Swift [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://metro.co.uk/2026/07/03/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-missing-taylor-swifts-wedding-legal-drama-29030315/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/). Additionally, reports indicated Travis Kelce held reservations regarding Ryan Reynolds' personality and style, further contributing to the distance between the two couples [[^]](https://www.on3.com/pro/news/report-travis-kelce-never-a-fan-of-ryan-reynolds-after-double-dates-with-taylor-swift-blake-lively/)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/).

Future developments cannot change their past non-attendance. Given the wedding's occurrence in July 2026, any potential personal or professional developments between now and 2028 cannot impact their attendance, as the event has already concluded [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-taylor-swift-wedding-1236637333/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/). The established reasons for their absence were in place well before the 2026 wedding [[^]](https://people.com/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-new-york-as-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-prepare-wed-11898019)[[^]](https://pagesix.com/2026/07/03/entertainment/blake-lively-and-ryan-reynolds-shut-out-of-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-msg-wedding/)[[^]](https://metro.co.uk/2026/07/03/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-missing-taylor-swifts-wedding-legal-drama-29030315/)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/blake-lively-ryan-reynolds-upstate-amid-taylor-swift-wedding/)[[^]](https://www.on3.com/pro/news/report-travis-kelce-never-a-fan-of-ryan-reynolds-after-double-dates-with-taylor-swift-blake-lively/).

## How do Jack Antonoff's and Lana Del Rey's distinct collaborative histories with Taylor Swift influence their respective probabilities of receiving an invitation?

Confirmed Wedding Guest | Jack Antonoff [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/2024/04/24/jack-antonoff-taylor-swift-timeline/)[[^]](https://people.com/music/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/music/taylor-swift-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline-rcna120163)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoffs-complete-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding) |
Wedding Date | July 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/2024/04/24/jack-antonoff-taylor-swift-timeline/)[[^]](https://people.com/music/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/music/taylor-swift-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline-rcna120163)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoffs-complete-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding) |
Lana Del Rey Invitation Status | Not specified [[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-friendship-timeline-rcna137536)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-lana-del-reys-friendship-timeline-through-the-years/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/lana-del-rey-taylor-swift-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/us/music/timeline-taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-s-friendship-explored) |

**Jack Antonoff's strong relationship with Taylor Swift secured his wedding invitation**

Jack Antonoff's strong relationship with Taylor Swift secured his wedding invitation. He was a confirmed guest at Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding, which reportedly occurred on July 3, 2026, at Madison Square Garden [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/2024/04/24/jack-antonoff-taylor-swift-timeline/)[[^]](https://people.com/music/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/music/taylor-swift-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline-rcna120163)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoffs-complete-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-wedding-invites-reportedly-came-with-ndas-ahead-of-rumoured-madison-square-garden-nuptials-3954156)[[^]](https://www.fox5ny.com/news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-rumored-wedding-security-ndas-watermarked-invitations)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/truth-behind-taylor-swift-travis-155413000.html). His invitation was influenced by his foundational collaborative history and close personal friendship with Taylor Swift, as he has worked on nearly all her studio albums since 2014 [[^]](https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/2024/04/24/jack-antonoff-taylor-swift-timeline/)[[^]](https://people.com/music/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/music/taylor-swift-jack-antonoff-friendship-timeline-rcna120163)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-jack-antonoffs-complete-friendship-timeline/)[[^]](https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding).

Lana Del Rey's invitation status remains unconfirmed despite mutual regard. While Lana Del Rey and Taylor Swift share a mutual friendship, partially bridged by their common work with producer Jack Antonoff, their collaborative history is limited [[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-friendship-timeline-rcna137536)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-lana-del-reys-friendship-timeline-through-the-years/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/lana-del-rey-taylor-swift-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/us/music/timeline-taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-s-friendship-explored). Their primary collaborations involve the song "Snow on the Beach" and public appearances [[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-friendship-timeline-rcna137536)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-lana-del-reys-friendship-timeline-through-the-years/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/lana-del-rey-taylor-swift-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/us/music/timeline-taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-s-friendship-explored). Despite the high regard between them, available research does not specify whether Lana Del Rey received an invitation to the event [[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-friendship-timeline-rcna137536)[[^]](https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/taylor-swift-and-lana-del-reys-friendship-timeline-through-the-years/)[[^]](https://www.j-14.com/posts/lana-del-rey-taylor-swift-friendship-timeline-how-they-met/)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/us/music/timeline-taylor-swift-lana-del-rey-s-friendship-explored). The wedding featured extensive security measures, individualized watermarked invitations, and required Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) for a large guest list that reportedly exceeded 1,000 people [[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-wedding-invites-reportedly-came-with-ndas-ahead-of-rumoured-madison-square-garden-nuptials-3954156)[[^]](https://www.fox5ny.com/news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-rumored-wedding-security-ndas-watermarked-invitations)[[^]](https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/articles/truth-behind-taylor-swift-travis-155413000.html).

## What publicly available data can be used to track co-appearances and social interactions between Taylor Swift and potential guests like Gracie Abrams and Phoebe Bridgers since 2023?

Data Type | Social media metadata (followers, posts, likes, tags) [[^]](https://blog.pline.ai/celebrity-news-tracker-pline/)[[^]](https://okmagazine.com/p/the-rise-of-the-instagram-activity-tracker-how-likes-and-follows-became-celebrity-cultures-new-obsession/)[[^]](https://github.com/jeet-ganguly/birdy-edwards-lite)[[^]](https://github.com/XD-MHLOO/Osintgraph) |
Data Collection Method | Automated Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) tools [[^]](https://github.com/nintang/cf_ai_connected)[[^]](https://blog.pline.ai/celebrity-news-tracker-pline/)[[^]](https://github.com/jeet-ganguly/birdy-edwards-lite)[[^]](https://github.com/XD-MHLOO/Osintgraph) |
Example Third-Party Tracker | Snoopreport for Instagram activity [[^]](https://okmagazine.com/p/the-rise-of-the-instagram-activity-tracker-how-likes-and-follows-became-celebrity-cultures-new-obsession/) |

**Publicly available social media data effectively tracks celebrity interactions and co-appearances since 2023**

Publicly available social media data effectively tracks celebrity interactions and co-appearances since 2023. This data encompasses social media platform metadata, such as followers and following lists, along with public post content, comments, likes, and taggable image metadata [[^]](https://blog.pline.ai/celebrity-news-tracker-pline/)[[^]](https://okmagazine.com/p/the-rise-of-the-instagram-activity-tracker-how-likes-and-follows-became-celebrity-cultures-new-obsession/)[[^]](https://github.com/jeet-ganguly/birdy-edwards-lite)[[^]](https://github.com/XD-MHLOO/Osintgraph). This information serves as a basis for identifying connections and social interactions among individuals like Taylor Swift, Gracie Abrams, and Phoebe Bridgers.

Advanced OSINT tools streamline the collection and analysis of public social media data. These tools can automate the gathering of public information, which aids in interaction mapping, co-occurrence analysis of photo tags, and network graph visualization [[^]](https://github.com/nintang/cf_ai_connected)[[^]](https://blog.pline.ai/celebrity-news-tracker-pline/)[[^]](https://github.com/jeet-ganguly/birdy-edwards-lite)[[^]](https://github.com/XD-MHLOO/Osintgraph). Examples include custom scripts like Osintgraph [[^]](https://github.com/XD-MHLOO/Osintgraph) and Birdy-Edwards Lite [[^]](https://github.com/jeet-ganguly/birdy-edwards-lite), as well as AI-powered visual connection tools such as cf_ai_connected [[^]](https://github.com/nintang/cf_ai_connected). Additionally, third-party Instagram activity trackers like Snoopreport can monitor public account interactions over time, including likes and follows, to reveal behavioral trends and associations between celebrities [[^]](https://okmagazine.com/p/the-rise-of-the-instagram-activity-tracker-how-likes-and-follows-became-celebrity-cultures-new-obsession/).

## What evidence from past family gatherings and Kansas City Chiefs events supports the high probability of Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes being included on the guest list?

Groomsmen Confirmation | Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are confirmed as groomsmen in Travis Kelce's wedding party [[^]](https://www.dailymail.com/sport/nfl/article-15951891/travis-kelce-wedding-groomsmen-taylor-swift.html) |
Mahomes Attendance Probability | 86%-96% (Prediction markets for Patrick Mahomes attending the wedding) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding)[[^]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-s-wedding)[[^]](https://app.prediroute.com/en/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding) |
Wedding Location | New York City (Reported location for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's nuptials) [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8ibYB7OTqQ) |

**Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are confirmed groomsmen for Travis Kelce's wedding**

Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are confirmed groomsmen for Travis Kelce's wedding. Their official role in Travis Kelce's upcoming wedding to Taylor Swift solidifies their high **probability** of inclusion on the guest list [[^]](https://www.dailymail.com/sport/nfl/article-15951891/travis-kelce-wedding-groomsmen-taylor-swift.html). Extensive documented evidence further supports their close personal relationships, including joint participation in charity events such as Big Slick [[^]](https://people.com/travis-kelce-jason-kelce-patrick-mahomes-big-slick-celebrity-weekend-photos-11746111), shared bachelor party celebrations in the Bahamas and Los Angeles [[^]](https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/2026/04/02/69ce45ce268e3e50268b45a4.html)[[^]](https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/2026/06/22/travis-kelce-s-bachelor-party-continues-with-another-sport-alongside-his-best-men-jason-and-patrick-mahomes.html), birthday celebrations [[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1422599/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-at-patrick-mahomes-30th-birthday-party), and various other social interactions involving Taylor Swift [[^]](https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/2025/05/18/68291a9e22601d16798b4599.html). Patrick Mahomes has also described Jason Kelce as "the life of the party" during their celebrations [[^]](https://people.com/patrick-mahomes-says-jason-kelce-was-life-of-the-party-after-super-bowl-8578826).

Prediction markets consistently indicate a high **probability** of attendance for Patrick Mahomes. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PrediRoute show consistent probabilities for Patrick Mahomes, often between **86%** and **96%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding)[[^]](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-s-wedding)[[^]](https://app.prediroute.com/en/event/who-will-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-wedding). This data reflects a broad public and media consensus regarding his close connection to both Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. The wedding ceremonies for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are reportedly planned to take place in New York City [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8ibYB7OTqQ).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were married on July 3, 2026, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, with Adam Sandler officiating [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c982ry2pen3o)[[^]](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg5zn58nj2o)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-are-officially-married-3954949).** Austin Swift served as Man of Honor and Jason Kelce as Best Man [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-rumors-prediction-markets-kalshi/)[[^]](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-predictions-markets-1236637229/)[[^]](https://www.nme.com/news/music/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-are-officially-married-3954949). This event followed significant **market** activity. Prediction markets saw over **$4** million in wagers on various wedding aspects, including location, date, and wedding party members [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-rumors-prediction-markets-kalshi/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/entertainment/taylor-swift-wedding-bets-top-4m-enough-to-fund-dozens-of-weddings-12123115)[[^]](https://www.newsnationnow.com/entertainment-news/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-wedding-bets/). New York City had been preparing to host the nuptials, with reports of approximately a thousand celebrity guests [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8ibYB7OTqQ).

**Following the marriage, prediction markets shifted focus.** Current wagers center on post-wedding outcomes, such as wedding attendee lists and the long-term status of their relationship through 2028 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtaylorswiftweddingattend/who-will-attend-taylor-swifts-wedding/kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/WesleyLim/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-still).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** December 31, 2028
- **Closes:** December 31, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were married on July 3, 2026, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, with Adam Sandler officiating [^] [^] [^] .
- Austin Swift served as Man of Honor and Jason Kelce as Best Man [^] [^] [^] .
- This event followed significant **market** activity.
- Prediction markets saw over **$4** million in wagers on various wedding aspects, including location, date, and wedding party members [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/entertainment/people/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-wedding-attendees
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