# Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score

Runner

Updated: September 1, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: Rotten Tomatoes

HTML: /markets/entertainment/rotten-tomatoes/runner-rotten-tomatoes-score/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Runner's Rotten Tomatoes score is expected to be above 45; the lead actor's favorable recent critical reception may support this outcome despite the director's predominantly low historical action film scores, with the **market** pricing this at **92%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Runner's score appears above 45, likely supported by the lead actor's favorable reception.** - A score above 85 is unlikely, given director Scott Waugh's low historical film scores.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Director Scott Waugh's consistently low Rotten Tomatoes scores for action films drive the **market**'s current **7%** **probability**.

The wide price range in this market does not correspond to any reported catalyst for the film 'Runner'. Basic details, including the cast of Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson and a September 2026 release date, are public, but no reviews, production news, or early screening reactions have been released that would justify a significant shift in expected critical reception. The sharp price movements appear to be a function of an illiquid, newly created market, with price discovery occurring on extremely low volume rather than as a response to new information.

The market has since stabilized at 7.0%, near its opening price. The low total volume of 874 contracts traded indicates minimal participation and a lack of conviction behind any price level. The current pricing reflects this absence of new information, with the market remaining dormant far ahead of the film's release.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 85 | 7.0% | 16.0% | The director's historical scores make a Rotten Tomatoes score above 85 for Runner unlikely. |
| Above 90 | 25.0% | 13.0% | The director's historical scores make a Rotten Tomatoes score above 90 for Runner unlikely. |
| Above 80 | 9.0% | 19.0% | The director's historical Rotten Tomatoes scores for action films are predominantly low. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 85 | 7.0% | 16.0% |
| Above 90 | 25.0% | 13.0% |
| Above 80 | 9.0% | 19.0% |
| Above 60 | 41.0% | 33.0% |
| Above 45 | 92.0% | 90.0% |
| Above 50 | 0.0% | 37.0% |
| Above 55 | 0.0% | 35.0% |
| Above 65 | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Above 70 | 0.0% | 23.0% |
| Above 75 | 0.0% | 21.0% |

- Expiration: September 14, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 September 01, 2026: 84.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 92.0%

**Outcome:** Above 45

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 84.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price cannot be identified from the provided research. On September 1, 2026, neither "Runner" (2026) nor "The Runner" (2026) had been released or reviewed, precluding any actual Rotten Tomatoes score for such a movement to reflect [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026_2)[[^]](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/runner-2026/)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://collider.com/alan-ritchson-runner-owen-wilson-release-date-september-2026/). There is no evidence in the provided sources of social media activity or news announcements explicitly causing an 84.0pp surge in expectations for an "Above 45" score on that date [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026_2)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://wsvn.com/entertainment/deco-drive/gal-gadot-the-runner-prime-video/)[[^]](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt31349844/). Therefore, social media was not identifiable as a primary driver, as no causal event is present in the research.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for the movie 'Runner (2026)' is 45% or higher, and NO if it is below 45%. Resolution depends on the official Tomatometer score displayed on rottentomatoes.com, which is currently "Coming soon." The maximum payout date for this market is September 14, 2026.

## Market Discussion

The action-thriller "Runner," starring Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson, is scheduled for theatrical release on September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026). Public discussion presents conflicting information on its Rotten Tomatoes score: while the Tomatometer was not yet available as of September 1, 2026, as the film had not premiered [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026), one report indicates it holds a 95% critics' score and 94% audience score based on numerous reviews and ratings [[^]](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt31349844/news/). Discussion is also active on platforms like the Hollywood Stock Exchange, analyzing the potential of this Angel Studios-backed film [[^]](https://www.hsx.com/security/view/RUNNR).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 45 | 60% | 89% | 92% | $1 | $1 |
| Above 50 | 52% | 88% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 55 | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 60 | 14% | 88% | 41% | $2 | $1 |
| Above 65 | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 70 | 12% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 75 | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 80 | 8% | 77% | 9% | $6 | $6 |
| Above 85 | 3% | 74% | 7% | $874 | $871 |
| Above 90 | 3% | 26% | 25% | $483 | $480 |

## What is the typical distribution of Rotten Tomatoes scores for action-thrillers released theatrically in the late-summer/early-fall period (August-September) from 2021-2025?

Rotten Tomatoes Score Range | Critically panned to highly favorable [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/copshop)[[^]](https://screenrant.com/relay-2025-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score/)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/retribution_2023)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_protege)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nobody_2021) |
Example Low Score | 30% (Retribution) [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/copshop)[[^]](https://screenrant.com/relay-2025-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score/)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/retribution_2023)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_protege)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nobody_2021) |
Example High Score | 83% (Nobody, Copshop) [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/copshop)[[^]](https://screenrant.com/relay-2025-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score/)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/retribution_2023)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_protege)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nobody_2021) |

**Action-thrillers show varied Rotten Tomatoes scores in late-summer/early-fall**

Action-thrillers show varied Rotten Tomatoes scores in late-summer/early-fall. Theatrical action-thriller releases in August and September from 2021 to 2025 have consistently displayed a wide range of Rotten Tomatoes scores, spanning from critically panned to highly favorable. For instance, films like "Retribution" received a score of **30%**, while others such as "Nobody" and "Copshop" achieved significantly higher scores of **83%** [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/copshop)[[^]](https://screenrant.com/relay-2025-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score/)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/retribution_2023)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_protege)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nobody_2021).

"Runner" (2026) lacks a score prior to its release. The action-comedy-thriller "Runner" (2026) is slated for wide theatrical release in the United States on September 11, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, the film has not yet been released, and therefore, it currently holds no Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film)).

## How might the timing of the review embargo for 'Runner', relative to its September 11, 2026 release, signal Angel Studios' confidence in the film's quality?

Film Release Date | September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/tickets/runner)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film))[[^]](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/2163577-runner-final-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson-action-movie)[[^]](https://collider.com/runner-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson/) |
Review Embargo Dates | Not publicly advertised [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/blog/runner/posts/is-angel-releasing-an-r-rated-movie-runner)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9) |
Marketing Strategy | Community-driven, grassroots model [[^]](https://briefglance.com/articles/angel-studios-can-faith-driven-disruption-win-over-wall-street)[[^]](https://deadline.com/2025/09/sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-closes-spac-merger-stock-market-1236528120/)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9) |

**Angel Studios does not publicly advertise 'Runner' embargo dates**

Angel Studios does not publicly advertise 'Runner' embargo dates. Specific review embargo dates for the film "Runner" are not publicly advertised in mainstream industry trade publications [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/blog/runner/posts/is-angel-releasing-an-r-rated-movie-runner)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9). Therefore, the timing of a review embargo relative to its September 11, 2026 release date [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/tickets/runner)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film))[[^]](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/2163577-runner-final-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson-action-movie)[[^]](https://collider.com/runner-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson/) does not traditionally signal Angel Studios' **confidence** in the film's quality.

Angel Studios employs a unique community-driven marketing **model**. Rather than relying on traditional Hollywood review-embargo strategies, Angel Studios utilizes a community-driven, grassroots marketing **model**, leveraging its "Angel Guild" members and a "Pay It Forward" program [[^]](https://briefglance.com/articles/angel-studios-can-faith-driven-disruption-win-over-wall-street)[[^]](https://deadline.com/2025/09/sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-closes-spac-merger-stock-**market**-1236528120/)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9). This business **model** and the studio's track record suggest a strategic focus on direct audience engagement and grassroots momentum as key drivers for box office success, rather than relying on critic sentiment [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.angel.com/blog/runner/posts/is-angel-releasing-an-r-rated-movie-runner)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9). This approach aims to mobilize an audience often overlooked by traditional studios [[^]](https://briefglance.com/articles/angel-studios-can-faith-driven-disruption-win-over-wall-street)[[^]](https://deadline.com/2025/09/sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-closes-spac-merger-stock-**market**-1236528120/)[[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/angel-studios-stock-public-sound-of-freedom-the-chosen-hollywood-2025-9).

## How does the critical performance of Angel Studios' recent releases compare to the average Tomatometer scores for action-thrillers from major distributors (e.g., Paramount, Universal) from 2023-2025?

Sight Tomatometer Score | 63% [[^]](https://collider.com/angel-studios-ww2-movie-truth-and-treason-box-office-3-million/) |
Sketch Tomatometer Score | 97% [[^]](https://collider.com/sketch-global-box-office-5-million/) |
Typical Major Distributor Action-Thriller Score | 50-70% [[^]](https://rdrr.io/cran/Lock5Data/man/HollywoodMovies.html)[[^]](https://github.com/divyanshi14/Rotten_Tomatoes_Movie_Rating_Analysis)[[^]](https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/box-office-tomatometer-the-studio-winners-of-2023/)[[^]](https://github.com/richesinrr0/microsoft_movie_analysis) |

**Angel Studios' recent films show varied critical reception on Rotten Tomatoes**

Angel Studios' recent films show varied critical reception on Rotten Tomatoes. Angel Studios' recent film releases exhibit diverse critical reception on Rotten Tomatoes. For example, 'Sight' (2024) achieved a Tomatometer score of **63%** [[^]](https://collider.com/angel-studios-ww2-movie-truth-and-treason-box-office-3-million/), while 'Sketch' (2025) garnered a significantly higher score of **97%** [[^]](https://collider.com/sketch-global-box-office-5-million/). Another film, 'Runner', has not been released as of September 1, 2026, and its Rotten Tomatoes listing consequently shows **0%** due to the absence of reviews [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026).

Angel Studios' critical scores compare favorably to major distributor averages. When evaluated against industry benchmarks, these scores reveal interesting patterns. Action-thriller films from major distributors typically receive Tomatometer scores between **50%** and **70%** for wide releases [[^]](https://rdrr.io/cran/Lock5Data/man/HollywoodMovies.html)[[^]](https://github.com/divyanshi14/Rotten_Tomatoes_Movie_Rating_Analysis)[[^]](https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/box-office-tomatometer-the-studio-winners-of-2023/)[[^]](https://github.com/richesinrr0/microsoft_movie_analysis). While 'Sight' (**63%**) falls within this expected range [[^]](https://collider.com/angel-studios-ww2-movie-truth-and-treason-box-office-3-million/)[[^]](https://rdrr.io/cran/Lock5Data/man/HollywoodMovies.html)[[^]](https://github.com/divyanshi14/Rotten_Tomatoes_Movie_Rating_Analysis)[[^]](https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/box-office-tomatometer-the-studio-winners-of-2023/)[[^]](https://github.com/richesinrr0/microsoft_movie_analysis), 'Sketch' (**97%**) far exceeds it, performing even better than the 80-**90%** threshold commonly associated with "Certified Fresh" action films [[^]](https://collider.com/sketch-global-box-office-5-million/)[[^]](https://rdrr.io/cran/Lock5Data/man/HollywoodMovies.html)[[^]](https://github.com/divyanshi14/Rotten_Tomatoes_Movie_Rating_Analysis)[[^]](https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/box-office-tomatometer-the-studio-winners-of-2023/)[[^]](https://github.com/richesinrr0/microsoft_movie_analysis).

## Is there any available data from test screenings or early industry buzz for 'Runner' (2026) that could serve as a leading indicator for its eventual Tomatometer score?

Tomatometer Score Status | Not available as of September 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/runner-2026/) |
Early Buzz Indicator | No quantitative indicators from test screenings or industry buzz [[^]](https://www.cinemasight.com/film-preview-runner-2026/) |
Theatrical Release Date | September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026) |

**No early indicators currently exist for 'Runner's' potential Tomatometer score**

No early indicators currently exist for 'Runner's' potential Tomatometer score. As of September 1, 2026, the film 'Runner' does not yet have an official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score or any critic reviews listed [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/runner-2026/). There is also no publicly available data from test screenings or specific "early industry buzz" that could serve as a quantitative indicator for the film's potential Tomatometer score [[^]](https://www.cinemasight.com/film-preview-runner-2026/).

Industry coverage for 'Runner' primarily consists of promotional materials. Current industry coverage for 'Runner' has been limited to trailer breakdowns, casting announcements, and general promotional hype from its distributor, Angel Studios [[^]](https://www.cinemasight.com/film-preview-runner-2026/)[[^]](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/2119677-runner-teaser-trailer-owen-wilson-alan-ritchson-release-date)[[^]](https://collider.com/runner-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson/)[[^]](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/2163577-runner-final-trailer-alan-ritchson-owen-wilson-action-movie)[[^]](https://screenrant.com/alan-ritchson-runner-movie-trailer-owen-wilson/)[[^]](https://theplaylist.net/runner-trailer-owen-wilson-alan-ritchson-lead-scott-waughs-race-against-time-action-thriller-20260413/). The film is scheduled for release in theaters on September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026).

## What do the historical Rotten Tomatoes scores for director Scott Waugh's and lead actor Alan Ritchson's previous action films indicate for 'Runner's' potential critical reception?

Director Scott Waugh's lowest RT score | Expend4bles (14%) [[^]](https://legacy.prod.metacritic.com/person/scott-waugh) |
Actor Alan Ritchson's highest recent RT score | Motor City (74%) [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/war_machine) |
Runner release date | September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(upcoming_film)) |

**Director Scott Waugh's action films typically receive mixed-to-negative critical reception**

Director Scott Waugh's action films typically receive mixed-to-negative critical reception. His filmography includes Act of Valor (**28%**), Need for Speed (**23%**), 6 Below: Miracle on the Mountain (**22%**), Hidden Strike (**54%**), and Expend4bles (**14%**) [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/scott_waugh)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Waugh)[[^]](https://www.metacritic.com/person/scott-waugh/)[[^]](https://legacy.prod.metacritic.com/person/scott-waugh).

Alan Ritchson's recent action films show a positive critical trend. Films featuring Ritchson, such as The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (**68%**), War Machine (**66%**), and the upcoming Motor City (**74%**), indicate a more favorable critical reception for his recent projects [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/alan_ritchson)[[^]](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/features/2165840-best-alan-ritchson-movies-ranked-2026-motor-city)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/war_machine).

'Runner' combines a director with mixed reception and an actor with recent praise. The upcoming action comedy-thriller, 'Runner', directed by Scott Waugh and starring Alan Ritchson, is scheduled for release on September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(upcoming_film)). This project unites a director with a history of lower critical scores and an actor whose recent action films have garnered higher praise.

## What Could Change the Odds

**The upcoming releases of two similarly titled films in September 2026 present key catalysts.** "Runner," an action-comedy-thriller starring Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson, distributed by Angel Studios, is scheduled for a US theatrical release on September 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.angel.com/movies/runner)[[^]](https://www.fandango.com/runner-2026-246493/movie-overview)[[^]](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt31349844/). "The Runner," a psychological thriller starring Gal Gadot, is set for a streaming release on September 2, 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runner_(2026_American_film)). As of September 1, 2026, neither film has a Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, as they have not yet been widely reviewed by critics [[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_runner_2026)[[^]](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt31349844/).

**The absence of critical reception means market probabilities for Rotten Tomatoes scores remain unformed.** While general entertainment prediction markets exist, there is no specific widespread public **market** consensus prediction for these films' Rotten Tomatoes scores readily accessible [[^]](https://app.storyincmedia.com/markets)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/entertainment). The film "Runner" (starring Alan Ritchson/Owen Wilson) is traded on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) under the symbol RUNNR and is currently in its "Wrap" phase [[^]](https://www.hsx.com/security/view/RUNNR). The eventual releases and subsequent critic reviews will introduce new data, acting as catalysts for **market** adjustments related to film performance metrics.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 21, 2026
- **Closes:** September 14, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The upcoming releases of two similarly titled films in September 2026 present key catalysts.
- "Runner," an action-comedy-thriller starring Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson, distributed by Angel Studios, is scheduled for a US theatrical release on September 11, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- "The Runner," a psychological thriller starring Gal Gadot, is set for a streaming release on September 2, 2026 [^] .
- As of September 1, 2026, neither film has a Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, as they have not yet been widely reviewed by critics [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXRT-DOG-42: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-DOG-37: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-87: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-82: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-77: YES (Aug 31, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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