# Instacart App Downloads in August

August 2026

Updated: September 1, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: App Downloads

HTML: /markets/financials/app-downloads/instacart-app-downloads-in-august/

## Short Answer

**Instacart app downloads in August 2026 are likely to exceed 110% of the prior year's volume, driven by 19 consecutive months of growth, recent acceleration in daily download rates, and 14% year-over-year Gross Transaction Value growth in Q2 2026.** The **market** prices this outcome at **99.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Since last update (~24h): The model-led probability for "Above 130" rose +14.8pp to 33.6%, significantly widening the edge.** - For "Above 125", the **model**-led **probability** increased +8.1pp, causing the edge to flip.
- The **probability** for "Above 140" dropped -17.8pp; the **market** also decreased -18.0pp.
- **Model**-led **probability** for "Above 135" fell by -12.6pp, resulting in a compressed edge.

**- - Downloads above 110% are expected from 19 consecutive months of app growth.** - Downloads above **125%** are supported by **16.7%** growth in estimated daily rates.
- Above **130%** appears plausible given strong Q2 GTV and the August 25 app update.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Instacart's August 24 Kroger Co. partnership and August 25 app update are driving download expectations, leaving the **market** 16.6pp below the **model**.

The significant price volatility in this market during late August appears driven by data confusion rather than fundamental news. A 35.0 percentage point spike on August 29 was likely caused by a misattribution of app performance data, specifically confusion with a surge in the unrelated FOMO social trading app. The subsequent large moves, including a 51.0pp spike on August 30 and a sharp 82.0pp drop on August 31, lack clear catalysts in the available research. An earlier 75.0 percentage point drop on August 22 also has no identified driver.

This price action is inconsistent with reported metrics for Instacart. The app saw an average of 11,667 daily downloads across iOS and Android in August, a 16.7% growth over the preceding three months. In the 30 days leading up to August 25, the app recorded over 415,000 downloads on iOS alone. The market's final price of 17.0% reflects a significant reversal from mid-August, when prediction markets indicated an 80-90% probability that monthly downloads would surpass the 120,000-125,000 level.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 17.0% | 33.6% | Model higher by 16.6pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 33.6% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 17.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +16.6pp
- Expected Return: +97.8%
- R-Score: 2.37
- Total Volume: 43,368 contracts
- 24h Volume: 404 contracts
- Open Interest: 7,131 contracts

- Expiration: September 7, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 130

#### 📉 August 31, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Price decreased from 99.0% to 17.0%

**What happened:** The provided research does not support the occurrence of an 82.0 percentage point drop in Instacart app downloads in August 2026 [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)[[2]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[3]](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)[[4]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[5]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)[[6]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)[[7]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html). Instead, August 2026 saw several positive developments, including Q2 financial results showing accelerating growth and new partnerships with retailers like Kroger, Costco, and Academy Sports + Outdoors, which would typically indicate increased app usage and engagement [[2]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[3]](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)[[4]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[5]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)[[6]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)[[7]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html). Therefore, a primary driver for the asserted market movement cannot be identified from the available evidence, and social media activity was irrelevant as the movement itself is not substantiated.

#### 📈 August 30, 2026: 51.0pp spike

Price increased from 48.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for a 51.0 percentage point spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" prediction market on August 30, 2026. Available data indicates no specific evidence of such a spike linked to social media or other catalysts on that date [[8]](https://orrery.me/markets/lol-wb-nip-2026-08-13-game2). Furthermore, no publicly available SEC filings or verified news sources confirm a 51.0pp app download spike occurring on August 30, 2026 [[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/0001579091-26-000040-index.html). While Instacart released an app update on August 25, 2026, associated with a Kroger partnership and positive rating increases [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes), this occurred before the specified date and is not linked to the alleged spike. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, as the premise of the specific price movement itself lacks supporting evidence in the provided sources.

#### 📈 August 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Price increased from 13.0% to 48.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 35.0 percentage point price spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" market on August 29, 2026, was likely a misattribution of app performance data [[10]](https://solanacompass.com/news/fomo-social-trading-app-enters-us-iphone-finance-top-3-surpassing-cash-app)[[11]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fomo-app-surpasses-cash-app-in-us-iphone-finance-rankings/)[[12]](https://news.bitcoin.com/finance/fomo-trading-app-top-5-us-finance-charts/). This spike appears to stem from confusion with the significant surge of the FOMO social trading app in August 2026, which climbed to top US iPhone Finance rankings [[10]](https://solanacompass.com/news/fomo-social-trading-app-enters-us-iphone-finance-top-3-surpassing-cash-app)[[11]](https://cryptobriefing.com/fomo-app-surpasses-cash-app-in-us-iphone-finance-rankings/)[[12]](https://news.bitcoin.com/finance/fomo-trading-app-top-5-us-finance-charts/). Instacart's own app update and Kroger partnership on August 25, 2026, did not result in a reported download spike of this magnitude, nor do official filings support such a movement [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)[[13]](https://app-pulse.app/app/instacart-groceries-and-food)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/0001579091-26-000040-index.html). While FOMO is a social trading app, the available information does not detail specific social media activity directly causing or accelerating this particular Instacart market confusion, suggesting social media was mostly noise in this event.

### Outcome: Above 125

#### 📈 August 27, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 24.0% to 62.0%

**What happened:** The 38.0 percentage point spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" prediction market on August 27, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news regarding a significant app update [[14]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[15]](https://picksbyodds.com/markets/). On August 25, 2026, Instacart released version 9.31.1, which led to a 0.7-star rating increase following backend fixes and an announcement of a partnership with Kroger [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes). This positive development, suggesting improved user experience and expanded market reach, likely increased investor confidence in Instacart exceeding 125% year-over-year app downloads [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)[[14]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07). Social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant from the available sources.

#### 📈 August 25, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 24.0%

**What happened:** Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives from key figures were identified. The most likely primary driver for the prediction market spike was Instacart's announcement on August 25, 2026, of an exclusive same-day delivery partnership with Petsense by Tractor Supply [[16]](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CART/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-8jmu4jf6mklk.html). This traditional news event coincided with the price movement and likely led market participants to anticipate increased app downloads due to the promotional nature of the partnership [[16]](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CART/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-8jmu4jf6mklk.html). It is important to note, however, that the 13.0 percentage point spike may reflect broader market volatility rather than a confirmed metric specific to Instacart's app downloads [[14]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07).

Sources:

1. [Instacart 9.31.1 Update Sparks 0.7-Star Rating Boost After Kroger Partnership | MWM](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)
2. [www.defenseworld.net](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)
3. [www.fool.com](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)
4. [www.defenseworld.net](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)
5. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)
6. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)
7. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html)
8. [LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orrery](https://orrery.me/markets/lol-wb-nip-2026-08-13-game2)
9. [EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001579091-26-000040](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/0001579091-26-000040-index.html)
10. [FOMO App Climbs to Top 3 in US iPhone Finance Rankings, Surpassing Cash App | Solana Compass](https://solanacompass.com/news/fomo-social-trading-app-enters-us-iphone-finance-top-3-surpassing-cash-app)
11. [Fomo app surpasses Cash App in US iPhone finance rankings](https://cryptobriefing.com/fomo-app-surpasses-cash-app-in-us-iphone-finance-rankings/)
12. [FOMO Cracks Top 5 US Finance Charts, Passes Kalshi and Cash App](https://news.bitcoin.com/finance/fomo-trading-app-top-5-us-finance-charts/)
13. [Instacart: Groceries & Food App Store Profile: Metadata, Screenshots & Version History | AppPulse](https://app-pulse.app/app/instacart-groceries-and-food)
14. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)
15. [All 292 Prediction Markets | PicksByOdds](https://picksbyodds.com/markets/)
16. [Instacart, Petsense Launch Exclusive Same-Day Delivery | CART Stock News](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CART/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-8jmu4jf6mklk.html)

## Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 130" contract, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if Instacart App Downloads for August 2026 exceed 130. Conversely, a "No" resolution is triggered if the downloads are 130 or fewer. The market covers app download data specifically for August 2026, with the maximum payout scheduled for September 6, 2026. No special settlement conditions are specified.

## Market Discussion

Instacart's app maintained an average download rate of approximately 11,667 per day across iOS and Android in August 2026 [[1]](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/app-downloads), with an August 25, 2026, app update resulting in a 0.7-star rating increase [[2]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes). The company announced strong Q2 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, which contributed to bullish market sentiment and high probabilities in prediction markets for increased app downloads [[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[4]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-302845378.html)[[5]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm)[[6]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[7]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXCARTAPP-26SEP07)[[8]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[9]](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/sentiment). As of September 1, 2026, no specific total app download counts for August 2026 have been publicly disclosed in official filings or by experts [[10]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/0001579091-26-000040-index.html).

Sources:

1. [Instacart App Downloads: ~11.7K/Day & Growth Trends 2026 | AltIndex](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/app-downloads)
2. [Instacart 9.31.1 Update Sparks 0.7-Star Rating Boost After...](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)
3. [CART Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcripts](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)
4. [Instacart Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-302845378.html)
5. [Maplebear Inc. (CART) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm)
6. [Instacart App Downloads in August Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)
7. [Instacart App Downloads in August | Prediction Markets](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXCARTAPP-26SEP07)
8. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)
9. [Instacart (CART) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 95/100 | AltIndex](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/sentiment)
10. [EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001579091-26-000040](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/0001579091-26-000040-index.html)

## How did Instacart's strategic moves in late August 2026—specifically the Kroger partnership and Arpalus acquisition—impact app download velocity?

Kroger Joint Service Launch | August 24, 2026 [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Customers-Can-Shop-for-Groceries-and-Prescriptions-in-a-Single-Order/default.aspx)[[2]](https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/8/24/kroger-connects-with-instacart-so-customers-can-shop-for-groceries-and-prescriptions-in-a-single-order)[[3]](https://www.fb101.com/kroger-instacart-grocery-prescription-single-order-delivery-302858537) |
Arpalus Acquisition Focus | Internal enhancements [[4]](https://www.photonics.com/Articles/Instacart-Acquires-Retail-Computer-Vision/a72499)[[5]](https://perishablenews.com/retailfoodservice/instacart-acquires-retail-shelf-intelligence-tech-firm-to-advance-real-time-data-across-grocery-retail/)[[6]](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/instacart-acquires-arpalus-ai-inventory-computer-vision-ecommerce/825494/)[[7]](https://www.marketscale.com/industries/retail/instacarts-arpalus-acquisition-puts-computer-vision-at-the-center-of-ai-driven-grocery-retail) |
Predicted August 2026 App Download Performance | 76-97% confidence of positive year-over-year [[8]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07) |

**Instacart implemented two distinct strategic initiatives in late August 2026**

Instacart implemented two distinct strategic initiatives in late August 2026. On August 24, 2026, the company launched a consumer-facing joint service with The Kroger Co., allowing customers to order groceries and eligible prescriptions in a single transaction across nearly all Kroger banners nationwide via the Instacart platform [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Customers-Can-Shop-for-Groceries-and-Prescriptions-in-a-Single-Order/default.aspx)[[2]](https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/8/24/kroger-connects-with-instacart-so-customers-can-shop-for-groceries-and-prescriptions-in-a-single-order)[[3]](https://www.fb101.com/kroger-instacart-grocery-prescription-single-order-delivery-302858537). This partnership was designed to integrate shopping for both groceries and medications [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Customers-Can-Shop-for-Groceries-and-Prescriptions-in-a-Single-Order/default.aspx)[[2]](https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/8/24/kroger-connects-with-instacart-so-customers-can-shop-for-groceries-and-prescriptions-in-a-single-order)[[3]](https://www.fb101.com/kroger-instacart-grocery-prescription-single-order-delivery-302858537). In contrast, Instacart's acquisition of Arpalus, a computer vision and shelf-intelligence company, was primarily focused on internal enhancements, aiming to improve fulfillment accuracy, inventory management, and in-store AI capabilities, rather than being a direct consumer-facing feature intended to increase app downloads [[4]](https://www.photonics.com/Articles/Instacart-Acquires-Retail-Computer-Vision/a72499)[[5]](https://perishablenews.com/retailfoodservice/instacart-acquires-retail-shelf-intelligence-tech-firm-to-advance-real-time-data-across-grocery-retail/)[[6]](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/instacart-acquires-arpalus-ai-inventory-computer-vision-ecommerce/825494/)[[7]](https://www.marketscale.com/industries/retail/instacarts-arpalus-acquisition-puts-computer-vision-at-the-center-of-ai-driven-grocery-retail).

Instacart's app download performance for August 2026 showed positive **market** sentiment. As of September 1, 2026, prediction markets indicated a high **confidence** level of approximately 76-**97%** that Instacart's year-over-year app download performance for August 2026 would be positive [[8]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07). However, the provided information does not contain specific details on how either the Kroger partnership or the Arpalus acquisition individually impacted Instacart's app download velocity for that period.

Sources:

1. [Kroger Customers Can Shop for Groceries and...](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Customers-Can-Shop-for-Groceries-and-Prescriptions-in-a-Single-Order/default.aspx)
2. [Kroger teams with Instacart so customers can shop for...](https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/8/24/kroger-connects-with-instacart-so-customers-can-shop-for-groceries-and-prescriptions-in-a-single-order)
3. [Kroger, Instacart Deliver Groceries + Rx in One Order](https://www.fb101.com/kroger-instacart-grocery-prescription-single-order-delivery-302858537)
4. [Instacart Acquires Retail Computer Vision Specialist Arpalus](https://www.photonics.com/Articles/Instacart-Acquires-Retail-Computer-Vision/a72499)
5. [Instacart Acquires Retail Shelf Intelligence Tech Firm to...](https://perishablenews.com/retailfoodservice/instacart-acquires-retail-shelf-intelligence-tech-firm-to-advance-real-time-data-across-grocery-retail/)
6. [Instacart acquires shelf-scanning technology startup](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/instacart-acquires-arpalus-ai-inventory-computer-vision-ecommerce/825494/)
7. [Instacart acquires Arpalus to embed computer vision in groce](https://www.marketscale.com/industries/retail/instacarts-arpalus-acquisition-puts-computer-vision-at-the-center-of-ai-driven-grocery-retail)
8. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)

## What do leading app intelligence platforms project for Instacart's daily download rate and growth trajectory through August 2026?

Probability downloads > 120% YoY | 90% (Kalshi) [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[2]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[3]](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help) |
Probability downloads > 125% YoY | 80% (Kalshi) [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[2]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[3]](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help) |
Consecutive months of app download growth | 19 months (AltIndex) [[3]](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help) |

**While leading app intelligence platforms do not explicitly project Instacart's daily download rate for August 2026, prediction markets indicate strong growth**

While leading app intelligence platforms do not explicitly project Instacart's daily download rate for August 2026, prediction markets indicate strong growth. Kalshi's prediction markets, for instance, show a **90%** **probability** that Instacart's app downloads for August 2026 will be "Above 120," signifying **120%** of the prior year's volume. Additionally, there is an **80%** **probability** for downloads to be "Above 125" [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[2]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[3]](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help).

Consistent growth trends and financial forecasts support this positive outlook. Alternative data providers like AltIndex corroborate this optimistic **market** sentiment, confirming a consistent positive growth trajectory for Instacart's app. The company has demonstrated sustained upward momentum, not experiencing a down month in app download growth for 19 consecutive months leading up to August 2026 [[3]](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help). This is further reinforced by Instacart's official financial report for Q3 2026, which projects a **14%** year-over-year growth in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) at the midpoint, signaling continued consumer demand [[4]](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)[[5]](https://investors.instacart.com/static-files/9c645070-fde7-4f49-bac8-a0439d67ab7f).

Sources:

1. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)
2. [Instacart App Downloads in August Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)
3. [Prediction Markets Are Booming. Alternative Data Could...](https://altindex.com/news/prediction-markets-booming-how-alternative-data-can-help)
4. [Instacart Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)
5. [Q2 2026 Press Release](https://investors.instacart.com/static-files/9c645070-fde7-4f49-bac8-a0439d67ab7f)

## How did Instacart's app download growth in August 2026 compare to that of its primary competitors, DoorDash and Uber Eats?

Instacart app index growth (Aug 2026) | 97% probability index above 100 (Kalshi prediction market) [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07) |
Instacart app download growth rate (Aug 2026) | Not quantifiable from available data [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai) |
DoorDash & Uber Eats app download growth rate (Aug 2026) | Not quantifiable from available data [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai) |

**A direct comparison of Instacart's, DoorDash's, and Uber Eats' app download growth rates for August 2026 cannot be made from the provided research [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai)**

A direct comparison of Instacart's, DoorDash's, and Uber Eats' app download growth rates for August 2026 cannot be made from the provided research [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai). The available dataset lacks quantifiable, source-cited app download growth rates for these companies specifically for that period, and comparative third-party searches did not yield a recent report detailing such figures [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai). Furthermore, the expert-curated sources provided do not contain publicly available data regarding app download growth for these companies specifically for August 2026 [[4]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00927541/1997421/sb/ALL)[[5]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00795211/1996406/sb/ALL). Thus, the available information explicitly states it is not possible to quantify or retrieve app download metrics for this period with the given environment data [[2]](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)[[3]](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai).

Prediction markets and sales growth do not provide suitable app download metrics for comparison. A Kalshi prediction **market** indicated a **97%** **probability** of Instacart's app index being above 100 in August 2026, suggesting year-over-year growth [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07). However, this does not provide a quantifiable app download growth rate suitable for direct comparison with competitors [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07). Separately, Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats all reported strong sales growth in their quarterly results during August 2026, reflecting continued consumer demand across their respective delivery segments [[6]](https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-still-favor-doordash-uber-eats-despite-costs-delivery-2026-8)[[7]](https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/doordash-uber-eats-instacart-thriving-100015850.html). It is important to note that these figures pertain to sales performance, not app download growth [[6]](https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-still-favor-doordash-uber-eats-despite-costs-delivery-2026-8)[[7]](https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/doordash-uber-eats-instacart-thriving-100015850.html).

Sources:

1. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)
2. [sensortower.com](https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-food-delivery-and-rideshare-apps-2025?utm_source=openai)
3. [similarweb.com](https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ecommerce-news/instacart-ipo/?utm_source=openai)
4. [Schedule B for ALL Line #'s](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00927541/1997421/sb/ALL)
5. [Schedule B for ALL Line #'s](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00795211/1996406/sb/ALL)
6. [Consumers Still Favor DoorDash and Uber Eats Despite...](https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-still-favor-doordash-uber-eats-despite-costs-delivery-2026-8)
7. [DoorDash, Uber Eats and Instacart Are Thriving as...](https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/doordash-uber-eats-instacart-thriving-100015850.html)

## Which data sources and methodologies are considered authoritative for determining final monthly app download counts for publicly traded companies like Instacart?

Authoritative iOS App Downloads | Apple App Store Connect/App Store Analytics App Downloads report [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9) |
Authoritative Android App Downloads | Google Play Console monthly install-related reports [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9) |
Prediction Market Authoritative Source | Carbon Arc (for Kalshi market on Instacart app downloads) [[7]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07) |

**Store-native reports are definitive for app download counts**

Store-native reports are definitive for app download counts. For publicly traded companies such as Instacart, the most authoritative data sources for determining final monthly app download counts are the internal reports provided directly by Apple App Store Connect for iOS and Google Play Console for Android [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9). Apple App Store Connect's App Store Analytics App Downloads report furnishes canonical monthly counts for iOS, which include redownloads, after Apple has aggregated its data [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9). Correspondingly, the Google Play Console's monthly install-related reports offer finalized data on metrics like users, devices, and install events, serving as the canonical source for Android [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9). It is important to note that publicly traded companies' standard SEC financial filings typically do not report definitive app download counts [[8]](https://sensortower.com/)[[9]](https://asomobile.net/en/market-intelligence/)[[10]](https://appfigures.com/)[[11]](https://amplitude.com/compare/best-mobile-app-analytics-tools).

Third-party platforms offer estimations, while markets define their sources. Mobile **market** intelligence platforms, including Sensor Tower, Appfigures, ASOMobile, and AppFollow, provide estimated download data by utilizing proprietary algorithms, global consumer panels, and app store API metrics [[8]](https://sensortower.com/)[[9]](https://asomobile.net/en/market-intelligence/)[[10]](https://appfigures.com/)[[12]](https://appfollow.io/blog/app-marketing-intelligence)[[11]](https://amplitude.com/compare/best-mobile-app-analytics-tools)[[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9). These platforms are valuable for external benchmarking and comparative analysis, but they are not considered canonical ledgers for official counts [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9). In unique contexts such as prediction markets, like the Kalshi **market** for Instacart's August 2026 app downloads, the authoritative data source is explicitly outlined by the **market**'s contractual rules, which in this instance relies on a data provider called 'Carbon Arc' [[7]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07). Instacart's provided Q2 2026 earnings call transcript excerpts do not disclose a specific methodology for measuring app installs or downloads [[1]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)[[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)[[4]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9).

Sources:

1. [CART_Q22026, Page: 3](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=3)
2. [CART_Q22026, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=4)
3. [CART_Q22026, Page: 1](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=1)
4. [CART_Q22026, Page: 2](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=2)
5. [CART_Q22026, Page: 6](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=6)
6. [CART_Q22026, Page: 9](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/CART/CART_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260901%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260901T121508Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=0522fdb81f05a3e55ce958cd2a75136dccfbc6c8e96b597ec28852a39192d585#page=9)
7. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)
8. [Digital Intelligence & App Data Analysis by Sensor Tower](https://sensortower.com/)
9. [Mobile App Market Intelligence & Competitor Analysis](https://asomobile.net/en/market-intelligence/)
10. [Appfigures: App Intelligence, ASO Tools & Analytics](https://appfigures.com/)
11. [10 Best Mobile App Analytics Tools in 2026](https://amplitude.com/compare/best-mobile-app-analytics-tools)
12. [Your Guide to App Marketing Intelligence: Spy. Learn. Win](https://appfollow.io/blog/app-marketing-intelligence)

## What was the measurable impact of the August 25 app update (v9.31.1) on Instacart's user ratings and organic download conversion rates?

App update release date | August 25, 2026 [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes) |
App rating increase | 0.7 stars [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes) |
New average app rating | 3.66 stars [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes) |

**Instacart's app update significantly boosted user ratings in late August**

Instacart's app update significantly boosted user ratings in late August. The v9.31.1 app update, released on August 25, 2026, led to a measurable increase in Instacart's average app rating. The rating improved by 0.7 stars, moving from 2.96 to 3.66 stars [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes). This positive change was attributed to backend fixes and a beneficial halo effect from a significant Kroger partnership announcement on August 24, rather than the introduction of new user-facing features [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes).

App downloads did not show a direct impact from the update. Despite the increase in app ratings, there were no specific reports detailing a measurable impact on organic download conversion rates directly attributable to the v9.31.1 update itself [[1]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes). The Kalshi prediction **market** for "Instacart App Downloads in August" (2026) monitors year-over-year performance against a baseline of 100, with values above 100 indicating growth [[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07).

Sources:

1. [Instacart 9.31.1 Update Sparks 0.7-Star Rating Boost After...](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)
2. [Instacart App Downloads in August — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcartapp-26sep07)

## What Could Change the Odds

**Instacart reported Q2 2026 gross transaction value (GTV) of $10.351 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $313 million, up 19% year-over-year [[1]](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)[[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[4]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm).** Q2 orders rose **9%** to 90.3 million, and revenue increased **14%** to **$1.043** billion. For Q3 2026, the company guided GTV to **$10.3**–**$10.55** billion and adjusted EBITDA to **$320**–**$340** million [[1]](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)[[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[4]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm). In the 30 days preceding August 25, 2026, the Instacart app recorded over 415,000 iOS downloads in the United States [[5]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes). As of August 2026, the estimated daily download volume for Instacart across iOS and Android was approximately 11,667, showing **16.7%** growth over the prior three months [[6]](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/app-downloads). Prediction markets in early August 2026 indicated a **90%** **probability** that August 2026 Instacart app downloads would exceed 120,000 [[7]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07). However, Instacart had not publicly disclosed specific app download figures for August 2026 as of September 1, 2026 [[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000040/q22026pressrelease.htm). Sensor Tower's public app profile showed "Downloads... Last Month 500K" for Instacart, but the page text did not explicitly confirm "Last Month" as August 2026 [[9]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)[[11]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[12]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)[[13]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)[[14]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html).

**Instacart's business strategy focuses on expanding enterprise partnerships, such as Storefront Pro and fulfillment solutions, and enhancing its retail media network, Carrot Ads [[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000040/q22026pressrelease.htm)[[15]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000032/q12026pressrelease.htm).** The company also develops AI-driven conversational shopping tools, including Cart Assistant and Claude integration [[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000040/q22026pressrelease.htm)[[15]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000032/q12026pressrelease.htm)[[16]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000036/cart-20260331.htm). Recent partnerships announced in late August 2026, which could drive app engagement, include same-day delivery for Academy Sports + Outdoors, on-demand delivery for Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, and Champs Sports with a promotion through August 24, 2026, and an exclusive same-day delivery partnership with Petsense by Tractor Supply through September 30, 2026 [[16]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000036/cart-20260331.htm)[[9]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)[[11]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[12]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)[[13]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)[[14]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html). Additionally, Costco custom cakes and party platters became available for nationwide delivery, and Kroger enabled combined grocery and eligible prescription orders via Instacart [[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[7]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)[[17]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/instacart-cart-stock-climbs-as-ad-growth-fuels-cash-rich-qua)[[9]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)[[11]](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)[[12]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)[[13]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)[[14]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html). Bullish catalysts cited include strong growth in advertising and enterprise segments, share buybacks, and expansion into non-grocery retail [[17]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/instacart-cart-stock-climbs-as-ad-growth-fuels-cash-rich-qua)[[18]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/how-investors-may-respond-to-maplebear-cart-expanding-beyond). Bearish concerns encompass FTC fee scrutiny, margin pressure from advertising costs, and intense competition [[17]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/instacart-cart-stock-climbs-as-ad-growth-fuels-cash-rich-qua).

Sources:

1. [Instacart Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)
2. [Instacart signals strong quarter with forecasts above...](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)
3. [CART Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcripts](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)
4. [Maplebear Inc. (CART) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm)
5. [Instacart 9.31.1 Update Sparks 0.7-Star Rating Boost After Kroger Partnership | MWM](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)
6. [Instacart App Downloads: ~11.7K/Day & Growth Trends 2026 | AltIndex](https://altindex.com/ticker/cart/app-downloads)
7. [Instacart App Downloads in August Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcartapp/instacart-app-downloads/kxcartapp-26sep07)
8. [Press Release, dated August](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000040/q22026pressrelease.htm)
9. [www.defenseworld.net](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/31/canada-pension-plan-investment-board-purchases-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)
10. [www.fool.com](https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/08/28/maplebear-ceo-chris-rogers-sells-7-606-shares/)
11. [www.defenseworld.net](https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/08/28/bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-buys-new-shares-in-maplebear-inc-cart.html)
12. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-ceo-to-participate-in-fireside-chat-hosted-by-goldman-sachs-302860784.html)
13. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/costco-custom-cakes-and-party-platters-now-available-for-delivery-on-instacart-302860472.html)
14. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/instacart-and-petsense-by-tractor-supply-launch-exclusive-same-day-delivery-partnership-302858578.html)
15. [Document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000032/q12026pressrelease.htm)
16. [cart-20260331](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579091/000157909126000036/cart-20260331.htm)
17. [Instacart (CART) Stock Climbs As Ad Growth Fuels Cash Rich Quarter - Simply Wall St News](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/instacart-cart-stock-climbs-as-ad-growth-fuels-cash-rich-qua)
18. [How Investors May Respond To Maplebear (CART) Expanding Beyond Groceries With Academy Sports Partnership - Simply Wall St News](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-retailing/nasdaq-cart/maplebear/news/how-investors-may-respond-to-maplebear-cart-expanding-beyond)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 14, 2026
- **Closes:** September 07, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Instacart reported Q2 2026 gross transaction value (GTV) of **$10.351** billion, marking a **14%** year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching **$313** million, up **19%** year-over-year [[1]](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)[[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[4]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm).
- Q2 orders rose **9%** to 90.3 million, and revenue increased **14%** to **$1.043** billion.
- For Q3 2026, the company guided GTV to **$10.3**–**$10.55** billion and adjusted EBITDA to **$320**–**$340** million [[1]](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)[[3]](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)[[4]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm).
- In the 30 days preceding August 25, 2026, the Instacart app recorded over 415,000 iOS downloads in the United States [[5]](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes).

Sources:

1. [Instacart Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results](https://investors.instacart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/instacart-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/)
2. [Instacart signals strong quarter with forecasts above...](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/instacart-forecasts-key-quarterly-metrics-above-estimates-demand-strengthens-2026-08-06/)
3. [CART Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcripts](https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/CART-2Q26-transcript)
4. [Maplebear Inc. (CART) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/cart/0001579091-26-000042.htm)
5. [Instacart 9.31.1 Update Sparks 0.7-Star Rating Boost After Kroger Partnership | MWM](https://mwm.ai/articles/app-updates/instacart-9-31-1-update-sparks-0-7-star-rating-boost-in-august-2026-tied-to-backend-fixes)

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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