# Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q3

retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 2026

Updated: July 31, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies
KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/carvana-retail-vehicle-unit-sales-in-q3/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 2026 to be Above 200000, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.** Carvana management has guided for a sequential increase in Q3 2026 retail units compared to Q2 2026 sales of 197,325 units.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Retail unit sales are likely above 200,000 due to Carvana's sequential Q3 guidance.** - Sales above 220,000 appear less likely given macroeconomic headwinds and no high-end guidance.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**93.5%**) implies a +0.5pp gap over 93c **market**, expecting Carvana's Q3 sales growth despite macro headwinds.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 200000 | 90.0% | 93.5% | Model higher by 3.5pp |
| Above 215000 | 25.0% | 53.6% | Model higher by 28.6pp |
| Above 205000 | 58.0% | 88.0% | Model higher by 30.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 200000 | 90.0% | 93.5% |
| Above 215000 | 25.0% | 53.6% |
| Above 205000 | 58.0% | 88.0% |
| Above 220000 | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| Above 210000 | 51.0% | 73.1% |
| Above 225000 | 13.0% | 10.0% |

- Expiration: February 25, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market saw an explosive upward trend, moving from a 0.0% probability on July 30 to its current price of 93.0% just one day later. The primary catalyst for this move was a re-evaluation of company guidance. On July 30, the price surged 73.0 percentage points after traders assessed Carvana management's projection for a "sequential increase" in retail units sold for Q3 2026. Given that Q2 sales were reported at 197,325 units, any increase would place the Q3 figure close to or above the 200,000 unit threshold of this contract. The price then advanced another 20.0 percentage points on July 31 as the market continued to process this information.

The price action suggests a clear break from an initial state of uncertainty to strong conviction. The market has established a high near 93.0%, which currently serves as resistance. The prior level of 73.0% could be considered a minor support level, though it held for less than a day. Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the 93.0% price, indicates a high degree of confidence that Carvana's Q3 retail unit sales will resolve above 200,000.

It is critical to note that the total volume traded is extremely low, with only 11 contracts changing hands. This indicates that the dramatic price swings occurred in a very thin market. The price reflects the view of a small number of participants, and the lack of broad liquidity suggests that conviction may be less firm than the price level implies.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 200000

#### 📈 July 31, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 73.0% to 93.0%

**What happened:** The "20.0 percentage point spike" described in the prompt is linked to a prediction market concerning a U.S. invasion of Iran, not directly to Carvana's Q3 retail unit sales according to the provided information [[^]](https://thecryptopost.io/polymarket-odds-for-us-iran-invasion-by-2027-jump-to-31-5-on-44-6m/). While Carvana did announce Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, reporting 197,325 retail units and guiding for a sequential increase in Q3, its shares actually fell approximately 15% following the announcement due to other concerns [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ttnews.com/articles/carvana-earnings-q2-2026). Therefore, based on the available data, there is no evidence that this specific 20.0pp spike occurred in the Carvana prediction market, making it impossible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity.

### Outcome: Above 205000

#### 📈 July 30, 2026: 86.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 86.0%

**What happened:** The 86.0 percentage point spike on July 30, 2026, in the prediction market for Carvana's Q3 retail unit sales exceeding 205,000 units was primarily driven by a re-evaluation of the company's official Q3 guidance. Carvana had announced on July 29, 2026, a 'sequential increase' in retail units sold for Q3, building on Q2's record 197,325 units [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html). Despite an initial market consensus around 204,115 units and a broader stock decline on July 30 due to disappointing full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, prediction market participants appeared to interpret the 'sequential increase' more optimistically, concluding Q3 sales were highly likely to surpass the 205,000 threshold [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/cvna-stock-on-track-for-worst-day-in-6-months-after-2026-guidance-disappoints-but-wall-street-deems-near-term-profitability-pressure-temporary/cZN5J5lRJ2T)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html). Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as no related activity was observed in the provided information.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "YES" if Carvana's retail vehicle unit sales for Q3 are greater than 215,000, and "NO" if they are 215,000 or less. The market ends for trading on October 28 at 4:00 PM EDT. A maximum payout date of February 24, 2027, is specified, but no further special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

## Market Discussion

As of July 31, 2026, Carvana announced a sequential increase in Q3 2026 retail vehicle unit sales over Q2 2026's 197,325 units, but did not provide a specific numerical forecast [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html). Market consensus for Q3 retail unit sales is estimated at 204,115 units, and the company's non-specific guidance was negatively received by some market participants, contributing to post-earnings stock volatility [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://tickeron.com/earnings/CVNA/)[[^]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/why-did-cvna-stock-drop-after-hours-despite-q2-beat/cZNTeaKRJTo). Investor discourse currently emphasizes Carvana's full-year EBITDA guidance and the lack of precise unit-volume forecasting rather than specific Q3 unit sales [[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxcvna-26julsales)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxearningsmentioncvna/carvana/kxearningsmentioncvna-26jun30).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 200000 | 85% | 92% | 90% | $1,860.16 | $1,703.16 |
| Above 205000 | 66% | 73% | 58% | $1,389.04 | $881.96 |
| Above 210000 | 49% | 52% | 51% | $1,035.33 | $589.31 |
| Above 215000 | 24% | 31% | 25% | $1,553.99 | $1,060.08 |
| Above 220000 | 11% | 16% | 18% | $1,103.14 | $464 |
| Above 225000 | 7% | 13% | 13% | $391.24 | $304.24 |

## How did Carvana's retail unit sales growth in Q2 2026 compare to its primary competitor, CarMax?

Carvana Q2 2026 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales | 197,325 [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf) |
Carvana Q2 2026 Year-over-Year Increase | 38% [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf) |
CarMax Fiscal Q2 2026 Retail Used Vehicle Unit Sales | 199,729 [[^]](https://investors.carmax.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/CarMax-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170010/000117001025000115/q2fy26earningsrelease.htm) |

**Carvana achieved significant retail unit sales growth in calendar Q2 2026**

Carvana achieved significant retail unit sales growth in calendar Q2 2026. The company reported strong performance, reaching a record for retail vehicle unit sales. Carvana sold 197,325 units during this period, marking a significant **38%** increase compared to the previous year [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf).

CarMax experienced a decline in retail unit sales during its fiscal Q2 2026. CarMax's fiscal Q2 2026, which concluded on August 31, 2025, showed a different trend compared to Carvana. During this period, CarMax reported retail used vehicle unit sales of 199,729 units, which represents a **5.4%** decrease year-over-year [[^]](https://investors.carmax.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/CarMax-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170010/000117001025000115/q2fy26earningsrelease.htm).

A direct quarter-over-quarter comparison between companies is not feasible. Based on the available data, a direct comparison of retail unit sales growth between Carvana and CarMax for the same calendar quarter in 2026 is not entirely possible. Carvana's figures pertain to calendar Q2 2026, while CarMax's reported fiscal Q2 2026 ended on August 31, 2025, indicating different reporting periods for the two companies [[^]](https://investors.carmax.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/CarMax-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170010/000117001025000115/q2fy26earningsrelease.htm).

## What macroeconomic trends in Q3 2026, such as interest rates and consumer confidence, could impact Carvana's sales volume?

Inflation Expectation (1-year horizon) | 3.7% in June 2026 [[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2026/)[[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) |
Federal Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% since early 2026 [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532) |
Consumer Confidence Index | 90.8 in July 2026 (down from 92.2 in June) [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532) |

**Macroeconomic trends for Q3 2026 indicate persistent inflation and elevated interest rates will increase auto financing costs**

Macroeconomic trends for Q3 2026 indicate persistent inflation and elevated interest rates will increase auto financing costs. Inflation is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve's **2%** target, with a one-year horizon forecast of **3.7%** in June 2026 [[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-**model**-forecast-june-2026/)[[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707)[[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). This inflationary environment is expected to lead to further interest rate increases, thereby escalating auto financing costs and challenging consumer affordability [[^]](https://www.1834.com/insights/**market**-economic-outlook/)[[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/steady-growth-stubborn-inflation-q3-2026-outlook)[[^]](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html)[[^]](https://www.ubs.com/tw/tc/assetmanagement/insights/**market**-updates/articles/macro-quarterly-q3-2026/_jcr_content/root.940116709.file/PS9jb250ZW50L2RhbS9hc3NldHMvYXNzZXQtbWFuYWdlbWVudC1yZWltYWdpbmVkL2dsb2JhbC9ub2luZGV4L3N0YXRpYy9pbnNpZ2h0L21hcmtldC11cGRhdGVzL2RvY3MvbWFjcm8tcXVhcnRlcmx5LXEzLTIwMjYucGRm/macro-quarterly-q3-2026.pdf). The Federal funds rate has consistently held at **3.50%**–**3.75%** since early 2026, maintaining restrictive financing conditions that can reduce retail vehicle demand and financing conversion rates [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). Carvana has previously acknowledged that higher benchmark rates and its strategy to offer competitive consumer financing rates have impacted its profitability, confirming the direct influence of these rate conditions on its business **model** [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

Weak consumer **confidence**, despite resilience, will reshape used-car buyer behavior. Concurrently, consumer **confidence** has weakened, evidenced by negative composite consumer opinion indicators in Q2 2026 and reports of deteriorated expectations for future credit availability in June 2026 [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=782057&rid=205)[[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707). The Consumer **Confidence** Index softened to 90.8 in July 2026 from 92.2 in June, which typically reduces consumers' willingness to make significant purchases like vehicles, especially among price-sensitive used-car buyers [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). Despite these record-low sentiment indices, auto purchase demand has shown surprising resilience in mid-2026, as consumers continue to prioritize essential personal transportation despite higher borrowing costs [[^]](https://usedcarnews.com/auto-industry-updates/july-consumer-**confidence**-drop-what-it-means-for-auto-buyer-demand)[[^]](https://dealers.cargurus.com/blog/cargurus-intelligence-report---mid-year-2026)[[^]](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/what-the-feds-latest-rate-decision-means-for-car-shoppers/). Demand in the used vehicle **market** is increasingly driven by affordability, steering consumers towards longer loan terms or less expensive vehicle segments [[^]](https://www.blackbook.com/used-car-**market**-2026-where-values-stand-at-the-halfway-point/)[[^]](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/what-the-feds-latest-rate-decision-means-for-car-shoppers/)[[^]](https://theautowire.com/2026/07/20/used-car-prices-just-hit-27027-again-more-than-half-of-buyers-are-already-underwater-before-they-sign/). Nevertheless, Carvana anticipates a sequential increase in retail units sold in Q3 2026, suggesting that strong operational momentum and execution could partially mitigate these prevailing macroeconomic pressures [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

## What were the key takeaways from Carvana's Q2 2026 earnings call regarding its Q3 sales guidance and profitability outlook?

Q2 2026 Retail Vehicle Units Sold | 197,325 units (Q2 2026) [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf) |
Full-Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance | $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685) |
Stock Price Decline Post-Guidance | More than 20% [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html) |

**Carvana projected increased Q3 sales but lower-than-expected full-year profitability**

Carvana projected increased Q3 sales but lower-than-expected full-year profitability. The company guided for a sequential increase in retail vehicle unit sales for Q3 2026, building upon the 197,325 retail units sold in Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf). For its full-year 2026 profitability outlook, Carvana provided Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranging from **$2.7** billion to **$3.0** billion [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685). The **market** perceived this profitability guidance as falling below some analyst expectations [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/carvana-cvna-earnings-q2-2026.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685).

Stock declined over **20%** due to disappointing guidance. Following the release of its Q2 2026 results and forward guidance, Carvana's stock experienced a significant drop of more than **20%** [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html). This investor reaction was primarily attributed to the guidance missing analyst consensus expectations, despite the company's strong record financial performance achieved in Q2 [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html).

## What alternative data sources are available to track Carvana's sales momentum during Q3 2026 before the official earnings release?

Q2 2026 Retail Units Sold | 197,325 (Q2 2026 earnings release [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-shares-tumble-as-q3-profit-margin-growth-slows-despite-record-sales-4317542?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-earnings-up-next-investors-eye-fullyear-growth-outlook-93CH-4646499?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/evercore-isi-raises-carvana-stock-price-target-to-400-on-strong-demand-93CH-4633480?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B10-Q%2BCARVANA%2BCO.%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/26394889.html?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)) |
Q3 2026 Retail Units Guidance | Expected sequential increase (Carvana management guidance [[^]](https://pulserevops.com/industry-kpis/ik0349)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://tickeron.com/earnings/CVNA/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztxEzGnQJXk)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-shares-tumble-as-q3-profit-margin-growth-slows-despite-record-sales-4317542?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-earnings-up-next-investors-eye-fullyear-growth-outlook-93CH-4646499?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/evercore-isi-raises-carvana-stock-price-target-to-400-on-strong-demand-93CH-4633480?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B10-Q%2BCARVANA%2BCO.%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/26394889.html?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)) |
JXCE Sales Tracker Accuracy | Within 1% of actual quarterly results (Historically [[^]](https://www.jxcedata.com/post/the-value-of-alternative-data-a-carvana-case-study)[[^]](https://www.jxcedata.com/carvana)[[^]](https://sites.google.com/jxce-llc.com/cvna)) |

**Carvana projects sequential sales growth for Q3 2026 retail units**

Carvana projects sequential sales growth for Q3 2026 retail units. The company officially anticipates a sequential increase in sales for Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026 [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://tickeron.com/earnings/CVNA/)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-shares-tumble-as-q3-profit-margin-growth-slows-despite-record-sales-4317542?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-earnings-up-next-investors-eye-fullyear-growth-outlook-93CH-4646499?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-**market**-news/evercore-isi-raises-carvana-stock-price-target-to-400-on-strong-demand-93CH-4633480?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B10-Q%2BCARVANA%2BCO.%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/26394889.html?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/). This guidance is based on Carvana's Q2 2026 performance, during which the company reported 197,325 retail units sold [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-shares-tumble-as-q3-profit-margin-growth-slows-despite-record-sales-4317542?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-earnings-up-next-investors-eye-fullyear-growth-outlook-93CH-4646499?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-**market**-news/evercore-isi-raises-carvana-stock-price-target-to-400-on-strong-demand-93CH-4633480?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B10-Q%2BCARVANA%2BCO.%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/26394889.html?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/). Management's outlook consistently indicates expected sequential growth for Q3 2026 retail units [[^]](https://pulserevops.com/industry-kpis/ik0349)[[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2026.pdf)[[^]](https://tickeron.com/earnings/CVNA/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztxEzGnQJXk)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-shares-tumble-as-q3-profit-margin-growth-slows-despite-record-sales-4317542?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/carvana-earnings-up-next-investors-eye-fullyear-growth-outlook-93CH-4646499?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-**market**-news/evercore-isi-raises-carvana-stock-price-target-to-400-on-strong-demand-93CH-4633480?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B10-Q%2BCARVANA%2BCO.%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/26394889.html?utm_source=openai)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/).

Various alternative data sources offer insights into Carvana's sales momentum. JXCE provides proprietary Sales Tracker reports, derived from daily inventory changes, which have historically projected quarterly results within **1%** of actual figures [[^]](https://www.jxcedata.com/post/the-value-of-alternative-data-a-carvana-case-study)[[^]](https://www.jxcedata.com/carvana)[[^]](https://sites.google.com/jxce-llc.com/cvna). Additionally, broad alternative data platforms such as AltIndex monitor over 25 digital indicators for Carvana. These indicators encompass web traffic, app downloads, social media sentiment across platforms like Reddit, X, and Stocktwits, and job postings, all serving as leading proxies for demand [[^]](https://altindex.com/ticker/cvna).

Specialized tools and industry KPIs can further track Carvana's performance. Tools like the MarketCheck Dealer Group Health Monitor track real-time metrics such as retail velocity, days-on-**market**, and inventory health, providing signals that correlate with company-specific sales momentum [[^]](https://cowork.marketcheck.com/plugins/analyst/skills/dealer-group-health-monitor)[[^]](https://github.com/marketcheckhub/marketcheck-cowork-plugin/blob/main/plugins/analyst/README.md). Furthermore, industry-standard Key Performance Indicators for used vehicle retail performance, including inventory aging, days-to-sell, front-end profit per vehicle retailed (PVR), and recon cycle times, can be monitored through DMS integration or **market**-wide automotive data aggregators [[^]](https://pulserevops.com/industry-kpis/ik0349)[[^]](https://pulserevops.com/industry-kpis/ik0427).

## What specific operational initiatives or inventory strategies did Carvana announce for H2 2026 that could drive unit sales above Q2 levels?

ADESA sites with reconditioning in 2025 | 16 [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532) |
Expected annual retail units from ADESA expansion | Up to 2 million [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532) |
Expected annual retail units from 18 IRCs | Over 1 million [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532) |

**Carvana projects increased unit sales through strategic inventory expansion**

Carvana projects increased unit sales through strategic inventory expansion. The company anticipates a sequential increase in retail units sold in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000054/ex99_1q22026.htm). This projected growth is supported by various operational and inventory initiatives, including an increase in inventory, enhanced reconditioning capacity, quicker fulfillment processes, and improved overall execution [[^]](https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/07/29/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights.html)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD08Upxbo1U)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMOqtXHPR-k)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). Carvana's inventory strategy prioritizes expanding local inventory assortments in various regions to align with sales growth, noting that greater local availability boosts conversion rates and logistical efficiency [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights-020350032.html)[[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/07/29/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights.html). Management stated that inventory growth re-aligned with sales growth in mid-Q2, addressing a prior impediment [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

Carvana scales production capacity through site conversions and new builds. Key operational initiatives include increasing production capacity through conversions of ADESA sites, optimizing existing inspection centers, and developing a new fresh-build location [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights-020350032.html)[[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/07/29/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights.html). Carvana integrated reconditioning operations into 16 ADESA sites in 2025 and expects further ADESA expansion to contribute up to 2 million annual retail units. This is in addition to over 1 million units annually from its 18 Inspection and Reconditioning Centers (IRCs) when fully utilized [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). The company has also commenced work on a new fresh-build site to add further production capacity [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

Carvana leverages technology and logistics to enhance operations. The company is introducing internal operational tools such as Roll Call and Leader Hub, and is returning to a traditional mix of vehicle age and mileage [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights-020350032.html)[[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-co-cvna-q2-2026-050444051.html)[[^]](https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/07/29/carvana-q2-earnings-call-highlights.html). Carvana highlights a national acquisition **model**, centralized inventory pooling, and first-party logistics to facilitate nationwide vehicle movement and expedite delivery, which includes extending same-day delivery to Fort Myers on July 28 [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). Management also underscored the use of AI and workflow automation, including tools like CARLI, AI-driven purchasing algorithms, centralized scheduling, and the automation of underwriting and support functions [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Carvana reported an all-time quarterly record of 197,325 retail vehicle units sold in Q2 2026 [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html).** The company announced an expectation for a sequential increase in retail units sold for Q3 2026, though no specific numerical forecast was provided for Q3 [[^]](https://investors.carvana.com/news-releases/2026/07-29-2026-210525685)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532). This strong unit growth occurred despite the industry being down approximately 4 points year-over-year [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/30/carvana-is-down-30-in-2026-while-carmax-is-up-50-should-investors-sell-one-and-buy-the-other/)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1096307)[[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/carvana-slashes-customer-service-costs-through-ai-agent/)[[^]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2964532/cvna-q2-earnings-call-highlights-machine-building-focus?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|earnings_call_takeaways-2964532).

**Despite the robust Q2 unit performance, Carvana's stock declined due to its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.7B to $3.0B, which missed analyst consensus expectations of $2.99B at the midpoint [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/carvana-stock-tumbles-as-full-year-guidance-disappoints-despite-record-quarter-125421795.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CVNA/8-k-carvana-co-reports-material-event-071aff071b29.html)[[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/stockstory-2026-7-29-carvanas-nysecvna-q2-cy2026-sales-beat-estimates-but-stock-drops-157).** Bullish **market** sentiment for Carvana centers on long-term infrastructure and AI logistics advantages, with some analysts maintaining a "Buy" rating [[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://tradevae.com/news/stock-markets/carvana-shares-drop-as-full-year-ebitda-guidance-falls-short-of-street-expectations/)[[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/stockstory-2026-7-29-carvanas-nysecvna-q2-cy2026-sales-beat-estimates-but-stock-drops-157). Conversely, bearish sentiment highlights near-term margin pressure, inventory rebalancing costs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty within the automotive sector [[^]](https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/30/needham-says-carvana-stock-could-double-as-management-lowers-guidance/)[[^]](https://tradevae.com/news/stock-markets/carvana-shares-drop-as-full-year-ebitda-guidance-falls-short-of-street-expectations/)[[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/stockstory-2026-7-29-carvanas-nysecvna-q2-cy2026-sales-beat-estimates-but-stock-drops-157). The absence of an exact Q3 unit-sales target also contributes to **market** uncertainty [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928218-carvana-profit-compression-makes-this-stock-tougher-to-bank-on-downgrade).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** February 25, 2027
- **Closes:** February 25, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Carvana reported an all-time quarterly record of 197,325 retail vehicle units sold in Q2 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- The company announced an expectation for a sequential increase in retail units sold for Q3 2026, though no specific numerical forecast was provided for Q3 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- This strong unit growth occurred despite the industry being down approximately 4 points year-over-year [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Despite the robust Q2 unit performance, Carvana's stock declined due to its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of **$2.7B** to **$3.0B**, which missed analyst consensus expectations of **$2.99B** at the midpoint [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 5 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P210000: NO (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P205000: NO (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P200000: NO (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P195000: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P190000: YES (Jul 29, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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