# Domino's US same store sales growth in Q2 us stores same store sales growth in Q2 2026 Updated: July 11, 2026 Category: Financials Tags: Companies KPIs HTML: /markets/financials/companies/domino-s-us-same-store-sales-growth-in-q2/ ## Short Answer **The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Domino's US same store sales growth in Q2 2026 to be Above 1% (46.0% model vs 68.0% market), reflecting analyst consensus, including UBS, anticipating weaker Q2 2026 U.S.** same-store sales. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Since last update (~24h): The model's conviction for "Above 2.5%" flipped, increasing 2.6pp as the market declined 1.0pp.** - **Model**-led "Above **1.5%**" **probability** fell 5.3pp, widening its bearish edge as the **market** declined 2.0pp. - The **model** boosted "Above **3%**" by 2.1pp and "Above **3.5%**" by 1.6pp, compressing their respective edges. - The overall **market** edge compressed by 0.3pp, while the **confidence** score declined by 1.0pp. **- - The market points to U.S.** same-store sales growth above **1%**. - Analysts, notably UBS, anticipate weaker Q2 sales, projecting a potential **1.5%** decline. - Management lowering full-year guidance supports expectations of Q2 sales weakness. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** The Octagon **model** projects weaker Q2 2026 sales, with its **46%** estimate 22 points below the 68c **market** price. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1% | 68.0% | 46.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | | Above 2.5% | 28.0% | 29.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | | Above 1.5% | 59.0% | 37.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1% | 68.0% | 46.0% | | Above 2.5% | 28.0% | 29.5% | | Above 1.5% | 59.0% | 37.0% | | Above 2% | 41.0% | 30.0% | | Above 5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | | Above 3% | 49.0% | 29.0% | | Above 3.5% | 49.0% | 28.5% | | Above 4% | 49.0% | 28.0% | | Above 4.5% | 49.0% | 27.5% | - Expiration: November 17, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market saw a dramatic upward repricing over two days. The contract began trading at a 1.0% probability on July 9 before spiking 50 percentage points to 51.0% on the same day. The provided context offers no specific catalyst for this initial move. The price advanced again on July 10, rising 17 percentage points to 68.0%, just below its high of 69.0%. The market has since stabilized at this new, higher level. The price surge appears directly linked to a negative analyst outlook published around July 9. A UBS report indicated an expected 1.5% decline in Domino's Q2 U.S. same-store sales. This news event seems to be the primary driver behind the repricing, shifting market sentiment decisively toward a weak sales report. Total volume traded stands at 453 contracts, though recent days have seen no volume, suggesting the market has priced in the news and now awaits the official earnings release. The price action established a new support level near 51.0% and is currently consolidating below the 69.0% resistance, implying a high conviction among participants of a negative outcome for Q2 sales growth. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Above 2.5% #### đŸ“‰ July 10, 2026: 21.0pp drop Price decreased from 49.0% to 28.0% **What happened:** The primary driver of the 21.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 2.5%" outcome for Domino's Q2 US same-store sales growth was a negative analyst outlook published around July 9, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bez-kabli.pl/dominos-pizza-stock-gets-another-warning-before-its-july-20-earnings-test/). Analysts, including UBS, indicated expectations for a potential 1.5% decline in Q2 2026 U.S. same-store sales, which is significantly below both the 0.3% consensus and the market's 2.5% threshold [[^]](https://www.bez-kabli.pl/dominos-pizza-stock-gets-another-warning-before-its-july-20-earnings-test/). This traditional news directly preceded the July 10, 2026 price movement, suggesting it led the market's downward revision of expectations. Social media activity was irrelevant as no pertinent posts were found. ### Outcome: Above 1% #### đŸ“ˆ July 09, 2026: 50.0pp spike Price increased from 1.0% to 51.0% **What happened:** The provided web research does not support the occurrence of a 50.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Domino's US same store sales growth in Q2" on July 9, 2026. Domino's stock price was relatively stable on that date, experiencing a 3.2% premarket move but no significant spike [[^]](https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dpz-stock)[[^]](https://993454.com/article/premarket-movers-qualcomm-domino-s-adobe-more-what-you-need-to-know)[[^]](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DPZ/dominos-pizza-inc/stock-price-history). No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements were identified on July 9, 2026, that would explain such a dramatic movement [[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html)[5-10]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as the reported price movement itself is not substantiated by the given information [11-16]. ## Contract Snapshot Contract details not available. ## Market Discussion Domino's Pizza is scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 financial results on July 20, 2026 [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/)[[^]](https://www.franchising.com/news/20260619_dominos_announces_q2_2026_earnings_webcast.html)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DPZ/domino-s-announces-q2-2026-earnings-xry7zv80w526.html). Analysts, including UBS, expect the company to report weaker U.S. same-store sales growth for the quarter, after posting 0.9% growth in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html)[[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dominos-pizza-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-302753434.html)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/f0f3f7b8-bdca-45f6-97b8-43c42482befe). ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1% | 67% | 68% | 68% | $453.53 | $436.02 | | Above 1.5% | 58% | 59% | 59% | $267.17 | $251.21 | | Above 2% | 43% | 44% | 41% | $254.68 | $175.68 | | Above 2.5% | 27% | 28% | 28% | $387.01 | $352.01 | | Above 3% | 15% | 16% | 49% | $0.01 | $0.01 | | Above 3.5% | 14% | 15% | 49% | $0.01 | $0.01 | | Above 4% | 6% | 7% | 49% | $0.01 | $0.01 | | Above 4.5% | 6% | 7% | 49% | $0.01 | $0.01 | | Above 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | $187.01 | $125.01 | ## How did Domino's U.S. same-store sales growth in Q1 2026 compare to that of key competitors like Pizza Hut and Papa John's? Domino's U.S. same-store sales growth Q1 2026 | 0.9% [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/f0f3f7b8-bdca-45f6-97b8-43c42482befe)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/) | Pizza Hut U.S. same-store sales growth Q1 2026 | -4% [[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/yum/0001041061-26-000108.htm)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/yum-brands-q1-2026-earnings-111946245.html) | Papa John's North America same-store sales growth Q1 2026 | -6.4% [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/901491/000162828026031666/pzza-32926xpressrelease.htm)[[^]](https://ir.papajohns.com/_assets/_aceec0c55f7bc7d2fd3a395a7537db89/papajohns/db/949/9843/earnings_release/2026+PZZA+Q1+Earnings+Release_FINAL.pdf) | **Domino's achieved positive U.S** Domino's achieved positive U.S. same-store sales growth in Q1 2026. The company reported an increase of **0.9%** in its U.S. same-store sales during this period [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/f0f3f7b8-bdca-45f6-97b8-43c42482befe)[[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/). This performance positioned Domino's favorably against its main competitors in the pizza sector. Conversely, key competitors experienced declines in their same-store sales. Pizza Hut's U.S. same-store sales growth was negative, falling by **4%** in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/yum/0001041061-26-000108.htm)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/yum-brands-q1-2026-earnings-111946245.html). Similarly, Papa John's saw its North America same-store sales growth decrease by **6.4%** during the same quarter [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/901491/000162828026031666/pzza-32926xpressrelease.htm)[[^]](https://ir.papajohns.com/_assets/_aceec0c55f7bc7d2fd3a395a7537db89/papajohns/db/949/9843/earnings_release/2026+PZZA+Q1+Earnings+Release_FINAL.pdf). These figures underscore Domino's stronger **market** performance within the U.S. for Q1 2026 compared to its rivals. ## Which strategic initiatives by Domino's during Q2 2026, such as its DoorDash partnership or new loyalty program features, are most likely to have influenced sales? 2026 Strategic Growth | Hungry for MORE strategy [[^]](https://www.qsrmagazine.com/story/dominos-eyes-20-billion-in-u-s-sales-as-it-widens-gap-with-pizza-competitors/)[[^]](https://www.pmq.com/dominos-ceo-we-have-something-more-important-than-pricing-power/)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/dpz/0001286681-26-000025.htm) | Q2 2026 U.S. Same-Store Sales Release | Not yet released (as of July 11, 2026) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpz/dominos-kpi/kxdpz-26julsssg)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html) | Q2 2026 U.S. Same-Store Sales Expectation | Weaker sales expected [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpz/dominos-kpi/kxdpz-26julsssg)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html) | **Domino's 2026 strategic growth is underpinned by its "Hungry for MORE" strategy** Domino's 2026 strategic growth is underpinned by its "Hungry for MORE" strategy. This overarching strategy prioritizes menu innovation, enhancements to its digital platforms, and the expansion of third-party delivery partnerships [[^]](https://www.qsrmagazine.com/story/dominos-eyes-20-billion-in-u-s-sales-as-it-widens-gap-with-pizza-competitors/)[[^]](https://www.pmq.com/dominos-ceo-we-have-something-more-important-than-pricing-power/)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/dpz/0001286681-26-000025.htm). Key initiatives under this strategy include the introduction of Parmesan Stuffed Crust and various updates to Domino's digital presence, such as its website and mobile application [[^]](https://www.qsrmagazine.com/story/dominos-eyes-20-billion-in-u-s-sales-as-it-widens-gap-with-pizza-competitors/)[[^]](https://www.pmq.com/dominos-ceo-we-have-something-more-important-than-pricing-power/)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/dpz/0001286681-26-000025.htm). Q2 2026 U.S. same-store sales results for Domino's remain unreleased. As of July 11, 2026, the company has not yet published its U.S. same-store sales growth results for the second quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpz/dominos-kpi/kxdpz-26julsssg)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html). Analysts are predicting weaker sales for this period [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpz/dominos-kpi/kxdpz-26julsssg)[[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html). Furthermore, the available research does not contain specific details regarding a DoorDash partnership or any new loyalty program features implemented by Domino's during Q2 2026 that could have influenced sales [[^]](https://www.qsrmagazine.com/story/dominos-eyes-20-billion-in-u-s-sales-as-it-widens-gap-with-pizza-competitors/)[[^]](https://www.pmq.com/dominos-ceo-we-have-something-more-important-than-pricing-power/)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/dpz/0001286681-26-000025.htm)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDoSu0BCSiU)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCbwX2O-kzo). ## What has been Domino's U.S. same-store sales growth trend over the four quarters preceding Q2 2026? Q1 2026 U.S. Same-Store Sales Growth | 0.9% [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/dominos-q1-2026-same-store-sales-growth-slows/818549/) | Q3 2025 U.S. Same-Store Sales Growth | 5.2% [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-second-quarter-2025-financial-results)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/04bdef99-a234-4644-b2b9-6c9e59ed3363)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062313/dpz-ex99_1.htm)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results) | Q2 2025 U.S. Same-Store Sales Growth | 3.4% [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-second-quarter-2025-financial-results)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/04bdef99-a234-4644-b2b9-6c9e59ed3363)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062313/dpz-ex99_1.htm)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results) | **Domino's U.S** Domino's U.S. same-store sales growth varied, slowing significantly by Q1 2026. Domino's U.S. same-store sales growth exhibited a varied trend across the four quarters leading up to Q2 2026, culminating in a significant deceleration in the most recent period. The company reported growth rates of **3.4%** in Q2 2025 [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-second-quarter-2025-financial-results), **5.2%** in Q3 2025 [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/04bdef99-a234-4644-b2b9-6c9e59ed3363), and **3.7%** in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286681/000119312526062313/dpz-ex99_1.htm). This trend shifted notably in Q1 2026, when growth slowed to **0.9%** [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results). Economic pressures, competition, and weather slowed Q1 2026 growth. The substantial slowdown in U.S. same-store sales growth to **0.9%** in Q1 2026 was attributed to a confluence of factors [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominos-pizzar-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/dominos-q1-2026-same-store-sales-growth-slows/818549/). These included ongoing economic pressures, inflationary impacts, unfavorable weather conditions across various regions, and heightened **market** competition [[^]](https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/dominos-q1-2026-same-store-sales-growth-slows/818549/). ## How have key macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index for food away from home, evolved during Q2 2026? CPI for food away from home (May 2026) | 394.73 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUsr0000SEFV)[[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_food_away_from_home) | Increase in food away from home CPI (April-May 2026) | 0.3 percent [[^]](http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings)[[^]](https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings) | Headline CPI | Above 3% [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUrUrnmM5EI) | **The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for "food away from home" showed an upward trend during Q2 2026** The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for "food away from home" showed an upward trend during Q2 2026. In April 2026, the index was recorded at 393.55, increasing to 394.73 in May 2026 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUsr0000SEFV)[[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_food_away_from_home). This represented a 0.3 percent rise from April to May of that quarter [[^]](http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings)[[^]](https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings). Broader food prices impacted the overall economic landscape during Q2 2026. Pork has been identified as a persistent factor influencing the overall CPI [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S9puaYnHa4). Generally, headline CPI numbers exceeded **3%** during this period [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUrUrnmM5EI). Reflecting the challenging environment, Domino's Pizza had not released its Q2 2026 financial results as of July 11, 2026; however, **market** analysts, including UBS, projected expectations of weaker U.S. same-store sales for the quarter [[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html). ## What specific commentary on full-year 2026 guidance will analysts be watching for during the Domino's July 20 earnings call? Q1 2026 US Same-Store Sales Growth | 0.9% [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://news.alphastreet.com/dominos-pizza-inc-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DPZ/earnings-call?t=US_DPZ_2026-04-27) | Revised 2026 US Comps Guidance | low single digits [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://news.alphastreet.com/dominos-pizza-inc-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DPZ/earnings-call?t=US_DPZ_2026-04-27) | Previous 2026 US Comps Guidance | approximately 3% [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://news.alphastreet.com/dominos-pizza-inc-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DPZ/earnings-call?t=US_DPZ_2026-04-27) | **Analysts are keenly awaiting commentary on Domino's full-year 2026 US same-store sales guidance** Analysts are keenly awaiting commentary on Domino's full-year 2026 US same-store sales guidance. During the July 20, 2026 earnings call, a primary focus will be on the company's US same-store sales performance and any planned recovery initiatives [[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1095148/domino-s-expected-to-report-weaker-us-sales-in-second-quarter-as-investors-look-for-recovery-plans-ubs-says-1095148.html)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dominosr-announces-q2-2026-earnings-webcast). Following a Q1 2026 US same-store sales growth of **0.9%**, management adjusted its full-year 2026 guidance for US comparable sales to 'low single digits', a reduction from the prior implied 'positive low single digits' of approximately **3%** [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://news.alphastreet.com/dominos-pizza-inc-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DPZ/earnings-call?t=US_DPZ_2026-04-27). A key point of interest for analysts will be whether management reaffirms this 'positive' low single-digit guidance or revises it further based on Q2 performance [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/27/dominos-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://news.alphastreet.com/dominos-pizza-inc-dpz-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DPZ/earnings-call?t=US_DPZ_2026-04-27). Analysts question Domino's ability to achieve its 2026 growth algorithm targets. A central concern is the company's capacity to maintain its full-year 2026 growth algorithm, which includes low single-digit growth for U.S. and international same-store sales, 175+ net U.S. store openings, about 800 net international openings, mid-single-digit global retail sales growth, and mid- to high single-digit operating income growth (excluding foreign currency and refranchising gains) [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=6)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=1)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=4)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=5). Analysts intend to investigate whether Domino’s can still achieve its **3%** U.S. same-store sales target for 2026 despite the adjusted guidance, and what specific changes to its second-half marketing, value strategy, and pizza innovation are necessary to support this objective [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=6)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=1)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=4)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=5). Management's assumptions on consumer behavior and competitive landscape face scrutiny. Additional areas of analyst scrutiny include management’s assumptions regarding continued consumer pressure and its impact on ticket versus order count, the level of competitive intensity, and whether the international outlook remains constrained by Domino’s Pizza Enterprises or if this headwind is easing [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=6)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=1)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=4)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=5). Analysts will also seek clarity on mix and channel trends, such as carryout versus delivery, and the effectiveness of advertising, including the significance of non-pizza items in the overall outlook [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=6)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=1)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=4)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=5). The primary question for the July 20 call extends beyond just the numeric guidance, focusing on how management plans to justify the path to full-year 2026 growth after a weak start, confirming the revised outlook's achievability, the operational levers supporting it, and whether current pressures are temporary or structural [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=6)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=3)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=1)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=4)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/DPZ/DPZ_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260711%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260711T080607Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=c77c27d4ebe8891ed9182b02378a79cab023a24d7a0c610c9028f27604f55c47#page=5). ## What Could Change the Odds **Domino's Pizza reported U.S.** same-store sales growth of **0.9%** for the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dominos-pizza-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-302753434.html)[[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/static-files/f0f3f7b8-bdca-45f6-97b8-43c42482befe)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260427de43424/dominos-pizza-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results). Management walked away from its prior **3%** U.S. same-store sales growth target for 2026 following these Q1 results [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/dominos-stock-down-cash-machine-still-winning/). **The company has scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings webcast for July 20, 2026 [[^]](https://ir.dominos.com/).** A surprise CEO transition, with COO Joe Jordan replacing Russell Weiner, has added uncertainty to the long-term growth outlook [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/dominos-stock-down-cash-machine-still-winning/). **Market sentiment is mixed; bulls point to strong franchisee economics and market share gains [[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/dominos-pizza-has-fallen-26-from-its-highs-heres-where-the-stock-could-go-in-2026)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/dominos-stock-down-cash-machine-still-winning/)[[^]](https://nobulleconomics.com/dominos-2026/).** Bears emphasize competitive pressure, aggressive discounting, and potential slowing net store growth [[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/dominos-pizza-has-fallen-26-from-its-highs-heres-where-the-stock-could-go-in-2026)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/dominos-stock-down-cash-machine-still-winning/)[[^]](https://nobulleconomics.com/dominos-2026/). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 17, 2026 - **Closes:** November 17, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Domino's Pizza reported U.S. - Same-store sales growth of **0.9%** for the first quarter of 2026 [^] [^] [^] . - Management walked away from its prior **3%** U.S. - Same-store sales growth target for 2026 following these Q1 results [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [Apple headcount in 2026](/markets/financials/kpis/apple-headcount-in-2026/) - [When will Tim Cook leave Apple?](/markets/financials/ceos/when-will-tim-cook-leave-apple/) - [Airbnb bookings in Q2](/markets/financials/kpis/airbnb-bookings-in-q2/) - [Who will acquire Pinterest this year?](/markets/financials/m-a/who-will-acquire-pinterest-this-year/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/financials/companies/domino-s-us-same-store-sales-growth-in-q2 If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.