# Etsy Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3

etsy marketplace gms in Q3 2026

Updated: August 19, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies, KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/etsy-gross-merchandise-sales-in-q3/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Etsy's Q3 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales will be Above $2.5 billion, with only minor residual uncertainty.** Etsy's official guidance, which ranges from **$2.53** billion to **$2.58** billion, provides a strong positive anchor for this expectation.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - Etsy's Q3 GMS is expected above $2.5 billion, per official company guidance.** - GMS above **$2.54** billion is likely, though some guidance is below this threshold.
- GMS strictly above **$2.58** billion faces challenges, exceeding the company's guidance.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

**Market** at 81c prices above the **77.9%** **model** **probability**, anchored by Etsy's Q3 GMS guidance exceeding consensus.

This market, pricing the probability of Etsy's Q3 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) exceeding $2.5 billion, shows a stark upward trend. The contract began trading at a 1.0% probability before a nearly vertical spike of 73 percentage points to 74.0% on August 18, 2026. The price has since consolidated higher, reaching a current probability of 81.0%. The initial low price suggests the market was agnostic or pricing in significant downside risk before key information became available.

The price surge is a direct reaction to Etsy's official Q3 2026 guidance. The company forecasted marketplace GMS in a range of $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion. Since the entire forecast range is above the contract's $2.5 billion resolution threshold, the market repriced to reflect this high likelihood. Total volume is 760 contracts, but the sample data shows no volume during the sharpest price movements on August 18 and 19. This suggests the initial repricing may have occurred on thin volume or via a market maker adjustment rather than broad participation.

The chart indicates a clear shift in market sentiment from uncertainty to high conviction. The 1.0% opening price served as a brief, pre-information baseline. The current 81.0% level acts as the new floor, reflecting the market's assimilation of the company's guidance. The price action suggests traders see a very high probability that Etsy will, at a minimum, meet the low end of its own GMS forecast. The market will resolve with the official results scheduled for release on October 28, 2026.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.54 billion | 83.0% | 77.9% | Market higher by 5.1pp |
| Above $2.5 billion | 97.0% | 94.5% | Market higher by 2.5pp |
| Above $2.66 billion | 3.0% | 2.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.54 billion | 83.0% | 77.9% |
| Above $2.5 billion | 97.0% | 94.5% |
| Above $2.66 billion | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Above $2.58 billion | 46.0% | 49.4% |
| Above $2.62 billion | 25.0% | 4.0% |

- Expiration: February 25, 2027

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 August 18, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

**Outcome:** Above $2.5 billion

**What happened:** The prediction market for Etsy Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3 2026, specifically the "Above $2.5 billion" outcome, reportedly experienced a 90.0 percentage point spike on August 18, 2026. However, as of August 18, 2026, web research indicates there were no credible reports of such a significant price movement related to Etsy's Gross Merchandise Sales or stock price [[1]](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-etsy/etsy/news/etsy-etsy-back-in-focus-following-mixed-earnings-and-a-full)[[2]](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/consumer/etsy-nyse-etsy-can-marketplace-momentum-strengthen)[[3]](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/08/18/the-goldman-sachs-group-upgrades-etsy-nyseetsy-to-hold.html)[[4]](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/08/18/rice-hall-james-associates-llc-invests-12-46-million-in-etsy-inc-etsy.html)[[5]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-ETSY/). Etsy's official guidance already projected Q3 2026 GMS between $2.53 billion and $2.58 billion, making the "Above $2.5 billion" outcome highly probable [[6]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[7]](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/etsy-revenue-gms/)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm). Therefore, without evidence that the described movement actually occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including any social media activity.

Sources:

1. [Etsy (ETSY) Back In Focus Following Mixed Earnings And A Full Valuation View - Simply Wall St News](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-etsy/etsy/news/etsy-etsy-back-in-focus-following-mixed-earnings-and-a-full)
2. [Etsy (NYSE: ETSY): Can Marketplace Momentum Strengthen?](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/consumer/etsy-nyse-etsy-can-marketplace-momentum-strengthen)
3. [The Goldman Sachs Group Upgrades Etsy (NYSE:ETSY) to “Hold” - Daily Political](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/08/18/the-goldman-sachs-group-upgrades-etsy-nyseetsy-to-hold.html)
4. [Rice Hall James & Associates LLC Invests $12.46 Million in Etsy Inc $ETSY - Daily Political](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/08/18/rice-hall-james-associates-llc-invests-12-46-million-in-etsy-inc-etsy.html)
5. [ETSY Stock Price and Chart — NYSE:ETSY — TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-ETSY/)
6. [Etsy anticipates Q3 2026 GMS of $2.53B-$2.58B while...](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)
7. [Etsy app helps to power revenue, GMS growth in Q2 2026](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/etsy-revenue-gms/)
8. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution for a contract is triggered if Etsy's Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3 are above the specific dollar amount stated in that contract; otherwise, a "No" resolution occurs. The market begins on October 28, 7:00 am EDT, with the maximum payout occurring by February 25, 2027. Resolution is based directly on the reported Q3 sales figure relative to the contract's threshold.

## Market Discussion

Etsy announced Q3 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) guidance in the range of $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion, projecting a 4% to 6% year-over-year growth for its marketplace [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[2]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ETSY/8-k-etsy-inc-reports-material-event-8ec5d5b60ac1.html)[[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm). Despite this guidance, social media and market commentary indicate mixed sentiment, driven by concerns over stagnant active buyer growth even as prediction markets show approximately 78% sentiment for GMS exceeding $2.54 billion [[4]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[5]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxetsy/etsy-quarter-kpi/kxetsy-26octgms)[[6]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Etsy+Slides+as+Restructuring+Overshadows+Mixed+Q2+Marketplace+Trends).

Sources:

1. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
2. [Etsy posts stronger Q2, adds $2B buyback plan](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ETSY/8-k-etsy-inc-reports-material-event-8ec5d5b60ac1.html)
3. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
4. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
5. [Etsy Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxetsy/etsy-quarter-kpi/kxetsy-26octgms)
6. [Etsy Slides as Restructuring Overshadows Mixed Q2 Marketplace Trends | Quiver Quantitative](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Etsy+Slides+as+Restructuring+Overshadows+Mixed+Q2+Marketplace+Trends)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.5 billion | 92% | 99% | 97% | 620 contracts | 410 contracts |
| Above $2.54 billion | 73% | 83% | 83% | 956 contracts | 600 contracts |
| Above $2.58 billion | 44% | 53% | 46% | 406 contracts | 401 contracts |
| Above $2.62 billion | 15% | 25% | 25% | 8 contracts | 8 contracts |
| Above $2.66 billion | 2% | 11% | 3% | 600 contracts | 400 contracts |

## What are the consensus analyst estimates for Etsy's Q3 2026 GMS, and how have they trended since the Q2 2026 earnings report?

Analyst Consensus (Pre-Q2) | ~$2.51 billion (Zacks) [[1]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[2]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[3]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[4]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html)[[5]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974895/is-etsy-etsy-stock-outpacing-its-retail-wholesale-peers-this-year?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_1-2974895)[[6]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974097/these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-could-beat-earnings-why-they-should-be-on-your-radar?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2974097) |
Official Guidance (Q3 2026 GMS) | $2.53 billion - $2.58 billion (Etsy Q2 2026 earnings) [[7]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[11]](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-inc-etsy-q2-2026-231603652.html) |
Post-Q2 Market Expectation | Within $2.53 billion - $2.58 billion range (company guidance) [[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[12]](https://www.usfijitimes.org/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript)[[11]](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-inc-etsy-q2-2026-231603652.html) |

**Initial analyst estimates were superseded by Etsy's official guidance**

Initial analyst estimates were superseded by Etsy's official guidance.
Before Etsy's Q2 2026 earnings release, the consensus analyst estimate for Etsy's Q3 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) was approximately **$2.51** billion, derived from an average of eight analysts reported by Zacks [[1]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[2]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[3]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[4]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html)[[5]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974895/is-etsy-etsy-stock-outpacing-its-retail-wholesale-peers-this-year?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_1-2974895)[[6]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974097/these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-could-beat-earnings-why-they-should-be-on-your-radar?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2974097). However, following its Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, Etsy provided its own guidance for Q3 2026 GMS, setting expectations between **$2.53** billion and **$2.58** billion [[7]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[11]](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-inc-etsy-q2-2026-231603652.html).

Etsy's guidance currently anchors the **market**'s GMS expectations.
There is currently no widely cited public prediction **market** data specifically tracking the final Q3 2026 GMS dollar figure after the Q2 2026 earnings report. Consequently, Etsy's official guidance has effectively anchored the current consensus expectation within the **$2.53** billion to **$2.58** billion range [[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[12]](https://www.usfijitimes.org/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript)[[11]](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-inc-etsy-q2-2026-231603652.html). Due to the absence of multiple, dated consensus estimate updates, it is not possible to quantify how the consensus estimate may have shifted over time [[1]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[2]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[3]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[4]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html)[[5]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974895/is-etsy-etsy-stock-outpacing-its-retail-wholesale-peers-this-year?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_1-2974895)[[6]](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974097/these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-could-beat-earnings-why-they-should-be-on-your-radar?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2974097).

Sources:

1. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)
2. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)
3. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)
4. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html)
5. [www.zacks.com](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974895/is-etsy-etsy-stock-outpacing-its-retail-wholesale-peers-this-year?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_1-2974895)
6. [www.zacks.com](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2974097/these-2-retail-and-wholesale-stocks-could-beat-earnings-why-they-should-be-on-your-radar?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-fundamental_analysis|zacks_education_earnings_esp-2974097)
7. [Etsy anticipates Q3 2026 GMS of $2.53B-$2.58B while authorizing a new $2B share repurchase program (NYSE:ETSY)](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)
8. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
9. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
10. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
11. [Etsy Inc (ETSY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: GMS Growth Accelerates to 7....](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/etsy-inc-etsy-q2-2026-231603652.html)
12. [Usfijitimes | Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript](https://www.usfijitimes.org/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript)

## How might Etsy's Q3 2026 restructuring and workforce reduction impact seller activity and gross merchandise sales?

Workforce Reduction | Approximately 220 employees (12% of staff) [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/8_k/Form%2B8-K%2BQ2%2B2026%2B%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[2]](https://www.etsy.com/news/evolving-etsyas-structure-for-the-future)[[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/etsy-layoffs-q2-earnings.html) |
Restructuring Completion | End of Q3 2026 [[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[5]](https://www.renascence.io/news/16669/etsy-cuts-12-of-workforce-cx-and-seller-trust-at-stake)[[6]](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth) |
Associated Costs | $35 million [[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf) |

**Etsy announced a restructuring affecting 12% of its workforce**

Etsy announced a restructuring affecting **12%** of its workforce.
Etsy initiated a restructuring plan on August 5, 2026, which involves reducing approximately 220 employees, representing **12%** of its total workforce, primarily within its product and engineering teams [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/8_k/Form%2B8-K%2BQ2%2B2026%2B%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[2]](https://www.etsy.com/news/evolving-etsyas-structure-for-the-future)[[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/etsy-layoffs-q2-earnings.html). This strategic move aims to accelerate decision-making, improve coordination, and ultimately enhance platform velocity, search relevance, personalization, and the overall seller and buyer experience [[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/etsy-layoffs-q2-earnings.html)[[7]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[6]](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth).

Restructuring risks include operational capacity and seller trust issues.
While projected to conclude by the end of Q3 2026, the restructuring carries execution risks that could impact Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS). These risks encompass a potential decrease in operational capacity for critical functions such as dispute resolution, onboarding, and moderation [[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[5]](https://www.renascence.io/news/16669/etsy-cuts-12-of-workforce-cx-and-seller-trust-at-stake)[[6]](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth). **Market** analysts have also voiced concerns regarding seller sensitivity to organizational changes, which could affect platform trust and the pace of product development, thereby influencing GMS [[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/etsy-layoffs-q2-earnings.html)[[5]](https://www.renascence.io/news/16669/etsy-cuts-12-of-workforce-cx-and-seller-trust-at-stake)[[9]](https://www.ecomcrew.com/etsy-calls-itself-human-centered-its-sellers-have-a-more-complicated-story-to-tell/)[[6]](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth). The company anticipates incurring **$35** million in associated costs for this plan [[3]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf).

Management expects flatter teams to drive customer frequency and retention.
Conversely, Etsy's management intends to leverage the newly restructured, flatter teams to accelerate initiatives specifically designed to boost customer frequency and retention. These focused efforts could, in turn, positively influence seller activity across the platform [[6]](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth).

Sources:

1. [Form 8-K Q2 2026](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/8_k/Form%2B8-K%2BQ2%2B2026%2B%288.5.26%29.pdf)
2. [Evolving Etsy’s Structure for the Future](https://www.etsy.com/news/evolving-etsyas-structure-for-the-future)
3. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
4. [Etsy layoffs: Online marketplace cutting 12% of staff](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/etsy-layoffs-q2-earnings.html)
5. [Etsy Cuts 12% of Workforce: CX and Seller Trust at Stake — Renascence](https://www.renascence.io/news/16669/etsy-cuts-12-of-workforce-cx-and-seller-trust-at-stake)
6. [Etsy Cuts 12% of Workforce in Product Restructuring](https://www.marketmaze.me/p/etsy-workforce-restructuring-product-growth)
7. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
8. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
9. [Etsy Calls Itself "Human-Centered." Its Sellers Have a More Complicated Story to Tell.](https://www.ecomcrew.com/etsy-calls-itself-human-centered-its-sellers-have-a-more-complicated-story-to-tell/)

## How does Etsy's projected GMS growth for Q3 2026 compare to key e-commerce marketplace competitors like eBay and Amazon Handmade?

Etsy Q3 2026 GMS Range | $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion (4% to 6% YoY growth) [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[2]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ETSY/8-k-etsy-inc-reports-material-event-8ec5d5b60ac1.html) |
eBay Q3 2026 Consolidated GMV | $22.0 billion to $22.4 billion (10% to 12% YoY FX-neutral growth) [[4]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000174/exhibit991erebayq22026.htm)[[5]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/ebay-ebay-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |
Amazon Handmade Annual GMV | Over $3.5 billion (estimated) [[6]](https://onlinestorenews.com/etsy-vs-amazon-handmade-in-2026-which-marketplace-wins-for-craft-sellers/)[[7]](https://epinium.com/en/blog/amazon-seller-central-handmade/) |

**Etsy anticipates modest Gross Merchandise Sales growth for Q3 2026**

Etsy anticipates modest Gross Merchandise Sales growth for Q3 2026. The company's projected Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for Q3 2026 are expected to range from **$2.53** billion to **$2.58** billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of **4%** to **6%** [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[2]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ETSY/8-k-etsy-inc-reports-material-event-8ec5d5b60ac1.html). While a precise Q3 2026 GMS growth rate is not explicitly published, management has communicated expectations for positive year-over-year GMS for every quarter of 2026. This outlook includes a low-single-digit full-year 2026 marketplace GMS growth, suggesting a positive yet modest growth trajectory for Q3 [[8]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[9]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[10]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[11]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html).

eBay forecasts significantly higher GMV growth than Etsy for Q3 2026. For eBay, Q3 2026 consolidated Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is projected between **$22.0** billion and **$22.4** billion, reflecting a year-over-year FX-neutral growth of **10%** to **12%**, or **7%** to **9%** on an organic FX-neutral basis [[4]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000174/exhibit991erebayq22026.htm)[[5]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/ebay-ebay-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/). However, explicit company-issued Q3 2026 GMV guidance for eBay is not available in the provided sources [[8]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[9]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[10]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[11]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html). In contrast, Amazon Handmade, which functions as a strategic initiative within Amazon's larger third-party seller services, does not publicly release standalone financial metrics or specific Q3 2026 GMV forecasts [[6]](https://onlinestorenews.com/etsy-vs-amazon-handmade-in-2026-which-marketplace-wins-for-craft-sellers/)[[7]](https://epinium.com/en/blog/amazon-seller-central-handmade/)[[8]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)[[9]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)[[10]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)[[11]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html). Its estimated annual artisan-category GMV is over **$3.5** billion [[6]](https://onlinestorenews.com/etsy-vs-amazon-handmade-in-2026-which-marketplace-wins-for-craft-sellers/)[[7]](https://epinium.com/en/blog/amazon-seller-central-handmade/).

Sources:

1. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
2. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
3. [Etsy posts stronger Q2, adds $2B buyback plan](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ETSY/8-k-etsy-inc-reports-material-event-8ec5d5b60ac1.html)
4. [Document](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000174/exhibit991erebayq22026.htm)
5. [eBay (EBAY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/ebay-ebay-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
6. [Etsy vs. Amazon Handmade in 2026: Which Marketplace Wins for Craft Sellers? – Online Store News](https://onlinestorenews.com/etsy-vs-amazon-handmade-in-2026-which-marketplace-wins-for-craft-sellers/)
7. [Amazon Seller Central Handmade Guide | Epinium](https://epinium.com/en/blog/amazon-seller-central-handmade/)
8. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conference-302843991.html)
9. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-302844173.html)
10. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-completes-sale-of-depop-302838989.html)
11. [www.prnewswire.com](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/etsy-to-announce-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-august-5-2026-302828054.html)

## Is historical and projected data for Etsy's GMS available on a category-by-category basis for Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 Marketplace GMS Guidance | $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion (August 2026) [[1]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm) |
Category-level GMS Disclosure | Not provided in standard quarterly reporting [[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |
Historical Top 6 Categories GMS Share | Approximately 86-88% (in supplemental investor presentations) [[4]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_f7cdb279d1e645792fbe571896ba5dd8/etsy/db/938/9725/presentation/Q3-2025-Earnings-Presentation-IR-Website.pdf)[[5]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_105a3d9898baffd5a432f07cc9380da3/etsy/db/938/9482/presentation/For-website-Q4-2024-Earnings-Presentation.pdf)[[6]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_377e9690367f552b225d414fc1f13098/etsy/db/938/9480/presentation/Q2-2024-Earnings-Presentation_for-IR-website.pdf) |

**Etsy does not provide category-specific GMS data for Q3 2026**

Etsy does not provide category-specific GMS data for Q3 2026. The company no longer offers Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) data on a category-by-category basis in its standard quarterly financial reporting, a strategic shift made to emphasize occasion-led growth drivers over granular category performance [[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/). For Q3 2026, Etsy has issued guidance for its consolidated marketplace GMS, projecting it to fall between **$2.53** billion and **$2.58** billion as of August 2026 [[1]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm). However, this projection does not include any category-level breakdowns for the quarter [[1]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm).

Historical category GMS breakdowns were occasional, not a standard report. Etsy has, on occasion, shared top-level category GMS percentage approximations in supplemental investor presentations [[4]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_f7cdb279d1e645792fbe571896ba5dd8/etsy/db/938/9725/presentation/Q3-2025-Earnings-Presentation-IR-Website.pdf). These past disclosures indicated that the top six categories collectively represented approximately 86-**88%** of total GMS [[4]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_f7cdb279d1e645792fbe571896ba5dd8/etsy/db/938/9725/presentation/Q3-2025-Earnings-Presentation-IR-Website.pdf)[[5]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_105a3d9898baffd5a432f07cc9380da3/etsy/db/938/9482/presentation/For-website-Q4-2024-Earnings-Presentation.pdf)[[6]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_377e9690367f552b225d414fc1f13098/etsy/db/938/9480/presentation/Q2-2024-Earnings-Presentation_for-IR-website.pdf). It is important to note, however, that these detailed category breakdowns are not a consistent quarterly requirement for the company [[4]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_f7cdb279d1e645792fbe571896ba5dd8/etsy/db/938/9725/presentation/Q3-2025-Earnings-Presentation-IR-Website.pdf).

Sources:

1. [Etsy anticipates Q3 2026 GMS of $2.53B-$2.58B while...](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)
2. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report | Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
3. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
4. [Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation \[IR Website\]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_f7cdb279d1e645792fbe571896ba5dd8/etsy/db/938/9725/presentation/Q3-2025-Earnings-Presentation-IR-Website.pdf)
5. [\[For website\] Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_105a3d9898baffd5a432f07cc9380da3/etsy/db/938/9482/presentation/For-website-Q4-2024-Earnings-Presentation.pdf)
6. [Q2 2024 Earnings Presentation_for IR website](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_377e9690367f552b225d414fc1f13098/etsy/db/938/9480/presentation/Q2-2024-Earnings-Presentation_for-IR-website.pdf)

## Beyond company guidance, what potential growth catalysts or headwinds could impact Etsy's GMS before the October 28, 2026 earnings release?

Growth Catalyst - Product Enhancements | Ongoing improvements in search, discovery, machine learning, and mobile app momentum [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm) |
Restructuring Plan | 12% headcount reduction to streamline operations and invest in machine learning and new products [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm) |
Potential Headwind | Less favorable currency tailwinds and prior-year comparisons expected [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm) |

**Etsy's GMS may grow from ongoing product improvements**

Etsy's GMS may grow from ongoing product improvements.
Etsy's Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) may experience growth driven by continuous product enhancements across search, discovery, and machine learning, alongside the sustained momentum of its mobile application. The company is also concentrating efforts on increasing average order value by promoting higher-quality items on its platform [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm).

Strategic restructuring aims to streamline operations and boost future growth.
A strategic restructuring plan is currently underway, which includes a **12%** reduction in headcount. This initiative seeks to streamline operational efficiencies and reallocate investments towards crucial areas such as machine learning and the development of new product capabilities, ultimately aiming to accelerate future growth [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm).

Less favorable currency and tough comparisons pose GMS headwinds.
While Etsy's management anticipates broader macroeconomic conditions will remain largely stable, notable headwinds include expectations of less favorable currency tailwinds and more challenging prior-year comparisons as the year progresses [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm).

Sources:

1. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report | Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
2. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
3. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)

## What Could Change the Odds

**Etsy projects Q3 2026 marketplace Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) to range between $2.53 billion and $2.58 billion, representing 4% to 6% year-over-year growth [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/).** The company anticipates the substantial completion of a corporate restructuring plan by the end of Q3 2026. This plan involved a headcount reduction of approximately **12%**, resulting in 1,600 remaining employees, and is expected to incur **$35** million in charges [[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/). The divestiture of the Depop asset is expected to close by the end of Q3 2026 [[4]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings)[[5]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3648065/etsy-s-return-to-growth-narrative-meets-its-first-real-stress-test). Etsy's Q3 2026 earnings report is expected to be announced on October 28, 2026 [[6]](https://public.com/stocks/etsy/earnings).

**Bullish factors include sequential GMS growth acceleration, which reached 7.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026, improved mobile app engagement accounting for 47% of total GMS, and the successful application of AI/machine learning to discovery and ad take rates [[7]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[9]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/etsy-three-way-ai-bet-starting-pay-off/).** Bearish concerns center on competitive pressure, consumer spending sensitivity, and the potential impact of corporate restructuring activities [[7]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[8]](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)[[9]](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/etsy-three-way-ai-bet-starting-pay-off/).

Sources:

1. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
2. [Etsy anticipates Q3 2026 GMS of $2.53B-$2.58B while...](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)
3. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
4. [https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings)
5. [Etsy's Return to Growth Narrative Meets Its First Real...](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3648065/etsy-s-return-to-growth-narrative-meets-its-first-real-stress-test)
6. [Etsy (ETSY) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials](https://public.com/stocks/etsy/earnings)
7. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063726000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
8. [Q226 Shareholder Letter](https://investors.etsy.com/_assets/_bdba4403e017571e26019905ceaf99b2/etsy/db/938/10097/shareholder_letter/Q226+Shareholder+Letter+%288.5.26%29.pdf)
9. [PYMNTS | Etsy Uses AI to Fix Its Discovery Problem](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2026/etsy-three-way-ai-bet-starting-pay-off/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** February 25, 2027
- **Closes:** February 25, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Etsy projects Q3 2026 marketplace Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) to range between **$2.53** billion and **$2.58** billion, representing **4%** to **6%** year-over-year growth [[1]](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)[[2]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)[[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/).
- The company anticipates the substantial completion of a corporate restructuring plan by the end of Q3 2026.
- This plan involved a headcount reduction of approximately **12%**, resulting in 1,600 remaining employees, and is expected to incur **$35** million in charges [[3]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/).
- The divestiture of the Depop asset is expected to close by the end of Q3 2026 [[4]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings)[[5]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3648065/etsy-s-return-to-growth-narrative-meets-its-first-real-stress-test).

Sources:

1. [August 5, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report](https://investors.etsy.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001370637-26-000079/q226shareholderletter.htm)
2. [Etsy anticipates Q3 2026 GMS of $2.53B-$2.58B while...](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628783-etsy-anticipates-q3-2026-gms-of-2_53b-2_58b-while-authorizing-a-new-2b-share-repurchase)
3. [Etsy (ETSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/etsy-etsy-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
4. [https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/etsy/earnings)
5. [Etsy's Return to Growth Narrative Meets Its First Real...](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3648065/etsy-s-return-to-growth-narrative-meets-its-first-real-stress-test)

## Related Research Reports

- [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-sep-30-2026/)
- [How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-sep-30-2026/)
- [How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-jan-1-2027/)
- [American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3](/markets/financials/companies/american-airlines-passenger-load-factor-in-q3/)

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/companies/etsy-gross-merchandise-sales-in-q3
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.