# Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q2

identical sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q2 2026

Updated: August 10, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies, KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/kroger-sales-growth-excl-fuel-in-q2/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Kroger sales growth (excl.** fuel) in Q2 to be Above **0%** (**model** **23.9%** vs. **market** **0.0%**). This divergence stems from Kroger management projecting Q2 identical sales growth around **1.0%**, which is below **market** analyst consensus.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - Identical sales growth above 1% is likely, consistent with management's 1.0% guidance.** - Management cited pharmacy headwinds and consumer pressures for modest Q2 growth.
- Growth above **1.5%** is tempered by management's conservative Q2 outlook.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

**Model** sees **23.9%** **probability** vs 0c **market**, a +23.9pp gap, given Kroger's **1.0%** Q2 sales growth guidance.

The contract price for Kroger's Q2 identical sales growth has been completely static, holding at a 94.0% probability since trading began. The chart shows a flat, sideways line with no price movements. As a result, no support or resistance levels have been established; 94.0% is the only reference point. The lack of price discovery is the chart's defining feature.

The total traded volume for this contract is zero. This absence of trading activity indicates the market is inactive and the current price is not a reflection of a traded consensus. Instead, the 94.0% probability appears to be an initial quote anchored directly to corporate guidance. Kroger management reported 1.0% identical sales growth, excluding fuel, for Q1 and explicitly projected a Q2 result "roughly in line with Q1, around 1.0%." The high, albeit untested, probability in this market suggests this guidance is being priced as a high-certainty outcome.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 99.0% | 23.9% | Market higher by 75.1pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 23.9% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 99.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: —
- Expected Return: —
- R-Score: —
- Total Volume: 37,979 contracts
- 24h Volume: 0 contracts
- Open Interest: 22,807 contracts

- Expiration: September 11, 2026

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Kroger's identical sales growth (excluding fuel) in Q2 is above 1.5%. It resolves NO if this metric is 1.5% or less. Trading for this market ends on September 10 at 4:00 PM EDT.

## Market Discussion

Kroger management projected Q2 fiscal 2026 identical sales (excluding fuel) to be roughly in line with the Q1 2026 performance of 1.0% [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf). Conversely, market observers are watching for a potential identical sales print between 1.5% and 2.5%, with some analysts expecting a "quiet beat" near 1.8-2.0% [[2]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/). Investors are expressing concerns about "choppy" performance due to cautious consumer spending and pharmacy headwinds impacting earnings growth [[3]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kr-stock-wells-fargo-lowered-price-target-q1-earnings/cZKtuoGR7BV).

Sources:

1. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
2. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)
3. [Wells Fargo Flags 'Choppy' Road Ahead As Kroger Faces Flat Q2...](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kr-stock-wells-fargo-lowered-price-target-q1-earnings/cZKtuoGR7BV)

## How are Kroger's key growth initiatives, such as its Boost membership program and digital sales, projected to impact identical sales growth in Q2 2026?

Kroger Q2 2026 Identical Sales (ex-fuel) Expectation | approximately 1.0% [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[3]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/) |
Kroger FY 2026 Identical Sales (ex-fuel) Guidance | 1.0% to 2.0% [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[3]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/) |
Market Consensus Q2 2026 Identical Sales (ex-fuel) | +1.5% to +2.5% [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf) |

**Kroger projects modest identical sales growth for Q2 2026**

Kroger projects modest identical sales growth for Q2 2026. The company has explicitly stated its expectation for identical sales, excluding fuel, in Q2 2026 to be approximately **1.0%** [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf). This aligns with its broader full-year 2026 guidance, which projects identical sales growth in the range of **1.0%** to **2.0%** [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[3]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/). However, **market** consensus for Q2 2026 identical sales (excluding fuel) generally anticipates a higher growth rate, projected between +**1.5%** and +**2.5%** [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).

eCommerce and media drive growth, but pharmacy and spending pose challenges. Kroger's growth strategy is significantly propelled by initiatives in eCommerce and media, which are expected to continue their acceleration [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf). Despite these strategic growth drivers, the company faces notable offsetting pressures. These include headwinds within its pharmacy segment, primarily due to a shift from brand-name to generic prescriptions, as well as broader constraints on consumer spending [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).

Specific impact of Boost and digital sales remains undisclosed. The provided research did not offer specific projections regarding how the Boost membership program or individual digital sales are expected to impact identical sales growth in Q2 2026 [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).

Sources:

1. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
2. [The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Results](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
3. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)

## What evidence supports the market analyst consensus that Kroger's Q2 2026 identical sales growth will exceed the company's own guidance of ~1.0%?

Analyst Q2 2026 Sales Growth | 1.5%-2.5% (excluding fuel) [[1]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/) |
Kroger Official Q2 2026 Sales Guidance | Approximately 1.0% (excluding fuel) [[1]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/) |
Kroger Management Q2 Sales Outlook | Roughly 1.0% (in line with Q1) [[2]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[3]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kr-stock-wells-fargo-lowered-price-target-q1-earnings/cZKtuoGR7BV) |

**Market analysts anticipate Kroger's Q2 2026 identical sales growth will surpass company guidance**

**Market** analysts anticipate Kroger's Q2 2026 identical sales growth will surpass company guidance. Analysts project identical sales growth, excluding fuel, to be in the range of **1.5%**–**2.5%**, notably higher than Kroger's official guidance of approximately **1.0%** [[1]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/). This disparity highlights a more optimistic outlook among analysts compared to the company itself.

Bullish analyst sentiment stems from high-margin strategic initiatives. Analysts specifically believe that Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) and the Boost membership program are key drivers expected to counteract broader consumer spending pressures and pharmacy headwinds [[1]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)[[4]](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/). These programs are seen as critical to exceeding internal growth targets.

Kroger management maintains a cautious outlook for Q2 2026 sales. The company's leadership anticipates Q2 identical sales will remain roughly consistent with the **1.0%** growth reported in Q1 2026 [[2]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[3]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kr-stock-wells-fargo-lowered-price-target-q1-earnings/cZKtuoGR7BV). This conservative forecast from management contrasts directly with the more optimistic projections from **market** analysts.

Sources:

1. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)
2. [Earnings call transcript: Kroger tops revenue forecast in Q1 2026...](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)
3. [KR Stock In Focus: Wells Fargo Flags ‘Choppy’ Road Ahead As Kroger Faces Flat Q2 Earnings Growth](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kr-stock-wells-fargo-lowered-price-target-q1-earnings/cZKtuoGR7BV)
4. [KR Q1 Earnings: Kroger Posts $46.1B Revenue Beat, eCommerce Surges 19%, Guides In-Line | alphaarvion](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/)

## How did Kroger's identical sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q1 2026 compare to that of its primary competitors, Walmart and Albertsons?

Kroger Identical Sales Growth (excl. fuel) | 1.0% (Q1 2026) [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[2]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/FINAL-KR-Q1-FY26-Earnings-Presentation-tables.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm) |
Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth (excl. fuel) | 4.1% (Q1 FY27/Q1 2026) [[4]](https://stock.walmart.com/_assets/_073745ae8c54e2cd48e8e649fea81965/walmart/db/938/9995/earnings_release/Earnings+Release+(FY27+Q1).pdf)[[5]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htm)[[6]](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000095/0000104169-26-000095.pdf)[[7]](https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/05/21/walmart-releases-q1-fy27-earnings) |
Albertsons Identical Sales Growth (excl. fuel) | -0.8% (Q1 2026) [[8]](https://www.albertsonscompanies.com/newsroom/press-releases/news-details/2026/Albertsons-Companies-Inc--Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[9]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ACI/10-q-albertsons-companies-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-3c6f6712281c.html)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/07/23/albertsons-aci-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |

**Kroger's Q1 2026 identical sales growth lagged Walmart but surpassed Albertsons**

Kroger's Q1 2026 identical sales growth lagged Walmart but surpassed Albertsons. In the first quarter of 2026, Kroger reported an identical sales growth of **1.0%** (excluding fuel), a figure that was adjusted for certain labor disputes [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[2]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/FINAL-KR-Q1-FY26-Earnings-Presentation-tables.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm). This performance positioned Kroger behind Walmart U.S. during the same period, but ahead of Albertsons, which experienced a sales decline.

Walmart U.S. significantly outpaced Kroger, while Albertsons experienced a decline. Walmart U.S. recorded a substantially higher comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of **4.1%** in Q1 FY27, which corresponds to calendar Q1 2026 [[4]](https://stock.walmart.com/_assets/_073745ae8c54e2cd48e8e649fea81965/walmart/db/938/9995/earnings_release/Earnings+Release+(FY27+Q1).pdf)[[5]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htm)[[6]](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000095/0000104169-26-000095.pdf)[[7]](https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/05/21/walmart-releases-q1-fy27-earnings). Conversely, Albertsons reported a decline in identical sales (excluding fuel) of -**0.8%** in Q1 2026 [[8]](https://www.albertsonscompanies.com/newsroom/press-releases/news-details/2026/Albertsons-Companies-Inc--Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[9]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ACI/10-q-albertsons-companies-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-3c6f6712281c.html)[[10]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/07/23/albertsons-aci-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/).

Sources:

1. [Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Results](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
2. [\[PDF\] Kroger Q1 2026 Earnings Release](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/FINAL-KR-Q1-FY26-Earnings-Presentation-tables.pdf)
3. [Kroger Co._May 23, 2026 - SEC.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)
4. [Earnings Release (FY27 Q1)](https://stock.walmart.com/_assets/_073745ae8c54e2cd48e8e649fea81965/walmart/db/938/9995/earnings_release/Earnings+Release+(FY27+Q1).pdf)
5. [Walmart reports first quarter results - SEC.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htm)
6. [\[PDF\] 8-K - 05/21/2026 - Walmart Inc.](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000095/0000104169-26-000095.pdf)
7. [Walmart Releases Q1 FY27 Earnings](https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/05/21/walmart-releases-q1-fy27-earnings)
8. [Albertsons® Companies, Inc. Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2026...](https://www.albertsonscompanies.com/newsroom/press-releases/news-details/2026/Albertsons-Companies-Inc--Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results/default.aspx)
9. [Albertsons (NYSE: ACI) Q1 sales $24941.6 million, EPS $0.17](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ACI/10-q-albertsons-companies-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-3c6f6712281c.html)
10. [Albertsons (ACI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/07/23/albertsons-aci-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)

## Based on its Q1 2026 earnings transcript, what is Kroger management's rationale for guiding Q2 identical sales growth to be flat quarter-over-quarter?

Q2 Identical Sales Growth (ex-fuel) Guidance | Roughly in line with Q1 2026 [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4) |
Q1 2026 Identical Sales Growth (ex-fuel) | 1.0% [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4) |
Initiative Benefits Timing | Anticipated in the second half of the year [[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3) |

**Kroger expects Q2 identical sales to remain flat due to various pressures**

Kroger expects Q2 identical sales to remain flat due to various pressures. Kroger management has guided Q2 identical sales growth, excluding fuel, to be roughly in line with Q1 2026, which was **1.0%** [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4). This flat outlook is attributed to persistent consumer pressure, ongoing pharmacy-related headwinds, and various timing effects [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3). The full-year plan was structured to be more heavily weighted towards the second half, indicating that Q2 was not anticipated to bring significant performance changes [[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3).

Pharmacy shifts and consumer spending challenges impact Q2 sales. The rationale behind the Q2 outlook includes continued pharmacy headwinds, specifically an accelerating shift from brand to generic prescriptions, and sustained pressure on consumer spending despite some early resonance from affordability actions [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3). While the brand-to-generic mix shift and IRA-related headwinds reduce sales in Q2, they are largely neutral to profit [[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3). Furthermore, Q2 is affected by non-material one-time items and persistent fuel inflation [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3). Benefits from planned initiatives, such as savings, eCommerce profitability, and media growth, are expected to build more meaningfully in the second half of the year [[1]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[3]](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3).

Sources:

1. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
2. [The Kroger Co (KR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Alphastreet](https://news.alphastreet.com/the-kroger-co-kr-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
3. [Earnings call transcript: Kroger tops revenue forecast in Q1 2026...](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kroger-tops-revenue-forecast-in-q1-2026-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4750066)
4. [$KR Kroger Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB4xTzNlkk4)
5. [KR_Q12026, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=4)
6. [KR_Q12026, Page: 8](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=8)
7. [KR_Q12026, Page: 7](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=7)
8. [KR_Q12026, Page: 2](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=2)
9. [KR_Q12026, Page: 9](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=9)
10. [KR_Q12026, Page: 3](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/KR/KR_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260810%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260810T075112Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=26a10399a0d20fed424d1683d26e2875199e99b902c7a83d26cee6f8949d2cbd#page=3)

## What macroeconomic indicators for Q2 2026, such as the Consumer Price Index for Food at Home, could most significantly impact Kroger's sales?

CPI for Food at Home (12 months ending June 2026) | 2.7% rise [[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[2]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)[[3]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[4]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/cpi.PDF) |
Egg price trend (June 2026) | 4.3% monthly increase [[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[5]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)[[3]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[4]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/cpi.PDF) |
Kroger Q2 2026 identical sales (ex-fuel) expectation | Roughly in line with Q1's 1.0% growth [[5]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[6]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/) |

**Several macroeconomic and competitive factors could significantly impact Kroger's Q2 2026 sales**

Several macroeconomic and competitive factors could significantly impact Kroger's Q2 2026 sales. Key influences include ongoing pressure on consumer spending levels, tightness in the labor **market**, and potential shifts in government benefit programs, such as reduced SNAP benefits [[7]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)[[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htm). High gas prices are also identified as a significant driver affecting consumer spending [[7]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)[[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htm). Additionally, competitive pricing dynamics are noted as an important factor shaping the **market** landscape [[7]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[8]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)[[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htm).

Food at Home CPI shows a slight monthly rise, with notable egg price shifts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food at Home recorded a **0.2%** increase in June 2026 and a **2.7%** rise over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 [[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[2]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)[[3]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[4]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/cpi.PDF). A specific commodity trend to watch is egg prices, which experienced a 64 basis point deflationary pressure in Q1 2026 but saw a **4.3%** monthly increase in June 2026, indicating a potential shift in this particular headwind [[1]](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)[[5]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[2]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)[[3]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)[[4]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/cpi.PDF).

Kroger's Q2 identical sales growth outlook differs from **market** predictions. Kroger management anticipates Q2 2026 identical sales (excluding fuel) to align closely with Q1's **1.0%** growth [[5]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf). This contrasts with the **market** consensus, which predicts identical sales growth for Q2 2026 to be between **1.5%** and **2.5%** [[5]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)[[6]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/).

Sources:

1. [Kroger stock slide reveals bigger grocery problem - Threshold Macro Wire Threshold Macro Wire](https://thresholdmacrowire.com/kroger-stock-slide-reveals-bigger-grocery-problem/)
2. [Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M06 Results](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)
3. [Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M06 Results](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
4. [\[PDF\] Consumer Price Index - June 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/cpi.PDF)
5. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
6. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)
7. [The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Results](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
8. [Kroger Co._May 23, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)
9. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htm)

## What Could Change the Odds

**Kroger reported identical sales growth excluding fuel of 1.0% for Q1 2026 [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[2]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)[[3]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).** The company expects Q2 2026 identical sales growth excluding fuel to be roughly in line with the **1.0%** growth achieved in Q1 2026 [[3]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf). Kroger's Q2 2026 earnings release date is confirmed for September 4, 2026 [[4]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/kr/earnings)[[5]](https://www.rttnews.com/calendar/earnings/5215/kroger-co.aspx)[[6]](https://www.nextearningsdate.com/kroger.html).

**Key takeaway.** Bullish catalysts for Kroger include reaching over 1 million Boost membership subscribers, accelerating Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) revenue, and eCommerce profitability [[7]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)[[8]](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/).

**Key takeaway.** Conversely, bearish catalysts involve consumer spending pressure, persistent gross margin compression, and ongoing Albertsons merger-related legal uncertainty [[7]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)[[8]](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/).

Sources:

1. [The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Results](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
2. [Kroger Co._May 23, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)
3. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
4. [Kroger Company (KR) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/kr/earnings)
5. [Kroger Co. earnings dates,Kroger Co. earnings estimates – RTTNews.com](https://www.rttnews.com/calendar/earnings/5215/kroger-co.aspx)
6. [Kroger Next Earnings Date](https://www.nextearningsdate.com/kroger.html)
7. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)
8. [KR Q1 Earnings: Kroger Posts $46.1B Revenue Beat, eCommerce Surges 19%, Guides In-Line | alphaarvion](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 08, 2027
- **Closes:** January 08, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Kroger reported identical sales growth excluding fuel of **1.0%** for Q1 2026 [[1]](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[2]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)[[3]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).
- The company expects Q2 2026 identical sales growth excluding fuel to be roughly in line with the **1.0%** growth achieved in Q1 2026 [[3]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf).
- Kroger's Q2 2026 earnings release date is confirmed for September 4, 2026 [[4]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/kr/earnings)[[5]](https://www.rttnews.com/calendar/earnings/5215/kroger-co.aspx)[[6]](https://www.nextearningsdate.com/kroger.html).
- Bullish catalysts for Kroger include reaching over 1 million Boost membership subscribers, accelerating Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) revenue, and eCommerce profitability [[7]](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)[[8]](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/).

Sources:

1. [The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Results](https://ir.kroger.com/news/news-details/2026/Kroger-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
2. [Kroger Co._May 23, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926078236/kr-20260523x10q.htm)
3. [The Kroger Co.](https://s202.q4cdn.com/463742399/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-The-Kroger-Co-KR-US-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-18-June-2026-8-00-AM-ET.pdf)
4. [Kroger Company (KR) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/kr/earnings)
5. [Kroger Co. earnings dates,Kroger Co. earnings estimates – RTTNews.com](https://www.rttnews.com/calendar/earnings/5215/kroger-co.aspx)
6. [Kroger Next Earnings Date](https://www.nextearningsdate.com/kroger.html)
7. [Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhub](https://alphagridhub.com/kroger-kr-q2-fy26-preview-comps-boost-media/)
8. [KR Q1 Earnings: Kroger Posts $46.1B Revenue Beat, eCommerce Surges 19%, Guides In-Line | alphaarvion](https://www.alphaarvion.com/articles/us-earnings-kr-20260702/)

## Related Research Reports

- [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-sep-30-2026/)
- [How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-sep-30-2026/)
- [How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?](/markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-jan-1-2027/)
- [American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3](/markets/financials/companies/american-airlines-passenger-load-factor-in-q3/)

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/companies/kroger-sales-growth-excl-fuel-in-q2
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.