# Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3

event contracts total trading volume in Q3 2026

Updated: August 4, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies
KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/robinhood-event-contracts-trading-volume-in-q3/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (20.0% vs 0.0% market) for Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3 2026 to be Above $10 billion.** This is driven by record Q2 2026 volume, management's guidance for similar July volumes, and strong historical Q3 seasonality tied to the NFL season.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Outcomes above $10 billion appear likely due to record Q2 2026 volume.** - Strong Q3 seasonality from the NFL season supports volumes above **$12** billion.
- Management's similar July volume guidance suggests volumes above **$14** billion.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** The 0c **market** price contrasts with the **20%** **model** **probability**, given record Q2 volume and strong Q3 seasonality.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $10 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $12 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $14 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $10 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above $12 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above $14 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above $16 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above $18 billion | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above $20 billion | 0.0% | 15.0% |
| Above $22 billion | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Above $24 billion | 0.0% | 5.0% |

- Expiration: March 4, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward move on August 4, 2026. The probability jumped 54.0 percentage points, from a base of 1.0% to 55.0%, where it has since remained. This repricing occurred entirely on a single day and established both the floor and the current ceiling for the contract. Prior to this event, the market was dormant.

The catalyst for the price spike was the release of Robinhood's Q2 2026 financial results. The company reported a record 13.6 billion in event contracts trading volume for the second quarter, representing a more than ten-fold increase year-over-year. This data point appears to have caused a fundamental reassessment of the potential for Q3 volume, shifting the market's expectation from a low probability to a better-than-even chance of hitting the resolution target.

It is critical to note that the total traded volume in this market is zero contracts. The price movement reflects an adjustment in the quoted bid/ask spread, likely by the market maker, rather than conviction demonstrated by active trading. While the 55.0% price indicates positive sentiment following the strong Q2 report, the complete lack of volume suggests this sentiment has not been tested by significant capital flows. The market is effectively inactive.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 August 04, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 55.0%

**Outcome:** Above $10 billion

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 54.0 percentage point spike on August 4, 2026, was the release of Robinhood's Q2 2026 financial results and subsequent investor communications. The company announced record event contracts trading volume of 13.6 billion in Q2 2026, a more than 10-fold increase year-over-year [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://cryptopotato.com/robinhoods-q2-revenue-hits-record-1-31b-as-prediction-markets-fuel-10x-surge-in-event-contracts/). This news was further bolstered by executive statements indicating that average daily trading volumes for event contracts in July 2026, the first month of Q3, remained broadly consistent with the record Q2 levels [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/robinhood-shares-edge-lower-after-record-quarter-for-prediction-markets-business-121836314.html). This strong performance and positive outlook for Q3 directly supported the market predicting "Above $10 billion" in Q3 trading volume. Social media activity was not a primary driver.

## Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, the specific rules for a YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, and special settlement conditions are not detailed. The provided text only states the market topic: "Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026".

## Market Discussion

Robinhood's event contracts saw record trading volume of 13.6 billion contracts in Q2 2026, generating $156 million in revenue and surpassing cryptocurrency trading revenue [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e)[[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/finance/robinhood-event-contracts-hit-156m-beating-equities-and-crypto-in-q2-2026-280075). Although specific Q3 2026 trading volume metrics were not publicly reported as of August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46050298/ncaa-concerned-college-football-prediction-markets), factors like the June 2026 launch of Robinhood's Rothera exchange [[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://www.sandmark.com/news/analysis/robinhood-builds-rothera-own-event-contract-fees-it-once-paid-away)[[^]](https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/robinhood-prediction-markets-q2-earnings) and the continued expansion of event contracts into sports and pop culture [[^]](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/why-is-hood-stock-gaining-today/cZ0Zj4rReyz)[[^]](https://business.thepilotnews.com/thepilotnews/article/predictstreet-2026-1-22-the-gamification-of-truth-robinhood-hits-9-billion-prediction-contracts-as-event-trading-goes-mainstream)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46050298/ncaa-concerned-college-football-prediction-markets) may influence Q3 activity. However, regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges in certain states may pose headwinds [[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46050298/ncaa-concerned-college-football-prediction-markets).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $10 billion | 55% | 93% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $12 billion | 52% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $14 billion | 52% | 92% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $16 billion | 51% | 93% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $18 billion | 33% | 81% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $20 billion | 17% | 61% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $22 billion | 7% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $24 billion | 6% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What do Q2 2026 results and forward-looking guidance from Robinhood management imply for Q3 2026 event contract trading volume?

Record Q2 2026 event contract trading volume | 13.6 billion contracts [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-market-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-market-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/) |
Q2 2026 sequential increase from Q1 2026 | 55% [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-market-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-market-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/) |
July 2026 average daily event contract trading volumes | similar range to record Q2 2026 levels [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-market-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-market-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/) |

**Robinhood achieved record event contract trading volume in Q2 2026**

Robinhood achieved record event contract trading volume in Q2 2026. The company reported 13.6 billion event contracts traded, representing a substantial **55%** sequential increase from Q1 2026 [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). This growth was primarily driven by the expansion of its prediction **market** hub and the mid-quarter introduction of Rothera [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). Management indicated that these robust trading levels continued into Q3 2026, with average daily volumes for event contracts in July remaining comparable to the record performance seen in Q2 2026 [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/).

Robinhood plans to scale event contract trading through Rothera. Looking ahead, management has provided guidance for a continued focus on expanding its event contract trading business [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/robinhood-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call-117005270122541)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). The company anticipates migrating a majority of this trading activity to its joint venture exchange, Rothera, in the near-to-medium term [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/robinhood-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call-117005270122541)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). This strategic move aims to further grow the business, positioning Rothera as a central platform for future volume, despite current volumes already performing strongly [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/robinhood-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call-117005270122541)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/).

## What potential regulatory actions by the CFTC or major market events, like the start of the NFL season, could impact Robinhood's event contract volume in Q3 2026?

CFTC ANPRM Date | March 2026 [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-03-16/html/2026-05105.htm)[[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/media/14271/OGC_KentuckyComplaint062326/download)[[^]](https://www.willkie.com/-/media/files/publications/2026/03/prediction-markets-cftc-issues-new-advisory-and-advance-notice-of-proposed-rulemaking.pdf) |
Robinhood Q2 2026 Contract Volume | 13.6 billion contracts [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-market-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/) |
Robinhood Q2 2026 Transaction Revenue | $156 million [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-market-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/) |

**Potential regulatory actions and market events will significantly impact Robinhood's event contract volume**

Potential regulatory actions and **market** events will significantly impact Robinhood's event contract volume. The CFTC initiated active regulatory efforts concerning event contracts in 2026, including an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in March 2026 and a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in June 2026, aimed at amending regulations for prediction markets and public interest [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-03-16/html/2026-05105.htm)[[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/media/14271/OGC_KentuckyComplaint062326/download)[[^]](https://www.willkie.com/-/media/files/publications/2026/03/prediction-markets-cftc-issues-new-advisory-and-advance-notice-of-proposed-rulemaking.pdf). Concurrently, state-level actions, such as Kentucky's House Bill 757, which imposes an excise tax, could render event contract offerings economically unfeasible, presenting a critical regulatory risk [[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/media/14271/OGC_KentuckyComplaint062326/download).

The commencement of the NFL season historically drives substantial prediction **market** volume. Week 1 data from previous years demonstrates trading surges comparable to the intensity observed during U.S. presidential elections [[^]](https://www.tekedia.com/441-million-in-nfl-week-1-trading-volume-on-kalshi-matches-the-intensity-of-2024-u-s-election-week/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/flow-analysis-1-5b-nfl-prediction-**market**-surge-crypto-betting-implications-2602/)[[^]](https://www.bankless.com/read/the-nfl-crypto-betting-surge). This historical trend, combined with Robinhood's recent strong performance, establishes a positive backdrop for Q3 2026. Robinhood's event contract trading volume reached record levels in Q2 2026, with 13.6 billion contracts traded, generating **$156** million in transaction-based revenue [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/).

Robinhood increasingly directs its event contract activity towards "Rothera" to enhance scalability. This exchange, jointly owned with Susquehanna, is a strategic shift designed to improve the underlying infrastructure and profitability of Robinhood's prediction **market** offerings [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). This move aims to bolster the economics and efficiency of its platform.

## How do Robinhood's event contract offerings and user growth compare to competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket leading into Q3 2026?

Robinhood Q2 2026 Event Contracts Revenue | $156 million [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/finance/robinhood-event-contracts-hit-156m-beating-equities-and-crypto-in-q2-2026-280075)[[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e) |
Robinhood Q2 2026 Event Contracts Volume | 13.6 billion contracts [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/finance/robinhood-event-contracts-hit-156m-beating-equities-and-crypto-in-q2-2026-280075)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e) |
Rothera Q2 2026 Processed Contracts | 2.1 billion to 3.5 billion contracts [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/06/04/robinhood-prediction-markets-world-cup-rothera/) |

**Robinhood's event contracts experienced substantial growth, outperforming other segments**

Robinhood's event contracts experienced substantial growth, outperforming other segments. In Q2 2026, revenue from Robinhood's event contract offerings reached **$156** million, significantly surpassing its equities (**$129** million) and cryptocurrency (**$100** million) segments [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/finance/robinhood-event-contracts-hit-156m-beating-equities-and-crypto-in-q2-2026-280075)[[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e). This figure marked a tenfold year-over-year increase for event contracts. The trading volume for these contracts surged to **$13.6** billion in Q2 2026, representing a **55%** increase from the prior quarter and over ten times higher than Q2 2025 [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/finance/robinhood-event-contracts-hit-156m-beating-equities-and-crypto-in-q2-2026-280075)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e). Additionally, Robinhood launched its CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, Rothera, in June 2026, which processed between **$2.1** billion and **$3.5** billion in contracts during its partial launch quarter [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/)[[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/06/04/robinhood-prediction-markets-world-cup-rothera/).

Robinhood is positioned as an accessible platform amidst diverse competitors. In the 2026 prediction **market** landscape, Robinhood stands out as the most accessible platform for retail brokerage users [[^]](https://www.cryptoryancy.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi-vs-robinhood-2026/)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/comparisons/best-prediction-**market**-platforms)[[^]](https://www.predictengine.ai/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-q3-2026-which-prediction-**market**-wins). Its competitors, Kalshi and Polymarket, differentiate themselves through specific offerings and fee structures. Kalshi provides core infrastructure for Robinhood and focuses on regulatory precision, while Polymarket offers greater depth in global politics and crypto markets, utilizing a distinct Automated **Market** Maker (AMM) fee **model** [[^]](https://www.cryptoryancy.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi-vs-robinhood-2026/)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/comparisons/best-prediction-**market**-platforms)[[^]](https://www.predictengine.ai/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-q3-2026-which-prediction-**market**-wins). Fee structures vary, with Robinhood charging a flat **$0.02** per contract per side, Kalshi employing formula-based fees, and Polymarket using category-based taker fees or zero fees for specific categories [[^]](https://www.cryptoryancy.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi-vs-robinhood-2026/)[[^]](https://chancemetrics.com/prediction-**market**-fees)[[^]](https://www.predictengine.ai/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-q3-2026-which-prediction-**market**-wins).

Specific comparative user growth data for competitors remains unavailable. While Robinhood has established a strong **market** position, the provided research lacks specific comparative user growth data or active user numbers for competitors such as Kalshi and Polymarket leading into Q3 2026 [[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://www.cryptoryancy.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi-vs-robinhood-2026/)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/comparisons/best-prediction-**market**-platforms)[[^]](https://www.predictengine.ai/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-q3-2026-which-prediction-**market**-wins). Available information includes general discussions about potential user shifts from crypto to prediction markets and details about Kalshi's offerings, but no direct comparative statistics on user growth were found [[^]](https://www.gamingtoday.com/news/robinhood-says-prediction-markets-revenue-tops-crypto-in-record-1-31b-quarter/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN7SkZwsbr4)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=009FJfCsCAc)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9yZKlb_SdQ).

## What is the official methodology and reporting schedule Robinhood uses for its "Event Contracts Traded" KPI, as detailed in its Q2 2026 filings?

Contract Settlement Value | $1 upon settlement, traded in $0.01 increments [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm) |
Q2 2026 Event Contracts Traded | 13.6 billion contracts [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/29/3335576/0/en/Robinhood-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.html)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results) |
Public KPI Status | Not publicly disclosed in SEC filings as of Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cme-btc-event-contracts-simplified-access-to-the-brr-liquidity-complex) |

**Robinhood defines "Event Contracts Traded" and reported significant Q2 2026 figures**

Robinhood defines "Event Contracts Traded" and reported significant Q2 2026 figures. This metric represents the total number of event contracts either bought or sold through its Prediction Markets Hub over a specified period [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm). Each of these contracts is valued at **$1** upon settlement and allows for trading in **$0.01** increments [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm). For the second quarter of 2026, Robinhood announced a record 13.6 billion contracts exchanged, which indicates a year-over-year increase exceeding 10 times the previous volume [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/29/3335576/0/en/Robinhood-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.html)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results).

"Event Contracts Traded" is not an official, publicly disclosed Robinhood KPI. As of Q2 2026, this specific metric is not maintained as a company-specific key performance indicator (KPI) within Robinhood's public SEC filings [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cme-btc-event-contracts-simplified-access-to-the-brr-liquidity-complex). Event contracts are classified as regulated, exchange-listed derivatives, which makes them distinct from the general retail trading platform KPIs Robinhood typically reports [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cme-btc-event-contracts-simplified-access-to-the-brr-liquidity-complex)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cf-benchmarks-newsletter-issue-97)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/kalshi-leads-surging-crypto-event-contract-**market**-powered-by-cf-benchmarks)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cf-benchmarks-newsletter-issue-78). Consequently, there is no dedicated official reporting schedule detailed in public information for this particular metric, although Robinhood generally releases other monthly metrics approximately two months after the end of the month or following its quarterly earnings announcements [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/cme-btc-event-contracts-simplified-access-to-the-brr-liquidity-complex)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/39055449-89e2-47f7-bb16-9e3005c480c9).

## Based on historical data from 2025, is there a seasonal trend in event contract trading volume on platforms like Robinhood and Kalshi from Q2 to Q3?

Robinhood Q2 2025 Trading Volume | nearly 1 billion contracts [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-third-quarter-2025-results)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000309/q32025robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://tradeinformer.com/broker-news/robinhood-saw-1bn-event-contracts-traded-in-q2-plans-3-new-regulatory-licenses)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2025-results/) |
Robinhood Q3 2025 Trading Volume | 2.3 billion contracts [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-third-quarter-2025-results)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000309/q32025robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://tradeinformer.com/broker-news/robinhood-saw-1bn-event-contracts-traded-in-q2-plans-3-new-regulatory-licenses)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2025-results/) |
Q2 to Q3 2025 Volume Growth | more than double [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-third-quarter-2025-results)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000309/q32025robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://tradeinformer.com/broker-news/robinhood-saw-1bn-event-contracts-traded-in-q2-plans-3-new-regulatory-licenses)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2025-results/) |

**Event contract trading volume experienced substantial Q2 to Q3 growth in 2025**

Event contract trading volume experienced substantial Q2 to Q3 growth in 2025. In 2025, event contract trading volume on platforms like Robinhood and Kalshi demonstrated a distinct seasonal trend, with significant growth observed from Q2 to Q3. Specifically, Robinhood's quarterly event contract trading volume surged from nearly 1 billion contracts in Q2 to 2.3 billion contracts in Q3, representing a sequential growth of more than double during this period [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-third-quarter-2025-results)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000309/q32025robinhoodexhibit991.htm)[[^]](https://tradeinformer.com/broker-news/robinhood-saw-1bn-event-contracts-traded-in-q2-plans-3-new-regulatory-licenses)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2025-results/).

Sports-related event contracts were a key driver of this increase. This notable increase in trading volume between Q2 and Q3 in 2025 was largely influenced by the introduction of sports-related event contracts, particularly for NFL and college football, on platforms such as Kalshi in August. This launch acted as a significant catalyst, leading to the observed surge in trading activity [[^]](https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-nfl-football-trade-bet-volume-1234872696/)[[^]](https://coinfea.com/prediction-**market**-volume-soars-five-fold-in-q3-as-bets-top-3-billion/)[[^]](https://lycheedata.com/guides/kalshi-volume)[[^]](https://research.castlelabs.io/p/prediction-markets-have-never-been).

Prediction **market** activity is strongly influenced by seasonal and event cycles. Overall, trading activity on prediction **market** platforms like Kalshi is characterized by its highly seasonal and event-driven nature. Volume tends to cluster around predictable cycles, such as major sports seasons like the NFL, and significant political or economic events, rather than maintaining a continuous, steady state of activity [[^]](https://lycheedata.com/guides/kalshi-volume)[[^]](https://research.castlelabs.io/p/prediction-markets-have-never-been).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Robinhood's Q2 2026 event contract revenue reached a record $156 million, with 13.6 billion contracts traded during the quarter [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/2f42ce10-59b7-4880-8371-7d52ede7c22e)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-market-exchange).** Rothera, Robinhood's joint venture exchange with Susquehanna, launched in June 2026, handled 2.1 billion contracts and generated **$17** million in revenue during its first month of operations [[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://defirate.com/news/robinhood-prediction-**market**-revenue-surpasses-crypto-as-rothera-expansion-accelerates/). July 2026 daily average event contract volumes remained broadly in line with Q2 2026 levels [[^]](https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange).

**Prediction market catalysts for 2026 include the FIFA Club World Cup, the U.S.** football season, and the U.S. midterm elections [[^]](https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/179795/robinhood-q2-rothera-top-3-prediction-**market**-exchange)[[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/). Robinhood offers sports prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi [[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/print?id=45377686)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/45377686/kalshi-prediction-markets-disrupt-sports-betting).

**Regulatory hurdles at federal and state levels, potential limits or prohibitions on event contracts, and elevated credit provisions represent key bearish risks for Robinhood's prediction market business [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/robinhood-nasdaqhood-q2-results-signal-prediction-markets-surpass-crypto/).** The CFTC and major professional sports leagues, including the NFL and MLB, increased scrutiny on prediction markets in 2026 due to concerns over **market** manipulation and the potential for certain event contracts to be deemed prohibited 'gaming' [[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/48186339/kalshi-courts-cftc)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48338843/nfl-asks-prediction-markets-stop-manipulable-trading).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** March 04, 2027
- **Closes:** March 04, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Robinhood's Q2 2026 event contract revenue reached a record **$156** million, with 13.6 billion contracts traded during the quarter [^] [^] [^] .
- Rothera, Robinhood's joint venture exchange with Susquehanna, launched in June 2026, handled 2.1 billion contracts and generated **$17** million in revenue during its first month of operations [^] [^] .
- July 2026 daily average event contract volumes remained broadly in line with Q2 2026 levels [^] [^] .
- Prediction **market** catalysts for 2026 include the FIFA Club World Cup, the U.S.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 17 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 16 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-28400000: NO (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-28300000: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-28200000: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-28100000: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-P28000000.0: YES (Jul 29, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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