# SoFi members in Q3

members in Q3 2026

Updated: August 14, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies, KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/sofi-members-in-q3/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect SoFi members in Q3 2026 to be Above 16.7 million, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.** This aligns with SoFi's consistent member additions and management's growth guidance.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - SoFi members likely surpass 16.7 million, driven by accelerating net additions.** - Q2 2026 additions suggest total members may reach or exceed 17.0 million.
- Total members expected to exceed 16.9 million, aligning with **30%** YOY guidance.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Octagon's **34.4%** **probability** for SoFi reaching 17M+ members in Q3 2026 implies a 4.2x payout vs. 24c **market**.

This market, which concerns SoFi's total member count for Q3 2026, has seen a significant upward trend since its inception. The contract price started at a 1.0% probability and currently trades at 24.0%. The defining price action was a sharp spike around August 12, when the probability jumped from 1.0% into the mid-20s, peaking at 27.0% before settling at its current level. This abrupt repricing was not linked to any external news catalyst. According to research, the move appears to have been driven by internal market dynamics rather than a specific corporate announcement or development.

Total traded volume stands at 1,680 contracts. Notably, the initial dramatic price increase occurred on very low volume, which can suggest either an illiquid market or a move initiated by a small number of participants before broader interest developed. Since the spike, the price has established a narrow trading range between 24.0% and the peak of 27.0%. This 27.0% level now serves as the primary resistance. The market sentiment has clearly shifted from a very low probability to a roughly one-in-four chance that SoFi will meet the specified member target in Q3 2026. The current price consolidation suggests traders are waiting for new information, likely the next earnings report, to justify a move outside of this new range.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 16.9 million | 50.0% | 56.4% | Model higher by 6.4pp |
| Above 17 million | 27.0% | 34.4% | Model higher by 7.4pp |
| Above 16.8 million | 65.0% | 62.9% | Market higher by 2.1pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 16.9 million | 50.0% | 56.4% |
| Above 17 million | 27.0% | 34.4% |
| Above 16.8 million | 65.0% | 62.9% |
| Above 17.2 million | 9.0% | 5.4% |
| Above 16.7 million | 82.0% | 76.8% |
| Above 17.3 million | 4.0% | 5.4% |
| Above 17.1 million | 10.0% | 12.9% |

- Expiration: February 27, 2027

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 16.9 million

#### 📈 August 13, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 33.0% to 53.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 20.0 percentage point spike in the "SoFi members in Q3" prediction market on August 13, 2026, was likely a confluence of general market optimism and potential misinterpretation of financial metrics. On that day, SoFi shares rose approximately 8% due to cooler-than-expected July inflation data, which reduced the perceived likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike [[1]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-jumps-8-as-cooler-inflation-shifts-the-profit-test/)[[2]](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/). This broad positive sentiment, coupled with the potential for market participants to confuse SoFi's 16.9% Q2 operating margin [[3]](https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/08/02/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi-posts-40-revenue-surge-as-member-growth-hits-record-pace/)[[4]](https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/sofi/news/earnings-call/the-5-most-interesting-analyst-questions-from-sofis-q2-earnings-call) with a member count target for Q3 (compared to the actual 15.8 million Q2 members [[5]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[6]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[7]](https://blockweeks.com/news/291457)), appears to have fueled the spike. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, nor as a contributing accelerant, and was largely irrelevant based on available information.

### Outcome: Above 16.8 million

#### 📈 August 12, 2026: 48.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** The 48.0 percentage point spike in the "SoFi members in Q3" prediction market on August 12, 2026, appears to be primarily driven by internal market dynamics rather than external news or social media activity. Web research indicates there was "no evidence of an external "48.0pp" news spike catalyst" around that date, suggesting the movement likely stemmed from specific derivative market volatility or speculative betting data [[8]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem). Although SoFi announced strong Q2 2026 member growth to 15.8 million earlier in August, adding 1.1 million members, this positive news predated the specific spike [[5]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[9]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/07/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)[[10]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/656821-q2-2026/)[[8]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem). Consequently, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.

Sources:

1. [SoFi Shares Rise 8% as Softer Inflation Alters Market Profit Test](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-jumps-8-as-cooler-inflation-shifts-the-profit-test/)
2. [SOFI Stock Grinds Higher As Earnings Beat Fuels Bull–Bear Battle](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)
3. [SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) Posts 40% Revenue Surge As Member Growth Hits Record Pace](https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/08/02/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi-posts-40-revenue-surge-as-member-growth-hits-record-pace/)
4. [The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From SoFi’s Q2 Earnings Call - StockStory](https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/sofi/news/earnings-call/the-5-most-interesting-analyst-questions-from-sofis-q2-earnings-call)
5. [SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Million](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)
6. [2026 Q2 Earnings Release](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
7. [SoFi Q2 revenue jumps 43% as lending business hits new high -区块周刊BlockWeeks](https://blockweeks.com/news/291457)
8. [SoFi members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem)
9. [SoFi (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/07/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)
10. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audio](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/656821-q2-2026/)

## Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 16.9 million" contract, a "YES" resolution occurs if SoFi's Q3 member count is greater than 16.9 million. Conversely, a "NO" resolution triggers if the Q3 member count is 16.9 million or less. Trading for this market ends on October 30, 4:00 PM EDT, and the maximum payout date is stated as February 26, 2027; no other special settlement conditions are specified.

## Market Discussion

SoFi reported 15.8 million total members as of Q2 2026, representing 35% year-over-year growth, and management has maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for at least 30% total member growth [[1]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[2]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx). Prior to the July 29, 2026, earnings release, prediction market participants indicated a high probability of a Q2 2026 earnings beat [[3]](https://adanos.org/stocks/sofi/)[[4]](https://predictparity.com/markets/p/sofi-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-07-29-2026-0pt11)[[5]](https://www.veykos.com/markets/polymarket/sofi-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-07-29-2026-0pt11). Social media sentiment in August 2026 was mixed, with bearish tendencies on platforms like Reddit (31% bullish) but higher bullishness reported on prediction markets (57%) and aggregate sentiment indices (score 78/100) [[3]](https://adanos.org/stocks/sofi/)[[6]](https://altindex.com/ticker/sofi/sentiment).

Sources:

1. [2026 Q2 Earnings Release](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
2. [SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Million](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)
3. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentiment](https://adanos.org/stocks/sofi/)
4. [Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? | Parity](https://predictparity.com/markets/p/sofi-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-07-29-2026-0pt11)
5. [veykos · Terminal](https://www.veykos.com/markets/polymarket/sofi-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-07-29-2026-0pt11)
6. [SoFi (SOFI) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 78/100 | AltIndex](https://altindex.com/ticker/sofi/sentiment)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 16.7 million | 79% | 88% | 82% | 195 contracts | 75 contracts |
| Above 16.8 million | 61% | 65% | 65% | 2,349 contracts | 1,142 contracts |
| Above 16.9 million | 45% | 50% | 50% | 3,521 contracts | 746 contracts |
| Above 17 million | 24% | 27% | 27% | 2,630 contracts | 1,416 contracts |
| Above 17.1 million | 10% | 20% | 10% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 17.2 million | 1% | 8% | 9% | 328 contracts | 170 contracts |
| Above 17.3 million | 1% | 8% | 4% | 100 contracts | 50 contracts |

## What are Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates for SoFi's total members at the end of Q3 2026?

Target Members (End of 2026) | Approximately 17.2 million [[1]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi) |
Total Members (Q2 2026) | 15.8 million [[2]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf) |
Expected Member Growth (Full Year 2026) | At least 30% year-over-year [[2]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[4]](https://stockswithpawan.com/sofi) |

**A singular Wall Street consensus estimate for SoFi's total members specifically for the end of Q3 2026 is not explicitly reported in available research**

A singular Wall Street consensus estimate for SoFi's total members specifically for the end of Q3 2026 is not explicitly reported in available research. However, some analyst projections and management commentary have indicated a broader target of approximately 17.2 million members by the close of 2026 [[1]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi). This broader target provides context for potential growth trajectories leading into the fourth quarter.

SoFi's member growth remains robust based on recent reports. As of the end of Q2 2026, which concluded on June 30, 2026, the company reported a total of 15.8 million members, marking a significant **35%** increase year-over-year [[2]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf). For the entirety of 2026, SoFi management continues to anticipate an increase in total members by at least **30%** compared to the previous year [[2]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[4]](https://stockswithpawan.com/sofi).

Sources:

1. [SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI)](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)
2. [2026 Q2 Earnings Release](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
3. [Adjusted Net Revenue up 41% to a record $1.1 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)
4. [SOFI — Equity Research Report | SWP Equity Research](https://stockswithpawan.com/sofi)

## How did SoFi's member growth rate in H1 2026 compare to key fintech competitors like Robinhood and Block Inc.?

SoFi H1 2026 Member Growth | 35% year-over-year [[1]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026) |
Robinhood H1 2026 Funded Customer Growth | Approximately 6% to 7% year-over-year [[3]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1) |
SoFi Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.8 million [[1]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm) |

**SoFi significantly outpaced Robinhood in member growth during H1 2026**

SoFi significantly outpaced Robinhood in member growth during H1 2026. In the first half of 2026, SoFi reported a substantial **35%** year-over-year increase in its member base, significantly exceeding Robinhood's funded customer growth rate of approximately **6%** to **7%** year-over-year [[1]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[4]](https://zinpedia.co.uk/sofi-stock-news-price-prediction/)[[3]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1).

SoFi maintained consistent growth, while Block Inc. data was unavailable. SoFi demonstrated consistent growth throughout H1 2026, achieving a **35%** year-over-year member growth rate in both Q1 and Q2. This led to a total of 15.8 million members by the close of Q2 2026 [[1]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026). In comparison, Robinhood’s approximately **6%** to **7%** year-over-year funded customer growth resulted in 28.4 million funded customers by the end of Q2 2026 [[3]](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)[[5]](https://coinlaw.io/robinhood-vs-fidelity-statistics/). Information regarding Block Inc.'s member growth for the first half of 2026 was not available.

Sources:

1. [Adjusted Net Revenue up 41% to a record $1.1 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)
2. [Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTrader](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)
3. [Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation](https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f5aa8c24-cd37-4a94-9169-cd04759e02a1)
4. [SoFi Stock Forecast 2026: Latest News, Earnings, Risks and SOFI Price Prediction - zinpedia](https://zinpedia.co.uk/sofi-stock-news-price-prediction/)
5. [Robinhood vs Fidelity Statistics 2026: Comparison • CoinLaw](https://coinlaw.io/robinhood-vs-fidelity-statistics/)

## How might the recent acquisitions of Peach Finance and Composer Securities influence SoFi's product adoption and member growth in Q3 2026?

SoFi Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.8 million (Q2 2026) [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/de/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026) |
SoFi Total Products Q2 2026 | 24.4 million (Q2 2026) [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/de/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026) |
Expected Members Q3 2026 | Exceeding 16.9 million [[3]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[4]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)[[5]](https://zinpedia.co.uk/sofi-stock-news-price-prediction/) |

**SoFi's recent acquisitions target expanded consumer offerings and B2B growth**

SoFi's recent acquisitions target expanded consumer offerings and B2B growth. The acquisitions of Peach Finance and Composer Securities in Q2 2026 are strategically aimed at boosting product adoption and member growth by broadening consumer financial services and strengthening business-to-business capabilities [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[6]](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/sofi-ventures-into-ai-investing-with-composer-acquisition/). The Composer Securities acquisition, an AI-powered investing platform, is specifically designed to accelerate member monetization and increase retention through advanced, AI-driven investing tools, thereby expanding SoFi's direct consumer offerings [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[6]](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/sofi-ventures-into-ai-investing-with-composer-acquisition/)[[7]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-stock-trades-below-its-highs-heres-what-the-composer-acquisition-means-for-the-growth-story). The Peach Finance acquisition, a loan management platform, is intended to fortify SoFi's enterprise lending infrastructure and enhance its business-to-business (B2B) capabilities within the Technology Platform segment [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[6]](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/sofi-ventures-into-ai-investing-with-composer-acquisition/)[[7]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-stock-trades-below-its-highs-heres-what-the-composer-acquisition-means-for-the-growth-story). While Peach Finance's role in B2B is clear, its direct influence on consumer product adoption or consumer member growth in Q3 2026 is not explicitly detailed in the available findings [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[6]](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/sofi-ventures-into-ai-investing-with-composer-acquisition/)[[7]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-stock-trades-below-its-highs-heres-what-the-composer-acquisition-means-for-the-growth-story).

SoFi projects substantial member growth, surpassing 16.9 million members. As of the close of Q2 2026, SoFi reported a total of 15.8 million members and 24.4 million total products [[1]](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)[[2]](https://www.metatrader.com/de/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026). Management has provided guidance for at least **30%** year-over-year member growth for the full year 2026 [[3]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[4]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065). Based on these projections, it is anticipated that SoFi may reach or exceed 16.9 million members by Q3 2026 [[3]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[4]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)[[5]](https://zinpedia.co.uk/sofi-stock-news-price-prediction/).

Sources:

1. [Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTrader](https://www.metatrader.com/tr/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)
2. [Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTrader](https://www.metatrader.com/de/symbols/nasdaq/sofi/documents/1539827-quarterly-report-q2-fy2026)
3. [2026 Q2 Earnings Release](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
4. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlook](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)
5. [SoFi Stock Forecast 2026: Latest News, Earnings, Risks and SOFI Price Prediction - zinpedia](https://zinpedia.co.uk/sofi-stock-news-price-prediction/)
6. [SoFi Ventures Into AI Investing With Composer Acquisition](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/sofi-ventures-into-ai-investing-with-composer-acquisition/)
7. [SOFI Stock Trades Below Its Highs. Here’s What the Composer Acquisition Means for the Growth Story | TIKR.com](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-stock-trades-below-its-highs-heres-what-the-composer-acquisition-means-for-the-growth-story)

## What has been SoFi's historical quarter-over-quarter net member addition trend from Q3 2024 through Q2 2026?

Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.814 million [[1]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000050/a2026q2earningsrelease.htm) |
Net Member Additions Q2 2026 | 1,120,000 [[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf) |
Net Member Additions Q3 2024 | 756,000 [[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf) |

**SoFi consistently increased net member additions from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026**

SoFi consistently increased net member additions from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026. This period demonstrated a sustained upward trend in member acquisition, culminating in a total member count of 15.814 million by the end of Q2 2026 [[1]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf)[[3]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000050/a2026q2earningsrelease.htm).

Net member additions showed progressive growth across the period. In Q3 2024, the company added 756,000 members, which increased to 785,000 in Q4 2024 and 802,000 in Q1 2025 [[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf). This growth continued, with additions of 846,000 in Q2 2025 and 905,000 in Q3 2025 [[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf). The trend accelerated into 2026, as net additions reached 1,027,000 in Q4 2025, followed by 1,055,000 in Q1 2026, and peaked at 1,120,000 in Q2 2026 [[2]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf).

Sources:

1. [2026 Q2 Earnings Release](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
2. [2026 Q2 Investor Presentation](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Investor-Presentation.pdf)
3. [Total Loan Originations at a record $14.8 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000050/a2026q2earningsrelease.htm)

## What level of member growth is implied by SoFi management's full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance?

2026 Member Growth Guidance | At least 30% year-over-year [[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[3]](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SOFIW/transcripts/2025-year/4-quarter)[[4]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm) |
2026 Adjusted Net Revenue Guidance | $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion (32% to 35% growth) [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)[[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[6]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065) |
2026 Adjusted EPS Target | Approximately $0.60 per share [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)[[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[6]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065) |

**SoFi management consistently projects substantial total member growth for 2026**

SoFi management consistently projects substantial total member growth for 2026. The company has consistently guided for total member growth of at least **30%** year-over-year for the full year 2026 [[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[3]](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SOFIW/transcripts/2025-year/4-quarter)[[4]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm). However, the research findings do not explicitly state a level of member growth directly implied by SoFi's specific full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)[[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[6]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065). Instead, the available information focuses on SoFi management's direct member growth guidance rather than offering a separate implication derived from the financial targets.

SoFi recently updated its financial outlook for the full year 2026. As of late July 2026, SoFi raised its full-year 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to a range of **$4.75** billion to **$4.85** billion, representing **32%** to **35%** growth [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)[[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[6]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065). Concurrently, the company maintained its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) target of approximately **$0.60** per share for the full year 2026 [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)[[1]](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)[[6]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065).

Sources:

1. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings Report Q1 2026 | Beat, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.](https://247wallst.com/companies/sofi/earnings)
2. [SoFi CEO Anthony Noto Calls 2026 A 'Defining Year' Amid...](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html)
3. [SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFIW) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript - January 30, 2026 | Roic AI](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SOFIW/transcripts/2025-year/4-quarter)
4. [Adjusted Net Revenue up 41% to a record $1.1 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)
5. [SoFi's unchanged profit forecast tempers record quarter...](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-member-growth-new-loans-hit-records-2026-07-29/)
6. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) investor relations material](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)

## What Could Change the Odds

**SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is expected to announce its Q3 2026 financial results on October 27, 2026 [[1]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://www.wallstreethorizon.com/sofi-earnings-calendar)[[3]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065).** Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, are tracking SoFi's Q3 2026 member growth with a target threshold of 16.9 million total members [[4]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem). As of Q2 2026, SoFi reached 15.8 million members, a **35%** year-over-year growth, and 24.4 million products, up **42%** year-over-year [[5]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[6]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[7]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html).

**Bullish catalysts include sustained record revenue growth, successful cross-selling via the FSPL strategy, and rising products-per-member ratios [[8]](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)[[9]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-climbs-13-but-tougher-margin-outlook-sets-higher-bar-for-second-half/)[[10]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/)[[11]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/).** Bearish catalysts encompass concerns over capital intensity, potential credit charge-offs, flat EBITDA guidance despite revenue growth, and the decline of the Technology Platform segment [[8]](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)[[9]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-climbs-13-but-tougher-margin-outlook-sets-higher-bar-for-second-half/)[[10]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/)[[11]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/). **Market** analysts are currently divided, with target prices ranging from **$18** to **$25** [[8]](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)[[10]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/).

**External factors may also influence sentiment.** SoFi entered a six-year sponsorship deal with Notre Dame in July 2026, valued at approximately **$18** million to **$20** million annually [[12]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49471461/notre-dame-passes-ohio-state-richest-patch-deal). SoFi Stadium hosted World Cup matches in the summer of 2026, including an agreement with stadium workers that averted a strike during the tournament [[13]](https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/49011203/sofi-stadium-workers-union-reaches-deal-avoid-strike-world-cup). The stadium is scheduled to host the Los Angeles Rams versus Green Bay Packers game on November 25, 2026 [[14]](https://www.nfl.com/nfl-schedule-release/)[[15]](https://www.nfl.com/_amp/packers-rams-thanksgiving-eve-netflix-2026-nfl-schedule-release).

Sources:

1. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings...](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings)
2. [SoFi Earnings Date & Event Calendar](https://www.wallstreethorizon.com/sofi-earnings-calendar)
3. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlook](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)
4. [SoFi members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem)
5. [SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Million](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)
6. [Adjusted Net Revenue up 40% to a record $1.2 billion](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
7. [SoFi (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html)
8. [SOFI Stock Grinds Higher As Earnings Beat Fuels Bull–Bear Battle](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)
9. [SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) climbs 13%, but tougher margin outlook sets higher bar for second half](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-climbs-13-but-tougher-margin-outlook-sets-higher-bar-for-second-half/)
10. [Prediction: SOFI’s Next Chapter Could Be Its Most Important Yet - 24/7 Wall St.](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/)
11. [SoFi shares recover initial drop after earnings, with outlook calling for 26% EBITDA increase in second half](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/)
12. [Sources: Notre Dame passes Ohio State for richest patch deal - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49471461/notre-dame-passes-ohio-state-richest-patch-deal)
13. [SoFi Stadium workers' union reaches deal to avoid strike during World Cup - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/49011203/sofi-stadium-workers-union-reaches-deal-avoid-strike-world-cup)
14. [2026 NFL Schedule Release | NFL.com](https://www.nfl.com/nfl-schedule-release/)
15. [2026 NFL schedule release: Rams to host Packers in inaugural Thanksgiving Eve game on Netflix](https://www.nfl.com/_amp/packers-rams-thanksgiving-eve-netflix-2026-nfl-schedule-release)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** February 27, 2027
- **Closes:** February 27, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is expected to announce its Q3 2026 financial results on October 27, 2026 [[1]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings)[[2]](https://www.wallstreethorizon.com/sofi-earnings-calendar)[[3]](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065).
- Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, are tracking SoFi's Q3 2026 member growth with a target threshold of 16.9 million total members [[4]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem).
- As of Q2 2026, SoFi reached 15.8 million members, a **35%** year-over-year growth, and 24.4 million products, up **42%** year-over-year [[5]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[6]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[7]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html).
- Bullish catalysts include sustained record revenue growth, successful cross-selling via the FSPL strategy, and rising products-per-member ratios [[8]](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)[[9]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-climbs-13-but-tougher-margin-outlook-sets-higher-bar-for-second-half/)[[10]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/)[[11]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/).

Sources:

1. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings...](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings)
2. [SoFi Earnings Date & Event Calendar](https://www.wallstreethorizon.com/sofi-earnings-calendar)
3. [SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlook](https://quartr.com/companies/sofi-technologies-inc_5065)
4. [SoFi members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofi/sofi-quarter-kpi/kxsofi-26octmem)
5. [SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Million](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)
6. [Adjusted Net Revenue up 40% to a record $1.2 billion](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)
7. [SoFi (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html)
8. [SOFI Stock Grinds Higher As Earnings Beat Fuels Bull–Bear Battle](https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_08_13/)
9. [SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) climbs 13%, but tougher margin outlook sets higher bar for second half](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-climbs-13-but-tougher-margin-outlook-sets-higher-bar-for-second-half/)
10. [Prediction: SOFI’s Next Chapter Could Be Its Most Important Yet - 24/7 Wall St.](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/)
11. [SoFi shares recover initial drop after earnings, with outlook calling for 26% EBITDA increase in second half](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/)

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