# Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2

in Q2 2026

Updated: June 25, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Companies
KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/companies/sweetgreen-profit-margin-in-q2/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 profit margin to be above 8%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.** This aligns with the need for improved performance from Q1's **10.0%** to meet full-year guidance, supported by anticipated sales growth and favorable cost impacts.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin was 10.0%.** - Full-year 2026 profit margin guidance stands at **14.2%** to **14.7%**.
- Q2-Q4 performance must improve to meet full-year 2026 targets.
- New menu items, particularly wraps, are expected to boost sales.
- Wrap rollout may also lead to favorable cost of goods sold impacts.
- Management did not issue specific Q2 2026 profit margin guidance.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **97.6%** exceeds **market**'s **97.0%**, anticipating Q2 profit margin recovery from Q1's **10.0%** toward full-year guidance.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 16% | 27.0% | 20.8% | This level significantly exceeds the full-year guidance range of 14.2% to 14.7%. |
| Above 10% | 98.0% | 97.6% | Sweetgreen's Q1 restaurant-level profit margin was 10.0%, providing a strong baseline. |
| Above 14% | 79.0% | 80.5% | This aligns with full-year guidance, supported by favorable cost of goods sold from new menu items. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 16% | 27.0% | 20.8% |
| Above 10% | 98.0% | 97.6% |
| Above 14% | 79.0% | 80.5% |
| Above 8% | 97.0% | 97.6% |
| Above 12% | 90.0% | 90.7% |
| Above 15% | 50.0% | 39.8% |
| Above 18% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Above 20% | 3.0% | 2.4% |

- Expiration: September 5, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has been stable, trading in a narrow 200-basis-point range between 95.0% and 97.0%. The contract opened at 95.0% and moved to its current price of 97.0% early in the trading period. Since then, the price has remained flat. The context provides no specific corporate news or financial data release to explain this minor price adjustment. The Q2 2026 reporting period has not yet concluded.

Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only one contract traded in total. This indicates minimal market participation and liquidity. The price movement from 95.0% to 97.0% likely occurred on this very thin volume, which reduces its significance as a strong market signal. The 95.0% price level has served as a floor, while 97.0% has acted as a ceiling.

The consistently high probability suggests that market participants, though few, hold a strong and unchanging expectation for the contract's resolution. The lack of price volatility or meaningful volume implies a static consensus with no new information being priced in.

## Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves YES if Sweetgreen Inc. reports a restaurant-level profit margin above 15% for Q2 2026, verified by Fiscal.ai; it resolves NO if the reported margin is 15% or less. The market opened on May 28, 2026, and will close upon the outcome's occurrence or by September 5, 2026, at 4:00 pm EDT, with projected payout 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for those with material non-public information or employed by source agencies.

## Market Discussion

As of June 25, 2026, Sweetgreen has not yet announced its Q2 2026 financial results, with the earnings release estimated for August 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results). In Q1 2026, the company reported a Restaurant-Level Profit Margin of 10.0%, a decrease from 17.9% in the prior year period [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results). Despite the Q1 results, Sweetgreen's stock has surged due to optimism regarding its turnaround, and prediction markets currently estimate a 78% probability that the Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margin will exceed 14% [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXSG-26AUGMARGIN)[[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/investors-are-buying-into-sweetgreen-againshould-they/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 10% | 92% | 99% | 98% | $14,177.26 | $5,670.86 |
| Above 12% | 87% | 94% | 90% | $9,258.12 | $5,788.37 |
| Above 14% | 72% | 77% | 79% | $13,371.59 | $522.43 |
| Above 15% | 43% | 50% | 50% | $1,078.87 | $319.68 |
| Above 16% | 24% | 31% | 27% | $15,220.57 | $3,182.32 |
| Above 18% | 3% | 8% | 7% | $403 | $403 |
| Above 20% | 0% | 6% | 3% | $122 | $122 |
| Above 8% | 96% | 99% | 97% | $12,279.92 | $2,535.45 |

## How will Sweetgreen's new menu initiatives, particularly the wrap rollout, impact same-store sales and cost of goods in Q2 2026?

Full-year same-store sales decline guidance | -4% to -2% [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SG/transcripts/2026-year/1-quarter)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/) |
FY26 Restaurant-level profit margin guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [[^]](https://www.chartmill.com/news/SG/Chartmill-47918-Sweetgreen-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Revenue-Miss-and-Widening-Losses)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx) |
Q1 2026 Same-store sales decline | -12.8% [[^]](https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/sweetgreen-steep-sales-decline-menu-changes/819713/)[[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen) |

**Sweetgreen's wrap rollout aims to boost sales and improve costs**

Sweetgreen's wrap rollout aims to boost sales and improve costs. The introduction of new wraps is anticipated to drive incremental transactions, potentially mitigating the projected full-year same-store sales declines of -**4%** to -**2%** [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SG/transcripts/2026-year/1-quarter)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/). These wraps are also reportedly contributing to favorable cost of goods sold (COGS) impacts, primarily due to reduced preparation requirements and lower waste compared to traditional bowl and salad menu items [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.roic.ai/quote/SG/transcripts/2026-year/1-quarter)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/).

Sweetgreen's Q1 sales declined, but April showed some recovery. The company reported a -**12.8%** same-store sales decline in Q1 2026, though comparable sales declines moderated to approximately -**8%** in April [[^]](https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/sweetgreen-steep-sales-decline-menu-changes/819713/)[[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/**market**-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen). Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin guidance for fiscal year 2026 is set between **14.2%** and **14.7%** [[^]](https://www.chartmill.com/news/SG/Chartmill-47918-Sweetgreen-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Revenue-Miss-and-Widening-Losses)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx). This guidance falls below the **15%** threshold commonly observed in Q2 prediction markets [[^]](https://www.chartmill.com/news/SG/Chartmill-47918-Sweetgreen-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Revenue-Miss-and-Widening-Losses)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx).

## What did Sweetgreen management signal about Q2 2026 expectations during their Q1 2026 earnings call?

Full-Year 2026 Restaurant Profit Margin Outlook | 14.2% to 14.7% [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.stockinsights.ai/us/SG/earnings-transcript/fy26-q1-5a0a)[[^]](https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-content/uploads/Sweetgreen-Inc.-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript-_-Seeking-Alpha-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/SG/8-k-sweetgreen-inc-reports-material-event-0cf0cffac192.html) |
Q2 2026 Labor Costs | Low 29% range [[^]](https://intellectia.ai/stock/SG/earnings/transcript-FY2026Q1-2026-05-08) |
Q2 2026 Same-Store Sales | Negative 4% [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-content/uploads/Sweetgreen-Inc.-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript-_-Seeking-Alpha-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/) |

**Sweetgreen did not provide specific Q2 2026 profit margin guidance**

Sweetgreen did not provide specific Q2 2026 profit margin guidance. During its Q1 2026 earnings call, management reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook for restaurant-level profit margin, which remains in the range of **14.2%** to **14.7%** [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.stockinsights.ai/us/SG/earnings-transcript/fy26-q1-5a0a)[[^]](https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-content/uploads/Sweetgreen-Inc.-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript-_-Seeking-Alpha-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/SG/8-k-sweetgreen-inc-reports-material-event-0cf0cffac192.html). For Q2, cost component insights included expectations for food, beverage, and packaging costs to stay in line with Q1 levels, and labor costs were anticipated to be in the low **29%** range [[^]](https://intellectia.ai/stock/SG/earnings/transcript-FY2026Q1-2026-05-08).

Management outlined expected Q2 2026 same-store sales and planned initiatives. While specific profit margin guidance for Q2 was not given, Sweetgreen management discussed other Q2 trends. They projected same-store sales to land around negative **4%** [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-content/uploads/Sweetgreen-Inc.-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript-_-Seeking-Alpha-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/). Additionally, the company plans to introduce loyalty program enhancements and a rearchitected pricing ladder later in the second quarter [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/sweetgreen-sg-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/)[[^]](https://www.liptonfinancialservices.com/wp-content/uploads/Sweetgreen-Inc.-SG-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript-_-Seeking-Alpha-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/).

## How did Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 profit margin and same-store sales compare to key fast-casual competitors like Chipotle (CMG) and CAVA Group (CAVA)?

Sweetgreen Q1 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 10.0% [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results) |
Sweetgreen Q1 2026 Same-Store Sales Change | -12.8% [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results) |
Sweetgreen FY26 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/sg/0001628280-26-032197.htm) |

**Sweetgreen faced a challenging first quarter of 2026 with declining sales and low margins**

Sweetgreen faced a challenging first quarter of 2026 with declining sales and low margins. The company reported a restaurant-level profit margin of **10.0%** and experienced a negative same-store sales change of **12.8%** during this period [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results). This performance suggests a difficult quarter for Sweetgreen, particularly when compared to its fast-casual counterparts.

Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 performance trailed key fast-casual competitors significantly. In comparison, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a **0.5%** increase in comparable restaurant sales and an adjusted restaurant-level operating margin of **23.7%** [[^]](https://ir.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000027/cmg-20260429xex991.htm). Similarly, CAVA Group achieved a **9.7%** increase in same-restaurant sales and a restaurant-level profit margin of **25.1%** in the same quarter [[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://companiesmarketcap.com/cava-group/sec-reports-10q/0001628280-26-036625/). Sweetgreen's profit margin was substantially below both Chipotle's and CAVA Group's, while its sales declined as competitors experienced growth [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://ir.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2026-04-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2026-RESULTS)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000027/cmg-20260429xex991.htm)[[^]](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s202.q4cdn.com/514401993/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Earnings-Release-2026-Q1.pdf)[[^]](https://companiesmarketcap.com/cava-group/sec-reports-10q/0001628280-26-036625/).

Sweetgreen anticipates profit margin improvements, yet still lags competitors. For the full fiscal year 2026, Sweetgreen has provided guidance anticipating a restaurant-level profit margin in the range of **14.2%** to **14.7%** [[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/sg/0001628280-26-032197.htm). While this guidance suggests an expected improvement in profitability compared to its first-quarter performance, the projected margins indicate Sweetgreen will still operate with a lower profit margin relative to its top competitors in the fast-casual segment.

## Given its Q1 2026 performance, what margin run-rate does Sweetgreen need in Q2-Q4 to meet its full-year 2026 guidance of 14.2% to 14.7%?

Q1 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 10.0% [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx) |
Full-Year 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260226803934/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results) |
Q2-Q4 2026 Margin Run-Rate Calculation | Cannot be precisely determined without quarterly revenue guidance [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx) |

**Sweetgreen's Q1 margin fell below full-year guidance range**

Sweetgreen's Q1 margin fell below full-year guidance range.
Sweetgreen reported a Restaurant-Level Profit Margin of **10.0%** for the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx). This figure is below the company's full-year 2026 guidance for this metric, which is projected to be between **14.2%** and **14.7%** [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260226803934/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results).

Calculating the precise Q2-Q4 margin run-rate is currently impossible.
To determine the specific margin run-rate Sweetgreen needs for Q2-Q4 2026 to achieve its annual targets, a weighted average formula must be applied [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx). This calculation requires considering the Q1 margin and its associated revenue, as well as the anticipated margins and revenues for the subsequent quarters [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx). However, Sweetgreen has not provided specific quarterly revenue guidance for 2026, which is necessary for accurate revenue weighting in the formula, making it impossible to precisely calculate the required margin run-rate for the remaining quarters without making revenue assumptions [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507512857/en/Sweetgreen-Inc.-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx).

## What is the Wall Street analyst consensus for Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margin?

Fiscal Year 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260507512857/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/sg/0001628280-26-032197.htm) |
Q2 2026 Revenue Estimate | ~$194.4 million [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen)[[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-8-sweetgreen-inc--stock/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/)[[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/sg/earnings) |
Q2 2026 EPS Estimate | ~-$0.13 [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen)[[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-8-sweetgreen-inc--stock/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/)[[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/sg/earnings) |

**Sweetgreen has not issued specific Q2 2026 profit margin guidance**

Sweetgreen has not issued specific Q2 2026 profit margin guidance. The company has not provided an explicit restaurant-level profit margin forecast for the second quarter of 2026. However, Sweetgreen did announce a broader fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting a restaurant-level profit margin between **14.2%** and **14.7%** [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260507512857/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/sg/0001628280-26-032197.htm).

Analysts project a Q2 2026 recovery for Sweetgreen's performance. Wall Street analyst consensus for Sweetgreen's second quarter of 2026 primarily centers on a revenue estimate of approximately **$194.4** million and an earnings per share (EPS) estimate of around -**$0.13** [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/**market**-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen)[[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-8-sweetgreen-inc--stock/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/)[[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/sg/earnings). Following a Q1 2026 restaurant-level margin of **10.0%**, analysts anticipate an improvement in traffic trends for Q2 [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/**market**-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/analysts-see-traffic-driven-q2-recovery-for-sweetgreen)[[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-8-sweetgreen-inc--stock/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-q2-sales-guidance-wrap-pricing-signals-clash-2026-earnings-calls-2605/)[[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/sg/earnings).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin was 10.0%, a decline from 17.9% in the same period of 2025.** This decline was attributed to a **12.8%** decrease in same-store sales and higher ingredient and promotional costs [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026032197/q126sweetgreenearningsrele.htm)[[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://last10k.com/sec-filings/sg/0001628280-26-032481.htm)[[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-2026-05-07)[[^]](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260507512857/sweetgreen-inc-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results). Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 financial results are expected around August 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/SG/earnings/)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sg/earnings). Prediction markets on Coinbase are tracking Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margin, with specific contracts for thresholds above **14%**, **15%**, and **16%** expiring on September 5, 2026 [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXSG-26AUGMARGIN).

**Guidance for fiscal year 2026 includes a target restaurant-level profit margin of 14.2% to 14.7% and a same-store sales change of -4.0% to -2.0% [[^]](https://investor.sweetgreen.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-turnaround-hinges-proving-infinite-kitchen-stabilize-core-business-2604/).** Key turnaround catalysts for 2026 include the stabilization of same-store sales, the performance of the Infinite Kitchen automation, and the profitability of new restaurant openings [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-2026-turnaround-tactical-bet-easier-comparisons-cost-cuts-2601/)[[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/sweetgreen-turnaround-hinges-proving-infinite-kitchen-stabilize-core-business-2604/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 05, 2026
- **Closes:** September 05, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin was **10.0%**, a decline from **17.9%** in the same period of 2025.
- This decline was attributed to a **12.8%** decrease in same-store sales and higher ingredient and promotional costs [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 financial results are expected around August 6, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Prediction markets on Coinbase are tracking Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margin, with specific contracts for thresholds above **14%**, **15%**, and **16%** expiring on September 5, 2026 [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

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