# How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?

By Sep 30, 2026

Updated: September 16, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Interest Rates, Markets

HTML: /markets/financials/interest-rates/how-high-will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-get-by-sep-30-2026/

## Short Answer

**The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to reach 5.02% or above by September 30, 2026.** This outlook is supported by the yield's **5.04%** high on September 15, 2026, and anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices, with the **market** pricing this outcome at **83%** while the **model** indicates **100%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Yield above 5.04% has already occurred, reaching this level on September 15, 2026.** - Yield above **5.08%** is possible, driven by anticipated Fed hikes and high oil prices.
- The yield may peak near **5.10%** following the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

The 10-year US Treasury yield hitting **5.04%** on September 15, 2026, drives **market** expectations for further increases, with the **model** at **87.3%**.

The prediction market's largest move occurred on September 15, when the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.04%, a 16-year high. This breach of the 5% level directly drove a 24 percentage point spike in the market's implied probability, as traders priced in a higher likelihood of the yield remaining elevated. By September 16, the yield was hovering just below the 5% mark.

Earlier spikes in September established this upward momentum. On September 11, the market probability jumped 30 points on news of an oil-driven inflation scare and disappointing Treasury buyback results, which pushed the 10-year yield up by 12 basis points. This was followed on September 13 by another 15-point increase, driven by rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. These back-to-back events compounded upward pressure on yields and the corresponding market price.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5.05% or above | 77.0% | 87.3% | Anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices suggest upward pressure towards a 5.10% peak. |
| 5.06% or above | 63.0% | 74.6% | Anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices suggest upward pressure towards a 5.10% peak. |
| 5.1% or above | 29.0% | 34.3% | The 10Y yield reached 5.04%, with catalysts projecting further upward pressure towards 5.10%. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 5.05% or above | 77.0% | 87.3% |
| 5.06% or above | 63.0% | 74.6% |
| 5.1% or above | 29.0% | 34.3% |
| 5.09% or above | 31.0% | 36.5% |
| 5.04% or above | 82.0% | 91.8% |
| 5.01% or above | 70.0% | 100.0% |
| 5.02% or above | 83.0% | 100.0% |
| 5.07% or above | 39.0% | 67.8% |
| 5.08% or above | 83.0% | 67.8% |
| 5.03% or above | 99.0% | 100.0% |

- Expiration: September 30, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: 5.08% or above

#### 📈 September 15, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5.04% on September 15, 2026, marking its highest level since 2007 [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html)[[2]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html). This event directly increased the perceived probability of the "5.08% or above" outcome. This significant yield increase was primarily attributed to traditional macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation concerns, high global energy prices exceeding $100/barrel, and anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bond-selloff-drives-us-benchmark-beyond-5-stocks-rattled-2026-09-15/)[[4]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[2]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html). The provided sources do not contain any information about social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that could have driven or accelerated this price movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific prediction market price move.

### Outcome: 5.02% or above

#### 📈 September 14, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 65.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** The 15.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 14, 2026, was primarily driven by the actual 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nearing or exceeding the 5.02% threshold [[2]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html). By September 16, 2026, the yield reached 5.04%, its highest level since July 2007 [[2]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html), with market analysis attributing this increase to rising crude oil prices and inflation expectations [[2]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html). This traditional news of the real-world market movement likely coincided with the prediction market's adjustment. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no specific social media activity or viral narratives were identified as influencing this price movement.

#### 📈 September 10, 2026: 40.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 42.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that drove the prediction market's price movement on September 10, 2026. The primary drivers for the 10Y US Treasury yield spike on that date, which would make the "5.02% or above" outcome more likely, were disappointment over a $6 billion Treasury bond buyback operation and a surge in oil prices above $100/barrel amid escalated Middle East conflict, fueling inflation fears [[5]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/us-treasurys-bonds-yield.html). These events coincided with the yield hitting 4.95% on September 10, 2026, eventually reaching approximately 5.03% by September 15, 2026 [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html). Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant.

### Outcome: 5.05% or above

#### 📈 September 13, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 32.0% to 47.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the rapidly escalating expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which led to significant upward pressure on the 10-year US Treasury yield. On September 11, 2026, Treasury yields jumped 24 basis points, as market sentiment was influenced by an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike following recent CPI data [[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html). This event, just two days before the market spike, positioned the 10Y yield to rise close to the 5.05% threshold, reaching 4.97% by September 14 [[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115) and 5.041% on September 15, 2026 [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html). Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found in the provided sources.

#### 📈 September 11, 2026: 30.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 38.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market spike on September 11, 2026, was a combination of an oil-driven inflation scare and disappointing results from U.S. Treasury buybacks [[8]](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/us-treasury-yields-surge-oil-spike-buyback-results-fuel-sell). On that date, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 12 basis points, associated with an oil-driven inflation scare and the Treasury buying $5.19 billion of 10- to 20-year debt, falling short of the possible $6 billion maximum [[8]](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/us-treasury-yields-surge-oil-spike-buyback-results-fuel-sell)[[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115). There is no direct evidence from the provided sources of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives leading to or coinciding with this specific price move. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this event.

Sources:

1. [10-year Treasury yield above 5% as investors await Fed decision](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html)
2. [10-Year Treasury yield hits 16-year high at 5.04%. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-at-5-04-9-15-26.html)
3. [Global bond yields hit fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bond-selloff-drives-us-benchmark-beyond-5-stocks-rattled-2026-09-15/)
4. [How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)
5. [10-year Treasury yield tops 4.9%, highest since 2023, as oil surge raises inflation fears](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/us-treasurys-bonds-yield.html)
6. [U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)
7. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)
8. [US Treasury yields surge as oil spike, buyback results fuel sell-off - The Business Times](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/us-treasury-yields-surge-oil-spike-buyback-results-fuel-sell)

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 10Y US Treasury yield reaches 5.08% or above by the settlement date. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if the yield remains below 5.08% until the market's conclusion. The final settlement and payout for this market are scheduled for September 30, 2026.

## Market Discussion

The 10-year US Treasury yield recently touched the 5% threshold, a level not consistently observed since 2007, and was 4.97% as of September 14, 2026 [[1]](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-10yr-treasury-yields-cool-below-5-as-fed-meeting-approaches-4902881)[[2]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[3]](https://mishtalk.com/economics/10-year-treasury-yield-highest-since-july-2007-30-year-since-july-2004/)[[4]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115). Prediction markets suggest a high probability (approx. 96%) that the yield will remain above 4.60% through September 30, 2026, with substantial volume in the 4.50%–5.00% range [[5]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxust10am/ust-10-year-monthly/kxust10am-26sep30)[[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxust10am-26sep30)[[7]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[8]](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409-what-will-be-the-yield-for-us-10-year-treasury-securities-on-30-september-2026)[[9]](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409?challenge_id=140). This upward pressure is primarily driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, 2026, fueled by persistent inflation and a bearish bond market narrative [[10]](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-wednesday-now-likely-say-economists-least-one-more-follow-2026-09-14/)[[11]](https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-the-fomc-rate-decision-and-seps-due-wednesday-16th-september-2026-at-1900bst1400edt)[[12]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)[[13]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/11/treasury-yields-jump-24-bps-as-the-fed-weighs-a-rate-hike-9-11-.html).

Sources:

1. [U.S. 10-yr Treasury yields cool below 5% as Fed rate decision approaches By Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-10yr-treasury-yields-cool-below-5-as-fed-meeting-approaches-4902881)
2. [10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and markets | CNN Business](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)
3. [10-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since July 2007, 30-Year Since July 2004 – MishTalk](https://mishtalk.com/economics/10-year-treasury-yield-highest-since-july-2007-30-year-since-july-2004/)
4. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)
5. [10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? Odds & Predictions - Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxust10am/ust-10-year-monthly/kxust10am-26sep30)
6. [10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxust10am-26sep30)
7. [How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)
8. [Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409-what-will-be-the-yield-for-us-10-year-treasury-securities-on-30-september-2026)
9. [Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409?challenge_id=140)
10. [Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-wednesday-now-likely-say-economists-least-one-more-follow-2026-09-14/)
11. [Preview: The FOMC Rate Decision and SEPs due Wednesday, 16th September 2026 at 19:00BST/14:00EDT | Newsquawk](https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-the-fomc-rate-decision-and-seps-due-wednesday-16th-september-2026-at-1900bst1400edt)
12. [U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)
13. [Treasury yields jump 24 bps as the Fed weighs a rate hike. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/11/treasury-yields-jump-24-bps-as-the-fed-weighs-a-rate-hike-9-11-.html)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5.01% or above | 87% | 99% | 70% | 641 contracts | 296 contracts |
| 5.02% or above | 90% | 99% | 83% | 523 contracts | 377 contracts |
| 5.03% or above | 88% | 99% | 99% | 89 contracts | 47 contracts |
| 5.04% or above | 16% | 90% | 82% | 718 contracts | 445 contracts |
| 5.05% or above | 64% | 75% | 77% | 2,315 contracts | 1,131 contracts |
| 5.06% or above | 54% | 87% | 63% | 1,507 contracts | 497 contracts |
| 5.07% or above | 24% | 62% | 39% | 311 contracts | 106 contracts |
| 5.08% or above | 29% | 73% | 83% | 213 contracts | 193 contracts |
| 5.09% or above | 11% | 76% | 31% | 891 contracts | 68 contracts |
| 5.1% or above | 11% | 72% | 29% | 1,093 contracts | 614 contracts |

## What specific inflation metrics and oil price levels before September 30, 2026, would most likely compel the Federal Reserve to implement another rate hike?

Oil Price Threshold | Above $100/barrel (sustained) [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026)[[5]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[6]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)[[7]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260504)[[8]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3O3fMvmYMs) |
Inflation Target | Above 2% (persistent) [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026) |
Rate Hike Compulsion Timeline | Before September 30, 2026 [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026) |

**Higher inflation data and sustained oil prices could prompt a Fed hike**

Higher inflation data and sustained oil prices could prompt a Fed hike. To likely compel the Federal Reserve to implement another rate hike before September 30, 2026, August CPI and PPI readings would need to exceed forecasts, alongside crude oil prices sustaining levels above **$100** per barrel [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026). Federal Reserve officials are concerned about persistent inflation that remains above their **2%** target [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026). This inflationary pressure is largely attributed to energy shocks stemming from ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which carries the risk of broader price increases across goods and elevated inflation expectations [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)[[2]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)[[3]](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)[[4]](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026).

The Federal Reserve monitors sustained energy costs for broader inflationary effects. Policymakers have indicated that more restrictive monetary policy may be necessary if elevated inflation persists, especially if energy cost pressures from the Middle East conflict become ingrained in business expectations and wage growth rather than remaining temporary shocks [[5]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[9]](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/messages-from-president/2026/05/12/welcome-to-the-whirlwind)[[6]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)[[7]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260504). While the Federal Reserve generally prefers to "look through" temporary oil price fluctuations, a sustained level at or above **$100** per barrel, as observed in mid-2026, is considered a significant risk factor due to its potential for secondary price effects [[5]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)[[6]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)[[7]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260504). For instance, crude oil has already risen above **$100** a barrel [[8]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3O3fMvmYMs).

Sources:

1. [Fed, eyeing inflation data, may lean toward a hike, traders bet](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-eyeing-inflation-data-may-lean-toward-hike-traders-bet-2026-09-10/)
2. [Fed rate hike in September is all but guaranteed after CPI report...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/)
3. [Will the Fed Hike Rates in September? A 25-Basis-Point Move Is...](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)
4. [Fed Rate Hike September 2026: Markets Brace for 25bps Move...](https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-rate-hike-september-2026)
5. [It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Right](https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20260602-it-takes-two-to-make-an-economy-go-right)
6. [Firms' Views on the Current Oil Price Shock: Stable for Now, Risky for Tomorrow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/06/02/firms-views-on-current-oil-price-shock-stable-for-now-risky-for-tomorrow)
7. [There Is No Try - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260504)
8. [CPI and National Security since 9/11 | Bloomberg Surveillance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3O3fMvmYMs)
9. [Welcome to the Whirlwind - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta](https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/messages-from-president/2026/05/12/welcome-to-the-whirlwind)

## What are the end-of-September 2026 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield from leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan?

Goldman Sachs Sep 2026 10-year yield forecast | Not provided in public documentation [[1]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated)[[2]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-global-bond-yields-are-surging)[[3]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)[[4]](https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/market-pulse) |
JPMorgan Year-End 2026 10-year yield forecast | 4.70% by year-end 2026 [[5]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/mid-year-outlook) |
10-year US Treasury yield | 4.97% as of September 14, 2026 [[6]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)[[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG) |

**Specific end-of-September 2026 forecasts are not publicly available from leading institutions**

Specific end-of-September 2026 forecasts are not publicly available from leading institutions. Neither Goldman Sachs nor JPMorgan has provided specific end-of-September 2026 point forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield in publicly accessible documentation. Goldman Sachs has not published such a specific forecast in its public records [[1]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated)[[2]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-global-bond-yields-are-surging)[[3]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)[[4]](https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/market-pulse). While JPMorgan Global Research projected the 10-year Treasury yield to reach **4.70%** by year-end 2026, with a potential range of **4.20%** (downside) to **4.80%** (upside), this forecast is specifically for year-end and not for September 2026 [[5]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/mid-year-outlook). Furthermore, public surveys, such as the New York Fed's Survey of **Market** Expectations, do not explicitly list current end-of-September 2026 point forecasts from JPMorgan [[8]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/sep-2025-sme-results.pdf)[[9]](https://resources.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/sep-survey-sme.pdf)[[10]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/jun-2025-sme-results.pdf)[[11]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2026/mar-survey-sme.pdf).

Goldman Sachs noted elevated bond yields amid a rising September **market**. Goldman Sachs has not released a precise end-of-September 2026 point forecast for the 10-year yield in public records [[1]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated)[[2]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-global-bond-yields-are-surging)[[3]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)[[4]](https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/market-pulse). However, in September 2026, Goldman Sachs commented on global bond yields being "elevated" and "surging" [[1]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated)[[2]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-global-bond-yields-are-surging), noting that 10-year US Treasury yields had recently surpassed **5%** [[3]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets). Reflecting this trend, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was **4.97%** on September 14, 2026, marking an upward movement from **4.77%** on September 3 [[6]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)[[7]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG)[[12]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/t10y3m)[[13]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growth). Additionally, Kalshi prediction markets indicated a high **probability** (near **99%**) that the 10-year Treasury yield would reach or exceed **4.85%** (and specifically **4.94%** or above) at some point between September 9 and September 30, 2026 [[14]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)[[15]](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l).

Sources:

1. [Why Global Bond Yields Are Expected to Stay Elevated](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated)
2. [Why Global Bond Yields Are Surging - Goldman Sachs](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-global-bond-yields-are-surging)
3. [How Inflation and Fiscal Policy Are Driving US Treasury Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/how-inflation-and-fiscal-policy-are-driving-us-treasury-markets)
4. [US Market Pulse September 2026](https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/market-pulse)
5. [Mid-year market outlook 2026 - Global Research - J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/mid-year-outlook)
6. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)
7. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG)
8. [SEPTEMBER 2025](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/sep-2025-sme-results.pdf)
9. [SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025](https://resources.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/sep-survey-sme.pdf)
10. [\[PDF\] JUNE 2025 - Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/jun-2025-sme-results.pdf)
11. [SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS MARCH 2026](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2026/mar-survey-sme.pdf)
12. [10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury... - FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/t10y3m)
13. [Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growth)
14. [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)
15. [How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi oranları | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/tr/tahmin-piyasalari/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l)

## How does the market impact of U.S. Treasury debt issuance compare to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in driving 10-year yields through September 2026?

10-year Treasury yield (Sep 14, 2026) | 4.97% [[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG) |
10-year Treasury yield (Sep 16, 2026) | Hit 5% threshold [[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG) |
Probability of yield reaching 4.98% or 5.03% by Sep 30, 2026 | Nearly 100% [[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[4]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kxsofrd-26sep16) |

**Fiscal concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy primarily influence 10-year Treasury yields**

Fiscal concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy primarily influence 10-year Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has been affected by growing deficits and substantial Treasury supply [[6]](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/interest-rates-affect-bonds.html)[[7]](https://economics.td.com/ca-bond-yields)[[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil). Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, particularly under Chair Kevin Warsh, and fiscal debt issuance are critical factors [[8]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2025/international-roles-us-dollar/9_xia_demand_for_government_debt_dx_nyfed_updated.pdf)[[9]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/financial-stability-conferences/2023-presentations/2/schrimpf_slides.pdf)[[10]](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2024/five-major-factors-that-can-swing-treasury-yields.html)[[11]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/tmpg/files/TMPG_Rates_presentation_03_23_21.pdf). The Warsh-led Fed's opposition to forward guidance and **market** interpretations that higher **market** yields could substitute for policy rate hikes have increased pressure on longer-term yields [[7]](https://economics.td.com/ca-bond-yields)[[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil). Furthermore, changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, such as quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), impact yields by altering the composition of the investor base [[8]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2025/international-roles-us-dollar/9_xia_demand_for_government_debt_dx_nyfed_updated.pdf)[[9]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/financial-stability-conferences/2023-presentations/2/schrimpf_slides.pdf)[[10]](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2024/five-major-factors-that-can-swing-treasury-yields.html)[[11]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/tmpg/files/TMPG_Rates_presentation_03_23_21.pdf).

Structural shifts necessitate private investors absorbing more Treasury debt, increasing yields. Reduced foreign demand for U.S. debt and increased corporate borrowing have compelled private investors to absorb a larger share of Treasury issuance, leading to demands for higher term premiums [[7]](https://economics.td.com/ca-bond-yields)[[12]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/three-reasons-worry-about-rising-treasuries). Significant debt issuance without Federal Reserve purchasing further contributes to upward pressure on long-term rates [[8]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2025/international-roles-us-dollar/9_xia_demand_for_government_debt_dx_nyfed_updated.pdf)[[9]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/financial-stability-conferences/2023-presentations/2/schrimpf_slides.pdf)[[10]](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2024/five-major-factors-that-can-swing-treasury-yields.html)[[11]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/tmpg/files/TMPG_Rates_presentation_03_23_21.pdf). As of September 14, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was **4.97%**, having recently touched the **5%** threshold by September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG). **Market** analysts maintain a bearish outlook on Treasuries due to ongoing fiscal issuance, suggesting potential for further yield increases into late 2026 [[13]](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/excell-with-options-report-from-rich-excell/excell-with-options-report-from-rich-excell-2026-01-13.html). Prediction markets indicated a nearly **100%** **probability** of the yield reaching or exceeding **4.98%** or **5.03%** by September 30, 2026 [[1]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)[[4]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)[[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kxsofrd-26sep16).

Sources:

1. [10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy...](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/investing/bond-yields-market-turmoil)
2. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/115)
3. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nDwG)
4. [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)
5. [SOFR for September 15, 2026 - Kalshi KXSOFRD-26SEP16 noteringen | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kxsofrd-26sep16)
6. [How changing interest rates impact the bond market - U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/interest-rates-affect-bonds.html)
7. [Bond Yields: Higher for Longer — and for Fundamental Reasons](https://economics.td.com/ca-bond-yields)
8. [The Demand for Government Debt](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2025/international-roles-us-dollar/9_xia_demand_for_government_debt_dx_nyfed_updated.pdf)
9. [Shifts in Treasury yields and market functioning](https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/events/financial-stability-conferences/2023-presentations/2/schrimpf_slides.pdf)
10. [Five Major Factors That Can Swing Treasury Yields - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2024/five-major-factors-that-can-swing-treasury-yields.html)
11. [US Rates: Repricing Risks](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/tmpg/files/TMPG_Rates_presentation_03_23_21.pdf)
12. [Three Reasons to Worry About Rising Treasuries](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/three-reasons-worry-about-rising-treasuries)
13. [Excell with Options: Three Charts That Tell the Story of the Treasury Market - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/excell-with-options-report-from-rich-excell/excell-with-options-report-from-rich-excell-2026-01-13.html)

## What insights can be drawn from the Federal Reserve's September 2026 dot plot and FOMC meeting minutes regarding their long-term outlook on rates and inflation?

Fed Funds Rate 2026 Projection | 3.8% (June 2026 SEP) [[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD/1000)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lQEO)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD)[[4]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-16&rid=326) |
Longer-Run Fed Funds Rate | 3.1% (June 2026 SEP) [[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD/1000)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lQEO)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD)[[4]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-16&rid=326) |
Market Anticipated Rate (Sept 2026) | 3.75%-4.00% [[5]](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026) |

**The Federal Reserve anticipates declining rates while monitoring persistent inflation concerns**

The Federal Reserve anticipates declining rates while monitoring persistent inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve's long-term outlook, preceding the September 2026 FOMC meeting, suggests a trajectory of gradually declining federal funds rates over several years, amidst ongoing concerns about inflation. Minutes from the July 2026 meeting indicated growing concern among FOMC members, with many participants suggesting that further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not move towards the **2%** target [[6]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm)[[7]](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-policymakers-inflation-concerns-increased-july-meeting-minutes-show-2026-08-19/).

Specific projections reveal a gradual reduction in future federal funds rates. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provided a detailed long-term outlook for rates, showing a median federal funds rate projection of **3.8%** for 2026, **3.6%** for 2027, and **3.4%** for 2028, with a longer-run median projection of **3.1%** [[1]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD/1000)[[2]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lQEO)[[3]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD)[[4]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-16&rid=326). As of September 16, 2026, **market** anticipation points to a 25 basis point rate hike during the ongoing FOMC meeting, which would bring the target range for the federal funds rate to **3.75%**–**4.00%** [[5]](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026).

Sources:

1. [FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD/1000)
2. [FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lQEO)
3. [FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate...](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD)
4. [Summary of Economic Projections, Release Date: 2026-06-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rd=2026-09-16&rid=326)
5. [September Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary - Kiplinger](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026)
6. [Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm)
7. [Fed policymakers' inflation concerns increased at July meeting...](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-policymakers-inflation-concerns-increased-july-meeting-minutes-show-2026-08-19/)

## What probabilities do derivatives markets, such as Treasury options and the CME FedWatch Tool, assign to the 10-year yield remaining above 5% through the end of September 2026?

Prediction market probability for 10-year yield near 5% by Sep 2026 | near 99% [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)[[2]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H) |
10-year U.S. Treasury note yield on Sep 11, 2026 | 4.96% [[3]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/treasury-yields-snapshot-september-11-2026) |
10-year U.S. Treasury yield (DGS10) on Sep 10, 2026 | 4.95% [[4]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xdtI) |

**Derivatives markets do not directly assign a probability to the 10-year yield**

Derivatives markets do not directly assign a **probability** to the 10-year yield. Derivatives markets, including the CME FedWatch Tool and Treasury options, do not directly provide a widely cited public **market**-implied **probability** for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining above **5%** through September 2026 [[5]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)[[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/cme-fedwatch-tool-user-guide.html)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-stir-futures/introduction-to-cme-fed-watch)[[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2026/why-are-investors-divided-over-the-path-of-treasury-yields.html). The CME FedWatch Tool primarily tracks probabilities for Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) target interest rate changes, rather than specific levels of the 10-year Treasury yield [[5]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)[[6]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/cme-fedwatch-tool-user-guide.html)[[7]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-stir-futures/introduction-to-cme-fed-watch). While analysts may use Fed rate expectations to forecast the 10-year yield, the Treasury options **market** indicates hedging activity in both directions, without offering a specific public **probability** for the requested scenario [[8]](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2026/why-are-investors-divided-over-the-path-of-treasury-yields.html)[[9]](https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/fed-rate-probability-cme-fedwatch-explained/)[[10]](https://www.wbaltv.com/article/fed-meeting-bond-market-warsh/73744243).

Prediction markets show a high **probability** of the yield reaching **5%**. Conversely, prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, indicate a nearly **99%** **probability** that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach or exceed thresholds between **4.94%** and **5.00%** by September 30, 2026 [[1]](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)[[2]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H). This aligns with actual reported yields from that period; for example, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was **4.96%** on September 11, 2026 [[3]](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/treasury-yields-snapshot-september-11-2026), and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (DGS10) stood at **4.95%** on September 10, 2026 [[4]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xdtI).

Sources:

1. [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/nl/voorspellingsmarkten/kalshi/kx10yrdirhm-26sep30h)
2. [How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H)
3. [Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 11, 2026 - Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/treasury-yields-snapshot-september-11-2026)
4. [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xdtI)
5. [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
6. [CME FedWatch Tool User Guide](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/cme-fedwatch-tool-user-guide.html)
7. [Introduction to the CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-stir-futures/introduction-to-cme-fed-watch)
8. [Why Are Investors Divided Over the Path of Treasury Yields?](https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2026/why-are-investors-divided-over-the-path-of-treasury-yields.html)
9. [Fed Rate Probability: How to Read CME FedWatch Right](https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/fed-rate-probability-cme-fedwatch-explained/)
10. [The Fed meeting is a pivotal moment for the bond market - WBAL-TV](https://www.wbaltv.com/article/fed-meeting-bond-market-warsh/73744243)

## What Could Change the Odds

**The September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, featuring updated Summary of Economic Projections, its statement, press conference, rate path, and dot plot, is the largest near-term event risk for the long end of the Treasury market [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).** As of September 16, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to ~**5.001%**, its highest level since 2007 [[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). **Market** participants are focused on FOMC rate decisions, with markets pricing in approximately a **58%** **probability** of a 25 basis point hike at the mid-September 2026 meeting [[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)[[5]](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/rates-recap/2026-09-rates-recap.html). Fed funds futures price a >**92%** likelihood of a 25bp hike on September 16, 2026, which would be the first increase in over three years [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). The June 2026 Fed projections placed the median federal-funds rate at **3.8%** for 2026, indicating policy was not expected to be rapidly easing [[6]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm).

**Bullish drivers for yields include hotter CPI/PPI or oil-driven inflation, resilient growth, heavy Treasury issuance, rising term premium, or weak demand at auctions [[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[7]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html)[[6]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm)[[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).** The yield surge has coincided with renewed fighting and the Saudi pipeline closure, keeping oil elevated; US crude topped **$105**/barrel and gasoline exceeded **$4.32**/gallon [[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). Deloitte estimates a **20%** crude gain adds ~0.30pp to inflation [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). Additionally, the NY Fed extended the halt of Reserve Management Purchases for a second consecutive month, ending balance-sheet easing [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). History suggests longer-term bond yields typically rise after the first Fed hike of a cycle [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). The most probable month-end peak in the official daily 10-year Treasury par yield is approximately **5.00%**–**5.15%**, with a central estimate near **5.10%**, while a sustained move above **5.25%** appears a lower-**probability** tail [[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[8]](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409-what-will-be-the-yield-for-us-10-year-treasury-securities-on-30-september-2026)[[7]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html)[[9]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l).

**Conversely, a dovish Fed outcome, clear disinflation, weaker labor or growth data, safe-haven demand, or strong Treasury auction demand could pull the yield back toward 4.75%–4.90% [[9]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l).** Core CPI YoY fell to its lowest reading since early 2021 in August [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). Consumer/fiscal stress, including a household war bill of ~**$1,760** with **$425** from higher rates and a savings rate at GFC-era lows, could eventually slow growth and cap yields [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html). Prediction markets assign meaningful probabilities to downside volatility; Kalshi-related odds reported September 11 put a **47%** **probability** on the 10-year yield being at or below **4.78%** at some point during September 9–30 [[9]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l). Polymarket's September **market** was reported at **39%** for the yield falling below **4.76%** at some point between September 3 and September 30 [[10]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september?marketSlug=will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt76-in-september&outcomeIndex=0)[[11]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september). Good Judgment Open's September 30 forecast distribution, as surfaced in search results, assigned a **10.0%** chance of at least **5.00%** and a **0.9%** chance of at least **5.25%** [[8]](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409-what-will-be-the-yield-for-us-10-year-treasury-securities-on-30-september-2026).

Sources:

1. [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
2. [How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)
3. [www.cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html)
4. [U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)
5. [September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/rates-recap/2026-09-rates-recap.html)
6. [June 17, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm)
7. [10-year Treasury yield above 5% as investors await Fed decision](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html)
8. [Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5409-what-will-be-the-yield-for-us-10-year-treasury-securities-on-30-september-2026)
9. [How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kx10yrdirlm-26sep30l)
10. [How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september?marketSlug=will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt76-in-september&outcomeIndex=0)
11. [How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** September 30, 2026
- **Expiration:** October 02, 2026
- **Closes:** September 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, featuring updated Summary of Economic Projections, its statement, press conference, rate path, and dot plot, is the largest near-term event risk for the long end of the Treasury **market** [[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
- As of September 16, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to ~**5.001%**, its highest level since 2007 [[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html).
- **Market** participants are focused on FOMC rate decisions, with markets pricing in approximately a **58%** **probability** of a 25 basis point hike at the mid-September 2026 meeting [[4]](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)[[5]](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/rates-recap/2026-09-rates-recap.html).
- Fed funds futures price a >**92%** likelihood of a 25bp hike on September 16, 2026, which would be the first increase in over three years [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html).

Sources:

1. [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
2. [How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)
3. [www.cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html)
4. [U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/10/u-s-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-95-ahead-of-cpi-data-9-10-2.html)
5. [September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/rates-recap/2026-09-rates-recap.html)

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 15 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 15 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.99: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.98: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.97: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.96: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.95: YES (Sep 15, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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