# SoFi members in fiscal 2026

members in 2026

Updated: August 13, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/kpis/sofi-members-in-fiscal-2026/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for SoFi having above 17.6 million members in fiscal 2026, with 21.0% model probability versus 0.0% market probability.** This divergence is driven by strong H1 2026 member additions and Q2 2026 earnings, which project membership to exceed 18 million by year-end 2026.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Membership likely exceeds 18 million; Q2 2026 additions show sustained growth.** - "Financial Services Productivity Loop" strategy helps attract members at lower cost.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **21%** for SoFi exceeding 18M members in 2026 versus 0c **market**, implying 0x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 18.6 million | 17.0% | 14.0% | SoFi's current run rate projects membership to exceed 18 million by year-end 2026 due to strong H1 additions. |
| Above 17.6 million | 0.0% | 21.0% | SoFi's current run rate projects membership to exceed 18 million by year-end 2026 due to strong H1 additions. |
| Above 17.8 million | 0.0% | 20.5% | SoFi's current run rate projects membership to exceed 18 million by year-end 2026 due to strong H1 additions. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 18.6 million | 17.0% | 14.0% |
| Above 17.6 million | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| Above 17.8 million | 0.0% | 20.5% |
| Above 18 million | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above 18.2 million | 0.0% | 18.0% |
| Above 18.4 million | 0.0% | 16.0% |

- Expiration: April 29, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp repricing event. The contract opened with a YES probability of 1.0% on August 12, 2026, before jumping to 96.0% the following day. It has remained at this high level since. There has been no gradual price discovery; the chart reflects a near-binary shift from an improbable to a highly probable outcome. Given the price has not deviated from 96.0%, this level acts as a firm ceiling and an untested support level.

The catalyst for this repricing appears to be SoFi's second-quarter 2026 earnings report. The company reported reaching 15.8 million members by the end of Q2, adding 1.1 million new members during the quarter. This performance puts the company on a clear trajectory to exceed the market's resolution threshold of 17.6 million members by the end of fiscal 2026. Extrapolating the H1 2026 run rate of 1.1 million new members per quarter suggests a year-end total well above the target. The market repriced immediately after this information became public.

Total volume traded is zero contracts. This indicates the price move was likely a market maker adjustment based on the new fundamental data rather than a result of active trading between participants. The lack of any subsequent trading volume suggests a strong market consensus. No participants have been willing to bet against the outcome at the 96.0% level, implying high conviction that SoFi will meet or exceed its member target for the year.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 August 13, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 17.0%

**Outcome:** Above 18.6 million

**What happened:** The prediction market spike on August 13, 2026, appears to be primarily driven by a positive shift in broader market sentiment towards SoFi. SoFi's stock gained 8% on August 11, 2026, following news of cooling inflation which shifted expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-jumps-8-as-cooler-inflation-shifts-the-profit-test/)[[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-sofi-jumps-8-but-unchanged-profit-guidance-still-sets-the-test/). This general economic optimism likely fostered increased investor confidence in SoFi's future growth potential, even though the company's Q2 2026 earnings reported 15.8 million members [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf), below the 18.6 million target. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver.

#### 📈 August 12, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 9.0%

**Outcome:** Above 18.6 million

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 12, 2026, appears to be the broader market's reaction to cooler inflation data [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-jumps-8-as-cooler-inflation-shifts-the-profit-test/). On this date, SoFi stock (SOFI) rose approximately 8.14% due to reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September [[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-jumps-8-as-cooler-inflation-shifts-the-profit-test/). While this news did not directly address SoFi's member growth, improved macroeconomic sentiment for financial technology companies likely fostered an indirectly more optimistic outlook for SoFi's key performance indicators. Social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement, as no relevant posts from key figures or viral narratives were identified.

## Contract Snapshot

For the "SoFi members in fiscal 2026 - Above 18.4 million" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if SoFi reports over 18.4 million members for fiscal year 2026; otherwise, a "No" resolution occurs. Trading for this market concludes on January 29, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout date set for April 29, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly stated beyond the reported member count.

## Market Discussion

SoFi management has announced a forecast of at least 30% year-over-year growth in total members for full-year 2026, following a 35% year-over-year increase in total members reported for Q2 2026 [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx). Public commentary surrounding the Q2 2026 earnings, which also noted record revenue and raised guidance, showed mixed reactions among investors, with some celebrating the results while others expressed frustration over the stock's performance and questioned whether lending growth would lead to proportional earnings accretion [[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/news/sofi-earnings-sofi-stock-drops-as-record-results-fail-to-impress)[[^]](https://www.moomoo.com/stock/SOFI-US/community)[[^]](https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-shares-recover-initial-drop-after-earnings-with-outlook-calling-for-26-ebitda-increase-in-second-half/)[[^]](https://support.trustwave.com/first-dry/SoFi-Stock-Drops-9-on-Q2-Earnings-Despite-Record-Revenue-and-Raised-Guidance-56-2924).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 17.6 million | 96% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 17.8 million | 95% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 18 million | 84% | 92% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 18.2 million | 62% | 70% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 18.4 million | 32% | 40% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 18.6 million | 9% | 17% | 17% | $1 | $1 |

## What forward-looking guidance in SoFi's upcoming Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings reports could signal an acceleration or deceleration in member growth?

Total Member Growth (2026 guidance) | at least 30% year-over-year [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000008/a2025q4earningsrelease.htm)[[^]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/sofi-stocks-beat-q2-estimates-raise-2026-revenue-guidance-to-485b-23053538)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37318672/sofi-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-with-record-net-revenue-of-1-0-billion-record-member-and-product-growth-net-income-of-174-million)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html) |
Revenue (2026 guidance) | $4.75 billion–$4.85 billion [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000008/a2025q4earningsrelease.htm)[[^]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/sofi-stocks-beat-q2-estimates-raise-2026-revenue-guidance-to-485b-23053538)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37318672/sofi-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-with-record-net-revenue-of-1-0-billion-record-member-and-product-growth-net-income-of-174-million)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html) |
Adjusted EBITDA Margins (target) | >33-34% [[^]](https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/sofi-q2-2026-incredible-cross-sale)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/) |

**SoFi's member growth guidance remains consistent despite revenue raises**

SoFi's member growth guidance remains consistent despite revenue raises. SoFi management has consistently maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for total member growth of at least **30%** year-over-year. This guidance holds even as revenue guidance was raised to **$4.75** billion–**$4.85** billion in Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000008/a2025q4earningsrelease.htm)[[^]](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/sofi-stocks-beat-q2-estimates-raise-2026-revenue-guidance-to-485b-23053538)[[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37318672/sofi-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-with-record-net-revenue-of-1-0-billion-record-member-and-product-growth-net-income-of-174-million)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-ceo-anthony-noto-calls-123614698.html). Therefore, signals for an acceleration or deceleration in member growth, particularly in upcoming Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings reports, will require monitoring key operational and financial indicators [[^]](https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/sofi-q2-2026-incredible-cross-sale)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/).

Monitoring specific operational and financial metrics will indicate growth shifts. Key indicators for assessing member growth trajectory include the cross-buy rate, which measures new products opened by existing members, and adjusted EBITDA margins, with a target of over 33-**34%** [[^]](https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/sofi-q2-2026-incredible-cross-sale)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/). Additionally, the performance of the Technology Platform (Galileo) revenue and credit quality metrics, such as personal loan net charge-offs (often cited with a threshold of 3.5–**4%**), are significant to observe [[^]](https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/sofi-q2-2026-incredible-cross-sale)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/)[[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/).

Marketing efficiency and SoFi Plus are critical strategic drivers. The success of the SoFi Plus subscription offering and the efficiency of marketing spend are vital for member growth [[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/). Management's goal to achieve 1 million SoFi Plus members is intended to enhance lifetime value and decrease member acquisition costs [[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/). Therefore, any forward-looking commentary on these initiatives in the Q3 and Q4 2026 reports could signal changes in the pace of member acquisition [[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/)[[^]](https://www.altogain.it/en/sofi-reports-results-q2-2026/).

## How does SoFi's member acquisition strategy and cost in 2026 compare to that of its key digital banking competitor, Ally Bank?

SoFi Cross-Buy Rate | 43% (early 2026) [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)[[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/) |
SoFi Members | 15.8 million (Q2 2026) [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm) |
SoFi Q1 2026 Member Adds | 1.1 million (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm) |

**SoFi drives member growth via a "Financial Services Productivity Loop." This strategy for 2026 focuses on attracting new members with lower-cost offerings, such as SoFi Money/high-yield savings and credit cards [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)[[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/)**

SoFi drives member growth via a "Financial Services Productivity Loop." This strategy for 2026 focuses on attracting new members with lower-cost offerings, such as SoFi Money/high-yield savings and credit cards [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)[[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/). The objective is to subsequently cross-sell higher-value financial products to these existing members at a near-zero incremental acquisition cost [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)[[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/). This approach has proven effective, with cross-buy rates reaching **43%** by early 2026 [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://williamflemingdaniels.substack.com/p/sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi)[[^]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/transcripts/659820-agm-2026/). SoFi further supports its acquisition efforts through aggressive marketing partnerships, including collaborations with the NBA and NFL, alongside robust referral programs [[^]](https://action.alz.org/expert-time/SoFi-vs-Ally-A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Leading-Online-Banks-31-2977).

SoFi achieved substantial member growth, setting ambitious 2026 targets. The company reached 15.8 million members by Q2 2026, which included a record 1.1 million new member additions in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm). Management has set a goal of 18.5 million to 19.0 million members by year-end 2026, anticipating over **30%** annual growth [[^]](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/sofi-swot-analysis/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm).

Direct comparison of 2026 customer acquisition costs is unavailable. Public reports do not contain specific 2026 customer acquisition cost (CAC) figures for both SoFi and Ally Bank [[^]](https://action.alz.org/expert-time/SoFi-vs-Ally-A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Leading-Online-Banks-31-2977). While SoFi employs aggressive marketing and referral initiatives, Ally Bank's acquisition strategy is rooted in leveraging established brand loyalty as a traditional online banking competitor [[^]](https://action.alz.org/expert-time/SoFi-vs-Ally-A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Leading-Online-Banks-31-2977). The absence of specific details regarding Ally Bank's member acquisition cost for 2026 prevents a direct numerical comparison with SoFi [[^]](https://action.alz.org/expert-time/SoFi-vs-Ally-A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Leading-Online-Banks-31-2977).

## Based on SoFi's quarterly reports from 2024-2026, does the historical trend in member additions support a sustained pace to exceed 18 million members by year-end?

Total Members (June 30, 2026) | 15.814 million [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf) |
Projected Members (Year-end 2026) | Slightly exceeding 18 million [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf) |
Members Needed H2 2026 | Approximately 2.186 million [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf) |

**SoFi projects exceeding 18 million members by the end of 2026**

SoFi projects exceeding 18 million members by the end of 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the company reported a total of 15.814 million members. This projection, based on recent member acquisition trends, indicates the company is poised to slightly surpass the 18 million member mark by year-end [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf).

Consistent growth in early 2026 supports this ambitious target. SoFi demonstrated strong member acquisition in the first half of 2026, adding 1.056 million members in Q1 and an additional 1.108 million members in Q2 [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf). To achieve the year-end goal of over 18 million members, SoFi must acquire approximately 2.186 million new members during the second half of 2026 (H2 2026) [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000020/a2026q1earningsrelease.htm)[[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf). Maintaining a quarterly member addition rate of about 1.1 million, consistent with the performance observed in the first half of 2026, would result in approximately 2.2 million new members in H2 2026, thus keeping the company on track to surpass 18 million members by the close of the year [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf).

## What do third-party app analytics from sources like Sensor Tower indicate about SoFi's new download and user engagement trends for Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 Download/Engagement Data | Not publicly available from third-party reports [[^]](https://www.scribd.com/document/1002190883/Sensor-Tower-State-of-Mobile-2026-en-2) |
Next Earnings Call Date | October 27, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-110359871.html)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings) |
Full-Year 2026 Member Growth Guidance | At least 30% year-over-year [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-110359871.html)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings) |

**SoFi's Q3 2026 app analytics are not yet publicly available**

SoFi's Q3 2026 app analytics are not yet publicly available. Specific proprietary data concerning SoFi's download and user engagement metrics for the third quarter of 2026, as reported by public third-party analytical sources like Sensor Tower, is not publicly disclosed prior to the company's official quarterly release [[^]](https://www.scribd.com/document/1002190883/Sensor-Tower-State-of-Mobile-2026-en-2). While these external reports are widely cited for broader industry-wide mobile trends, detailed company-specific data for the current quarter is typically not released [[^]](https://www.scribd.com/document/1002190883/Sensor-Tower-State-of-Mobile-2026-en-2).

SoFi's Q3 2026 earnings will be reported in October. As of August 13, 2026, SoFi has not yet reported its Q3 2026 earnings [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-110359871.html)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings). The next earnings call for SoFi is scheduled for October 27, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-110359871.html)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings). For the full-year 2026, SoFi management has provided guidance for at least **30%** year-over-year member growth [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-110359871.html)[[^]](https://public.com/stocks/sofi/earnings).

## What is the projected impact of SoFi's new Notre Dame sponsorship deal on new member acquisition rates in the second half of 2026?

Notre Dame Partnership Announced | July 28, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49471461/notre-dame-passes-ohio-state-richest-patch-deal)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SOFI/so-fi-and-notre-dame-athletics-launch-landmark-multi-year-xtqny62uxetf.html) |
Members Entering H2 2026 | 15.8 million [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf) |
Projected Full-Year 2026 Membership Growth | At least 30% [[^]](https://qz.com/sofi-record-revenue-full-year-forecast-raised-072926) |

**SoFi's Notre Dame sponsorship aims for long-term brand building, not immediate member growth**

SoFi's Notre Dame sponsorship aims for long-term brand building, not immediate member growth. SoFi Technologies announced a multiyear sponsorship deal with the University of Notre Dame on July 28, 2026, establishing itself as the university's official financial services partner [[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49471461/notre-dame-passes-ohio-state-richest-patch-deal)[[^]](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SOFI/so-fi-and-notre-dame-athletics-launch-landmark-multi-year-xtqny62uxetf.html). This collaboration is designed to enhance unaided brand awareness and attract a younger demographic by leveraging the university's fanbase for image transfer and reinforcing brand equity [[^]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jonathanajensen_banks-are-rushing-to-grab-college-sports-activity-7490049897555968000-QMRB). However, specific projections for new member acquisition rates in the second half of 2026 directly attributable to this deal are not available, with analysts indicating it is not intended to have an immediate, direct impact on earnings fundamentals [[^]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jonathanajensen_banks-are-rushing-to-grab-college-sports-activity-7490049897555968000-QMRB).

SoFi anticipates significant overall membership growth, though not directly linked to the deal. SoFi entered the second half of 2026 with a total of 15.8 million members, having successfully added 1.1 million new members during the second quarter alone [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf). The company projects an overall membership increase of at least **30%** for the entire 2026 fiscal year [[^]](https://qz.com/sofi-record-revenue-full-year-forecast-raised-072926). Analysts and **market** sentiment are generally positive, with some forecasting total membership to reach between 18.5 million and 19.0 million by year-end 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsofia/sofi-annual-kpi/kxsofia-27janmem)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway). Nevertheless, these broader membership growth figures for 2026 are not explicitly associated with the specific impact of the Notre Dame sponsorship deal on new member acquisition rates for the second half of the year [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928695-sofi-strong-monetization-runway).

## What Could Change the Odds

**SoFi reported 15.8 million total members in Q2 2026, a 35% year-over-year increase, adding 1.1 million new members during the quarter [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2026/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-1-2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-157-Million/default.aspx)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000181887426000050/a2026q2earningsrelease.htm).** Management raised its full fiscal year 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to **$4.75** billion–**$4.85** billion, implying **32%**–**35%** year-over-year growth [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html). Other key 2026 targets include ~1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA (**33%**–**34%** margin), ~**$825** million in adjusted net income (**17%** margin), and ~**$0.60** adjusted EPS [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html). Management expects at least **30%** year-over-year member growth for the year [[^]](https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026-Q2-Earnings-Release.pdf)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html), with sustained **35.00%** year-over-year member growth observed in both reported 2026 quarters [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/SOFI/SOFI_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260813%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260813T082412Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=3199fff50db570f396a757cd537fef9ff14b424ac3cae1b61d4bb0fb0cf7d0d8#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/SOFI/SOFI_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260813%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260813T082412Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=b601af6255c8de3464db5e4bb172f94ede6ba89a955725fc3ace7ad5a928eee6#page=1). Successful cross-selling, accounting for **51%** of new products opened by existing members in Q2 2026, also acts as a bullish factor [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html). SoFi entered a multiyear deal worth approximately **$18** million to **$20** million per year to sponsor Notre Dame's athletic jerseys starting in the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49471461/notre-dame-passes-ohio-state-richest-patch-deal). The company also presented the 2026 TGL playoffs and championship in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48230482/tgl-playoffs-watch-semifinals-boston-common-jupiter-links)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48225554/how-watch-2026-tgl-playoffs-pga-schedule), and SoFi Stadium is a designated venue for the 2026 FIFA World Cup [[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/49011203/sofi-stadium-workers-union-reaches-deal-avoid-strike-world-cup)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/print?id=44241086)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/44241086/sofi-stadium-test-pitch-nations-league-2026-world-cup).

**Interest rate headwinds, with 1-2 hikes now expected in 2026, are pressuring lending margins [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-is-the-stock-down-34-this-year)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/).** Technology Platform revenue saw a **23%** year-over-year decline in Q2, indicating volatility [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-is-the-stock-down-34-this-year)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/). Concerns over credit quality persist in a higher-rate environment [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sofi-sofi-q2-2026-earnings-001606646.html)[[^]](https://www.tikr.com/blog/sofi-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-is-the-stock-down-34-this-year)[[^]](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/11/prediction-sofis-next-chapter-could-be-its-most-important-yet/). The CLARITY Act, previously a significant legislative catalyst, has stalled in the Senate as of mid-July 2026, leading to a significant fall in prediction-**market** odds for its passage and creating negative sentiment [[^]](https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/equities/sofi.html). Furthermore, SoFi’s financials still show negative free cash flow yield and a very low current ratio [[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/SOFI/SOFI_Q1_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260813%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260813T082412Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=3199fff50db570f396a757cd537fef9ff14b424ac3cae1b61d4bb0fb0cf7d0d8#page=2)[[^]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/SOFI/SOFI_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260813%2Fus-east-**1%**2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260813T082412Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=b601af6255c8de3464db5e4bb172f94ede6ba89a955725fc3ace7ad5a928eee6#page=1).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 29, 2027
- **Closes:** April 29, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- SoFi reported 15.8 million total members in Q2 2026, a **35%** year-over-year increase, adding 1.1 million new members during the quarter [^] [^] [^] .
- Management raised its full fiscal year 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to **$4.75** billion–**$4.85** billion, implying **32%**–**35%** year-over-year growth [^] [^] [^] .
- Other key 2026 targets include ~1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA (**33%**–**34%** margin), ~**$825** million in adjusted net income (**17%** margin), and ~**$0.60** adjusted EPS [^] [^] [^] .
- Management expects at least **30%** year-over-year member growth for the year [^] [^] [^] , with sustained **35.00%** year-over-year member growth observed in both reported 2026 quarters [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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