# Starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026

starlink active subscribers in 2026

Updated: August 6, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: KPIs

HTML: /markets/financials/kpis/starlink-active-subscribers-in-fiscal-2026/

## Short Answer

**The model sees potential mispricing for Starlink active subscribers exceeding 15 million in fiscal 2026 at 12.0% model vs 0.0% market.** This threshold is strongly supported by analyst forecasts projecting 16.8 million to 18 million subscribers by year-end 2026, with current growth tracking toward these targets.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - Starlink subscribers are projected to reach 16.8-18 million by end-2026.** - Subscriber counts below 16.8 million are strongly supported by current growth.
- Exceeding 18 million requires growth acceleration beyond the current Q2 rate.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

**Model** **probability** is **12%** vs. 0c **market**, as analysts project 16.8-18M subscribers by fiscal 2026.

The market for "Starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026" experienced a single, decisive price movement on August 5, 2026. The probability gapped up 90 percentage points, from a baseline of 1.0% to 91.0%. This repricing was a direct reaction to SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings report, released the prior day. The report announced that Starlink reached 12.0 million active subscribers as of June 30, 2026. This figure represented a doubling year-over-year and a sequential increase of 1.7 million subscribers from Q1, providing a concrete data point that fundamentally altered the outlook for the fiscal year-end total.

Total traded volume for this contract is zero. The price spike reflects an immediate adjustment based on new public information, not a gradual discovery process through contested trades. The lack of volume suggests a swift and uniform consensus formed around the new subscriber data. The chart shows no established support or resistance levels between the initial 1.0% floor and the current 91.0% ceiling. The market sentiment is now overwhelmingly positive, with the 91.0% price indicating a high degree of confidence that Starlink's subscriber count will exceed the 15 million threshold by the end of fiscal 2026. The market is extrapolating the reported Q2 momentum through the rest of the fiscal year.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 19 million | 15.0% | 5.0% | Market higher by 10.0pp |
| Above 17 million | 37.0% | 12.0% | Market higher by 25.0pp |
| Above 16.5 million | 51.0% | 12.0% | Market higher by 39.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 19 million | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Above 17 million | 37.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 16.5 million | 51.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 15 million | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 15.5 million | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 16 million | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 17.5 million | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 18 million | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Above 18.5 million | 0.0% | 8.0% |

- Expiration: May 16, 2027

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 August 05, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

**Outcome:** Above 15 million

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 90 percentage point spike was the **SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings report**, released on August 4, 2026 [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-quarterly-revenue-surges-debut-results-strong-growth-its-starlink-2026-08-04/). The report announced Starlink had reached 12 million active subscribers as of June 2026, marking a robust 1.7 million net increase from the previous quarter [[2]](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spacex-planning-terrestrial-deployments-to-support-direct-to-device/). This strong growth, alongside existing analyst projections for Starlink to exceed 15 million subscribers by year-end, likely intensified market confidence in achieving the "Above 15 million" outcome for fiscal 2026 [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-quarterly-revenue-surges-debut-results-strong-growth-its-starlink-2026-08-04/). Social media activity following the report primarily amplified discussions around SpaceX’s revenue and aggressive future goals, acting as a contributing accelerant rather than the primary cause of the market's dramatic shift towards the 15 million subscriber target [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-quarterly-revenue-surges-debut-results-strong-growth-its-starlink-2026-08-04/).

Sources:

1. [SpaceX revenue jumps in debut results as satellite, AI...](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-quarterly-revenue-surges-debut-results-strong-growth-its-starlink-2026-08-04/)
2. [SpaceX Planning Terrestrial Deployments to Support Direct-to-Device](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spacex-planning-terrestrial-deployments-to-support-direct-to-device/)

## Contract Snapshot

For each contract in this market (e.g., "Above 16.5 million"), a "YES" resolution is triggered if Starlink's active subscribers in fiscal 2026 exceed the stated numerical threshold. A "NO" resolution occurs if the subscriber count is at or below that threshold. Trading for these contracts ends on February 15, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 16, 2027. No special settlement conditions or specific data sources are explicitly mentioned in the provided content.

## Market Discussion

Starlink reported approximately 10.3 million active subscribers as of March 31, 2026 [[1]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/), [[2]](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/GOOGL/GOOGL_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075745Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=be8f4d5022803298ea2b37aa0169e49b0e580e3035b63a849ae096f6a3c147e6#page=1)-[[3]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075801Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=1a954ae34fadb04744a847aae945d72c6f885f8680b3314851745f40d1de4c0f#page=25), with some sources indicating around 12 million by June 2026 [[1]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/). Analyst forecasts for Starlink's active subscribers by the end of fiscal 2026 generally range from 14.8 million to 18.4 million [[4]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[5]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[6]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)[[7]](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/even-with-bigger-birds-starlink-still-best-suited-to-low-density-markets-study)[[8]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jack-kuhr-ab9a945b_just-published-our-2026-spacex-model-ahead-activity-7420484026307743746-SXqx), with one bank projecting 18 million [[5]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/). This subscriber growth is a central KPI for valuing the company, particularly as SpaceX filed for an IPO in May 2026 [[9]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-starlink-growth-profit-nasdaq-ipo.html)[[10]](https://www.abianalytics.com/SpaceX_IPO_Summary.html)[[11]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/polymarket_spacex-ipo-vc-activity-7445132896182566913-4D1H).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Statistics 2026: Subscribers, Revenue, Speed & Constellation Data - Axis Intelligence](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)
2. [GOOGL_Q22026, Page: 1](https://octagonai.co/files/transcripts/GOOGL/GOOGL_Q2_2026.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075745Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=be8f4d5022803298ea2b37aa0169e49b0e580e3035b63a849ae096f6a3c147e6#page=1)
3. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 25](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075801Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=1a954ae34fadb04744a847aae945d72c6f885f8680b3314851745f40d1de4c0f#page=25)
4. [Starlink Financial Overview 2025 2H & 2026 Forecast | Quilty Space](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)
5. [Bank: “Too many LEO constellations” but 18m Starlink customers by end 2026 – SatNews](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)
6. [Analyst Projects Massive Subscription Growth for Starlink...](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)
7. [Even with the V3, Starlink 'best suited to low-density markets'](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/even-with-bigger-birds-starlink-still-best-suited-to-low-density-markets-study)
8. [Just published our 2026 SpaceX model ahead of the planned summer IPO. | Jack Kuhr](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jack-kuhr-ab9a945b_just-published-our-2026-spacex-model-ahead-activity-7420484026307743746-SXqx)
9. [SpaceX reliant on Starlink for growth, profit as it heads to Nasdaq](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-starlink-growth-profit-nasdaq-ipo.html)
10. [SpaceX IPO Prospectus – Summary | ABI Analytics](https://www.abianalytics.com/SpaceX_IPO_Summary.html)
11. [🚨 BREAKING: SpaceX has filed confidentially for IPO, in what will likely be the largest IPO in history. Here's the full details: | Polymarket](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/polymarket_spacex-ipo-vc-activity-7445132896182566913-4D1H)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 15 million | 90% | 99% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 15.5 million | 80% | 90% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 16 million | 63% | 73% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 16.5 million | 50% | 59% | 51% | 1 contracts | 1 contracts |
| Above 17 million | 36% | 45% | 37% | 81 contracts | 28 contracts |
| Above 17.5 million | 25% | 35% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 18 million | 15% | 25% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 18.5 million | 10% | 20% | 0% | 0 contracts | 0 contracts |
| Above 19 million | 5% | 15% | 15% | 225 contracts | 225 contracts |

## What are the consensus analyst forecasts for Starlink's subscriber count by year-end 2026, and what assumptions underpin Q3 and Q4 growth rates?

2026 Year-End Subscriber Forecast | 16.8 million to 18 million active global broadband subscribers [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)[[4]](https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/) |
Subscribers as of June 2026 | Approximately 12 million active broadband subscribers [[5]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/) |
Annual Satellite Manufacturing Capacity | Over 4,000 units [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/) |

**Starlink is projected to reach 16.8 to 18 million subscribers by 2026**

Starlink is projected to reach 16.8 to 18 million subscribers by 2026. Consensus analyst forecasts predict Starlink will achieve between 16.8 million and 18 million active global broadband subscribers by year-end 2026 [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)[[4]](https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/). This projection builds upon the company's reported 12 million active broadband subscribers as of June 2026, indicating significant progress toward these targets [[5]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/).

Multiple factors contribute to Starlink's anticipated subscriber growth by 2026. Key assumptions underpinning this growth include the potential for Starlink to double its subscriber base for a third consecutive year, alongside extensive expansion into new geographical markets and strategic pricing initiatives designed to compete with terrestrial internet providers [[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/). Further supporting this expansion are efforts to scale satellite manufacturing capacity to over 4,000 units annually, increased deployment of v2 mini satellites, and an expanded global gateway network [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/). Demand from government and enterprise sectors is also expected to complement consumer adoption [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Financial Overview 2025 2H & 2026 Forecast](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)
2. [Bank: “Too many LEO constellations” but 18m Starlink customers by end 2026 – SatNews](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)
3. [Analyst Projects Massive Subscription Growth for Starlink...](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)
4. [Forecast: SpaceX tracking to $20bn revenue in 2026 | Advanced Television](https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/)
5. [Starlink Statistics 2026: Subscribers, Revenue, Speed & Constellation Data - Axis Intelligence](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)

## How will the deployment schedule and performance of V3 satellites via Starship in H2 2026 impact Starlink's network capacity and ability to onboard new subscribers?

V3 Downlink Capacity | 1 Tbps [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/) |
V3 Uplink Capacity | 160 Gbps [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/) |
Capacity per V3 Launch | 60 Tbps [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/) |

**Initial V3 satellite deployment focuses on de-risking launch architecture**

Initial V3 satellite deployment focuses on de-risking launch architecture. The deployment of Starlink V3 satellites via Starship in H2 2026 is primarily aimed at validating the launch architecture, rather than immediately expanding network capacity or onboarding new subscribers [[4]](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/starship-completes-first-test-flight-with-starlink-v3-satellites)[[5]](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spacex-test-drives-potent-v3-sats-targeting-urban-america-time-for-isps-to-panic/). Meaningful impacts on network capacity and subscriber onboarding are projected for 2027, once approximately 1,000 V3 satellites achieve a critical mass in orbit [[4]](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/starship-completes-first-test-flight-with-starlink-v3-satellites)[[5]](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spacex-test-drives-potent-v3-sats-targeting-urban-america-time-for-isps-to-panic/).

V3 satellites offer substantial performance upgrades, increasing network capacity. SpaceX is currently in the early testing phase for Starlink V3 deployment using Starship, having successfully conducted a payload deployment test on July 24, 2026 [[6]](https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-begin-starship-orbital-flights/)[[7]](https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/24/spacex-launches-new-v3-starlink-satellites-but-suffers-another-booster-failure/)[[4]](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/starship-completes-first-test-flight-with-starlink-v3-satellites). These V3 satellites represent a substantial performance upgrade, offering approximately 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink capacity [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/). These capacities are roughly 10 times and 22 times higher than V2 models, respectively [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/). Each successful V3 launch is anticipated to add 60 Tbps of network capacity [[1]](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)[[2]](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)[[3]](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/).

Sources:

1. [Starlink | Network Update](https://starlink.com/updates/network-update)
2. [Starlink Version 3 Satellites](https://starlink.com/updates/starlink-version-3-satellites)
3. [Starlink V3 Boosts Per-Satellite Downlink Capacity to 1 Tbps - Converge Digest](https://convergedigest.com/starlink-v3-boosts-per-satellite-downlink-capacity-to-1-tbps/)
4. [Starship wraps first test flight with Starlink 'V3' satellites](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/starship-completes-first-test-flight-with-starlink-v3-satellites)
5. [SpaceX Test Drives Potent V3 Sats Targeting Urban America – Time for ISPs to Panic?](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spacex-test-drives-potent-v3-sats-targeting-urban-america-time-for-isps-to-panic/)
6. [SpaceX to begin Starship orbital flights - SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-begin-starship-orbital-flights/)
7. [SpaceX launches new V3 Starlink satellites but suffers another booster failure | TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/24/spacex-launches-new-v3-starlink-satellites-but-suffers-another-booster-failure/)

## How does Starlink's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth strategy for fiscal 2026 compare to key satellite internet competitors like Viasat and Amazon's Project Kuiper?

Starlink ARPU Q1 2026 | ~$66 [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)[[2]](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/06/03/assessing-spacex-finances-addressable-market-and-the-ai-pitch-ahead-of-ipo/)[[3]](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexs-starlink-revenue-per-user-fell-18-customers-quadrupled) |
Amazon Leo Enterprise Beta | April 2026 [[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/amazon-has-deployed-enough-satellites-to-launch-leo-service-this-year.html)[[5]](https://thenextweb.com/news/amazon-leo-satellite-internet-mid-2026) |
Amazon Leo Direct-to-Device Network Deployment | Expected 2028 [[6]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/amazon-satellite-internet-network.html) |

**Starlink's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) continues to decline into 2026**

Starlink's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) continues to decline into 2026. This figure dropped to approximately **$66** in the first quarter of 2026, down from **$81** in 2025 and **$99** in 2023. This trend is largely attributed to the service's expansion into more developed markets, which exhibit higher price sensitivity [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)[[2]](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/06/03/assessing-spacex-finances-addressable-market-and-the-ai-pitch-ahead-of-ipo/)[[3]](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexs-starlink-revenue-per-user-fell-18-customers-quadrupled). For 2026, Starlink's strategic growth initiatives include increasing network capacity through Starship and V3 satellites, expanding into enterprise and government sectors, and exploring future opportunities in direct-to-cell services and orbital data centers [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)[[7]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)[[2]](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/06/03/assessing-spacex-finances-addressable-market-and-the-ai-pitch-ahead-of-ipo/).

Viasat and Amazon Leo pursue distinct strategies for fiscal 2026. Viasat's fiscal 2026 strategy focuses on stabilizing its fixed broadband business with the integration of ViaSat-3 into service. The company also aims to grow its Defense and Advanced Technologies (DAT) segment and develop multi-orbit, multi-tenant infrastructure through its Equatys venture, which will cater to next-generation mobile and direct-to-device services [[8]](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vsat/transcripts/552758-q4-2026/)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797721/000119312526245304/d133220dex992.htm)[[10]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797721/000119312526318073/d144031dars.pdf)[[11]](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/05/29/viasat-full-year-26-takeaways-record-revenue-equatys-moves-forward/). Amazon's satellite internet service, now known as Amazon Leo, entered an enterprise beta phase in April 2026, with an initial commercial service launch targeted for late 2026 [[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/amazon-has-deployed-enough-satellites-to-launch-leo-service-this-year.html)[[5]](https://thenextweb.com/news/amazon-leo-satellite-internet-mid-2026). Amazon Leo is also seeking federal approval for a 5,105-satellite direct-to-device network, with deployment anticipated to begin in 2028 [[6]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/amazon-satellite-internet-network.html). There is no available information regarding Viasat's or Amazon Leo's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for fiscal 2026, which prevents a direct ARPU comparison with Starlink.

Sources:

1. [SpaceX Starlink is ahead of competitors, but growth...](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)
2. [Assessing SpaceX Finances, Addressable Market, and the AI Pitch Ahead of IPO - Via Satellite](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/06/03/assessing-spacex-finances-addressable-market-and-the-ai-pitch-ahead-of-ipo/)
3. [SpaceX's Starlink Revenue Per User Fell 18% As...](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexs-starlink-revenue-per-user-fell-18-customers-quadrupled)
4. [Amazon has deployed enough satellites to launch Leo service this year](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/amazon-has-deployed-enough-satellites-to-launch-leo-service-this-year.html)
5. [Amazon Leo targets mid-2026 commercial launch as enterprise beta goes live](https://thenextweb.com/news/amazon-leo-satellite-internet-mid-2026)
6. [Amazon seeks to launch 5,105 satellites for direct-to-device network](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/amazon-satellite-internet-network.html)
7. [SpaceX (SPCX) Q2 2026 Earnings Report: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)
8. [Viasat (VSAT) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audio](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vsat/transcripts/552758-q4-2026/)
9. [EX-99.2](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797721/000119312526245304/d133220dex992.htm)
10. [Annual Report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797721/000119312526318073/d144031dars.pdf)
11. [Viasat Full Year ‘26 Takeaways: Record Revenue, Equatys Moves Forward - Via Satellite](https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2026/05/29/viasat-full-year-26-takeaways-record-revenue-equatys-moves-forward/)

## What is the geographic distribution of Starlink's subscriber base as of H2 2026, and which regions are expected to be the primary drivers of growth through the end of the year?

Global Active Subscribers (June 2026) | 11.83 million [[1]](https://idemest.com/reports/starlink-subscriber-country-tracker/) |
Projected Active Subscribers (end of 2026) | 16.8 million to 18 million [[2]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-10-million-subscribers-mobile-spacex-ipo-2026/) |
Brazil and Argentina Share | Over 22% of global active users [[4]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)[[5]](https://apptopia.com/en/insights/starlink-app-data-signals-broadening-growth-ahead-of-spacex-ipo/)[[6]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/starlink-user-growth-accelerates-as-spacex-eyes-public-market-debut-report-says-4618445) |

**Starlink’s global subscriber count reached almost 12 million by mid-2026**

Starlink’s global subscriber count reached almost 12 million by mid-2026. As of June 2026, Starlink reported approximately 11.83 million active subscribers globally [[1]](https://idemest.com/reports/starlink-subscriber-country-tracker/). North America holds the largest share, accounting for about 4.82 million subscribers. Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Argentina, have been significant drivers of recent growth, together representing over **22%** of the global active user base [[4]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)[[5]](https://apptopia.com/en/insights/starlink-app-data-signals-broadening-growth-ahead-of-spacex-ipo/)[[6]](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/starlink-user-growth-accelerates-as-spacex-eyes-public-market-debut-report-says-4618445). Other notable regional distributions include Asia with 1.89 million subscribers, South America with 1.61 million, and Europe with 1.07 million [[1]](https://idemest.com/reports/starlink-subscriber-country-tracker/).

Significant subscriber growth is anticipated through the end of 2026. Analysts project Starlink to expand its active subscriber base to between 16.8 million and 18 million by the end of 2026 [[2]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-10-million-subscribers-mobile-spacex-ipo-2026/). This anticipated growth is expected to be fueled by continued expansion into new emerging markets, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, along with increased penetration in the maritime and aviation sectors. Additionally, potential new **market** entries, like India, and the rollout of satellite-to-cell services are also identified as key drivers for future subscriber acquisition [[4]](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)[[7]](https://insights.opensignal.com/2026/03/from-last-resort-to-first-choice-why-starlink-is-gaining-new-customers-worldwide/dt).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Subscribers by Country Data Tracker – 2026](https://idemest.com/reports/starlink-subscriber-country-tracker/)
2. [Starlink Financial Overview 2025 2H & 2026 Forecast | Quilty Space](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)
3. [Starlink Passes 10 Million Subscribers with 6 Million](https://tesorb.com/starlink-10-million-subscribers-mobile-spacex-ipo-2026/)
4. [Starlink Statistics 2026: Subscribers, Revenue, Speed & Constellation Data - Axis Intelligence](https://axis-intelligence.com/starlink-statistics/)
5. [Starlink App Data Signals Broadening Growth Ahead of SpaceX IPO - Apptopia](https://apptopia.com/en/insights/starlink-app-data-signals-broadening-growth-ahead-of-spacex-ipo/)
6. [Starlink user growth accelerates as SpaceX eyes public market debut, report says By Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/starlink-user-growth-accelerates-as-spacex-eyes-public-market-debut-report-says-4618445)
7. [From last resort to first choice: Why Starlink is gaining new customers worldwide | Opensignal](https://insights.opensignal.com/2026/03/from-last-resort-to-first-choice-why-starlink-is-gaining-new-customers-worldwide/dt)

## What subscriber growth can be expected from Starlink's Direct-to-Cell service following the integration of EchoStar's spectrum in the second half of 2026?

Starlink Mobile MAU Target | 25 million by end of 2026 [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/) |
Starlink Broadband Subscribers Q1 2026 | Over 10 million [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/)[[4]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/) |
Starlink Broadband Subscriber Projection 2026 | 16.8-18 million [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/)[[4]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/) |

**Starlink Mobile targets 25 million users by late 2026**

Starlink Mobile targets 25 million users by late 2026. Starlink's Direct-to-Cell service, known as Starlink Mobile, has set an internal objective of 25 million monthly active users (MAUs) by the close of 2026 [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/). This ambitious goal is supported by ongoing carrier partnerships and efforts to achieve global spectrum harmonization [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/). A key element in this expansion involves SpaceX commencing tests of EchoStar's spectrum (including AWS-4, H Block, and unpaired AWS-3) for the service in mid-2026, following its approval by the FCC in May 2026 [[5]](https://www.phonearena.com/news/spacex-testing-echostar-spectrum-v2-satellites_id181466)[[6]](https://www.fcc.gov/document/order-granting-spacex-echostar-applications)[[7]](https://spacenews.com/fcc-approves-spacex-spectrum-deal-with-2-4-billion-escrow-condition/)[[8]](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/starlink/spacex-takes-d2d-into-the-5g-era-on-next-gen-birds/).

EchoStar spectrum enables advanced mobile voice and data services. The integration of EchoStar spectrum is considered vital for transforming Starlink Mobile from offering basic messaging capabilities to providing reliable mobile voice and data services [[5]](https://www.phonearena.com/news/spacex-testing-echostar-spectrum-v2-satellites_id181466)[[8]](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/starlink/spacex-takes-d2d-into-the-5g-era-on-next-gen-birds/). While testing began in 2026, the comprehensive integration and substantial "generational upgrades" leveraging this spectrum are anticipated to be fully implemented with the launch of V2 satellites in 2027 [[5]](https://www.phonearena.com/news/spacex-testing-echostar-spectrum-v2-satellites_id181466)[[8]](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/starlink/spacex-takes-d2d-into-the-5g-era-on-next-gen-birds/).

Starlink's broadband service also projects significant subscriber growth. Separately, analysts forecast Starlink's total active subscriber base for its broadband service to reach between 16.8 million and 18 million by the end of 2026 [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/)[[4]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/). This builds on a reported subscriber count of more than 10 million for the broadband service in Q1 2026 [[1]](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)[[3]](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)[[2]](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/)[[4]](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Financial Overview 2025 2H & 2026 Forecast](https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast)
2. [The Starlink Business Tracker: Subscriber Growth, MVNO](https://tesorb.com/starlink-business-tracker/)
3. [Bank: “Too many LEO constellations” but 18m Starlink customers by end 2026 – SatNews](https://satnews.com/2026/02/16/bank-too-many-leo-constellations-but-18m-starlink-customers-by-end-2026/)
4. [Analyst Projects Massive Subscription Growth for Starlink...](https://satnews.com/2026/06/07/analyst-projects-massive-subscription-growth-for-starlink-ahead-of-imminent-spacex-ipo/)
5. [SpaceX sends warning to AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon by testing EchoStar spectrum and next-gen satellites - PhoneArena](https://www.phonearena.com/news/spacex-testing-echostar-spectrum-v2-satellites_id181466)
6. [Order Granting SpaceX-EchoStar Applications | Federal Communications Commission](https://www.fcc.gov/document/order-granting-spacex-echostar-applications)
7. [FCC approves SpaceX spectrum deal with $2.4 billion escrow condition - SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/fcc-approves-spacex-spectrum-deal-with-2-4-billion-escrow-condition/)
8. [SpaceX takes D2D into the 5G era on n... - Mobile World Live](https://www.mobileworldlive.com/starlink/spacex-takes-d2d-into-the-5g-era-on-next-gen-birds/)

## What Could Change the Odds

**Starlink reached 12 million active subscribers by the end of Q2 2026, representing a 1.7 million sequential increase from Q1 2026 [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFnXIwyPKDY)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4).** This growth led to **$4.29** billion in connectivity segment revenue for Q2 2026, alongside **$1.66** billion in operating income and **$2.597** billion in Segment Adjusted EBITDA [[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html). Average revenue per user (ARPU) held steady at **$66** per month [[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html).

**Future growth is contingent on several factors, including the deployment of high-capacity V3 satellites, targeted for operation on Starship flight 14 [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[11]](https://www.techspot.com/news/112669-starlink-crosses-12-million-active-users-spacex-outlines.html)[[12]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html).** The expansion of enterprise and government contracts also serves as a key driver, having increased **108%** year-over-year in Q2 2026 [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[11]](https://www.techspot.com/news/112669-starlink-crosses-12-million-active-users-spacex-outlines.html)[[12]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html). The Q2 subscriber growth figure reflected a year-over-year doubling, signaling strong demand momentum [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4).

**However, headwinds exist.** These include increased price sensitivity within urban markets and the high capital expenditure demands associated with SpaceX's broader AI segment [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)[[12]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)[[13]](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-first-earnings-report-spcx-stock-lockup-period-expiration-2026-8). Scaling constellation capacity heavily relies on the successful operationalization of Starship [[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)[[12]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)[[14]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th_MqEveiQA). Furthermore, the available evidence for fiscal 2026 covers only Q1 and Q2, leaving the full fiscal-year trajectory without complete visibility [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Hits 12 Million Subscribers, V3 Satellites Headed to Operational Orbit](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)
2. [SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)
3. [SpaceX (SPCX) Q2 2026 Earnings Report: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)
4. [SpaceX Is a Compelling Investment, Gerber Says](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFnXIwyPKDY)
5. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)
6. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 6](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)
7. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 34](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)
8. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 5](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)
9. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 2](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)
10. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4)
11. [Starlink hits 12 million subscribers, plans 100x bandwidth boost with V3 satellites | TechSpot](https://www.techspot.com/news/112669-starlink-crosses-12-million-active-users-spacex-outlines.html)
12. [SpaceX Starlink is ahead of competitors, but growth is getting harder](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)
13. [SpaceX Earnings Recap: Stock Drops 7% As AI Capex Tops Estimates - Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-first-earnings-report-spcx-stock-lockup-period-expiration-2026-8)
14. [Chip Stock Rout Deepens on AI Debt Jitters, China Competition | Bloomberg Businessweek](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th_MqEveiQA)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 16, 2027
- **Closes:** May 16, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Starlink reached 12 million active subscribers by the end of Q2 2026, representing a 1.7 million sequential increase from Q1 2026 [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)[[4]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFnXIwyPKDY)[[5]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)[[6]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)[[7]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)[[8]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)[[9]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)[[10]](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4).
- This growth led to **$4.29** billion in connectivity segment revenue for Q2 2026, alongside **$1.66** billion in operating income and **$2.597** billion in Segment Adjusted EBITDA [[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html).
- Average revenue per user (ARPU) held steady at **$66** per month [[2]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html).
- Future growth is contingent on several factors, including the deployment of high-capacity V3 satellites, targeted for operation on Starship flight 14 [[1]](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)[[11]](https://www.techspot.com/news/112669-starlink-crosses-12-million-active-users-spacex-outlines.html)[[12]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html).

Sources:

1. [Starlink Hits 12 Million Subscribers, V3 Satellites Headed to Operational Orbit](https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/166548/starlink-hits-12-million-subscribers-v3-satellites-headed-to-operational)
2. [SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf)
3. [SpaceX (SPCX) Q2 2026 Earnings Report: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html)
4. [SpaceX Is a Compelling Investment, Gerber Says](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFnXIwyPKDY)
5. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=4)
6. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 6](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=6)
7. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 34](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=34)
8. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 5](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-026673/tsla-20260331.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ce6943ba06309e842fd4816ee5047bc10162d202089be1f1eea18061d9641f13#page=5)
9. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 2](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=2)
10. [Tesla, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 4](https://octagonai.co/files/sec-filings/1318605/0001628280-26-049270/tsla-20260630.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=663e4f53311b0b0fa6c9e0c596c6bb4c%2F20260806%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20260806T075842Z&X-Amz-Expires=604800&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=d245f4261813a4fe056e14cf75ab7e8a555bd0c9ae5e2b13db851ee3387aa6be#page=4)
11. [Starlink hits 12 million subscribers, plans 100x bandwidth boost with V3 satellites | TechSpot](https://www.techspot.com/news/112669-starlink-crosses-12-million-active-users-spacex-outlines.html)
12. [SpaceX Starlink is ahead of competitors, but growth is getting harder](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/spacex-starlink-growth-getting-harder-ahead-of-ipo.html)

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