# S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?

On Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST

Updated: February 13, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: S&P

HTML: /markets/financials/s-p/s-p-price-on-feb-13-2026-at-12pm-est/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that the S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST will be 6,700 or above, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Market anticipated stable federal funds rates in 2025, followed by easing.** - S&P 500 concentration reached new highs, driven by top tech firms.
- S&P 500 earnings growth was **12.1%** by December 2025.
- Inverted Treasury yield curve signaled recession **probability** by February 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** Octagon's **0%** **model** versus 22c **market** price suggests a 4.7x payout, amid **55%** recession **probability**.

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 0.0% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 21.5% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: -21.5pp
- Expected Return: -100.0%
- R-Score: -2.15
- Total Volume: $59,064
- 24h Volume: $32,013
- Open Interest: $47,003

- Expiration: February 13, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this market has exhibited no price movement. The price for a "YES" outcome has remained static at $0.05, representing a 5% probability, from the start of trading. With only two data points recorded, the overall trend is completely flat. There have been no significant price spikes, drops, or any volatility to analyze, indicating a stable and unchanging market expectation since its inception.

The lack of price movement is directly explained by the market's premise and the current context. The market questions whether the S&P 500 would surpass a threshold of approximately 7845. At the time of resolution on February 13, 2026, the index was trading near 6949, almost 900 points below the target. The market's price never rose because the underlying index was never close to the resolution value. The recent news of a significant selloff driven by AI fears, which saw the S&P 500 close at 6,832.76 the previous day, only served to reinforce the extremely low probability of the market resolving to "YES." The price remained at its floor because real-world events confirmed the market's initial assessment.

Despite the static price, the market saw a substantial volume of 25,494 contracts traded. This high volume, coupled with a lack of price change, suggests a strong and unwavering conviction among traders. Participants were consistently willing to trade at the 5% probability level, indicating a firm consensus that the market would resolve to "NO." In this context, the $0.05 price point has acted as the only effective trading level, functioning as both a floor and a ceiling. The chart's price action, or lack thereof, paints a clear picture of overwhelmingly bearish market sentiment that correctly anticipated the S&P 500 would fall significantly short of the 7845 target at the resolution time.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on the S&P 500 price at 12 PM EST on February 26, 2026. While the market's URL indicates an 'above/below' structure, the exact price threshold for a YES or NO resolution is not specified in the provided content. No specific trading deadlines or special settlement conditions beyond the asset and time are detailed.

## Market Discussion

As of February 13, 2026, discussions and debates surrounding the S&P 500 are primarily centered on its short-term volatility amid "AI disruption" worries and anticipation of upcoming inflation data, contrasted with a generally optimistic outlook for the broader year [[^]](https://cioninvestments.com/insights/q1-2026-outlook-sunshine-and-roses/). Many analysts foresee continued positive returns for the S&P 500 in 2026, driven by robust corporate earnings growth, ongoing artificial intelligence investments, and expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook). Conversely, concerns linger regarding stretched market valuations, the potential for persistent inflation above the Fed's target, and a notable probability of a U.S [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-2-12-goldman-sachs-predicts-12-s-and-p-500-rally-in-2026-five-key-themes-for-the-marathon-bull-market). and global recession in 2026 [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/stock-market-outlook-2026-what-investors-can-expect-in-the-first-6-months/).

## What is the Market-Implied Federal Funds Rate for 2025?

Implied Year-End 2025 Fed Funds Rate | 3.69% to 3.72% [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds) |
Net Implied Rate Cuts for 2025 | Zero [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds) |
Cumulative Easing (through early 2026) | 50-60 basis points (two 25 bps cuts) [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds) |

**The market expects stable rates in 2025, with easing thereafter**

The **market** expects stable rates in 2025, with easing thereafter. The **market**, as indicated by futures contracts, anticipates the Federal Funds Rate will stabilize between **3.69%** and **3.72%** by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds). This implies zero net rate cuts during the 2025 calendar year, reflecting a "higher for longer" policy stance for much of that period. However, the broader forward curve suggests a cumulative easing of 50-60 basis points extending into early 2026, indicating that while cuts are not expected in 2025, they are anticipated shortly thereafter [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds). The current Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) is approximately **3.64%** [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds), supporting the **market**'s view of policy stabilization before a more discernible easing cycle begins.

**Market** and Fed diverge on 2025 rate cut expectations. This **market**-implied trajectory for 2025 represents a notable shift from the Federal Reserve's initial 2024 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which had signaled three rate cuts for 2024 [[^]](https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds). While the Fed's subsequent projections from the June 2025 SEP update did signal two rate cuts for 2025, the **market** has since priced out even these, postponing the timeline for easing further into 2026 [[^]](https://deloitte.com). This divergence highlights the **market**'s proactive stance compared to the Fed's data-dependent approach, with markets incorporating risk premia against potential inflation reacceleration [[^]](https://cmegroup.com).

Longer-term outlook suggests eventual significant easing beyond 2025. Despite the immediate "higher for longer" outlook for 2025, both the **market** and the Federal Reserve's longer-term perspectives suggest substantial eventual easing. The December 2025 SEP indicated a median expectation for the Fed Funds rate to fall to the **3.00%**-**3.25%** range by the end of 2027 [[^]](https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot). Contrarian views, such as one suggesting substantially more than two cuts in 2025, exist but are founded on alternative economic forecasts, emphasizing the risk of unexpected economic deterioration accelerating the easing cycle [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor).

## What Drove S&P 500 Top-10 Concentration to New Highs in 2025?

Historical Peak Concentration (Q1 2024) | 24.1% [[^]](https://waypointwc.com) |
Realized Year-End 2025 Concentration | Over 40% [[^]](https://spglobal.com) |
Tech Sector Earnings Growth (2025) | 20% [[^]](https://spglobal.com) |

**The S&P 500 concentration dramatically increased by year-end 2025**

The S&P 500 concentration dramatically increased by year-end 2025. By this time, the top nine technology firms, including the 'Magnificent 7,' collectively exceeded **40%** of the index's weight [[^]](https://spglobal.com). This unprecedented surge dramatically surpassed the Q1 2024 historical peak of **24.1%** for the top 10 companies and defied early 2025 forecasts that had projected a slight moderation to **23.8%** (±**1.2%**) [[^]](https://waypointwc.com).

AI investment boom fueled this significant concentration increase. This was overwhelmingly driven by the sustained Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment boom, which fostered a substantial performance and earnings gap between mega-cap technology firms and the rest of the **market** [[^]](https://spglobal.com). For instance, tech sector earnings were forecasted to grow by **20%** in 2025, significantly outpacing the broader S&P 500's estimated **12%** growth. This provided fundamental justification for the increased capital inflows into these dominant tech stocks [[^]](https://spglobal.com).

## What Drove S&P 500 Earnings Growth to Record Highs in 2025?

S&P 500 2025 Earnings Growth | 13.3%-13.5% (CY 2025 vs. CY 2024) [[^]](https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight) |
S&P 500 2025 Net Profit Margins | 13.2%-13.4% [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1) |
S&P 500 2025 Revenue Growth | 7.4%-7.5% [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/emea/regional/en/investment-themes/2025-earnings-delivery-matters.pdf) |

**The final consensus forecast for S&P 500 aggregate year-over-year earnings growth for calendar year 2025 was 12.1% by December 2025 [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1)**

The final consensus forecast for S&P 500 aggregate year-over-year earnings growth for calendar year 2025 was **12.1%** by December 2025 [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1). This forecast represented a notable upward revision from earlier analyst projections of **7.4%** in May 2025 [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1). Actual reported aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500 ultimately reached between **13.3%** and **13.5%** year-over-year [[^]](https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight), significantly exceeding the final consensus forecast. The overall growth was broad-based, with the "S&P 493" segment also experiencing strong growth in the **9%** to **13%** range [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1).

Margin expansion was the primary driver of this earnings surge. The substantial earnings surge was primarily driven by significant margin expansion, with aggregate net profit margins for the S&P 500 reaching record highs of approximately **13.2%** to **13.4%** [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1). This expansion was complemented by healthy top-line growth, as aggregate S&P 500 revenues increased between **7.4%** and **7.5%** year-over-year [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/emea/regional/en/investment-themes/2025-earnings-delivery-matters.pdf). This exceptional performance significantly surpassed historical averages.

Multiple factors fueled both margin expansion and revenue growth. These robust drivers were underpinned by sustained capital investment in artificial intelligence, alongside resilient consumer and business spending [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/emea/regional/en/investment-themes/2025-earnings-delivery-matters.pdf). Furthermore, **market** optimism regarding potential deregulation and tax cuts contributed to the overall positive environment [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/emea/regional/en/investment-themes/2025-earnings-delivery-matters.pdf).

## How Do Market Signals Compare to Official 2025 Economic Projections?

Market-Implied Recession Probability | 55% (before Feb 2027) [[^]](https://cbo.gov) |
CBO 2025 Real GDP Growth | 1.4% [[^]](https://cbo.gov) |
CBO Projected 2025 Unemployment | 4.5% (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://cbo.gov) |

**Market signals currently indicate a significant recession probability, contrasting CBO's growth forecast**

**Market** signals currently indicate a significant recession **probability**, contrasting CBO's growth forecast. As of February 13, 2026, an inverted Treasury yield curve suggests a 55 percent **probability** of a U.S. recession occurring before February 2027. This **market** warning diverges from the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) official projection, which forecasts a 1.4 percent real GDP growth for the 2025 calendar year [[^]](https://cbo.gov). While positive, the CBO's outlook represents a notable deceleration from 2024's estimated growth, suggesting a "growth recession" where economic activity slows considerably without entering a technical recession.

The CBO's 2025 forecast reflects revisions, influenced by tariffs and immigration. The projected 1.4 percent growth for 2025 is a downward revision, primarily due to new tariffs expected to increase inflation and reduce output, alongside lower net immigration impacting the labor force [[^]](https://cbo.gov). However, the CBO anticipates that the 2025 Reconciliation Act, a fiscal stimulus package, will serve as a crucial counterbalance by boosting employment, household income, and business investment [[^]](https://cbo.gov). Other CBO projections for 2025 include the unemployment rate rising to 4.5 percent by the fourth quarter and inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, remaining elevated at 3.1 percent [[^]](https://cbo.gov).

Divergent forecasts have profound implications for policy and economic outcomes. If the **market**'s high recession **probability** proves accurate, the CBO's GDP and tax revenue projections would likely be overly optimistic, potentially necessitating more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, should the CBO's forecast hold, the yield curve inversion would have signaled a slowdown that narrowly avoided a technical recession, with fiscal stimulus playing a key role in the outcome [[^]](https://cbo.gov). The ultimate resolution of this divergence will depend on the complex interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy.

## How Will Post-Election Speculative Positioning Impact S&P 500 by 2026?

COT Report Frequency | Weekly (CFTC) [[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm) |
S&P 500 COT Data Start | March 1995 [Journal of Alternative Investments, 15(1), 84-93.">[^]](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233816694_A_History_of_the_CFTC's_Commitments_of_Traders_Reports) |
Presidential Cycle S&P 500 Performance | Third year strongest, election year weakest |

**The Commitments of Traders (COT) report tracks institutional sentiment in futures**

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report tracks institutional sentiment in futures. This report is a vital tool for assessing institutional sentiment in futures markets, categorizing open interest into commercial, non-commercial, and non-reportable trader segments [[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm). U.S. presidential elections historically introduce S&P 500 volatility, particularly in pre-election months which generally show more modest returns [Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 55(1), 1-33.">[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/political-climate-optimism-and-the-crosssection-of-stock-returns/F0B9C9E8A2E8B1C8A3B9A9F0D9F0E9E8), [[^]](https://www.lpl.com/news-and-media/research-insights/weekly-**market**-commentary/2020/08-31.html). A common pattern observed is a **market** rebound post-election, primarily due to the resolution of policy uncertainty [[^]](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/**market**-and-economic-insights/how-do-stocks-perform-in-an-election-year.html).

Post-election 90 days are crucial for **market** repricing. The 90-day period immediately following a U.S. presidential election, spanning November 2024 to February 2025, is critical for institutional repricing in S&P 500 e-mini futures. Shifts in net speculative positioning during this window serve as real-time indicators of the **market**'s emerging consensus on the new administration's policy direction [The Journal of Finance, 58(5), 1841-1872.">[^]](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6261.00596). For example, a decisive pro-business victory could trigger a significant 'risk-on' signal, resulting in a sharp increase in net long positions among large speculators. Conversely, policies perceived as restrictive might generate a 'risk-off' signal, prompting a reduction in net long exposure or even a tactical shift to net short positions [Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), 1-31.">[^]](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fut.10051).

Post-election consensus drives long-term **market** trends. This institutional consensus, established within the post-election 90-day window (November 2024 to February 2025), is projected to set the dominant **market** trend for the subsequent year, influencing the S&P 500's valuation by February 2026. A strong 'risk-on' signal would likely propel the S&P 500 higher, resulting in a bullish resolution for prediction markets, while a 'risk-off' signal would imply muted or negative performance. The ultimate direction depends entirely on the specific policy agenda of the victorious administration relative to **market** expectations [Erasmus University Rotterdam Working Paper.">[^]](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1620023).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** The prediction **market** for the 'S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?' has already reached its settlement date and settled on February 13, 2026, at 7:45 PM UTC.

**As the market has concluded and settled, there are no remaining catalysts or future events that could potentially alter its outcome or impact market probability.** All relevant information for this specific **market** has been accounted for and finalized.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** February 13, 2026
- **Expiration:** February 20, 2026
- **Closes:** February 13, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The prediction **market** for the 'S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?' has already reached its settlement date and settled on February 13, 2026, at 7:45 PM UTC.
- As the **market** has concluded and settled, there are no remaining catalysts or future events that could potentially alter its outcome or impact **market** **probability**.
- All relevant information for this specific **market** has been accounted for and finalized.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 50 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 50 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXINXU-26FEB13H1400-T7844.9999: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXINXU-26FEB13H1400-T7839.9999: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXINXU-26FEB13H1400-T7834.9999: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXINXU-26FEB13H1400-T7829.9999: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXINXU-26FEB13H1400-T7824.9999: NO (Feb 13, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

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