# Alaska Senate Election Winner

Updated: August 18, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Alaska Midterm, Senate midterms, US Election, Midterms, Elections

HTML: /markets/politics/alaska-midterm/alaska-senate-election-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Mary Peltola to win the Alaska Senate Election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Mary Peltola appears favored due to significant campaign fundraising and spending advantage.** - Dan Sullivan likely remains competitive given Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 57c, the **market** price exceeds the **50.9%** **model** estimate by 6.1 points, awaiting primary results and new polling.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mary Peltola | 57.0% | 50.9% | Mary Peltola benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and demonstrated cross-party appeal in prior elections. |
| Dan Sullivan | 42.0% | 48.8% | Dan Sullivan benefits from incumbency, strong Republican support in a conservative state, and an established campaign. |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | 0.1% | Ann Diener appears to have no significant public profile or active campaign to date. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mary Peltola | 57.0% | 50.9% |
| Dan Sullivan | 42.0% | 48.8% |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Richard Grayson | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dustin Darden | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Candidate A | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

To: Trading Desk
From: Quant Analysis
Re: Market Note - Alaska Senate Election Winner (will-dan-sullivan-win-the-alaska-senate-race-in-2026)

This contract has traded in a sideways pattern since its inception, holding a range between 48.5% and 57.5%. The market opened with a 56.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and currently sits at 57.0%. The most notable price movement is a recent increase to the top of its range, coinciding with the Alaska primary election on August 18. This price appreciation suggests the market is pricing in a higher probability of the incumbent's success following the primary event. The boundaries of the trading range, 48.5% and 57.5%, have acted as the effective support and resistance levels for this contract.

The most critical technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded throughout its history, the price action is not a reflection of participant activity or conviction. The price changes are attributable to the market's automated pricing mechanism, not to any capital being deployed. The price levels, including the current 57.0% probability, should be seen as indicative quotes rather than a consensus view formed by active trading.

The lack of volume indicates this market is dormant and illiquid. While the price implies a slight positive sentiment for the "YES" outcome, this reading is superficial. Without any trades to validate the price levels, the chart offers no meaningful insight into collective market expectation. The contract simply reflects its initial pricing with minor automated adjustments.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate confirmed as the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, and 'No' for all other candidates. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Resolution relies on all three sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the same candidate; otherwise, official certification determines the winner. If the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.

## Market Discussion

The market largely discusses the competitive dynamic between Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate seat, with traders currently favoring Peltola at 57%. Arguments for Peltola's victory center on her "S-tier appeal," strong name recognition, moderate stance, and potential advantages in ranked-choice voting, supported by recent polling showing a narrow lead. Despite some dissenting opinions, the market's consensus suggests a strong belief in Peltola's chances, citing her momentum from endorsements and grassroots efforts.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ann Diener | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $36,064.21 | $0 |
| Candidate A | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate B | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate C | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate D | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate E | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate F | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate G | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate H | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate I | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate J | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate K | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate L | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate M | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate N | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate O | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate P | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate R | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate S | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate T | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate U | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate V | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Candidate W | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Dan Sullivan | 42% | 43% | 42% | $120,411.79 | $0 |
| Dustin Darden | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $23,336.35 | $0 |
| Mary Peltola | 56% | 58% | 57% | $204,100.85 | $0 |
| Richard Grayson | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $23,919.14 | $0 |

## What are the key campaign events and potential catalysts, such as debates or major endorsements, scheduled between the August primary and the November 3, 2026 general election?

Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_elections,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primaries_in_Alaska,_2026) |
General Election Date | November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_State_Senate_elections,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_elections,_2026) |
Campaign Finance Report Due | October 15, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/dates-and-deadlines/2026-reporting-dates/prior-notices-2026/election-report-notice-alaska/) |

**The 2026 U.S**

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska features a multi-stage election process. The election includes a nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026, from which the top four vote-getters will advance to the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_elections,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primaries_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.timesunion.com/news/politics/article/the-other-dan-sullivan-in-alaska-s-us-senate-22296821.php)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_State_Senate_elections,_2026). For the general election, Alaska will employ ranked-choice voting, and voters will also consider a ballot measure proposing the repeal of this system [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/).

A single campaign finance report filing is scheduled between the primary and general elections. The primary campaign event scheduled for this period is the filing of the October Quarterly campaign finance report by October 15, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/dates-and-deadlines/2026-reporting-dates/prior-notices-2026/election-report-notice-alaska/). This report will detail financial activity conducted from July 30 to September 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/dates-and-deadlines/2026-reporting-dates/prior-notices-2026/election-report-notice-alaska/). The provided research does not specify any scheduled debates or additional major endorsements occurring between the August 18, 2026 primary and the November 3, 2026 general election.

## How do the final vote totals from the August 18, 2026 primary inform the strategic landscape and relative strengths of the four candidates advancing to the general election?

Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [[^]](https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/07/30/heres-when-to-expect-results-in-alaskas-2026-statewide-primary-election/) |
General Election Date | November 3 [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska) |
Primary System | Top-four primary [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-alaska-midterm-primaries)[[^]](https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2026/06/02/alaska-primary-ballot-set-17-governor-candidates-competitive-us-senate-race-legislature-crossroads/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026_(August_18_top-four_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primaries_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska) |

**Alaska's primary results are delayed, preventing immediate strategic analysis**

Alaska's primary results are delayed, preventing immediate strategic analysis. As of August 18, 2026, the official vote totals for the state's primary election have not been tabulated or released. This delay makes it impossible to assess the strategic landscape or relative strengths of the candidates based on final vote counts [[^]](https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/07/30/heres-when-to-expect-results-in-alaskas-2026-statewide-primary-election/). While preliminary results were expected later on August 18, the final unofficial tally is not anticipated until August 28, 2026 [[^]](https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/07/30/heres-when-to-expect-results-in-alaskas-2026-statewide-primary-election/).

Alaska's unique election system advances four candidates to ranked-choice general. The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election employs a top-four primary system, which means the four highest-polling candidates will advance to the November 3 general election [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-alaska-midterm-primaries)[[^]](https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2026/06/02/alaska-primary-ballot-set-17-governor-candidates-competitive-us-senate-race-legislature-crossroads/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026_(August_18_top-four_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primaries_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska). The general election will then utilize ranked-choice voting, where a candidate must secure a simple majority (**50%** + 1) through potential elimination and reallocation rounds to win [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska). Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Democratic U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are identified as the primary notable candidates within a crowded field of 16 participants [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-alaska-midterm-primaries).

## How do the campaign fundraising totals and spending strategies of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Mary Peltola Raised | $18.5 million (as of July 29, 2026) [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) |
Dan Sullivan Raised | $11.7 million (as of July 29, 2026) [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) |
Dan Sullivan Cash-on-Hand | $7.3 million (as of July 29, 2026) [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) |

**Peltola significantly outraised and outspent Sullivan in the 2026 U.S**

Peltola significantly outraised and outspent Sullivan in the 2026 U.S. Senate race. As of July 29, 2026, former Democratic U.S. Representative Mary Peltola has substantially outpaced incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan in fundraising for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, raising approximately **$18.5** million compared to Sullivan's **$11.7** million [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska). Peltola also outspent Sullivan, dedicating about **$13.9** million to her campaign, while Sullivan spent approximately **$5.2** million [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska). Despite being outraised and outspent, Sullivan maintains a larger cash-on-hand reserve of approximately **$7.3** million, exceeding Peltola's **$4.6** million [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska). Sullivan and Peltola are the primary contenders in the upcoming election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026_(August_18_top-four_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/30/alaska-supreme-court-rules-that-dan-sullivan-must-appear-on-the-states-u-s-senate-ballot-this-year/)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/gop-sen-dan-sullivan-draws-an-unusual-opponent-in-alaskas-primary-and-hes-not-happy-about-it/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mary_Peltola).

Candidates employ contrasting strategies for campaign funding and resource allocation. Peltola's campaign heavily relies on small-dollar, grassroots donations, with most contributions averaging **$50** or less, supported by a robust statewide volunteer network [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://nativenewsonline.net/currents/peltola-campaign-claims-growing-momentum-as-alaska-senate-race-reaches-100-day-mark/). In contrast, Sullivan's strategy focuses on a consistent fundraising pace to accumulate a substantial cash reserve, which his campaign intends to deploy for sustained effectiveness throughout the general election [[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-07-16/peltola-vastly-outraises-sullivan-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race)[[^]](https://nativenewsonline.net/currents/peltola-campaign-claims-growing-momentum-as-alaska-senate-race-reaches-100-day-mark/).

## What do historical turnout patterns and current voter registration data suggest about the likely composition of the November 2026 electorate in Alaska?

Independent Voter Registration | 63.4% (as of August 2026) [[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ak) |
Republican Voter Registration | 23.2% (as of August 2026) [[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ak) |
Historical Midterm Turnout | 50.2% to 54.8% (2002-2022) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout) |

**The 2026 Alaska electorate will likely be largely Independent**

The 2026 Alaska electorate will likely be largely Independent. The November 2026 Alaska electorate is projected to be primarily composed of Independent voters, based on current voter registration data from August 2026. Independents represent the largest voting bloc, accounting for **63.4%** of registered voters. Republicans constitute **23.2%** and Democrats comprise **11.7%** of registered voters, solidifying the Independent majority for the upcoming election [[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ak).

Alaska's midterm voter turnout is historically moderate. Historically, midterm voter turnout in Alaska typically ranges from **50%** to **56%** of eligible voters [[^]](https://www.sightline.org/2024/09/03/mirroring-the-nation-voter-turnout-dropped-in-alaskas-2022-election/)[[^]](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/c3104f89-b23e-40b7-a5d0-7b96c73b7e62/downloads/d7b1df0c-1c03-4503-814a-9776a3c2a09d/Alaska_s%20Election%20Model.pdf?ver=1760657556857). More specifically, midterm election turnout between 2002 and 2022 varied from **50.2%** to **54.8%** of eligible voters [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout). While these rates are relatively high compared to national midterm averages, they are notably lower than the turnout observed during presidential election years [[^]](https://www.sightline.org/2024/09/03/mirroring-the-nation-voter-turnout-dropped-in-alaskas-2022-election/)[[^]](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/c3104f89-b23e-40b7-a5d0-7b96c73b7e62/downloads/d7b1df0c-1c03-4503-814a-9776a3c2a09d/Alaska_s%20Election%20Model.pdf?ver=1760657556857)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout).

## What does public polling conducted after the August 18 primary indicate about voters' second-choice preferences under Alaska's ranked-choice system?

Post-primary second-choice polling data | Not available [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/) |
Primary election date | August 18, 2026 (non-ranked) [[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/alaska/primary/)[[^]](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/)[[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-08-12/what-to-know-about-tuesdays-primary-election) |
General election system | Ranked-choice voting (top four candidates) [[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/alaska/primary/)[[^]](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/)[[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-08-12/what-to-know-about-tuesdays-primary-election) |

**Currently, no public polling data exists for post-primary second-choice preferences**

Currently, no public polling data exists for post-primary second-choice preferences. There is currently no public polling data available from after the August 18, 2026, primary specifically detailing voter second-choice preferences for the general election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/). In Alaska's election system, these second-choice preferences are only officially revealed during the ranked-choice tabulation process in the general election, which is activated if no candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/).

Alaska's primary election is not ranked and selects four finalists. Alaska's primary election, held on August 18, 2026, is a non-ranked system where voters cast a single vote for their preferred candidate [[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/alaska/primary/)[[^]](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/)[[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-08-12/what-to-know-about-tuesdays-primary-election). The top four vote-getters from this primary then advance to the general election, which employs ranked-choice voting (RCV) [[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/alaska/primary/)[[^]](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/)[[^]](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-08-12/what-to-know-about-tuesdays-primary-election). Voters do not rank candidates in the primary; RCV is exclusively used in the general election to determine the winner among the four finalists [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/23/alaskas-federal-elections-are-using-ranked-choice-voting-rcv-for-the-third-consecutive-cycle/).

Pre-primary polling suggested second-choice transfers could influence outcomes. Prior to the August 18, 2026, primary, polling indicated that in a hypothetical four-candidate general election scenario, minor-party and independent candidates were anticipated to influence the outcome through RCV second-choice transfers, although some ballots were predicted to exhaust [[^]](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/8/17/as-alaskas-affordability-crisis-deepens-peltola-leads-in-senate-race).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 Alaska U.S.** Senate election includes a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, 2026, leading to a general election on November 3, 2026, which will utilize ranked-choice voting [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf). Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are the major candidates among others, including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (no relation) [[^]](https://alaskabeacon.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-alaska-congress-u-s-senate/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska)[[^]](https://www.isidewith.com/elections/2026/states/alaska/us-senate). As of mid-August 2026, prediction markets indicate a close general election, with implied probabilities often showing Peltola and Sullivan in a tight, near-toss-up contest [[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/alaska-senate-race-2026-odds)[[^]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/alaska-senate-election-winner-odds-2026-11-03)[[^]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race-winner-by-party/). Decision Desk HQ, as of August 17, 2026, forecasts Democrats with a **54%** **probability** to win, against **46%** for Republicans [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/alaska-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

**Key catalysts for prediction market pricing include the outcome of the top-four primary, the impact of ranked-choice voting on final results, and the influence of 'spoiler' or same-name candidates, such as Daniel J.** Sullivan Jr., appearing on the general election ballot [[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/alaska-senate-race-2026-odds)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/alaska-senate-primary-2026-super-pac-odds)[[^]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race-winner-by-party/). Mary Peltola is a heavy favorite to advance through the primary, even as the general election race remains competitive [[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/alaska-senate-race-2026-odds)[[^]](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/alaska-senate-election-winner-odds-2026-11-03)[[^]](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race-winner-by-party/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** November 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 Alaska U.S.
- Senate election includes a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, 2026, leading to a general election on November 3, 2026, which will utilize ranked-choice voting [^] [^] [^] .
- Republican incumbent Senator Dan S.
- Sullivan and Democratic former U.S.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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