# Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Updated: August 25, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: BTC, Trump

HTML: /markets/politics/btc/will-the-treasury-purchase-bitcoin/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect the Treasury will not purchase Bitcoin before January 1, 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.** This aligns with Executive Order 14233, which explicitly prohibits the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve from making open **market** purchases, a stance reinforced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

## Key Claims (August 2026)

**- - Treasury will likely not purchase Bitcoin; Executive Order 14233 limits the reserve to forfeited assets.** - New legislation authorizing purchases, such as the BITCOIN Act of 2025, has not been enacted.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **2.1%** vs 6c **market** suggests a 16.7x payout, as Executive Order 14233 prohibits open **market** purchases.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 2.1% | Executive Order 14233 prohibits purchases, reinforced by Secretary Bessent; no relevant legislation is enacted. |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.0% | 3.1% | Executive Order 14233 prohibits purchases, reinforced by Secretary Bessent; no relevant legislation is enacted. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.0% | 3.1% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This contract priced a Treasury Bitcoin purchase as a near-zero probability event until late August 2026. The market was static at a 1.0% baseline before a sharp repricing between August 19 and August 25. During this period, the implied probability surged 6x, from 1.0% to a contract high of 6.0%. The initial jump from 1.0% to 5.0% occurred on zero volume, suggesting a large order moved a thin book or a market maker repriced based on new information. The subsequent move to 6.0% was backed by 15 contracts, a modest but notable increase in activity for this market.

The price action directly correlates with news regarding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established under Executive Order 14233 in March 2025. While current Treasury policy prohibits direct BTC acquisition, the price move indicates the market is beginning to weigh the possibility that the reserve's existence could eventually lead to purchases. Total traded volume is extremely low at 77 contracts, showing a niche market with shallow liquidity. The 6.0% level has become immediate resistance, while the former 1.0% floor is now distant support.

Overall market sentiment remains skeptical, with the contract consistently pricing the event as a long shot. However, the recent shift from 1.0% to 6.0% shows a clear reaction to external catalysts. The market now prices a small but non-trivial chance of a policy change before the January 2028 resolution date. Low conviction, evidenced by the thin volume, suggests the price will remain highly sensitive to any future policy signals.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the U.S. Treasury publicly announces a completed Bitcoin purchase. If no such announcement occurs by the specified deadline, the market resolves NO. Contracts are offered with resolution deadlines set for either before January 1, 2027, or before January 1, 2028.

## Market Discussion

Despite the official launch of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025, the U.S. government had not purchased Bitcoin as of August 25, 2026, with existing holdings sourced exclusively from asset seizures [[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/features/us-bitcoin-reserve-no-plan-stack-sats)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://research.glassnode.com/gemini-glassnode-bitcoin-report-q2/). U.S.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | 6% | 6% | $77.37 | $77.37 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 11% | 14% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What legislative pathways, such as the BITCOIN Act of 2025, could authorize the U.S. Treasury to purchase Bitcoin before 2028?

Primary Legislative Pathway | BITCOIN Act of 2025 (H.R. 2032) [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr2032/BILLS-119hr2032ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr2032/text)[[^]](https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-codify-trumps-revolutionary-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-secure-americas-financial-future/)[[^]](https://app.legiplex.com/us/legislature/2025/us119/bills/hb2032)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/senator-cynthia-lummis-new-bitcoin-act-one-million-btc) |
Proposed Bitcoin Purchase | 1 million Bitcoins over 5 years (200,000 annually) [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr2032/BILLS-119hr2032ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr2032/text)[[^]](https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-codify-trumps-revolutionary-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-secure-americas-financial-future/)[[^]](https://app.legiplex.com/us/legislature/2025/us119/bills/hb2032)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/senator-cynthia-lummis-new-bitcoin-act-one-million-btc) |
Current US Government Bitcoin Holdings | Estimated 328,000 Bitcoins [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/2026%20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf) |

**The primary legislative pathway for the U.S**

The primary legislative pathway for the U.S. Treasury to purchase Bitcoin before 2028 is the BITCOIN Act of 2025 (H.R. 2032), introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis and Representative Nick Begich [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr2032/BILLS-119hr2032ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr2032/text)[[^]](https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-codify-trumps-revolutionary-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-secure-americas-financial-future/)[[^]](https://app.legiplex.com/us/legislature/2025/us119/bills/hb2032). This bill proposes a mandated Bitcoin Purchase Program designed to acquire 1 million Bitcoins over five years, with annual purchases of 200,000 Bitcoins, using repurposed Federal Reserve earnings and Treasury assets [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr2032/BILLS-119hr2032ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr2032/text)[[^]](https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-codify-trumps-revolutionary-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-secure-americas-financial-future/)[[^]](https://app.legiplex.com/us/legislature/2025/us119/bills/hb2032)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/senator-cynthia-lummis-new-bitcoin-act-one-million-btc). As of mid-2026, the BITCOIN Act remains a significant legislative proposal, with some analysts suggesting the possibility of Treasury purchases commencing as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf).

Executive order establishes a reserve but mandates no new purchases. Separately, an executive order in March 2025 established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially funded by assets already seized or forfeited by the government [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-administration-views-bitcoin-reserve-digital-fort-knox-senior-officials-2025-03-07/). While this order authorizes Treasury and Commerce officials to develop budget-neutral acquisition strategies, it does not mandate **market** purchases of Bitcoin [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-administration-views-bitcoin-reserve-digital-fort-knox-senior-officials-2025-03-07/). The U.S. government currently holds an estimated 328,000 Bitcoins, predominantly classified as seized or custodial assets rather than those acquired through a strategic Treasury-led buying program [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf). Despite these efforts, prediction markets exhibit high skepticism regarding a U.S. Treasury Bitcoin purchase occurring before 2028, with **market** probabilities for such an event often quoted at very low levels as of August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtreasbuybtc/will-the-treasury-announce-a-completed-bitcoin-purchase/kxtreasbuybtc-26aug)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-de/predictions/event/KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtreasbuycrypto-26aug).

## What specific language in Executive Order 14233 or statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent restricts the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve from making market purchases?

Executive Order on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve | EO 14233, signed March 6, 2025 [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14233-establishment-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows) |
Capitalization Method | Exclusively forfeited Bitcoin [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14233-establishment-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows) |
Open Market Purchases | Not authorized; government will not purchase Bitcoin on the open market [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14233-establishment-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/15/us-government-exploring-opportunities-to-amass-more-bitcoin-for-the-btc-strategic-reserve-says-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent/) |

**Executive Order 14233 strictly limits Strategic Bitcoin Reserve capitalization to forfeited assets**

Executive Order 14233 strictly limits Strategic Bitcoin Reserve capitalization to forfeited assets. Signed on March 6, 2025, this order dictates that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve can only be capitalized using Bitcoin that has been finally forfeited through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings or in satisfaction of civil money penalties [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14233-establishment-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows). The Executive Order explicitly does not grant the Treasury the authority to purchase Bitcoin from open markets, stating that any such actions would necessitate separate authorizing legislation, which has not been enacted as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14233-establishment-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows).

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirms the reserve's reliance on confiscated assets. Secretary Bessent has consistently confirmed the government's position that there will be no open **market** purchases of Bitcoin for the reserve, which will instead rely solely on confiscated assets [[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/15/us-government-exploring-opportunities-to-amass-more-bitcoin-for-the-btc-strategic-reserve-says-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent/). Despite explorations into 'budget-neutral' strategies to potentially expand holdings, legislative initiatives such as the BITCOIN Act, designed to permit Treasury Bitcoin purchases, had not passed the Senate by August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/15/us-government-exploring-opportunities-to-amass-more-bitcoin-for-the-btc-strategic-reserve-says-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent/)[[^]](https://blockonomi.com/us-treasury-plans-to-explore-budget-neutral-bitcoin-purchases-for-strategic-reserve/)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/scott-bessent-says-bitcoin-moving-150132601.html)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows). This legislative inaction maintains the current restriction of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to forfeited assets [[^]](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/15/us-government-exploring-opportunities-to-amass-more-bitcoin-for-the-btc-strategic-reserve-says-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent/)[[^]](https://blockonomi.com/us-treasury-plans-to-explore-budget-neutral-bitcoin-purchases-for-strategic-reserve/)[[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/scott-bessent-says-bitcoin-moving-150132601.html)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows).

## How does the U.S. strategy of funding its Bitcoin reserve via asset forfeiture compare to El Salvador's policy of direct market purchases?

US reserve funding source | Criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-signs-executive-order-for-us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html)[[^]](https://coingeek.com/us-treasury-confirms-bitcoin-reserve-will-rely-on-seizures/)[[^]](https://www.lathropgpm.com/insights/white-house-establishes-a-u-s-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-digital-asset-stockpile-what-it-is-and-what-it-implies/) |
El Salvador daily Bitcoin purchase | Approximately one Bitcoin per day [[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/el-salvador-bitcoin-reserve-tops-7600-btc/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/el-salvador-imf-bitcoin-accumulation-strategic-reserve)[[^]](https://dailycoin.com/el-salvador-bets-big-bitcoin-buying-despite-imf-ban/)[[^]](https://technext24.com/news/el-salvador-to-continue-buying-bitcoin-against-imfs-request-in-1-4-billion-fund-plan/) |
US Treasury direct purchase probability by Jan 1, 2028 | Approximately 12% [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtreasbuybtc/will-the-treasury-announce-a-completed-bitcoin-purchase/kxtreasbuybtc-26aug)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtreasbuycrypto-26aug) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. funds its Bitcoin reserve through forfeiture, not taxpayer money. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established in March 2025, relies exclusively on assets obtained through criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings or civil money penalties, explicitly avoiding the use of taxpayer funds for **market** purchases [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-signs-executive-order-for-us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html)[[^]](https://coingeek.com/us-treasury-confirms-bitcoin-reserve-will-rely-on-seizures/)[[^]](https://www.lathropgpm.com/insights/white-house-establishes-a-u-s-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-digital-asset-stockpile-what-it-is-and-what-it-implies/). **Market** analysts and policy observers note that the U.S. approach to its existing approximately 328,000 Bitcoin holdings has historically been custodial or seizure-based [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf). While the proposed strategy could include budget-neutral direct purchases if approved by legislation like the BITCOIN Act, prediction markets indicate a very low **probability**, approximately **12%** on Kalshi for a Treasury purchase before January 1, 2028, that the U.S. Treasury will transition to direct **market** purchases for its reserve [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/crypto-markets-face-volatility-as-rate-cuts-deglobalization-btc-reserve-plans-weigh)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtreasbuybtc/will-the-treasury-announce-a-completed-bitcoin-purchase/kxtreasbuybtc-26aug)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtreasbuycrypto-26aug).

El Salvador actively accumulates Bitcoin via direct **market** purchases daily. In contrast to the U.S. approach, El Salvador employs an active accumulation strategy where the government directly purchases Bitcoin from the **market** as a treasury reserve asset [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf)[[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/vol-commentary-a-changed-political-view/). This policy, often described as dollar-cost averaging, involves the government consistently acquiring approximately one Bitcoin per day, functioning as a price-insensitive sovereign buyer [[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/el-salvador-bitcoin-reserve-tops-7600-btc/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/el-salvador-imf-bitcoin-accumulation-strategic-reserve)[[^]](https://dailycoin.com/el-salvador-bets-big-bitcoin-buying-despite-imf-ban/)[[^]](https://technext24.com/news/el-salvador-to-continue-buying-bitcoin-against-imfs-request-in-1-4-billion-fund-plan/). El Salvador maintains this direct **market** purchase strategy despite formal requests from the IMF to discontinue these voluntary accumulations [[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/el-salvador-bitcoin-reserve-tops-7600-btc/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/el-salvador-imf-bitcoin-accumulation-strategic-reserve)[[^]](https://dailycoin.com/el-salvador-bets-big-bitcoin-buying-despite-imf-ban/)[[^]](https://technext24.com/news/el-salvador-to-continue-buying-bitcoin-against-imfs-request-in-1-4-billion-fund-plan/).

## What public on-chain data and official government disclosures are available to track inflows into the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

SBR Establishment Date | March 6, 2025 [[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/amberdata-q1-2025-volatility-regulations-and-institutional-moves) |
Current Funding Source | Criminal/civil asset forfeiture (as of August 25, 2026) [[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows) |
Estimated US Bitcoin Holdings | Approximately 328,000 BTC (as of July 2026) [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026) |

**No public data exists to track U.S**

No public data exists to track U.S. Bitcoin Reserve inflows. As of August 2026, there are no public on-chain data or official government disclosures specifically for tracking inflows into the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) [[^]](https://www.aol.com/finance/white-house-official-reveals-details-223243512.html)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/scott-bessent-says-us-wont-buy-more-bitcoin/). The SBR was established by executive order on March 6, 2025, mandating that Bitcoin seized in federal criminal investigations be held long-term rather than liquidated [[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/amberdata-q1-2025-volatility-regulations-and-institutional-moves)[[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-q1-2025-historic-highs-volatility-and-institutional-moves)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/). As of August 25, 2026, the SBR is exclusively capitalized with Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings [[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/scott-bessent-says-us-wont-buy-more-bitcoin/).

Legislation is needed for taxpayer-funded Bitcoin reserve purchases. Official policy prohibits taxpayer-funded purchases of Bitcoin for the reserve without new legislation, a stance publicly stated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/scott-bessent-says-us-wont-buy-more-bitcoin/). While legislative proposals such as the BITCOIN Act and the American Reserve Modernization Act have been introduced to authorize Treasury Bitcoin purchases, none have been enacted into law as of August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/954/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8957/text)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows). Estimates of the SBR's total holdings vary significantly, but the U.S. is estimated to hold approximately 328,000 Bitcoin as of July 2026, primarily consisting of seized assets [[^]](https://www.aol.com/finance/white-house-official-reveals-details-223243512.html)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/scott-bessent-says-us-wont-buy-more-bitcoin/)[[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf). Projections suggest that Treasury buying could occur as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf).

## What potential economic or national security events could compel the Trump administration to authorize Bitcoin purchases outside of new legislation?

Executive Order 14233 date | March 6, 2025 [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/) |
Treasury Secretary's statement date | August 25, 2026 [[^]](https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/trump-keeps-door-open-to-new-u-s-bitcoin-purchases-as-reserve-strategy-takes-shape/)[[^]](https://capwolf.com/trump-says-us-bitcoin-purchases-still-under-review/)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin) |
Primary Bitcoin acquisition method | Federal forfeiture proceedings [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/) |

**Economic and national security events could compel the administration to buy Bitcoin**

Economic and national security events could compel the administration to buy Bitcoin. Potential events, such as threats to the dollar's global dominance or major financial stability crises, could pressure the Trump administration to authorize Bitcoin purchases [[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirnbaum/2025/03/12/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-will-the-us-government-buy-bitcoin/)[[^]](https://www.lathamreg.com/2025/03/president-trump-issues-executive-order-establishing-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/). Internationally, sovereign states increasingly perceive Bitcoin as a digital complement to gold. This perspective is driven by concerns over the weaponization of dollar-based assets, exemplified by the 2022 freezing of Russian reserves, which prompts a desire for diversification into non-custodial assets [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf).

Current policy primarily limits government Bitcoin acquisition to forfeiture. President Trump's Executive Order 14233, issued on March 6, 2025, established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, primarily limiting government Bitcoin accumulation to assets obtained through federal forfeiture proceedings [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-signs-order-establish-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-white-house-crypto-czar-2025-03-07/). The administration's current policy also dictates that any accumulation strategy must not impose incremental costs on taxpayers, which significantly hinders open-**market** purchases without specific legislative approval [[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirnbaum/2025/03/12/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-will-the-us-government-buy-bitcoin/)[[^]](https://www.lathamreg.com/2025/03/president-trump-issues-executive-order-establishing-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/). As of August 25, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Treasury would not purchase additional Bitcoin on the open **market** and lacks the authority to direct private banks to do so, thus maintaining forfeiture-based growth as the prevailing policy [[^]](https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/trump-keeps-door-open-to-new-u-s-bitcoin-purchases-as-reserve-strategy-takes-shape/)[[^]](https://capwolf.com/trump-says-us-bitcoin-purchases-still-under-review/)[[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-bessent-wont-bail-out-bitcoin)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin). While EO 14233 permitted the exploration of budget-neutral acquisition strategies, such as converting other federal assets, no such plan has been implemented. This indicates that substantial non-forfeiture purchases would likely necessitate new legislative authorization, like the proposed BITCOIN Act of 2025 [[^]](https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/trump-keeps-door-open-to-new-u-s-bitcoin-purchases-as-reserve-strategy-takes-shape/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirnbaum/2025/03/12/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-will-the-us-government-buy-bitcoin/)[[^]](https://www.lathamreg.com/2025/03/president-trump-issues-executive-order-establishing-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**As of August 25, 2026, the U.S.** Treasury does not purchase Bitcoin for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR); the reserve is limited to Bitcoin acquired through criminal and civil forfeiture and is subject to a no-sell policy established by EO 14233 [[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated that the U.S. government will not engage in direct **market** purchases of Bitcoin, prioritizing "budget-neutral" management via confiscated assets instead [[^]](https://chaingridnews.com/2026/08/22/bitcoin-reserve-unlikely-to-buy-btc-under-trump-bitget-ceo/)[[^]](https://decrypt.co/335246/treasury-secretary-bessent-u-s-not-purchasing-bitcoin). The U.S. government holds approximately 328,000 BTC, primarily consisting of seized assets rather than purchased reserves, as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf).

**Legislative attempts to mandate active federal Bitcoin purchases, such as Senator Cynthia Lummis's BITCOIN Act (S.954), have not been enacted as of August 2026, and such measures face significant political and legal hurdles [[^]](https://chaingridnews.com/2026/08/22/bitcoin-reserve-unlikely-to-buy-btc-under-trump-bitget-ceo/)[[^]](https://www.tftc.io/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-eo-14233-what-it-allows).** However, the proposed BITCOIN Act is currently under consideration, with industry analysis suggesting it could potentially lead to Treasury purchases as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/mid-year-outlook-2026)[[^]](https://docs.cfbenchmarks.com/**2026%**20Mid-Year%20Market%20Outlook-compressed.pdf). Following the election of a crypto-friendly administration, a White House working group has been launched to establish a comprehensive crypto framework, though **market** participants note that establishing a formal strategic reserve will likely take significant time [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/that-first-trump-2-0-friday-feeling).

**Prediction markets currently indicate very low confidence, typically [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtreasbuybtc/will-the-treasury-announce-a-completed-bitcoin-purchase/kxtreasbuybtc-26aug)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG)[[^]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxbtcreserve-27).** Institutional sentiment in the CME-regulated options **market** shows a strong bullish bias, with 30-day topside skew reaching levels not seen since the November 2025 election, indicating that traders are positioning for further upside exposure [[^]](https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/that-first-trump-2-0-friday-feeling).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2027
- **Closes:** January 01, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- As of August 25, 2026, the U.S.
- Treasury does not purchase Bitcoin for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR); the reserve is limited to Bitcoin acquired through criminal and civil forfeiture and is subject to a no-sell policy established by EO 14233 [^] [^] .
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated that the U.S.
- Government will not engage in direct **market** purchases of Bitcoin, prioritizing "budget-neutral" management via confiscated assets instead [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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