# Iowa Senate Election Winner

Updated: August 18, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Iowa Midterm, Senate midterms, Midterms, Elections, US Election, Josh Turek, Ashley Hinson

HTML: /markets/politics/iowa-midterm/iowa-senate-election-winner/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Ashley Hinson (R) to win the Iowa Senate Election.** There is no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Republicans likely win; Ashley Hinson leads fundraising as of August 2026.** - Hinson also holds a 3-point lead in an August 2026 Emerson College poll.
- The open seat is rated "Lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **64.2%** **probability** vs 60c **market**, implying a 1.7x payout on strong GOP fundraising and PAC support.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% | Republican Ashley Hinson has a substantial fundraising lead and an August 2026 poll shows her ahead. |
| Josh Turek (D) | 39.0% | 35.7% | The race for an open seat is unpredictable, and Josh Turek's campaign targets moderate voters. |
| Person A | 0.0% | 0.0% | Outside deterministic model scope. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% |
| Josh Turek (D) | 39.0% | 35.7% |
| Person A | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person B | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person C | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person D | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person E | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person F | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person G | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person H | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person I | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Person J | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This contract's price has moved within a narrow 4-point band, drifting from a starting probability of 55.5% to a recent high of 59.5%. The overall trend is a slow upward grind within a sideways channel. The current price of 59.5% establishes the top of the trading range and acts as a resistance level, while the 55.5% low marks initial support. The sample data shows a steady, incremental rise over the period tracked.

The defining characteristic of this market is a total lack of traded volume. With zero contracts exchanged, the price movements do not reflect actual trader sentiment, conviction, or capital allocation. The shifts in probability are not the result of organic buying or selling pressure. Instead, they likely represent automated adjustments to the market's baseline odds or indicative quotes from a market maker.

Given the zero-volume environment, the price increases cannot be credibly linked to any external news or developments regarding the race between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson. Without trading activity, the chart does not provide any information about how market participants are reacting to campaign events or polling. The price action is effectively theoretical and does not represent a consensus view based on wagers.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if a specified candidate wins the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs, and NO otherwise. Resolution primarily occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; failing that, official certification determines the outcome. Independent candidates are not covered by the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options, and the election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

## Market Discussion

Despite the market favoring Ashley Hinson (R) at 60%, the limited trader discussion indicates some skepticism, with one user suggesting the race is "50-50." Arguments against Hinson's strong lead include criticism of her campaign style. While the market context notes Iowa's Republican lean and Hinson's establishment support, the comments imply a belief that the contest could be tighter than current odds reflect.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person A | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person B | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person C | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person D | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person E | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person F | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person G | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person H | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person I | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person J | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Josh Turek (D) | 40% | 41% | 39% | $102,234.31 | $0 |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 59% | 60% | 60% | $103,810.61 | $0 |

## How do Ashley Hinson's and Josh Turek's stated policy positions and voting records on agriculture and trade compare?

Hinson's Trade Position | Supports maintaining current trade tariffs [[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/2026/02/24/iowa-farmers-call-out-chaotic-tariffs-that-ashley-hinson-continues-to-support-in-dc/)[[^]](https://www.ktiv.com/2026/07/06/iowa-senate-candidate-josh-turek-outlines-farm-policies-calls-right-to-repair-tariff-relief/)[[^]](https://turek4iowa.com/platform) |
Turek's Trade Position | Advocates for ending trade tariffs [[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/2026/02/24/iowa-farmers-call-out-chaotic-tariffs-that-ashley-hinson-continues-to-support-in-dc/)[[^]](https://www.ktiv.com/2026/07/06/iowa-senate-candidate-josh-turek-outlines-farm-policies-calls-right-to-repair-tariff-relief/)[[^]](https://turek4iowa.com/platform) |
Hinson's Agricultural Initiative | Led the EATS Act [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/07/28/2713412/0/en/Farmers-and-Ranchers-Storm-Capitol-Hill-in-Fierce-Opposition-to-Marshall-Hinson-EATS-Act.html) |

**Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek hold opposing views on trade tariffs**

Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek hold opposing views on trade tariffs. Hinson supports the continuation of existing trade tariffs, while Turek argues for their termination, asserting that these tariffs harm Iowa farmers by increasing input costs and restricting access to export markets [[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/2026/02/24/iowa-farmers-call-out-chaotic-tariffs-that-ashley-hinson-continues-to-support-in-dc/)[[^]](https://www.ktiv.com/2026/07/06/iowa-senate-candidate-josh-turek-outlines-farm-policies-calls-right-to-repair-tariff-relief/)[[^]](https://turek4iowa.com/platform).

Agricultural policy reveals distinct approaches from both candidates. As a Republican U.S. Representative, Hinson champions the protection of farm safety nets and support for commodity growers. She opposes initiatives like the Green New Deal, which she believes would damage the agricultural sector, and promotes renewable energy and biofuels while rejecting what she deems excessive regulatory burdens and unfair taxes on producers [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2020). Hinson also led the EATS Act, an initiative that encountered significant opposition from some farm groups [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/07/28/2713412/0/en/Farmers-and-Ranchers-Storm-Capitol-Hill-in-Fierce-Opposition-to-Marshall-Hinson-EATS-Act.html). Conversely, Turek, a Democratic state Representative, campaigns on federal right-to-repair legislation, mandatory country-of-origin labeling, and the dissolution of agribusiness monopolies [[^]](https://turek4iowa.com/platform)[[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/news/agriculture/democrat-josh-turek-slams-senate-democrats-over-stalled-farm-bill/article_b23a90d5-dcf6-479c-ba93-010192fc388f.html). Both candidates have recently emphasized the urgent need for a new Farm Bill, with Turek specifically criticizing his own party for delays in the Senate Agriculture Committee [[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/news/agriculture/democrat-josh-turek-slams-senate-democrats-over-stalled-farm-bill/article_b23a90d5-dcf6-479c-ba93-010192fc388f.html).

Hinson’s extensive voting record contrasts with Turek’s less documented specifics. While Ashley Hinson possesses an extensive congressional voting record, detailed specific policy positions for Josh Turek regarding agricultural and trade legislation are less documented in the current campaign cycle compared to Hinson's established record [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/). The available information outlines Hinson's general stances and her leadership on the EATS Act, but a detailed comparative analysis of their specific voting records on these issues is not provided by the current research [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/).

## What is the data-driven case for a Josh Turek victory, considering historical midterm trends and Democratic voter registration numbers in Iowa for 2026?

Campaign Fundraising | $6.28 million (as of June 30, 2026) [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/) |
Seat Rating | Likely Republican [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/03/josh-turek-defeated-zach-wahls-in-the-democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-iowa-on-june-2-2026/) |
Recent State Trend | Republican shift [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb) |

**Josh Turek's campaign targets an open Iowa Senate seat in 2026**

Josh Turek's campaign targets an open Iowa Senate seat in 2026. His strategy against Ashley Hinson is designed to exceed traditional partisan performance, capitalizing on the open nature of the race despite Iowa's recent shift towards Republican voters [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb). By June 30, 2026, Turek's campaign had successfully raised **$6.28** million [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/). This approach seeks to overcome the recent trend of comfortable, double-digit Republican victories in Iowa, as independent forecasters currently assess the seat as Likely Republican [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/03/josh-turek-defeated-zach-wahls-in-the-democratic-primary-for-the-u-s-senate-in-iowa-on-june-2-2026/).

Turek aims to attract moderate voters with a bipartisan platform. He highlights his 'fighter for the people' platform, positioning himself as a representative for all Iowans [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb)[[^]](https://turek4iowa.com/). His campaign emphasizes his bipartisan moderate background and his experience winning a state House seat in a district that had previously voted for Donald Trump [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/). Turek's goal is to replicate this success and draw a clear contrast with Hinson's record [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/iowa-primary-sand-turek-wahls-hinson-feenstra-e7dd0976adce33da4424c75e1533e0fb)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/).

## How might the results of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election impact voter turnout and down-ballot results for Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek?

Hinson Senate Election Probability | 57% (Decision Desk HQ) [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |
Turek Senate Election Probability | 43% (Decision Desk HQ) [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |
Iowa Voter Registration | Significant Republican advantage [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/) |

**The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election will significantly impact the U.S**

The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election will significantly impact the U.S. Senate race. The contest between Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand and Republican businessman Zach Lahn is expected to influence the concurrent U.S. Senate election featuring Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_Iowa)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iowa_gubernatorial_election)[[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Zach_Lahn)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Rob_Sand). This dynamic is crucial because the Senate contest is identified as a base turnout election, where each party's ability to mobilize its voters is critical [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa,_2026)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/).

Gubernatorial campaigns will drive distinct mobilization strategies for Senate candidates. Ashley Hinson's success in the Senate race relies on mobilizing Trump-aligned voters, a strategy that could be bolstered by the Republican gubernatorial campaign [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/). Conversely, Josh Turek's path to victory requires him to differentiate himself from the national Democratic Party to appeal to moderate or independent voters, particularly in a state with a significant Republican registration advantage [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/). The presence of both gubernatorial candidates is expected to contribute to overall party voter mobilization efforts on November 3, 2026, thereby affecting turnout for the Senate contenders [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_Iowa)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iowa_gubernatorial_election)[[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/josh-turek-ashley-hinson-iowa-us-senate-race-election-day-2026/90815519007/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Zach_Lahn)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Rob_Sand).

Current forecasts suggest a tight Senate race influenced by the gubernatorial contest. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Ashley Hinson to be narrowly favored in the 2026 U.S. Senate election, assigning her a **57%** **probability** of winning compared to **43%** for Josh Turek [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast). This projection underscores the competitive nature of the race and the potential impact of the gubernatorial election on its outcome.

## How is the significant outside spending from groups like the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate Majority PAC being allocated between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in the final months of the 2026 campaign?

Senate Leadership Fund Commitment | $29 million for Ashley Hinson (2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/06/senate-leadership-fund-29-million-ashley-hinson-iowa-senate-bid/89477368007/)[[^]](https://www.news8000.com/news/politics/national-politics/a-paralympian-and-prairie-populist-how-this-iowa-senate-candidate-is-trying-to-spark-a/article_f8916265-25bb-58dd-8f12-7e98fc120f44.html) |
Senate Majority PAC Commitment | $13 million for Josh Turek (2026 general election) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/06/senate-leadership-fund-29-million-ashley-hinson-iowa-senate-bid/89477368007/)[[^]](https://www.news8000.com/news/politics/national-politics/a-paralympian-and-prairie-populist-how-this-iowa-senate-candidate-is-trying-to-spark-a/article_f8916265-25bb-58dd-8f12-7e98fc120f44.html) |
Josh Turek Outside Support | $9.78 million (as of July 2026 FEC data) [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[^]](https://integration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |

**National PACs are heavily investing in Iowa's 2026 U.S**

National PACs are heavily investing in Iowa's 2026 U.S. Senate race. The 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election is drawing significant financial commitments from national political action committees. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has pledged **$29** million to support candidate Ashley Hinson, with plans to fund broadcast television, cable, streaming, and radio advertising, as well as field organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/06/senate-leadership-fund-29-million-ashley-hinson-iowa-senate-bid/89477368007/)[[^]](https://www.news8000.com/news/politics/national-politics/a-paralympian-and-prairie-populist-how-this-iowa-senate-candidate-is-trying-to-spark-a/article_f8916265-25bb-58dd-8f12-7e98fc120f44.html). These activities are scheduled to run from the summer through Election Day on November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/06/senate-leadership-fund-29-million-ashley-hinson-iowa-senate-bid/89477368007/)[[^]](https://www.news8000.com/news/politics/national-politics/a-paralympian-and-prairie-populist-how-this-iowa-senate-candidate-is-trying-to-spark-a/article_f8916265-25bb-58dd-8f12-7e98fc120f44.html). On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC has committed **$13** million to bolster Josh Turek's campaign for the general election, outlining similar spending for advertising and grassroots initiatives during the same period [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/06/senate-leadership-fund-29-million-ashley-hinson-iowa-senate-bid/89477368007/)[[^]](https://www.news8000.com/news/politics/national-politics/a-paralympian-and-prairie-populist-how-this-iowa-senate-candidate-is-trying-to-spark-a/article_f8916265-25bb-58dd-8f12-7e98fc120f44.html).

FEC data reveals substantial outside support for both candidates. According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data from the July 2026 quarterly reporting period, Ashley Hinson's campaign received between **$1.17** million and **$2.50** million in outside support, alongside **$536,861** in outside opposition spending [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[^]](https://integration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast). During the same reporting period, Josh Turek's campaign notably received **$9.78** million in outside support [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[^]](https://integration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast).

## What do the final campaign finance reports from Q3 2026 reveal about the cash-on-hand advantage for Ashley Hinson versus Josh Turek?

Q3 2026 Reports Status | Not yet available; due by October 15, 2026 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/060/202602209837825060/202602209837825060.pdf)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/891/202601219794114891/202601219794114891.pdf) |
Ashley Hinson Cash-on-Hand (June 30, 2026) | $6,749,491.49 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00706267/1995601/)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00706267/) |
Funds Raised (June 30, 2026) | Ashley Hinson: $23,009,662; Josh Turek: $6,276,527 [[^]](https://integration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast) |

**Q3 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet public**

Q3 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet public. As of August 18, 2026, the final campaign finance reports for the third quarter of 2026, which cover the period from July 1 to September 30, 2026, have not been released. These reports are scheduled to be filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by October 15, 2026 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/060/202602209837825060/202602209837825060.pdf)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/891/202601219794114891/202601219794114891.pdf). Therefore, the precise cash-on-hand advantage between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek for Q3 2026 cannot be determined from these reports at this time [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa,_2026)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa).

Ashley Hinson held a substantial cash-on-hand lead as of Q2 2026. Data from previous reporting periods offers insight into their financial standings. As of the June 30, 2026, reporting deadline, Ashley Hinson's principal campaign committee reported an ending cash-on-hand of **$6,749,491.49** [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00706267/1995601/)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00706267/). At that same time, Hinson had raised a total of **$23,009,662** and spent **$16,375,336**. In comparison, Josh Turek had raised **$6,276,527** and spent **$3,914,213** [[^]](https://integration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election/forecast). The exact cash-on-hand for Josh Turek as of June 30, 2026, was not specified in the provided information.

Historical trends consistently show Hinson's financial advantage. Throughout earlier periods, including Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, Ashley Hinson has consistently maintained a significant cash-on-hand advantage over her Democratic opponents, including Josh Turek [[^]](https://www.hastingstribune.com/ap/agriculture/democratic-candidates-start-2026-with-a-fundraising-bang/article_52414bcd-1f67-54bb-a5ba-6cd3cc272d25.html)[[^]](https://rollcall.com/2025/10/16/fundraising-third-quarter-senate-house-elections/)[[^]](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/10/17/gop-federal-candidates-outraise-democrats-in-iowa-with-one-exception/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 U.S.** Senate election in Iowa is scheduled for November 3, 2026, for an open seat following incumbent Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek re-election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa,_2026)[[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/general-election)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/). Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, and U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson secured the Republican nomination [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/09/03/rep-ashley-hinson-becomes-the-10th-u-s-house-member-who-is-running-for-the-u-s-senate-in-2026/). Thomas Laehn is running as the Libertarian Party candidate [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa,_2026)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/turek-hinson-running-for-open-u-s-senate-seat-in-iowa-as-ernst-retires/)[[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/democrat-josh-turek-and-gops-ashley-hinson-to-compete-for-pivotal-us-senate-seat-in-iowa/). As of September 2025, independent forecasters rated the seat as Likely Republican or Solid Republican [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/09/03/rep-ashley-hinson-becomes-the-10th-u-s-house-member-who-is-running-for-the-u-s-senate-in-2026/).

**The Cook Political Report shifted the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" following the primary elections, indicating a competitive contest [[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/news/elections/turek-wins-democratic-nomination-for-iowa-u-s-senate-seat-setting-up-showdown-with-hinson/article_89fae0fd-313d-4417-ab4d-539c70cbac05.html)[[^]](https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-primary-election-results-us-senate-2026-turek-wahls-hinson-carlin/71475902).** The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend **$29** million on the race [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/iowa-senate-election-primary-winners-turek-hinson-rcna347468). Hinson has campaigned on issues including border security, the economy, and corruption in Washington, specifically supporting a ban on members of Congress trading stocks or participating in prediction markets [[^]](https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-primary-election-results-us-senate-2026-turek-wahls-hinson-carlin/71475902)[[^]](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/06/02/u-s-rep-ashley-hinson-wins-gop-nomination-for-u-s-senate-seat-ap-projects/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** November 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 U.S.
- Senate election in Iowa is scheduled for November 3, 2026, for an open seat following incumbent Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek re-election [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, and U.S.
- Representative Ashley Hinson secured the Republican nomination [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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