# How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/13 - 9/19)

Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 19, 2026

Updated: September 17, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Recurring

HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-9-13-9-19/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order during the week of September 13–19, 2026, confirming the threshold of at least one order this week, as priced by the **market** at **99.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- The market confirmed 'Above 0' as President Trump signed one Executive Order.** A single water quality order was signed mid-week, precisely one order.
*   This outcome means thresholds for more than one executive order resolve false.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

President Trump signed one water quality executive order on September 16, 2026, confirming the **market** outcome at **99.0%**.

The market's primary move was a 79.0 percentage point spike on September 16, 2026, which occurred after President Trump signed an Executive Order. The order, titled "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support," was issued that day. This action satisfied the market's resolution condition, driving the probability from 20.0% to 99.0%.

An earlier surge on September 12 saw the market jump 63.0 percentage points, from 2.0% to 65.0%. There is no specific news event, announcement, or social media activity in the provided information that coincides with or explains this initial move. The price action appears to reflect anticipation ahead of the resolution week rather than a reaction to a discrete catalyst.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0 | 99.0% | 100.0% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order during the specified week, confirming this threshold. |
| Above 1 | 86.0% | 62.8% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met. |
| Above 2 | 76.0% | 51.3% | President Trump signed exactly one Executive Order, meaning this threshold cannot be met. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0 | 99.0% | 100.0% |
| Above 1 | 86.0% | 62.8% |
| Above 2 | 76.0% | 51.3% |

- Expiration: October 3, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 2

#### 📈 September 17, 2026: 58.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 76.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the price movement was the signing of an executive order by President Trump on September 16, 2026, regarding water quality improvements [[1]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/). This official announcement, occurring the day before the market spike, likely increased expectations for additional executive actions during the remaining days of the week (September 17-19), thus raising the perceived probability of reaching "Above 2" total executive orders. There is no direct evidence of specific social media activity by key figures predicting "Above 2" executive orders that led to or coincided with this market movement. Therefore, social media was largely irrelevant in this instance.

### Outcome: Above 0

#### 📈 September 16, 2026: 79.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** Despite a 79.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 16, 2026, research found no public records of Executive Orders signed by President Trump between September 13-19, 2026 [[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/supporting-americas-ranchers/). There is no information indicating any specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor traditional news announcements, that would have triggered such a sharp increase in belief that an Executive Order would be signed during this specific week [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-allies-fret-over-how-trump-might-play-his-taiwan-hand-with-xi-2026-09-17/)[[4]](https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2026/09/17/donald-trump-fed-interest)[[5]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/trump-vance-ai-alarms)[[6]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/16/politics/trump-ai-denial-hoax)[[7]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6094099-kennedy-center-closure-trump/)[[8]](https://ssrs.com/news/marquette-law-school-poll-democrats-expand-lead-on-congressional-ballot/)[[9]](https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/us-midterm-update-democratic-sweep-odds-rise-on-polymarket-to-59)[[10]](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/09/16/democrats-open-big-midterm-edge-in-new-marquette-national-poll-blue-wave-gilbert/91763960007/)[[11]](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-squeezed-costs-frustrated-voters-turn-democrats)[[12]](https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/democrats-maintain-significant-midterm-advantage-in-post-labor-day-poll/). While general discussions around "executive orders" and President Trump's advisors were noted [[13]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYg6BTjb90E)[[14]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj4pTYsVSWQ), these did not constitute a specific announcement or credible rumor for the market's target period. Therefore, based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.

#### 📈 September 12, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 65.0%

**What happened:** The prediction market for President Trump signing "Above 0" Executive Orders between September 13-19, 2026, experienced a 63.0 percentage point spike on September 12, 2026. However, the provided sources contain no information regarding specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors that occurred on or before September 12, 2026, to explain this movement [[15]](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733). While President Trump later signed one Executive Order, "Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support," on September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/), there is no evidence of a preceding public announcement or social media post precisely driving the market on September 12, 2026. Based on the available information, social media's role as a primary driver cannot be determined.

### Outcome: Above 1

#### 📈 September 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 40.0%

**What happened:** The research provides no direct evidence of social media activity or specific news announcements on September 13, 2026, that would primarily drive a 10.0 percentage point spike for the "Above 1" outcome in executive orders. While President Trump is serving his second term [[16]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733) and had signed 281 executive orders by September 15, 2026 [[17]](https://ballotpedia.org/), no timely official releases or forecasts regarding executive orders for the week of September 13–19 were found [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-allies-fret-over-how-trump-might-play-his-taiwan-hand-with-xi-2026-09-17/)[[5]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/trump-vance-ai-alarms)[[18]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13268). Therefore, the primary driver for this market movement remains unclear, and social media activity was irrelevant.

Sources:

1. [Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)
2. [Supporting America's Ranchers – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/supporting-americas-ranchers/)
3. [US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-allies-fret-over-how-trump-might-play-his-taiwan-hand-with-xi-2026-09-17/)
4. [Trump lashes out after US Fed hikes rates](https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2026/09/17/donald-trump-fed-interest)
5. [Trump suggests AI needs a ’STRONG AND SMART’ president | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/trump-vance-ai-alarms)
6. [Trump’s AI denialism explained with one word | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/16/politics/trump-ai-denial-hoax)
7. [Kennedy Center battle escalates as feds block Trump name plan](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6094099-kennedy-center-closure-trump/)
8. [New Marquette Law School national survey finds Democrats expand lead on congressional ballots; Trump approval declines - SSRS](https://ssrs.com/news/marquette-law-school-poll-democrats-expand-lead-on-congressional-ballot/)
9. [US Midterm Update: Democratic sweep odds rise on Polymarket to 59% | Newsquawk](https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/us-midterm-update-democratic-sweep-odds-rise-on-polymarket-to-59)
10. [Democrats open big midterm edge in new Marquette national poll](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/09/16/democrats-open-big-midterm-edge-in-new-marquette-national-poll-blue-wave-gilbert/91763960007/)
11. [Trump's approval hits 39%, and voters blame his economy for inflation | Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-squeezed-costs-frustrated-voters-turn-democrats)
12. [Democrats Maintain Significant Midterm Advantage in Post-Labor Day Poll](https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/democrats-maintain-significant-midterm-advantage-in-post-labor-day-poll/)
13. [Top White House Advisor: The US Empire Is Dying And Socialism Is Coming Next! | David Friedberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYg6BTjb90E)
14. [Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj4pTYsVSWQ)
15. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
16. [President Donald Trump - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
17. [Donald Trump presidential administration, 2025-2026](https://ballotpedia.org/)
18. [Controlling Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Executive Order 14409 Explained | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13268)

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the total number of Executive Orders signed by Donald Trump between September 13th and September 19th. For a contract such as "Above N," a "YES" resolution occurs if more than N Executive Orders are signed during this period, while a "NO" resolution occurs if N or fewer are signed. The provided content does not specify any special settlement conditions or particular data sources for counting the Executive Orders.

## Market Discussion

Donald Trump is serving his second term as President of the United States as of September 17, 2026, and prediction markets regularly track the number of Executive Orders he signs weekly [[1]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump)[[2]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)[[3]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733). However, no specific prediction market data or public consensus is available for the exact number of Executive Orders he will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [[4]](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-allies-fret-over-how-trump-might-play-his-taiwan-hand-with-xi-2026-09-17/)[[5]](https://www.congress.gov/on-senate-floor/2026/09/14)[[6]](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-172/issue-144/daily-digest). During this period, President Trump did issue a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [[7]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/).

Sources:

1. [Second presidency of Donald Trump - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump)
2. [How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)
3. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
4. [US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-allies-fret-over-how-trump-might-play-his-taiwan-hand-with-xi-2026-09-17/)
5. [On the Senate Floor on September 14, 2026 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/on-senate-floor/2026/09/14)
6. [Congressional Record | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-172/issue-144/daily-digest)
7. [Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/)

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0 | 99% | 100% | 99% | 7,281 contracts | 4,452 contracts |
| Above 1 | 85% | 89% | 86% | 4,225 contracts | 2,914 contracts |
| Above 2 | 72% | 82% | 76% | 1,023 contracts | 915 contracts |

## How does President Trump's weekly average of executive orders in his second term (2025-2026) compare to his first term (2017-2021)?

Second Term Weekly Average | 3.3 executive orders per week (as of early September 2026) [[1]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders) |
First Term Weekly Average | 1.06 executive orders per week [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders) |
Second Term Total Orders | 279 executive orders (as of early September 2026) [[1]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders) |

**President Trump's second term exhibits a significantly higher weekly average of executive orders**

President Trump's second term exhibits a significantly higher weekly average of executive orders. As of early September 2026, his administration has averaged roughly 3.3 executive orders per week in his second term [[1]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders). This is notably greater than the average of approximately 1.06 orders per week recorded during his first term [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders).

Specific data highlights increased executive order issuance in the second term. In his first term, from 2017 to 2021, President Trump issued a total of 220 executive orders [[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders). For his ongoing second term, which commenced in January 2025, he has issued 279 executive orders as of early September 2026 [[1]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders). This current pace translates to an estimated 173-175 orders per year [[1]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[2]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)[[3]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)[[4]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders).

Sources:

1. [EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Trace](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)
2. [Trump issued six executive orders in August, bringing his second-term total to 277 - Ballotpedia News](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/03/trump-issued-six-executive-orders-in-august-bringing-his-second-term-total-to-277/)
3. [Executive Orders | The American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)
4. [Executive Orders | The American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders)

## What policy debates or events in September 2026 likely prompted the executive order on water quality signed during the market week?

Executive Order Signed | September 16, 2026 [[1]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)[[4]](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/) |
Revoked Order | 2009 Executive Order 13508 (Chesapeake Bay) [[1]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)[[4]](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/) |
Prediction Market Week | September 13–19, 2026 [[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)[[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtrumpact-26sep06) |

**President Trump signed a significant water quality executive order on September 16, 2026**

President Trump signed a significant water quality executive order on September 16, 2026. Titled 'Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support,' this action effectively revoked Executive Order 13508, which was issued in 2009 and focused on the Chesapeake Bay [[1]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)[[4]](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/). Prediction markets recorded this executive action during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [[5]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)[[6]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtrumpact-26sep06).

The executive order addressed ongoing policy debates about 'rain taxes.' These discussions centered on stormwater management fees, which are levied by local municipalities [[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)[[4]](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/). The administration contended that these fees constituted an unintended and burdensome consequence, directly stemming from the original 2009 mandate on water quality [[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)[[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)[[4]](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/).

The order specifically directs the EPA to collaborate with regional jurisdictions. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is mandated to work with jurisdictions across the Chesapeake Bay watershed [[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453). This collaboration aims to both assess and alleviate the financial burden that these stormwater fees place on residents in the affected areas [[3]](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453).

Sources:

1. [Providing Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/providing-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)
2. [Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Provides Meaningful Water Quality Improvements Through Collaboration and Oversight of Federal Support – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-provides-meaningful-water-quality-improvements-through-collaboration-and-oversight-of-federal-support/)
3. [Trump Revokes 2009 Chesapeake Bay Order | The Epoch Times](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-revokes-2009-chesapeake-bay-order-6088453)
4. [Trump signs executive order revoking controversial 'rain tax'](https://www.citizensvoice.com/2026/09/16/trump-signs-executive-order-revoking-controversial-rain-tax/)
5. [How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)
6. [How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxtrumpact-26sep06)

## What does the historical data on President Trump's executive orders in 2026 reveal about his typical signing frequency leading up to September?

EOs in 2026 (as of mid-September) | 51 [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026) |
Total EOs in second term (as of Sept 15, 2026) | 281 [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)[[2]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[3]](https://trumpexecutiveorders.com/) |
EOs signed in early September 2026 | At least 3 (between Sept 4-8, 2026) [[4]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eo-14426.pdf)[[5]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18567/promoting-fair-competition-in-livestock-markets-and-expanding-market-access-for-american-meat)[[6]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/11/2026-18739/adjusting-certain-delegations-under-the-defense-production-act)[[7]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18571/supporting-americas-ranchers) |

**President Trump signed 51 executive orders in 2026 by mid-September**

President Trump signed 51 executive orders in 2026 by mid-September. These executive orders, numbered 14372 through 14422, were signed within the calendar year 2026 [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026). Cumulatively, since the start of his second presidential term on January 20, 2025, President Trump had issued a total of 281 executive orders as of September 15, 2026 [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)[[2]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[3]](https://trumpexecutiveorders.com/).

Several executive orders were signed during early September 2026. Between September 4 and September 8, 2026, President Trump signed at least three executive orders [[4]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eo-14426.pdf)[[5]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18567/promoting-fair-competition-in-livestock-markets-and-expanding-market-access-for-american-meat)[[6]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/11/2026-18739/adjusting-certain-delegations-under-the-defense-production-act)[[7]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18571/supporting-americas-ranchers). Specifically, Executive Orders 14424 and 14425 were issued on September 4 [[4]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eo-14426.pdf)[[5]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18567/promoting-fair-competition-in-livestock-markets-and-expanding-market-access-for-american-meat)[[7]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18571/supporting-americas-ranchers), followed by Executive Order 14427 on September 8 [[4]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eo-14426.pdf)[[6]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/11/2026-18739/adjusting-certain-delegations-under-the-defense-production-act). However, the existing historical data is insufficient to establish President Trump's typical executive order signing frequency leading up to September 2026.

Sources:

1. [Federal Register:: Executive Orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)
2. [Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)
3. [Trump Executive Orders - Official Presidential Documents Tracker](https://trumpexecutiveorders.com/)
4. [Presidential Documents](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eo-14426.pdf)
5. [Federal Register:: Promoting Fair Competition in Livestock Markets and Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producers](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18567/promoting-fair-competition-in-livestock-markets-and-expanding-market-access-for-american-meat)
6. [Federal Register:: Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Act](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/11/2026-18739/adjusting-certain-delegations-under-the-defense-production-act)
7. [Federal Register:: Supporting America's Ranchers](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/10/2026-18571/supporting-americas-ranchers)

## What are the most reliable public sources for tracking President Trump's executive orders in near real-time for the 2026 calendar year?

Official Public Sources | Federal Register (federalregister.gov) and White House website (whitehouse.gov) [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)[[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/)[[3]](https://www.federalregister.gov/) |
Third-Party Trackers | Capitol Trace (EO Watch), Ballotpedia, and Executive-orders.com [[4]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[6]](https://www.executive-orders.com/)[[7]](https://legilist.com/exec/) |
Most Recent Executive Order Date | September 8, 2026 (EO 14426 and EO 14427) [[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[6]](https://www.executive-orders.com/) |

**Official government sources reliably track President Trump's executive orders**

Official government sources reliably track President Trump's executive orders. The Federal Register (federalregister.gov) and the White House website (whitehouse.gov) are considered the most reliable public channels for monitoring these directives [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)[[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/)[[3]](https://www.federalregister.gov/). While the Federal Register is recognized as the authoritative publisher of presidential documents, it typically experiences a reporting delay between the signing date and official publication [[1]](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)[[3]](https://www.federalregister.gov/). The White House website consistently serves as another dependable public resource [[2]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/).

Third-party trackers offer near real-time updates and searchable databases. For more immediate information and additional context, resources such as Capitol Trace (EO Watch), Ballotpedia, and Executive-orders.com provide searchable dashboards [[4]](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)[[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[6]](https://www.executive-orders.com/)[[7]](https://legilist.com/exec/). As of September 17, 2026, these public databases do not list any executive orders signed by President Trump between September 13 and September 19, 2026. The most recent executive orders recorded by these trackers were EO 14426 and EO 14427, both dated September 8, 2026 [[5]](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)[[6]](https://www.executive-orders.com/).

Sources:

1. [Federal Register:: Executive Orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026)
2. [Executive Orders – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/)
3. [Executive Orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/)
4. [EO Watch — Executive Order Tracker | Capitol Trace](https://capitoltrace.com/eo-watch)
5. [Donald Trump's executive orders and actions, 2025-2026 - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump%27s_executive_orders_and_actions,_2025-2026)
6. [Executive Orders — Track & Analyze U.S. Presidential Orders](https://www.executive-orders.com/)
7. [Executive Branch Tracker: Presidents, Orders, Proclamations, Statements, and Vetoes - LegiList](https://legilist.com/exec/)

## What market-moving news or statements on September 12, 2026 might explain the 63-point price spike before the observation period began?

Dow Jones Industrial Average gain (Sept 12, 2026) | 509.19 points (approx. 1%) [[1]](https://www.newser.com/article/8c3272812f5e9b9238c6a3301921c17a/us-stocks-jump-after-oil-prices-ease-and-an-inflation-update-comes-in-near-expectations.html) |
Crude oil price surge (Sept 12, 2026) | Past $100 per barrel [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-links-iran-saudi-pipeline-attack/)[[3]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/oil-jumped-3-saudi-escape-valve-100-changed-2609/)[[4]](https://walletinvestor.com/news/trading-news/saudi-arabia-shuts-east-west-pipeline-after-drone-strikes-as-crude-tops-102/)[[5]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pipeline-attack-changed-oil-trade-2609/)[[6]](https://toptierbroker.com/posts/saudi-pipeline-shutdown-and-oil-s-100-barrier-what-the-iraq-attributed-drone-str) |
30-year fixed mortgage rate (week of Sept 12, 2026) | 7.12% [[7]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/)[[8]](https://www.investmenthouse.com/2026/09/12/warshs-first-rate-hike-is-here-where-does-the-sp-500-go-next/) |

**The research does not provide specific data regarding a 63-point spike in prediction market odds**

The research does not provide specific data regarding a 63-point spike in prediction **market** odds. The available information does not detail real-time contract odds for the prediction **market** concerning the number of Executive Orders Trump will sign or any related 63-point price spike before the observation period began [[9]](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12). However, September 12, 2026, was marked by significant general **market** activity influenced by various factors. On this date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notably gained 509.19 points, an approximate **1%** increase, following an inflation update that aligned with economist expectations and a temporary ease in oil prices [[1]](https://www.newser.com/article/8c3272812f5e9b9238c6a3301921c17a/us-stocks-jump-after-oil-prices-ease-and-an-inflation-update-comes-in-near-expectations.html).

Geopolitical events significantly impacted crude oil prices on September 12, 2026. Crude oil prices surged past **$100** per barrel due to drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, leading to the closure of this critical infrastructure [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-links-iran-saudi-pipeline-attack/)[[3]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/oil-jumped-3-saudi-escape-valve-100-changed-2609/)[[4]](https://walletinvestor.com/news/trading-news/saudi-arabia-shuts-east-west-pipeline-after-drone-strikes-as-crude-tops-102/)[[5]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pipeline-attack-changed-oil-trade-2609/)[[6]](https://toptierbroker.com/posts/saudi-pipeline-shutdown-and-oil-s-100-barrier-what-the-iraq-attributed-drone-str). Simultaneously, President Trump publicly linked Iran to these drone attacks as oil prices experienced a rapid increase [[2]](https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-links-iran-saudi-pipeline-attack/).

These events fostered an environment of persistent inflation fears. The escalating oil prices and geopolitical tensions contributed to widespread concerns about inflation, which notably affected bond markets [[7]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/)[[8]](https://www.investmenthouse.com/2026/09/12/warshs-first-rate-hike-is-here-where-does-the-sp-500-go-next/). Over the week of September 12, 2026, 1-year to 7-year Treasury yields experienced a spike of 22-26 basis points [[7]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/). Concurrently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to **7.12%** [[7]](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/). In direct response to these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve subsequently raised interest rates [[10]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPYg7a1jeWM).

Sources:

1. [US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations | Newser](https://www.newser.com/article/8c3272812f5e9b9238c6a3301921c17a/us-stocks-jump-after-oil-prices-ease-and-an-inflation-update-comes-in-near-expectations.html)
2. [Trump links Iran to drone attack on Saudi pipeline as oil prices spike toward $110](https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-links-iran-saudi-pipeline-attack/)
3. [Oil Jumped $3, but the Saudi Escape Valve That Kept It Under $100 Is What Actually Changed](https://www.ainvest.com/news/oil-jumped-3-saudi-escape-valve-100-changed-2609/)
4. [Saudi Arabia Shuts East-West Pipeline After Drone Strikes as Crude Tops $102 - WalletInvestor.com](https://walletinvestor.com/news/trading-news/saudi-arabia-shuts-east-west-pipeline-after-drone-strikes-as-crude-tops-102/)
5. [The Pipeline Attack That Changed the Oil Trade](https://www.ainvest.com/news/pipeline-attack-changed-oil-trade-2609/)
6. [Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Pushes Oil Past $100 as Drone Strikes Escalate | Top Tier Broker](https://toptierbroker.com/posts/saudi-pipeline-shutdown-and-oil-s-100-barrier-what-the-iraq-attributed-drone-str)
7. [Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked | Wolf Street](https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/)
8. [Warsh’s First Rate Hike Is Here. Where Does the S&P 500 Go Next? – Investment House](https://www.investmenthouse.com/2026/09/12/warshs-first-rate-hike-is-here-where-does-the-sp-500-go-next/)
9. [How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12) - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithm](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxeoweek-26sep12)
10. [Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two | Bloomberg...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPYg7a1jeWM)

## What Could Change the Odds

**President Donald J.** Trump is serving a term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [[1]](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)[[2]](https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/02/24/172/36/modified/CREC-2026-02-24-pt1-PgS645-2.htm)[[3]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733). As of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, he had issued 6 Executive Orders during September 2026 [[4]](https://www.federalregister.gov/). He continues to issue formal presidential actions, including a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [[5]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/).

**There is no publicly available, predictive information or expert consensus regarding the specific number of Executive Orders President Trump will sign during the week of September 13–19, 2026 [[6]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10211/BILLS-119hr10211ih.htm)[[7]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10186/BILLS-119hr10186ih.pdf).** Presidential activity is determined by ongoing political and administrative priorities, with no fixed schedule for future Executive Orders [[4]](https://www.federalregister.gov/).

Sources:

1. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
2. [Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htm](https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/02/24/172/36/modified/CREC-2026-02-24-pt1-PgS645-2.htm)
3. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
4. [2026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/)
5. [Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/)
6. [https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10211/BILLS-119hr10211ih.htm](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10211/BILLS-119hr10211ih.htm)
7. [H. R. 10186](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr10186/BILLS-119hr10186ih.pdf)

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** October 03, 2026
- **Closes:** October 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- President Donald J.
- Trump is serving a term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029 [[1]](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)[[2]](https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/02/24/172/36/modified/CREC-2026-02-24-pt1-PgS645-2.htm)[[3]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733).
- As of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, he had issued 6 Executive Orders during September 2026 [[4]](https://www.federalregister.gov/).
- He continues to issue formal presidential actions, including a proclamation for Constitution Week on September 16, 2026 [[5]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/).

Sources:

1. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
2. [Crec 2026 02 24 pt1 pgs645 2.htm](https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/02/24/172/36/modified/CREC-2026-02-24-pt1-PgS645-2.htm)
3. [President Donald Trump \[R, 2025-2029\], President of the United States - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/other-people/donald_trump/412733)
4. [2026 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/)
5. [Constitution Day, Citizenship Day, and Constitution Week, 2026 – The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/constitution-day-citizenship-day-and-constitution-week-2026/)

## Related Research Reports

- [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/)
- [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/)
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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-2: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-1: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26SEP05-0: YES (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-2: YES (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26AUG29-1: YES (Sep 04, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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