# Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Before his term ends

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Trump

HTML: /markets/politics/trump/will-trump-be-impeached-and-removed-from-office/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Trump to be impeached and removed from office before his term ends, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Seven Republican senators previously voted to convict Donald Trump.** - House resolutions detailed multiple serious legal grounds for impeachment.
- Impeachment and 25th Amendment removal processes differ significantly.
- No official 119th Congress impeachment timetables or records have been found.
- 2026 midterm elections may influence potential impeachment proceedings.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **17%** **probability** is below the 22c **market**, despite a 4.5x payout if correct, highlighting removal challenges.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before his term ends | 22.0% | 17.0% | Impeachment and removal from office requires significant political will and a supermajority vote in the Senate. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 17.0% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 22.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Before his term ends
- Edge: -5.0pp
- Expected Return: -22.7%
- R-Score: -0.50
- Total Volume: $450,741.14
- 24h Volume: $2,745.31
- Open Interest: $210,435.15

- Expiration: January 20, 2029

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market is characterized by a sideways trend, with the probability of impeachment and removal trading within a narrow six-point range between 21.0% and 27.0%. The current price of 22.0% is near the established support level, having drifted down from a starting point of 25.0%. This persistent range-bound activity, supported by a significant total volume of over 27,000 contracts, suggests a stable market consensus and a lack of conviction for a major move in either direction. The market has effectively established 21.0% as a floor and 27.0% as a ceiling for the perceived probability.

The recent price fluctuation within this range can be directly linked to the provided context. The market saw a brief increase to 26.0% following reports that articles of impeachment were filed in early April 2026. However, this upward momentum reversed quickly, with the price falling to 22.0% by May 8. This drop suggests that while traders initially reacted to the headline news, they ultimately assessed that the filing represents a preliminary step with a low chance of leading to actual removal from office. The market sentiment, as reflected by the price action, indicates a consistent belief that impeachment and removal is a low-probability event, with traders selling into any temporary price spikes driven by procedural developments.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the President of the United States is impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before January 20, 2029, provided the President is sitting in office the day the Senate votes. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO if this event does not occur by the deadline. The market closes early if the event occurs, or by January 20, 2029, at 10:00 AM EST, with outcomes verified by the U.S. Senate.

## Market Discussion

Traders are intensely focused on the market rules requiring both impeachment by the House and conviction by 67 Senators, viewing the latter as an extremely high bar. Arguments for "No" primarily cite the near impossibility of securing 67 Senate votes for conviction, with many suggesting that Donald Trump would likely resign to avoid removal if faced with that prospect. Conversely, some "Yes" arguments propose that a strong Democratic Senate majority combined with a contingent of Republicans disloyal to Trump could make conviction possible.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before his term ends | 21% | 22% | 22% | $450,741.14 | $210,435.15 |

## Which Republican senators are considered potential swing votes, and what events could lead them to support a conviction of Donald Trump in a post-2026 Senate trial?

GOP Senators voted to convict in 2021 trial | 7 (Burr, Cassidy, Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, Toomey) [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/republican-votes-trump-guilty-convict-impeachment/) |
2021 Impeachment trial vote | 57-43 (fell short of 67 votes needed for conviction) [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/republican-votes-trump-guilty-convict-impeachment/) |
Probability of House impeachment before term ends | 76% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends) |

**Seven Republican senators previously voted to convict Donald Trump**

Seven Republican senators previously voted to convict Donald Trump. During the 2021 Senate trial, Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey all voted to convict Donald Trump [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/republican-votes-trump-guilty-convict-impeachment/). The final tally was 57–43, which did not meet the 67-vote threshold necessary for a conviction [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/republican-votes-trump-guilty-convict-impeachment/). Six of these senators—Cassidy, Romney, Collins, Toomey, Murkowski, and Sasse—were identified as potential swing votes to consider for any future conviction support due to their behavior in the prior trial [[^]](https://vox.com/22272229/senate-republicans-impeachment).

Research provides no specific events for future conviction support. The available research does not contain specific information regarding potential events that could lead these or other senators to support a conviction of Donald Trump in a post-2026 Senate trial. However, current prediction markets offer some insight into the **probability** of impeachment and removal. A Kalshi contract predicting Trump's impeachment and removal from office, with a resolution date before January 20, 2029, is currently priced at 23¢ for 'Yes' [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpremove/trump-removed/kxtrumpremove). Separately, a Polymarket contract concerning Trump's impeachment by the House before his term ends, which does not require Senate conviction, indicates a crowd **probability** of **76%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends).

## What are the specific legal grounds cited in the 2025-2026 articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, and how do they compare to historical precedents?

Date H.Res. 353 Introduced | April 28, 2025 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://hillheat.com/2025/04/29/full-text-of-h-res-353-impeaching-donald-john-trump-president-of-the-united-states-for-high-crimes-and-misdemeanors) |
Date H.Res. 939 Introduced | December 10, 2025 [[^]](https://algreen.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/algreen.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12.10.2025-filed-articles-of-impeachment-003.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text) |
Definition of "High Crimes" | Abuse or violation of an office and public trust [[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-4/impeachable-offenses-historical-background)[[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-2/clause-5/historical-background-on-impeachment) |

**The 2025-2026 articles of impeachment against Donald Trump cited multiple serious grounds**

The 2025-2026 articles of impeachment against Donald Trump cited multiple serious grounds. These were detailed in two separate House resolutions, both introduced under the premise of "high crimes and misdemeanors." H.Res. 353, introduced on April 28, 2025, encompassed violations such as obstruction of justice, violation of due process, breach of the duty to faithfully execute laws, usurpation of Congress’s appropriations power, abuse of trade powers and international aggression, violation of First Amendment rights, creation of an unlawful office, bribery and corruption, and "tyranny" [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://hillheat.com/2025/04/29/full-text-of-h-res-353-impeaching-donald-john-trump-president-of-the-united-states-for-high-crimes-and-misdemeanors). A subsequent resolution, H.Res. 939, introduced on December 10, 2025, focused on additional presidential power abuses, specifically citing calls for the execution of Members of Congress and intimidation of federal judges, which were considered violations of separation of powers and judicial independence [[^]](https://algreen.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/algreen.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12.10.2025-filed-articles-of-impeachment-003.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text).

These cited grounds align with historical precedents for impeachable offenses. Historically, "high crimes and misdemeanors," the legal standard for impeachment, is understood to encompass significant abuses or violations of public office and trust that subvert government functions, extending beyond common-law criminal offenses [[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-4/impeachable-offenses-historical-background)[[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-2/clause-5/historical-background-on-impeachment). The allegations against Donald Trump in the 2025-2026 articles, including obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and bribery, are consistent with this traditional interpretation, as they address actions considered to be abuses of office or public trust that undermine governmental operations [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://hillheat.com/2025/04/29/full-text-of-h-res-353-impeaching-donald-john-trump-president-of-the-united-states-for-high-crimes-and-misdemeanors)[[^]](https://algreen.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/algreen.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12.10.2025-filed-articles-of-impeachment-003.pdf)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text)[[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-4/impeachable-offenses-historical-background)[[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-2/clause-5/historical-background-on-impeachment).

## How do the processes for removing a president via impeachment and the 25th Amendment differ in terms of triggers, required votes, and timelines relevant to the 2025-2029 term?

Impeachment House Approval | Simple majority vote [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends) |
Impeachment Senate Removal Vote | Two-thirds vote of Senators present [[^]](https://law.cornell.edu/wex/impeachment) |
Market Resolution Condition | House approves articles of impeachment by simple majority; Senate conviction not required [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends) |

**Impeachment and 25th Amendment removal have distinct initiation methods**

Impeachment and 25th Amendment removal have distinct initiation methods. Impeachment proceedings begin when the House of Representatives approves articles of impeachment by a simple majority vote [[^]](https://law.cornell.edu/wex/impeachment). Conversely, the 25th Amendment Section 4 is triggered by a written declaration from the vice president and a majority of either the principal officers of executive departments or another body designated by Congress, asserting the president's inability to discharge presidential powers and duties [[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-25/overview-of-twenty-fifth-amendment-presidential-vacancy).

Removal vote thresholds significantly differ between the processes. For impeachment, conviction and removal from office require a two-thirds vote of Senators present [[^]](https://law.cornell.edu/wex/impeachment). Under the 25th Amendment Section 4, the vice president immediately assumes acting presidential powers and duties upon the initial declaration, without a congressional vote [[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-25/overview-of-twenty-fifth-amendment-presidential-vacancy). If the president disputes this, Congress must convene and decide within 21 days by a two-thirds vote of both the House and the Senate to permanently remove the president [[^]](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-25/overview-of-twenty-fifth-amendment-presidential-vacancy).

A specific prediction **market** has unique conditions for resolution. For the prediction **market** resolving before January 20, 2029, a "Yes" resolution is met if the House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment by a simple majority [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends). It is important to note that Senate conviction and subsequent removal from office are not necessary for this particular **market** to resolve as "Yes" [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends).

## Where can official timetables and records for the 119th Congress's impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump be tracked?

First Trump Acquittal | February 5, 2020 (116th Congress) [[^]](https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20191216/CRPT-116hrpt346.pdf)[[^]](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1162/vote_116_2_00033.htm)[[^]](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/house-votes-to-impeach-president-trump-what-happens-next)[[^]](https://www.apmresearchlab.org/impeachment/house-impeaches-trump) |
Second Trump Acquittal | February 13, 2021 (117th Congress) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump)[[^]](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1171/vote_117_1_00059.htm) |
Prediction Market Impeachment Chance (March 2026) | 72% before January 1, 2028 [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say) |

**No official timetables or records for Donald Trump's impeachment proceedings during the 119th Congress have been found**

No official timetables or records for Donald Trump's impeachment proceedings during the 119th Congress have been found. The research details past impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, noting he was acquitted by the Senate during the 116th Congress on February 5, 2020 [[^]](https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20191216/CRPT-116hrpt346.pdf)[[^]](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1162/vote_116_2_00033.htm)[[^]](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/house-votes-to-impeach-president-trump-what-happens-next)[[^]](https://www.apmresearchlab.org/impeachment/house-impeaches-trump). He was again acquitted during the 117th Congress on February 13, 2021, marking the first impeachment trial of a U.S. president after leaving office [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump)[[^]](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1171/vote_117_1_00059.htm). For these prior impeachments, records can be accessed through various congressional sources, including the evidentiary record from House proceedings [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-116hdoc95/pdf/CDOC-116hdoc95-vol12.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-116sdoc13/pdf/CDOC-116sdoc13-vol1.pdf), Senate trial proceedings [[^]](https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/proceedings-united-states-senate-impeachment-trial-president-donald-john-trump-pt-2)[[^]](https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/proceedings-united-states-senate-impeachment-trial-donald-john-trump-pt-3)[[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/impeachment-related-publications), and the Congressional Record [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/impeachment-related-publications).

Speculative prediction markets discuss potential future impeachment of Donald Trump. While official records for any potential 119th Congress proceedings are not detailed, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket hosted contracts as of May 2026 on whether Donald Trump will be impeached or removed from office [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-impeachment-betting-odds-polymarket-kalshi-b2942991.html)[[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-dealt-new-blow-as-impeachment-odds-hit-record-high-after-iran-threat/)[[^]](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/trump/). These markets differentiate between impeachment, which is a House vote, and removal from office, which requires a Senate conviction [[^]](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/trump/). As of March 2026, some platforms indicated a **72%** chance of Trump being impeached before January 1, 2028, with the chance of both impeachment and removal from office at **21.1%** [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say). Other reports from March and April 2026 showed impeachment odds ranging from **46%** to **69%** on these platforms [[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-impeachment-betting-odds-polymarket-kalshi-b2942991.html)[[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-dealt-new-blow-as-impeachment-odds-hit-record-high-after-iran-threat/). These prediction markets reflect speculative trading and are not guarantees of future events [[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-impeachment-betting-odds-polymarket-kalshi-b2942991.html).

## How might the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections influence impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump in the House and a potential conviction in the Senate?

House Impeachment Likelihood | 76% before Jan 20, 2029 (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends) |
Impeachment and Removal Likelihood | 23% before Jan 20, 2029 (Kalshi) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpremove/trump-removed/kxtrumpremove) |
Senate Conviction Vote | Two-thirds vote required [[^]](https://opinion.org/why-a-2026-impeachment-of-trump-is-unlikely-but-not-impossible/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-removal-chances-reach-all-time-high-11852602)[[^]](https://jsonline.com/story/news/trump/2026/02/12/president-donald-trump-odds-impeachment-predictions-polls-approval-rating/88640520007/) |

**Market probabilities suggest a notable chance of House impeachment**

**Market** probabilities suggest a notable chance of House impeachment. Data indicates a **76%** crowd **probability** on Polymarket that Donald Trump will be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before his term concludes on January 20, 2029 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends). However, the likelihood for such impeachment to occur by June 30 is considerably lower, at **5%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-june-30?outcomeIndex=1). For the full process of impeachment and removal from office, which requires both House impeachment and a two-thirds Senate conviction before January 20, 2029, Kalshi's **market** suggests approximately a **23%** chance. Earlier reports on April 7, 2026, placed these odds slightly higher at **27.4%** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpremove/trump-removed/kxtrumpremove)[[^]](https://news.kalshi.com/p/trump-impeachment-removal-odds-new-high-iran).

Senate conviction remains the primary obstacle for removal. Securing a two-thirds vote for conviction in the Senate represents the most significant hurdle for removal from office [[^]](https://opinion.org/why-a-2026-impeachment-of-trump-is-unlikely-but-not-impossible/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-removal-chances-reach-all-time-high-11852602)[[^]](https://jsonline.com/story/news/trump/2026/02/12/president-donald-trump-odds-impeachment-predictions-polls-approval-rating/88640520007/). Research indicates that the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections alone would not be sufficient to achieve this supermajority; instead, significant defections and substantial political will would be necessary [[^]](https://opinion.org/why-a-2026-impeachment-of-trump-is-unlikely-but-not-impossible/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-removal-chances-reach-all-time-high-11852602)[[^]](https://jsonline.com/story/news/trump/2026/02/12/president-donald-trump-odds-impeachment-predictions-polls-approval-rating/88640520007/). In the House, there has been active political engagement on this issue, with Democrats introducing impeachment-related proposals such as H.Res. 353 on April 28, 2025, and H.Res. 939 on December 10, 2025 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 20, 2029
- **Closes:** January 20, 2029

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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