# Will Trump expand the H1-B program?

During Trump's term

Updated: May 27, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Trump

HTML: /markets/politics/trump/will-trump-expand-the-h1-b-program/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Trump to expand the H1-B program before 2029, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Previous Trump administration implemented restrictive H1-B visa policies.** - "Buy American, Hire American" order impacted H1-B rules and changes.
- Proposed **$100,000** H1-B visa fee faces significant legal hurdles.
- H-1B Request for Evidence rates increased substantially 2017-2021.
- H-1B expansion expectations remain low despite tech leader advocacy.
- Trump administration has actively restricted H1-B since September 2025.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **13.4%** **probability** vs 20c **market**, implying 5.0x payout multiple given Trump's restrictive H-1B past.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before 2029 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Future policy considerations may include adjustments to high-skilled worker programs. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 13.4% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 20.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Before 2029
- Edge: -6.6pp
- Expected Return: -33.0%
- R-Score: -0.66
- Total Volume: $119,526.66
- 24h Volume: $21
- Open Interest: $17,231.53

- Expiration: January 20, 2029

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has demonstrated a sideways trading pattern, contained within a narrow 10-point range between 20.0% and 30.0%. The price began at 25.0% and is currently trading at 20.0%, near the bottom of this range. The most significant price movement was a sharp 10.0 percentage point spike on May 22, 2026, which took the probability from 20.0% to 30.0%. However, the provided context indicates this spike lacks a clear external driver, as historical information points toward the Trump administration previously restricting, not expanding, the H1-B program.

The price action suggests that 20.0% is acting as a key support level and 30.0% as a firm resistance level. The total trading volume of 270 contracts across the market's history is relatively low, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders. The fact that the price has consistently remained in a low-probability channel indicates that the market sentiment is skeptical of a 'YES' outcome. Traders appear to be pricing in a low likelihood of Trump expanding the H1-B program, a sentiment that is consistent with the provided context about his first-term policies which led to higher denial rates and a more restrictive application process.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 22, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 30.0%

**Outcome:** Before 2029

**What happened:** The prediction market price spike on May 22, 2026, indicating an increased probability of Trump expanding the H1-B program, lacks a clear primary driver within the provided research. All available information points to the Trump administration actively restricting the H1-B program around that time, through measures like a $100,000 per-petition fee and a proposed 30% increase in prevailing wage thresholds with public comment ending around May 26, 2026 [[^]](https://www.financialexpress.com/immigration/30-wage-hike-for-h-1b-hiring-indian-workers-could-face-another-hurdle-after-100000-fee/4236711/)[[^]](https://vipseotoolz.com/trump-administration-proposes-massive-h-1b-wage-hikes-as-tech-industry-grapples-with-ai-shifts-and-rising-operational-costs/). There were no reported social media posts from key figures or traditional news announcements suggesting an expansion of the program; instead, policy changes resulted in a 38.5% drop in applications for fiscal year 2027 [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/h1b-visa-applications-drop-uscis-2027-data-11980489)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/uscis/posts/this-years-h-1b-season-is-wrapping-up-and-were-seeing-great-results-from-preside/1410877247752065/). Therefore, the provided web research does not identify social media activity or other external events consistent with an expansionary price movement.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the number of allowable H-1B visas (including the general cap, advanced degree exemptions, or new exemptions/visa types) is increased between the market's issuance and January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on December 19, 2024, and will close by January 20, 2029, at 10:00 am EST, though it can close and pay out early if the "Yes" event occurs before this deadline. Outcome verification is sourced from the Library of Congress.

## Market Discussion

The market discussion strongly indicates that traders do not expect Trump to expand the H1-B program, with the "No" outcome currently favored around 80%. Arguments for "No" highlight Trump's likely policy to shrink or add hurdles to the program, the general Republican party belief that current visa levels are sufficient, and concerns from labor advocates about potential worker exploitation. While Elon Musk's desire for expansion is mentioned, traders largely dismiss its influence on Trump's policy.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before 2029 | 20% | 24% | 20% | $119,526.66 | $17,231.53 |

## How do Donald Trump's recent statements on high-skilled immigration compare with the policies enacted by his 2017-2021 administration?

H-1B Denial Rate Peak | 32% in 2019 (7, 6) [[^]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-h-1b-visa-change-what-know) |
Proposed H-1B Petition Fee | $100,000 (September 2025) (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) [[^]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-h-1b-visa-change-what-know) |
H-1B Program Status during COVID-19 | Suspended (3, 6) [[^]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-h-1b-visa-change-what-know) |

**The Trump administration implemented restrictive H-1B visa policies to protect American jobs**

The Trump administration implemented restrictive H-1B visa policies to protect American jobs. During his 2017-2021 term, Donald Trump's administration enacted policies concerning H-1B visas that included a program suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic aimed at safeguarding American employment [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/02/01/the-story-of-how-trump-officials-tried-to-end-h-1b-visas/). The administration sought to overhaul the H-1B lottery system to prioritize higher-skilled, higher-paid workers and increased minimum wage requirements for visa holders [[^]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-h-1b-visa-change-what-know)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained)[[^]](https://forumtogether.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Explainer-The-Trump-Administrations-New-Rules-Restricting-H-1B-Visas.pdf)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/)[[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/trump-administration-taking-action-tighten-foreign-worker-visa-requirements-protect-american-workers/). This tightening of standards notably led to a rise in H-1B denial rates, escalating from **6%** in 2015 to **32%** in 2019 [[^]](https://forumtogether.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Explainer-The-Trump-Administrations-New-Rules-Restricting-H-1B-Visas.pdf)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/02/01/the-story-of-how-trump-officials-tried-to-end-h-1b-visas/). Furthermore, a substantial one-time fee of **$100,000** for new H-1B petitions was announced in September 2025, intended to deter the use of the program for lower-paid positions [[^]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-h-1b-visa-change-what-know)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/11/12/you-dont-have-certain-talents-trump-defends-need-for-h-1b-visas-in-fox-news-interview/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-suspends-the-entry-of-certain-alien-nonimmigrant-workers/)[[^]](https://www.kff.org/immigrant-health/potential-impacts-of-trump-administration-h-1b-visa-policies-on-the-health-care-and-social-assistance-industries/). Exemptions to these policies were noted for those providing "economic benefit" or serving the "national interest" [[^]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/trump-administration-clarifies-new-green-card-policy-for-h-1b-visa-holders-applications-that-provide-11779721622569.html)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/green-cards-uscis-says-h-1b-visa-workers-may-not-have-to-leave-us-to-apply-11988047)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i-90WWn2Wg).

Donald Trump's recent statements reflect a more favorable view of high-skilled immigration. In contrast to the policies implemented during his earlier administration, Trump has indicated a more positive stance on high-skilled immigration in recent public comments. In December 2024, he expressed that he "always liked the visas" and referred to the H-1B program as a "great program," also suggesting that foreign students graduating from U.S. colleges should automatically receive a green card [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/). Additionally, in November 2025, he publicly stated that H-1B visas are "necessary to bring talented workers to the U.S.," acknowledging a national lack of certain talents and defending the need for skilled foreign workers [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/11/12/you-dont-have-certain-talents-trump-defends-need-for-h-1b-visas-in-fox-news-interview/)[[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-h1b-immigrants-backlash-ingraham-b2863401.html).

## What specific executive orders and DHS rule changes impacting the H1-B program were implemented during the 2017-2021 Trump administration?

Executive Order 13788 Signed | April 18, 2017 [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/) |
DHS Interim Rule Published | October 8, 2020 [[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program) |
Third-Party Placement Validity Limited To | 1 year [[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program) |

**The Trump administration initiated H-1B reforms with "Buy American, Hire American." Executive Order 13788, titled "Buy American and Hire American," was signed on April 18, 2017, and published on April 21, 2017 [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/)[[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2017-04-21/pdf/2017-08311.pdf)[[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-13788-buy-american-and-hire-american)**

The Trump administration initiated H-1B reforms with "Buy American, Hire American." Executive Order 13788, titled "Buy American and Hire American," was signed on April 18, 2017, and published on April 21, 2017 [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/)[[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2017-04-21/pdf/2017-08311.pdf)[[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-13788-buy-american-and-hire-american). This order directed various Secretaries, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), to protect U.S. workers from potential adverse effects caused by H-1B visa holders. It also instructed DHS and other agencies to propose reforms and issue guidance to ensure H-1B visas were primarily awarded to the most-skilled or highest-paid beneficiaries [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/).

DHS implemented new rules to strengthen H-1B visa classification standards. Following this directive, DHS published an interim final rule, "Strengthening the H-1B Nonimmigrant Visa Classification Program," on October 8, 2020, becoming effective on December 7, 2020 [[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program). This rule introduced amendments to 8 CFR 214 governing H-1B visas, revising definitions and standards for "specialty occupation," defining "worksite" and "third-party worksite," and clarifying the "employer-employee relationship" by revising "United States employer" [[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program). Additionally, it mandated corroborating evidence for work in a specialty occupation, restricted the validity of third-party placement petitions to one year, updated itinerary requirements, and codified USCIS H-1B site-visit authority, outlining consequences for non-compliance [[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program). These changes were explicitly intended to constrain third-party worksite arrangements, such as IT-outsourcing models, and to narrow the criteria for qualifying for an H-1B specialty occupation through degree-field alignment [[^]](https://forumtogether.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Explainer-The-Trump-Administrations-New-Rules-Restricting-H-1B-Visas.pdf), though some parts were subsequently blocked by courts before full implementation [[^]](https://www.presidentsalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Overview-of-Trump-Administration-Immigration-Policies-2017-2021.pdf).

Executive actions aimed to protect U.S. workers, not expand the H-1B program. Contrary to any perception of expansion, the specific policy texts of the 2017-2021 executive directive (EO 13788) and the subsequent DHS "Strengthening" rule do not indicate an intent to expand the H-1B program [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/)[[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program)[[^]](https://forumtogether.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Explainer-The-Trump-Administrations-New-Rules-Restricting-H-1B-Visas.pdf). Instead, these actions were framed by sources as measures to protect U.S. workers and enhance program integrity, rather than to increase the statutory H-1B cap [[^]](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-aligning-federal-contracting-hiring-practices-interests-american-workers/)[[^]](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/10/08/2020-22347/strengthening-the-h-1b-nonimmigrant-visa-classification-program)[[^]](https://forumtogether.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Explainer-The-Trump-Administrations-New-Rules-Restricting-H-1B-Visas.pdf).

## What is the feasibility and potential impact of the proposed $100,000 H1-B visa fee under a potential second Trump administration?

Proposed H1-B Visa Fee | $100,000 (via presidential proclamation) [[^]](https://www.cdflaborlaw.com/blog/the-100000-h-1b-fee-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/) |
Previous H1-B Fee Range | $1,700 to $4,500 per petition [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/) |
Indian H1-B Visa Holders | Over 70% of total [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo) |

**The proposed $100,000 H1-B visa fee faces significant legal hurdles and ongoing challenges**

The proposed **$100,000** H1-B visa fee faces significant legal hurdles and ongoing challenges. This fee, enacted through a presidential proclamation, is currently being appealed despite a U.S. District Court Judge ruling against an opposing lawsuit in December 2025 [[^]](https://www.cdflaborlaw.com/blog/the-100000-h-1b-fee-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/). Reportedly, 20 states have challenged the measure, asserting it violates the Administrative Procedure Act [[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/)[[^]](https://www.kff.org/immigrant-health/potential-impacts-of-trump-administration-h-1b-visa-policies-on-the-health-care-and-social-assistance-industries/). The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) have clarified that the fee applies to individuals who do not possess a valid H1-B visa at the time of filing, but it does not apply to petitions for those already in the U.S. seeking a change of status, extension, or amendment of their H1-B visa [[^]](https://www.boundless.com/blog/trump-administration-to-propose-new-100000-fee-for-h-1b-visa-applications)[[^]](https://www.employmentlawworldview.com/understanding-the-new-100000-h-1b-fee-and-its-effect-on-u-s-employers/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo)[[^]](https://www.cdflaborlaw.com/blog/the-100000-h-1b-fee-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont)[[^]](https://www.employmentlawworldview.com/update-to-the-new-100000-h-1b-fee-who-is-exempt-and-who-must-pay/)[[^]](https://www.fisherphillips.com/en/insights/insights/feds-offer-guidance-on-new-100k-h-1b-fee-and-provide-relief-to-many-employers).

This substantial fee increase presents a significant burden for many employers, especially small businesses. It represents a dramatic increase from previous costs, which typically ranged from **$1,700** to **$4,500** per petition [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/100000-h1b-fee-unaffordable-companies/)[[^]](https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/talent-acquisition/trump-100k-fee-h1b-visas-impact-tech-sector). This increased cost creates a particular hardship for startups, small businesses, and employers in crucial sectors such as healthcare and public school systems [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/100000-h1b-fee-unaffordable-companies/)[[^]](https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/talent-acquisition/trump-100k-fee-h1b-visas-impact-tech-sector). Critics argue that the fee could deter highly skilled foreign workers, potentially leading to a "brain drain" as talent considers countries with more favorable visa policies [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inOFya0iQ1k)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo). Such an exodus could negatively impact America's ability to attract and retain talent in critical fields like technology and artificial intelligence, potentially resulting in reduced innovation, delayed projects, and a shift of work to other countries [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/100000-h1b-fee-unaffordable-companies/)[[^]](https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/talent-acquisition/trump-100k-fee-h1b-visas-impact-tech-sector)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo)[[^]](https://www.kff.org/immigrant-health/potential-impacts-of-trump-administration-h-1b-visa-policies-on-the-health-care-and-social-assistance-industries/).

The fee signifies a broader shift towards a more restrictive H1-B program, prioritizing American workers. Over **70%** of H1-B visa holders are Indian citizens, and India's Ministry of External Affairs has expressed concerns regarding the humanitarian consequences [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-100000-dollar-h-1b-visa-fee-impacting-u-s-ability-to-attract-global-talent/)[[^]](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo). The substantial fee increase and heightened scrutiny on applications indicate an intent to make the program more restrictive [[^]](https://www.boundless.com/blog/trump-administration-to-propose-new-100000-fee-for-h-1b-visa-applications)[[^]](https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/talent-acquisition/trump-100k-fee-h1b-visas-impact-tech-sector)[[^]](https://www.vasquezlawnc.com/blog/trump-immigration-policy-1)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Dk3A0nRDo)[[^]](https://www.kff.org/immigrant-health/potential-impacts-of-trump-administration-h-1b-visa-policies-on-the-health-care-and-social-assistance-industries/). Proposed changes also aim to favor higher-paid jobs and potentially specific "U.S. workforce needs" in critical sectors like advanced technology and artificial intelligence, potentially transforming the H1-B into a "luxury work permit" [[^]](https://www.boundless.com/blog/trump-administration-to-propose-new-100000-fee-for-h-1b-visa-applications)[[^]](https://www.jeelani-law.com/h-1b-visas-under-trumps-proposed-changes/)[[^]](https://www.jacksonlewis.com/insights/h-1b-visas-will-trump-20-be-turning-point-employers-needing-skilled-foreign-workers). However, some rule changes have been made to allow more non-profits and government research organizations to qualify as cap-exempt employers and broaden the definition of a U.S. employer to include beneficiary-owned companies, potentially promoting access for entrepreneurs [[^]](https://www.bakerdonelson.com/the-h-1b-visa-process-and-the-second-trump-administration).

## What does USCIS data show regarding H1-B approval rates and Requests for Evidence (RFEs) during fiscal years 2017-2021 compared to 2022-2024?

Peak H-1B RFE Rate | 40.2% in FY 2019 [[^]](https://www.envoyglobal.com/insight/h-1b-requests-for-evidence-explained/) |
H-1B Initial Petition Denial Rate FY 2021 | 4% [[^]](https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/data-from-uscis-shows-declining-approvals-and-higher-rates-of-requests-for-evidence-rfes-for-several-key-employer-sponsored-nonimmigrant-categories/)[[^]](https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/H-1B-Denial-Rates-For-FY-2020-and-the-Impact-of-Court-Decisions.NFAP-Policy-Brief.January-2021-2.pdf) |
Total H-1B Petitions Approved FY 2024 | 399,395 [[^]](https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/ola_signed_h1b_characteristics_congressional_report_FY24.pdf) |

**H-1B Requests for Evidence rates significantly fluctuated between 2017 and 2024**

H-1B Requests for Evidence rates significantly fluctuated between 2017 and 2024. RFE rates saw a substantial increase from fiscal years 2017 to 2019, peaking at **40.2%** in FY 2019 [[^]](https://www.envoyglobal.com/insight/h-1b-requests-for-evidence-explained/). This trend reversed sharply in FY 2020 and FY 2021, with rates falling to **16.2%** by FY 2021 [[^]](https://www.envoyglobal.com/insight/h-1b-requests-for-evidence-explained/). The downward trajectory continued into recent fiscal years, with RFE incidence recorded at **9.6%** in FY 2022, **10.5%** in FY 2023, and **8%** for the 407,625 petitions completed in FY 2024 [[^]](https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/ola_signed_h1b_characteristics_congressional_report_FY24.pdf)[[^]](https://www.envoyglobal.com/insight/h-1b-requests-for-evidence-explained/). These figures indicate a consistent decline in RFEs after the 2019 peak.

H-1B petition denial rates dramatically decreased, increasing approvals. Initial petition denial rates plummeted from **24%** in FY 2018 and **21%** in FY 2019 to just **4%** in FY 2021 [[^]](https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/data-from-uscis-shows-declining-approvals-and-higher-rates-of-requests-for-evidence-rfes-for-several-key-employer-sponsored-nonimmigrant-categories/)[[^]](https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/H-1B-Denial-Rates-For-FY-2020-and-the-Impact-of-Court-Decisions.NFAP-Policy-Brief.January-2021-2.pdf). This significant reduction suggests an improved approval rate for H-1B petitions, likely influenced by legal and policy adjustments implemented after FY 2020 [[^]](https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/data-from-uscis-shows-declining-approvals-and-higher-rates-of-requests-for-evidence-rfes-for-several-key-employer-sponsored-nonimmigrant-categories/)[[^]](https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/H-1B-Denial-Rates-For-FY-2020-and-the-Impact-of-Court-Decisions.NFAP-Policy-Brief.January-2021-2.pdf). In FY 2024, USCIS approved a total of 399,395 H-1B petitions, which included 141,205 initial petitions and 258,190 continuing petitions [[^]](https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/ola_signed_h1b_characteristics_congressional_report_FY24.pdf).

## How might lobbying from tech leaders like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy influence a potential second Trump administration's H1-B policy?

H-1B Expansion Expectation | 17-36% [[^]](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-trump-significantly-expand-hig)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/JSD/conditional-on-trump-being-elected-4sbz0804k6) |
H-1B Per-petition Fee | $100,000 effective 2025 [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://vipseotoolz.com/trump-administration-proposes-massive-h-1b-wage-hikes-as-tech-industry-grapples-with-ai-shifts-and-rising-operational-costs/)[[^]](https://www.financialexpress.com/immigration/30-wage-hike-for-h-1b-hiring-indian-workers-could-face-another-hurdle-after-100000-fee/4236711/)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/05/11/new-immigration-restrictions-on-h-1b-visas-and-students-are-coming/)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/)[[^]](https://www.presidentsalliance.org/support-international-students-and-scholars-amid-current-and-upcoming-actions-new-tools-initiatives/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained) |
H-1B Visa Application Decline | 38% [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained) |

**Expectations for H-1B expansion remain low despite tech leader advocacy**

Expectations for H-1B expansion remain low despite tech leader advocacy. Figures such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy publicly advocate for the H-1B visa program, positioning themselves against restrictionist elements within the MAGA movement, and former President Trump has shown alignment with some tech leaders on immigrant visas [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/h1b-immigration-visas-india-elon-musk-vivek-trump-2006308)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyv7gxp02yo)[[^]](https://abc7ny.com/post/what-are-1b-visas-elon-musk-vivek-ramaswamy-spar-donald-trump-supporters-work/15715514/). However, despite this advocacy, prediction markets and analysts consistently show low expectations for a significant expansion of the H-1B program during a potential second Trump term, with predictions ranging from **17%** to **36%** [[^]](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-trump-significantly-expand-hig)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/JSD/conditional-on-trump-being-elected-4sbz0804k6).

Trump's administration implemented several restrictive H-1B policies. The previous Trump administration has already enacted or proposed multiple restrictive H-1B measures. These include a substantial **$100,000** per-petition fee set to be effective in 2025, a revised lottery system that prioritizes higher salaries, and proposed significant increases to prevailing wage requirements ranging from **21%** to **33%** by May 2026 [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://vipseotoolz.com/trump-administration-proposes-massive-h-1b-wage-hikes-as-tech-industry-grapples-with-ai-shifts-and-rising-operational-costs/)[[^]](https://www.financialexpress.com/immigration/30-wage-hike-for-h-1b-hiring-indian-workers-could-face-another-hurdle-after-100000-fee/4236711/)[[^]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/05/11/new-immigration-restrictions-on-h-1b-visas-and-students-are-coming/)[[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/)[[^]](https://www.presidentsalliance.org/support-international-students-and-scholars-amid-current-and-upcoming-actions-new-tools-initiatives/). Experts have characterized the cumulative impact of these policies as a "sledgehammer," resulting in a reported **38%** decline in H-1B visa applications, which indicates a strong chilling effect rather than any form of expansion [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained).

Entrenched policies make significant H-1B program expansion highly improbable. Consequently, even with continued lobbying efforts from tech leaders, the established pattern of restrictive measures suggests that a second Trump administration is likely to maintain these trends [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained). The consistently low expectations for H-1B expansion observed among analysts and in prediction markets accurately reflect the reality of these entrenched policies, making a significant expansion of the program highly improbable [[^]](https://hindustanherald.in/h-1b-visa-crash-trump-indian-engineers/)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trumps-proposed-changes-to-the-h-1b-visa-program-explained)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-trump-significantly-expand-hig)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/JSD/conditional-on-trump-being-elected-4sbz0804k6).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Trump administration has actively restricted the H-1B program since September 2025 rather than expanding it.** Key measures include a **$100,000** fee for new petitions, a weighted lottery system favoring high-wage/high-skill applicants, and proposed significant increases to prevailing wage requirements [[^]](https://www.financialexpress.com/immigration/30-wage-hike-for-h-1b-hiring-indian-workers-could-face-another-hurdle-after-100000-fee/4236711/)[[^]](https://vipseotoolz.com/trump-administration-proposes-massive-h-1b-wage-hikes-as-tech-industry-grapples-with-ai-shifts-and-rising-operational-costs/)[[^]](https://www.csis.org/analysis/practical-h-1b-reforms-serve-us-economic-interests)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/h1b-visa-applications-drop-uscis-2027-data-11980489)[[^]](https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/h-1b-faq)[[^]](https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/how-the-h-1b-visa-replaces-american-workers)[[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-trump-administration-is-eroding-the-immigrant-talent-pipeline/). These policies have contributed to a **38.5%** decline in properly submitted H-1B applications for the FY2027 lottery, with a shift in approvals toward candidates with advanced U.S. degrees [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/h1b-visa-applications-drop-uscis-2027-data-11980489)[[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-trump-administration-is-eroding-the-immigrant-talent-pipeline/).

**Key takeaway.** Prediction markets consistently reflect a very low **probability** of the H-1B cap being increased or the program being expanded under the current administration, with some markets tracking nearly **0%** **probability** for expansion initiatives [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-increase-cap-on-h-1b-visas-in-first-100-days)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/JSD/conditional-on-trump-being-elected-4sbz0804k6).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 20, 2029
- **Closes:** January 20, 2029

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Trump administration has actively restricted the H-1B program since September 2025 rather than expanding it.
- Key measures include a **$100,000** fee for new petitions, a weighted lottery system favoring high-wage/high-skill applicants, and proposed significant increases to prevailing wage requirements [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- These policies have contributed to a **38.5%** decline in properly submitted H-1B applications for the FY2027 lottery, with a shift in approvals toward candidates with advanced U.S.
- Degrees [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

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