# Total space launches in July

in July 2026

Updated: July 28, 2026

Category: Science and Technology

Tags: Space

HTML: /markets/science-and-technology/space/total-space-launches-in-july/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Above 13 for total space launches in July is **100.0%** probable per the **model** versus **89.0%** by the **market**, suggesting the **market** may not fully reflect 17 U.S.-licensed commercial launches confirmed by July 28, 2026.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - "Above 13" is certain; 17 U.S.-licensed commercial launches confirmed by July 28, 2026.** - Two additional SpaceX launches scheduled, making "Above 17" and "Above 18" highly likely.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**100%**) sees an 11pp gap versus 89c **market**; 19 total launches expected, implying a 1.1x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 14 | 7.0% | 25.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 15 | 1.0% | 23.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 17 | 5.0% | 23.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 14 | 7.0% | 25.6% |
| Above 15 | 1.0% | 23.9% |
| Above 17 | 5.0% | 23.9% |
| Above 16 | 2.0% | 23.9% |
| Above 13 | 89.0% | 100.0% |
| Above 18 | 3.0% | 22.3% |
| Above 19 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Above 20 | 2.0% | 1.0% |

- Expiration: August 7, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has traded in a wide range, from a high of 98.0% to a low of 65.0%, with a general downward trend from its 96.0% opening price. The most significant price action occurred on July 24, when the contract dropped 28.0 percentage points from 93.0% to 65.0%. This sharp decline coincided with social media activity related to successful SpaceX events, including the Starship Flight 13 test. The 65.0% level established on July 24 acted as key support, with the price subsequently recovering to its current level of 89.0%. The contract's high of 98.0% represents the main resistance.

Trading volume provides insight into market conviction. With a total of 5,965 contracts traded, activity was initially light but increased significantly later in the month. Sample data shows volume was negligible until after the July 24 price drop, with a notable increase to 85.68 contracts by July 28. This pattern suggests the sharp price move and subsequent recovery drew in significant liquidity as traders took positions on the increased uncertainty.

The price action suggests that market sentiment began with very high confidence, which was abruptly shaken on July 24. While the market has since regained much of its lost ground, it has not returned to its opening highs. The current price of 89.0% reflects a market that has priced in a high probability of a YES resolution but retains more uncertainty than it did at the start of the period.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 14

#### 📉 July 24, 2026: 51.0pp drop

Price decreased from 76.0% to 25.0%

**What happened:** The 51.0 percentage point drop in the "Total space launches in July: Above 14" prediction market on July 24, 2026, occurred amidst significant social media activity surrounding successful SpaceX launches. Specifically, the Starship Flight 13 integrated test (July 24-25) and a Falcon 9 launch (July 25) served as major social media and industry catalysts [[^]](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-starlink-17-51-b1100-vsfb-ocisly)[[^]](https://keeptrack.space/space-brief/week-in-review-2026-07-26). Despite these positive events, it is plausible that intense social media discourse and expert commentary led to a sharp market re-evaluation, correcting overly optimistic prior expectations for July's total launch count, causing a dramatic decrease in the perceived probability of exceeding 14, even though the month ultimately concluded with 23 successful launches [[^]](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-starlink-17-51-b1100-vsfb-ocisly). Social media activity appears to have coincided with the price move, acting as a contributing accelerant to this market re-calibration.

#### 📈 July 23, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 72.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** The 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Total space launches in July: Above 14" prediction market on July 23, 2026, was primarily driven by a visible increase in actual launch activity during that week. Multiple commercial missions were occurring, and the anticipation of significant events like SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 on July 24 likely increased market confidence that the "Above 14" threshold would be met [[^]](https://keeptrack.space/space-brief/week-in-review-2026-07-26). By July 28, a total of 23 orbital launches had been recorded for July, confirming the outcome [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight). There is no evidence of specific social media activity or a traditional news announcement acting as a direct catalyst for this particular price movement [[^]](https://keeptrack.space/space-brief/week-in-review-2026-07-26). Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.

#### 📈 July 22, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 72.0%

**What happened:** The 15.0 percentage point spike in the "Total space launches in July: Above 14" market on July 22, 2026, was primarily driven by a flurry of confirmed spaceflight activities reported in traditional news. On July 22, OrienSpace successfully launched its Gravity-1 rocket from the East China Sea, delivering nine satellites [[^]](https://orbital-intel.com/news/orienspace-gravity-1-third-flight-nine-satellites-shanghai-sea-launch/)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/local/california/2026/07/22/spacex-rocket-launch-california-milestone-50/90979760007/)[[^]](https://english.news.cn/20260722/b406ccc37e884390b034bf61c7630f28/c.html)[[^]](https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202607/22/WS6a603f8aa310986e2b466a8b.html). This significant event coincided with the report on July 21 that Vandenberg Space Force Base had reached a milestone of 50 total orbital launches for 2026, largely due to SpaceX operations, highlighting an accelerating launch cadence [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/local/california/2026/07/22/spacex-rocket-launch-california-milestone-50/90979760007/). While the high frequency of launches around this date drove significant engagement in general news and social media regarding the 2026 launch cadence [[^]](https://keeptrack.space/space-brief/week-in-review-2026-07-26), no specific viral social media post from a key figure was identified as the primary catalyst. Therefore, traditional news and actual launch confirmations were the primary drivers, with broader social media discussion acting as a contributing accelerant.

#### 📉 July 21, 2026: 34.0pp drop

Price decreased from 91.0% to 57.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research does not indicate a cause for a 34.0 percentage point drop in the "Total space launches in July" prediction market on July 21, 2026. Instead, the space sector experienced a high launch cadence throughout July 2026, culminating in 23 successful orbital launches by month-end, which would typically increase confidence in the "Above 14" outcome [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight), [[^]](https://spacedaily.com/sd-in-july-2026-cambridge-economist-alessio-terzi-and-colleagues-published-the-largest-launch-cost-dataset-ever-assembled-4400-rockets-flown-since-1960-and-projected-that-the-pri/). There is no evidence of social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements in the available sources that would have driven such a negative price movement [[^]](https://spacedaily.com/sd-in-july-2026-cambridge-economist-alessio-terzi-and-colleagues-published-the-largest-launch-cost-dataset-ever-assembled-4400-rockets-flown-since-1960-and-projected-that-the-pri/). Based on the available information, social media activity appears irrelevant to this described price movement, as the movement itself is not supported by the research findings.

### Outcome: Above 16

#### 📉 July 20, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 40.0% to 31.0%

**What happened:** The provided sources do not identify a primary driver for a 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 16" outcome for total July space launches on July 20, 2026. Reports indicate a high launch success rate for July 2026, with 23 successful orbital launches recorded as of July 28, 2026, which would typically cause an increase in the market price for "Above 16" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight). No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements are present in the provided information that would explain a decrease in expected launches [3-7, 9-13]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this stated price movement, as no correlating events are found.

## Contract Snapshot

For contracts such as "Total space launches in July: Above 13," a YES resolution occurs if the total number of space launches in July is greater than 13. Conversely, a NO resolution triggers if the total number of space launches in July is 13 or fewer. This market begins on Friday, July 31, at 12:00 am EDT, and no specific settlement conditions are detailed.

## Market Discussion

As of July 28, 2026, 23 orbital space launches had been recorded for July 2026, with prediction markets assigning high probabilities (up to 89-99%) for SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 to launch by the end of the month [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-spacex-launch-starship-flight-Isn9L2ysPc)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/07/60543563/will-spacexs-next-starship-flight-launch-this-week-crypto-bettors-raise-the-odds-after-new-announcement)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/will-spacex-starship-flight-test-13-launch-by-july-31)[[^]](https://www.amoverview.com/starship-flight-13-tries-again-today-prediction-markets-reveal-launch-odds-after-engine-abort-and-weather-delay/). Public sentiment reflects excitement for landmark events like India's first private orbital launch [[^]](https://digg.com/tech/wiljwdzu)[[^]](https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/social-media-erupts-with-joy-as-vikram-1-makes-historic-success-1971922), but also widespread "launch fatigue" regarding the frequency of routine SpaceX missions [[^]](https://digg.com/tech/1e72lio7)[[^]](https://totallythebomb.com/spacex-launch-coverage-fatigue/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 13 | 87% | 89% | 89% | $7,156.58 | $3,266.68 |
| Above 14 | 7% | 8% | 7% | $32,906.37 | $12,445.01 |
| Above 15 | 1% | 2% | 1% | $30,559.96 | $7,459.75 |
| Above 16 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $7,627.76 | $2,751.62 |
| Above 17 | 0% | 3% | 5% | $7,846.83 | $2,596.13 |
| Above 18 | 0% | 2% | 3% | $4,238.74 | $1,479.25 |
| Above 19 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $474.05 | $402.43 |
| Above 20 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $177.71 | $146.71 |

## What explains the discrepancy in total 2026 launch counts between sources like Wikipedia and space-tracking databases like CelesTrak as of late July 2026?

Wikipedia Launch Criteria | Mission-based success/failure, reaching or intended to reach Kármán line [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Spaceflight/Timeline_of_spaceflight_working_group) |
CelesTrak Launch Criteria | Objects identified in orbit (satellites, rocket bodies, debris) [[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/CelesTrak)[[^]](https://www.space-track.org/documentation) |
Primary Cause of Discrepancy | Differing methodologies for defining and tracking a 'launch' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php) |

**Discrepancies in 2026 launch counts stem from varying definition of 'launch'**

Discrepancies in 2026 launch counts stem from varying definition of 'launch'. Sources like Wikipedia and space-tracking databases such as CelesTrak show differing total 2026 spaceflight launch counts due to their distinct methodologies for defining and tracking a 'launch' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php). Wikipedia focuses on mission-based success or failure, whereas CelesTrak tracks objects identified in orbit [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/CelesTrak)[[^]](https://www.space-track.org/documentation).

Wikipedia counts mission attempts, CelesTrak tracks orbiting objects. Wikipedia's 2026 spaceflight launch count encompasses all successful orbital launch attempts, including those intended to reach the Kármán line, using community-curated records that frequently account for failed attempts and specific mission categorizations [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Spaceflight/Timeline_of_spaceflight_working_group). In contrast, CelesTrak's SATCAT Boxscore relies on the Satellite Catalog from Space-Track.org, which monitors objects already in orbit, such as satellites, rocket bodies, and debris [[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/CelesTrak)[[^]](https://www.space-track.org/documentation).

CelesTrak's object identification method can miss certain launches. This means CelesTrak reflects launch manifests based on object identification rather than a mission-centric count of rocket liftoffs [[^]](http://www.celestrak.org/satcat/boxscore.php)[[^]](https://www.space-track.org/documentation). Consequently, CelesTrak/Space-Track data may not account for some failed launches that never placed objects into a trackable orbit, which Wikipedia and similar databases prioritize within their mission-based metrics [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://launchreport.neocities.org/slr2026.txt)[[^]](https://spaceodysseyhub.com/state-of-space/2026)[[^]](https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/launch/index.html). Additionally, suborbital launches are generally excluded from standard 'orbital launch' statistics unless explicitly stated, further contributing to definitional confusion across sources [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Spaceflight/Timeline_of_spaceflight_working_group)[[^]](https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/launch/index.html).

## What was the market share of total orbital launches in July 2026 between SpaceX, China's CASC, and other international providers?

Total Orbital Launches (as of July 28, 2026) | 23 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%80%93September_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches) |
SpaceX Market Share (as of July 28, 2026) | approximately 60.87% [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%80%93September_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches) |
CASC Market Share (as of July 28, 2026) | approximately 30.43% [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%80%93September_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches) |

**SpaceX dominates orbital launches with over 60% market share**

SpaceX dominates orbital launches with over **60%** **market** share. As of July 28, 2026, 23 orbital launches have been recorded for the month [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches). SpaceX conducted 14 of these missions, securing approximately **60.87%** of the total **market** share [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=tracers). China's CASC followed with 7 confirmed orbital launches, representing about **30.43%** of the **market** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://orbital-intel.com/news/orienspace-gravity-1-third-flight-nine-satellites-shanghai-sea-launch/). The remaining 2 orbital launches, contributing approximately **8.70%** to the total, were carried out by other international providers, including Orienspace's mission [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches).

Further launches may shift **market** share by month's end. Both SpaceX and CASC have additional missions potentially scheduled before the end of July. SpaceX has launches planned for July 29 and 30, which could raise their monthly total to 16 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=tracers). Similarly, CASC has indicated potential launches on July 29 and 30, which could bring their total to 9 for the month [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%**80%**93September_2026)[[^]](https://orbital-intel.com/news/orienspace-gravity-1-third-flight-nine-satellites-shanghai-sea-launch/). However, the specific final **market** share distribution for the entire month of July 2026, should these additional missions be completed, has not been detailed in the provided information.

## What impact did SpaceX's successful Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026, have on the planned launch schedule for Starlink satellites in Q3 2026?

Starship Flight 13 Date | July 24, 2026 [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13)[[^]](https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8279/) |
Starlink V3 Satellites on Flight 13 | 20 [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13)[[^]](https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8279/) |
Operational Starlink Constellation Impact | None [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13)[[^]](https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8279/) |

**SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 did not affect Starlink's operational deployment**

SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 did not affect Starlink's operational deployment. The test flight, conducted on July 24, 2026, deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites into a suborbital trajectory [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13). These satellites were consequently expected to demise upon reentry, ensuring no impact on the operational deployment schedule of the main Starlink constellation [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13)[[^]](https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8279/).

The Q3 2026 Starlink launch schedule remained active and unaffected. Routine Falcon 9 Starlink missions continued throughout July and into August 2026, adhering to the planned schedule. In July 2026, a total of 13 SpaceX space launch events were documented, including Starship Flight 13, assuming all scheduled missions proceeded as planned [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/nrol-97)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-10-32)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-6-80).

## Where can traders find the most reliable manifests for planned orbital launches from the FAA and international agencies for the second half of 2026?

FAA Launch Manifest | Does not publish a live commercial launch manifest [[^]](https://www.faa.gov/space)[[^]](https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship) |
Primary Launch Drivers (as of July 2026) | SpaceX and CASC (China) [[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=crs-27-mission) |
Projected Orbital Missions (2026) | Exceeding 250 [[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=crs-27-mission) |

**Traders find launch manifests through specialized platforms, not the FAA**

Traders find launch manifests through specialized platforms, not the FAA. The FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation website primarily focuses on licensing and safety oversight, and therefore does not publish a live manifest of commercial orbital missions [[^]](https://www.faa.gov/space)[[^]](https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship). Consequently, traders and analysts rely on dedicated spaceflight news platforms and aggregators for real-time tracking of planned launches [[^]](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/)[[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://spaceflightnow.com/). Key sources for reliable and up-to-date information include Spaceflight Now and RocketLaunch.org, as well as community-driven databases like The Space Devs (Launch Library 2 API) and NASASpaceFlight forums [[^]](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/)[[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://spaceflightnow.com/).

High launch cadence requires real-time monitoring due to frequent delays. As of July 28, 2026, the orbital launch cadence remains notably high, largely driven by significant activity from SpaceX and CASC (China), with industry projections for the year anticipated to exceed 250 orbital missions [[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=crs-27-mission). Given that launch schedules are inherently dynamic and frequently subject to delays, continuous, aggregator-based monitoring is essential for traders tracking this sector [[^]](https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-schedule-2026)[[^]](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=crs-27-mission).

## How did early-2026 launch manifests from major providers like SpaceX and ULA compare to the actual number of launches executed by July 2026?

Total Launches by July 23, 2026 | 16 [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi) |
SpaceX Launches by July 23, 2026 | 13 [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi) |
SpaceX Share of Launches | approximately 80% [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi) |

**Sixteen qualifying space launches completed by July 23, 2026**

Sixteen qualifying space launches completed by July 23, 2026. A total of 16 qualifying space launches were successfully executed by this date [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi). SpaceX was the primary contributor, accounting for 13 missions, which constituted approximately **80%** of all launches during this period [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi). The remaining missions were conducted by Rocket Lab and United Launch Alliance (ULA) [[^]](https://yanuki.com/article/space/launches-and-spacecraft/july-2026-rocket-launch-schedule-cape-canaveral)[[^]](https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/florida/heres-the-list-of-all-2026-rocket-launches-from-cape-canaveral-florida/).

ULA concluded its Atlas V operations, while SpaceX maintained a rapid schedule. United Launch Alliance (ULA) notably completed its final Atlas V 551 mission on July 2, 2026 [[^]](https://yanuki.com/article/space/launches-and-spacecraft/july-2026-rocket-launch-schedule-cape-canaveral)[[^]](https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/florida/heres-the-list-of-all-2026-rocket-launches-from-cape-canaveral-florida/). Meanwhile, SpaceX maintained a high-cadence launch schedule throughout July 2026, encompassing multiple Starlink missions, a Starship flight test, and the MRV-MEP mission, with additional launches planned later in the month [[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-16)[[^]](https://www.spacexstats.app/)[[^]](https://www.spacex.com/launches/ussf-234).

High U.S. commercial launch frequency impacted prediction markets. The pace of U.S. commercial launches, particularly SpaceX's dominant activity, significantly influenced sentiment within prediction markets focused on July's total space launches [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlaunches/total-commercial-launches/kxlaunches-26jul)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXLAUNCHES-26JUL)[[^]](https://predictionodds.xyz/event/kalshi/KXLAUNCHES-26JUL)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/predictions/event/KXLAUNCHES-26JUL)[[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/how-many-space-launches-month-july-kalshi).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Prediction markets show strong bullish sentiment for SpaceX (SPCX) stock, with probabilities between 75% and 96% for the stock closing above $100 by July 31 [[^]](https://finbold.com/crypto-markets-predict-spacex-stock-for-end-of-july-2026/)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/spcx-above-100-on-july-31-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/spcx-above-in-july-2026).** This **market** outlook appears to discount concerns about potential nationalization by the U.S. government, an event to which betting markets assign a **4%** **probability** by early 2027 [[^]](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/24/will-trump-nationalize-spacex-heres-what-betting-m/).

**Several operational and financial catalysts are upcoming.** The NROL-95 mission is scheduled for July 30, alongside further Starlink deployments [[^]](https://finbold.com/crypto-markets-predict-spacex-stock-for-end-of-july-2026/)[[^]](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/)[[^]](https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/). The FAA closed the Starship Flight 12 mishap investigation on July 13, 2026, with a pre-mission advisory issued on July 16, 2026, for Starship Flight 13, scheduled for July 17, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=07162026&advn=123)[[^]](https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/statements/general-statements). Additionally, the company's first public earnings report is scheduled for August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://finbold.com/crypto-markets-predict-spacex-stock-for-end-of-july-2026/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 07, 2026
- **Closes:** August 07, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Prediction markets show strong bullish sentiment for SpaceX (SPCX) stock, with probabilities between **75%** and **96%** for the stock closing above **$100** by July 31 [^] [^] [^] .
- This **market** outlook appears to discount concerns about potential nationalization by the U.S.
- Government, an event to which betting markets assign a **4%** **probability** by early 2027 [^] .
- Several operational and financial catalysts are upcoming.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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