# First Four: Texas vs NC St. TEX at NCST (Mar 17) Updated: March 18, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Basketball HTML: /markets/sports/basketball/first-four-texas-vs-nc-st/ ## Short Answer **The model identifies NC St.** as the most likely outcome with a **79.0%** **probability**, significantly higher than the **market**'s **30.0%**. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Texas holds an early 29-23 lead in the first half.** - NC State was the pre-game 1.5-point betting favorite. - Real-time analytics models heavily favor an NC State victory. - NC State trails while favored, an unfamiliar situation recently. - NC State's 3-point shooting is a noted offensive strength. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** estimates **79%** **probability** versus 30c **market** price, implying a 3.3x payout multiple if correct. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 30.0% | 79.0% | Model higher by 49.0pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 79.0% (Yes) - Market Probability: 30.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +49.0pp - Expected Return: +163.3% - R-Score: 7.00 - Total Volume: $4,673,463 - 24h Volume: $4,107,634 - Open Interest: $3,812,065 - Expiration: March 31, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market, which will resolve to "YES" if NC State wins, opened at 50.0%, indicating an initial market sentiment of a toss-up. The price briefly climbed to a peak of 52.0% on March 17th before a significant downward movement. The most notable event was a sharp 18.0 percentage point drop to the current price of 34.0%. This price collapse directly correlates with live developments in the basketball game. As Texas established a 29-23 lead late in the first half, traders reacted swiftly, selling off shares of the NC State contract and driving its perceived probability of winning down substantially. The trading volume provides strong confirmation of the market's conviction. Volume was relatively low in the pre-game period but surged to over 1.2 million contracts during the major price decline. This massive increase in volume concurrent with the price drop indicates a high degree of confidence among participants that Texas's in-game lead was a significant, likely decisive, factor. The initial price near 50.0% acted as a baseline before the game, with 52.0% serving as temporary resistance. The current price of 34.0% has become the new key level, reflecting the market's updated, pessimistic sentiment regarding an NC State victory based on the live score. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 March 18, 2026: 19.0pp spike Price increased from 49.0% to 68.0% **Outcome:** Texas **What happened:** The provided web research did not uncover any evidence of a 19.0 percentage point spike in a prediction market for the "Texas" outcome in the "First Four: Texas vs NC St." market on March 18, 2026 [Web research]. The available sources detail the NCAA First Four game between Texas and NC State on March 17-18, 2026, providing live scores and player statistics, but none mention prediction markets, price movements, or any related social media activity [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058). Consequently, no primary driver for the described price movement, including social media activity, could be identified from the given information [Web research]. Based on the comprehensive lack of findings regarding the market movement itself, social media was (d) irrelevant. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to **Yes** if Texas wins the men's college basketball game against NC St., originally scheduled for March 17, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to **No** if Texas does not win this game, as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on March 15, 2026, at 7:15pm EDT and will close after a winner is declared, or by March 31, 2026, at 1:00pm EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open for up to two weeks; if cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, it will resolve to a fair price for each team. ## Market Discussion Traders are actively discussing NC State's poor performance during the live game, with comments like "way to shit the bed nc" and "damn nc state looks like 💩." Observations note NC State "not finishing at the rim," suggesting the game should be tied despite their struggles. There isn't a strong consensus for NC State to turn it around, with traders holding "Yes" on NC State acknowledging they "best get busy." ## Did NC State Trail at Halftime When Favored in Recent Seasons? Games Favored & Trailing Halftime (2024-26) | 0 [[^]](https://gopack.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2025-26/north-carolina/boxscore/24218) | Second-Half Point Differential (Favored & Trailing) | Undefined (no applicable data) [[^]](https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/basketball/nc-state-basketball-second-half-excites-kevin-keatts-11-14-24) | Outright Win Percentage (Favored & Trailing) | Undefined (no applicable data) [[^]](https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/basketball/nc-state-basketball-second-half-excites-kevin-keatts-11-14-24) | **NC State had no qualifying games in the past two seasons** NC State had no qualifying games in the past two seasons. Over the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, NC State, under coach Kevin Keatts, had no recorded instances where the team was the betting favorite and simultaneously trailed at halftime [[^]](https://gopack.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2025-26/north-carolina/boxscore/24218). This indicates a complete absence of games matching these specific criteria during the specified two-season period. No data exists to calculate second-half performance metrics. Consequently, it is not possible to determine historical statistics for NC State, such as the second-half point differential or the outright win percentage, when favored but trailing at halftime in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. The absence of any applicable games directly prevents the calculation of these specific performance metrics. ## Is Max Abmas on the Texas Longhorns 2025-26 roster? Max Abmas 2025-26 Roster Status | Not on Texas Longhorns' roster [[^]](http://www.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/251) | Texas Longhorns 2025-26 Leading Scorer | Dailyn Swain [[^]](http://www.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/251) | Max Abmas Recent Reported Activity | NBA participation (2024-25 season) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4432932/max-abmas) | **Max Abmas is not on the 2025-26 Texas Longhorns roster** Max Abmas is not on the 2025-26 Texas Longhorns roster. Max Abmas is not listed on the Texas Longhorns' current roster for the 2025-26 men's college basketball season [[^]](http://www.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/251). Consequently, there is no available data to assess how Texas's offensive and defensive efficiency (points per possession) would change when he is off the floor due to foul trouble (3+ fouls) during this specific season [[^]](http://www.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/251). Abmas is no longer playing college basketball for the Longhorns. His most recent reported statistics from the 2024-25 season indicate his participation in the NBA, rather than college basketball [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4432932/max-abmas). For the 2025-26 season, Dailyn Swain is identified as the leading scorer for the Texas Longhorns [[^]](http://www.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/251). The team is scheduled to compete against NC State in a First Four matchup on March 17, 2026 [[^]](http://auth.cbssports.com/college-basketball/gametracker/playbyplay/NCAAB_20260317_TEXAS@NCST/). ## Can Texas's eFG% Second Half Regression Be Assessed? Texas First Half eFG% (March 17, 2026) | Not available for the current game against NC State [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058) | Texas Season Average eFG% (road/neutral) | Specific season average in road or neutral site games not available [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058) | Shot Quality and Location Data | Detailed shot quality and location data not available [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058) | **Assessing likelihood of negative regression is currently impossible** Assessing likelihood of negative regression is currently impossible. Specific statistical data concerning Texas's effective field goal percentage (eFG%) for the first half of their current game against NC State, their season average eFG% in road or neutral site games, and detailed shot quality and location data are currently unavailable in the provided research [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058). Consequently, it is not possible to perform the requested comparison or determine the likelihood of a negative regression to the mean in the second half for Texas. Specific data points are essential for accurate analysis. A comprehensive analysis to evaluate the likelihood of negative regression to the mean in the second half for Texas's eFG% would require these precise data points. To accurately compare Texas's eFG% from the first half of the March 17, 2026, game against NC State to their season average in road/neutral site games, and to evaluate shot quality and location, detailed statistical breakdowns are essential. However, the available sources, including live score updates, team statistics pages, and game previews, do not provide the necessary first-half eFG% for the ongoing game or granular shot quality and location data [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-4-texas-longhorns-vs-nc-state-wolfpack-mar-17-2026-game-boxscore-264058). ## What are Texas and NC State bench unit plus-minus and scoring margins? Bench Unit Plus-Minus (last 10 games) | Data not found for Texas or NC State [Web Research Results] [[^]](https://cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NCST/nc-state-wolfpack/stats/?sortcol=mpg&sortdir=ascending&table=TeamStatsTableCollegebasketball-PlayerStats-Scoring) | NC State Top Two Reserves Scoring Margin Change | Specific statistics not found [Web Research Results] [[^]](https://cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NCST/nc-state-wolfpack/stats/?sortcol=mpg&sortdir=ascending&table=TeamStatsTableCollegebasketball-PlayerStats-Scoring) | Research Data Sufficiency | Insufficient for specific bench metrics [Web Research Results] [[^]](https://cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NCST/nc-state-wolfpack/stats/?sortcol=mpg&sortdir=ascending&table=TeamStatsTableCollegebasketball-PlayerStats-Scoring) | **The research did not provide specific bench unit performance data** The research did not provide specific bench unit performance data. The conducted research does not explicitly state which team's bench unit, Texas or NC State, has a higher plus-minus rating over their last 10 games. Additionally, the research does not detail the typical scoring margin change for NC State when their top two reserves are on the court together. General statistics were insufficient to answer the specific query. General team and player statistics for NC State [[^]](https://cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NCST/nc-state-wolfpack/stats/?sortcol=mpg&sortdir=ascending&table=TeamStatsTableCollegebasketball-PlayerStats-Scoring) and Texas [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/TEXAS/texas-longhorns/stats/regular/?sortcol=mpg&sortdir=descending&table=TeamStatsTableCollegebasketball-PlayerStats-Scoring) were available, and articles discussed the impact or need for improvement from various players and benches [[^]](http://fantasysports.blog.statesman.com/sports/college/longhorns/mens-basketball/article/texas-longhorns-sean-miller-kentucky-wildcats-21304498.php). However, none of these sources presented the specific aggregated bench plus-minus data over a defined period or the detailed scoring margin analysis for specific reserve combinations. Consequently, it is not possible to answer either part of the question with specific facts, data points, or statistics. The collected evidence is insufficient to determine the bench plus-minus comparison or the scoring margin change for NC State's top two reserves. ## Why Do NC State's Betting Odds Differ from Analytics Models? NC State Implied Win Probability | 42.6% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/cbb/cbb-ncst-tx-2026-03-17) | Real-Time Analytics Win Probability | 71.7% [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state) | Current Game Score (4:06 1st half) | Texas 29, NC State 23 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state) | **NC State's live moneyline currently shows a significant market discount for victory** NC State's live moneyline currently shows a significant **market** discount for victory. The in-game moneyline for an NC State win is trading at +135 odds, which implies a **42.6%** **probability** of success [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/cbb/cbb-ncst-tx-2026-03-17). This **market**-implied **probability** is notably lower than the **71.7%** win **probability** calculated by real-time analytics models, such as those from ESPN, which account for current game conditions [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state). Current game conditions reveal a notable disparity in win probabilities. As of 4:06 in the first half, Texas is leading NC State 29-23 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state). Despite the current score, sophisticated analytical models still project a **71.7%** likelihood of an NC State victory [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state). This discrepancy indicates that the **market** is offering a substantial discount on an NC State win, suggesting a much lower perceived **probability** than what advanced statistical models, factoring in real-time game dynamics, would suggest [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401856434/texas-nc-state). ## What Could Change the Odds **The upcoming First Four game between Texas and NC State on March 17, 2026, at 9:15 p.m [[^]](https://www.app.com/story/sports/college/2026/03/15/nc-state-vs-texas-prediction-pick-odds-march-madness-first-round/89147049007/).** ET in Dayton, OH, is a pivotal event [[^]](https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/texas-vs-n-c-state-odds-prediction-2026-ncaa-tournament-picks-from-proven-**model**/). Polymarket currently assigns NC State a **52%** **probability** of winning, aligning with sportsbook odds that place NC State as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 158.5 points [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/texas-nc-state-odds-march-17-2026-2518323). Potential bullish catalysts for either team include their offensive prowess [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-predictions-ncaa-bracket-expert-picks/). Both teams boast elite offenses, ranking within the top 30 nationally in points per possession [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/texas-nc-state-odds-prediction-spread-line-start-time-2026-first-four-picks/). NC State, specifically, could see an upside due to its strong three-point shooting capabilities, which could be a significant factor in their performance [[^]](https://www.covers.com/ncaab/march-madness/texas-vs-nc-state-predictions-picks-odds-tuesday-3-17-2026). Conversely, several bearish factors could impact the **market** [[^]](https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/basketball/article/march-madness-2026-schedule-22080655.php). Both Texas and NC State have demonstrated recent struggles, having lost five of their last six games leading into this matchup [[^]](https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2026-03-15/tip-times-and-teams-2026-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-first-four-and-first). Furthermore, both teams are characterized by poor defensive play, which could lead to a high-scoring but unpredictable contest [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/cbb/cbb-ncst-tx-2026-03-17). The winner of this game is scheduled to face BYU on March 19, adding another layer of future **market** impact [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/college-basketball/events/texas-at-nc-st-mar-17-2026/). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** March 31, 2026 - **Closes:** March 31, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - The upcoming First Four game between Texas and NC State on March 17, 2026, at 9:15 p.m [^] . - ET in Dayton, OH, is a pivotal event [^] . - Polymarket currently assigns NC State a **52%** **probability** of winning, aligning with sportsbook odds that place NC State as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 158.5 points [^] . - Potential bullish catalysts for either team include their offensive prowess [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks](/markets/sports/aussie-rules/adelaide-crows-vs-hawthorn-hawks/) - [Djurgarden vs Sirius](/markets/sports/soccer/djurgarden-vs-sirius/) - [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR17WYOWICH-WYO: NO (Mar 18, 2026) - KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR17WYOWICH-WICH: YES (Mar 18, 2026) - KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR17LIBGMU-LIB: YES (Mar 18, 2026) - KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR17LIBGMU-GMU: NO (Mar 18, 2026) - KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR17UNCWYALE-YALE: NO (Mar 18, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/basketball/first-four-texas-vs-nc-st If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.