# U.S. Open: Round 1 Scores

U.S. Open Round 1

Updated: June 18, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-round-1-scores/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Since last update (about an hour ago): Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes: model declined 39.5pp as the market-led edge flipped significantly.** - Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes: **model**-led 39.5pp drop widened the edge versus **market**.
- Headline **model** **probability** fell 13.5pp, widening the edge to -13.4pp against the **market**.
- Harris English under 74.5 strokes: **model** dropped 11.2pp as the **market**-led edge flipped notably.

**- - Shinnecock Hills' historical data indicates exceptionally difficult first-round scoring.** - Shooting under low score thresholds at Shinnecock Hills appears consistently challenging.
- Rory McIlroy struggled significantly at Shinnecock Hills, missing the cut in 2018.
- Jon Rahm also experienced significant difficulty, missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
- Scottie Scheffler's **market** position is bolstered by elite Strokes Gained statistics.
- The U.S. Open first round occurs on Thursday, June 18, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 46c, the **market** prices higher than the **32.6%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation given Shinnecock Hills' historical difficulty.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 46.0% | 32.6% | The exceptionally difficult Shinnecock Hills course makes shooting under 71.5 strokes challenging. |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 44.0% | Historical scoring data indicates Shinnecock Hills is an exceptionally difficult course for low scores. |
| R1: Bryson DeChambeau under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 44.0% | Historical scoring data indicates Shinnecock Hills is an exceptionally difficult course for low scores. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 46.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Bryson DeChambeau under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Patrick Reed under 72.5 strokes | 42.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Rory McIlroy under 71.5 strokes | 38.0% | 22.9% |
| R1: Cameron Smith under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Michael Brennan under 74.5 strokes | 51.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Tyrrell Hatton under 72.5 strokes | 37.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Chris Gotterup under 73.5 strokes | 53.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Matt Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 57.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Sam Burns under 72.5 strokes | 40.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: J.J. Spaun under 73.5 strokes | 52.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Sahith Theegala under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Sungjae Im under 73.5 strokes | 37.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Michael Kim under 73.5 strokes | 43.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Tommy Fleetwood under 72.5 strokes | 46.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Jacob Bridgeman under 74.5 strokes | 58.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Billy Horschel under 74.5 strokes | 41.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ludvig Aberg under 72.5 strokes | 44.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Nicolai Hojgaard under 74.5 strokes | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Rickie Fowler under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Si Woo Kim under 73.5 strokes | 58.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: William Mouw under 75.5 strokes | 61.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Daniel Berger under 74.5 strokes | 55.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ryan Gerard under 74.5 strokes | 62.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Cameron Young under 72.5 strokes | 46.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Kurt Kitayama under 74.5 strokes | 60.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: David Puig under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Robert MacIntyre under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Justin Thomas under 73.5 strokes | 47.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Max McGreevy under 74.5 strokes | 49.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Collin Morikawa under 73.5 strokes | 51.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Corey Conners under 74.5 strokes | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Harry Hall under 74.5 strokes | 54.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ryan Fox under 74.5 strokes | 55.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Chris Kirk under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Maverick McNealy under 73.5 strokes | 50.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Justin Rose under 73.5 strokes | 45.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Brian Harman under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Wyndham Clark under 72.5 strokes | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Adam Scott under 74.5 strokes | 60.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Keith Mitchell under 73.5 strokes | 45.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Russell Henley under 72.5 strokes | 37.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Jackson Koivun under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes | 45.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Ben Griffin under 73.5 strokes | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Nick Taylor under 74.5 strokes | 58.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Kristoffer Reitan under 73.5 strokes | 49.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Jon Rahm under 72.5 strokes | 42.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Dustin Johnson under 74.5 strokes | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Graeme McDowell under 75.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jake Knapp under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Jordan Spieth under 73.5 strokes | 39.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Keegan Bradley under 73.5 strokes | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Zac Blair under 75.5 strokes | 51.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Aaron Rai under 73.5 strokes | 38.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Kevin Roy under 75.5 strokes | 50.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: James Nicholas under 75.5 strokes | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Hideki Matsuyama under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Cooper Dossey under 75.5 strokes | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Carl Yuan under 75.5 strokes | 9.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Lucas Herbert under 74.5 strokes | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Rocco Repetto Taylor under 75.5 strokes | 30.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Caleb Surratt under 75.5 strokes | 45.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Sudarshan Yellamaraju under 74.5 strokes | 45.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Marcelo Rozo under 75.5 strokes | 38.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Hennie Du Plessis under 75.5 strokes | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Angel Hidalgo under 75.5 strokes | 35.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Laurie Canter under 74.5 strokes | 35.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: John Parry under 76.5 strokes | 60.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Min Woo Lee under 73.5 strokes | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Alex Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 46.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Padraig Harrington under 75.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Emiliano Grillo under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Harry Higgs under 75.5 strokes | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Taylor Montgomery under 74.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Alex Smalley under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Sam Stevens under 74.5 strokes | 57.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: John Keefer under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Harris English under 74.5 strokes | 61.0% | 47.1% |
| R1: Shane Lowry under 73.5 strokes | 45.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Andrew Putnam under 74.5 strokes | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Viktor Hovland under 72.5 strokes | 30.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Nick Hardy under 75.5 strokes | 57.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Nicolas Echavarria under 73.5 strokes | 38.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Sepp Straka under 72.5 strokes | 33.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Joaquin Niemann under 73.5 strokes | 43.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Pierceson Coody under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jason Day under 73.5 strokes | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Manav Shah under 78.5 strokes | 6.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jackson Suber under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Bryan Lee under 75.5 strokes | 25.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Patrick Cantlay under 72.5 strokes | 37.0% | 32.6% |
| R1: Jayden Trey Schaper under 74.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Max Greyserman under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Alejandro Tosti under 75.5 strokes | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Alex Noren under 74.5 strokes | 60.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matti Schmid under 74.5 strokes | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| R1: Ryo Hisatsune under 73.5 strokes | 39.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Matthew Jordan under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Bud Cauley under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Jimmy Stanger under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Carlos Ortiz under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ben Kohles under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Marek Fleming under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Adrien Saddier under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Brandon Wu under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ugo Coussaud under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Arni Sveinsson under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Vaughn Harber under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matthew McCarty under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: J.T. Poston under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Kaito Onishi under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Akshay Bhatia under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Ryder Cowan under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Taihei Sato under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jake Sollon under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Mateo Pulcini under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jackson Herrington under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Mason Howell under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jake Peacock under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Patrick Rodgers under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Dylan Wu under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Spencer Tibbits under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jackson Van Paris under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Nathan Kimsey under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Greyson Leach under 78.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Logan Reilly under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jackson Ormond under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Eric Lee under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Giuseppe Puebla under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Neal Shipley under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: J.B. Holmes under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Niklas Norgaard Moller under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Tom Kim under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Cole Hammer under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Andrew Novak under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Chandler Phillips under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Hamilton Coleman under 80.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jack Schoenberger under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Filippo Celli under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Peter Uihlein under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 47.1% |
| R1: Gary Woodland under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 36.2% |
| R1: Ben Silverman under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 47.1% |
| R1: Ryuichi Oiwa under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: T.K. Kim under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Robbie Higgins under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Benjamin James under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 47.1% |
| R1: Adrien Dumont De Chassart under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Ethan Fang under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 44.0% |
| R1: Brandon Holtz under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matthew Robles under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Davis Thompson under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 32.6% |

- Expiration: July 4, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market experienced a dramatic upward trend, beginning at a 0.0% probability and quickly establishing a trading range in the mid-to-high 40s. The most significant price movement was a sharp 49.0 percentage point spike on June 16. This surge directly followed what appears to be the official announcement of Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 tee time for the championship. This news release likely acted as a catalyst, transforming a dormant market into an active one and causing a fundamental re-evaluation of the contract's probability.

Following the initial spike, the price has consolidated slightly, trading between 46.0% and a peak of 54.0%, suggesting a potential resistance level near the highs and a support level in the mid-40s. Trading volume, which was nonexistent before the price surge, became substantial on June 18, indicating high conviction among traders at these new price levels. The sustained high price and significant trading volume suggest that market sentiment has shifted decisively. The market now assigns a substantial probability to the event in question, a sharp contrast to the initial 0.0% valuation before the tee times were known.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes

#### 📈 June 17, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 45.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 45.0 percentage point spike on June 17, 2026, for "R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes" was a traditional news analysis. A PGA TOUR article titled "Horses for Courses" published on June 17, 2026, highlighted Xander Schauffele as a strong candidate due to his consistency in majors and suitability for the "windy, difficult Shinnecock Hills" [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice). This positive pre-tournament assessment, released a day before the 2026 U.S. Open Round 1 officially began on June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/xander-schauffele-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026), likely increased bettors' confidence in him scoring under 72.5 strokes. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was irrelevant.

### Outcome: R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes

#### 📈 June 16, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 49.0 percentage point spike on June 16, 2026, appears to be the official announcement of Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 tee time for the 2026 U.S. Open [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/16/us-open-tee-times-2026-shinnecock-round-1-2-pairings-groupings-starting-times-thursday-friday-scheffler)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/2026-us-open-thursday-tee-times-round-1/)[[^]](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/c4gy8lplly6o). This traditional news, released two days before the tournament's start, likely catalyzed a significant market re-evaluation, aligning probabilities more closely with Scheffler's status as the world's #1 ranked golfer [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). No specific social media activity or detailed practice round reports explicitly explaining such a drastic movement were found within the provided sources [7-11]. Social media was irrelevant to this price movement.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Jon Rahm records under 72.5 strokes in Round 1 of the 2026 U.S. Open, and "No" if he records 72.5 strokes or more. Trading opens on June 16, 2026, at 1:00 pm EDT and closes after Round 1 is completed, or by July 3, 2026, at 10:00 pm EDT. If Jon Rahm does not complete Round 1, the market will resolve to a fair market price at the time of his withdrawal.

## Market Discussion

The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to commence on June 18, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/37633/13554329/us-open-2026-leaderboard-latest-golf-scores-from-shinnecock-hills-in-new-york-and-tee-times-for-third-mens-golf-major)[[^]](https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/golf/pga/us-open/). As of June 18, 2026, the first round is either just beginning or in progress, so no finalized Round 1 scores are currently available [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/31000097/u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/us-open-pga-tour-jun-18-2026-leaderboard-4800?tab=leaderboard). Ahead of the tournament, prediction markets and rankings widely identify Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to win, followed by Rory McIlroy, with social media commentary highlighting anticipated challenging conditions at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://deadspin.com/prediction-markets/trending/us-open-golf-predictions-hole-in-one-make-the-cut-and-other-markets-available/)[[^]](https://us.headtopics.com/news/scottie-scheffler-tops-u-s-open-odds-from-kalshi-84504925)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Akshay Bhatia under 74.5 strokes | 52% | 57% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Adrien Dumont De Chassart under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Alex Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 46% | 46% | $101.33 | $101.33 |
| R1: Angel Hidalgo under 75.5 strokes | 35% | 48% | 35% | $150.16 | $150.16 |
| R1: Alex Noren under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 64% | 60% | $2 | $2 |
| R1: Andrew Novak under 74.5 strokes | 54% | 59% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Andrew Putnam under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 49% | 42% | $50.73 | $50.73 |
| R1: Aaron Rai under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 44% | 38% | $449.91 | $436.91 |
| R1: Adrien Saddier under 75.5 strokes | 45% | 52% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Adam Scott under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 62% | 60% | $1,162.43 | $1,159.43 |
| R1: Alex Smalley under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 41% | 42% | $71.03 | $71.03 |
| R1: Arni Sveinsson under 76.5 strokes | 10% | 89% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Alejandro Tosti under 75.5 strokes | 46% | 52% | 46% | $3.58 | $3.58 |
| R1: Bud Cauley under 73.5 strokes | 36% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Bryson DeChambeau under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 42% | 41% | $7,195.4 | $7,060.72 |
| R1: Ben Griffin under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 44% | 46% | $838.89 | $838.89 |
| R1: Brian Harman under 73.5 strokes | 39% | 41% | 41% | $1,254.08 | $1,254.08 |
| R1: Brandon Holtz under 75.5 strokes | 13% | 38% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Billy Horschel under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 41% | 41% | $3,344 | $3,334 |
| R1: Benjamin James under 74.5 strokes | 34% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 44% | 45% | 44% | $7,862.76 | $7,266.32 |
| R1: Ben Kohles under 74.5 strokes | 35% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Bryan Lee under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 44% | 25% | $9.29 | $9.29 |
| R1: Ben Silverman under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Brandon Wu under 74.5 strokes | 26% | 36% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Cameron Young under 72.5 strokes | 43% | 46% | 46% | $2,328.28 | $2,319.91 |
| R1: Corey Conners under 74.5 strokes | 52% | 55% | 52% | $1,589.7 | $1,589.7 |
| R1: Cooper Dossey under 75.5 strokes | 53% | 61% | 52% | $315.39 | $315.39 |
| R1: Chris Gotterup under 73.5 strokes | 52% | 53% | 53% | $5,329.27 | $5,306.65 |
| R1: Cole Hammer under 75.5 strokes | 37% | 47% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Chris Kirk under 74.5 strokes | 44% | 54% | 44% | $1,500 | $1,500 |
| R1: Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes | 42% | 53% | 53% | $18.26 | $18.26 |
| R1: Collin Morikawa under 73.5 strokes | 48% | 51% | 51% | $1,744.72 | $1,681.72 |
| R1: Carlos Ortiz under 74.5 strokes | 31% | 42% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Chandler Phillips under 75.5 strokes | 53% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Cameron Smith under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 42% | 42% | $6,731.6 | $5,351.66 |
| R1: Caleb Surratt under 75.5 strokes | 46% | 51% | 45% | $219 | $219 |
| R1: Carl Yuan under 75.5 strokes | 38% | 48% | 9% | $272.78 | $272.78 |
| R1: Daniel Berger under 74.5 strokes | 55% | 57% | 55% | $2,460.78 | $1,640.83 |
| R1: Dustin Johnson under 74.5 strokes | 47% | 54% | 47% | $626.95 | $626.95 |
| R1: David Puig under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 39% | 40% | $2,183.2 | $2,159.14 |
| R1: Davis Thompson under 73.5 strokes | 30% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Dylan Wu under 75.5 strokes | 48% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ethan Fang under 74.5 strokes | 20% | 39% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Emiliano Grillo under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 52% | 44% | $97.49 | $97.49 |
| R1: Eric Lee under 75.5 strokes | 34% | 41% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Filippo Celli under 74.5 strokes | 25% | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Greyson Leach under 78.5 strokes | 68% | 95% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Graeme McDowell under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 49% | 40% | $606.31 | $596.31 |
| R1: Giuseppe Puebla under 75.5 strokes | 27% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Gary Woodland under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Hamilton Coleman under 80.5 strokes | 64% | 76% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Hennie Du Plessis under 75.5 strokes | 42% | 51% | 42% | $167.48 | $167.48 |
| R1: Harris English under 74.5 strokes | 61% | 67% | 61% | $60 | $60 |
| R1: Harry Hall under 74.5 strokes | 54% | 59% | 54% | $1,552 | $1,552 |
| R1: Harry Higgs under 75.5 strokes | 43% | 52% | 53% | $91.33 | $91.33 |
| R1: Hideki Matsuyama under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 42% | 41% | $380.37 | $380.37 |
| R1: Jacob Bridgeman under 74.5 strokes | 58% | 59% | 58% | $3,516.4 | $3,516.4 |
| R1: Jason Day under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 35% | $14.01 | $14.01 |
| R1: Jackson Herrington under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 32% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.B. Holmes under 77.5 strokes | 42% | 53% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: John Keefer under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 54% | 44% | $61.47 | $61.47 |
| R1: Jake Knapp under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 41% | 40% | $594.11 | $594.11 |
| R1: Jackson Koivun under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 45% | 42% | $958 | $958 |
| R1: James Nicholas under 75.5 strokes | 43% | 52% | 53% | $417.64 | $417.64 |
| R1: Joaquin Niemann under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 43% | 43% | $17.88 | $17.88 |
| R1: Jackson Ormond under 75.5 strokes | 18% | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: John Parry under 76.5 strokes | 62% | 66% | 60% | $131.95 | $131.95 |
| R1: Jake Peacock under 77.5 strokes | 56% | 67% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.T. Poston under 74.5 strokes | 50% | 53% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jon Rahm under 72.5 strokes | 42% | 43% | 42% | $766.72 | $745.14 |
| R1: Justin Rose under 73.5 strokes | 44% | 45% | 45% | $1,316 | $1,316 |
| R1: Jack Schoenberger under 74.5 strokes | 15% | 38% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jayden Trey Schaper under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 57% | 40% | $6.48 | $6.48 |
| R1: Jake Sollon under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.J. Spaun under 73.5 strokes | 52% | 54% | 52% | $4,407.17 | $4,382.06 |
| R1: Jordan Spieth under 73.5 strokes | 36% | 43% | 39% | $570.51 | $527.51 |
| R1: Jimmy Stanger under 74.5 strokes | 35% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jackson Suber under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 38% | 40% | $12.29 | $12.29 |
| R1: Justin Thomas under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 45% | 47% | $2,089.7 | $2,089.7 |
| R1: Jackson Van Paris under 76.5 strokes | 37% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Keegan Bradley under 73.5 strokes | 45% | 46% | 46% | $515.03 | $515.03 |
| R1: Kurt Kitayama under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 61% | 60% | $2,245.43 | $2,245.43 |
| R1: Keith Mitchell under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 45% | 45% | $1,089.88 | $1,089.88 |
| R1: Kaito Onishi under 75.5 strokes | 28% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Kristoffer Reitan under 73.5 strokes | 46% | 48% | 49% | $833.62 | $794.61 |
| R1: Kevin Roy under 75.5 strokes | 50% | 63% | 50% | $447.28 | $447.28 |
| R1: Ludvig Aberg under 72.5 strokes | 43% | 44% | 44% | $3,136.99 | $2,776.99 |
| R1: Laurie Canter under 74.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 35% | $150.16 | $150.16 |
| R1: Lucas Herbert under 74.5 strokes | 46% | 54% | 46% | $223 | $223 |
| R1: Logan Reilly under 75.5 strokes | 29% | 43% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Michael Brennan under 74.5 strokes | 38% | 44% | 51% | $6,440 | $5,720 |
| R1: Matt Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 56% | 57% | 57% | $5,309.37 | $4,982.64 |
| R1: Marek Fleming under 77.5 strokes | 27% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Max Greyserman under 73.5 strokes | 36% | 41% | 41% | $4 | $4 |
| R1: Mason Howell under 76.5 strokes | 42% | 52% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Matthew Jordan under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 46% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Michael Kim under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 41% | 43% | $3,854 | $3,854 |
| R1: Min Woo Lee under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 45% | 46% | $103 | $103 |
| R1: Matthew McCarty under 74.5 strokes | 43% | 55% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Max McGreevy under 74.5 strokes | 49% | 56% | 49% | $1,746.42 | $1,746.42 |
| R1: Maverick McNealy under 73.5 strokes | 50% | 52% | 50% | $1,338.05 | $1,338.05 |
| R1: Mateo Pulcini under 75.5 strokes | 15% | 33% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Matthew Robles under 77.5 strokes | 10% | 89% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Marcelo Rozo under 75.5 strokes | 38% | 40% | 38% | $173.91 | $173.91 |
| R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes | 42% | 43% | 42% | $2,787.23 | $1,908.82 |
| R1: Matti Schmid under 74.5 strokes | 38% | 44% | 45% | $2 | $2 |
| R1: Manav Shah under 78.5 strokes | 11% | 51% | 6% | $12.58 | $10.58 |
| R1: Nicolas Echavarria under 73.5 strokes | 32% | 34% | 38% | $22.96 | $22.96 |
| R1: Nick Hardy under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 56% | 57% | $34.06 | $34.06 |
| R1: Nicolai Hojgaard under 74.5 strokes | 53% | 55% | 53% | $2,987.05 | $2,987.05 |
| R1: Nathan Kimsey under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 60% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Niklas Norgaard Moller under 74.5 strokes | 33% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Neal Shipley under 74.5 strokes | 33% | 38% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Nick Taylor under 74.5 strokes | 58% | 60% | 58% | $833.72 | $771 |
| R1: Patrick Cantlay under 72.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 37% | $7 | $7 |
| R1: Pierceson Coody under 74.5 strokes | 41% | 47% | 44% | $16.16 | $16.16 |
| R1: Padraig Harrington under 75.5 strokes | 41% | 66% | 40% | $100 | $100 |
| R1: Patrick Reed under 72.5 strokes | 38% | 41% | 42% | $7,049.41 | $5,994.41 |
| R1: Patrick Rodgers under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes | 53% | 65% | 53% | $21.28 | $21.28 |
| R1: Peter Uihlein under 74.5 strokes | 30% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ryder Cowan under 77.5 strokes | 52% | 63% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Rickie Fowler under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 43% | 41% | $2,820.51 | $2,815.51 |
| R1: Ryan Fox under 74.5 strokes | 55% | 58% | 55% | $1,500 | $1,500 |
| R1: Ryan Gerard under 74.5 strokes | 56% | 59% | 62% | $2,424.55 | $2,424.55 |
| R1: Russell Henley under 72.5 strokes | 36% | 38% | 37% | $1,037.41 | $1,037.41 |
| R1: Robbie Higgins under 76.5 strokes | 32% | 42% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ryo Hisatsune under 73.5 strokes | 29% | 37% | 39% | $1 | $1 |
| R1: Robert MacIntyre under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 53% | 42% | $2,092.84 | $2,092.84 |
| R1: Rory McIlroy under 71.5 strokes | 38% | 40% | 38% | $6,923.61 | $6,874.92 |
| R1: Ryuichi Oiwa under 75.5 strokes | 29% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Rocco Repetto Taylor under 75.5 strokes | 30% | 46% | 30% | $222 | $222 |
| R1: Sam Burns under 72.5 strokes | 39% | 40% | 40% | $4,452.63 | $4,452.63 |
| R1: Sungjae Im under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 37% | $3,903 | $3,859 |
| R1: Shane Lowry under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 45% | 45% | $58.9 | $58.9 |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 44% | 46% | 46% | $12,653.64 | $12,034.59 |
| R1: Sam Stevens under 74.5 strokes | 57% | 58% | 57% | $64.28 | $64.28 |
| R1: Sepp Straka under 72.5 strokes | 34% | 36% | 33% | $21.64 | $21.64 |
| R1: Sahith Theegala under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 42% | 42% | $3,922 | $3,922 |
| R1: Spencer Tibbits under 77.5 strokes | 29% | 39% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Sudarshan Yellamaraju under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 47% | 45% | $217.28 | $217.28 |
| R1: Tommy Fleetwood under 72.5 strokes | 45% | 46% | 46% | $3,560.07 | $2,872.64 |
| R1: Tyrrell Hatton under 72.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 37% | $6,137.93 | $5,080.93 |
| R1: T.K. Kim under 75.5 strokes | 15% | 38% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Tom Kim under 73.5 strokes | 37% | 41% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Taylor Montgomery under 74.5 strokes | 38% | 39% | 40% | $83 | $83 |
| R1: Taihei Sato under 75.5 strokes | 35% | 43% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ugo Coussaud under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Vaughn Harber under 77.5 strokes | 33% | 43% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Viktor Hovland under 72.5 strokes | 30% | 36% | 30% | $49.52 | $49.52 |
| R1: Wyndham Clark under 72.5 strokes | 32% | 34% | 34% | $1,224.74 | $1,224.74 |
| R1: Si Woo Kim under 73.5 strokes | 58% | 60% | 58% | $2,611 | $2,611 |
| R1: William Mouw under 75.5 strokes | 57% | 58% | 61% | $2,565.39 | $2,565.39 |
| R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes | 37% | 44% | 45% | $902.93 | $902.93 |
| R1: Zac Blair under 75.5 strokes | 50% | 51% | 51% | $455.96 | $438.96 |

## How do weather conditions and course setup at Shinnecock Hills typically impact scoring in the first round of a U.S. Open?

1986 First-Round Avg Score | 77.88 [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html) |
2018 First-Round Avg Score | 76.47 [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html) |
Wind Speed for Difficult Play | Exceeds 20 mph [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.todays-golfer.com/news-and-events/tour-news/2018/june/us-open-how-hard-did-shinnecock-play-on-thursday/)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7363138/2026/06/16/us-open-shinnecock-hills-golf-course-difficulty/) |

**Shinnecock Hills consistently produces high first-round scores at the U.S**

Shinnecock Hills consistently produces high first-round scores at the U.S. Open. The course is renowned for yielding some of the highest first-round scoring averages in championship history, primarily due to its significant exposure to wind and its inherently challenging green complexes [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html). A key factor in scoring volatility is the dynamic interaction between wind and temperature, which can dramatically alter green firmness and speed throughout the day [[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-why-cant-175431941.html). This has historically resulted in elevated scores, with first-round averages reaching 77.88 in 1986 and 76.47 in 2018 [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html).

The course's challenging setup amplifies difficulty, especially with strong winds. Shinnecock typically features tight fairways, penal rough, and small, contoured greens [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.todays-golfer.com/news-and-events/tour-news/2018/june/us-open-how-hard-did-shinnecock-play-on-thursday/)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7363138/2026/06/16/us-open-shinnecock-hills-golf-course-difficulty/). These conditions become exceptionally difficult for players to manage when sustained winds exceed 20 mph, often forcing cautious aiming or risking severe penalties for missed targets [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.todays-golfer.com/news-and-events/tour-news/2018/june/us-open-how-hard-did-shinnecock-play-on-thursday/)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7363138/2026/06/16/us-open-shinnecock-hills-golf-course-difficulty/). Furthermore, players with afternoon tee times generally face significantly firmer and faster conditions as prevailing sea breezes build and dry out the greens over the course of the day [[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-why-cant-175431941.html). While player skill rankings offer a general understanding of top players' abilities, these are season-long estimates and do not directly account for the specific impacts of such weather conditions or course setup on scoring at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What key performance indicators, such as strokes gained statistics, support the market's Round 1 scoring line for Scottie Scheffler?

Strokes Gained: Total Rank | 1st (2.162) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2e914fde-c7b0-45d2-9ca4-db91e27dbe2d)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler?deviceId=a7c03d97-c00a-4c6c-be85-7c91e8f8bcff) |
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank | 1st (1.696) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2e914fde-c7b0-45d2-9ca4-db91e27dbe2d)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler?deviceId=a7c03d97-c00a-4c6c-be85-7c91e8f8bcff) |
2026 Round 1 Scoring Average | 69.92 (51st on tour) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6) |

**Scottie Scheffler’s market position is bolstered by elite Strokes Gained statistics**

Scottie Scheffler’s **market** position is bolstered by elite Strokes Gained statistics. His strong **market** position for Round 1 scoring in the 2026 U.S. Open is primarily supported by his leading performance in key Strokes Gained statistics on the PGA Tour. He currently ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total, averaging 2.162 strokes gained per round, and also leads in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green with 1.696 strokes gained [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2e914fde-c7b0-45d2-9ca4-db91e27dbe2d)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler?deviceId=a7c03d97-c00a-4c6c-be85-7c91e8f8bcff)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://statz.ai/golf/players/185/scottie-scheffler). His 2026 performance profile indicates improved driving distance and significantly better putting, gaining over 0.5 shots per round, both critical for his Round 1 scoring projections [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-does-2026-142620796.html)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_U.S._Open_(golf)). Furthermore, Scheffler demonstrates high consistency, with 24 top-10 finishes and 7 victories during the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/pt/article/news/betting-profile/2026/cadillac-championship/scottie-scheffler-pga-tour-betting-stats-cadillac-championship-2026).

Despite overall excellence, Scheffler exhibits a notable Round 1 scoring disparity. A notable aspect of Scheffler's 2026 PGA Tour season is a distinct round-by-round scoring disparity. His Round 1 scoring average is 69.92, which ranks 51st on tour and is notably higher than his overall actual scoring average of 68.31 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6). This suggests a tendency for slower tournament starts, as his performance improves considerably in subsequent rounds, averaging 68.42 in Round 2, 67.42 in Round 3, and 67.50 in the Final Round [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6).

## How do Rory McIlroy's and Jon Rahm's past performances in U.S. Opens compare, particularly on difficult, links-style courses like Shinnecock Hills?

Rory McIlroy U.S. Open Win | 2011 [[^]](https://www.golf365.com/news/rory-mcilroy-best-us-open-performances)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-how-many-times-rory-mcilroy-won-us-open-major-record-explored)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/rory-mcilroy-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025) |
Jon Rahm U.S. Open Win | 2021 [[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/uk/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://sports.co.it/jon-rahm-majors-timeline-breaking-down-last-major-wins-and-complete-history-of-finishes/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024) |
Rory McIlroy Current Ranking | 2nd (DataGolf) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Both McIlroy and Rahm have U.S**

Both McIlroy and Rahm have U.S. Open titles but struggled at Shinnecock. Rory McIlroy won the U.S. Open in 2011 [[^]](https://www.golf365.com/news/rory-mcilroy-best-us-open-performances)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-how-many-times-rory-mcilroy-won-us-open-major-record-explored)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/rory-mcilroy-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025), and Jon Rahm secured his title in 2021 at Torrey Pines [[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/uk/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://sports.co.it/jon-rahm-majors-timeline-breaking-down-last-major-wins-and-complete-history-of-finishes/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024). Both players have demonstrated strong overall performance in the tournament. As of mid-2026, McIlroy has achieved six top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including runner-up performances in 2023 and 2024 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/rory-mcilroy-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025)[[^]](https://m.foremajorsgolf.com/player/8823/rory-mcilroy). Rahm has recorded three top-10 finishes overall [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024). Despite their successes, both McIlroy and Rahm notably missed the cut at Shinnecock Hills during the 2018 U.S. Open [[^]](https://m.foremajorsgolf.com/player/8823/rory-mcilroy)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/rory-mcilroy-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/uk/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://sports.co.it/jon-rahm-majors-timeline-breaking-down-last-major-wins-and-complete-history-of-finishes/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024).

Shinnecock Hills' difficult conditions led to both players missing the cut. Shinnecock Hills is known as a challenging championship course, characterized by its fast greens and susceptibility to high winds [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://www.independent.ie/sport/golf/rory-mcilroy-urges-caution-as-tee-times-revealed-ahead-of-windy-us-open-test-at-shinnecock-hills/a/157313235.html). In 2018, McIlroy experienced significant difficulties there, missing the cut after an opening-round 80, and he specifically referenced these tough conditions in anticipation of the 2026 event [[^]](https://m.foremajorsgolf.com/player/8823/rory-mcilroy)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/rory-mcilroy-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://www.independent.ie/sport/golf/rory-mcilroy-urges-caution-as-tee-times-revealed-ahead-of-windy-us-open-test-at-shinnecock-hills/a/157313235.html). Similarly, Rahm's sole appearance at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 also concluded with him missing the cut [[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/uk/golf/news/jon-rahm-major-timeline-complete-history-finishes/542797a5967747fe11c89a72)[[^]](https://sports.co.it/jon-rahm-majors-timeline-breaking-down-last-major-wins-and-complete-history-of-finishes/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024).

Current skill rankings place McIlroy and Rahm highly, lacking specific course data. According to DataGolf, Rory McIlroy holds the 2nd overall ranking with a skill estimate of 2.11 total strokes gained, while Jon Rahm is ranked 3rd overall with a skill estimate of 2.09 total strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). These current player skill rankings do not, however, provide specific information regarding their past performances in U.S. Opens or on difficult, links-style courses [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What is the historical scoring data for top-ranked players during previous U.S. Opens held at Shinnecock Hills?

Shinnecock Hills U.S. Opens hosted | 5 times (1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, 2018) [[^]](https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/media/online-media-center/usga-records/u-s--open-results--1895-to-present.html)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/5-u-open-winners-shinnecock-190823204.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/5-us-open-winners-at-shinnecock-hills/) |
2018 U.S. Open Round 1 leaders | 4 players at 1-under par (69) [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/dustin-johnson-keeps-cool-shares-round-1-lead-at-u-s-open/76613425007/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/us-open-2018-round-1-recap-dustin-johnson-tiger-woods-shinnecock-hills/1d3jsp7o74jka11k9oqhqfrror) |
2018 U.S. Open Round 1 scoring average | 76.47 [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/dustin-johnson-keeps-cool-shares-round-1-lead-at-u-s-open/76613425007/) |

**Historical U.S**

Historical U.S. Open scoring data at Shinnecock Hills is limited. Comprehensive historical scoring data for top-ranked players from previous U.S. Opens held at Shinnecock Hills is largely unavailable, with detailed Round 1 scores specifically provided only for the 2018 championship. Shinnecock Hills has hosted the U.S. Open five times: in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, and 2018 [[^]](https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/media/online-media-center/usga-records/u-s--open-results--1895-to-present.html)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/5-u-open-winners-shinnecock-190823204.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/5-us-open-winners-at-shinnecock-hills/). While player skill rankings like DataGolf offer current estimates for top players, they do not contain the specific historical scoring information requested for these past events [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

The 2018 U.S. Open opening round at Shinnecock was notably difficult. The 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills experienced a particularly challenging first round, registering a scoring average of 76.47 [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/dustin-johnson-keeps-cool-shares-round-1-lead-at-u-s-open/76613425007/). This marked the highest average for a U.S. Open first round since the 1986 championship, which also took place at Shinnecock Hills and had a scoring average of 77.877 [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/behind-the-numbers-of-a-brutal-opening-round-at-the-u-s-open/76613481007/). After Round 1 in 2018, four players—Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, Scott Piercy, and Russell Henley—shared the lead at 1-under par (69), with Jason Dufner as the sole player at even-par (70) [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2018/06/14/dustin-johnson-keeps-cool-shares-round-1-lead-at-u-s-open/76613425007/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/au/golf/news/us-open-2018-round-1-recap-dustin-johnson-tiger-woods-shinnecock-hills/1d3jsp7o74jka11k9oqhqfrror).

## How does Xander Schauffele's recent form compare to Tommy Fleetwood's leading into the 2026 U.S. Open?

Xander Schauffele Major Consistency | Top 20 in 16 of last 17 major starts since 2022 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/Xander-Schauffele/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice) |
Tommy Fleetwood 2026 Top-10s | 12 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/13/tommy-fleetwood-round-3-rbc-canadian-open-tpc-toronto-at-osprey-valley-storyline-leaderboard-results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results) |
2026 Cuts Made (Both Players) | 11 of 12 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/Xander-Schauffele/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results) |

**Xander Schauffele consistently performs well, entering the U.S**

Xander Schauffele consistently performs well, entering the U.S. Open without a 2026 win. He has maintained consistent performance, securing multiple top-10 finishes this year, though a victory has eluded him in 2026. His recent results include a T3 at THE PLAYERS, a T4 at the Valspar Championship, a T9 at The Masters, and a T7 at the PGA Championship [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/Xander-Schauffele/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice). Schauffele also boasts remarkable consistency in major championships, achieving a top-20 finish in 16 of his last 17 starts since 2022 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/Xander-Schauffele/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice).

Tommy Fleetwood enters with strong recent form, marked by numerous top-10 finishes. Fleetwood has displayed "hot" form, highlighted by 12 top-10 finishes during the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/13/tommy-fleetwood-round-3-rbc-canadian-open-tpc-toronto-at-osprey-valley-storyline-leaderboard-results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results). His recent tournament play includes a T4 at the Memorial Tournament and being in contention at the RBC Canadian Open immediately preceding the U.S. Open [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results)[[^]](https://statz.ai/golf/players/49/tommy-fleetwood)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/13/tommy-fleetwood-round-3-rbc-canadian-open-tpc-toronto-at-osprey-valley-storyline-leaderboard-results)[[^]](https://www.golfshake.com/news/view/22867/This_could_be_the_summer_of_Tommy_Fleetwood.html)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/player/results/_/id/5539/tommy-fleetwood). However, Fleetwood did miss the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results)[[^]](https://statz.ai/golf/players/49/tommy-fleetwood)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/13/tommy-fleetwood-round-3-rbc-canadian-open-tpc-toronto-at-osprey-valley-storyline-leaderboard-results)[[^]](https://www.golfshake.com/news/view/22867/This_could_be_the_summer_of_Tommy_Fleetwood.html)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/player/results/_/id/5539/tommy-fleetwood).

Both players show strong tour consistency; Fleetwood holds a slight statistical edge. Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood have both demonstrated consistent play on the PGA Tour, each making 11 of 12 cuts in their tracked events during the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/Xander-Schauffele/results)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/30911/tommy-fleetwood/results). According to DataGolf rankings for the PGA Tour, Fleetwood is positioned slightly higher at rank 6 with a skill estimate of 1.82, compared to Schauffele at rank 7 with a skill estimate of 1.72 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to be held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://www.wpga.org/wp-content/uploads/Open26Proof14April2.pdf)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_U.S._Open_(golf)).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 U.S.** Open Golf Championship is scheduled to take place from June 18 to June 21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/overview)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html). The first round of the 2026 U.S. Open occurs on Thursday, June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html).

**The provided query date of July 4, 2026, is after the conclusion of the 2026 U.S.** Open [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html). As of June 18, 2026, the tournament has already commenced, with the first round underway and broadcast coverage scheduled to begin at 6:30 a.m. EDT [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/16/us-open-tee-times-2026-shinnecock-round-1-2-pairings-groupings-starting-times-thursday-friday-scheffler). The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled for June 18-21, 2026, not July 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/overview).

**Key players ranked by DataGolf include Scottie Scheffler at 1st with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, Rory McIlroy at 2nd with 2.11 strokes gained, and Jon Rahm at 3rd with 2.09 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).** Other top-ranked players are Cameron Young (4th, 1.83 strokes gained), Matt Fitzpatrick (5th, 1.82 strokes gained), Tommy Fleetwood (6th, 1.82 strokes gained), and Xander Schauffele (7th, 1.72 strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 04, 2026
- **Closes:** July 04, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 U.S.
- Open Golf Championship is scheduled to take place from June 18 to June 21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [^] [^] [^] .
- The first round of the 2026 U.S.
- Open occurs on Thursday, June 18, 2026 [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-WCLA67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VWHA70: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VHOV67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TPEN68: YES (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TKIM67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)

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