# U.s. Open: Top 20 Finishers

2026 U.S. Open

Updated: June 21, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-top-20-finishers/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Wyndham Clark to finish in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S.** Open, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Since last update (~24h): Ludvig Aberg's model probability decreased 35.3pp, market 39.0pp, compressing the edge (market_led).** - Sahith Theegala's **model** **probability** increased 41.3pp, **market** 33.0pp, compressing the edge (model_led).
- Keith Mitchell's **model** **probability** increased 40.5pp, **market** 34.0pp, compressing the edge (model_led).
- Jackson Van Paris's **model** **probability** increased 30.9pp, **market** 39.0pp, widening the edge (market_led).

**- - Scottie Scheffler appears a clear favorite for a Top 20 finish.** - Shinnecock Hills' course characteristics may impact top contenders' performance.
- Sam Burns significantly outperformed Keegan Bradley in putting during the 2026 season.
- Prediction markets considered Scottie Scheffler a primary favorite and bullish catalyst.
- The **market** experienced a significant price spike on June 19, 2026.
- Betting markets show divergent probabilities for Wyndham Clark's Top 20 finish.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model sees 6.9% probability vs.** 15c **market**, suggesting overvaluation despite Scottie Scheffler's strong performance for a Top 20 finish.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ben Kohles | 15.0% | 6.9% | Ben Kohles aims to deliver a strong and competitive showing. |
| Tom Kim | 88.0% | 84.6% | Tom Kim is a rising talent known for consistent top finishes. |
| Miles Russell | 3.0% | 1.0% | Miles Russell possesses the skill set to achieve a top-20 finish at the U.S. Open. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ben Kohles | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Tom Kim | 88.0% | 84.6% |
| Miles Russell | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Benjamin James | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Putnam | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Harry Higgs | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Angel Hidalgo | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| William Mouw | 28.0% | 16.4% |
| Ryder Cowan | 36.0% | 23.5% |
| Max McGreevy | 28.0% | 16.4% |
| Peter Uihlein | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Spencer Tibbits | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Caleb Surratt | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| James Nicholas | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Bud Cauley | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Keith Mitchell | 78.0% | 71.8% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 74.0% | 66.7% |
| Max Greyserman | 32.0% | 19.8% |
| J.T. Poston | 46.0% | 33.6% |
| Neal Shipley | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Zac Blair | 30.0% | 18.1% |
| Eric Lee | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| John Parry | 35.0% | 22.6% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 20.0% | 10.2% |
| Dylan Wu | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Jackson Van Paris | 46.0% | 33.6% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Marek Fleming | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Xander Schauffele | 89.0% | 85.9% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 97.0% | 96.2% |
| Rory McIlroy | 66.0% | 56.7% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 83.0% | 78.2% |
| Chris Gotterup | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Justin Rose | 39.0% | 26.4% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 81.0% | 75.6% |
| Cameron Young | 33.0% | 20.7% |
| Sam Burns | 88.0% | 84.6% |
| Wyndham Clark | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 23.0% | 12.4% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 39.0% | 26.4% |
| Russell Henley | 26.0% | 14.7% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 46.0% | 33.6% |
| Sahith Theegala | 88.0% | 84.6% |
| Aaron Rai | 49.0% | 36.8% |
| Collin Morikawa | 79.0% | 73.1% |
| Dustin Johnson | 32.0% | 19.8% |
| Justin Thomas | 43.0% | 30.4% |
| Gary Woodland | 44.0% | 31.5% |
| Jordan Spieth | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Michael Kim | 39.0% | 26.4% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 62.0% | 51.8% |
| Jackson Koivun | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Corey Conners | 57.0% | 45.9% |
| Keegan Bradley | 63.0% | 53.0% |
| Brian Harman | 44.0% | 31.5% |
| Ryan Fox | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Michael Brennan | 12.0% | 5.2% |
| Maverick McNealy | 52.0% | 40.2% |
| Sam Stevens | 87.0% | 83.3% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 12.0% | 5.2% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Sungjae Im | 41.0% | 28.4% |
| Ben Griffin | 39.0% | 26.4% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 43.0% | 30.4% |
| John Keefer | 45.0% | 32.5% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 28.0% | 16.4% |
| Laurie Canter | 14.0% | 6.3% |

- Expiration: July 19, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited an overall downward trend, moving from a starting price of 57.0% to a current probability of 13.0%, with significant volatility corresponding to tournament play. The price action was heavily influenced by real-time performance. A notable 26.0 percentage point spike occurred on June 18, pushing the probability from 43.0% to 69.0%. This was reportedly driven by Ludvig Aberg's strong showing in the opening round. However, this optimism was erased on June 20, when the contract plummeted 33.0 percentage points to a low of 5.0%. This sharp decline was a direct result of Aberg's actual tournament leaderboard position after the third round, which showed he was not ranked in the top 20.

The trading volume of 58,088 contracts suggests active participation, with price movements indicating traders were reacting swiftly to new information. The chart shows a clear resistance level was established around 69.0%, which the market failed to sustain, and a price floor was found at 5.0% following the negative performance news. The overall price journey reflects a dramatic shift in market sentiment, starting with moderate confidence, surging on early positive results, and then collapsing as the probability of a top 20 finish diminished based on actual performance. The current low price indicates a strong market consensus that the contract is unlikely to resolve positively.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Akshay Bhatia

#### 📉 June 21, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 67.0% to 46.0%

**What happened:** The 21.0 percentage point drop in Akshay Bhatia's prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the U.S. Open on June 21, 2026, was primarily driven by his tournament performance. Bhatia finished in a tie for 57th place (T57) with a total score of +10, significantly outside the Top 20 [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=3783&player=akshay-bhatia). As the tournament progressed, his position declined from an initial provisional T-29 on June 19, making a Top 20 finish highly improbable by the final day [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=3783&player=akshay-bhatia)[[^]](https://www.rediff.com/sports/report/bhatia-t-29-and-theegala-t-49-at-weather-hit-us-open/20260619.htm)[[^]](https://m.rediff.com/amp/sports/report/bhatia-t-29-and-theegala-t-49-at-weather-hit-us-open/20260619.htm). There is no evidence supporting the specific claim of a "21.0pp drop" as a social media catalyst or major news event linked to this tournament performance [[^]](https://www.rediff.com/sports/report/bhatia-t-29-and-theegala-t-49-at-weather-hit-us-open/20260619.htm)[[^]](https://m.rediff.com/amp/sports/report/bhatia-t-29-and-theegala-t-49-at-weather-hit-us-open/20260619.htm). Social media was irrelevant to this market movement.

#### 📈 June 19, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 16.0% to 54.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 38.0 percentage point price spike was traditional news about Akshay Bhatia's performance in the 2026 U.S. Open. On June 19, 2026, reports noted that Bhatia was provisionally T-29 during the fog-delayed first round [[^]](https://www.rediff.com/sports/report/bhatia-t-29-and-theegala-t-49-at-weather-hit-us-open/20260619.htm), a surprisingly strong position given he is not ranked among the top players [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). This provisional standing significantly increased the perceived likelihood of him finishing in the Top 20. Social media activity regarding past "anchoring" allegations from earlier 2026 tournaments [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-did-akshay-bhatia-cheat-arnold-palmer-invitational-2026-fans-anchor-putt-allegations-explored)[[^]](https://www.the-express.com/sport/golf/201518/akshay-bhatia-anchoring-pga-tour) does not align with or explain this positive price spike on June 19, 2026, making it mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific market movement.

### Outcome: Ludvig Aberg

#### 📉 June 20, 2026: 33.0pp drop

Price decreased from 38.0% to 5.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 33.0 percentage point drop in Ludvig Aberg's "Top 20 Finishers" prediction market on June 20, 2026, was his actual performance during the U.S. Open. By the conclusion of the third round on that date, official leaderboards showed Ludvig Aberg did not rank among the top 20 participants, with Wyndham Clark holding the lead [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/scoring.html)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/31000097/u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard). This direct outcome significantly reduced the probability of him achieving a top 20 finish, thereby driving down market prices for that specific outcome [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard). Social media was irrelevant, as no specific posts from key figures or viral narratives related to Aberg's performance or a "33.0pp drop" were found for this period [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDQTgODCaGk)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mq0r92gLkLw)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lb3Ro0gbDXg)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NGzD95VscY)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lso1p3vy47k).

#### 📈 June 18, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 43.0% to 69.0%

**What happened:** The 26.0 percentage point spike in Ludvig Aberg's "Top 20 Finishers" market on June 18, 2026, was primarily driven by his strong performance in the opening round of the U.S. Open. On this date, Aberg opened the tournament with a 1-under 69, a score that would typically place a golfer in a favorable position for a top 20 finish at that early stage [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/players/52955.html)[[^]](https://video.usga.org/videos/2026/06/ludvig-aberg--round-1---every-televised-shot--2026-6398786362112.html). No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors related to Ludvig Aberg were identified in the provided research around this date to explain the movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

### Outcome: Michael Brennan

#### 📉 June 15, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 11.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was Michael Brennan's on-course performance at the 2026 U.S. Open. He missed the cut with rounds of 74 and 75 (+9), which made a Top 20 finish impossible and directly caused a significant drop in his market probability for that outcome [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/scoring.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=4180&player=michael-brennan). Although Michael Brennan previously gained viral social media attention for an unrelated event, there is no evidence of specific social media activity causing a 15.0 percentage point drop related to his U.S. Open performance [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/michael-brennan-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/61522/michael-brennan). Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open; otherwise, it resolves NO. Special conditions apply if the golfer forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate: prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price, but after teeing off, it resolves to NO. The market opened on May 18, 2026, and will close after the event's outcome or by July 19, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Wyndham Clark leads the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills at -7 after the third round, holding a six-stroke advantage over a group tied for second at -1, which includes Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim, and Sam Stevens [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/scoring.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard)[[^]](https://nesn.com/golf/news/us-open-leaderboard-2026-golf-scores-standings-results-round/ac297dc009dc5189e7508477)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/31000097/u-s-open/). This dominant performance has led prediction markets to show Clark's probability of winning surging to over 70% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://www.researchfrc.com/prediction-markets/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://www.on3.com/pro/news/2026-us-open-michigan-nfl-alum-taylor-lewan-riding-massive-outright-ticket-on-wyndham-clark/). For Top 20 considerations beyond current tournament standings, DataGolf's skill estimates rank players like Scottie Scheffler (1st), Rory McIlroy (2nd), Jon Rahm (3rd), and Wyndham Clark (18th) among the top 20 overall [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Akshay Bhatia | 45% | 46% | 46% | $51,951.52 | $40,067.78 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0% | 1% | 5% | $1,146.41 | $958.48 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 61% | 62% | 62% | $21,652.37 | $18,427.21 |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0% | 26% | 5% | $10,098.97 | $8,594.84 |
| Andrew Putnam | 8% | 9% | 8% | $15,400.44 | $14,343.23 |
| Aaron Rai | 47% | 49% | 49% | $42,356.23 | $37,633.65 |
| Bud Cauley | 12% | 14% | 14% | $6,975.24 | $6,593.36 |
| Ben Griffin | 36% | 39% | 39% | $7,261.73 | $7,057.78 |
| Brian Harman | 41% | 44% | 44% | $15,342.41 | $13,011.39 |
| Benjamin James | 0% | 69% | 2% | $22,890.44 | $22,004.28 |
| Ben Kohles | 13% | 15% | 15% | $59,664.9 | $55,082.6 |
| Cameron Young | 30% | 33% | 33% | $64,905.27 | $53,271.9 |
| Corey Conners | 56% | 57% | 57% | $18,813.6 | $16,548.25 |
| Chris Gotterup | 8% | 10% | 8% | $72,274.63 | $61,309.01 |
| Collin Morikawa | 78% | 79% | 79% | $38,830.08 | $34,706.61 |
| Caleb Surratt | 0% | 41% | 10% | $8,245.04 | $8,245.04 |
| Dustin Johnson | 29% | 32% | 32% | $38,817.08 | $31,136.44 |
| Dylan Wu | 0% | 1% | 14% | $1,776.5 | $1,776.5 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 74% | 75% | 74% | $4,980.83 | $4,209.26 |
| Eric Lee | 0% | 1% | 14% | $3,504.68 | $3,504.68 |
| Gary Woodland | 41% | 44% | 44% | $28,785.86 | $27,427.78 |
| Harry Higgs | 6% | 9% | 6% | $11,725.94 | $11,329.1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% | 34% | 1% | $11,647.78 | $10,602.48 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% | 8% | 2% | $11,348.27 | $11,189.35 |
| John Keefer | 0% | 9% | 45% | $4,233.85 | $4,223.85 |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% | 10% | 8% | $19,608.42 | $18,354.88 |
| James Nicholas | 0% | 1% | 1% | $7,852.1 | $7,688.14 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 21% | 23% | 23% | $58,782.89 | $38,734.4 |
| John Parry | 32% | 35% | 35% | $3,435.76 | $3,043.76 |
| J.T. Poston | 44% | 46% | 46% | $4,305.87 | $3,712.68 |
| Justin Rose | 36% | 39% | 39% | $72,238.89 | $56,875.57 |
| Jordan Spieth | 15% | 17% | 15% | $25,972.51 | $22,583.26 |
| Justin Thomas | 41% | 43% | 43% | $28,889.91 | $23,598.18 |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0% | 41% | 46% | $1,703.42 | $1,697.42 |
| Keegan Bradley | 60% | 63% | 63% | $16,538.74 | $14,956.49 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% | 45% | 12% | $12,272.81 | $11,869.35 |
| Keith Mitchell | 78% | 81% | 78% | $6,093.15 | $4,640.68 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 13% | 16% | 15% | $61,052.66 | $48,118.85 |
| Laurie Canter | 12% | 14% | 14% | $1,303.84 | $1,298.84 |
| Michael Brennan | 9% | 11% | 12% | $13,765.48 | $13,362.38 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 81% | 83% | 81% | $66,486.46 | $53,924.99 |
| Marek Fleming | 0% | 41% | 7% | $251 | $251 |
| Max Greyserman | 0% | 43% | 32% | $4,534.41 | $4,309.52 |
| Michael Kim | 38% | 40% | 39% | $23,106.22 | $19,718.59 |
| Max McGreevy | 25% | 27% | 28% | $9,745.2 | $9,413.76 |
| Maverick McNealy | 49% | 52% | 52% | $13,206.35 | $11,251.29 |
| Miles Russell | 0% | 11% | 3% | $29,966.45 | $28,072.22 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% | 41% | 9% | $11,612.76 | $10,308.6 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 17% | 20% | 20% | $2,854.4 | $1,537.76 |
| Neal Shipley | 0% | 1% | 10% | $3,934.8 | $3,934.8 |
| Pierceson Coody | 25% | 27% | 28% | $3,943.77 | $3,605.15 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% | 1% | 10% | $4,167.24 | $4,167.24 |
| Peter Uihlein | 0% | 1% | 8% | $9,180.47 | $8,525.47 |
| Ryder Cowan | 34% | 38% | 36% | $9,793.42 | $9,057.51 |
| Ryan Fox | 1% | 10% | 6% | $13,938.04 | $13,876.34 |
| Russell Henley | 0% | 39% | 26% | $55,717.74 | $50,578.36 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 40% | 43% | 43% | $4,488.03 | $3,956.6 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 8% | 9% | 8% | $23,244.52 | $21,869.77 |
| Rory McIlroy | 63% | 66% | 66% | $133,046.08 | $112,123.39 |
| Sam Burns | 86% | 88% | 88% | $63,078.87 | $47,032.39 |
| Sungjae Im | 39% | 41% | 41% | $9,372.92 | $9,049.53 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 97% | 98% | 97% | $154,414.07 | $107,111.42 |
| Sam Stevens | 85% | 87% | 87% | $12,864.43 | $9,710.07 |
| Sahith Theegala | 86% | 88% | 88% | $48,191.14 | $41,185.49 |
| Spencer Tibbits | 0% | 1% | 1% | $8,527.67 | $7,770.01 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 83% | 85% | 83% | $85,356.67 | $61,639.93 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 37% | 39% | 39% | $57,031.42 | $53,970.87 |
| Tom Kim | 86% | 88% | 88% | $36,702.29 | $27,439.99 |
| Wyndham Clark | 92% | 100% | 99% | $62,569.75 | $41,263.72 |
| William Mouw | 25% | 28% | 28% | $10,004.9 | $8,938.43 |
| Xander Schauffele | 89% | 91% | 89% | $351,293.8 | $265,246.52 |
| Zac Blair | 27% | 30% | 30% | $3,913.97 | $3,845.06 |

## What do betting market odds and expert predictions indicate about Wyndham Clark's probability of securing a Top 20 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open?

Kalshi Top 20 Probability | 97% (Kalshi) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpgatop20/pga-top-20-finisher/kxpgatop20-uso26) |
Polymarket Top 20 Probability | 17% (as of June 17, 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top20) |
Lead entering Final Round | Six strokes [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/draws-and-fades/2026/06/20/round-3-us-open-shinnecock-hills-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice) |

**Betting markets reveal divergent probabilities for Wyndham Clark's Top 20 finish at the 2026 U.S**

Betting markets reveal divergent probabilities for Wyndham Clark's Top 20 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open. One **market**, Kalshi, indicates a **97%** **probability** for Clark to secure a Top 20 finish (including ties), with resolution based on official PGA Tour results [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpgatop20/pga-top-20-finisher/kxpgatop20-uso26). Conversely, Polymarket assigned an implied **probability** of approximately **17%** for a Top 20 finish, though this figure significantly predates his current tournament performance and was recorded as of June 17, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top20).

Current performance and expert insights strongly predict a high finish for Clark. Wyndham Clark leads the 2026 U.S. Open by an impressive six strokes heading into the final round at Shinnecock Hills, positioning him as an overwhelming favorite not only for a Top 20 finish but also for an outright win [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/draws-and-fades/2026/06/20/round-3-us-open-shinnecock-hills-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice). Historical data shows no player has squandered a six-stroke lead in a major championship since 1996 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/draws-and-fades/2026/06/20/round-3-us-open-shinnecock-hills-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice). Clark's live final-round win odds are -280, implying a **73.68%** win **probability** [[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/us-open-live-odds-and-prediction-ahead-of-final-round-can-anyone-catch-wyndham-clark-01kvkyxecy69). Further reinforcing his strong position, Clark is currently ranked 18th in the DataGolf Rankings, providing context for his current player strength [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## Which 'sleeper' golfers, such as Ludvig Aberg or Akshay Bhatia, present a strong statistical case for a surprise Top 20 finish based on their 2026 form?

Ludvig Åberg SG: Total | 1.486, ranking 2 (PGA Tour data) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/stats?deviceId=63140d34-76bc-46c6-b677-f3929789b971) |
Akshay Bhatia Putting Ranks | 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 6th in Putts Per Round (TOUR) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/akshay-bhatia-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026) |
Patrick Cantlay DataGolf vs OWGR | DataGolf Rank 11 (skill 1.58) vs. OWGR 33 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Shinnecock Hills favors golfers with specific skills and consistent performance**

Shinnecock Hills favors golfers with specific skills and consistent performance. The 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills will specifically reward players demonstrating strong driving accuracy, elite iron play, a robust short game, and the ability to avoid bogeys, due to its challenging design, undulating greens, and susceptibility to wind [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/17/the-u-s-open-sleeper-picks/)[[^]](https://www.prizepicks.com/playbook-article/us-open-sleeper-picks-top-10-predictions-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://fansided.com/golf/dark-horse-u-s-open-picks-these-sleepers-could-surprise-everyone-at-shinnecock)[[^]](https://www.livgolf.com/news/data-analysis-how-each-liv-golf-player-could-win-us-open-shinnecock-2026)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/golf/comments/1u7g83i/us_open_statistical_model_2026/). Ludvig Åberg, identified as a prime 'sleeper' candidate, is ranked 8th by DataGolf with a skill estimate of 1.71 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). His 2026 season has been marked by consistent high finishes, including a tie for third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a tie for fifth at The Players Championship in March [[^]](https://www.masters.com/en_US/players/player_52955.html). Over his past ten appearances, Åberg has secured six top-10 and five top-five finishes [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/ludvig-aberg-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). His impressive statistical averages, including 0.533 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 0.766 Strokes Gained: Approach the Green in his last five tournaments, further bolster his case [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/ludvig-aberg-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). Overall, his PGA Tour data shows a strong 1.486 Strokes Gained: Total (ranking 2), alongside elite Putting Average and Birdie-or-better conversion, positioning him as a high-likelihood Top 20 finisher [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/stats?deviceId=63140d34-76bc-46c6-b677-f3929789b971).

Several other golfers present compelling cases for a surprise Top 20 finish. Akshay Bhatia has commenced 2026 with a "red-hot" streak, highlighted by a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and four top-20 finishes in his last ten starts [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/2026-masters-picks-predictions-akshay-bhatia/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/akshay-bhatia-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). His exceptional putting, ranking eighth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth in Putts Per Round, could provide a significant advantage on Shinnecock's challenging greens [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/akshay-bhatia-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). Russell Henley stands out as a strong statistical candidate due to his elite driving accuracy, a crucial attribute for the course, and is enjoying an "excellent season" [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/17/the-u-s-open-sleeper-picks/)[[^]](https://www.livgolf.com/news/data-analysis-how-each-liv-golf-player-could-win-us-open-shinnecock-2026). Shane Lowry’s "links-honed game" positions him as a strong contender if windy conditions emerge, given his past success in challenging weather, including a runner-up finish at the 2016 U.S. Open [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/17/the-u-s-open-sleeper-picks/). J.J. Spaun also merits consideration as a 'sleeper,' having demonstrated strong form with five top-15 finishes in his last eight starts, which includes two victories at the wind-impacted Valero Texas Open [[^]](https://www.lineups.com/betting/2026-us-open-sleepers-5-potential-draftkings-golf-dfs-values/).

Statistical analysis also highlights two undervalued players with strong potential. Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott show significant statistical potential based on their DataGolf rankings compared to their Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Cantlay is ranked 11th by DataGolf (skill 1.58) against an OWGR of 33, while Scott is DataGolf ranked 20th (skill 1.26) against an OWGR of 49 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). These discrepancies suggest they are statistically undervalued for a strong U.S. Open performance [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## Comparing their 2026 season data, how do Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns differ in strokes gained on approach versus strokes gained putting?

Keegan Bradley Strokes Gained Approach | -0.273 per round (2026 PGA Tour season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/33141/keegan-bradley/stats?deviceId=2349ade1-89b4-4694-92b7-28dab30d7d6a) |
Keegan Bradley Strokes Gained Putting | -0.067 per round (2026 PGA Tour season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/33141/keegan-bradley/stats?deviceId=2349ade1-89b4-4694-92b7-28dab30d7d6a) |
Sam Burns Strokes Gained Putting | +0.627 per round (2026 PGA Tour season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/47504/sam-burns/stats) |

**Sam Burns significantly outperformed Keegan Bradley in 2026 putting**

Sam Burns significantly outperformed Keegan Bradley in 2026 putting. During the 2026 PGA Tour season, Keegan Bradley recorded negative strokes gained in both approach (-0.273 per round) and putting (-0.067 per round) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/33141/keegan-bradley/stats?deviceId=2349ade1-89b4-4694-92b7-28dab30d7d6a). In contrast, Sam Burns also had negative strokes gained on approach (-0.144 per round) but demonstrated stronger putting with an average of +0.627 strokes gained per round [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/47504/sam-burns/stats). This indicates a substantial difference in their performance on the greens, with Burns showing a considerable advantage.

DataGolf rankings offer limited insight for this detailed comparison. While Sam Burns is listed in the provided DataGolf rankings with a rank of 12 and a skill estimate of 1.57 total strokes-gained, Keegan Bradley is not present in these rankings [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). However, the DataGolf rankings do not include specific breakdowns for strokes gained on approach or putting, which are necessary to directly compare the two players in these particular categories using that source [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What evidence from the 2026 season and advanced analytics supports Scottie Scheffler's status as the consensus favorite to finish in the Top 20?

Polymarket Top 20 Probability | 56% (June 15, 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top20)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top10) |
2026 Scoring Average | 69.1-69.3 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6) |
DataGolf Skill Estimate | 2.85 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite for a U.S**

Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite for a U.S. Open Top 20 finish. This prediction is broadly supported by his elite season performance and strong advanced analytics [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top20)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top10)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler). Prediction markets on Polymarket showed him with a **56%** implied **probability** for a Top 20 finish as of June 15, 2026, with overall **market**-implied probabilities for a Top 20 finish reaching approximately **70%** by June 17, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top20)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-top10).

Scheffler's 2026 season performance demonstrates elite consistency and scoring ability. He has maintained an exceptional adjusted scoring average between 69.1 and 69.3, ranking him first on the PGA Tour [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6). His season includes seven Top-10 finishes and one victory across 12 events, further bolstered by a consistent streak of finishing 14th or better in his last six tournaments leading into the U.S. Open [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler).

Advanced analytics firmly establish Scheffler's dominance over his competitors. The Opta FRACAS projection **model** confirms he has not missed a cut in 2026 and possesses a course-adjusted strokes-gained profile superior to the rest of the field [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler). For the 2026 season, Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained (SG): Total (2.162) and SG: Tee-to-Green (1.696) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6). His DataGolf Ranking reflects a significant skill estimate of 2.85, notably ahead of other top players such as Rory McIlroy (2.11) and Jon Rahm (2.09) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## How do the course characteristics of Shinnecock Hills potentially impact the performance of top contenders like Wyndham Clark versus Rory McIlroy?

Shinnecock Hills Course Length | Par 70, approx. 7,440 yards [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/06/15/nine-things-to-know-at-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-2026-us-open) |
Rory McIlroy Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 0.793 (2026 season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/28237/rory-mcilroy/stats) |
Wyndham Clark Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 94th (2026 season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/51766/wyndham-clark/stats) |

**Shinnecock Hills presents a formidable test of precision and mental fortitude**

Shinnecock Hills presents a formidable test of precision and mental fortitude. The par 70 course spans approximately 7,440 yards, featuring a unique triangular routing that exposes golfers to diverse prevailing winds on almost every hole [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/about-shinnecock-hills-golf-club.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/06/15/nine-things-to-know-at-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-2026-us-open)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/shinnecock-hills-golf-club-course-guide-us-open-2026/)[[^]](https://golf.com/lifestyle/shinnecock-hills-wayne-morrison-championship-william-flynn/)[[^]](https://www.27east.com/us-open/article_99c266a3-8b09-4b32-a5ab-86f20458b58a.html)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/behind-the-architectural-curtain-shinnecock-hills-new-york-pt-1/). Its defenses include elevated greens with severe run-offs, firm and deep bunkers, and challenging native rough, collectively demanding precise aerial shot-making and delicate recovery skills [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/about-shinnecock-hills-golf-club.html)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/shinnecock-hills-golf-club-course-guide-us-open-2026/)[[^]](https://golf.com/instruction/which-holes-make-shinnecock-hills-so-hard-timeless-tips/). These conditions inherently require immense mental patience and the minimization of errors [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/shinnecock-hills-golf-club-course-guide-us-open-2026/)[[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866113.html)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rory-mcilroy-responds-asked-too-002923858.html). While adjustments for wider fairways and slower greens were implemented in 2026, the course's inherent difficulty remained high [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/shinnecock-hills-golf-club-course-guide-us-open-2026/)[[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866113.html)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rory-mcilroy-responds-asked-too-002923858.html).

Wyndham Clark's strategic play suits Shinnecock's demanding variability. During the 2026 U.S. Open, Clark demonstrated patient, strategic play and opportunistic scoring, ultimately building a commanding lead [[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866113.html)[[^]](https://www.hitc.com/wyndham-clarks-comments-prove-rory-mcilroy-may-have-just-made-a-big-mistake-ahead-of-the-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13555595/us-open-wyndham-clark-builds-four-shot-lead-at-windy-shinnecock-hills-with-rory-mcilroy-scottie-scheffler-chasing)[[^]](https://www.tsn.ca/golf/video/2026/06/21/how-has-wyndham-clark-been-able-to-tame-shinnecock-hills-heading-into-final-round/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rory-mcilroy-responds-asked-too-002923858.html). Conversely, Rory McIlroy encountered struggles with consistency during the same event, particularly on the back nine, and faced criticism for excessive practice in extreme wind conditions [[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866113.html)[[^]](https://www.hitc.com/wyndham-clarks-comments-prove-rory-mcilroy-may-have-just-made-a-big-mistake-ahead-of-the-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13555595/us-open-wyndham-clark-builds-four-shot-lead-at-windy-shinnecock-hills-with-rory-mcilroy-scottie-scheffler-chasing)[[^]](https://www.tsn.ca/golf/video/2026/06/21/how-has-wyndham-clark-been-able-to-tame-shinnecock-hills-heading-into-final-round/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rory-mcilroy-responds-asked-too-002923858.html). Clark's approach appeared better adapted to the course's challenging and variable nature.

Their statistical profiles highlight distinct strengths and potential course challenges. Rory McIlroy boasts elite driving statistics, with 0.793 Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 0.707 Strokes Gained: Approach to Green in the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/28237/rory-mcilroy/stats). Wyndham Clark also shows strong Strokes Gained: Approach to Green, ranking 14th in the 2026 season, alongside efficient putting, where he ranks 4th in Putting Average [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/51766/wyndham-clark/stats). However, Clark's lower rankings in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (94th), Driving Accuracy (91st), and Scrambling from Rough (128th) in 2026 could pose significant challenges on a course like Shinnecock [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/51766/wyndham-clark/stats). Although McIlroy is ranked 2nd and Clark 18th by DataGolf, these are general skill estimates that do not specifically account for the unique demands of Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Scottie Scheffler emerged as a primary favorite in prediction markets, exhibiting a 13-15% win probability, and was considered a bullish catalyst due to his world ranking and potential to achieve the career grand slam [[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-odds-to-win-live-win-probability-shinnecock-hills-2026)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/).** Polymarket’s 2026 U.S. Open Winner **market** supported this sentiment, showing Scheffler as the leading outcome with a **13%** implied **probability** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner). He also held the top rank according to DataGolf, with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, with other top contenders including Rory McIlroy (2nd rank, 2.11 strokes gained) and Jon Rahm (3rd rank, 2.09 strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

**Bearish catalysts for market favorites included the inherent difficulty of Shinnecock Hills, characterized by tight fairways and treacherous greens, coupled with expected windy conditions and the prospect of high volatility in player performance [[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-odds-to-win-live-win-probability-shinnecock-hills-2026)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/).** Furthermore, the Polymarket contract structure introduced a bearish exposure, as it specifies that an eligible listed player resolves to “No” if eliminated from contention, allowing early setbacks to quickly compress prices [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner). **Market** activity observed a sharp increase in volume at the tournament's commencement, with prices for favorites rapidly adjusting to real-time performance data [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 19, 2026
- **Closes:** July 19, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Scottie Scheffler emerged as a primary favorite in prediction markets, exhibiting a 13-**15%** win **probability**, and was considered a bullish catalyst due to his world ranking and potential to achieve the career grand slam [^] [^] [^] .
- Polymarket’s 2026 U.S.
- Open Winner **market** supported this sentiment, showing Scheffler as the leading outcome with a **13%** implied **probability** [^] .
- He also held the top rank according to DataGolf, with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, with other top contenders including Rory McIlroy (2nd rank, 2.11 strokes gained) and Jon Rahm (3rd rank, 2.09 strokes gained) [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOP20-USO26-JAS: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-BLEE: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-HDUP: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-CPHI: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-RBBCAN26-BKOH: NO (Jun 15, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

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