# Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks

VGK vs ANA (R2 - 2026)

Updated: May 13, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Hockey

HTML: /markets/sports/hockey/series-winner-vegas-golden-knights-vs-anaheim-ducks/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Vegas Golden Knights to win the series against the Anaheim Ducks, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Vegas Golden Knights secured Game 5, now leading the series 3-2.** - DraftKings currently favors Vegas to win the series and also Game 6.
- Anaheim hosts Game 6, with a strong historical home record at Honda Center.
- Anaheim faces significant injury challenges to key players, including Mrazek.
- Vegas Golden Knights also face injury challenges, including Jeremy Lauzon's absence.
- Exceptional or poor goaltending significantly impacts **market** sentiment for the series.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model sees 83.8% for Vegas to win vs.** 79c **market** price, a +4.8pp gap with a 1.3x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 79.0% | 83.8% | Model higher by 4.8pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 83.8% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 79.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +4.8pp
- Expected Return: +6.1%
- R-Score: 0.69
- Total Volume: $883,828.88
- 24h Volume: $58,419.78
- Open Interest: $545,241.5

- Expiration: June 2, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has followed a volatile but clear upward trend, starting near 1.0% and reaching a current price of 80.0%. The price action has been highly reactive to individual game outcomes in the playoff series. The market saw a 15.0 percentage point spike following the Golden Knights' win in Game 1 and a subsequent 18.0 percentage point drop to 60.0% when the Ducks won Game 2 to tie the series. This pattern repeated, with a 17.0 point spike after a Vegas win in Game 3, followed by a 15.0 point drop back to 60.0% when Anaheim tied the series again with a victory in Game 4. The most recent 20.0 percentage point spike to the current 80.0% price was driven by the Golden Knights securing a crucial 3-2 overtime victory in Game 5.

Throughout the series, the 60.0% price level has acted as a key support floor, with the market recalibrating to this point after each Golden Knights loss. Conversely, the 75.0% to 80.0% range has served as a resistance level, representing the market's peak confidence following a Vegas victory. The substantial total trading volume of 263,874 contracts indicates a highly liquid and engaged market. The price movements suggest that traders rapidly incorporated the results of each game, with significant price swings immediately following each win or loss.

The current price of 80.0% reflects strong market sentiment and high conviction that the Vegas Golden Knights will win the series. Having just won a pivotal Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead, the market has priced in a high probability of them securing one more victory in the remaining two potential games. The chart demonstrates that while the Golden Knights have been favored throughout, market confidence has fluctuated significantly based on the momentum shifts within the series.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Vegas Golden Knights

#### 📈 May 13, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 60.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 20.0 percentage point spike in the "Vegas Golden Knights" outcome on May 13, 2026, was the team securing a crucial victory in Game 5 of the series. On that date, Pavel Dorofeyev’s overtime goal lifted the Vegas Golden Knights to a 3-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks, giving Vegas a 3-2 series lead going into Game 6 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/news/dorofeyev-s-overtime-winner-seals-golden-knights-3-2-win-over-ducks)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/anaheim-ducks-vegas-golden-knights-game-5-recap-may-12-2026)[[^]](https://apnews.com/article/ducks-golden-knights-score-5164b20d494e5ec2a6060685240e8c95). This significant development, a traditional news event, directly increased the perceived probability of the Golden Knights winning the series. Social media activity is not identified as a primary driver or accelerant based on the provided information, and is thus irrelevant in this context.

#### 📉 May 11, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 75.0% to 60.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop in the Vegas Golden Knights' prediction market price on May 11, 2026, was their 4-3 defeat by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Second Round, which occurred on May 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU7oKcU5Blg)[[^]](https://www.latimes.com/sports/hockey/ducks/story/2026-05-10/ducks-vegas-golden-knights-nhl-playoffs-game-4)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/vgk-vs-ana/2026/05/10/2025030244). The Ducks' victory, marked by an effective power play and key contributions from players like Cutter Gauthier, reduced the Golden Knights' perceived probability of winning the series [[^]](https://www.latimes.com/sports/hockey/ducks/story/2026-05-10/ducks-vegas-golden-knights-nhl-playoffs-game-4)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/vgk-vs-ana/2026/05/10/2025030244). Based on the provided sources, no social media activity was identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or relevant factor in this market movement.

#### 📉 May 07, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 60.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the Vegas Golden Knights' series winner price drop on May 7, 2026, was the Anaheim Ducks' victory over the Golden Knights in Game 2 on May 6, 2026 [[^]](https://franchisesportsmedia.com/vegas-golden-knights-vs-anaheim-ducks-nhl-playoffs-second-round-game-2-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thescore.com/nhl/event/34824)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/schedule/playoff-series/2026/series-l/ducks-vs-goldenknights)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/news/dorofeyev-s-overtime-winner-seals-golden-knights-3-2-win-over-ducks). The Ducks' 3-1 win tied the series at one game apiece, logically decreasing the perceived probability of the Golden Knights winning the overall series [[^]](https://franchisesportsmedia.com/vegas-golden-knights-vs-anaheim-ducks-nhl-playoffs-second-round-game-2-2026/)[[^]](https://www.thescore.com/nhl/event/34824)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/schedule/playoff-series/2026/series-l/ducks-vs-goldenknights)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/news/dorofeyev-s-overtime-winner-seals-golden-knights-3-2-win-over-ducks). This traditional news of the game outcome appears to have led the price movement. No social media activity was identified as a driver from the provided sources.

#### 📈 May 05, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 63.0% to 78.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the price movement was the Vegas Golden Knights' win in Game 1 against the Anaheim Ducks on May 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2026-anaheim-ducks-vs-vegas-golden-knights-western-second-round.html). Following Vegas' 3–1 victory, which featured Ivan Barbashev's go-ahead goal and a disputed icing call [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260504_ANA@LV/)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/48682195/golden-knights-take-ducks-game-1-playoff-series), the outcome price for "Vegas Golden Knights" winning the series increased by 15.0 percentage points on May 05, 2026 [[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2026-anaheim-ducks-vs-vegas-golden-knights-western-second-round.html). This immediate market reaction after taking a 1-0 series lead directly explains the surge in confidence. Social media was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or mostly noise, as no relevant social media activity was identified in the provided information and thus appears to be irrelevant.

### Outcome: Anaheim Ducks

#### 📉 May 09, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 42.0% to 24.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 18.0 percentage point drop in the "Anaheim Ducks" outcome on May 09, 2026, was the Vegas Golden Knights' victory in Game 3 of their playoff series on May 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/vgk-vs-ana/2026/05/08/2025030243)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-3-recap-may-8-2026-x2553)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/recap/NHL_20260508_LV@ANA/). Recaps and highlights of this Golden Knights win were widely published on May 9, 2026, leading to a decrease in the perceived probability of the Ducks winning the series [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlSH0xXhXJE)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/nhl-playoffs-round-2-game-3-vegas-golden-knights-vs-anaheim-ducks-may-08-2026-game-boxscore-44466)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-3-recap-may-8-2026-x2553)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL_peHoKH10). While reports of Golden Knights forward Mark Stone sustaining an injury during Game 3 also emerged, the team's decisive win likely outweighed this, reducing the Ducks' series victory odds [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-3-recap-may-8-2026-x2553)[[^]](https://www.latimes.com/sports/hockey/ducks/story/2026-05-10/ducks-vegas-golden-knights-nhl-playoffs-game-4). Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this price movement [[^]](https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/06/analysis-golden-knights-offense-playoff-vanishing/).

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Vegas Golden Knights win their 2nd Round series against the Anaheim Ducks in the 2026 NHL playoffs, and "No" otherwise, as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on May 2, 2026, at 11:45am EDT and will close either after a winner is declared or by June 1, 2026, at 9:30pm EDT. Payouts are projected 5 minutes after closing, with resolution based on sources from ESPN, NHL, and Fox Sports.

## Market Discussion

The market overwhelmingly favors the Vegas Golden Knights to win the series, showing a 79% probability as they currently lead 3-2. Despite this strong market prediction, the limited discussion primarily consists of traders expressing support and hope for the Anaheim Ducks to win, with posts such as "ducksss" and "ducks please win today." There are no explicit arguments from traders for the Golden Knights' victory, beyond the implied consensus reflected in the high market probabilities.

## How do the Golden Knights' and Ducks' special teams units compare in effectiveness throughout the 2026 playoff series?

Vegas Playoff Penalty Kill % | 93.8% [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/nhl-edge/nhl-edge-stats-vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-playoffs-2026)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nhl/golden-knights-lived-on-their-penalty-kill-before-the-ducks-finally-made-them-pay) |
Anaheim Power Play % (vs Edmonton) | 50.0% (8-for-16) [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/nhl-edge/nhl-edge-stats-vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-playoffs-2026)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/anaheim-ducks-vegas-golden-knights-2026-second-round-series-preview) |
Anaheim Power Play Goals in Game 4 | 2 goals [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260510_LV@ANA/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026)[[^]](https://dicecitysports.com/2026/05/07/golden-knights-penalty-kill-ducks-game-2/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260510_LV@ANA/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nhl/golden-knights-lived-on-their-penalty-kill-before-the-ducks-finally-made-them-pay) |

**The special teams units displayed shifting effectiveness throughout the 2026 playoff series**

The special teams units displayed shifting effectiveness throughout the 2026 playoff series. The Golden Knights' penalty kill entered the series with exceptional performance, maintaining a highly effective percentage of **93.8%** and being recognized as among the best in the postseason [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/nhl-edge/nhl-edge-stats-vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-playoffs-2026)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nhl/golden-knights-lived-on-their-penalty-kill-before-the-ducks-finally-made-them-pay)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/anaheim-ducks-vegas-golden-knights-2026-second-round-series-preview). This strong defensive stand was particularly notable against the Ducks, whose man-advantage unit had previously shown significant potency, converting **50.0%** (8-for-16) in their preceding series against Edmonton [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/nhl-edge/nhl-edge-stats-vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-playoffs-2026)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/anaheim-ducks-vegas-golden-knights-2026-second-round-series-preview).

Vegas's penalty kill maintained its effectiveness through early series games. The Golden Knights successfully suppressed Anaheim's power play, achieving a remarkable run of 21 consecutive kills before Game 4 [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nhl/golden-knights-lived-on-their-penalty-kill-before-the-ducks-finally-made-them-pay)[[^]](https://dicecitysports.com/2026/05/07/golden-knights-penalty-kill-ducks-game-2/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260510_LV@ANA/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026). A prime example occurred in Game 2 on May 6, 2026, when Anaheim failed to score on all five of their power-play opportunities, including a crucial five-on-three chance [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/matchup?gameId=401871424)[[^]](https://dicecitysports.com/2026/05/07/golden-knights-penalty-kill-ducks-game-2/).

Anaheim's power play decisively broke through in a pivotal Game 4. On May 10, 2026, the Ducks scored two power-play goals, including one by Killorn, to secure a 4-3 victory and even the series at 2-2 [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nhl/golden-knights-lived-on-their-penalty-kill-before-the-ducks-finally-made-them-pay)[[^]](https://dicecitysports.com/2026/05/07/golden-knights-penalty-kill-ducks-game-2/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260510_LV@ANA/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026). Concurrently, the Golden Knights' power play contributed offensively, converting 1-for-4 (**25.0%**) in Game 2 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/matchup?gameId=401871424)[[^]](https://dicecitysports.com/2026/05/07/golden-knights-penalty-kill-ducks-game-2/) and adding another power-play goal by Dorofeyev in Game 4 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260510_LV@ANA/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026).

## What do the latest moneyline odds from major sportsbooks like DraftKings indicate for the winner of Game 6 and the overall series?

Game 6 Favorite | Vegas Golden Knights (DraftKings) [[^]](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/vgk-golden-knights-%40-ana-ducks/34122583) |
2026 Series Favorite | Vegas Golden Knights [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/opening-odds-for-golden-knights-vs-ducks-in-2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-second-round/)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-ducks-series-preview-prediction-pick/) |
2026 Series Odds | Golden Knights -190, Ducks +160 (DraftKings) [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/opening-odds-for-golden-knights-vs-ducks-in-2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-second-round/)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-ducks-series-preview-prediction-pick/) |

**The Vegas Golden Knights are strongly favored for both Game 6 and the series**

The Vegas Golden Knights are strongly favored for both Game 6 and the series. Based on the latest moneyline odds from DraftKings, the Golden Knights are currently predicted to win Game 6 against the Anaheim Ducks [[^]](https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/vgk-golden-knights-%40-ana-ducks/34122583). Beyond the individual game, they are also positioned as favorites to secure victory in the entire 2026 second-round series [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/opening-odds-for-golden-knights-vs-ducks-in-2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-second-round/)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-ducks-series-preview-prediction-pick/).

Opening odds clearly position Vegas as the series favorite. In the 2026 second-round series winner **market**, DraftKings' initial lines designated the Vegas Golden Knights as -190 favorites, with the Anaheim Ducks listed as +160 underdogs [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/opening-odds-for-golden-knights-vs-ducks-in-2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-second-round/)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-ducks-series-preview-prediction-pick/). This **market** valuation strongly implies that Vegas is expected to win the series, aligning with the prediction **market** for 'Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks (VGK vs ANA R2 - 2026)' [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/opening-odds-for-golden-knights-vs-ducks-in-2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-second-round/)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/02/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-ducks-series-preview-prediction-pick/).

## What are the latest injury reports for key players on the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks ahead of the crucial final games of the series?

Jeremy Lauzon Status | Ruled out for second-round series (May 4, 2026) [[^]](https://sinbin.vegas/injury-report/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VEG/2026_injuries.html) |
Petr Mrazek Status | Out for remainder of 2025-26 season [[^]](https://www.lines.com/nhl/teams/ducks/injuries)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/ANA/2026_injuries.html) |
Jansen Harkins Recovery | Approximately four weeks [[^]](https://www.lines.com/nhl/teams/ducks/injuries) |

**The Vegas Golden Knights face significant injury challenges, particularly on defense and at captain**

The Vegas Golden Knights face significant injury challenges, particularly on defense and at captain. Defenseman Jeremy Lauzon has been ruled out for the entirety of their second-round series against the Anaheim Ducks due to an undisclosed injury, a decision announced on May 4, 2026 [[^]](https://sinbin.vegas/injury-report/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VEG/2026_injuries.html). Additionally, captain Mark Stone attempted to return for Game 3 but was unable to continue playing [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nhl/2026/05/10/golden-knights-mark-stone-injury/e7281106-4cb2-11f1-97e7-22c6c29ff0d8_story.html)[[^]](https://sinbin.vegas/injury-report/)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/mark-stone-injury-status-update-may-10-2026)[[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/goldenknights/golden-knights-to-be-without-captain-for-game-4-in-anaheim-3822308/). Before his injury, Stone had been a key contributor, recording three goals and four assists in nine playoff games, following a regular season performance of 73 points in 60 games [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nhl/2026/05/10/golden-knights-mark-stone-injury/e7281106-4cb2-11f1-97e7-22c6c29ff0d8_story.html)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/mark-stone-injury-status-update-may-10-2026).

Anaheim Ducks are navigating the series with a substantial list of injured players. Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2025-26 season after undergoing hip surgery [[^]](https://www.lines.com/nhl/teams/ducks/injuries)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/ANA/2026_injuries.html). Center Jansen Harkins is expected to miss approximately four weeks while recovering from hand surgery [[^]](https://www.lines.com/nhl/teams/ducks/injuries). Captain Radko Gudas has been managing a lower-body injury since Game 1 of the first round on April 20, 2026 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/anaheim-ducks-radko-gudas-injury-status-update-second-round-nhl-playoffs)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/radko-gudas-injury-status-update-may-10-2026). Gudas did not participate in Game 4 of the series against Vegas on May 11, despite initially being considered a "game-time decision" [[^]](https://www.lines.com/nhl/teams/ducks/injuries)[[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/radko-gudas-injury-status-update-may-10-2026).

Recent games have added more players to the Ducks' injury report. Defenseman Drew Helleson was ruled out for Game 5 on May 12, 2026, due to an undisclosed injury [[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/ANA/2026_injuries.html). On the same date, forward Ryan Poehling did not return to Game 5 after sustaining an upper-body injury [[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/ANA/2026_injuries.html).

## Which public sources provide advanced 5-on-5 metrics, such as Corsi For % (CF%) and Expected Goals For % (xGF%), for the Golden Knights vs. Ducks 2026 series?

Primary Advanced Stat Source | Natural Stat Trick (provides team point projections, standings for future seasons, Corsi, Fenwick data, and expected goals) [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/16m0isw/good_resources_for_hockey_analytics/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/) |
Corsi For % (CF%) Definition | Percentage of all shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots) taken by a team at even strength [[^]](https://captaincalculator.com/sports/hockey/corsi-calculator/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsi_(statistic))[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G47lU3CSbkE)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/advanced_stats.html)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/) |
Expected Goals For % (xGF%) Definition | Share of total expected goals in a game or season that a team earned, based on the quality of scoring chances created, considering shot location and type [[^]](https://www.gamblingsite.com/blog/nhl-expected-goals-xg-analytics/)[[^]](https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2020/05/06/advanced-hockey-statistics/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/) |

**Public sources offer comprehensive advanced 5-on-5 hockey metrics**

Public sources offer comprehensive advanced 5-on-5 hockey metrics. Several online resources provide advanced 5-on-5 hockey metrics essential for in-depth analysis of series such as the Golden Knights vs. Ducks 2026. Key resources include Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, and Hockey-Reference.com, which collectively offer a wealth of individual player and team statistical data [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/16m0isw/good_resources_for_hockey_analytics/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/)[[^]](https://www.secondcityhockey.com/advanced-hockey-statistics-explainer-faqs-walkthroughs/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/analytics/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/advanced_stats.html). Natural Stat Trick is particularly noted for its comprehensive data, including team point projections and standings for future seasons like the 2025-2026 NHL season, which can be valuable for pre-series analysis. It also provides detailed Corsi and Fenwick data, as well as expected goals [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/16m0isw/good_resources_for_hockey_analytics/)[[^]](https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2020/05/06/advanced-hockey-statistics/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/)[[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm)[[^]](https://www.secondcityhockey.com/advanced-hockey-statistics-explainer-faqs-walkthroughs/). Evolving-Hockey serves as another extensive source for advanced NHL statistics, featuring metrics such as Corsi (CF/CA) and Expected Goals (xGF/xGA), complete with historical data and various analytical tools [[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/)[[^]](https://www.secondcityhockey.com/advanced-hockey-statistics-explainer-faqs-walkthroughs/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/). Additionally, Hockey-Reference.com functions as a central hub for advanced NHL statistics, providing Corsi (EV), Fenwick (EV), and other skater advanced statistics [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/16m0isw/good_resources_for_hockey_analytics/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/analytics/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/advanced_stats.html).

Key advanced metrics include Corsi For % and Expected Goals For %. Two commonly used advanced metrics for evaluating team performance are Corsi For % (CF%) and Expected Goals For % (xGF%). Corsi For % (CF%) is defined as the percentage of all shot attempts—including shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots—taken by a team at even strength [[^]](https://captaincalculator.com/sports/hockey/corsi-calculator/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsi_(statistic))[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G47lU3CSbkE)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/advanced_stats.html)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/). Expected Goals For % (xGF%) measures a team's share of total expected goals based on the quality of scoring chances created; this metric factors in elements such as shot location and type to estimate the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal [[^]](https://www.gamblingsite.com/blog/nhl-expected-goals-xg-analytics/)[[^]](https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2020/05/06/advanced-hockey-statistics/)[[^]](https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/general-terms/)[[^]](https://www.secondcityhockey.com/advanced-hockey-statistics-explainer-faqs-walkthroughs/).

## How does the Anaheim Ducks' performance record at the Honda Center in the 2026 playoffs factor into their chances of winning Game 6?

2025-26 Regular Season Home Record | 24-13-4 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/anaheim-ducks-home-record) |
2026 R1 Game 6 Home Record | 7-0 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-ing-advance-to-second-round-after-clinch-first-round-series-vs-oilers-in-game-6) |
Franchise Home Clincher Record | 12-4 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-ing-advance-to-second-round-after-clinch-first-round-series-vs-oilers-in-game-6) |

**The Anaheim Ducks possess a significant home-ice advantage at the Honda Center**

The Anaheim Ducks possess a significant home-ice advantage at the Honda Center. This is demonstrated by their strong 2025–26 regular-season home record of 24–13–4 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/anaheim-ducks-home-record). This home strength is notably amplified in critical playoff scenarios, as evidenced by their improved 7–0 record on home ice in Game 6 opportunities during their 2026 first-round series against Edmonton [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-ing-advance-to-second-round-after-clinch-first-round-series-vs-oilers-in-game-6). Historically, the franchise also boasts a strong performance in series-clinching games played at home, holding a record of 12–4, which further highlights their elevated performance level in high-stakes home games [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-ing-advance-to-second-round-after-clinch-first-round-series-vs-oilers-in-game-6).

The Honda Center's atmosphere has already impacted the current series. Anaheim successfully leveraged this advantage to secure a 4–3 victory in Game 4 against the Vegas Golden Knights [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/playoffs/vegas-golden-knights-anaheim-ducks-game-4-recap-may-10-2026). With the Golden Knights currently leading the series 3–2 after Game 5, the upcoming Game 6 at Anaheim's Honda Center on May 14, 2026, presents another crucial opportunity for the Ducks to capitalize on their established home strength [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/boxscore/NHL_20260512_ANA@LV/)[[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2026-anaheim-ducks-vs-vegas-golden-knights-western-second-round.html).

The Ducks' strong home performance record impacts their win **probability**. The team's record at the Honda Center, particularly in Game 6-type situations, is considered a significant factor in estimating their win **probability** for Game 6 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhlseries/nhl-series-winner/kxnhlseries-26vgkanar2)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-playoffs-who-will-win-series-ducks-vs-golden-knights). This **probability**, in turn, plays a crucial role in influencing the "Series Winner" **market** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhlseries/nhl-series-winner/kxnhlseries-26vgkanar2)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-playoffs-who-will-win-series-ducks-vs-golden-knights).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Exceptional or poor goaltending significantly impacts market sentiment [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ)[[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/betting/stanley-cup-betting-trends/)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses).** Elite goaltending, demonstrated through high-danger save percentage and goals saved above expected, is a major asset [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ). Conversely, inconsistent goaltending or a goalie struggling under pressure can be a significant liability [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ). Strong special teams, including high-performing power play and penalty kill units, are crucial, as one or two special teams goals can completely swing momentum and the outcome of a series [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses). Depth scoring, with contributions from third lines, defensemen, and role players, becomes critical when top lines are neutralized [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ). Lack of depth scoring or weak special teams can hinder a team's chances [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses).

**Effective in-series coaching adjustments to defensive structures, matchups, and systems can impact a team's performance and market perception [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ).** Teams that can adapt defensively, limit high-quality chances, and execute their system under pressure are positioned for success [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ). Physicality and endurance are important for withstanding the increased intensity of playoff hockey [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses). Psychological resilience, allowing teams to stay calm under pressure and avoid emotional swings, tends to lead to better performance [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses). In contrast, poor defensive play or structure, mental fragility, injury troubles, or a lack of discipline (taking too many penalties) can severely hamper a team's chances [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l84C0KlDJyQ)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/what-contributes-to-nhl-playoff-series-wins-and-losses).

**Key series milestones also serve as catalysts for market probability shifts.** Winning Game 1 on home ice significantly increases series win **probability** [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLAnalytics/comments/1syd0av/how_series_state_predicts_nhl_playoff_outcomes_a/). A team taking a 3-1 lead has a very high **probability** of winning the series [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLAnalytics/comments/1syd0av/how_series_state_predicts_nhl_playoff_outcomes_a/). Furthermore, a team with a 3-0 lead has a **98.1%** series win rate [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLAnalytics/comments/1syd0av/how_series_state_predicts_nhl_playoff_outcomes_a/). Road momentum heading into a Game 7 appears to be a strong predictor [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLAnalytics/comments/1syd0av/how_series_state_predicts_nhl_playoff_outcomes_a/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 02, 2026
- **Closes:** June 02, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Exceptional or poor goaltending significantly impacts **market** sentiment [^] [^] [^] .
- Elite goaltending, demonstrated through high-danger save percentage and goals saved above expected, is a major asset [^] .
- Conversely, inconsistent goaltending or a goalie struggling under pressure can be a significant liability [^] .
- Strong special teams, including high-performing power play and penalty kill units, are crucial, as one or two special teams goals can completely swing momentum and the outcome of a series [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 18 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 9 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXNHLSERIES-26PHICARR2-PHI: NO (May 10, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26PHICARR2-CAR: YES (May 10, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26LACOLR1-LA: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26LACOLR1-COL: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26ANAEDMR1-EDM: NO (May 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

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