# Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

Updated: August 6, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: NFL, raiders, trade, football, maxx crosby, Player/Coach Movement

HTML: /markets/sports/nfl/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Maxx Crosby to play for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.** The **market**'s resolution rule, favoring the Raiders if no new team is officially joined by August 31, 2026, likely contributes to this consensus.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Maxx Crosby will likely remain with the Raiders due to his contract and the August 31 market deadline.** - Maxx Crosby continues with the Raiders after a proposed March 2026 trade fell through.
- Dallas Cowboys are a longshot; no imminent trade is reported before the August 31 deadline.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **0.5%** **probability** vs 0c **market** price, offering 333x payout if correct despite low evidence.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| New York Jets | 0.3% | 0.5% | No evidence links Crosby to the Jets, and the market deadline is August 31, 2026. |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.1% | 0.4% | No specific evidence links Maxx Crosby to the Colts by the August 31st market deadline. |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.2% | 0.5% | No evidence links Crosby to the Titans, and the market deadline is August 31, 2026. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| New York Jets | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.3% | 6.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.1% | — |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.1% | — |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.1% | — |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 74.2% | 81.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.1% | — |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.1% | — |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.2% | — |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.1% | — |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.1% | — |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.2% | — |
| New England Patriots | 0.1% | — |
| Houston Texans | 0.1% | — |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.1% | — |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.1% | — |
| Washington Commanders | 0.1% | — |
| Denver Broncos | 0.1% | — |
| New York Giants | 0.1% | — |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.1% | — |
| Other | 0.0% | — |

- Expiration: September 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited no price movement, holding static at a 0.4% probability for a "YES" outcome since its inception. The price chart is a flat line, with no spikes, drops, or identifiable trends. This price stasis is a direct result of market inactivity. Total volume traded is zero contracts, indicating a complete absence of participation and conviction from traders.

The market's dormant state and near-zero probability pricing are consistent with available external information. Reports from early August 2026 place Maxx Crosby at the Las Vegas Raiders' training camp. The market price reflects a strong consensus that he will remain with the Raiders, treating the possibility of a move to another team in 2026 as a negligible risk. The lack of trading volume suggests there is no speculative interest or counter-information to challenge this view.

Given the zero-volume environment, standard technical indicators such as support and resistance levels are not meaningful. The chart does not reflect price discovery or a contested viewpoint. Instead, the market's inactivity itself is the primary signal, conveying a settled and unambiguous sentiment that Crosby's team affiliation for the period in question is not in doubt.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 July 28, 2026: 9.3pp spike

Price increased from 0.7% to 10.0%

**Outcome:** Dallas Cowboys

**What happened:** The provided research does not contain information about a specific event or announcement on July 28, 2026, that would explain the 9.3 percentage point spike for Maxx Crosby playing for the Dallas Cowboys in 2026. While the Dallas Cowboys have frequently been linked to Maxx Crosby in media reports and engaged in trade discussions [[^]](https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/cowboys/article/cowboys-big-moves-trade-jerry-jones-training-camp-22359275.php)[[^]](https://www.si.com/nfl/cowboys/onsi/dallas-cowboys-maxx-crosby-chatter-resurfaces-after-mandatory-minicamps)[[^]](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/nfl/news/nfl-trade-rumors-cowboys-linked-to-elite-106-5-million-all-pro-in-move-that-could-reshape-nfc-race/articleshow/131511950.cms), the available sources do not identify a new, specific development on that date. As of early August 2026, Crosby remains under contract and is participating in training camp with the Las Vegas Raiders [[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/maxx-crosby-return-2026-training-camp-raiders-defense)[[^]](https://atozsports.com/nfl/las-vegas-raiders-news/thomas-booker-details-having-defensive-end-maxx-crosby-back-training-camp/)[[^]](https://news3lv.com/sports/content/sports-maxx-crosby-raiders-hold-1st-practice-year-2-of-dan-mullen-era-underway-at-unlv). Based on the provided information, social media activity was not identifiable as a primary driver.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to the next team Maxx Crosby officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; an official signing can trigger immediate resolution. A specific team's option resolves "Yes" if he joins that team, while all other options resolve "No".

If he does not officially join a new team, "Las Vegas Raiders" resolves "Yes". The "Other" option resolves "Yes" if he joins an unlisted team, is released and not signed, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by the deadline. Transfers between senior and reserve/affiliate teams are not considered, and resolution relies on official team announcements or credible media reports.

## Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly expect Maxx Crosby to remain with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, evidenced by the 83% probability, due to his substantial contract extension through 2027 with significant cap and dead-cap implications, and his stated desire to stay. Arguments for him moving, primarily to the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles, are based on reported offseason interest, but these prospects are seen as low given the financial hurdles and a collapsed trade to the Ravens over medical concerns. The consensus is that only a "blockbuster offer" could overcome the existing financial and personal commitments keeping him in Las Vegas.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $72,659.91 | $0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $8,308.22 | $0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $11,537.68 | $0 |
| Buffalo Bills | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $7,640.71 | $0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $845,171.17 | $0 |
| Chicago Bears | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $296,725.49 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $7,726.52 | $0 |
| Cleveland Browns | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $5,934.3 | $0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.2% | 11.4% | 7.3% | $80,660.28 | $0 |
| Denver Broncos | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,638.63 | $0 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $14,292.36 | $0 |
| Green Bay Packers | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | $30,052.89 | $0 |
| Houston Texans | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $5,974.74 | $0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $1,149,880 | $0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | $434,614.03 | $0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | $34,285.66 | $0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 74.4% | 91.4% | 74.2% | $13,654.22 | $0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $5,226.92 | $0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $404,758.55 | $0 |
| Miami Dolphins | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $3,818.46 | $0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $60,317.79 | $0 |
| New England Patriots | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $6,538.9 | $0 |
| New Orleans Saints | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $7,136.07 | $0 |
| New York Giants | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,042.15 | $0 |
| New York Jets | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $1,201,381.96 | $0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.3% | 6.3% | 0.3% | $11,457.77 | $0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | — | 0.3% | 0.2% | $7,026.26 | $0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | $617,060.78 | $0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | — | 0.2% | 0.3% | $7,448.9 | $0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $69,648.27 | $0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $887,570.02 | $0 |
| Washington Commanders | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $5,168.47 | $0 |

## Which NFL teams present the most realistic trade destinations for Maxx Crosby based on 2026 salary cap space and roster needs?

Current Team (2026 season) | Las Vegas Raiders (as of August 6, 2026) [[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://overthecap.com/player/maxx-crosby/7897)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/most-relentless-highest-motored-player-141558059.html) |
2026 Salary Cap Hit | $35,791,250 [[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://overthecap.com/player/maxx-crosby/7897)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/most-relentless-highest-motored-player-141558059.html) |
Potential Trade Destinations | Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears [[^]](https://news.bet365.com/en-us/article/will-maxx-crosby-be-traded-value-and-possible-landing-spots/2026073019313571428)[[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/maxx-crosby-klint-kubiak-trade-news/) |

**Maxx Crosby's 2026 contract presents a significant cap challenge for any trade suitor**

Maxx Crosby's 2026 contract presents a significant cap challenge for any trade suitor. He is under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders for the 2026 season, carrying a substantial salary cap hit of **$35,791,250** as of August 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://overthecap.com/player/maxx-crosby/7897)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/most-relentless-highest-motored-player-141558059.html). Any team considering acquiring Crosby would need to manage this large financial commitment, likely requiring contract restructures or clearing existing cap space [[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/maxx-crosby-klint-kubiak-trade-news/). The specific realism of team fits based on their 2026 salary cap space or detailed roster needs is not elaborated in the available information.

Despite being under contract, trade speculation around Maxx Crosby continues to circulate. An earlier proposed trade involving Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens during the 2026 offseason was ultimately voided due to a failed physical [[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/raiders/raiders-owner-davis-relieved-to-have-crosby-back-3732074/)[[^]](https://news.bet365.com/en-us/article/will-maxx-crosby-be-traded-value-and-possible-landing-spots/2026073019313571428)[[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/las-vegas-raiders/trade-rumors-the-athletic-maxx-crosby/)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/nfl-the-biggest-and-most-thrilling-league-worldwide/thread/forum/212/thread_id/65685/post_id/311627/page/4023)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/nfl-the-biggest-and-most-thrilling-league-worldwide/thread/forum/212/thread_id/65685/post_id/311627/page/4028). Moving into the 2026 season, the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears have been identified as potential landing spots for the defensive end [[^]](https://news.bet365.com/en-us/article/will-maxx-crosby-be-traded-value-and-possible-landing-spots/2026073019313571428)[[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/maxx-crosby-klint-kubiak-trade-news/). The Cowboys previously extended a significant offer for Crosby, while the Bears are noted as an emerging contender, possessing sufficient draft capital to potentially facilitate a trade [[^]](https://news.bet365.com/en-us/article/will-maxx-crosby-be-traded-value-and-possible-landing-spots/2026073019313571428)[[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/maxx-crosby-klint-kubiak-trade-news/).

## What were the specific medical reasons for Maxx Crosby's failed physical with the Baltimore Ravens in March 2026, and how do they affect his current trade value?

Reason for Failed Physical | Concerns regarding a degenerative issue in his left knee [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html) |
Prior Injury and Surgery | Torn meniscus in October 2025, followed by surgery in January 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48168371/whats-next-maxx-crosby-las-vegas-raiders-baltimore-ravens-fallout-canceled-trade)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html) |
Current Team Status | Remains with the Las Vegas Raiders and is not actively seeking a trade as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/maxx-crosby-raiders-ravens-trade-march-2026/)[[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/raiders/raiders-owner-davis-relieved-to-have-crosby-back-3732074/)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year) |

**Maxx Crosby's trade failed due to a left knee issue**

Maxx Crosby's trade failed due to a left knee issue.
Maxx Crosby's proposed trade to the Baltimore Ravens in March 2026 was canceled after he failed his physical [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html). The failure was attributed to concerns about a degenerative issue in his left knee, which raised questions about his long-term durability [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html). This knee issue followed surgery in January 2026 to repair a torn meniscus, an injury Crosby sustained in October 2025 and played through for much of that season [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48168371/whats-next-maxx-crosby-las-vegas-raiders-baltimore-ravens-fallout-canceled-trade)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html). While these details have been reported, specific medical information regarding the failed physical has not been publicly disclosed [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year). The Baltimore Ravens consequently canceled the trade due to these significant health concerns [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-ravens-were-concerned-degenerative-155542302.html)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year).

Crosby remains with the Raiders, focused on recovery.
As of August 2026, Maxx Crosby remains a player for the Las Vegas Raiders and is not actively pursuing a trade [[^]](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/maxx-crosby-raiders-ravens-trade-march-2026/)[[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/raiders/raiders-owner-davis-relieved-to-have-crosby-back-3732074/)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year). He has publicly committed to the Raiders, stating that the canceled trade is "water under the bridge," and has been focusing on his recovery with the expectation of being ready for training camp [[^]](https://www.nfl.com/news/maxx-crosby-focused-on-recovery-moving-on-with-raiders-after-nixed-trade-water-under-the-bridge)[[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/maxx-crosby-lets-patience-take-the-lead-while-working-back-from-injury)[[^]](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/maxx-crosby-raiders-ravens-trade-march-2026/). The immediate effect of the failed physical on his trade status is the cancellation of the proposed trade and his continued tenure with the Raiders, with no current intent to pursue a new trade.

## How does the potential 2026 trade compensation for Maxx Crosby compare to historical trades for elite defensive ends like Khalil Mack and Von Miller?

Maxx Crosby Canceled Trade Offer | Two first-round draft picks (March 2026 [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/raiders-star-maxx-crosby-makes-094039403.html)) |
Khalil Mack Trade Compensation | Two first-round picks (2018 [[^]](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-land-khalil-mack-in-blockbuster-trade)) |
Von Miller Trade Compensation | 2nd and 3rd round pick (2021 [[^]](https://overthecap.com/paying-for-nfl-draft-picks-via-trades)) |

**A proposed 2026 trade for Maxx Crosby mirrored historical elite defensive end compensation**

A proposed 2026 trade for Maxx Crosby mirrored historical elite defensive end compensation. In March 2026, a potential deal would have sent Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for two first-round draft picks, though this trade was ultimately canceled due to concerns about Crosby's knee injury [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/raiders-star-maxx-crosby-makes-094039403.html). This proposed compensation is consistent with the 2018 trade that moved Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears, which also included two first-round picks among other selections [[^]](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-land-khalil-mack-in-blockbuster-trade).

Crosby's potential compensation significantly exceeded Von Miller's historical trade value. Historically, the suggested compensation for Crosby was notably higher than the 2021 trade for Von Miller, who was acquired for a second and third-round pick [[^]](https://overthecap.com/paying-for-nfl-draft-picks-via-trades). Maxx Crosby's **market** value was further solidified by a **$94** million contract extension signed during the 2025 offseason, establishing him as an elite defensive end prior to his proposed 2026 trade [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-free-agency-biggest-deals-linemen). Additionally, the **market** for top-tier edge rushers surged in 2025-2026, with players like Micah Parsons securing contracts averaging **$47** million per year, setting a high benchmark for defensive talent [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/micah-parsons-kenny-clark-trade-packers-cowboys).

Maxx Crosby's proposed trade valuation reflected his elite **market** standing. Therefore, the canceled 2026 trade offer for Maxx Crosby, involving two first-round picks, was comparable to Khalil Mack's historical compensation [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/raiders-star-maxx-crosby-makes-094039403.html)[[^]](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-land-khalil-mack-in-blockbuster-trade) and surpassed that of Von Miller [[^]](https://overthecap.com/paying-for-nfl-draft-picks-via-trades). However, the specific compensation for the actual trade of Maxx Crosby on March 6, 2026, is not detailed in the available information [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/american-football/player/crosby-maxx/982079).

## What performance data is available from the Raiders' 2026 training camp and preseason to assess Maxx Crosby's recovery from his recent knee surgery?

Trade Date | March 6, 2026 (traded from Las Vegas Raiders to Baltimore Ravens) [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/american-football/player/crosby-maxx/982079)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/nfl-the-biggest-and-most-thrilling-league-worldwide/thread/forum/212/thread_id/65685/post_id/311627/page/4023) |
Team as of August 6, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/american-football/player/crosby-maxx/982079) |
Return to Practice (Raiders' 2026 training camp) | Late July (full-team practice, no restrictions) [[^]](https://wtop.com/nfl/2026/07/red-jerseys-few-brakes-maxx-crosbys-return-puts-raiders-qbs-on-alert/)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49425032/las-vegas-raiders-training-camp-2026-intel-updates)[[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/training-camp-notebook-7-30-26-defensive-line-starts-applying-pressure-maxx-crosby-tonka-hemingway) |

**Maxx Crosby's recovery from knee surgery showed promising signs for 2026**

Maxx Crosby's recovery from knee surgery showed promising signs for 2026. His surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, confirmed in March 2026 that Crosby's rehabilitation from a significant meniscus tear was progressing on track for a full return to elite performance [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/breaking-news/article/maxx-crosbys-surgeon-says-pass-rusher-is-doing-very-well-in-rehab-from-surgery-after-ravens-pulled-out-of-trade-114502365.html). Reports from late July 2026 indicated Crosby was participating in the Raiders' training camp practices without restrictions, demonstrating elite pass rushing and run stopping capabilities [[^]](https://wtop.com/nfl/2026/07/red-jerseys-few-brakes-maxx-crosbys-return-puts-raiders-qbs-on-alert/)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49425032/las-vegas-raiders-training-camp-2026-intel-updates)[[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/training-camp-notebook-7-30-26-defensive-line-starts-applying-pressure-maxx-crosby-tonka-hemingway).

Despite practice reports, Crosby was traded to the Baltimore Ravens. Maxx Crosby was traded from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Baltimore Ravens on March 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/american-football/player/crosby-maxx/982079)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/nfl-the-biggest-and-most-thrilling-league-worldwide/thread/forum/212/thread_id/65685/post_id/311627/page/4023). Therefore, as of August 6, 2026, Maxx Crosby was officially a member of the Baltimore Ravens roster, not the Las Vegas Raiders [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/american-football/player/crosby-maxx/982079).

## What on-field performance metrics for the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half of the 2026 season could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade before the November deadline?

Potential Trade Trigger Record | 1-5 or 2-6 (first half of 2026 season) [[^]](https://nfltraderumors.co/schefter-maxx-crosby-trade-talks-could-heat-up-again-near-trade-deadline/)[[^]](https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/injury-maxx-crosby-trade-rumors-heating-up-nfc-contender/) |
Projected 2026 Team Rating | 8.76 (26th) [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-schedule-release-highlights-takeaways-playoff-paths-2026)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/2026-nfl-season-predictions-super-bowl-favorites)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-rookies-five-most-important-in-the-2026-season)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-qb-battles-who-has-the-edge-and-why-heading-into-training-camps-2026) |
2025 Season Record | 3-14 [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-schedule-release-highlights-takeaways-playoff-paths-2026)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/2026-nfl-season-predictions-super-bowl-favorites)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-rookies-five-most-important-in-the-2026-season)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-qb-battles-who-has-the-edge-and-why-heading-into-training-camps-2026) |

**Las Vegas Raiders' poor start could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade**

Las Vegas Raiders' poor start could trigger a Maxx Crosby trade. NFL insider Adam Schefter has indicated that a Maxx Crosby trade before the November 2026 deadline could be initiated if the Las Vegas Raiders achieve a challenging record in the first half of the season, specifically a 1-5 or 2-6 start [[^]](https://nfltraderumors.co/schefter-maxx-crosby-trade-talks-could-heat-up-again-near-trade-deadline/)[[^]](https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/injury-maxx-crosby-trade-rumors-heating-up-nfc-contender/). These poor on-field results would likely prompt the team to consider moving their valuable asset.

Overall team performance, not individual decline, would drive a trade. Key metrics that would likely lead to such a trade include the team's inability to compete effectively, a poor overall standing within the league, or limited development shown by key rookie players [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-schedule-release-highlights-takeaways-playoff-paths-2026)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/2026-nfl-season-predictions-super-bowl-favorites)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-rookies-five-most-important-in-the-2026-season)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-qb-battles-who-has-the-edge-and-why-heading-into-training-camps-2026). This consideration is rooted in the Raiders' challenging organizational outlook, as evidenced by a projected 2026 team rating of 8.76, placing them 26th in the league, and coming off a 3-14 record in the 2025 season [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-schedule-release-highlights-takeaways-playoff-paths-2026)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/2026-nfl-season-predictions-super-bowl-favorites)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-rookies-five-most-important-in-the-2026-season)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-qb-battles-who-has-the-edge-and-why-heading-into-training-camps-2026). Given Crosby's status as a valuable asset, any decision to trade him would be primarily influenced by the team's collective performance rather than any individual decline in his play [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-schedule-release-highlights-takeaways-playoff-paths-2026)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/2026-nfl-season-predictions-super-bowl-favorites)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-rookies-five-most-important-in-the-2026-season)[[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/nfl-qb-battles-who-has-the-edge-and-why-heading-into-training-camps-2026).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Maxx Crosby is a member of the Las Vegas Raiders and is expected to play for them in the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/maxx-crosby-lets-patience-take-the-lead-while-working-back-from-injury)[[^]](https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/03/31/klint-kubiak-discusses-raiders-quarterback-plans-maxx-crosbys-return-phoenix-roundtable/)[[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/raiders/raiders-owner-davis-relieved-to-have-crosby-back-3732074/)[[^]](https://www.nfl.com/news/maxx-crosby-focused-on-recovery-moving-on-with-raiders-after-nixed-trade-water-under-the-bridge).** He remains under contract with the Raiders for the 2026 season, with a base salary of **$30** million and a cap hit of **$35.79** million [[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29154/maxx-crosby/contract/cash)[[^]](https://overthecap.com/player/maxx-crosby/7897)[[^]](https://ftp.overthecap.com/player/maxx-crosby/7897).

**A proposed trade involving Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens was nullified in March 2026 after he failed a medical examination, resulting in his return to the Raiders [[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/biggest-news-from-the-first-days-of-nfl-free-agency)[[^]](https://www.sofascore.com/news/nfl-early-offseason-moves-that-could-loom-large-this-year).** Crosby has been recovering from offseason knee surgery and is expected to be ready for the early portion of the 2026 training camp [[^]](https://www.raiders.com/news/maxx-crosby-lets-patience-take-the-lead-while-working-back-from-injury)[[^]](https://www.profootballrumors.com/2026/06/teams-remain-interested-in-acquiring-raiders-de-maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://www.nfl.com/news/maxx-crosby-focused-on-recovery-moving-on-with-raiders-after-nixed-trade-water-under-the-bridge).

**Key takeaway.** While some reports indicate ongoing external interest in a potential trade, Raiders owner Mark Davis has publicly stated that he does not want to trade Crosby [[^]](https://www.profootballrumors.com/2026/06/teams-remain-interested-in-acquiring-raiders-de-maxx-crosby)[[^]](https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/raiders/raiders-owner-davis-relieved-to-have-crosby-back-3732074/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** September 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Maxx Crosby is a member of the Las Vegas Raiders and is expected to play for them in the 2026 season [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- He remains under contract with the Raiders for the 2026 season, with a base salary of **$30** million and a cap hit of **$35.79** million [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- A proposed trade involving Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens was nullified in March 2026 after he failed a medical examination, resulting in his return to the Raiders [^] [^] .
- Crosby has been recovering from offseason knee surgery and is expected to be ready for the early portion of the 2026 training camp [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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### Data Sources & Model Transparency

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**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 15 of 24 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

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