# France vs Spain: France Starters FRA vs ESP (Jul 14) Updated: July 14, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Soccer HTML: /markets/sports/soccer/france-vs-spain-france-starters/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Kylian Mbappe to start for France, with only minor residual uncertainty. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Kylian Mbappe, Dayot Upamecano, and Adrien Rabiot are expected starters for France.** - Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© is projected to start for France's semifinal match. - No major last-minute injuries or tactical shifts are identified for the team. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** price (87c) aligns with **87.1%** **model** **probability**; France shows stable starter projections for the semifinal. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 87.0% | 87.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 87.1% (Yes) - Market Probability: 87.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +0.1pp - Expected Return: +0.1% - R-Score: 0.01 - Total Volume: $36,901.2 - 24h Volume: $35,719.87 - Open Interest: $30,573.56 - Expiration: July 15, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market, tracking the probability of Lucas Digne starting for France, saw a dramatic repricing on July 13. The contract opened at a low 13.0% probability but spiked 80 percentage points to 93.0% in a single day. This indicates a sudden, high-impact event that fundamentally altered market expectations. The provided context does not identify a specific driver for this move, as it refers to a price spike in a separate market for a different player, Adrien Rabiot. Following the spike, the price has seen minor fluctuations, reaching a high of 98.0% before settling near the current 87.0%. Total volume of 220 contracts is moderate, with significant activity occurring after the price spike. Sample data shows 37 contracts traded around the 90.0% level on July 14, suggesting this was a key level where conviction was tested post-event. The price range between 87.0% and 93.0% now appears to be a consolidation zone. The market's behavior suggests an information-driven shock, with traders reacting to a perceived leak or training ground report. The current price level near 87.0% implies a high degree of confidence from the market that Digne will be in the starting lineup for the semi-final against Spain. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Manu Kone starts for France #### 📈 July 14, 2026: 48.0pp spike Price increased from 27.0% to 75.0% **What happened:** The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 48.0 percentage point price spike in the "Manu Kone starts for France" outcome on July 14, 2026. Reports indicate that Manu KonĂ© is expected to start on the bench for the France vs. Spain semifinal, with AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni anticipated to return to the starting lineup [[^]](https://football-italia.net/roma-star-kone-expecting-to-be-benched-france/)[[^]](https://bolavip.com/en/world-cup/didier-deschamps-faces-crucial-call-on-kone-and-tchouameni-before-world-cup-semifinal-vs-spain)[[^]](https://worldsoccertalk.com/world-cup/report-aurelien-tchouameni-set-to-start-for-france-vs-spain-leaving-manu-kone-on-bench/). The available sources contain no information regarding social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain a sudden increase in the probability of KonĂ© starting. Therefore, based on the given information, social media appears to be irrelevant in explaining this specific market movement. ### Outcome: Adrien Rabiot starts for France #### 📈 July 13, 2026: 86.0pp spike Price increased from 13.0% to 99.0% **What happened:** The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 86.0 percentage point spike in the "Adrien Rabiot starts for France" prediction market on July 13, 2026. Adrien Rabiot was widely projected to start for France in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal against Spain on July 14, 2026, based on multiple reports published or referring to that date [[^]](https://www.101greatgoals.com/match-previews/world-cup-matches/france-v-spain-preview-expected-line-ups-stats-stream-where-to-watch-world-cup/)[[^]](https://www.sportsgambler.com/betting-tips/football/france-vs-spain-prediction-lineups-odds-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-predicted-lineup-vs-spain-world-cup-semifinal-7-14-26). There is no information provided regarding specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors on July 13, 2026, that would explain a sudden confirmation or shift in his starting status. Therefore, social media was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even present as a relevant factor based on the given sources. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves "Yes" if Manu Kone is in France's official starting lineup and on the field when the France vs Spain game begins on July 14, 2026. It resolves "No" if he is replaced or withdrawn before kickoff, makes only a substitute appearance, or if the game does not occur before July 15, 2026. The outcome is verified by ESPN and FIFA, based on the lineup and players on the field at kickoff, and the market closes after the outcome or by July 15, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT. ## Market Discussion France and Spain are scheduled to meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup-men-france-vs-spain-jul-14-2026-game-boxscore-607931?tab=boxscore)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/soccer/worldcup/2026/07/10/france-vs-spain-world-cup-semifinal-time-date-how-to-watch/90880616007/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-world-cup-preview-predictions-lineups-7-14-26). Prediction market sentiment is divided, with some platforms favoring France, while others show concentrated capital flowing towards Spain as the favorite despite France being the narrow base case in some models [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com.se/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://win.gg/france-vs-spain-prediction-preview/). Trader discussions highlight France's attacking strength, particularly Kylian MbappĂ©, against Spain's defensive discipline, possession play, and the form of players like Lamine Yamal [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://stacker.news/items/1523201)[[^]](https://win.gg/france-vs-spain-prediction-preview/). ## What potential last-minute injuries or tactical shifts by Didier Deschamps pose the biggest risk to the expected French starting lineup against Spain? Identified last-minute risks | None specified by research [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/article/france-vs-spain-preview-predicted-lineups-team-news-tactical-analysis-2026-world-cup-semifinal-122319) | French tactical approach | 4-2-3-1 formation, established double-pivot system (Didier Deschamps) [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/article/france-vs-spain-preview-predicted-lineups-team-news-tactical-analysis-2026-world-cup-semifinal-122319)[[^]](https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/sports/didier-deschamps-isnt-changing-his-bold-france-idea-for-world-cup-semifinal/) | Kylian MbappĂ© fitness | 100% fit for semifinal (Didier Deschamps) [[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/soccer/articles/france_star_kylian_mbappe_100_entering_spain_match/s1_17184_44059275) | **No major last-minute injuries or tactical shifts identified for France** No major last-minute injuries or tactical shifts identified for France. Current research does not specify any potential last-minute injuries or significant tactical alterations by Didier Deschamps that pose a substantial risk to the expected French starting lineup against Spain. Didier Deschamps maintains his tactical formation; MbappĂ© confirmed fully fit. The head coach has publicly stated he will not deviate from his fundamental 4-2-3-1 tactical approach, which relies on his established double-pivot system [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/article/france-vs-spain-preview-predicted-lineups-team-news-tactical-analysis-2026-world-cup-semifinal-122319)[[^]](https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/sports/didier-deschamps-isnt-changing-his-bold-france-idea-for-world-cup-semifinal/). Furthermore, Kylian MbappĂ©, who had been managing an ankle issue, has been confirmed by Didier Deschamps as completely fit for the upcoming semifinal match [[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/soccer/articles/france_star_kylian_mbappe_100_entering_spain_match/s1_17184_44059275). TchouamĂ©ni's return is not a new injury risk or tactical change. While AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni is reportedly set to return to the starting lineup after recovering from a muscle injury, resulting in Manu KonĂ© moving to the bench, this particular adjustment is not considered a new injury risk or a shift in the overall tactical approach [[^]](https://worldsoccertalk.com/world-cup/report-aurelien-tchouameni-set-to-start-for-france-vs-spain-leaving-manu-kone-on-bench/). ## Based on France's performance in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals, which players have solidified their starting roles for the semi-final against Spain? Quarterfinal Match Result | France defeated Morocco 2-0 (July 9, 2026) [[^]](https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/world-cup/article/france-vs-morocco-live-score-commentary-quarter-finals-world-cup-2026-latest-news-dljxdfkqt) | Quarterfinal Forward Line | Kylian MbappĂ©, Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ©, Michael Olise, DĂ©sirĂ© DouĂ© [[^]](https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/world-cup/article/france-vs-morocco-live-score-commentary-quarter-finals-world-cup-2026-latest-news-dljxdfkqt) | Semifinal Team Status | Full strength (as of July 14, 2026) [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/7/14/kylian-is-fine-france-ready-full-strength-for-spain-world-cup-semifinal) | **France advanced to the semifinal with a decisive quarterfinal victory** France advanced to the semifinal with a decisive quarterfinal victory. On July 9, 2026, France defeated Morocco 2-0 in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinal, securing their place in the next round. The forward line featured prominent players such as Kylian MbappĂ©, Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ©, Michael Olise, and DĂ©sirĂ© DouĂ© during that quarterfinal match [[^]](https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/world-cup/article/france-vs-morocco-live-score-commentary-quarter-finals-world-cup-2026-latest-news-dljxdfkqt). France is at full strength, but starting roles remain unconfirmed. Ahead of their semifinal clash against Spain, France is reportedly at full strength as of July 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/7/14/kylian-is-fine-france-ready-full-strength-for-spain-world-cup-semifinal). However, the provided research does not explicitly specify which individual players have solidified their starting positions for the upcoming semifinal match. ## How do Ousmane Dembele and Marcus Thuram's performance metrics in the 2026 World Cup compare for the starting forward position alongside Kylian Mbappe? Match Date | July 14, 2026 [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/) | DembĂ©lĂ© Status | Expected to start on wing [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/) | Thuram Status | Not listed in projected starting XI [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/) | **Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© is projected to start for France in the 2026 World Cup semifinal** Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© is projected to start for France in the 2026 World Cup semifinal. For the match against Spain on July 14, DembĂ©lĂ© is expected to feature on the wing within a 4-2-3-1 formation. He is anticipated to play alongside Kylian MbappĂ©, with Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola also part of France's predicted attacking lineup for this fixture [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/). Conversely, Marcus Thuram is not listed among the projected starters for this specific semifinal encounter [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/). Performance metrics are unavailable, preventing a direct comparison between players. The provided research output does not contain specific performance metrics for either Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© or Marcus Thuram. Consequently, an assessment comparing their performance for a starting forward position, based solely on the available data, is not possible [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/). ## What is the consensus from French sports media on the likely starting midfield pairing of N'Golo Kante and Adrien Rabiot for the Spain match? Consensus on midfield pairing | No unified consensus among French sports media for France vs. Spain World Cup semifinal (French sports media) [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/) | Key players discussed for midfield | N'Golo KantĂ©, Adrien Rabiot, Manu KonĂ©, AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni (French sports media) [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://kathmandupost.com/football/2026/07/14/france-ready-to-fight-spain-for-midfield-control-in-world-cup-semi-final)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/) | Formation mentioned by some sources | 4-2-3-1 formation featuring Manu KonĂ© and Adrien Rabiot (French sports media) [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/) | **French sports media lacks consensus on KantĂ© and Rabiot's midfield pairing** French sports media lacks consensus on KantĂ© and Rabiot's midfield pairing. There is currently no unified view regarding the likely starting midfield combination of N'Golo KantĂ© and Adrien Rabiot for the France vs. Spain World Cup semifinal scheduled for July 14, 2026 [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/). Predictions and match previews from various French sports outlets present conflicting views on the midfield's composition ahead of this crucial match [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://kathmandupost.com/football/2026/07/14/france-ready-to-fight-spain-for-midfield-control-in-world-cup-semi-final). Predicted starting lineups offer several differing midfield combinations. Reports vary significantly, with some discussing the potential for N'Golo KantĂ© to either retain his position or be recalled to the starting XI [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://kathmandupost.com/football/2026/07/14/france-ready-to-fight-spain-for-midfield-control-in-world-cup-semi-final). Other sources anticipate a midfield combination that includes Manu KonĂ© alongside Adrien Rabiot [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://kathmandupost.com/football/2026/07/14/france-ready-to-fight-spain-for-midfield-control-in-world-cup-semi-final). Additionally, some reports suggest alternative pairings such as N'Golo KantĂ© with AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/). Certain media outlets also favor a 4-2-3-1 formation featuring Manu KonĂ© and Adrien Rabiot [[^]](https://worldcuplocaltime.com/match/france-spain-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/france-vs-spain-lineup-starting-11-world-cup-2026-semifinal/01a3934cb69db4808e95b00d)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/realmadridisinmyveinsaofficial/posts/-expected-starting-xi-of-france-against-spain-tomorrowtchouameni-is-expected-to-/1653468420112985/). ## How do Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate's defensive statistics in the 2026 World Cup compare, and which pairing is more effective against a possession-based team like Spain? Dayot Upamecano 2026 World Cup Appearances | 4 (France) [[^]](https://datasports.co/players/d-upamecano) | Dayot Upamecano 2026 World Cup Minutes | 346 (France) [[^]](https://datasports.co/players/d-upamecano) | France Probability vs Spain (Semifinal) | 55-60% [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://sailgp.com/prediction-markets/trending/best-world-cup-semi-final-prediction-markets-for-spain-v-france-07-14-2026)[[^]](https://vsin.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-prediction-2026-fifa-world-cup-picks/) | **Dayot Upamecano has significantly contributed to France's defense in the 2026 World Cup** Dayot Upamecano has significantly contributed to France's defense in the 2026 World Cup. He has played a notable role, making four appearances and totaling 346 minutes on the field [[^]](https://datasports.co/players/d-upamecano). His defensive contributions include strong performances, such as one match where he recorded four tackles (three won), four clearances, and four interceptions [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/dayot-upamecano-player). In another instance, he achieved two interceptions, six clearances, and one block [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/headlines/dayot-upamecano-news-six-clearances-in-win-521338). In contrast, Ibrahima KonatĂ© has seen limited action in the tournament, primarily serving as a substitute and not featuring in the quarterfinals [[^]](https://onthepitch.now/countries/fra/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-player-ratings-vs-morocco-7-9-26). Due to this difference in playing time, the provided information does not allow for a direct statistical comparison of his defensive contributions against Upamecano. Direct player comparison against possession-based teams is currently unavailable. The research does not offer specific insights into either player's effectiveness against a possession-based team like Spain [[^]](https://datasports.co/players/d-upamecano)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/dayot-upamecano-player)[[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/headlines/dayot-upamecano-news-six-clearances-in-win-521338)[[^]](https://onthepitch.now/countries/fra/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-player-ratings-vs-morocco-7-9-26). However, looking at the broader team context, prediction markets indicate France as a narrow favorite to advance against Spain in the July 14, 2026 semifinal. **Market**-implied probabilities for France range approximately from 55-**60%**, while Spain's probabilities are around 40-**45%** [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://sailgp.com/prediction-markets/trending/best-world-cup-semi-final-prediction-markets-for-spain-v-france-07-14-2026)[[^]](https://vsin.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-prediction-2026-fifa-world-cup-picks/). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** The 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final between France and Spain is scheduled for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM local time (3:00 PM ET) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas [[^]](https://www.fifa.com/en/match-centre/match/17/285023/289290/400021541)[[^]](https://www.fox.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/france-vs-spain-jul-14-2026)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup-men-france-vs-spain-jul-14-2026-game-boxscore-607931?tab=boxscore)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-world-cup-preview-predictions-lineups-7-14-26)[[^]](https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/france-vs-spain-prediction-kick-off-time-tv-live-stream-team-news-latest-h2h-results-odds-world-cup-2026-preview-b1289705.html)[[^]](https://insights.betfred.com/football/fifa-world-cup/france-vs-spain-predicted-lineups-team-news-tuesday-14-july-2026/). **Key player fitness updates are expected to influence market dynamics.** Kylian MbappĂ© (ankle) and Manu KonĂ© (knee) are expected to play, while AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni has returned to training after a thigh injury and is a likely starter [[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-world-cup-preview-predictions-lineups-7-14-26)[[^]](https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/france-vs-spain-prediction-kick-off-time-tv-live-stream-team-news-latest-h2h-results-odds-world-cup-2026-preview-b1289705.html)[[^]](https://insights.betfred.com/football/fifa-world-cup/france-vs-spain-predicted-lineups-team-news-tuesday-14-july-2026/)[[^]](https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2026/07/experts-release-france-vs-spain-predictions-after-kylian-mbappe-injury-update.html). France's predicted starting lineup is Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; TchouamĂ©ni (or KonĂ©), Rabiot; DembĂ©lĂ©, Olise, DouĂ©; MbappĂ© [[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-vs-spain-world-cup-preview-predictions-lineups-7-14-26)[[^]](https://www.si.com/soccer/france-predicted-lineup-vs-spain-world-cup-semifinal-7-14-26)[[^]](https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/france-vs-spain-prediction-kick-off-time-tv-live-stream-team-news-latest-h2h-results-odds-world-cup-2026-preview-b1289705.html)[[^]](https://insights.betfred.com/football/fifa-world-cup/france-vs-spain-predicted-lineups-team-news-tuesday-14-july-2026/). Late squad fitness disclosures are identified as primary **market**-moving catalysts [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://best-prediction-markets.co.uk/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://polymarket.com.se/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2026/07/experts-release-france-vs-spain-predictions-after-kylian-mbappe-injury-update.html). **Prediction market sentiment remains tightly contested.** Some markets favor Spain, citing **57.5%** on Polymarket, while others view the match as a near toss-up or slightly favor France [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://best-prediction-markets.co.uk/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://polymarket.com.se/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2026/07/experts-release-france-vs-spain-predictions-after-kylian-mbappe-injury-update.html). Tactical setups also represent a primary **market**-moving catalyst [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14/)[[^]](https://best-prediction-markets.co.uk/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://polymarket.com.se/event/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14)[[^]](https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2026/07/experts-release-france-vs-spain-predictions-after-kylian-mbappe-injury-update.html). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** July 15, 2026 - **Closes:** July 15, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - The 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final between France and Spain is scheduled for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM local time (3:00 PM ET) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . - Key player fitness updates are expected to influence **market** dynamics. - Kylian MbappĂ© (ankle) and Manu KonĂ© (knee) are expected to play, while AurĂ©lien TchouamĂ©ni has returned to training after a thigh injury and is a likely starter [^] [^] [^] [^] . - France's predicted starting lineup is Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; TchouamĂ©ni (or KonĂ©), Rabiot; DembĂ©lĂ©, Olise, DouĂ©; MbappĂ© [^] [^] [^] [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks](/markets/sports/aussie-rules/adelaide-crows-vs-hawthorn-hawks/) - [Djurgarden vs Sirius](/markets/sports/soccer/djurgarden-vs-sirius/) - [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXWCSTART-26JUL11ARGSUI-SUI-ZAMDOU23: NO (Jul 12, 2026) - KXWCSTART-26JUL11ARGSUI-SUI-YMVOGO12: NO (Jul 12, 2026) - KXWCSTART-26JUL11ARGSUI-SUI-SWIDME3: NO (Jul 12, 2026) - KXWCSTART-26JUL11ARGSUI-SUI-RVARGA17: NO (Jul 12, 2026) - KXWCSTART-26JUL11ARGSUI-SUI-RRODRI13: YES (Jul 12, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/france-vs-spain-france-starters If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.